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Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2021 1:15 pm
by Mike G
21re is a pretty smart but simple strategy.
You might think that
pythagorean previous year wins would be a better predictor than actual wins. And I don't recall "last year" doing this well previously, but it is what it is: momentum, team culture, coaching, luck, whatev.
The "dummy" entries are mostly thrown in so that none of us will have to be in the cellar, but we've been getting trounced by one of them.
Relative to our average predictions vs current projections, over- and under-achieving teams thus far:
Code: Select all
. overachieving underachieving
ovr tm avg cur ovr tm avg cur
18 GSW 43 61 -20 NOP 41 21
18 Cle 28 46 -16 Mil 54 38
15 Was 36 52 -12 LAL 47 35
10 Chi 44 54 -11 Atl 50 39
10 Mia 45 55 -10 Hou 26 17
10 LAC 42 52 -7 Det 27 21
+7 Cha 36 43 -6 Min 36 30
+5 OKC 23 29 -4 Dal 48 43
+5 Sac 36 41 -4 Phl 50 46
+5 Tor 37 42 -4 Mem 41 38
+4 Den 46 51 -3 Brk 52 49
+1 Ind 42 43 -3 Orl 23 20
-0 Uta 53 53 -2 Bos 46 44
-1 Phx 50 50 -2 NYK 44 42
-1 SAS 35 34 -2 Por 45 43
Notching down the "de-regression" improves the lot of us:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.74 8.5 lisp 7.63 9.6
Crow 6.93 9.2 bpmW 7.64 9.6
emin 6.99 9.3 trzu 7.65 9.4
avgA 7.21 9.2 2021 7.65 9.3
vegas 7.23 9.2 eWin 7.84 10.2
5.38 7.25 9.6 perW 7.91 10.4
shad 7.26 9.2 dtka 8.26 10.6
cali 7.36 9.2 4141 8.70 11.1
WShr 7.38 9.5
update Nov. 17
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.83 8.5 2021 7.68 9.4
Crow 7.03 9.2 lisp 7.74 9.6
emin 7.11 9.3 trzu 7.85 9.6
5.38 7.35 9.7 bpmW 7.89 9.7
vegas 7.36 9.3 eWin 8.04 10.1
shad 7.43 9.2 perW 8.06 10.4
avgA 7.44 9.2 dtka 8.38 10.6
WShr 7.45 9.6 4141 8.43 10.9
cali 7.57 9.3
update Nov 18:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.46 8.27 cali 7.55 9.18
emin 6.97 9.09 trzu 7.61 9.37
Crow 7.14 9.11 lisp 7.64 9.51
avgA 7.22 9.09 bpmW 7.71 9.55
5.38 7.25 9.55 eWin 7.85 10.01
vegas 7.26 9.14 perW 7.92 10.33
2021 7.36 9.16 4141 8.23 10.76
shad 7.36 9.10 dtka 8.42 10.55
WShr 7.37 9.56
update Nov 19:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.35 8.37 lisp 7.44 9.46
emin 6.93 8.90 trzu 7.47 9.24
vegas 6.94 8.96 2021 7.48 9.20
shad 7.01 8.94 WShr 7.50 9.52
avgA 7.04 9.01 bpmW 7.73 9.52
Crow 7.05 9.03 eWin 7.82 9.96
5.38 7.18 9.47 perW 7.90 10.31
cali 7.38 9.12 4141 8.18 10.87
. dtka 8.32 10.45
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:48 pm
by eminence
Damn you 21re, keeping me from my rightful glory.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:17 am
by Mike G
Now now, let's keep it civil. You know dummies can't respond.
More major shuffling:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.36 8.32 cali 7.20 8.86
vegas 6.64 8.83 lisp 7.30 9.24
shad 6.80 8.74 WShr 7.32 9.22
avgA 6.85 8.75 bpmW 7.44 9.31
Crow 6.86 8.82 eWin 7.61 9.72
emin 6.98 8.78 2021 7.63 9.29
5.38 7.05 9.17 perW 7.85 10.07
trzu 7.07 8.93 dtka 8.04 10.10
. 4141 8.28 10.72
Update Nov 21:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.67 8.50 cali 7.27 8.87
shad 6.80 8.76 WShr 7.34 9.28
vegas 6.88 8.96 bpmW 7.38 9.32
avgA 6.89 8.76 eWin 7.54 9.76
5.38 6.91 9.15 perW 7.75 10.12
trzu 6.96 8.86 2021 7.80 9.46
Crow 7.10 8.87 dtka 7.90 10.01
lisp 7.13 9.20 4141 8.36 10.86
emin 7.15 8.82
Nov 22:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
21re 6.93 8.64 cali 7.57 9.03
Crow 7.01 8.92 WShr 7.63 9.44
shad 7.02 8.85 bpmW 7.66 9.45
trzu 7.07 8.96 eWin 7.67 9.89
emin 7.12 8.84 2021 7.77 9.52
avgA 7.12 8.88 perW 7.84 10.25
5.38 7.14 9.32 dtka 8.01 10.14
vegas 7.18 9.03 4141 8.43 11.02
lisp 7.24 9.32
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:15 pm
by eminence
I'm hopeful we'll all catch those dummies in the end.
Thanks for keeping things updated!
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:15 am
by Mike G
Teams are falling in line.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.59 8.62 cali 7.23 8.76
shad 6.64 8.50 WShr 7.43 9.32
emin 6.83 8.48 bpmW 7.50 9.35
5.38 6.86 8.95 dtka 7.65 9.82
trzu 6.86 8.64 eWin 7.65 9.92
vegas 6.87 8.73 2021 7.73 9.23
avgA 6.89 8.65 perW 7.77 10.27
lisp 6.95 8.96 4141 8.54 11.17
21re 7.02 8.57
update 11.25 -- De-regressing the b-r.com projections only 18% now:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.28 8.10 cali 6.92 8.39
shad 6.36 7.94 WShr 7.04 8.83
emin 6.37 7.88 bpmW 7.09 8.74
trzu 6.40 8.11 eWin 7.14 9.29
avgA 6.52 8.07 perW 7.22 9.59
vegas 6.61 8.11 2021 7.29 8.98
21re 6.61 8.16 dtka 7.38 9.31
lisp 6.65 8.48 4141 7.99 10.75
5.38 6.72 8.55
Top 4 slots are actual apbr individual submissions!
update 11/27
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
emin 6.23 7.83 cali 7.01 8.50
Crow 6.35 8.10 bpmW 7.23 8.71
shad 6.42 8.05 eWin 7.24 9.34
trzu 6.65 8.26 WShr 7.28 8.76
avgA 6.66 8.12 perW 7.31 9.58
vegas 6.74 8.19 2021 7.42 9.07
21re 6.78 8.36 dtka 7.57 9.43
5.38 6.78 8.68 4141 8.26 10.97
lisp 6.80 8.67
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2021 9:51 pm
by Crow
Between Eminence's and my projections, the Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers and Blazers might provide the final decisive margin.
Between Shadow and I, it may be decided by Spurs, Kings, Lakers and Timberwolves.
Imo, even 1 MAE of best or Vegas is pretty good. 0.1 or 0.2 from lead is very good.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:57 am
by Mike G
Dubs are projecting to ~66 wins; b-r.com gives them a range from 77 down to 50. But it will take a disaster for them to drop below 53, which was emin's outlier guess; 46 is next best.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.38 8.12 cali 7.11 8.48
shad 6.52 8.08 eWin 7.25 9.31
emin 6.53 7.94 perW 7.33 9.57
21re 6.69 8.28 WShr 7.33 8.78
trzu 6.73 8.28 bpmW 7.34 8.72
avgA 6.76 8.14 2021 7.41 9.11
vegas 6.78 8.22 dtka 7.53 9.46
5.38 6.80 8.74 4141 8.03 10.82
lisp 6.91 8.70
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:45 pm
by Crow
Warriors great at shooting with a pretty balanced shot profile (more than just 3s). Great shot defense and defensive rebounding.
Great vet bench (of ring seekers on ring seeker pay).
3rd easiest schedule but that is a minor thing.
I do think they could get derailed by injury. Or just get beat in a tough series against right type of opponent.
But heavy favorite right now.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:56 am
by Mike G
Just 5 games last night, but wins by Mil, LAL, Mem, and Bos -- and losses for LAC, Tor, Ind -- helped most or all of us.
Only another W by GSW and L for Det worked against all.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
shad 6.24 7.99 cali 6.78 8.40
emin 6.29 7.82 eWin 6.96 9.42
Crow 6.34 8.06 WShr 6.97 8.76
trzu 6.48 8.20 bpmW 6.97 8.71
avgA 6.49 8.11 2021 7.14 9.01
vegas 6.50 8.15 perW 7.21 9.71
5.38 6.58 8.65 dtka 7.40 9.42
lisp 6.59 8.59 4141 8.23 11.03
21re 6.63 8.36
It may be time to ditch the
41-41 entry. Any suggestions whom to put in that slot?
update Nov 30:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 5.91 7.87 WShr 6.56 8.44
shad 6.02 7.80 21re 6.62 8.23
emin 6.06 7.57 bpmW 6.70 8.36
avgA 6.17 7.82 eWin 6.71 9.05
trzu 6.23 8.03 2021 6.97 9.01
vegas 6.32 7.97 perW 7.02 9.29
cali 6.36 8.09 dtka 7.09 9.14
lisp 6.46 8.43 4141 8.06 10.82
5.38 6.49 8.44
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:47 pm
by Crow
Tight race.
But yay.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:19 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
shad 5.89 7.50 WShr 6.32 8.21
Crow 5.92 7.68 lisp 6.34 8.17
emin 5.98 7.38 bpmW 6.42 8.05
avgA 6.02 7.56 21re 6.42 7.95
trzu 6.06 7.82 eWin 6.58 8.79
vegas 6.18 7.67 perW 6.84 9.07
5.38 6.22 8.20 2021 6.88 8.69
cali 6.23 7.81 dtka 6.98 8.92
. 4141 8.00 10.66
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:05 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G--what are you measuring against? The Basketball Reference projected win totals?
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:36 pm
by Mike G
Mike G--what are you measuring against? The Basketball Reference projected win totals?
Yes, almost. Earlier, they were heavily regressed toward .500; so I de-regressed them to more closely resemble their current Pythagorean performances, that is, SRS (from b-r.com) applied to future games.
Lately the b-r.com projections are not so different from the pythag, and I'm adjusting them by about 1/4 as much.
Somewhat related: I studied the last 2 years' standings and found that after 15 games, the current performances were closer to the ultimate W% than our averaged predictions. Now at ~20 games, those pre-season guesses have no bearing at all on where teams are gonna end up.
So are the Lakers really a 36-win team? They may end up better than that, or they may be worse. I think they will be closer to 36 than (our avg) 47.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:12 am
by eminence
Traditionally I've found teams and players to both stabilize pretty well by the quarter mark, so that makes sense to me. Obviously some outliers.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:59 pm
by Mike G
I don't normally update every day; but when I do, it's because there are big changes from yesterday. Again:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
avgA 5.71 7.61 5.38 6.17 8.37
shad 5.72 7.64 WShr 6.17 8.29
Crow 5.83 7.82 bpmW 6.23 8.07
trzu 5.92 7.87 eWin 6.29 8.75
cali 5.93 7.85 21re 6.41 7.92
vegas 6.05 7.81 perW 6.61 8.96
emin 6.10 7.61 dtka 6.81 8.99
lisp 6.13 8.20 2021 6.82 8.85
. 4141 7.79 10.49
Anyone on the left could take the lead overnight, apparently; or fall into the 2nd tier just as suddenly.
7th leader in 7 days.
update Dec 3, after a crazy night in the nba:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 5.66 7.82 WShr 6.38 8.42
cali 5.68 7.70 dtka 6.41 8.88
shad 5.73 7.66 21re 6.48 8.05
avgA 5.76 7.66 eWin 6.53 8.92
trzu 5.81 7.84 bpmW 6.68 8.31
lisp 5.95 8.09 2021 6.89 8.94
5.38 6.00 8.25 perW 6.98 9.13
emin 6.09 7.70 4141 7.63 10.61
vegas 6.19 7.92
Projections for OKC and Mem changed by +/- 5 wins last night.
update Dec 5:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
cali 5.58 7.62 dtka 6.39 8.74
Crow 5.61 7.74 21re 6.46 7.91
shad 5.72 7.63 WShr 6.52 8.34
avgA 5.74 7.54 bpmW 6.67 8.18
trzu 5.85 7.87 eWin 6.71 8.71
lisp 5.97 8.00 2021 6.77 8.99
emin 6.00 7.65 perW 6.92 8.86
5.38 6.07 8.18 4141 7.66 10.35
vegas 6.16 7.85
These are ranked by mean absolute error; by RMSE (squaring the errors, summing them, and taking the 1/2 root of that sum) avgA leads.
A number of entries lead at different exponents:
Code: Select all
exp: From To
Crow .10 - .85
cali .86 - 1.64
avgA 1.65 - 2.43
emin 2.44 - 3.33
21re 3.34 - 6.4
bpmW 6.5 - -etc
Crow dominates the low end by virtue of having many close guesses; a bad one (Cle) doesn't matter so much here.
High exponent leader is entirely the result of having the smallest worst guess: bpm's worst error is 20.1 for the Dubs. Everyone else has at least one bigger than that; and if the Cavs fade, this will change.