2016-17 Celtics

[JoshEngleman]

Just curious, what metric are you using for expected & actual wins (winshares, RPM wins, etc.)?

Super basic stuff. It's a 50/50 split of WS and BPM. I just take everything I can get from Basketball Reference. Obviously they aren't the best metrics, but it gets me 95% of the way to a good answer with very little work.

[shadow]

Thanks for the info.

[jgoldstein34]

I don't think Olynyk getting $15.8M is that crazy, the model looks at player style, age, position just as much as actual impact because that tracks more closely with actual salary. If we're basing salary only off actual expected wins added next year, my projection model has him as adding 3.5 wins next year, worth $12.9M. The thing is, that's just not how salary works (even though that's how it should work).

For example, Andrew Johnson's (@CountingBaskets) FA model has Olynk at $13.1M and Amir at $7.9M. Both our models give out the same amount in expected total guaranteed money so maybe mine is under-predicting total years for both, but it's well within reasonable approximation.

[shadow]

I still think the $/win estimates are being skewed by the huge leap in the salary cap last year. I would expect that to level off a bit once there is a greater sample of new contracts. Not to mention, teams aren't even obligated to spend up to the salary cap floor. The Sixers were using this workaround the past few years by acquiring dead weight contracts to meet the cap floor requirement without actually spending that amount. They were only obligated to pay players they acquired for the time they spent on the team, but the player's full annual contract value counted towards meeting the cap floor requirement. If teams continue to take advantage of that loophole, I don't believe the $/win will be nearly as high as you are projecting.

[JoshEngleman]

I still think the $/win estimates are being skewed by the huge leap in the salary cap last year. I would expect that to level off a bit once there is a greater sample of new contracts. Not to mention, teams aren't even obligated to spend up to the salary cap floor. The Sixers were using this workaround the past few years by acquiring dead weight contracts to meet the cap floor requirement without actually spending that amount. They were only obligated to pay players they acquired for the time they spent on the team, but the player's full annual contract value counted towards meeting the cap floor requirement. If teams continue to take advantage of that loophole, I don't believe the $/win will be nearly as high as you are projecting.

Just using my numbers from last year and the 5% increase to the cap for '17-18, we would see a jump from $3.5M spent to ~$3.7M for this year. I don't generally trust the owners to hand out good deals, so I fully expect something in the $3.9M neighborhood when the off-season is finished. This might be an interesting exercise. I'll track every contract signed this off-season, along with my expected wins & minutes played for 17-18. By this time next week, we'll have a pretty good idea of what it is.

[JoshEngleman]

Alright, I've loaded the "official" deals we have so far into a Google sheet. I'm on vacation right now, so I'm sure I'll miss one or two. The GP/MPG numbers can be tweaked. They were just a quick estimation on my part. As of now, we have 16 deals, 69.5 estimated wins and $221.7M in total AAV. That has the $/win set at $3.2M.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

[Crow]

Thanks for tracking.

[JoshEngleman]

We're now up to 23 deals, $2958M AAV and 95.2 wins in 17/18. That puts us at $3.1M per win.

[Crow]

Celtics paying Hayward $10 million per RPM point. At that rate. he is a pretty bad value, for the moment. Til a lot more players get $30-40 million per year deals.

[Crow]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/24 ... l-In-Trade

oooh... can the Celtics get another guy with a salary /RPM ratio above 10? gotta have more of those...

[Crow]

Unless IT gets better on RPM, his new deal would likely be at 15 mil or more to 1 RPM estimated point.

Not going to win a title with those values for stars.

[Rd11490]

I don't think Celtics could win a title with IT on anything more than his current deal (or in their starting lineup), he isn't going to age well and the money he is demanding is going to be franchise crippling.

As for your comments on they Hayward signing, i'm not sure what the opportunity cost is? If they don't spend the money this year, they lose it, and 30% is the market for this level of a player. Let's say they don't sign him, what do they do instead? Which contract that was signed this week do you think both fits the celtics needs and is a value add contract? Outside of a handful of superstars who are underpaid due to an artificial salary ceiling, high level players are always going to be overpaid.

[Crow]

Ah, they could spend on one or more guys with salary / positive rpm ratio of less than $10 mil to 1.

[Rd11490]

Here are current contracts this offseason with their RPM from last season (using that tableau page thats floating around). Of those, who should the celtics have offered that contract to accounting for both fit and the desire to take a step forward as a team?

Griffin is a health risk and not possible
Gallo is a health risk and probably won't be worth the contract by the end
Millsap won't be worth the contract by the end
Ingels won't be worth the contract by the end
George Hill is the health risk and redundant on the celtics
Lowrey is redundant and probably not possible
Curry and Durrant are not possible
Iggy is probably not possible nor worth it by end of contract
Johnson was unplayable in the playoff
Nene, Patterson and West would all provide diminishing returns You could spend the money on them, but they don't make your team significantly better and then use the left overs to sign another middle tier FA, but once again, diminishing returns.

[Crow]

Thanks for your list which shows Hayward as one of worst values amongst the positives.

Not worth it at end of contract could be said about many besides Ingles.

Johnson more playable in playoffs than Jaylen Brown.

Your list missed Redick, who would be worst value ratio, worse than cult favorite Dion Waiters?

None of these but instead someone still unsigned was an option, as was trade or wait til next season or next summer. Or keep Olynyk or whoever they are about to trade.

Patterson is the great value on the list, regular season. Could take and trade later or just use better, more appropriately.