2016-17 Celtics

[Crow]

What do you expect from them? Near 50 wins (plus or minus a few)? Above 55 and movement into second round? More than that?

(I have offered a couple of team specific threads. Sometimes separation is helpful, especially if the discussion is detailed and sustained. Similar talk could appear the 2016-17 Team Win Projection / Discussion thread. Use whichever you prefer. Later merger is an option.)

[Crow]

On surface, Horford instead of Sullinger suggests more 3 ptas, less ftas, less assists. Possibly less rebounds, especially offensive rebounds.

[Jdb26]

Around 50 wins, 2-4 seed.

[Crow]

Yeah, I am around there too. At the moment I'd guess small improvement (or none) is more likely than medium or large. With a greater than normal chance of being upset in first round. That could change with more study, but I doubt it.

[Crow]

Jaylen Brown to play some PF? Could be interesting. Interesting way to get him closer to basket. And minimize poor outside shooting, turnover issues and pressure on modest passing skills.

[Dr Positivity]

Positives

- Horford is an upgrade on Sullinger both in caliber of play and he did it in 33% more minutes per game than him last year

- Reasonably young core who can improve. Smart, Crowder, Bradley combined for 32.6% from 3 last year, wouldn't be that shocking if they figured that skill out more. Olynyk has played 3 seasons and has time to reach another level. Even Isaiah isn't necessarily capped out.

Negatives

- Jaylen Brown could be the worst thing for their W total this year, as his inefficiency and turnover problems from college make him a #1 Mudiay candidate for this class, but could get a 20 minute a game role for developmental reasons. After his summer league performance Terry Rozier could also find himself in the rotation with a low floor of value.

- Amir had 2nd best BPM and WS/48 on the team last year, as he is going into his 12th season I'm not sure how much longer he can keep this up, especially if Horford takes some of his role

[Crow]

Different ways to look at Horford signing. The con side includes turning 30 while getting mega deal for 4 years, making it out of 2nd round only once in 9 years, being a center at a time when their perceived value is probably declining, an RPM estimate that is only 29th best (and much lower in 2 previous seasons), a 30% career falloff in playoff ws/48 compared to regular season, (BPM and PER only fell a typical 10% but still...), possibly less likely to retain Amir Johnson next summer, career low offensive rebound rate last season & near it on defensive rebound rate and career low free throw rate that has fallen to barely more than half his modest career rate, a rate similar to guards who rarely drive. Team was already 20th on ft rate and switching Horford in and Sullinger out applies some downward pressure.

Does a 30 year old center superstar role player under contract til he is nearly 34 (or fully 34 if they go deep in last season playoffs) fit with a young team that could stay youngish or even get younger if a large share of the draft treasure chest are kept / used? Maybe. But probably not.

[Crow]

2-1 so far. Almost all due to being #1 on own eFG% of all things. 20th or worse on 6 factors at the moment.

[Crow]

Horford era so far: Passing & shooting up, rebounding and defense down. About 4 point improvement in offensive efficiency (probably won't last) and 5 pt drop in defensive efficiency (probably won't last in full measure).

[Crow]

163 lineups used in 10 games. 36% of them are net pts positive, 64% neutral or negative. 6 of top 10 most used are good, 4 bad. Typical coaching mish-mash. Only 6 lineups used over 10 minutes for season or 1 minute per game. 67% of total time given to dink lineups used less than that. "Let's try everything a little." So injuries aside (normal NBA reality) doesn't seem like great insight yet into what would work best amongst those which are possible.

[Crow]

Grouping lineup data, the most used lineup is plus 11 total in 48 minutes. #2-5 most used a lesser but acceptable plus 9 in 99 minutes. #6-10 is bad though, -24 in 50 minutes. #11-20 okay plus 1 in 64 minutes All the rest plus 8 in 267 minutes.

Big picture I'd think Stevens would want to up the minutes of his most used / best lineups. Outside his top 5 most used lineups (getting less than 30% of total time, far below what is possible) he is getting an average performance of -2.3 pts per 48 minutes on over 70% of total time, which by itself would be good for about a 35-40% win rate at best.

[Crow]

Marcus Smart is off to a very weak start by box score metrics. Always heavy at 3 pt shots and not good at it; now no longer getting to the line. I'd cut his minutes & shots or trade him for a decent offer. -1 on RPM isn't that bad but it is down from last season and not what you'd hope for in a high draft pick beginning year 3. Certainly not looking forward to his likely big next contract request.

Play D Jackson. Why the heck haven't they, to find out more about that option?

[Rd11490]

D Jackson can't defend D-League players, he'd doesn't stand a chance against nba quality players. He has all the physical tools to be a good defender (wingspan, latteral quickness, etc) but it has never translated on the court (in college or the D-league). He's turning into this year's micky, puts up big numbers in blow outs, but would suck if he ever got onto the floor when it matters.

If you look at Smart, he's 0-10 on pull ups this year, and 14.4% of his threes are when the shot clock is running out. He's 35.3% on catch-and-shoot threes. I'd prefer his minutes stayed as they and team just stops letting him take pull up threes. Even if you did take away his minutes, who would you give them to?

ht SpellStiemsmaRight on /r/bostonceltics for the smart stats

[Crow]

Defensive win shares has Smart as average. DRPM slightly better than average. Thomas below average on DWS, way below average on DRPM. Rozier average on DWS, below average on DRPM. So few NBA minutes can't tell on Jackson but right now he is between Thomas and Rozier on defensive estimates. His competition is not stellar on D. I'd get him 100 minutes in next few weeks and find out. Wasn't aware he was bad on defense in d-league but that is not that unusual and doesn't totally rule hin out imo. A player is a combination of offense, defense, own production, teammate impacts and overall lineup performance. They are not going well enough to take him out of consideration. I'd take most of the minutes from Smart. He has been substandard from the jump this season and has yet to deliver on his hype and draft pick #.

[Crow]

256 lineups used in 20 games. Net positive lineups have crept up from 36% to 37.5%. Could be fairly random.

Stevens' top 5 most used have slipped to -1 for minutes used. Making the right big picks with their suite of lineup analysis??

6 lineups used more than a whopping 1 minute per game. Only 2 over 2 minutes per game. Learned anything yet? Almost nothing- beyond that the starting lineup is good- with even a stretched level of guessed significance and at this rate probably only one other lineup will reach the 200 minute level of credibility by season's end. So almost everything will remain a pretty low information guess. Great way to get playoff surprises.