2022-23 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

On avg, entry errors increased by .28 overnight.

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.   avg err   rmse    r^2          avg err   rmse    r^2
KPel   4.94   6.31   .478      emin   6.28   7.83   .418
DRKO   5.51   6.81   .476      538E   6.63   8.76   .262
22Re   5.61   7.30   .285      TmRk   6.77   8.24   .402
ncs.   5.63   6.95   .458      4141   6.85   8.53   
LEBR   5.66   6.83   .489      BIPM   6.87   8.09   .584
dtka   5.84   6.90   .514     vegas   6.87   8.37   .406
Crow   5.85   7.17   .514      538R   6.88   8.02   .419
trzu   5.92   7.32   .510      nuFi   7.19   8.55   .386
avg.   5.96   7.01   .490      MPra   7.27   8.77   .446
vzro   6.03   7.20   .427      AnBa   7.55   8.73   .420
EBPI   6.16   7.32   .440      EExp   7.61   8.93   .364

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

Anatomy of a bad night: 10 games, 7 of which featured an overachieving team vs an under (relative to most predictions here).

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badbad    goodbad  goodgood
Det>Cha   NYK>Chi   Mia>OKC
Ind>GSW   Den>Was
Orl>Atl   LAC>Min
Sac>Tor 
Por>SAS
Cle>Dal

Not everyone would agree on every good/bad, of course. Dummies 4141 and 22Re are fine with it; and the leader, mostly unscathed, has his biggest lead so far.

[Crow]

Fwiw, I appear to be tied for 2nd highest / best on r2.

[Mike G]

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.   avg err   rmse    r^2          avg err   rmse    r^2
KPel   4.95   6.40   .473      538E   6.61   8.81   .261
DRKO   5.54   6.81   .480      TmRk   6.77   8.19   .412
22Re   5.60   7.35   .289      538R   6.85   8.06   .417
ncs.   5.63   6.91   .469     vegas   6.85   8.32   .415
dtka   5.77   6.77   .532      4141   6.95   8.63   
trzu   5.78   7.22   .523      MPra   6.99   8.56   .470
Crow   5.81   7.12   .522      BIPM   7.08   8.12   .579
LEBR   5.82   6.89   .485      nuFi   7.21   8.59   .384
avg.   5.89   6.98   .496      AnBa   7.50   8.69   .427
vzro   6.08   7.21   .430      EExp   7.64   8.93   .366
EBPI   6.08   7.34   .441      2022   8.52   9.91   .289
emin   6.22   7.80   .426               

[Crow]

0.21 behind 3rd for me.

[Mike G]

Does 4th out of 6 somehow feel better than 6 out of 19?

[Crow]

4 out of 6 individuals who directly entered here doesn't sound like that much, except that 3 are top 6.

7 out of 23 total tracked is not bad, though I am often higher. Recent gains are encouraging and notable to me. Making use of the tracking data.

Lots of time left.

[Crow]

A link to the full projection table at least once (if convenient) would provide easier awareness of why / where leads and deficits are for the leaders and beyond.

[Mike G]

Is this readable?

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tm   12-18  538R 538E emin ncs EExp EBPI vegas dtka trzu vzro Crow TmRk DRKO nuFi MPra AnBa LEBR BIPM KPe
Atl   40.1   51   44   44   45   46   50   46   50   48   44   47   45   45   44   46   47   45   50   46
Bos   56.5   57   56   56   57   54   57   53   55   57   58   53   53   57   56   49   52   61   62   54
Brk   46.4   45   43   51   47   40   47   50   44   47   42   44   50   46   52   44   48   40   58   46
Cha   23.4   41   39   32   32   38   42   33   33   32   39   30   35   34   39   25   37   35   30   41
Chi   38.5   35   35   35   41   44   36   42   38   38   37   40   42   38   43   34   44   41   40   38

Cle   52.8   44   39   50   43   45   46   47   46   48   48   47   47   44   43   48   46   46   43   43
Det   27.2   23   29   27   27   28   24   29   24   24   31   23   30   24   24   24   27   25   19   26
Ind   37.9   35   30   33   34   23   32   22   31   28   32   28   24   33   28   24   23   32   32   38
Mia   38.9   51   52   48   51   51   45   48   47   50   49   50   48   46   50   52   49   50   45   46
Mil   52.3   49   49   55   48   54   48   52   52   50   52   49   53   50   54   51   52   54   63   50

tm   12-18  538R 538E emin ncs EExp EBPI vegas dtka trzu vzro Crow TmRk DRKO nuFi MPra AnBa LEBR BIPM KPe
NYK   45.8   40   42   36   43   39   36   38   43   42   43   44   38   40   41   42   40   42   38   42
Orl   31.1   23   27   28   28   23   25   27   26   28   26   28   27   29   21   36   25   30   24   31
Phl   46.3   50   49   52   52   50   56   51   53   54   51   51   50   53   49   57   51   49   49   48
Tor   40.3   50   46   40   49   47   42   47   48   50   44   52   46   46   44   50   48   49   45   47
Was   32.6   32   34   34   37   34   39   35   38   33   40   30   35   34   35   33   40   41   39   40

Dal   45.2   50   51   44   47   49   50   48   46   47   46   46   48   47   47   47   50   45   46   43
Den   44.1   54   43   51   47   53   47   52   49   49   48   53   51   47   48   58   52   48   53   48
GSW   40.6   49   57   52   44   55   49   52   47   50   47   51   51   50   53   56   52   44   43   42
Hou   29.2   19   26   24   27   22   25   23   20   23   18   27   23   30   18   20   19   23   13   27
LAC   40.6   47   43   49   45   50   42   51   45   49   45   51   52   48   53   52   51   40   50   44

tm   12-18  538R 538E emin ncs EExp EBPI vegas dtka trzu vzro Crow TmRk DRKO nuFi MPra AnBa LEBR BIPM KPe
LAL   36.9   32   34   42   39   42   41   44   43   37   43   35   44   41   47   41   44   42   40   37
Mem   51.4   52   51   47   47   51   47   48   50   48   47   52   49   48   49   53   50   45   47   46
Min   36.5   47   45   53   47   49   46   48   49   50   45   47   49   50   46   47   48   49   44   46
NOP   51.7   42   44   43   46   43   45   45   46   48   44   49   45   47   43   48   45   50   55   48
OKC   35.9   24   27   23   25   25   23   24   26   24   26   27   24   26   22   23   18   27   22   27

Phx   49.9   49   49   50   54   56   50   52   50   52   51   50   52   47   51   49   52   50   52   49
Por   44.1   38   23   40   28   35   32   40   36   37   33   33   39   36   41   37   38   33   35   37
Sac   46.8   33   32   32   37   34   37   34   37   37   32   39   34   37   31   39   37   36   39   37
SAS   21.9   30   40   31   31   24   28   22   26   25   33   25   22   29   31   19   16   29   24   31
Uta   44.8   39   46   28   35   26   42   23   32   29   39   29   24   29   31   26   29   32   30   35

Rounding to integers shouldn't have much effect, I think.

[Crow]

Yes it is workable readable, thanks.



Compared to Pelton, I have a huge advantage currently on Hornets, moderate on Cavs. And Griz, Spurs and Wizards. He has huge advantage on Pacers and moderate on Heat. Nuggets, Raptors, Warriors, Jazz and currently Clippers, though that one is changing.

[Mike G]

A bad night for most but not all.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2          avg err   rmse   r^2
KPel   4.77   6.31   .48      TmRk   6.72   8.26   .40
dtka   5.68   6.73   .54      538E   6.75   8.95   .24
DRKO   5.69   6.86   .47     vegas   6.82   8.41   .40
Crow   5.71   7.17   .52      538R   6.86   8.05   .42
ncs.   5.75   6.94   .46      MPra   6.90   8.56   .47
trzu   5.82   7.23   .52      4141   6.98   8.59   
LEBR   5.86   6.93   .48      BIPM   7.05   8.04   .59
avg.   5.87   7.02   .49      nuFi   7.07   8.65   .38
22Re   5.91   7.34   .29      AnBa   7.48   8.82   .41
EBPI   6.05   7.41   .43      EExp   7.64   9.08   .35
emin   6.14   7.69   .44      2022   8.38   9.94   .29
vzro   6.22   7.19   .43               

Pelton's lead is perhaps the biggest ever seen here, at this point in the season.

Update Dec.24

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2           avg err   rmse   r^2
KPel   4.80   6.11   .515      TmRk   6.60   8.26   .404
Crow   5.55   7.05   .530      538R   6.62   7.81   .447
DRKO   5.57   6.79   .483      MPra   6.64   8.49   .479
dtka   5.66   6.64   .548      538E   6.65   8.84   .258
ncs.   5.72   6.83   .479     vegas   6.67   8.40   .406
trzu   5.81   7.17   .529      4141   6.87   8.64   
avg.   5.86   6.94   .502      BIPM   6.89   7.85   .609
LEBR   5.87   6.88   .486      nuFi   6.93   8.65   .378
EBPI   5.98   7.23   .455      AnBa   7.43   8.72   .423
22Re   5.98   7.29   .299      EExp   7.69   9.11   .346
vzro   6.25   7.21   .432      2022   8.07   9.82   .299
emin   6.25   7.76   .430               

[Crow]

I'm in 4th place now and 0.03 behind second overall by average error. I feel good about possibility of getting to 2nd.

Fwiw, Pelton's entry was not a self entry in the contest but rather a pulled in by other, outside reference. So was DARKO. Dtka is the current leader of the official contest, by average error.

By R2, I am tied for 3rd and Pelton is tied for 6th.

[Crow]

1 team over 70% win rate and 7 more over 60%. Same as conclusion of last season except the top 1 is 7 percentage points lower (or 10% lower). I'd expect some increase in distribution spread.

I had 9 over 60% and none over 70%. Pelton, just 2 over 60%.

6 with 28 wins or less last season. 1 projected 6 to do that this season. Pelton just 3.

Long way from the final results.

[Crow]

Last season at this date there were fewer fairly strong records but more of the higher ones. Fewer poor records. Both expanded in frequency by the end of the season. If that happens, tightly regressed prediction sets will probably see increasing errors relative to less regressed ones. If the best don't get much better (and the worst worse) that could mitigate the impact of expected quantity of strong & weak teams.

Too early to say for sure but I am expecting these trends will generally help me comparatively.

[Crow]

I am now the leader in the APBRmetrics contest by average error, 2nd overall. Pelton's lead over me falls by .19 in last 2 days to .75.

(I was 2nd, now currently 1st in a different, outside contest on Western Conference record rank with 55 contestants.)

[Crow]

Pacers 5W-8L most recently with a pretty rough schedule in next 10 days.

Wizards continue to crash. I am still bullish on the Griz. BRef currently project 51.7 to my 52 and Pelton's 47. 2 straight wins for Raptors help.