Rookies 2024

[Mike G]

Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb.

I thought he looked and moved like a much taller George Gervin. The Ice Man was 6-7 and 180; so if he was 28 lb lighter, then yeah.

Also worry he's just a Dillon Brooks or Pat Beverley undercut from being out of commission.

After 2-3 games, just 16 rookies have played more than 10 minutes total.
Here they are ranked by the sum of their productions (minus TO) per 36 minutes (creatively called xyz).
Categories are per game averages.

Code: Select all

xyz     rookies         tm   mpg   Pts   Reb   Ast  Stl  Blk   TO
37.3   Wembanyama      SAS   27   18.0   8.5   1.5  2.5  2.0   4.5
36.0   Chet Holmgren   OKC   28   13.5   8.5   2.5  1.0  3.5   1.0
29.6   Sasha Vezenkov  Sac   14    9.0   1.5    .0  1.0   .0    .0
29.3   Dereck Lively   Dal   24   12.5   6.0    .5   .5  1.0   1.0
29.2   Keyonte George  Uta   19    9.3   4.0   3.3   .3   .0   1.3

27.0   Ausar Thompson  Det   29    6.3  10.7   4.7   .3  2.3   2.3
25.6   Cason Wallace   OKC   19   11.0   2.0    .5   .0   .5    .5
25.5   Marcus Sasser   Det    8    3.3   2.0   1.0   .0   .0    .7
25.4   Brandon Miller  Cha   29   15.0   4.5   2.0   .5   .5   2.0
24.0   Jordan Hawkins  NOP   13    6.0   2.0   1.5   .0   .0    .5

xyz     rookies         tm   mpg   Pts   Reb   Ast  Stl  Blk   TO
20.1   Amen Thompson   Hou   17    6.0   3.0   2.5   .0   .5   2.5
20.0   Gradey Dick     Tor   12    5.3   1.0    .7   .0   .0    .3
18.5   Toumani Camara  Por   19    4.5   3.0   2.0   .0   .5    .0
17.2   Jaime Jaquez    Mia   15    4.3   2.3   1.7   .7   .0   1.7
13.0  Scoot Henderson  Por   30    9.0   3.0   3.0   .5   .0   4.5
10.7  Bilal Coulibaly  Was   18    1.5   2.5   1.5   .0  2.0   2.0

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... okies.html

[Crow]

Henderson had a -15 BPM as of yesterday.

[Mike G]

Henderson had a -15 BPM as of yesterday.

Yeah, dead last in the league. Apparently 4.5 TO/G will do that; Wemby is 63rd from the bottom (-4.6) of 212 who qualify, and 50th-worst WS/48.
Scoot is also last in ws/48.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

[Crow]

"Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb."

Is there a formula for this? Height alone wouldn't suggest this ratio.

[DarkStar48]

Henderson had a -15 BPM as of yesterday.

Yeah, dead last in the league. Apparently 4.5 TO/G will do that; Wemby is 63rd from the bottom (-4.6) of 212 who qualify, and 50th-worst WS/48.
Scoot is also last in ws/48.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

The most prominent issues I have seen with Wembanyama these first 2 games is the inconsistency offensively both within and across games, especially with regard to ball-handling with ~6.0 TO per 36 min.

[Mike G]

"Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb."

Is there a formula for this? Height alone wouldn't suggest this ratio.

Yes; we are 3-dimensional, so it's (72/88)^3*209 -- converted to inches.

I don't always trust the player weights shown at b-r.com, but when I do, it's for younger players.
LeBron is shown at 6-9 and 250, which gives him a Kyrie-esque (6-2 and 195) physique. Maybe?

[DSMok1]

"Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb."

Is there a formula for this? Height alone wouldn't suggest this ratio.

Yes; we are 3-dimensional, so it's (72/88)^3*209

Weight is not proportional to height cubed in humans. I agree he is quite light. But the best fit exponent within the general population is actually close to 2 (actually below 2.0 for a given gender/age/ethnicity cohort.)

[Mike G]

The most prominent issues I have seen with Wembanyama these first 2 games is the inconsistency offensively both within and across games, especially with regard to ball-handling with ~6.0 TO per 36 min.

His numbers plunged with a terrible outing last night; a 40 point loss to the Clipps.
Bright side is on-court vs off:

Code: Select all

.    on court    off court
Opp  Min   +/-    min  +/-
Dal   23    0     25   -7
Hou   31    9     22   -5
LAC   26  -14     22  -26

Extrapolate those off-court numbers to 48 min. and the team loses by 13, 11, 79!

[Mike G]

Weight is not proportional to height cubed in humans. I agree he is quite light. But the best fit exponent within the general population is actually close to 2 (actually below 2.0 for a given gender/age/ethnicity cohort.)

I was doing straight proportions, and I think you are referring to population averages; percentiles.
Ralph Sampson, also 7-4, would have to lose 20 lb to look like Wemby. His nickname was "Stick".

[DSMok1]

The most prominent issues I have seen with Wembanyama these first 2 games is the inconsistency offensively both within and across games, especially with regard to ball-handling with ~6.0 TO per 36 min.

His numbers plunged with a terrible outing last night; a 40 point loss to the Clipps.
Bright side is on-court vs off:

Code: Select all

.    on court    off court
Opp  Min   +/-    min  +/-
Dal   23    0     25   -7
Hou   31    9     22   -5
LAC   26  -14     22  -26

Extrapolate those off-court numbers to 48 min. and the team loses by 13, 11, 79!

Wembanyama reminds me of rookie KD--tremendous talent evident but inconsistent results. If healthy, he should mature like KD did. He also has better defensive skills and instincts than KD did; that side of the ball he should have good impact very soon if not already.

[Mike G]

Some mo'betta stats.
PER and BPM have been converted roughly to 'wins/48 min' and averaged with WS/48.
After 2-3 games:

Code: Select all

xyz     rookie        pick   tm   min   PER   ws/48   BPM   xyzW
.204   Cason Wallace   10   OKC   60   22.2   .247    4.8    .25
.195   Chet Holmgren    2*  OKC   82   23.2   .217    4.7    .33
.182   Dereck Lively   12   Dal   48   24.7   .263    0.4    .18
.170   Sasha Vezenkov  57** Sac   46   21.1   .170    4.1    .16
.101   Keyonte George  16   Uta   58   17.6   .080    0.3    .12

.089   Brandon Miller   2   Cha   58   13.0   .106   -0.8    .11
.084   Gradey Dick     13   Tor   36   11.8   .159   -3.3    .06
.071   Ausar Thompson   5   Det   88   11.0   .083   -1.5    .13
.013   Jaime Jaquez    18   Mia   46    9.3   .013   -5.4    .01
.007   Toumani Camara  52   Por   66    9.0  -.019   -4.7    .01

xyz     rookie        pick   tm   min   PER   ws/48   BPM   xyzW
-.013  Wembanyama       1   SAS   81   13.8  -.069   -6.8   -.02
-.039  Amen Thompson    4   Hou   54    7.7  -.074   -7.8   -.04
-.091  Bilal Coulibali  7   Was   37    1.2  -.137   -9.6   -.07
-.189  Scoot Henderson  3   Por   87   -2.0  -.248  -16.4   -.34

* - Holmgren was drafted last year but didn't play.
** - Drafted by the Nets in 2017, Vezenkov is the first player from Cyprus in NBA history. At 28, he's the 2nd-oldest rookie in the league.

The West has the top 5 rookies in the early going. Top 2 with the same team.

[Crow]

Some of my rookie comments on twitter:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1719 ... 09247?s=20

[Mike G]

Wembanyama reminds me of rookie KD--tremendous talent evident but inconsistent results. ..

Five games isn't much. But:

Code: Select all

gm 1-5  mpg  TS%  eFG%  Reb%  Ast%   Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%  ORt  DRt
Durant  35  .499  .461   8.1  13.0   1.3   1.4   13.1   30.6   93  108
Wemby   29  .589  .553  16.4   9.1   2.3   7.2   19.4   32.1   98  110

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... nced/2008/

That final Sonics team was pretty terrible. KD's running mates were Earl Watson (PG), Jeff Green (F), Nick Collison (F-C), Damien Wilkins (F-G), Chris Wilcox (PF), Johan Petro (C).
And somehow, KD's on-off was worst on the team. He played 94% at SG.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... ayoffs_pbp

[Mike G]

eWins projected to the full season from minutes thus far.
Season 24% complete, rookies total 53 projected eWins; 36 of these in the West.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
9.7   Chet Holmgren  OKC   30  .640   21.9   9.4   2.7   1.2   2.3  2.7   1.90
7.5   V Wembanyama   SAS   30  .521   17.9  11.9   2.3   1.7   4.2  3.3   1.55
4.6  Ausar Thompson  Det   28  .497   10.7  11.8   2.6   1.3   2.7  1.9    .95
4.1   Dereck Lively  Dal   25  .705   12.3  10.9   1.4   1.0   1.6  2.2   1.06
3.9   Jaime Jaquez   Mia   27  .605   15.1   5.4   2.9   1.5   1.9   .3    .85

2.8  Jordan Hawkins  NOP   28  .553   14.6   4.8   1.9    .6   1.3   .0    .59
2.4   Marcus Sasser  Det   19  .570   13.6   3.7   4.1   1.4   1.5   .3    .76
2.3  Brandon Miller  Cha   31  .550   13.3   4.7   1.7    .7   1.4   .6    .48
2.1   Cason Wallace  OKC   22  .721   13.4   3.7   1.9    .9    .9   .6    .57
1.9  Keyonte George  Uta   26  .478   11.2   4.6   5.5    .7   3.0   .1    .42

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.8   B Podziemski   GSW   19  .564   12.3   7.9   3.5    .9   1.9   .3    .81
1.8   Craig Porter   Cle   14  .604   18.1   4.5   4.8   1.4   2.7  1.0   1.16
1.2  Sasha Vezenkov  Sac   15  .566   12.7   5.7    .5   1.0    .8   .8    .57
1.1   Duop Reath     Por   14  .557   16.2   4.7   2.3   1.1   1.8   .7    .81
.9   Bilal Coulibaly Was   26  .617    9.4   4.8   1.6   1.4   1.9  1.0    .21
.9  Julian Strawther Den   13  .500   12.1   3.4   2.2    .7    .5   .8    .47
.7   Toumani Camara  Por   25  .506    7.7   6.0   1.3   1.4   1.5   .9    .16

[Crow]

Wembanyama still negative on BPM and has not made enough recent progress to overcome that. 27% from 3 for season reinforces a najor concern I had before and at draft. Slightly below league average shot frequency at rim and just slightly above average ft rate. Efg% and ts% both greatly below league average.

Maybe someone has access to / awareness of his "shot quality" number? I can say he shoots 46% of time in mid-range compared to league average 37% and that is notably weak from longer mid-range.