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Rookies 2024
Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2023 2:23 pm
by Mike G
Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb.
I thought he looked and moved like a much taller George Gervin. The Ice Man was 6-7 and 180; so if he was 28 lb lighter, then yeah.
Also worry he's just a Dillon Brooks or Pat Beverley undercut from being out of commission.
After 2-3 games, just 16 rookies have played more than 10 minutes total.
Here they are ranked by the sum of their productions (minus TO) per 36 minutes (creatively called xyz).
Categories are
per game averages.
Code: Select all
xyz rookies tm mpg Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
37.3 Wembanyama SAS 27 18.0 8.5 1.5 2.5 2.0 4.5
36.0 Chet Holmgren OKC 28 13.5 8.5 2.5 1.0 3.5 1.0
29.6 Sasha Vezenkov Sac 14 9.0 1.5 .0 1.0 .0 .0
29.3 Dereck Lively Dal 24 12.5 6.0 .5 .5 1.0 1.0
29.2 Keyonte George Uta 19 9.3 4.0 3.3 .3 .0 1.3
27.0 Ausar Thompson Det 29 6.3 10.7 4.7 .3 2.3 2.3
25.6 Cason Wallace OKC 19 11.0 2.0 .5 .0 .5 .5
25.5 Marcus Sasser Det 8 3.3 2.0 1.0 .0 .0 .7
25.4 Brandon Miller Cha 29 15.0 4.5 2.0 .5 .5 2.0
24.0 Jordan Hawkins NOP 13 6.0 2.0 1.5 .0 .0 .5
xyz rookies tm mpg Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
20.1 Amen Thompson Hou 17 6.0 3.0 2.5 .0 .5 2.5
20.0 Gradey Dick Tor 12 5.3 1.0 .7 .0 .0 .3
18.5 Toumani Camara Por 19 4.5 3.0 2.0 .0 .5 .0
17.2 Jaime Jaquez Mia 15 4.3 2.3 1.7 .7 .0 1.7
13.0 Scoot Henderson Por 30 9.0 3.0 3.0 .5 .0 4.5
10.7 Bilal Coulibaly Was 18 1.5 2.5 1.5 .0 2.0 2.0
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Sun Oct 29, 2023 7:11 pm
by Crow
Henderson had a -15 BPM as of yesterday.
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 12:54 am
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 7:11 pm
Henderson had a -15 BPM as of yesterday.
Yeah, dead last in the league. Apparently 4.5 TO/G will do that; Wemby is 63rd from the bottom (-4.6) of 212 who qualify, and 50th-worst WS/48.
Scoot is also last in ws/48.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 3:14 am
by Crow
"Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb."
Is there a formula for this? Height alone wouldn't suggest this ratio.
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 4:07 am
by DarkStar48
Mike G wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 12:54 am
Crow wrote: ↑Sun Oct 29, 2023 7:11 pm
Henderson had a -15 BPM as of yesterday.
Yeah, dead last in the league. Apparently 4.5 TO/G will do that; Wemby is 63rd from the bottom (-4.6) of 212 who qualify, and 50th-worst WS/48.
Scoot is also last in ws/48.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
The most prominent issues I have seen with Wembanyama these first 2 games is the inconsistency offensively both within and across games, especially with regard to ball-handling with ~6.0 TO per 36 min.
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:16 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 3:14 am
"Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb."
Is there a formula for this? Height alone wouldn't suggest this ratio.
Yes; we are 3-dimensional, so it's (72/88)^3*209 -- converted to inches.
I don't always trust the player weights shown at b-r.com, but when I do, it's for younger players.
LeBron is shown at 6-9 and 250, which gives him a Kyrie-esque (6-2 and 195) physique. Maybe?
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:36 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:16 pm
Crow wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 3:14 am
"Victor Wembanyama is listed at 7-4 and 209.
Proportionally, a 6' person would be 115 lb."
Is there a formula for this? Height alone wouldn't suggest this ratio.
Yes; we are 3-dimensional, so it's (72/88)^3*209
Weight is not proportional to height cubed in humans. I agree he is quite light. But the best fit exponent within the general population is actually close to 2 (actually below 2.0 for a given gender/age/ethnicity cohort.)
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:49 pm
by Mike G
DarkStar48 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 4:07 am
The most prominent issues I have seen with Wembanyama these first 2 games is the inconsistency offensively both within and across games, especially with regard to ball-handling with ~6.0 TO per 36 min.
His numbers plunged with a terrible outing last night; a 40 point loss to the Clipps.
Bright side is on-court vs off:
Code: Select all
. on court off court
Opp Min +/- min +/-
Dal 23 0 25 -7
Hou 31 9 22 -5
LAC 26 -14 22 -26
Extrapolate those off-court numbers to 48 min. and the team loses by 13, 11, 79!
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:01 pm
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:36 pm
Weight is not proportional to height cubed in humans. I agree he is quite light. But the best fit exponent within the general population is actually close to 2 (actually below 2.0 for a given gender/age/ethnicity cohort.)
I was doing straight proportions, and I think you are referring to population averages; percentiles.
Ralph Sampson, also 7-4, would have to lose 20 lb to look like Wemby. His nickname was "Stick".
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:20 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 1:49 pm
DarkStar48 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 4:07 am
The most prominent issues I have seen with Wembanyama these first 2 games is the inconsistency offensively both within and across games, especially with regard to ball-handling with ~6.0 TO per 36 min.
His numbers plunged with a terrible outing last night; a 40 point loss to the Clipps.
Bright side is on-court vs off:
Code: Select all
. on court off court
Opp Min +/- min +/-
Dal 23 0 25 -7
Hou 31 9 22 -5
LAC 26 -14 22 -26
Extrapolate those off-court numbers to 48 min. and the team loses by 13, 11, 79!
Wembanyama reminds me of rookie KD--tremendous talent evident but inconsistent results. If healthy, he should mature like KD did. He also has better defensive skills and instincts than KD did; that side of the ball he should have good impact very soon if not already.
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Mon Oct 30, 2023 5:57 pm
by Mike G
Some mo'betta stats.
PER and BPM have been converted roughly to 'wins/48 min' and averaged with WS/48.
After 2-3 games:
Code: Select all
xyz rookie pick tm min PER ws/48 BPM xyzW
.204 Cason Wallace 10 OKC 60 22.2 .247 4.8 .25
.195 Chet Holmgren 2* OKC 82 23.2 .217 4.7 .33
.182 Dereck Lively 12 Dal 48 24.7 .263 0.4 .18
.170 Sasha Vezenkov 57** Sac 46 21.1 .170 4.1 .16
.101 Keyonte George 16 Uta 58 17.6 .080 0.3 .12
.089 Brandon Miller 2 Cha 58 13.0 .106 -0.8 .11
.084 Gradey Dick 13 Tor 36 11.8 .159 -3.3 .06
.071 Ausar Thompson 5 Det 88 11.0 .083 -1.5 .13
.013 Jaime Jaquez 18 Mia 46 9.3 .013 -5.4 .01
.007 Toumani Camara 52 Por 66 9.0 -.019 -4.7 .01
xyz rookie pick tm min PER ws/48 BPM xyzW
-.013 Wembanyama 1 SAS 81 13.8 -.069 -6.8 -.02
-.039 Amen Thompson 4 Hou 54 7.7 -.074 -7.8 -.04
-.091 Bilal Coulibali 7 Was 37 1.2 -.137 -9.6 -.07
-.189 Scoot Henderson 3 Por 87 -2.0 -.248 -16.4 -.34
* - Holmgren was drafted last year but didn't play.
** - Drafted by the Nets in 2017, Vezenkov is the first player from Cyprus in NBA history. At 28, he's the 2nd-oldest rookie in the league.
The West has the top 5 rookies in the early going. Top 2 with the same team.
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2023 8:18 pm
by Crow
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2023 1:14 pm
by Mike G
DSMok1 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2023 2:20 pm
Wembanyama reminds me of rookie KD--tremendous talent evident but inconsistent results. ..
Five games isn't much. But:
Code: Select all
gm 1-5 mpg TS% eFG% Reb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% ORt DRt
Durant 35 .499 .461 8.1 13.0 1.3 1.4 13.1 30.6 93 108
Wemby 29 .589 .553 16.4 9.1 2.3 7.2 19.4 32.1 98 110
That final Sonics team was pretty terrible. KD's running mates were Earl Watson (PG), Jeff Green (F), Nick Collison (F-C), Damien Wilkins (F-G), Chris Wilcox (PF), Johan Petro (C).
And somehow, KD's on-off was worst on the team. He played 94% at SG.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/te ... ayoffs_pbp
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Tue Dec 05, 2023 4:12 am
by Mike G
eWins projected to the full season from minutes thus far.
Season 24% complete, rookies total 53 projected eWins; 36 of these in the West.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.7 Chet Holmgren OKC 30 .640 21.9 9.4 2.7 1.2 2.3 2.7 1.90
7.5 V Wembanyama SAS 30 .521 17.9 11.9 2.3 1.7 4.2 3.3 1.55
4.6 Ausar Thompson Det 28 .497 10.7 11.8 2.6 1.3 2.7 1.9 .95
4.1 Dereck Lively Dal 25 .705 12.3 10.9 1.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 1.06
3.9 Jaime Jaquez Mia 27 .605 15.1 5.4 2.9 1.5 1.9 .3 .85
2.8 Jordan Hawkins NOP 28 .553 14.6 4.8 1.9 .6 1.3 .0 .59
2.4 Marcus Sasser Det 19 .570 13.6 3.7 4.1 1.4 1.5 .3 .76
2.3 Brandon Miller Cha 31 .550 13.3 4.7 1.7 .7 1.4 .6 .48
2.1 Cason Wallace OKC 22 .721 13.4 3.7 1.9 .9 .9 .6 .57
1.9 Keyonte George Uta 26 .478 11.2 4.6 5.5 .7 3.0 .1 .42
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.8 B Podziemski GSW 19 .564 12.3 7.9 3.5 .9 1.9 .3 .81
1.8 Craig Porter Cle 14 .604 18.1 4.5 4.8 1.4 2.7 1.0 1.16
1.2 Sasha Vezenkov Sac 15 .566 12.7 5.7 .5 1.0 .8 .8 .57
1.1 Duop Reath Por 14 .557 16.2 4.7 2.3 1.1 1.8 .7 .81
.9 Bilal Coulibaly Was 26 .617 9.4 4.8 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.0 .21
.9 Julian Strawther Den 13 .500 12.1 3.4 2.2 .7 .5 .8 .47
.7 Toumani Camara Por 25 .506 7.7 6.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 .9 .16
Re: Rookies 2024
Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:10 pm
by Crow
Wembanyama still negative on BPM and has not made enough recent progress to overcome that. 27% from 3 for season reinforces a najor concern I had before and at draft. Slightly below league average shot frequency at rim and just slightly above average ft rate. Efg% and ts% both greatly below league average.
Maybe someone has access to / awareness of his "shot quality" number? I can say he shoots 46% of time in mid-range compared to league average 37% and that is notably weak from longer mid-range.