APBRmetrics

NBA Draft board 6/26

Lottery

Edey
Clingan
Holmes
Sheppard
Shannon
Dante
Carter
Spencer
Newton
Knecht
KJ Simpson
Scheierman
Jay Williams
Mogbo


More 1st rd

Filipowski
McCain
Sarr
Disu
Shead
Freeman
Ware
LeDee
Dillingham
Castle
Topic
Watson
Beekman
Dil Jones
Larsson
Kolek


2nd rd

Risacher
Cryer
Bridges
Ingram
PJ Hall
Pember
Holland
McCullar
Dav Jones
Post
Da Silva
Ighodaro
Oduro
K Johnson
Buzelis
Tyson
Furphy
Dunn
I Jones
Crawford
Alexander
Mitchell
Bacot
Collier
T Smith
Minix
Salaun
C Williams


Some UDFA candidates

Nunez
M Brown

Round 1 draft day commentary;

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1806016508092686792

If I re-did my board now, what would I change?

Probably would put Ware and DaSilva higher. Maybe Disu, LeDee, Pember and Hall somewhat lower. Perhaps a few more adjustments but not that much.

I probably said something similar on Twitter in past... but I'll add here.

For 2019 draft class, only 14 of 60 have produced a net career VORP over +1. Sure more might get to positive VORP after awhile but tough to add enough positive in 5 years to undo the negatives. Really need to time young players with competitive window to endure the weak when it matters less and get the good at the right time.

I should focus more on the top and let others labor over marginal positives if at all / later contributors.

But the average draft rank of the 14 positives is almost 18th. So focus on best prospects but don't expect GMs to take them that high on average.

Fit gets slighted over BPA; but if you don't fit, you often won't play and won't have immediate realized value.

Mocks will and should be very different than big boards. But I havent and probably won't do the extra work a mock unless asked and paid to do it.

The value of draft really depends on team and stage of competitive cycle. Can pursue / get what a team wants / needs from other markets. Comparative value, now and in future, reliability and durability varies and should be studied more.

Lightly used draft picks are an interesting secondary market, if you can interpret usage, look deeper into indicators in limited, cloudy data.

Early comments on a few best ranked players and then talk about approach to draft analysis:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1851867522636931526

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1853924297422848252

Status report on a few.

Not a single rookie is above neutral on Darko projection. Only 3 sophomores are.

Status report on my best 2024 picks and a few from 2022 and 2023 at my twitter handle, if interested.

Sheppard's is probably the biggest disappointment to me. Need to consider his responsibility along with Coach and front office.

Can this change / work out? Probably not this season. Next? The ones after that?

Accurate pick to performance by BPM continues for Edey and Clingan and Mogbo. Strong recent improvement for Shannon and Spencer and Filipowski.

Actual lottery picks not in my lottery generally continue to under-perform for the GMs that picked them.

Another performance update was made (10 days ago):

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1908222604131131493

Comparing GMs to ESPN pick to performance on Twitter today. And to my board. For group checked, I am way ahead.

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1915484323089932675 and another thread before that with more details.





More comparative review of draft picks, results, approaches:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1962736411020587130

My 2024 NBA draft order evaluation at tawnyparkmetrics (presumably still before this season data):

Dead last on correlation to twitter consensus for lottery picks, 107th for top 30.

90th and 91th on correlation to site's initial unpublished redraft.

But 4th best of 115 on correlation to expected wins for lottery picks and 3rd best for top 30.

At this point consensus and redraft are very very different than expected metric based career wins.

Expected wins are the target.