Can BPM estimate player (opponent) fatigue in playoffs?

[Mike G]

At b-r.com, sorting the Advanced stats by BPM, we get 95 players -- all of whom played 150+ minutes.
Here they are as a data dump along with their regular season minutes per game played and BPM.

Code: Select all

Tm     Player         G   min  rMPG pMPG  rBPM  pBPM   mpg+ BPM+
Bos   Jayson Tatum   19   768   36   40    5.1   3.7    5   -1.4
Bos   Jrue Holiday   19   720   33   38    2.1   2.8    5    0.7
Bos   Jaylen Brown   19   707   34   37    0.7   1.8    4    1.1
Bos   Derrick White  19   676   33   36    3.8   5.3    3    1.5
Bos   Al Horford     19   575   27   30    3.6   3.1    3   -0.5
Bos   Kr Porziņģis    7   165   30   24    5.1   4.6   -6   -0.5
Bos   Pa. Pritchard  19   355   22   19    1.0  -1.5   -4   -2.5
Bos   Sam Hauser     19   283   22   15    1.2   1.1   -7   -0.1

Tm     Player         G   min  rMPG pMPG  rBPM  pBPM   mpg+ BPM+
Dal   Luka Dončić    22   900   38   41    9.9   7.6    3   -2.3
Dal   Kyrie Irving   22   879   35   40    4.9   2.4    5   -2.5
Dal  P.J. Washington 22   785   30   36   -1.2   0.1    5    1.3
Dal   Derrick Jones  22   647   24   29   -1.5   0.4    6    1.9
Dal   Maxi Kleber    13   219   20   22   -1.3  -0.3    2    1.0
Dal   Dereck Lively  21   462   24   22    0.5   3.2   -2    2.7
Dal  Daniel Gafford  22   445   25   20    5.9   2.7   -4   -3.2
Dal   Josh Green     22   399   26   18   -2.7   2.4   -8    5.1
Dal   Tim Hardaway   14   178   27   13   -2.9  -1.7  -14    1.2

Tm     Player         G   min  rMPG pMPG  rBPM  pBPM   mpg+ BPM+
Ind   Pascal Siakam  17   603   33   35    2.5   2.3    2   -0.2
Ind  Ty. Haliburton  15   522   32   35    6.9   6.2    3   -0.7
Ind   Aaron Nesmith  17   559   28   33   -0.5  -3.2    5   -2.7
Ind  Andrew Nembhard 17   554   25   33   -2.2   1.2    8    3.4
Ind   Myles Turner   17   550   27   32    0.9   1.8    5    0.9
Ind  T.J. McConnell  17   348   18   20    3.0   1.7    2   -1.3
Ind   Obi Toppin     17   343   21   20    1.5   2.6   -1    1.1
Ind   Ben Sheppard   17   335   14   20   -3.4  -2.5    5    0.9
Ind  Isaiah Jackson  15   154   13   10    1.7  -1.2   -3   -2.9

Tm     Player         G   min  rMPG pMPG  rBPM  pBPM   mpg+ BPM+
Min  Anthony Edwards 16   649   35   41    3.3   6.7    5    3.4
Min   Rudy Gobert    15   512   34   34    1.8   1.1    0   -0.7
Min  Jaden McDaniels 16   537   29   34   -2.6   1.6    4    4.2
Min   Karl-A Towns   16   522   33   33    2.5   2.8    0    0.3
Min   Mike Conley    15   474   29   32    3.4   2.8    3   -0.6
Min   Ni. A-Walker   16   378   23   24    0.2  -1.3    0   -1.5
Min   Naz Reid       16   361   24   23    1.5   0.8   -2   -0.7
Min   Kyle Anderson  15   231   23   15    1.1   2.3   -7    1.2

Cle   Do. Mitchell   10   382   35   38    5.8   7.2    3    1.4
Cle   Max Strus      12   434   32   36   -0.6  -1.9    4   -1.3
Cle  Darius Garland  12   432   33   36   -1.0  -0.9    3    0.1
Cle   Evan Mobley    12   422   31   35    2.9   3.3    5    0.4
Cle   Caris LeVert   11   278   29   25    0.2  -1.0   -4   -1.2
Cle   Isaac Okoro    12   263   27   22   -1.1  -4.2   -5   -3.1
NYK   Josh Hart      13   548   33   42    0.0   0.9    9    0.9
NYK   OG Anunoby      9   324   34   42    0.6   0.4    8   -0.2
NYK   Jalen Brunson  13   518   35   41    5.8   3.8    6   -2.0
NYK  Do. DiVincenzo  13   466   29   36    3.4   2.0    7   -1.4
NYK  Is. Hartenstein 13   388   25   30    3.5   1.3    5   -2.2
NYK   Miles McBride  13   347   20   27   -0.1  -1.6    7   -1.5
NYK   Pr. Achiuwa     9   184   22   20   -1.4  -3.5   -1   -2.1
Den   Nikola Jokić   12   482   35   40   13.2  12.8    6   -0.4
Den   Jamal Murray   12   462   32   39    4.1  -1.4    7   -5.5
Den   Aaron Gordon   12   445   32   37    1.3   4.5    6    3.2
Den  Michael Porter  12   443   32   37    0.1   0.6    5    0.5
Den  Kentavious C-P  12   420   32   35   -1.4  -1.4    3    0.0
Den  Christian Braun 12   204   20   17   -1.9  -2.2   -3   -0.3
Den  Justin Holiday  12   150   15   13   -1.6  -3.9   -2   -2.3
OKC   Shai G-A       10   399   34   40    9.0   9.2    6    0.2
OKC  Jalen Williams  10   377   31   38    2.3   3.8    6    1.5
OKC   Luguentz Dort  10   350   28   35   -1.6  -0.5    7    1.1
OKC   Chet Holmgren  10   345   29   35    3.4   2.1    5   -1.3
OKC   Cason Wallace  10   198   21   20    0.1  -1.4   -1   -1.5
OKC   Josh Giddey    10   181   25   18    1.5   2.3   -7    0.8
OKC   Isaiah Joe     10   173   19   17    0.9   0.9   -1    0.0
OKC   Aaron Wiggins  10   157   16   16    0.7   2.2    0    1.5
        
Mia   Bam Adebayo     5   192   34   38    2.4   2.1    4   -0.3
Mia   Tyler Herro     5   185   34   37    0.8  -1.4    4   -2.2
Mia   Caleb Martin    5   176   27   35   -0.2  -0.9    8   -0.7
Mil   Damian Lillard  4   156   35   41    2.1   7.3    5    5.2
Mil  Khris Middleton  6   230   27   38    1.1   0.5   11   -0.6
Mil   Pa. Beverley    6   210   20   35   -0.4   0.8   15    1.2
Mil   Brook Lopez     6   200   31   33    0.1   1.4    3    1.3
Mil   Bobby Portis    6   187   25   31   -0.8  -3.4    7   -2.6
Orl   Paolo Banchero  7   262   35   37    1.3   4.7    2    3.4
Orl   Franz Wagner    7   259   33   37    1.2   4.9    5    3.7
Orl   Jalen Suggs     7   232   27   33    1.0   1.5    6    0.5
Orl   Gary Harris     6   159   24   27   -1.2  -2.0    3   -0.8
Orl   Wendell Carter  7   185   26   26    0.9  -0.2    1   -1.1
Phl   Tyrese Maxey    6   267   38   45    3.1   5.0    7    1.9
Phl   Joel Embiid     6   248   34   41   11.6   8.4    8   -3.2
Phl   Kelly Oubre     6   224   30   37   -2.3   0.8    7    3.1
Phl   Tobias Harris   6   218   34   36    0.9  -2.9    3   -3.8
Phl   Kyle Lowry      6   175   28   29   -1.3   0.6    1    1.9
Phl   Nicolas Batum   6   170   26   28   -0.5  -0.4    3    0.1
LAC   James Harden    6   242   34   40    4.1   7.7    6    3.6
LAC   Paul George     6   222   34   37    3.2   3.2    3    0.0
LAC   Ivica Zubac     6   192   26   32    0.8   1.4    6    0.6
LAC   Terance Mann    6   187   25   31   -1.5  -1.2    6    0.3
LAC   Norman Powell   6   179   26   30   -0.8  -2.6    4   -1.8
LAL   Anthony Davis   5   208   36   42    5.1   7.3    6    2.2
LAL   LeBron James    5   204   35   41    6.5  10.6    6    4.1
LAL   D'A. Russell    5   185   33   37    0.9  -3.3    4   -4.2
LAL   Austin Reaves   5   174   32   35    0.4   3.8    3    3.4
LAL   Rui Hachimura   5   152   27   30   -0.9  -5.6    4   -4.7
NOP   Trey Murphy     4   168   30   42    2.5  -0.4   12   -2.9
Phx   Kevin Durant    4   168   37   42    4.0   3.8    5   -0.2
Phx   Devin Booker    4   166   36   42    3.0   4.5    6    1.5
Phx   Bradley Beal    4   154   33   39    0.4  -3.8    5   -4.2

https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
On average all these players increased playing time by 3.0 mpg in the postseason.
Weighted equally or by total minutes, they net 1.6 BPM both in the season and in these playoffs.
There is zero correlation between mpg change and BPM change.

I'm looking at player age as a difference maker, and also total minutes. LeBron and Davis did great in one round, for old guys. But keeping that pace in later rounds?

[Crow]

A normal distribution is to be expected, especially with key guys going at key guys to produce the measurements.

If you are going to look at splits, in addition to age, I'd split by position or super-position (primary playmaker, wing, big) and finalist / not. And by offensive usage.

And for career data.

[Mike G]

OK, the median increase in minutes from RS to PO was 4.0 mpg. Median age is 26.5. So players are divided into 4 equal-size buckets, separated by these medians. Here are their average playoff rounds, RS and PO mpg and the difference; RS and PO BPM and the diff; that avg diff weighted by minutes played; avg age, games, minutes.

Code: Select all

grp  rds   mpgR   mpgP   mpg+  BPMr   BPMp   BPM+  minwtd   Age    G     min
A1   1.6   31.6   38.1   6.5   2.69   2.84   0.15  -0.06   29.9    8.8   333
A2   2.2   29.3   35.3   6.0   1.34   1.65   0.31   0.45   23.8   12.2   417
      
B1   2.5   28.3   28.8   0.5   1.16   1.04  -0.12   0.03   31.3   11.9   338
B2   2.5   25.3   24.1  -1.1   1.16   0.71  -0.45  -0.46   23.4   13.3   306

There is likely a difference between increasing your minutes from 37 to 42, or from 17 to 22. In the first case, your rest time goes from 11 mpg to 6 mpg; in the 2nd it's insignificant.
Again with four buckets. In the RS, nobody averaged 40 mpg, and in playoffs 19 did.
Of those going 35-40 mpg in PO, none went that many in the RS.
And in the 30-35 group, all played more in PO than in RS.
First column is sample size. Again showing averages:

Code: Select all

ss   pMPG   rds    G     min   rMPG  rBPM  pBPM   mpg+  BPM+ minwt  Age
19   41.2   1.9   10.0   405   34.9   5.2   5.7   6.2   0.4  -0.2   28.3
29   35.9   1.9   10.9   389   31.1   1.1   0.9   4.9  -0.3   0.0   26.9
18   32.2   2.1   11.2   362   28.0   0.7   0.6   4.2  -0.1   0.1   27.4
_6   27.8   1.7   10.0   280   24.4  -0.6  -0.5   3.4   0.1   0.4   29.0