I considered these among my best draft prospect recommendations in past several years:
Thread starting here
https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1789064150620270973
I might identify more later that I recommended or others that I didn't though perhaps should have; but I'll start here.
Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
Queta.
"Queta, 39th pick, 7th for me, 12th on BPM."
+12 college BPM, improving A/TO, monster blocks, 2 way strong rebounding rates, acceptable ts% on pretty high usage, strong ft rate, 3 years of data. Only stat weakness was low SOS. A/TO improving but going thru past steps at a new level rather than continuing from end of college experience.
Solid RAPM, ok RAPM against top 60. BPM60 was great, even with overall at +12 in modest sample.
I rated him very high, clearly way way higher than consensus.
Lower NBA usage was predictable. Very low minutes? On surface, it appears to be circumstances but perhaps there will be further reflections. FT rate not as high and probably related to lower usage. Offensive rebounding got even stronger, defensive rebounding lesser. Context? Predictable? Just getting started with the analysis.
Darko, a bit above average, significantly that way both sides of court. Rate of change was negative, perhaps from tiny use but is now improving.
"Queta, 39th pick, 7th for me, 12th on BPM."
+12 college BPM, improving A/TO, monster blocks, 2 way strong rebounding rates, acceptable ts% on pretty high usage, strong ft rate, 3 years of data. Only stat weakness was low SOS. A/TO improving but going thru past steps at a new level rather than continuing from end of college experience.
Solid RAPM, ok RAPM against top 60. BPM60 was great, even with overall at +12 in modest sample.
I rated him very high, clearly way way higher than consensus.
Lower NBA usage was predictable. Very low minutes? On surface, it appears to be circumstances but perhaps there will be further reflections. FT rate not as high and probably related to lower usage. Offensive rebounding got even stronger, defensive rebounding lesser. Context? Predictable? Just getting started with the analysis.
Darko, a bit above average, significantly that way both sides of court. Rate of change was negative, perhaps from tiny use but is now improving.
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
Sengun.
"16th actual pick, 4th on my board, 1st on career 2date BPM (removing tiny minute guys)."
1 year in strong preNBA league at big minutes and fine performance. Strong efg% would have been even better without 3pt experimentation. Very good FT rate. Amazing OReb rate, strong DReb. A/TO pretty good for a young player. Blick rate was decent. PF rate was pretty high.
I rated him very high, clearly higher than consensus.
Good a good start on minutes and improved on it. Still experimenting with 3pt shot. Better than in Turkey but only meh and questions remain. Probably should continue to try but volume of experiment and mature level is uncertain with higher winning or higher winning expectations. TS% some improvement, ok but not great. FT rate was good but declining. FT% in slight decline and just ok. Notably lower than in Turkey. Very good A/TO, continuous from before. Defense? I don't really know about in Turkey. In NBA might be improving and acceptable.
Darko started out well but then nit much growth. Defensive Darko started out very well then slid with a moderate recovery underway. Cracked top 100 bur will he crack top 50 or top 25? On Rockets or elsewhere? That to ponder later.
"16th actual pick, 4th on my board, 1st on career 2date BPM (removing tiny minute guys)."
1 year in strong preNBA league at big minutes and fine performance. Strong efg% would have been even better without 3pt experimentation. Very good FT rate. Amazing OReb rate, strong DReb. A/TO pretty good for a young player. Blick rate was decent. PF rate was pretty high.
I rated him very high, clearly higher than consensus.
Good a good start on minutes and improved on it. Still experimenting with 3pt shot. Better than in Turkey but only meh and questions remain. Probably should continue to try but volume of experiment and mature level is uncertain with higher winning or higher winning expectations. TS% some improvement, ok but not great. FT rate was good but declining. FT% in slight decline and just ok. Notably lower than in Turkey. Very good A/TO, continuous from before. Defense? I don't really know about in Turkey. In NBA might be improving and acceptable.
Darko started out well but then nit much growth. Defensive Darko started out very well then slid with a moderate recovery underway. Cracked top 100 bur will he crack top 50 or top 25? On Rockets or elsewhere? That to ponder later.
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
Murphy, "17th pick, 12th for me, 4th on BPM."
3 years in college. 2 weak, 1 pretty good. High ts%, high but declining 3pta rate, FT rate declining from slightly above average to below average. Very meh rebounder. Meh assists but low turnovers and little change in A/TO. Modest and declining block rate. Improving personal defense or team defense? D-Darko shows good upward movement to top 30%.
Overall Darko already at 66th and steadily improving. Seems sure to enter top 50. Top 25? Could be. Did not have a peak expectation, don't really speculate on that level, mainly just prior bonafides. Some improvement in several areas, especially A/TO.
Modestly higher than consensus and paid off well.
3 years in college. 2 weak, 1 pretty good. High ts%, high but declining 3pta rate, FT rate declining from slightly above average to below average. Very meh rebounder. Meh assists but low turnovers and little change in A/TO. Modest and declining block rate. Improving personal defense or team defense? D-Darko shows good upward movement to top 30%.
Overall Darko already at 66th and steadily improving. Seems sure to enter top 50. Top 25? Could be. Did not have a peak expectation, don't really speculate on that level, mainly just prior bonafides. Some improvement in several areas, especially A/TO.
Modestly higher than consensus and paid off well.
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
This thread will take quite awhile to do.
I think I'll stop there for the moment.
I think I'll stop there for the moment.
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
Charles Bassey.
"53rd pick. 24th for me, 5th on BPM."
3 years in college. 2 weak, 1 good (on BPM and BPM60, RAPM and RAPM60). Up and down ts%, strong 2 way rebounder, weak paaser but cut turnovers, very strong block rate. Defensive awards. Weak SOS.
Top third overall Darko, based on bottom third offense and top 10% defense. Usage way down from college and falling to 12%. Strong ts% in limited role. Rebounding remains fine. Passing activity is up but A/TO remains pretty constant and poor. BPM is modestly positive.
Minutes were limited. Not a surprise but I should probably draft based on that expectation rather than college performance unbiased.
"53rd pick. 24th for me, 5th on BPM."
3 years in college. 2 weak, 1 good (on BPM and BPM60, RAPM and RAPM60). Up and down ts%, strong 2 way rebounder, weak paaser but cut turnovers, very strong block rate. Defensive awards. Weak SOS.
Top third overall Darko, based on bottom third offense and top 10% defense. Usage way down from college and falling to 12%. Strong ts% in limited role. Rebounding remains fine. Passing activity is up but A/TO remains pretty constant and poor. BPM is modestly positive.
Minutes were limited. Not a surprise but I should probably draft based on that expectation rather than college performance unbiased.
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
I am skipping Grimes for now.
"Garza, 53rd pick, 20th to me, 29th on BPM."
Garza, 2 meh years in college, 2 strong. BPM peaked at almost +14. All his other metrics were great too. Very strong SOS. Good ts% on 33% usage. Good offensive rebounder, meh defensive rebounder. Modest A/TO improvement.
By Darko, he is average based on top 15% offensive impact and near bottom on defense. Both ratings were to be expected imo. Overall his Darko improved from typical rookie to half decent bench level.
NBA minutes were small and declining but he still has a spot / new contract and could possibly, eventually get more minutes if a main big is moved out. Usage was climbed back up to hid college performance. BPM started and returns to typically sub weak. Offensive rebounding went to amazing, defensive rebounding to very weak. Not sure that could be predicted but will have to try to do so harder. Passing activity remains low and unimproved. That probably was predictable.
I was more right about impact quality than consensus but they were more right about minutes. I'll have to try harder to model big prospects by first or second tier use probability or third or fourth. It isn't what I'd try in some cases. It probably should be try decently and see but that may not happen. Decided in practice or before arrival.
"Garza, 53rd pick, 20th to me, 29th on BPM."
Garza, 2 meh years in college, 2 strong. BPM peaked at almost +14. All his other metrics were great too. Very strong SOS. Good ts% on 33% usage. Good offensive rebounder, meh defensive rebounder. Modest A/TO improvement.
By Darko, he is average based on top 15% offensive impact and near bottom on defense. Both ratings were to be expected imo. Overall his Darko improved from typical rookie to half decent bench level.
NBA minutes were small and declining but he still has a spot / new contract and could possibly, eventually get more minutes if a main big is moved out. Usage was climbed back up to hid college performance. BPM started and returns to typically sub weak. Offensive rebounding went to amazing, defensive rebounding to very weak. Not sure that could be predicted but will have to try to do so harder. Passing activity remains low and unimproved. That probably was predictable.
I was more right about impact quality than consensus but they were more right about minutes. I'll have to try harder to model big prospects by first or second tier use probability or third or fourth. It isn't what I'd try in some cases. It probably should be try decently and see but that may not happen. Decided in practice or before arrival.
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
Bouknight and Z Williams were pretty obvious don't take prospects that I have discussed before here and / or Twitter. Not going to add to it right now. So far, proper major departures from consensus ratings / ranks.
All 10 of highlighted from 2022 and 2023 were obvious and correct to date as well. Maybe I'll provide detailed profiles later.
All 10 of highlighted from 2022 and 2023 were obvious and correct to date as well. Maybe I'll provide detailed profiles later.
Re: Best of draft recommendations further analyzed
Review of my worst picks may be more educational.
J Butler, Giddey, D Daniels, B Miller, Whitmore. Perhaps Sensabaugh.
Not yet "sure" how to avoid repeating being off on such cases.
Not going to get every case right. It is still early. Consensus was off on 3 of these as well.
J Butler, Giddey, D Daniels, B Miller, Whitmore. Perhaps Sensabaugh.
Not yet "sure" how to avoid repeating being off on such cases.
Not going to get every case right. It is still early. Consensus was off on 3 of these as well.