2024 WNBA Playoffs

[Mike G]

Round 1

Connecticut Sun 1 - 0 Indiana Fever
93-69
Pythagorean Wins .98 - .02 , eWins .74 - .26
https://www.basketball-reference.com/wn ... otals.html

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.23  DeWanna Bonner  Con   31  .786   35.2   6.4   5.7    .0   1.2  2.4   2.92
.16   Alyssa Thomas  Con   37  .400   11.1   8.9  12.3    .0   1.0   .0   1.68
.15   Marina Mabrey  Con   32  .614   34.1   2.9   3.1    .0   2.2   .0   1.93
.12   Aliyah Boston  Ind   33  .567   15.8  12.1   2.4    .0   2.2  2.2   1.41
.08  DiJ. Carrington Con   34  .538   16.1   4.9   3.1    .0   1.1  1.1    .96

.07  Olivia N-Ododa  Con   14  1.00   19.8  12.7    .0   2.4    .0  2.4   2.07
.07   Caitlin Clark  Ind   36  .306    6.7   4.0   5.9   3.0   2.0  1.0    .74
.06   Lexie Hull     Ind   29  .455    4.7   7.5   2.8   5.0   1.3  1.3    .88
.05  Veronica Burton Con   20  .889   18.0   1.5   1.6   1.7    .0  1.7   1.08
.04  Kelsey Mitchell Ind   37  .512   16.6   2.9   3.6    .0   4.0   .0    .47

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.02  Damiris Dantas  Ind   24  .750   15.6   2.8    .0    .0   1.4   .0    .27
.01   Brionna Jones  Con   26  .250    4.2   6.4   1.4   5.8   7.1  1.4    .14
-.01  Erica Wheeler  Ind    9  .500    2.6    .0   5.2    .0    .0   .0   -.23
-.01  NaLyssa Smith  Ind    9  .000     .0   4.0    .0   4.1   8.2  4.1   -.50
-.02  Temi Fagbenle  Ind   13  .000     .0   5.0   1.8    .0   2.5   .0   -.65
 

shooting : Con .578 - .473 Ind
rebounds: Con 36 - 29 Ind
turnovers: Con 10 - 13 Ind


New York Liberty 1 - 0 Atlanta Dream
83 - 69
Pyth wins .92 - .08 , eWins .71 - .29

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.23  Breanna Stewart NYL   32  .526   24.5   9.7   3.8   2.2    .0  3.4   2.93
.21  Leonie Fiebich  NYL   25  1.11   48.3   1.1   1.6   2.8   1.5   .0   3.37
.16  Sabrina Ionescu NYL   26  .654   29.5   5.5   7.8   1.4   2.8   .0   2.51
.15   Rhyne Howard   Atl   29  .438   14.5   6.8   4.1   3.9   1.3  3.8   2.07
.07   Jonquel Jones  NYL   22  .692   19.1   9.0   5.5    .0   5.0   .0   1.27

.06 Laeticia Amihere Atl   10  .571   24.6  15.0    .0    .0    .0  3.3   2.59
.05   Tina Charles   Atl   24  .480   15.2   9.6    .0    .0   1.5   .0    .79
.04  C. Vandersloot  NYL   16  .333    7.4   5.0   7.0   4.1   2.1   .0   1.04
.04  Betnijah Laney  NYL   30  .500   13.0    .0   6.7   1.2   3.7   .0    .50
.03   Naz Hillmon    Atl   19  .692   17.6   5.2    .0    .0   1.9   .0    .59

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.03   Maya Caldwell  Atl   17  .333    2.8   5.4   1.6   4.2    .0  2.0    .66
.01   Allisha Gray   Atl   27  .409    9.7   6.1   2.2    .0   2.7   .0    .18
.01   Lorela Cubaj   Atl   16  .500    3.5   9.5    .0   2.2    .0   .0    .29
.01   Haley Jones    Atl   13  .500   14.1   2.3   2.1   2.7   5.2   .0    .29
-.00  Kennedy Burke  NYL   11  .000     .0   2.4   3.4    .0    .0  3.0   -.13

-.01  Nia Coffey     Atl   11  .000     .0   2.7   5.0    .0    .0   .0   -.37
-.01  Ezinne Kalu    Atl   15  .364    6.9    .0   3.7   2.3   4.5   .0   -.28
-.02  Nyara Sabally  NYL   16  .200    2.9  11.6    .0   2.1   8.5  2.1   -.38
-.02  Kayla Thornton NYL   17  .000     .0   3.1   2.2    .0    .0   .0   -.53
-.04  Jordin Canada  Atl   20  .375    4.3    .0   6.0   1.9   9.1   .0   -.83

shooting : NY .546 - .445 Atl
rebounds: NY 37 - 36 Atl
turnovers: 14 - 14


Minnesota Lynx 1 - 0 Phoenix Mercury
102 - 95
Pyth wins .72 - .28 , eWins .61 - .39

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.21 Napheesa Collier Min   40  .731   30.2   5.3   3.1    .0   1.8   .9   2.10
.18   Natasha Cloud  Phx   38  .688   25.1   5.8   6.4   1.0   4.8  1.0   1.86
.09   Co. Williams   Min   25  .375    8.2   8.6   9.9   5.9   5.9   .0   1.50
.09   Kayla McBride  Min   35  .690   17.4   3.0   3.5    .0    .0   .0    .99
.07 Bridget Carleton Min   35  .667   10.3   6.1   3.5   2.1   1.0   .0    .82

.06   Alanna Smith   Min   21  .700   10.5   5.1   4.4    .0   1.8  5.3   1.21
.06  Myisha H-Allen  Min   19  .714   15.9   8.9   4.6    .0   1.8   .0   1.25
.05   Diana Taurasi  Phx   30  .656   19.7   2.4   1.6   1.2   3.7   .0    .67
.04  Kahleah Copper  Phx   33  .485   11.5   4.4   2.2   2.2   2.2   .0    .52
.03   Natasha Mack   Phx   11  .500    4.0  15.6   2.1    .0    .0  3.1   1.22

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.03  Brittney Griner Phx   31  .385    6.7   7.1    .0   1.2   1.2  2.4    .42
.03  So. Cunningham  Phx   29  .800    8.3   5.1    .8   2.5    .0   .0    .44
.02  Celeste Taylor  Phx   12  1.50   10.1    .0   3.8    .0    .0  2.9    .60
.02 Natisha Hiedeman Min   18  .286    4.1   3.7   6.5   1.9   1.9   .0    .34
.01 Monique Billings Phx   15  .500    2.9   9.2    .0   2.3    .0   .0    .25

shooting : Min .626 - .597 Phx
rebounds: 31 - 31
turnovers: Min 10 - 11 Phx


Las Vegas Aces 1 - 0 Seattle Storm
78 - 67
Pyth wins .88 - .12 , eWins .69 - .31

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.24   Tiffany Hayes  LVa   26  .769   34.9   4.3   1.4   6.6    .0   .0   1.87
.22   A'ja Wilson    LVa   36  .477   21.5   6.6   2.1    .0   1.0  5.1   1.21
.16   Chelsea Gray   LVa   32  .640   22.2   1.9   8.2   1.1   3.4  1.1   1.01
.12  Skylar D-Smith  Sea   37  .444   13.6   3.4   7.2   1.0   3.0  2.0    .67
.12  Nneka Ogwumike  Sea   39  .382    9.3   8.0   2.5   1.9    .0   .9    .61

.08   Jackie Young   LVa   30  .462   14.5   6.9   2.5   1.2   1.2   .0    .57
.05  Jordan Horston  Sea   19  .833   20.3   4.6    .0    .0    .0   .0    .57
.05   Alysha Clark   LVa   23  .875   14.7   3.7   3.1   1.5   1.5   .0    .47
.04  Gabby Williams  Sea   37  .467   12.1   6.7   1.8    .0   3.9  1.0    .20
.02   Kiah Stokes    LVa   15  ----     .0  15.6    .0    .0    .0  2.4    .32

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.01   Jewell Loyd    Sea   26  .353    6.2   3.6   2.5   1.4    .0   .0    .11
.01 Mercedes Russell Sea   32  .500    8.4  11.7    .0   1.2   5.7   .0    .03
-.07  Kelsey Plum    LVa   27  .125    1.4    .0   2.8   1.3   2.7   .0   -.50

shooting : LV .523 - .450 Sea
rebounds: Sea 40 - 33 LV
turnovers: LV 8 - 13 Sea

[Mike G]

NY Liberty 2 - 0 Atl Dream
avg score 87.0 - 75.5
Pyth wins 1.74 - .26 , eWins 1.37 - .63

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eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.49  Sabrina Ionescu  NY   33  .671   33.9   3.0   7.5   2.1   2.2   .0   3.03
.29   Jonquel Jones   NY   28  .707   22.2  11.8   3.7   1.2   3.9   .7   2.05
.27   Rhyne Howard   Atl   35  .500   14.5   5.4   2.8   2.9   1.1  2.6   1.59
.26  Breanna Stewart  NY   35  .465   15.7   8.0   2.5   1.0   1.0  1.6   1.49
.24   Leonie Fiebich  NY   24  1.07   33.1   2.1   1.5   1.5   2.3   .0   2.01

.12   Allisha Gray   Atl   34  .636   18.0   4.0   1.6    .0   2.7   .5    .72
.11   Tina Charles   Atl   29  .531   13.9   7.5   1.4    .0   1.3   .0    .74
.09  Co. Vandersloot  NY   16  .364    7.1   5.8   7.1   2.0   1.1  1.1   1.14
.07 Laeticia Amihere Atl    5  .571   23.4  15.4    .0    .0    .0  3.3   2.70
.04   Naz Hillmon    Atl   24  .556   10.0   9.1    .6    .8   3.0   .0    .35

eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.03   Betnijah Laney  NY   31  .405    7.7   1.1   5.6   1.1   1.8   .0    .22
.03   Maya Caldwell  Atl    9  .250    2.1   5.1   2.7   4.0    .0  1.8    .67
.01   Nia Coffey     Atl   11  .389    7.7   5.6   2.3    .0   1.5  1.5    .22
.01   Haley Jones    Atl    9  .500   12.6   3.4   1.4   2.0   3.7   .0    .24
.00   Nyara Sabally   NY   11  .429    8.7  10.1    .0   1.5   6.4  1.6    .03

.00   Lorela Cubaj   Atl   11  .500    2.4   7.0   1.1   1.6    .0   .0    .02
-.01  Kennedy Burke   NY    6  .000     .0   2.7   2.9    .0    .0  3.0   -.19
-.02  Ezinne Kalu    Atl    8  .364    6.6    .0   3.4   2.4   4.5   .0   -.41
-.02  Jordin Canada  Atl   27  .423    5.9   1.2   7.5    .7   4.7   .0   -.13
-.02  Kayla Thornton  NY   15  .000     .0   6.1   1.1    .0    .0  1.1   -.30

shooting : NY .565 - .514 Atl
rebounds: NY 34.0 - 33.0 Atl
turnovers: NY 11.5 - 12.5 Atl

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. Atlanta      e400   PER   WS/40     . New York        e400   PER   WS/40
Rhyne Howard   1.59   21.8   .119      Breanna Stewart  1.49   16.5   .136
Allisha Gray    .72   15.3   .051      Sabrina Ionescu  3.03   33.0   .410
Tina Charles    .74   13.1   .035      Betnijah Laney    .22    6.8   .032
Jordin Canada  -.13    6.6  -.121      Jonquel Jones    2.05   24.4   .269
Naz Hillmon     .35   10.6  -.021      Leonie Fiebich   2.01   24.6   .294
Nia Coffey      .22    5.8  -.055  Courtney Vandersloot 1.14   14.9   .131
Lorela Cubaj    .02    7.5   .067      Kayla Thornton   -.30    2.9   .014
Haley Jones     .24    9.4  -.075      Nyara Sabally     .03     .3  -.118
Maya Caldwell   .67   12.3   .022      Kennedy Burke    -.19   -3.3  -.070
Ezinne Kalu    -.41    1.8  -.200               
Laeti. Amihere 2.70   38.1   .321               
. total         .63   13.1   .014      . total          1.37   16.8   .178

LV Aces 2 - 0 Sea Storm
avg score 80.5 - 71.5
Pyth wins 1.66 - .34 , eWins 1.33 - .67

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eWin   per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.50   A'ja Wilson     LV   37   .542   21.7   8.7   2.0    .0   1.0  3.5   2.72
.34   Tiffany Hayes   LV   26   .725   23.5   4.7   2.7   4.2    .7   .0   2.65
.27   Chelsea Gray    LV   32   .528   16.9   2.8   9.0   1.1   4.5  1.1   1.68
.24  Nneka Ogwumike  Sea   37   .397   10.4   7.9   1.6   2.9    .5   .5   1.31
.23  Skylar D-Smith  Sea   36   .414   11.7   1.6   7.4   2.0   2.0  1.5   1.27

.16   Kelsey Plum     LV   31   .585   19.6   3.0   2.9    .6   2.4   .0   1.07
.16   Jackie Young    LV   30   .438   11.7   8.1   4.2   1.2   2.4   .0   1.05
.15  Gabby Williams  Sea   37   .523   14.5   5.2   2.0    .5   2.0   .5    .81
.09   Ezi Magbegor   Sea   14   .636   15.6   7.3   2.1    .0    .0   .0   1.26
.06  Jordan Horston  Sea   18   .667   11.9   4.1    .0   3.0   2.0  2.0    .72

eWin   per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
-.01  Jewell Loyd    Sea   30   .357    6.1   3.5   2.0    .6    .0   .0   -.08
-.01  Alysha Clark    LV   18   .500    6.6   4.1   2.9   1.0   1.9   .0   -.15
-.03  Kiah Stokes     LV   17            .0  13.3    .0    .0   2.1  1.1   -.31
-.03  Mer. Russell   Sea   23   .556    7.2   8.8    .0    .8   3.9   .0   -.24

shooting : LV .542 - .458 Sea
rebounds: LV 39.0 - 35.0 Sea
turnovers: Sea 8.5 - 11.5 LV

Code: Select all

. Las Vegas    e400   PER   WS/40     . Seattle       e400   PER   WS/40
A'ja Wilson    2.72   25.7   .266     Nneka Ogwumike  1.31   15.1   .041
Chelsea Gray   1.68   16.9   .125     Gabby Williams   .81   13.4   .037
Kelsey Plum    1.07   14.1   .146     Skylar D-Smith  1.27   15.3   .032
Jackie Young   1.05   11.0   .085      Jewell Loyd    -.08   5.1   -.033
Tiffany Hayes  2.65   30.2   .392    Mercedes Russell -.24   9.6   -.016
Alysha Clark   -.15    5.6   .081      Jordan Horston  .72   17.3   .152
Kiah Stokes    -.31    2.7   .079      Ezi Magbegor   1.26   18.7   .174
Sydney Colson -1.06   -2.1  -.026               
Me. Gustafson -1.16   -7.3  -.157               
. Total        1.33   15.5   .176      . Total         .67   12.3   .031

https://www.basketball-reference.com/wn ... anced.html

[Crow]

Sweep, sweep, sweep, sweep. As expected, aided by series format.

[Mike G]

The WNBA is 0-4.
Half of teams making the playoffs get zero games at home.
The absolute worst way to format a series. Unprecedented and tragic.

[Crow]

It makes the regular season very important. Engineering top teams advancement probably helped with ratings, media coverage.

The format is different in next rounds. 2-2-1. Still favors higher seed. 1-1-1-1-1 would be most fair.

I'd think it will change in the future. More teams, more votes for more fairness beyond the top teams. Less concern about travel cost and hassle for teams and media. Not sure if networks have influence. They probably have wanted the top teams but might be ready for more drama, more games now.

Probably doesn't really matter to me in the end. I'm in outer orbit, if at all.


The range in playoff efficiencies is pretty extreme. A bad series isnt just 40% efficiency, it could be 30% or way less. I dont recall if "eff." in your use is efg% or ts% but 40% is low or very low. Just 2 games so far but a mix of outstanding performances and quite bad ones.

I think there is a big depth of talent issue, or at least depth of talent revealed issue. Expansion may make sense to league office, networks, players, maybe the most eager fans, but I don't know if the talent is deep enough to support. Certainly doesn't look compelling.

Looking at season data, it appears about 35% WNBA players have a ts% below 50%. In NBA, it is a bit over 20%.

WNBA Playoffs to date, 53% below 50% ts%. Caitlin Clark, 43.1%. Breanna Stewart, 47%.

[Mike G]

Con Sun 2 - 0 Ind Fever
avg score 90 - 75
Pyth wins 1.84 - .16 , eWins 1.42 - .58

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.39   Alyssa Thomas  Con   39  .477   13.9   6.3  11.6    .5    .9   .0   2.03
.34  DeWanna Bonner  Con   32  .597   22.1   7.1   3.8   1.3   1.1  1.1   2.15
.33   Aliyah Boston  Ind   33  .589   16.2  15.2   2.4    .5   2.3  2.3   2.05
.25   Marina Mabrey  Con   36  .537   22.0   2.2   4.3    .0   2.0  1.0   1.41
.22   Caitlin Clark  Ind   38  .429   12.9   4.3   5.9   1.6   2.4  1.0   1.14

.16  Olivia N-Ododa  Con   19  .875   14.5   9.4    .0   2.0    .0  2.7   1.65
.14  DiJ. Carrington Con   30  .571   15.2   5.0   2.3   1.4   1.9   .6    .98
.12  Veronica Burton Con   22  .720   16.9   2.7   2.9    .9    .8   .8   1.08
.03   Brionna Jones  Con   20  .353    8.9   4.9    .9   4.2   4.6   .9    .28
.02   Lexie Hull     Ind   30  .419    5.7   4.9   1.8   2.6   1.8   .6    .17

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.02  Kelsey Mitchell Ind   39  .487   14.3   2.6   2.7    .0   4.3   .0    .12
.02   Temi Fagbenle  Ind   24  .500    5.1   7.3   2.1    .6    .7   .0    .18
.02  Damiris Dantas  Ind   16  .615   13.9   1.9    .7    .0   1.0   .0    .19
-.01  NaLyssa Smith  Ind    7  .000     .0   9.4    .0   2.2   5.3  2.6   -.36
-.03  Erica Wheeler  Ind   10  .500    4.2    .0   3.7    .0   1.7   .0   -.61

shooting : Con .549 - .489 Ind
rebounds: Ind 36.0 - 32.5 Con
turnovers: Con 8.5 - 13.0 Ind

Code: Select all

. Sun           min   PER  WS/40   e400      . Fever        min   PER  WS/40   e400
Alyssa Thomas   77   19.9   .238   2.03     Kelsey Mitchell 77    6.7  -.134    .12
Marina Mabrey   71   15.7   .135   1.41      Caitlin Clark  76   13.9  -.001   1.14
DeWanna Bonner  64   23.1   .301   2.15      Aliyah Boston  65   23.0   .143   2.05
D Carrington    59   14.3   .163    .98      Lexie Hull     60    8.5   .004    .17
Veronica Burton 44   17.2   .249   1.08      Temi Fagbenle  48    9.3   .038    .18
Brionna Jones   40    3.7  -.101    .28      Damiris Dantas 32   11.5   .047    .19
Olivia N-Ododa  38   25.1   .384   1.65      Erica Wheeler  19    4.2  -.012   -.61
.                                            NaLyssa Smith  13    2.6  -.182   -.36
. totals       400   17.0   .195   1.42      totals        400   11.3  -.004    .58

Min Lynx 2 - 0 Phx Mercury
avg score 101.5 - 91.5
Pyth wins 1.60 - .40 , eWins 1.30 - .70

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.55  Napheesa Collier Min   39  .755   34.7   5.1   3.3    .5   1.9  1.4   2.84
.31   Natasha Cloud   Phx   37  .645   19.0   5.9   6.6   1.0   3.0   .5   1.68
.16 Courtney Williams Min   25  .417   10.4   5.9   9.1   3.1   3.7   .0   1.35
.16   Alanna Smith    Min   26  .655   11.6   5.7   3.7   3.0   2.1  2.1   1.26
.16  Bridget Carleton Min   36  .800   11.4   5.1   3.6   1.6    .5   .0    .89

.14  Brittney Griner  Phx   30  .567   14.7   7.3    .0    .6   2.5  2.5    .93
.13   Kayla McBride   Min   35  .614   14.8   2.6   3.7    .0    .5   .0    .78
.09  Natisha Hiedeman Min   18  .462    8.3   3.8   9.1   1.0    .9   .0   1.04
.07   Natasha Mack    Phx   13  .609   12.4   9.8    .9    .0    .0  1.3   1.12
.06 Sophie Cunningham Phx   32  .650    5.6   5.6   2.7   1.7    .6   .6    .39

eWin   per36 rates    tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.06   Myisha H-Allen  Min   15  .550    9.9   9.3   3.0    .0   1.2   .0    .77
.04   Kahleah Copper  Phx   30  .492   12.0   6.0   2.1   1.2   4.3   .0    .28
.04  Monique Billings Phx   14  .727    7.3   9.1    .8   1.2    .0   .0    .57
.04   Diana Taurasi   Phx   30  .574   13.9   4.0   2.1   1.2   4.3   .0    .27
.01   Celeste Taylor  Phx   14  .833    5.2   2.6   4.0    .0    .0  1.2    .20
-.01 Ce. Zandalasini  Min    6  .250    2.3   2.7    .0   2.8    .0   .0   -.30

shooting : Min .627 - .592 Phx
rebounds: Phx 31.0 - 28.0 Min
turnovers: Min 8.5 - 12.5 Phx

Code: Select all

. Lynx            min   PER  WS/40   e400      . Mercury      min   PER   WS/40   e400
Napheesa Collier  78   37.5   .411   2.84      Natasha Cloud   73   25.7   .183   1.68
Bridget Carleton  71   16.5   .192    .89    Sophie Cunningham 63   10.6   .047    .39
Kayla McBride     69   15.5   .130    .78      Diana Taurasi   59    9.5  -.088    .27
Alanna Smith      51   18.0   .163   1.26      Kahleah Copper  59    7.1  -.142    .28
Courtney Williams 49   13.6  -.027   1.35      Brittney Griner 59   16.2  -.008    .93
Natisha Hiedeman  36   16.7   .123   1.04      Celeste Taylor  28   14.6   .111    .57
Myisha H-Allen    29   12.4   .089    .77     Monique Billings 28   18.1   .126    .20
C Zandalasini     12    1.6  -.153   -.30      Natasha Mack    26   23.8   .134   1.12
. Totals         400   19.2   .164   1.30      . Totals       400   15.0   .030    .70

[Mike G]

First round leaders -- 2 games for everyone.

Code: Select all

xyzW   Player           Tm  min   PER   WS/40   e400     pW    WS    eW
.68  Napheesa Collier  Min*  78   37.5   .411   2.84    .67   .82   .55
.54   Sabrina Ionescu   NY*  65   32.7   .400   3.03    .47   .66   .49
.46   A'ja Wilson       LV*  73   25.6   .260   2.72    .39   .49   .50
.39   Tiffany Hayes     LV*  51   30.1   .388   2.65    .33   .51   .34
.38   Alyssa Thomas    Con*  77   19.9   .238   2.03    .29   .47   .39

.38   DeWanna Bonner   Con*  64   23.1   .301   2.15    .30   .49   .34
.35   Natasha Cloud    Phx   73   25.7   .183   1.68    .39   .34   .31
.32   Jonquel Jones     NY*  56   24.3   .265   2.05    .28   .38   .29
.29   Aliyah Boston    Ind   65   23.0   .143   2.05    .30   .24   .33
.28   Leonie Fiebich    NY*  47   24.5   .294   2.01    .24   .35   .24

xyzW   Player           Tm  min   PER   WS/40   e400     pW    WS    eW
.26   Rhyne Howard     Atl   69   21.7   .117   1.59    .30   .21   .27
.24   Olivia N-Ododa   Con*  38   25.1   .384   1.65    .20   .37   .16
.24  Bridget Carleton  Min*  71   16.5   .192    .89    .21   .35   .16
.23   Breanna Stewart   NY*  70   16.5   .134   1.49    .20   .24   .26
.23   Marina Mabrey    Con*  71   15.7   .135   1.41    .19   .25   .25

.22   Chelsea Gray      LV*  64   16.6   .121   1.68    .19   .20   .27
.18   Kayla McBride    Min*  69   15.5   .130    .78    .18   .23   .13
.18   Alanna Smith     Min*  51   18.0   .163   1.26    .17   .21   .16
.18   Veronica Burton  Con*  44   17.2   .249   1.08    .14   .28   .12
.18 DiJonai Carrington Con*  59   14.3   .163    .98    .14   .25   .14

xyzW   Player           Tm  min   PER   WS/40   e400     pW    WS    eW
.17   Kelsey Plum       LV*  61   13.9   .144   1.07    .13   .22   .16
.17   Nneka Ogwumike   Sea   74   15.2   .041   1.31    .19   .08   .24
.16   Skylar D-Smith   Sea   72   15.2   .030   1.27    .18   .06   .23
.13   Allisha Gray     Atl   67   15.2   .052    .72    .17   .09   .12
.13   Caitlin Clark    Ind   76   13.9  -.001   1.14    .17   .00   .22

.12   Gabby Williams   Sea   74   13.4   .037    .81    .15   .07   .15
.12   Jackie Young      LV*  60   11.0   .084   1.05    .08   .13   .16
.10  Natisha Hiedeman  Min*  36   16.7   .123   1.04    .11   .11   .09
.10   Ezi Magbegor     Sea   28   18.6   .175   1.26    .10   .13   .09
.10   Jordan Horston   Sea   35   17.2   .154    .72    .11   .14   .06
.10   Brittney Griner  Phx   59   16.2  -.008    .93    .17  -.01   .14

That is 31, or just about 4 per team.

[Mike G]

Round 2

Lynx 1 - 1 Sun
avg score 73.5 - 71.5
Pythagorean wins 1.15 - .85 , eWins 1.07 - .93

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.45   Alyssa Thomas   Con   40  .603   19.5   7.9   7.0   2.3   2.3   .0   2.30
.31   Alanna Smith    Min   29  .568   14.5   8.1   3.9   1.9   1.9  3.8   2.15
.29  Napheesa Collier Min   39  .418   10.5   9.1   4.4   1.4   2.4  2.4   1.52
.25   DeWanna Bonner  Con   34  .397   11.4   8.0   4.2   2.8   1.1   .5   1.47
.18  DiJ. Carrington  Con   36  .491   13.3   5.7   2.0   1.6   1.0   .5   1.01

.16  Bridget Carleton Min   33  .765   21.4   2.1    .0   1.1   1.7   .0    .95
.13   Marina Mabrey   Con   38  .486   16.1   3.3   2.3    .5   3.4  1.0    .70
.10   Myisha H-Allen  Min   13  .591   20.5  11.3   1.4    .0   2.7   .0   1.64
.09 Courtney Williams Min   30  .446   13.2   5.0   5.0   1.2   4.9   .0    .63
.07   Kayla McBride   Min   37  .511   11.0   2.2   2.5   1.5   1.0   .0    .40

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.05   Olivia N-Ododa  Con   10  .600   11.8   8.8    .0   1.7    .0   .0    .99
.03  Ce. Zandalasini  Min    9  .833   16.6   3.7   2.1    .0   2.0   .0    .71
.01  Natisha Hiedeman Min   12  .429    7.1   3.9   4.4    .0   2.9  1.4    .23
.00   Brionna Jones   Con   16  .400    7.3   4.0   4.4    .0   2.3   .0    .04
-.12  Veronica Burton Con   24  .250    1.7   1.9   2.1    .0   2.2   .0   -.98

shooting : Min .523 - .469 Con
rebounds: Con 35.5 - 33.5 Min
turnovers: Con 10.5 - 13.0 Min


Liberty 2 - 0 Aces
avg score 87.5 - 80.5
Pyth wins 1.44 - .56 , eWins 1.22 - .78

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates     tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.41   Sabrina Ionescu  NY   38  .643   22.6   6.4   4.5   1.1   2.4  1.0   2.17
.40   Breanna Stewart  NY   37  .590   23.6   6.2   5.7   1.1   3.5   .5   2.18
.39   A'ja Wilson      LV   38  .592   20.7   6.7   3.8    .7   1.0  1.0   2.07
.22   Jonquel Jones    NY   34  .614   14.7  11.2   3.1    .4   3.8   .5   1.29
.21   Jackie Young     LV   33  .523   15.5   4.7   2.4   1.6   1.1  1.1   1.29

.14   Co. Vandersloot  NY   18  .652   15.2   4.9   4.5   2.1    .9   .9   1.63
.11   Alysha Clark     LV   30  .611   12.8   5.1   1.6    .9   1.2   .6    .73
.11   Tiffany Hayes    LV   22  .480    7.0   5.7   6.0   2.3    .8   .0    .97
.04   Kayla Thornton   NY   13  .733   15.8   2.6    .0    .0    .0  1.2    .67
.03   Kelsey Plum      LV   32  .536   14.5   2.4   2.4    .0   3.4   .0    .21

eWin   per36 rates     tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.02   Betnijah Laney   NY   24  .375    5.3   6.3   2.9   1.1   2.3   .8    .19
.00   Chelsea Gray     LV   32  .429    6.9   4.3   4.0    .0   2.9   .6    .01
-.01  Leonie Fiebich   NY   30  .750    8.6   1.9   1.7    .4    .6   .0   -.05
-.03  Kennedy Burke    NY    6  .250    2.1   2.8   2.6    .0   2.8   .0   -.91
-.05  Kiah Stokes      LV   11  .000     .0   6.7    .0    .0   1.6   .0   -.90

shooting : NY .597 - .526 LV
rebounds: NY 33.0 - 25.5 LV
turnovers: LV 11.0 - 13.0 NY

[Mike G]

Lynx 2 - 1 Sun
avg score 79.0 - 74.7
pyth wins 1.94 - 1.06 , eWins 1.72 - 1.28

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.57 Napheesa Collier Min   37  .491   15.7  10.3   3.9   1.6   2.0  2.0   2.09
.54   Alyssa Thomas  Con   39  .578   16.5   7.8   6.4   1.6   2.8   .0   1.83
.36  DeWanna Bonner  Con   34  .462   12.8   7.7   2.9   2.2    .7   .4   1.41
.33   Alanna Smith   Min   28  .622   13.8   7.2   3.0   1.3   2.6  3.9   1.58
.23   Co. Williams   Min   31  .526   15.6   3.8   6.1    .8   4.3   .4   1.01

.21  DiJ. Carrington Con   35  .455   11.4   5.5   1.9   1.8   1.0   .3    .81
.20 Bridget Carleton Min   33  .717   17.1   3.6    .0    .7   1.1   .7    .82
.19   Brionna Jones  Con   20  .569   18.9   4.2   4.8    .0   2.4   .0   1.27
.14   Marina Mabrey  Con   37  .434   12.6   3.7   2.7    .3   2.6  1.0    .51
.14   Kayla McBride  Min   37  .500   10.2   1.9   3.2   1.6    .7   .0    .49

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.12  Myisha H-Allen  Min   12  .577   14.3  11.3   3.5    .0   2.7   .0   1.31
.05  Ce. Zandalasini Min    9  .833   18.4   3.5   1.2    .0   2.4   .0    .68
.01 Natisha Hiedeman Min   10  .500    9.4   3.0   3.0   1.0   3.1  1.0    .18
.00  Olivia N-Ododa  Con   10  .500    5.6   7.7    .0   1.1   1.1   .0    .04
-.13 Veronica Burton Con   20  .300    2.7   1.5   2.6    .0   2.3   .0   -.87

shooting : Min .562 - .473 Con
rebounds: Con 34.7 - 32.0 Min
turnovers: Con 10.7 - 12.0 Min


Liberty 2 - 1 Aces
avg score 85.3 - 85.3
Pyth and eWins 1.50 - 1.50

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.61   A'ja Wilson     LV   36  .604   19.9   9.2   3.5    .5   1.7  1.0   2.22
.48  Breanna Stewart  NY   35  .562   20.2   6.0   4.1    .8   2.4   .3   1.82
.43   Jackie Young    LV   32  .574   19.4   5.4   3.0   1.1   1.1   .8   1.82
.34  Sabrina Ionescu  NY   35  .576   14.9   6.0   4.8    .8   3.5  1.0   1.27
.26   Jonquel Jones   NY   31  .613   14.0   9.9   2.5    .3   3.5   .8   1.13

.22   Tiffany Hayes   LV   20  .561   11.0   5.5   5.2   3.9   1.6   .0   1.46
.19  Co. Vandersloot  NY   18  .558   12.0   4.5   5.4   1.3   1.2  1.2   1.36
.19   Kelsey Plum     LV   33  .617   17.5   2.6   2.3    .5   2.6   .0    .76
.11   Alysha Clark    LV   29  .563    9.2   5.3   1.7   1.2    .8   .4    .52
.07   Chelsea Gray    LV   31  .452    7.7   3.2   5.1    .0   2.3  1.2    .31

eWin   per36 rates    tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.06   Nyara Sabally   NY    5  .833   24.2   7.3    .0   4.2   7.6  1.9   1.70
.03   Betnijah Laney  NY   23  .380    5.7   5.4   3.3   1.1   2.0   .5    .19
.03   Kayla Thornton  NY   13  .737   11.9   2.3    .0    .6    .0   .8    .33
.03   Leonie Fiebich  NY   29  .688    9.0   2.8   1.9    .3    .4   .0    .12
.00   Kennedy Burke   NY    6  .429    5.9   4.2   2.7   1.1   1.5   .0    .00

-.03 Megan Gustafson  LV    4  .000     .0   2.4   2.0    .0    .0   .0   -.84
-.04  Sydney Colson   LV    5  .400    4.6    .0   4.7   2.6   7.3   .0   -.99
-.05  Kiah Stokes     LV    7  .000     .0   6.1    .0    .0   1.5   .0  -1.02

shooting : NY .574 - .560 LV
rebounds: NY 33.7 - 28.3 LV
turnovers: LV 10.7 - 12.3 NY

[Crow]

5 on 5. Benches matter very little. Moreso than NBA? Probably.

[Mike G]

Lynx 2 - 2 Sun
avg score 79.8 - 79.0
Pyth wins 2.10 - 1.90 , eWins 2.05 - 1.95

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.89 Napheesa Collier Min   37  .553   19.0  10.7   3.5   1.5   2.2  1.7   2.43
.74   Alyssa Thomas  Con   39  .555   15.4   8.3   7.1   1.4   2.8   .0   1.92
.62  DeWanna Bonner  Con   34  .513   14.3   8.4   3.1   2.7   1.1   .5   1.82
.39   Alanna Smith   Min   28  .673   13.6   6.2   3.4   1.0   2.9  3.6   1.41
.36  DiJ Carrington  Con   35  .500   11.9   5.4   2.1   1.8    .8   .5   1.01

.32   Co. Williams   Min   29  .531   14.9   3.6   6.0   1.3   3.5   .3   1.11
.17   Brionna Jones  Con   19  .554   16.9   4.1   3.8    .0   2.9   .0    .88
.12   Kayla McBride  Min   36  .488    8.0   1.9   3.8   1.3    .5   .0    .33
.11 Natisha Hiedeman Min   14  .605   16.0   1.7   3.4   1.8   3.0   .6    .83
.10   Marina Mabrey  Con   37  .444   10.9   3.8   2.0    .2   2.2  1.0    .27

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.09  Myisha H-Allen  Min   10  .545   13.4  10.5   3.7    .0   4.7   .0    .84
.07   Dorka Juhász   Min    4  .833   13.0  10.7   3.5    .0    .0   .0   1.60
.07   Tyasha Harris  Con   11  .714   18.7   2.3    .0    .0   1.6   .0    .62
.03 Bridget Carleton Min   33  .587   10.4   3.2    .3    .6   1.1   .8    .10
.03  Ce. Zandalasini Min    9  .813   16.6   2.7    .9    .0   2.9   .0    .32

.01  Olivia N-Ododa  Con    8  .500    5.0   9.1    .0   1.1   1.1   .0    .11
-.11 Veronica Burton Con   18  .361    3.7   1.8   2.5    .9   1.9   .0   -.63

shooting : Min .570 - .508 Con
rebounds: Con 33.3 - 30.8 Min
turnovers: Con 10.3 - 12.3 Min


Liberty 3 - 1 Aces
avg score 83.0 - 79.5
Pyth wins 2.48 - 1.52 , eWins 2.24 - 1.76

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.82   A'ja Wilson     LV   37  .597   19.7   8.6   2.9    .6   1.5  2.0   2.26
.74  Breanna Stewart  NY   36  .524   19.0   7.5   4.4    .8   2.3  1.3   2.05
.54  Sabrina Ionescu  NY   36  .612   18.4   6.0   4.3   1.0   3.6   .8   1.53
.39   Jackie Young    LV   31  .504   14.6   5.2   2.9   1.1    .9   .6   1.26
.35   Jonquel Jones   NY   30  .612   15.7   9.1   2.1    .2   3.0   .6   1.17

.27   Tiffany Hayes   LV   20  .548   13.1   5.2   5.0   2.7   2.1   .4   1.39
.27  Co. Vandersloot  NY   18  .582   14.2   3.9   5.8   1.1   1.8  1.4   1.46
.23   Kelsey Plum     LV   34  .573   16.1   2.2   1.9   1.0   1.9   .0    .69
.19   Leonie Fiebich  NY   29  .717   11.4   4.1   2.7    .5    .3   .0    .67
.11   Chelsea Gray    LV   32  .449    7.3   2.7   5.4    .7   2.6  1.1    .33

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.10   Alysha Clark    LV   30  .500    6.8   5.1   2.5   1.2    .6   .3    .33
.08   Nyara Sabally   NY    4  .833   29.2   7.9    .0   4.9   8.4  2.1   2.25
-.00  Betnijah Laney  NY   24  .328    4.4   5.8   2.6   1.2   1.9   .4   -.01
-.02  Kayla Thornton  NY   13  .560    7.8   3.7    .0    .5    .7   .7   -.13
-.02  Kennedy Burke   NY    8  .273    2.7   7.4   1.9    .8   2.0   .0   -.25

-.05  Sydney Colson   LV    5  .286    3.3    .0   4.6   2.2   6.8   .0  -1.16
-.06  Megan Gustafson LV    5  .333    1.7   1.5   1.5    .0   1.6   .0  -1.11
-.06  Kiah Stokes     LV    5  .000     .0   6.0    .0    .0   1.6   .0  -1.07

shooting : NY .554 - .527 LV
rebounds: NY 37.3 - 28.0 LV
turnovers: LV 9.5 - 12.5 NY

Code: Select all

. NY       min   PER   WS/40   e400     . LV     min   PER   WS/40   e400
Stewart    145   22.1   .181   2.05      Wilson  146   23.4   .169   2.26
Ionescu    142   17.7   .136   1.53      Plum    137   12.3   .044    .69
Jones      120   15.2   .136   1.17      Gray    128    9.0  -.028    .33
Fiebich    116   13.8   .201    .67      Young   123   16.1   .081   1.26
Laney       94    3.2  -.049   -.01      Clark   119    9.1   .082    .33
Vandersloot 73   19.8   .217   1.46      Hayes    79   18.9   .172   1.39
Thornton    50    8.2   .113   -.13      Stokes   21   -3.9  -.132  -1.07
Burke       32   -1.0  -.100   -.25    Gustafson  20   -3.6  -.110  -1.11
Sabally     15   21.8   .113   2.25      Colson   18   -9.6  -.363  -1.16
. totals   800   14.9   .131   1.12    . totals  800   13.2   .062    .88

2nd round numbers are current figures minus the 1st round (* minutes).

[Mike G]

Lynx 3 - 2 Sun
avg score 81.4 - 78.6
Pyth wins 2.97 - 2.03 , eWins 2.73 - 2.27

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
1.21 Napheesa Collier Min   37  .579   21.6  10.3   3.5   1.4   2.2  2.2   2.64
.68   Alyssa Thomas   Con   39  .541   13.2   7.4   6.8   1.1   3.0   .0   1.40
.64   DeWanna Bonner  Con   34  .507   14.1   8.7   2.5   2.3   1.7   .4   1.51
.57 Courtney Williams Min   29  .571   18.6   3.9   6.3   1.5   3.7   .5   1.56
.48   Alanna Smith    Min   29  .698   13.7   5.4   3.4   1.0   2.6  3.3   1.33

.45  DiJ. Carrington  Con   35  .483   12.4   6.9   1.9   2.1   1.9   .6   1.03
.34   Brionna Jones   Con   20  .571   19.4   6.8   3.0    .0   3.3  1.1   1.38
.22   Kayla McBride   Min   35  .508   10.4   1.9   3.9   1.3   1.0   .0    .51
.20  Natisha Hiedeman Min   14  .647   17.2   2.6   3.5   1.9   2.3   .5   1.13
.13   Marina Mabrey   Con   32  .469   11.9   3.5   1.8    .2   2.0   .9    .34

eWin   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e400
.11   Tyasha Harris   Con   16  .696   17.3   1.8    .4    .4   1.3   .0    .56
.06   Dorka Juhász    Min    4  .833   12.5   9.4   3.2    .0    .0   .0   1.31
.04   Myisha H-Allen  Min   11  .513   10.4   8.3   3.4    .0   4.8   .6    .33
.01   Olivia N-Ododa  Con    6  .500    5.0   8.9    .0   1.0   1.0   .0    .10
.00  Bridget Carleton Min   32  .517    8.4   2.9    .6    .7    .9   .9    .00

-.05 Ce. Zandalasini  Min    9  .542    8.1   3.3    .7    .0   2.1   .0   -.40
-.10 Veronica Burton  Con   18  .320    3.0   1.4   2.9   1.1   1.5   .7   -.44

shooting : Min .571 - .508 Con
rebounds: Con 33.6 - 30.4 Min
turnovers: Con 11.8 - 12.2 Min

Code: Select all

Min Lynx   min   PER   WS/40   e400      Con Sun   min   PER   WS/40   e400
Collier    184   28.7   .280   2.64      Thomas    194   18.5   .128   1.40
McBride    177   12.2   .077    .51     Carrington 176   15.0   .082   1.03
Carleton   162    8.4   .060    .00      Bonner    170   17.9   .129   1.51
Williams   147   18.4   .118   1.56      Mabrey    160    8.5  -.005    .34
Smith      143   16.6   .140   1.33      Jones      99   17.7   .094   1.38
Hiedeman    70   18.2   .164   1.13      Burton     91    4.1  -.036   -.44
Hines-Allen 53    8.4  -.029    .33      Harris     78   11.4   .108    .56
Zandalasini 45    3.2  -.060   -.40    Nelson-Ododa 30   12.6   .037    .10
Juhász      18   21.6   .317   1.31                  
. totals   1000  16.1   .125   1.09      . totals  1000  14.1   .077    .91

https://www.basketball-reference.com/wn ... anced.html

[Mike G]

A Finals preview.
Ranked by minutes, 1st and 2nd round rates and totals.

Code: Select all

Breanna Stewart    NY      Min   Napheesa Collier
PER   WS/40   e400     rd      PER   WS/40   e400
16.5   .134   1.49      1      37.5   .411   2.84
22.1   .181   2.05      2      28.7   .280   2.64
20.3   .166   1.87     12      31.3   .319   2.70
                        
Sabrina Ionescu    NY      Min   Kayla McBride 
PER   WS/40   e400     rd      PER   WS/40   e400
32.7   .400   3.03      1      15.5   .130    .78
17.7   .136   1.53      2      12.2   .077    .51
22.4   .219   2.00     12      13.1   .092    .58
                        
Jonquel Jones      NY      Min   Bridget Carleton
24.3   .265   2.05      1      16.5   .192    .89
15.2   .136   1.17      2       8.4   .060    .00
18.1   .177   1.45     12      10.9   .100    .27
                        
Leonie Fiebich     NY      Min  Courtney Williams
PER   WS/40   e400     rd      PER   WS/40   e400
24.5   .294   2.01      1      13.6  -.027   1.35
13.8   .201    .67      2      18.4   .118   1.56
16.9   .228   1.06     12      17.2   .082   1.51
                        
Betnijah Laney     NY      Min   Alanna Smith 
_6.7   .034    .22      1      18.0   .163   1.26
_3.2  -.049   -.01      2      16.6   .140   1.33
_4.6  -.016    .08     12      17.0   .146   1.31
                        
Courtney Vandersloot NY    Min   Natisha Hiedeman
14.8   .131   1.14      1      16.7   .123   1.04
19.8   .217   1.46      2      18.2   .164   1.13
18.3   .191   1.36     12      17.7   .150   1.10
                        
Kayla Thornton     NY      Min  Myisha Hines-Allen
PER   WS/40   e400     rd      PER   WS/40   e400
_2.9   .023   -.30      1      12.4   .089    .77
_8.2   .113   -.13      2       8.4  -.029    .33
_6.2   .079   -.20     12       9.8   .013    .49
                        
Kennedy Burke      NY     Min Cecilia Zandalasini
_5.0  -.019   -.19      1*      4.0  -.030   -.30
-1.0  -.100   -.25      2*      3.2  -.060   -.40
_0.5  -.079   -.23     12       3.4  -.054   -.38
                        
Nyara Sabally      NY      Min   Dorka Juhász 
_6.0   .003    .03      1*     17.0   .166   1.66
21.8   .113   2.25      2*     21.6   .317   1.31
12.6   .049    .95     12      21.4   .309   1.33

Both team feature 5 starters averaging >26 minutes; 2 more going 12-18 mpg; and 2 at <8 mpg.
* Since I somehow failed to save 1st round PER and WS/40 for the bottom 2 on each side, their 1st and 2nd round rates are estimated.

[Crow]

#1 faces #2. Both 2 way strong.

Liberty the better rebounding team despite Lynx having 8 at over over 170 lbs to Liberty's 6.

[Crow]

Liberty had a 50% lead at halftime on total rebounds. 90% and growing on offensive rebounds in early 2nd half.

Tight because of difference in 2pt shooting.

Ionescu 4 for 17 at the moment.