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2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Tue Oct 28, 2025 2:05 am
by Mike G
Another way-too-early to be meaningful thread, but someday it could have meaning.
Code: Select all
Prob% M-V-P ! tm PER WS/48 BPM
.390 Luka Doncic Dal 43.4 .435 16.2
.341 V Wembanyama SAS 43.5 .489 16.1
.100 Giannis A Mil 43.0 .425 15.0
.099 Shai G-A OKC 33.1 .321 9.7
.044 Austin Reaves LAL 35.0 .393 11.0
.015 Tyrese Maxey Phl 25.4 .259 6.9
.004 Chet Holmgren OKC 25.4 .274 4.5
.004 Nikola Vucevic Chi 23.1 .264 5.6
.002 LaMelo Ball Cha 28.0 .291 7.8
.001 Stephen Curry GSW 34.2 .281 12.1
No Nuggets!?!
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2025 3:28 pm
by Mike G
Next In Line shown below.
Code: Select all
Prob M!V!P! tm W% PER WS/48 BPM
.481 Wemby SAS 1.00 36.9 .406 13.1
.363 Giannis Mil .80 41.9 .418 15.6
.068 Shai OKC 1.00 29.8 .279 9.2
.036 Maxey Phl .80 25.6 .240 6.7
.022 Jokic Den .60 29.5 .340 12.9
.010 Reaves LAL .67 28.0 .269 6.5
.009 Vucevic Chi 1.00 23.8 .244 6.1
.007 Holmgren OKC 1.00 23.8 .255 5.7
.003 Giddey Chi 1.00 21.0 .162 3.3
.001 K Johnson SAS 1.00 21.2 .301 3.3
Prob M!V!P! tm W% PER WS/48 BPM
--- Doncic LAL .67 38.1 .347 14.0
--- Curry GSW .67 26.1 .222 8.2
--- Markkanen Uta .40 26.8 .261 7.8
--- Sengun Hou .50 24.2 .232 7.4
--- Randle Min .40 25.9 .224 7.0
Keldon Johnson is shooting .740 TS% with 12 pts and 6 reb. in 24 mpg off the bench.
Team Win% is quite a factor right now.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2025 4:16 pm
by Crow
Doncic is with LAL.
10-15 names gives clues of possible future candidates but the current season contest is probably between 5-6 guys.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2025 4:24 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Sat Nov 01, 2025 4:16 pm
Doncic is with LAL.
What? Nobody tells me anything.
Most of these guys will be long gone once their teams have lost a game or two.
I'm curious why Steph isn't top 10. Same win% and surely better than Reaves; or almost as good.
I just like recording this stuff that will seem like ancient history in a few months.
One or more of the Big Five will likely break something.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Nov 01, 2025 4:47 pm
by Crow
Wemby seems destined to win one, sooner or later. Doncic probably still is but might be less likely.
Next most likely new guy...
Maxey? I dunno. Sengun likely to compete for it.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2025 6:29 pm
by Mike G
The usual suspects...
Code: Select all
Prob player tm W% PER WS/48 BPM
.437 Shai OKC 1.00 31.8 .328 11.1
.300 Jokic Den .67 32.0 .364 15.2
.094 Giannis Mil .63 39.2 .375 13.9
.052 Wemby SAS .83 30.7 .290 8.2
.052 Maxey Phl .71 25.3 .244 7.3
.030 Reaves LAL .75 26.4 .242 6.3
.015 Giddey Chi .86 22.6 .178 4.8
.009 Vucevic Chi .86 23.4 .227 5.4
.006 Hart'stein OKC 1.00 19.1 .222 2.2
.005 Sengun Hou .67 21.9 .214 5.9
other player tm W% PER WS/48 BPM
--- Doncic Dal .29 34.1 .293 11.6
--- Randle Min .57 26.2 .244 7.6
--- Markkanen Uta .43 23.9 .202 5.8
--- Duren Det .71 26.1 .244 3.2
--- Leonard LAC .43 25.2 .183 4.9
"other" = top 10 in BPM or PER
UPDATE one day later:
Code: Select all
Prob MVP tm W% PER WS/48 BPM
.708 Jokic Den .71 34.0 .392 17.1
.145 Shai OKC .89 30.8 .315 10.4
.074 Giannis Mil .63 39.3 .376 14.0
.029 Reaves LAL .78 26.5 .242 6.4
.012 Giddey Chi .86 22.6 .179 5.0
.011 Maxey Phl .63 24.7 .223 6.7
.007 Vucevic Che .86 23.4 .228 5.6
.007 Wemby SAS .71 27.8 .244 6.2
.005 Sengun Hou .71 21.5 .200 5.5
.002 Hart'ein OKC .89 18.6 .211 1.9
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2025 2:11 pm
by Mike G
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/679585 ... l-share-ta
John Hollinger:
"Luka. SGA. Joker. Giannis.
Whatever name you use, they are the four best players in the NBA. That seemed clear enough as the season was about to begin, but the events of the first three weeks have only furthered the idea that these four guys are on one level and everyone else is on another."
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2025 12:01 am
by Mike G
In season PER, WS/48, and BPM, there are 5 players who rank top 10 in all 3.
Six others (in no particular order) are top ten in 2 of the 3.
Code: Select all
mvp? eFG% Reb Ast St+Bk Pts TS% PER WS/48 BPM
Jokic .740 13.1 10.9 2.5 28.8 .773 39.3 .467 20.8
Shai .571 5.2 6.6 2.3 32.5 .644 32.1 .352 12.5
Giannis .650 11.5 7.3 2.3 32.6 .660 34.9 .295 11.3
Doncic .543 8.9 9.2 2.2 33.7 .601 28.1 .211 9.2
Randle .603 7.5 6.1 1.6 25.4 .662 25.7 .247 6.9
Mitchell .599 4.5 5.5 2.0 30.5 .650 24.9 .193 7.7
Sengun .553 10.2 7.4 2.3 22.1 .599 23.1 .222 6.8
Duren .647 12.0 1.6 2.3 19.4 .705 26.4 .263 4.0
Wemby .548 12.9 4.0 4.7 26.2 .609 25.8 .208 6.1
Curry .588 3.5 3.7 2.0 29.1 .648 25.2 .184 7.3
Edwards .599 4.1 3.4 1.4 27.5 .649 25.7 .194 6.1
Just missing are Jimmy Butler and Jalen Johnson.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2025 12:11 am
by Crow
Nuggets with Jokic on court, almost +21 / 100p. SGA +16ish, Giannis A. +10, Doncic +3.
Nuggets don't face Thunder til Feb. 1.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2025 6:42 pm
by Mike G
EDIT: Updates as of Apr 7, 2026 are like [this]. 3-4 remaining games per team.
Progressive best-ever stats:
Code: Select all
PER year player
26.0 1955 Neil Johnston
27.4 1956 Bob Pettit
28.3 1957 Pettit
32.1 1962 Wilt Chamberlain
32.8 2022 Nikola Jokic
38.3 * 2026 Jokic [32.2]
WS/48 year player
.282 1955 Larry Foust
.286 1962 Wilt Chamberlain
.325 1964 Wilt
.326 1971 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
.340 1972 Kareem
.449 * 2026 Nikola Jokic [.312 -- Shai .327]
BPM year player
7.53 1974 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
7.64 1975 Kareem
8.54 1976 Kareem
9.38 1977 Kareem
10.80 1987 Michael Jordan
12.96 1988 Jordan
13.24 2009 LeBron James
13.72 2022 Nikola Jokic
20.2 * 2026 Jokic [14.1]
* - thru 1/6 of a season
A recurring theme, again in the alltime top 10 seasons for these stats:
Code: Select all
PER year player
38.3 * 2026 Nikola Jokic [32.2]
34.8 * 2026 Giannis Antetokounmpo [32.7]
32.9 * 2026 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [31.0]
32.8 2022 Jokic
32.1 1962 Wilt Chamberlain
32.0 2022 Giannis
32.0 2025 Jokic
31.9 2020 Giannis
31.8 1963 Wilt
31.7 1988 Michael Jordan
WS/48 year player
.449 * 2026 Nikola Jokic [.312]
.366 * 2026 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [.327]
.340 1972 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
.326 1971 Kareem
.325 1964 Wilt Chamberlain
.323 1973 Kareem
.322 2013 LeBron James
.321 1991 Michael Jordan
.318 2009 LeBron
.318 2016 Stephen Curry
BPM year player
20.2 * 2026 Nikola Jokic [14.1]
13.7 2022 Jokic
13.3 2025 Jokic
13.2 2009 LeBron James
13.2 2024 Jokic
13.2 * 2026 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander [11.8]
13.0 2023 Jokic
13.0 1988 Michael Jordan
12.1 2021 Jokic
12.0 1991 Jordan
[Giannis' 1079 minutes in 36 games are well short of 'qualifying', but his season 32.7 PER is one of the 2 best ever, if allowed.]
EDIT : Joel Embiid, the year after his MVP season, posted PER of 34.1 in 1309 min./ 39 G.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 05, 2025 12:27 am
by Mike G
Jokic carried a 90%+ chance of taking MVP for a week or 2, and now it's daily becoming more like a race.
Code: Select all
Prob m-v-p tm W% PER WS WS/48 BPM VORP
.559 Jokic Den .71 35.4 5.9 .389 16.9 3.5
.377 Shai OKC .96 33.1 5.9 .382 13.1 2.8
.041 Luka LAL .75 29.3 2.9 .234 9.5 1.7
.006 Reaves LAL .75 24.2 2.9 .220 5.3 1.1
.005 Sengun Hou .74 22.7 3.0 .208 6.6 1.5
.003 Cade C Det .77 21.4 2.2 .151 4.7 1.2
.003 I. Hart. OKC .96 21.1 2.7 .248 4.2 .8
.002 Maxey Phl .55 24.0 3.3 .199 6.8 1.8
.002 Holmgren OKC .96 19.8 2.2 .194 2.7 .6
.002 Duren Det .77 24.9 2.8 .239 3.1 .7
Prob m-v-p tm W% PER WS WS/48 BPM VORP
---- Giannis Mil .44 34.9 2.9 .281 10.9 1.6
---- Wemby SAS .71 25.7 1.6 .187 6.6 .9
---- Mitchell Cle .57 24.4 2.7 .182 6.5 1.6
---- Butler GSW .50 24.2 3.4 .261 6.5 1.3
---- Bridges NYK .67 19.7 3.2 .207 6.4 1.6
---- Harden LAC .27 23.5 2.4 .156 5.5 1.4
---- Avdija Por .41 21.0 2.5 .161 4.9 1.3
Joker started slow but then went on a tear for the ages. Shai has belatedly started to catch up, and is close or dead even in some stats.
BPM gets my vote as most meaningful here, and we can grab "game BPM" from the Advanced Game Logs at b-r.com
A bpm-game is here defined as
gBPM*min/48
Side by side log of Jokic and Shai bpmG, and 4-game and 8-game averages thru the game# in column 1.
(Parentheses indicate less than the full number -- 4 or 8 -- but still something to compare.)
Code: Select all
G JbpmG SbpmG Jx4 Sx4 Jx8 Sx8
1 -1.4 6.2
2 10.2 13.3 (4.4 9.8)
3 15.9 11.6 (8.2 10.4)
4 10.6 3.5 8.8 8.7
5 13.6 6.7 12.6 8.8 ( 9.8 8.3)
6 19.7 8.0 14.9 7.5 (11.4 8.2)
7 22.3 3.6 16.6 5.5 (13.0 7.6)
8 12.9 15.4 17.1 8.4 13.0 8.5
9 14.3 3.6 17.3 7.7 14.9 8.2
10 17.0 6.3 16.6 7.2 15.8 7.3
11 25.1 13.5 17.3 9.7 16.9 7.6
12 10.2 12.1 16.6 8.9 16.9 8.7
13 12.1 12.2 16.1 11.0 16.7 9.3
14 1.8 14.8 12.3 13.1 14.5 10.2
15 13.2 10.3 9.3 12.3 13.3 11.0
16 12.7 5.1 9.9 10.6 13.3 9.7
17 14.2 6.4 10.5 9.1 13.3 10.1
18 5.9 15.0 11.5 9.2 11.9 11.2
19 11.6 16.7 11.1 10.8 10.2 11.6
20 10.8 8.6 10.6 11.6 10.3 11.1
21 4.8 1.1 8.3 10.3 9.4 9.7
22 8.2 (9.1) 8.6 (10.4) 8.9
Jokic has 4 bpmG better than any by Shai; the 8 best 4-game runs, and the 12 best 8-game stretches to date.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2025 2:30 am
by Mike G
Perhaps one of the last legit rankings, as the games threshold chokes off some leaders.
In addition to the b-r.com list of 10, another 20 who are better in VORP or WS or both.
Code: Select all
Prob% mvp? tm W% min TS% PER WS/48 BPM e484
.744 Jokic Den .69 1087 .713 35.5 .377 16.4 3.52
.219 Shai OKC .85 1033 .678 32.4 .359 12.8 3.34
.014 Doncic LAL .67 834 .607 27.8 .194 8.0 2.68
.008 Cunningham Det .75 1038 .570 22.1 .175 6.0 2.17
.004 Brunson NYK .72 993 .597 22.5 .189 3.6 1.97
.003 Sengun Hou .67 926 .573 22.3 .181 5.7 2.06
.002 Towns NYK .72 953 .611 21.8 .190 2.6 2.08
.002 Reaves LAL .67 812 .666 23.1 .187 4.2 1.87
.002 Murray Den .69 1054 .621 21.8 .169 3.4 1.85
.002 Holmgren OKC .85 776 .668 20.9 .206 3.0 2.00
Prob% mvp? tm W% min TS% PER WS/48 BPM e484
---- Maxey Phl .53 1111 .596 22.3 .172 6.2 1.98
---- Mitchell Cle .53 1017 .626 23.3 .164 5.8 2.16
---- J Johnson Atl .44 1063 .618 22.6 .165 5.1 2.09
---- Bridges NYK .72 1094 .626 17.6 .170 4.4 1.30
---- Avdija Por .42 1124 .612 20.2 .147 4.2 1.78
---- Giannis Mil .42 520 .673 35.1 .281 11.0 3.43
---- Edwards Min .64 879 .628 22.6 .162 5.6 2.06
---- Harden LAC .32 1039 .621 22.4 .154 4.6 1.89
---- Butler GSW .52 885 .646 22.8 .242 5.3 1.92
---- Barnes Tor .59 1124 .583 19.4 .139 3.7 1.75
Prob% mvp? tm W% min TS% PER WS/48 BPM e484
---- Kawhi LAC .32 712 .624 26.2 .182 6.8 2.28
---- J Brown Bos .61 981 .598 23.9 .151 4.3 2.26
---- M Porter Brk .33 821 .629 22.0 .139 5.2 2.07
---- Curry GSW .52 738 .636 23.1 .160 6.1 2.27
---- Wemby SAS .72 574 .618 27.0 .200 8.1 2.74
---- Randle Min .64 1086 .598 20.5 .176 3.4 1.81
---- Durant Hou .67 973 .646 20.8 .186 3.8 1.74
---- Gobert Min .64 1048 .687 17.5 .184 0.9 1.33
---- Duren Det .75 835 .671 23.7 .220 2.6 2.19
---- Ware Mia .54 820 .662 21.5 .209 3.2 1.80
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2026 3:21 pm
by Mike G
Joker has played 32 games and leads the league in Win Shares and in VORP.
If we just double his totals, he has an alltime top-10 VORP season and does not win MVP due to <65 games.
He was on pace to have the highest-ever totals in both stats when projected to 79 games.
Best VORP seasons ever:
Code: Select all
player year status G WS VORP
Jokic 2026 >-> 32 8.7 5.1
Jokic*2 2026 --> 64 17.4 10.2
Jokic2+ 2026 >-- 79 21.5 12.6
Jordan 1988 MVP 82 21.2 12.5
LeBron 2009 MVP 81 20.3 11.8
Jordan 1989 1st 81 19.8 11.4
Jordan 1991 MVP 82 20.3 10.8
Jokic 2024 MVP 79 17.0 10.6
Jordan 1990 1st 82 19.0 10.6
Jordan 1987 1st 82 16.9 10.6
LeBron 2010 MVP 76 18.5 10.3
Jordan 1993 1st 78 17.2 10.2
Under 'status', the non-MVP's were
1st team all-NBA.
Jordan is not bad company on this list. Since 1974, 25 player-seasons w 17.5+ WS.
Only 6 seasons beat the 64-game line in both stats -- Jordan and LeBron in a lot more games.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2026 2:24 pm
by Mike G
Looking like it could be a race, though perhaps not for good reasons.
Final column is
need to play games needed to reach the stupid65games rule.
Code: Select all
prob mvp? tm W% PER WS WS/48 BPM VORP ntp
.533 Jokic Den .606 32.8 12.7 .318 14.4 7.9 *10
.351 Shai OKC .786 31.4 13.5 .333 12.1 6.9 7
.051 Luka LAL .643 28.2 8.9 .206 9.4 6.0 7
.021 Cade Det .729 22.0 7.8 .180 6.5 4.5 4
.018 Wemby SAS .743 28.3 7.9 .236 9.6 4.7 10
.009 Duren Det .729 26.2 9.2 .265 4.8 2.8 5
.005 Holmgren SAS .786 21.3 7.8 .213 3.8 2.6 5
.005 Brown Bos .671 22.4 6.4 .142 3.7 3.1 2
.004 Towns NYK .548 21.5 8.2 .192 2.7 2.5 0
.004 Brunson NYK .548 20.1 7.8 .164 3.1 2.9 0
prob mvp? tm W% PER WS WS/48 BPM VORP ntp
---- Maxey Phl .543 22.6 8.0 .164 5.9 4.6 4
---- Kawhi LAC .486 28.3 7.8 .214 8.3 4.5 11
---- Mitchell Cle .614 23.1 7.3 .172 5.3 3.8 4
---- Durant Hou .609 20.8 8.7 .173 4.1 3.7 0
---- Edwards Min .606 22.3 6.7 .156 4.9 3.6 *7
The extra 5 rank top 10 in vorp.
* means 11 games left on the schedule. All others have 12 games to meet their mark.
Re: 2026 MVP Tracker
Posted: Wed Apr 08, 2026 1:42 am
by Mike G
Players ranked by their rankings in some 'advanced' stats, by best worst ranking.
Code: Select all
ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS PER AS
Jokic 1 1 2 2 1 *
Shai 2 2 1 1 2 *
Wemby 4 3 4 5 3 *
Doncic 3 4 9 6 5 *
Kawhi 5 5 5 10 4 *
J Murray 10 16 17 8 12 *
Duren 18 9 3 3 6 *
Durant 8 13 15 4 19 *
Spida 11 8 20 18 8 *
Cade 7 6 14 21 13 *
ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS PER AS
Sengun 13 12 21 20 16 *
Holmgren 26 19 7 12 18 *
Towns 27 28 10 9 15 *
Maxey 6 7 28 14 11 *
Brunson 22 27 23 13 29 *
Harden 15 18 30 24 20
Edwards 14 10 35 31 14 *
Clingan 35 31 11 17 22
Avdija 20 14 36 33 24 *
Jalen J 9 11 38 23 21 *
ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS PER AS
Amen 21 41 22 7 37
J Brown 16 20 43 29 9 *
Zion 40 29 27 44 7
Kon 19 21 26 16 47
Queta 49 43 6 15 31
S Barnes 12 17 52 26 33 *
Mamu 52 36 19 57 41
LaMelo 25 15 40 60 32
J Allen 63 32 8 35 10
Pritch'd 31 50 29 19 64
ranks: VORP BPM WS/48 WS PER
Ware 67 53 16 49 27
Diabate 68 59 12 27 55
D White 17 22 60 30 74
Giannis 23 (4) (5) 75 (1) *
Gobert 62 75 13 11 48
Mikal B 24 39 41 22 100
I Joe 78 48 18 70 103
Lauri 69 37 78 126 17
Included are top 25 VORP, and top 20 in anything else, minutes >1400
A bunch of bigs slip in by virtue of WS and being big,