Page 1 of 2

2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Tue May 05, 2026 2:12 pm
by Mike G
Knicks 1 - 0 Sixers
137 - 98
Pythagorean wins .99 - .01 , eWins .74 - .26

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.18   Jalen Brunson   NY   31  .795   47.8   1.4   3.2   2.1   1.3   .0   2.75
.12   Karl-A Towns    NY   21  .773   35.9  12.6   9.5    .0   5.7  3.5   2.79
.10   Mikal Bridges   NY   26  .850   29.1   3.4   6.4   1.3    .0   .0   1.93
.09   Josh Hart       NY   26  .500    8.7  13.5   7.6   3.8   1.5  1.4   1.65
.09   Paul George    Phl   26  .739   28.7   6.3   3.5    .0   1.4   .0   1.61

.08   OG Anunoby      NY   30  1.00   30.4   4.4   1.1    .0   2.6  1.2   1.35
.07   Kelly Oubre    Phl   26  .706   19.8  10.4   1.2   1.7   2.8  1.4   1.27
.05  Ariel Hukporti   NY   18  1.00   12.8  20.4    .0    .0   2.0  3.8   1.36
.05  Dominick Barlow Phl   13  .875   24.1  11.5    .0   3.1    .0   .0   1.83
.04   Tyler Kolek     NY   10  .800   33.5    .0  12.1    .0   3.6   .0   2.07

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Joel Embiid    Phl   25  .452   15.8   8.7   1.2    .0   1.5   .0    .75
.03   Pacôme Dadiet   NY    9  .667   14.9   4.4   6.7   3.4    .0   .0   1.39
.02   Jose Alvarado   NY    9  .625   16.3   4.4   3.4   3.4    .0   .0   1.19
.02   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   28  .500   12.8   1.9   2.1   1.5   1.3   .0    .34
.02   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   27  .520   16.4   6.0   2.2    .0   5.5   .0    .34

.02   Miles McBride   NY   16  .667   15.3    .0   3.8    .0    .0   .0    .51
.01  Quentin Grimes  Phl   24  .500    5.9   2.1   4.7   1.7    .0   .0    .26
.01   Mi. Robinson    NY   12  .333    2.8  13.4   2.5    .0    .0   .0    .32
.00  Trendon Watford Phl   13  .417   10.0   3.8   2.1   3.1   5.2   .0    .14
.00   Dalen Terry    Phl   12  .375    5.1    .0   2.3   3.3    .0   .0    .11

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.00  Landry Shamet   NY   12  .375    4.9    .0   5.1   2.5   3.0   .0   -.12
-.00  Justin Edwards Phl   17  .667   18.0    .0    .0    .0   4.0   .0   -.14
-.01  Jabari Walker  Phl   11  .333    3.5   9.1    .0    .0   3.1   .0   -.33
-.01  Andre Drummond Phl    9  .000     .0  16.5    .0    .0   7.5   .0   -.51
-.03 Jordan Clarkson  NY   13  .500    4.1   6.2    .0   2.3  11.2   .0  -1.01
shooting : NY .741 - .544 Phl + 26.5
rebounds: NY 39 - 28 Phl + 8.6
turnovers: NY 15 - 19 Phl + 5.3
note: the final column here is the expected point-differential gained from each stat advantage.

Code: Select all

. Phl    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . NYK    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Edgc'mbe 28   10.1  -.188   -2.9    .34      Brunson  31   42.6   .607   13.3   2.75
Maxey    27    7.9  -.280   -9.1    .34      Anunoby  30   21.0   .283    4.2   1.35
Oubre    26   19.1  -.039    3.3   1.27      Hart     26   22.0   .320    9.0   1.65
George   26   22.4   .034    7.9   1.61      Bridges  26   31.0   .463   12.7   1.93
Embiid   25   10.7  -.140   -5.9    .75      Towns    21   32.7   .463   13.4   2.79

Grimes   24   10.4  -.010   -0.3    .26      Hukporti 18   19.9   .317    1.6   1.36
Edwards  17    2.9  -.134   -9.5   -.14      McBride  16   16.5   .258    0.4    .51
Barlow   13   29.7   .314   10.7   1.83      Clarkson 13  -10.2  -.291  -21.1  -1.01
Watford  13    5.3  -.175   -8.7    .14      Shamet   12    3.8   .010   -7.6   -.12
Terry    12    8.2  -.038   -0.6    .11      Robinson 12    1.7   .075   -9.1    .32

. Phl    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . NYK    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Walker   11   -1.9  -.170  -16.0   -.33      Kolek    10   32.9   .471   12.5   2.07
Drummond  9  -13.0  -.557  -22.8   -.51      Alvarado  9   24.6   .326    7.0   1.19

.totals  240   9.7  -.127  -4.31    .51     . totals  240  23.3   .331   5.50   1.49
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2026.html

Wolves 1 - 0 Spurs
104 - 102
Pyth wins .56 - .44 , eWins .53 - .47

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14  Stephon Castle  SAS   28  .708   30.2   6.1   5.6    .0    .0   .0   2.39
.12   Mike Conley    Min   24  .750   27.0   2.9   7.7    .0    .0   .0   2.42
.12  Anthony Edwards Min   26  .692   32.4   3.9   3.4    .0   1.6  1.3   2.19
.10   Dylan Harper   SAS   29  .621   24.3   4.6   4.1    .0    .0   .0   1.69
.10  Vi. Wembanyama  SAS   40  .306    5.9  12.8   3.8    .0   2.9 10.9   1.19

.09   Rudy Gobert    Min   30  .368    6.6  11.7   3.1   4.6   1.5  1.2   1.39
.09   Devin Vassell  SAS   37  .609   14.8   4.6   2.5   3.2   1.1  1.0   1.11
.07  Jul. Champagnie SAS   31  .708   20.5   7.8    .0    .0   1.3   .0   1.07
.07   Naz Reid       Min   29  .750   20.2  10.4   1.0    .0   2.9  1.2   1.12
.05  Jaden McDaniels Min   35  .533   16.3   5.0   1.7   1.0   1.3  1.0    .72

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Julius Randle  Min   42  .457   17.6   8.2   1.4    .8   5.2   .0    .46
.03   Te. Shannon    Min   35  .471   13.4   5.0    .9    .0    .0   .0    .42
.02  Harrison Barnes SAS   10  1.00    9.8  12.8    .0    .0    .0  3.4   1.14
.01   Jaylen Clark   Min    7  1.00   14.8   4.6    .0    .0    .0   .0    .58
.01  Keldon Johnson  SAS   24  .500   12.0   2.7   1.2    .0    .0   .0    .14

.01   Bones Hyland   Min   12  .000     .0   2.7   4.8   2.7    .0  2.9    .27
-.02  Luke Kornet    SAS    9  .500    8.5   7.1    .0    .0   8.2   .0  -1.22
-.04  De'Aaron Fox   SAS   33  .357    8.6   3.1   5.6   1.2   7.2   .0   -.51
shooting : SAS .531 - .517 Min + 1.9
rebounds: SAS 47 - 46 Min + 0.8
turnovers: Min 12 - 14 SAS + 2.7

Code: Select all

. Min   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . SAS   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Randle  42    9.4  -.042   -5.1    .46      Wemby   40   15.4   .024    3.0   1.19
McDa'ls 35   14.3   .120    0.1    .72      Vassell 37   17.5   .201    7.4   1.11
Shannon 35   10.2   .103   -4.0    .42      Fox     33    -.8  -.232  -12.8   -.51
Gobert  30   17.8   .129    7.0   1.39      Champ'e 31   18.7   .183    3.5   1.07
Reid    29   15.1   .146    2.1   1.12      Harper  29   21.1   .257    4.8   1.69
Edwards 26   24.3   .251   10.4   2.19      Castle  28   23.4   .352    7.8   2.39
Conley  24   23.0   .316   13.5   2.42      Johnson 24   10.4   .059   -3.4    .14
Hyland  12   -4.5  -.237   -8.8    .27      Barnes  10   24.5   .326   11.1   1.14
Clark    7   16.5   .224    4.5    .58      Kornet   9     .9  -.169  -14.6  -1.22
totals 240   14.4   .112   1.83   1.06    . totals 240   15.0   .112   1.39    .94

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Wed May 06, 2026 11:04 am
by Mike G
Pistons 1 - 0 Cavs
111 - 101
Pyth wins .78 - .22 , eWins .64 - .36

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   James Harden   Cle   35  .564   23.6   8.5   6.3   1.1   7.6  2.1   1.54
.10   Evan Mobley    Cle   35  .636   14.3   9.6   4.5    .0   1.1  2.1   1.38
.10  Ausar Thompson  Det   33  .688   14.7   9.0   5.6   1.1   1.2  1.1   1.46
.10  Duncan Robinson Det   28  .760   28.5    .0   2.6   2.6    .0   .0   1.72
.10   Jalen Duren    Det   35  .423   10.1  12.7   4.2    .0   1.1  2.1   1.34

.10  Cade Cunningham Det   42  .469   19.8   2.6   6.1   1.7   3.8   .0   1.11
.10   Max Strus      Cle   27  .704   25.6   6.7   2.3   1.3   1.4   .0   1.69
.09   Tobias Harris  Det   39  .556   19.3   7.6    .9   1.8   2.0   .0   1.16
.09  Daniss Jenkins  Det   29  .429   13.4   8.7   3.7   4.8   1.3   .0   1.49
.07 Donovan Mitchell Cle   36  .575   22.0   4.1   1.7   1.0   3.2   .0    .89

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03  Isaiah Stewart  Det   13  1.00   25.8   8.2   2.7    .0   5.8   .0   1.12
.03   Ron Holland    Det   10  .667   22.3   3.5    .0   3.4    .0   .0   1.28
.02   Keon Ellis     Cle   11  .375    6.0   9.7    .0   6.4    .0   .0    .90
.01  Dennis Schröder Cle   16  .643   21.9   2.2   5.6    .0   9.2   .0    .29
.00   Dean Wade      Cle   28  .833    6.7   4.0   1.1   1.3    .0   .0    .05

.00   Thomas Bryant  Cle   10  .400    9.5    .0    .0   3.5    .0   .0    .04
-.01  Jaylon Tyson   Cle   17  .000     .0  10.5   1.8    .0   2.2   .0   -.40
-.02  Jarrett Allen  Cle   19  .250    2.2   5.9   1.7    .0   2.0  1.9   -.46
shooting : Cle .574 - .547 Det + 3.7
rebounds: Det 45 - 41 Cle + 3.1
turnovers: Det 12 - 20 Cle + 10.6

Code: Select all

. Cle   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Mitchell 36   14.1   .007    0.0    .89   Cunningham 42   13.0   .063   -1.0   1.11
Mobley   35   20.5   .185    8.0   1.38      Harris  39   16.6   .160    0.6   1.16
Harden   35   18.9   .037    1.5   1.54      Duren   35   18.3   .149    1.2   1.34
Wade     28   10.2   .093    2.9    .05     Thompson 33   21.4   .267    7.1   1.46
Strus    27   24.2   .237    9.9   1.69      Jenkins 29   19.5   .159    4.7   1.49
Allen    19   -1.1  -.123  -12.1   -.46     Robinson 28   24.0   .323   13.2   1.72
Tyson    17   -1.4  -.100   -9.7   -.40      Stewart 13   15.8   .138    0.4   1.12
Schröder 16   10.5  -.095   -5.2    .29      Holland 10   20.5   .279    6.8   1.28
Ellis    11   15.3   .104    4.8    .90      LeVert   9   -2.2  -.047  -12.3   -.53
Bryant   10    8.8   .026   -6.1    .04      Green    4   14.4   .080    0.6   1.41
Merrill   6   -2.7  -.312   -9.6  -1.29                       
.totals 240   12.9   .045   0.83    .72    . totals 240   17.6   .171   3.03   1.28

Thunder 1 - 0 Lakers
108 - 90
Pyth wins .92 - .08 , eWins .71 - .28

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.24   Chet Holmgren  OKC   31  .632   30.7  15.2   1.1   1.2    .0  3.5   3.67
.17   LeBron James    LA   37  .771   30.5   3.9   4.8    .9   2.1   .0   2.19
.13  Is. Hartenstein OKC   25  1.00   16.9  14.2   5.7   1.5    .0  1.5   2.48
.10   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   28  .514   25.5   2.8   5.0    .0   1.5   .0   1.65
.08   Jared McCain   OKC   15  .857   36.2   5.1   4.6    .0    .0   .0   2.65

.07   Isaiah Joe     OKC   12  .750   31.8   3.2   2.8   3.1    .0   .0   2.68
.07   Marcus Smart    LA   32  .375   11.9   4.5   6.4   4.3   2.4   .0   1.00
.06   Deandre Ayton   LA   28  .417   11.0  15.4   2.1    .0   1.4  1.3   1.08
.06   Rui Hachimura   LA   37  .643   17.6   1.9   1.6    .9   1.0  1.0    .77
.05   Shai G-A       OKC   35  .545   22.4   2.2   6.0   1.1   8.3  2.1    .75

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Cason Wallace  OKC   20  .417    9.1   7.7   3.4   5.6   4.0  1.8    .80
.02  Jaylin Williams OKC   21  .500    5.6  12.8   4.9   1.8   3.9   .0    .36
.01   Alex Caruso    OKC   21  .500    8.1   3.7   3.3    .0    .0   .0    .17
.00   Luguentz Dort  OKC   28  .600    9.1   4.2   5.0    .0   3.0   .0    .06
-.01  Luke Kennard    LA   29  .583    8.6   6.1   1.0   1.2   2.6   .0   -.09

-.01  Jake LaRavia    LA   14  .750    8.7   2.5    .0   2.4   5.3  2.5   -.42
-.02  Jaxson Hayes    LA   16  .375    5.9  13.1   1.8    .0   7.0   .0   -.65
-.03  Austin Reaves   LA   36  .235    5.7   5.0   4.9    .0   4.3  1.0   -.37
shooting : OKC .593 - .492 LA + 13.7
rebounds: OKC 44 - 41 LA + 2.3
turnovers: OKC 16 - 18 LA + 2.7

Code: Select all

. OKC    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . LAL   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai     35   10.2  -.018   -4.1    .75      LeBron 37   28.1   .247   14.1   2.19
Holmgren 31   35.2   .448    5.6   3.67      Rui    37   15.0   .090    6.9    .77
Mitchell 28   16.2   .169   -2.0   1.65      Reaves 36   -3.5  -.268  -13.5   -.37
Dort     28    6.9   .090   -0.2    .06      Smart  32   13.3   .017    4.5   1.00
Hart'n   25   26.7   .463   13.4   2.48     Kennard 29    6.1   .009   -4.0   -.09
Caruso   21    7.5   .147   -2.4    .17      Ayton  28   13.0   .020   -2.8   1.08
J Will   21    9.1   .119   -0.2    .36      Hayes  16     .4  -.186  -13.9   -.65
Wallace  20   12.2   .124    3.9    .80     LaRavia 14    5.6  -.092   -0.4   -.42
McCain   15   30.3   .470   16.7   2.65   Vanderbilt 6    5.7  -.059   -6.7   -.13
Joe      12   31.7   .376   15.0   2.68      
totals  240   17.1   .211   2.61   1.42     totals  240  10.6  -.003  -0.36    .58

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Thu May 07, 2026 12:16 pm
by Mike G
Knicks 2 - 0 Sixers
avg score 122.5 - 100.0
Pyth wins 1.87 - .13 , eWins 1.44 - .56

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.36   Karl-A Towns    NY   24  .787   35.2  15.3   9.0    .8   4.8  1.5   3.58
.31   Jalen Brunson   NY   36  .649   32.6   1.3   4.1   1.5   2.1   .0   2.08
.23   OG Anunoby      NY   34  .750   23.5   5.4   1.5   2.1   1.1  1.1   1.63
.21   Mikal Bridges   NY   32  .761   20.7   5.0   3.6   1.1    .0   .6   1.61
.17   Paul George    Phl   35  .600   17.1   5.9   3.2   1.1   1.6  1.1   1.16

.13   Josh Hart       NY   35  .464    6.2   9.9   5.7   3.1   2.8   .5    .93
.13   Kelly Oubre    Phl   33  .689   16.3   6.8   1.4   1.2   1.7   .6    .95
.07  Dominick Barlow Phl   15  .929   16.9   7.0    .0   2.4   2.3  2.3   1.13
.07   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   37  .488   17.0   3.6   3.4    .5   4.9   .0    .43
.06  Ariel Hukporti   NY   13  .636    8.4  19.8    .0    .0   1.4  2.7   1.13

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06  Andre Drummond  Phl   12  .750    9.3  19.9   1.3   1.5   3.0   .0   1.11
.05   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   34  .537   13.7   4.0   2.3   1.1   2.7   .0    .37
.04   Joel Embiid    Phl   13  .452   16.6   7.2   1.3    .0   1.5   .0    .83
.03  Quentin Grimes  Phl   24  .545    7.5   3.5   4.3   1.5    .7   .0    .32
.03   Jose Alvarado   NY    8  .667   17.2   2.5   3.7   2.0   2.1   .0    .86

.01  Jordan Clarkson  NY   11  .571   13.2  13.6    .0   1.5   8.1   .0    .19
-.01  Miles McBride   NY   19  .500    8.8   1.1   2.4    .0    .9   .0   -.15
-.02  Justin Edwards Phl    9  .667   15.5    .0    .0    .0   4.0   .0   -.49
-.02  Adem Bona      Phl   10  .500    2.4  16.1   1.4    .0   8.2  3.3   -.44
-.02  Landry Shamet   NY   11  .375    3.6    .0   2.8   1.5   1.6   .0   -.54
shooting : NY .666 - .559 Phl + 14.5
rebounds: NY 38.0 - 33.5 Phl + 3.5
turnovers: NY 14.0 - 18.5 Phl + 6.0

Code: Select all

. Phl    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . NYK   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Maxey    74    9.4  -.164   -7.5    .43      Brunson 72   28.3   .305    4.8   2.08
George   69   17.7   .038    5.4   1.16      Hart    69   12.0   .115    1.9    .93
E'combe  68   10.8  -.088   -2.7    .37      Anunoby 68   25.0   .307    7.8   1.63
Oubre    66   17.6   .075    4.0    .95      Bridges 64   24.9   .313    8.1   1.61
Grimes   48   11.0   .053   -0.1    .32      Towns   48   35.2   .447   16.4   3.58

Barlow   29   22.9   .184    8.2   1.13      McBride 38    6.0   .044   -6.7   -.15
Embiid   25   11.4  -.119   -5.9    .83     Hukporti 25   14.7   .238   -4.4   1.13
Drummond 24   13.2   .050   -1.4   1.11     Clarkson 21    5.9  -.092  -11.5    .19
Bona     20     .2  -.172  -16.0  -0.44      Shamet  21    2.1  -.005   -7.0   -.54
Edwards  17    2.9  -.134   -9.5   -.49     Alvarado 16   16.6   .183    1.1    .86

. Phl    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . NYK   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Watford  13    5.3  -.173   -8.7    .01     Robinson 12    2.5   .036   -9.1    .44
Terry    12    8.2  -.034   -0.6    .02      Kolek   10   33.2   .448   12.5   2.48
Walker   11   -1.9  -.168  -16.0   -.61      Dadiet   9   30.2   .403   13.4   1.75
Broome    5     .0  -.147  -12.6   -.40      Diawara  7   30.1   .496    9.7   2.34

.totals 480   12.1  -.032  -1.85    .56    . total  480   20.3   .235   3.69   1.44
min. correl:   .03   -.15    .12   -.06                    .55    .47    .62    .43

Spurs 1 - 1 Wolves
avg score 117.5 - 99.5
Pyth wins 1.80 - .20 , eWins 1.40 - .60

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.33  Vi. Wembanyama   SA   33  .435   14.7  15.4   3.7    .5   3.0  7.7   2.42
.27  Stephon Castle   SA   26  .717   35.4   5.8   5.9   1.4   3.7   .0   2.48
.18   Dylan Harper    SA   26  .592   20.8   6.7   5.6   1.3   1.4   .0   1.71
.16 Julian Champagnie SA   27  .806   20.6   6.4   1.3   1.4    .7   .7   1.42
.15   Devin Vassell   SA   29  .558   14.8   5.8   4.2   1.9    .7   .6   1.25

.11  Jaden McDaniels Min   28  .549   18.5   4.8   3.0    .7   2.2  1.3    .97
.09   Mike Conley    Min   20  .625   14.4   2.5   6.0    .9    .0   .0   1.07
.09   Naz Reid       Min   26  .767   17.7   9.7    .5    .0   2.9   .7    .82
.07  Anthony Edwards Min   25  .556   20.8   3.7   1.5    .0   3.7   .7    .65
.06   Keldon Johnson  SA   22  .435   12.8   8.7   1.5    .0    .8   .8    .73

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Julius Randle  Min   35  .465   17.0   7.3   1.6   1.6   5.8   .0    .45
.06   De'Aaron Fox    SA   30  .491   16.4   1.7   4.7   1.8   4.6   .0    .51
.05   Rudy Gobert    Min   29  .333    5.8  11.5   1.9   2.5   3.4   .6    .44
.05   Te. Shannon    Min   30  .452   13.8   5.6    .9    .0    .7   .0    .41
.05  Harrison Barnes  SA   13  .778   18.2   7.1    .0    .0   1.4  1.3    .89

.04   Luke Kornet     SA   11  .750   11.3   5.3   1.3   2.8   3.0  4.3    .87
.03   Kyle Anderson  Min    8  .444   16.9   5.9   6.4    .0   2.3   .0   1.10
-.01  Bones Hyland   Min   12  .000     .0   2.5   4.1   1.4   1.5  1.4   -.26
-.01  Jaylen Clark   Min   11  .417    4.7   1.3   1.1   1.4    .0   .0   -.31
-.02  Carter Bryant   SA    8  .250    2.5   3.8   3.8    .0   2.2   .0   -.72
shooting : SA .580 - .488 Min + 12.5
rebounds: SA 51.0 - 44.5 Min + 5.1
turnovers: SA 15.0 - 17.5 Min + 3.3

Code: Select all

. SAS   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Min    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Wemby   66   20.9   .164    4.5   2.42      Randle  69    8.3  -.120   -5.3    .45
Fox     59    7.6   .025   -5.5    .51      Shannon 59    9.1   .042   -5.1    .41
Vassell 58   17.0   .264    5.7   1.25      Gobert  58    8.3  -.083   -2.8    .44
Champ'e 53   22.2   .307    9.6   1.42    McDaniels 55   15.5   .041    1.6    .97
Harper  52   20.3   .274    4.7   1.71      Reid    51   13.6   .074    1.7    .82

Castle  52   24.4   .384    5.5   2.48      Edwards 50   11.8  -.041    0.1    .65
Johnson 43   10.5   .108   -5.9    .73      Conley  40   17.4   .185    8.7   1.07
Barnes  25   22.4   .350    5.2    .89      Hyland  23   -6.2  -.318  -11.4   -.26
Kornet  22   17.4   .258    5.4    .87      Clark   22    7.0   .025   -0.5   -.31
Bryant  16   -3.8  -.033  -10.9   -.72     Anderson 15   15.6   .018    3.1   1.10

. SAS   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Min    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
McLau'n 10   17.2   .282    7.2    .70      Dosunmu 11   -5.9  -.398   -8.0   -.34
Olynyk  10   20.9   .272    8.8   1.51      Ingles  10   32.9   .287   21.8   2.34
Waters   8   39.6   .461   15.5   3.36     Phillips 10    6.4   .059   -0.8   -.26
.                                          Beringer  8   28.3   .164    5.8   1.99
          
. totals     17.7   .223   3.20   1.40     . totals      10.9  -.011  -0.76    .60
min. correl:  .08   -.18    .13    .48                    .09   -.06   -.21    .11

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Fri May 08, 2026 10:43 am
by Mike G
Pistons 2 - 0 Cavs
avg score 109.0 - 99.0
Pyth wins 1.56 - .44 , eWins 1.28 - .72

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.25  Cade Cunningham Det   42  .565   22.7   2.9   7.2   1.2   4.6   .9   1.45
.24 Donovan Mitchell Cle   37  .557   26.2   5.1   2.2   1.6   2.6   .0   1.61
.23  Duncan Robinson Det   33  .735   25.4   1.9   2.8   2.7    .7   .0   1.72
.23   Tobias Harris  Det   38  .586   20.6   8.2    .5   1.8   1.7  1.0   1.48
.20  Ausar Thompson  Det   29  .618   15.3  10.7   4.4   1.8    .8   .6   1.65

.17  Daniss Jenkins  Det   28  .464   14.5   9.3   4.4   2.4   1.5   .0   1.49
.14   Jarrett Allen  Cle   25  .667   20.2   7.4   2.6    .8   1.5  1.5   1.39
.14   Evan Mobley    Cle   35  .548   11.3   5.3   4.1   1.7   1.6  2.6    .93
.11   Jalen Duren    Det   34  .413    7.9  13.2   2.6    .0   1.9  1.1    .78
.08   James Harden   Cle   36  .464   14.0   7.2   4.5   1.1   5.7  1.0    .54

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Max Strus      Cle   28  .564   12.3   5.2   1.7    .7    .7  1.3    .59
.04   Dean Wade      Cle   26  .722   10.0   5.8    .6    .8    .0   .0    .35
.03   Caris LeVert   Det   11  .667   13.1   6.9   1.5    .0    .0   .0    .73
.03   Ron Holland    Det   10  .471   11.4   6.0    .0   3.4    .0  1.8    .74
.03   Keon Ellis     Cle    9  .600   10.7   6.0    .0   4.2    .0   .0    .79

.02  Isaiah Stewart  Det   14  1.00   17.4   6.8   1.2    .0   2.9   .0    .40
.00  Dennis Schröder Cle   18  .500   11.8   3.9   6.8    .0   5.9   .0    .05
-.00  Jaylon Tyson   Cle   20  .389    4.0   9.1   1.6    .0    .9   .0   -.06
shooting : Det .569 - .542 Cle + 3.6
rebounds: Det 43.5 - 38.5 Cle + 3.9
turnovers: Det 12.5 - 15.5 Cle + 4.0

Code: Select all

. Cle    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Mitchell 73   19.6   .056    4.4   1.61   Cunningham 84   18.4   .162    3.6   1.45
Harden   72    9.4  -.095   -5.5    .54      Harris  75   19.5   .180    3.0   1.48
Mobley   70   16.4   .090    5.7    .93      Duren   68   12.2   .085   -4.2    .78
Strus    55   13.1   .076    2.0    .59     Robinson 65   21.8   .270   11.4   1.72
Wade     51   12.1   .102    2.8    .35     Thompson 57   21.4   .269    6.1   1.65

Allen    50   20.2   .187    4.5   1.39      Jenkins 55   18.6   .153    2.9   1.49
Tyson    39    5.9  -.033   -5.7   -.06      Stewart 28   10.6   .147   -4.0    .40
Schröder 36    7.6  -.094   -6.3    .05      LeVert  22   14.6   .196    2.4    .73
Ellis    17   17.5   .170    7.7    .79      Holland 19   15.4   .189    1.6    .74
Bryant   10    8.8   .008   -6.1   -.07      Green    8    8.8   .036   -0.8    .12
Merrill   6   -2.7  -.460   -9.6  -1.44                
         
. Cle          PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Det         PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
. totals      13.3   .037   0.88    .72     . totals      17.7   .180   3.03   1.28
min. correl:   .36   -.08    .24    .54                    .55    .06    .33    .69

Thunder 2 - 0 Lakers
avg score 116.5 - 98.5
Pyth wins 1.81 - .19 , eWins 1.40 - .60

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.45   Chet Holmgren  OKC   32  .687   29.5  14.7   2.1   2.9   1.3  2.9   3.43
.27   LeBron James    LA   38  .667   25.1   3.5   4.6   2.0   2.6   .0   1.76
.24  Is. Hartenstein OKC   26  .900   15.8  15.3   3.3   2.1    .8  2.1   2.23
.20   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   29  .576   25.3   3.8   5.8    .0   2.2   .0   1.69
.14   Shai G-A       OKC   32  .588   25.7   2.8   4.3   1.2   6.7  1.2   1.07

.13   Jared McCain   OKC   17  .833   34.7   2.5   1.9    .0   1.2   .0   1.83
.10   Rui Hachimura   LA   38  .708   16.2   3.5   1.5   1.0   1.5   .5    .66
.10   Marcus Smart    LA   33  .413   12.1   5.3   5.2   2.8   2.9   .0    .72
.10   Cason Wallace  OKC   26  .607   12.1   4.9   3.7   2.7   1.6  1.4    .90
.09   Isaiah Joe     OKC   10  .722   24.9   2.0   6.1   1.7    .0   .0   2.16

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08   Austin Reaves   LA   38  .513   17.8   4.1   4.6    .0   4.6   .5    .51
.07   Deandre Ayton   LA   27  .325    6.3  18.0   1.1    .0   2.2   .7    .63
.05   Alex Caruso    OKC   22  .455    7.2   5.7   4.4   1.6    .9   .0    .55
.05  Jaylin Williams OKC   18  .667   10.6  10.5   3.6   1.0   2.2   .0    .67
.00   Luke Kennard    LA   28  .773   10.6   4.5    .5    .6   1.3   .0    .04

.00   Jaxson Hayes    LA   16  .643   10.4  11.8   2.6   1.1   5.8   .0    .03
-.04  Luguentz Dort  OKC   26  .409    5.7   3.5   4.0    .7   3.3   .0   -.35
-.04  Jake LaRavia    LA   12  .375    3.4   1.7   1.1   2.8   4.4  1.4   -.80
shooting : OKC .630 - .547 LA + 11.1
rebounds: OKC 38.0 - 35.5 LA + 2.0
turnovers: OKC 15.0 - 19.5 LA + 6.0

Code: Select all

. OKC    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . LAL   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Holmgren 63   30.8   .367    5.6   3.43      Reaves 75   10.2  -.028   -4.2    .51
Shai     63   19.1   .134    1.4   1.07      LeBron 75   24.3   .153    9.5   1.76
Mitchell 58   16.4   .156   -1.3   1.69      Rui    75   14.7   .059    4.7    .66
Harten'n 52   26.3   .402    9.5   2.23      Smart  66   10.8  -.030   -0.7    .72
Wallace  51   13.5   .140    3.9    .90     Kennard 55    9.7   .029   -1.3    .04

Dort     51    7.3   .091   -0.6   -.35      Ayton  54    6.1  -.118   -9.7    .63
Caruso   43   11.4   .153    0.1    .55      Hayes  31    8.0  -.070   -6.1    .03
J Will   35   10.3   .114    0.5    .67     LaRavia 24     .0  -.209   -5.6   -.80
McCain   33   23.8   .321    8.3   1.83      Thiero  8    -.5  -.074   -9.7   -.67
Joe      20   24.7   .270    9.1   2.16      V'bilt  6    5.7  -.239   -6.7   -.12

. OKC    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . LAL   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Wiggins   7   -9.2  -.147  -18.2   -.53      Bronny  4   15.1   .080    9.5    .34
K Will    4    4.3   .041   -6.3  -1.14      Knecht  4    -.8  -.399  -16.3   -.10
.                                            Smith   4   11.1  -.065   -9.3   1.55
         
. totals      17.9   .206   2.81   1.40      . totals    11.8  -.008  -0.83    .60
min. correl:   .41    .15   -.04    .39         (1-8)     .68    .68    .63    .73

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Fri May 08, 2026 4:44 pm
by Crow
Shai with a huge turnover spike.

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Sat May 09, 2026 1:44 am
by Mike G
OKC turnovers in these 2 games are 2.4 above their season avg. Lakers are 5.0 above theirs.
Holmgren said some of Shai's TO are the result of teammates not being where they should have been, when he throws a pass. In any case, it doesn't seem to be a problem when the team/opponent ratio is good -- thus far, adding about 6 ppg to the MOV.

Shai's 10 TO in 2 games is 1 more than any other 2G this season.
In last year's Finals, he had 11 in games 5 - 6.

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Sat May 09, 2026 10:37 am
by Mike G
Knicks 3 - 0 Sixers
avg score 117.7 - 98.0
Pyth wins 2.76 - .24 , eWins 2.13 - .87

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.56   Jalen Brunson   NY   37  .639   34.6   2.8   5.6   1.0   2.4   .0   2.42
.49   Karl-A Towns    NY   25  .692   27.0  17.1   9.4    .5   3.7  1.5   3.21
.33   Mikal Bridges   NY   34  .734   22.0   4.4   2.7   1.4    .0   .4   1.59
.24   OG Anunoby      NY   23  .750   24.6   5.3   1.5   2.1   1.1  1.1   1.73
.23   Kelly Oubre    Phl   34  .639   17.6   7.3   1.2    .8   1.1   .4   1.07

.20   Paul George    Phl   36  .531   15.5   5.4   2.9   1.4   2.1   .7    .90
.18   Josh Hart       NY   37  .463    7.8  10.5   4.7   2.2   3.1   .3    .81
.13   Joel Embiid    Phl   20  .451   16.9   6.9   3.1    .0   2.5  1.8   1.07
.13   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   39  .538   16.4   2.8   3.9    .7   3.7   .0    .52
.10   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   36  .541   12.3   5.0   2.6   1.4   2.4   .0    .44

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06  Ariel Hukporti   NY    9  .636    7.7  18.6    .0    .0   1.2  2.3   1.00
.06  Dominick Barlow Phl   13  .938   14.2   5.6    .0   1.8   1.7  1.7    .70
.05   Mi. Robinson    NY   10  .400    7.1  13.2   1.0   1.0    .0  1.1    .83
.05  Andre Drummond  Phl    9  .600    7.4  17.4   1.1   2.7   2.6   .0    .92
.05  Jordan Clarkson  NY   12  .600   12.9  13.8   2.7   1.8   7.0   .0    .66

.03   Jose Alvarado   NY    8  .786   16.9   1.7   2.6   1.3   1.4   .0    .67
.03   Landry Shamet   NY   16  .750   14.4   2.6   1.3   1.4   2.2   .0    .29
.02  Quentin Grimes  Phl   23  .529    7.8   3.3   3.7   1.0   1.0   .0    .16
.01  Trendon Watford Phl    5  .500   15.7   2.3   1.7   2.1   4.1   .0    .34
-.02  Miles McBride   NY   20  .417    6.9    .7   2.8    .0    .6  1.2   -.13

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
-.02  Justin Edwards Phl    6  .667   13.9    .0    .0    .0   3.5   .0   -.55
-.03  Adem Bona      Phl    7  .500    2.2  13.4   1.2    .0   7.4  3.0   -.64
shooting : NY .639 - .542 Phl + 13.1
rebounds: NY 41.7 - 33.3 Phl + 6.5
turnovers: NY 14.3 - 16.0 Phl + 2.2

Code: Select all

. Phl   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . NYK    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Maxey   118   11.7  -.068   -3.9    .52      Brunson 110   28.4   .320    6.4   2.42
E'combe 108   10.9  -.038   -1.4    .44      Hart    110   10.1   .077   -0.8    .81
George  107   14.1  -.020    2.5    .90      Bridges 101   24.2   .316    8.0   1.59
Oubre   102   18.3   .104    3.5   1.07      Towns    74   30.1   .393   13.4   3.21
Grimes   70    9.1   .025   -1.7    .16      Anunoby  68   25.5   .311    7.8   1.73

Embiid   60   13.0  -.093   -1.5   1.07      McBride  59    4.8   .035   -5.2   -.13
Barlow   40   18.3   .151    4.6    .70      Shamet   47   12.7   .163    1.2    .29
Drummond 27   12.4   .041   -2.0    .92      Clarkson 35   11.2   .022   -3.9    .66
Bona     22    -.7  -.169  -16.3   -.64      Robinson 31   10.4   .140   -3.6    .83
Edwards  19    2.4  -.129   -9.4   -.55      Hukporti 28   14.4   .235   -4.0   1.00

. Phl   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . NYK    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Watford  16   10.8  -.079   -3.8    .34      Alvarado 24   16.5   .214    3.5    .67
Terry    14    7.5  -.105   -0.5    .50      Kolek    12   24.4   .302    5.6   1.80
Walker   13   -4.7  -.237  -17.6   -.78      Dadiet   11   21.3   .224    6.4   1.21

. totals      12.0  -.018  -1.34    .58     . totals       19.1   .224   3.58   1.42
min. correl:   .12   -.15    .12    .15                     .43    .36    .41    .44

Spurs 2 - 1 Wolves
avg score 116.7 - 102.3
Pyth wins 2.55 - .45 , eWins 2.03 - .97

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.70  Vi. Wembanyama   SA   34  .590   25.4  14.5   2.7    .7   2.3  6.8   3.28
.31  Stephon Castle   SA   31  .614   23.5   4.7   7.9    .8   3.9   .0   1.60
.27  Anthony Edwards Min   30  .554   23.7   7.0   2.7    .0   2.9   .8   1.45
.23  Jul. Champagnie  SA   27  .700   15.2   8.9   2.1   1.7    .5   .4   1.37
.20   Dylan Harper    SA   24  .552   17.4   6.2   4.3   1.3   1.5   .5   1.35

.20   Naz Reid       Min   28  .683   17.3   9.2   1.9    .0   1.7  1.2   1.17
.20   Devin Vassell   SA   32  .521   13.1   5.6   3.6   1.8    .8   .4   1.02
.15   Rudy Gobert    Min   30  .490    9.5  10.0   1.9   1.8   2.6  1.6    .78
.14  Jaden McDaniels Min   32  .455   14.6   5.2   2.4    .8   1.7  1.2    .72
.11   De'Aaron Fox    SA   31  .457   16.1   2.1   4.8   1.5   3.8   .0    .57

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.10  Keldon Johnson   SA   20  .484   14.5   6.7   1.5    .5    .6   .5    .83
.08   Mike Conley    Min   15  .577   12.2   3.7   5.7    .9    .9   .0    .86
.06   Julius Randle  Min   33  .446   14.8   7.0   1.1   1.6   4.7   .0    .27
.04  Harrison Barnes  SA   10  .778   13.6   6.2    .0    .9   1.1  1.0    .60
.03   Kyle Anderson  Min    5  .444   16.0   5.7   6.5    .0   2.2   .0   1.05

.03   Luke Kornet     SA   11  .800    9.4   4.3    .9   1.8   2.1  3.8    .45
.01 Terrence Shannon Min   29  .446   10.6   4.4   1.3    .0    .9   .0    .04
-.00  Ayo Dosunmu    Min   14  .344    6.4   4.8   3.0   1.6   3.3   .8   -.05
-.01  Carter Bryant   SA    8  .667   10.8   2.3   2.4    .0   1.4   .0   -.25
-.01  Bones Hyland   Min    8  .000     .0   2.4   4.1   1.4   1.4  1.3   -.28
-.02  Jaylen Clark   Min    7  .417    4.7   1.3   1.1   1.5    .0   .0   -.35
shooting : SA .576 - .490 Min + 11.6
rebounds: SA 50.0 - 47.7 Min + 1.8
turnovers: SA 13.3 - 15.7 Min + 3.1

Code: Select all

. SAS   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Min    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Wemby   103   29.3   .299   10.2   3.28      Randle  100    7.7  -.098   -6.1    .27
Vassell  95   14.7   .176    3.0   1.02    McDaniels  95   11.7   .002   -0.9    .72
Fox      93    8.0  -.008   -5.9    .57      Edwards  90   17.4   .055    3.9   1.45
Castle   92   17.3   .221    1.5   1.60      Gobert   89   13.1   .030    0.9    .78
Champ'e  82   19.7   .271    7.9   1.37      Shannon  88    6.7   .019   -5.5    .04
Harper   72   17.6   .206    2.6   1.35      Reid     83   17.3   .143    6.0   1.17
Johnson  61   13.2   .138   -2.4    .83      Conley   44   14.2   .120    5.8    .86
Kornet   32   14.0   .213    2.6    .45      Dosunmu  43    3.0  -.146   -4.0   -.05
Barnes   31   20.0   .299    5.1    .60      Hyland   23   -6.7  -.327  -11.4   -.28
Bryant   24    6.2   .116   -2.2   -.25      Clark    22    7.0   .023   -0.5   -.35

. totals      17.4   .197   3.02   1.35      . totals      11.4   .012  -0.21    .65
min. correl:   .31   -.03    .20    .60                     .28    .08   -.08    .28

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Sun May 10, 2026 12:12 pm
by Mike G
Det 2 - 1 Cle
avg score 109.0 - 104.7
Pyth wins 1.90 - 1.10 , eWins 1.70 - 1.30

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.45 Donovan Mitchell Cle   37  .582   28.4   6.9   2.6   1.4   2.7   .0   1.93
.38  Cade Cunningham Det   41  .517   22.8   5.6   7.3   1.0   5.8   .6   1.49
.30  Duncan Robinson Det   33  .739   20.0   2.6   3.0   2.9    .4   .4   1.44
.28   Tobias Harris  Det   38  .602   19.2   7.6    .3   1.0   1.5   .6   1.17
.27  Ausar Thompson  Det   29  .536   12.4  11.0   4.7   1.0    .5  1.3   1.51

.25   Jarrett Allen  Cle   27  .689   19.8   6.7   2.0   1.3   1.4  1.8   1.46
.24   Evan Mobley    Cle   36  .563   11.5   6.5   3.9   1.4   1.4  2.4   1.06
.20   James Harden   Cle   37  .520   16.1   5.5   4.9   1.4   4.7   .7    .86
.15   Jalen Duren    Det   33  .469   10.3  11.4   2.0    .6   2.6   .7    .74
.14  Daniss Jenkins  Det   24  .424   11.7   7.8   4.3   1.5   1.6   .0    .94

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08   Max Strus      Cle   27  .547   10.6   5.8   1.8   1.2   1.3   .9    .48
.06  Dennis Schröder Cle   20  .667   15.4   3.1   5.1    .0   4.8  1.2    .51
.04   Caris LeVert   Det   13  .538   10.1   6.1    .8   2.8   1.0   .0    .55
.04   Ron Holland    Det    8  .471    9.2   6.8    .0   2.3    .0  2.9    .79
.03   Keon Ellis     Cle    6  .600    9.7   6.2    .0   5.5    .0   .0    .89

.02  Isaiah Stewart  Det   12  .857   12.9   7.5    .8    .0   2.1   .0    .26
.01   Jaylon Tyson   Cle   18  .417    4.9   8.0   2.2    .0   1.3   .6    .10
.00   Javonte Green  Det    6  .375    7.3   6.2    .0    .0    .0   .0    .00
-.00   Dean Wade     Cle   23  .727    7.9   5.2    .5    .8   1.1   .0   -.03
-.01  Sam Merrill    Cle    7  .700   11.0    .0   1.4    .0   1.6   .0   -.30
shooting : Cle .580 - .557 Det + 3.2
rebounds: Det 42.3 - 36.7 Cle + 4.4
turnovers: Det 13.7 - 15.3 Cle + 2.2

Code: Select all

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Mitchell 111   22.4   .117    3.7   1.93   Cunningham 122   17.0   .075    2.1   1.49
Harden   111   12.1  -.016   -2.5    .86      Harris  113   17.9   .157    2.1   1.17
Mobley   107   15.9   .120    4.7   1.06     Robinson 100   22.5   .275   12.8   1.44
Strus     82   10.5   .055   -0.1    .48      Duren    98   11.6   .046   -4.3    .74
Allen     81   21.7   .211    5.4   1.46     Thompson  86   19.2   .201    4.9   1.51

Wade      68    9.1   .054    1.1   -.03      Jenkins  73   13.3   .073   -1.2    .94
Schröder  59   12.6   .023    1.0    .51      LeVert   39   16.5   .150    4.1    .55
Tyson     54    6.5  -.016   -3.5    .10      Stewart  37   10.8   .125   -3.9    .26
Merrill   21    8.2  -.008   -3.6   -.30      Holland  23   14.8   .168    2.6    .79
Ellis     17   17.5   .174    7.7    .89      Green    19    4.2  -.064   -6.7    .00

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Bryant    10    8.8   .008   -6.1    .22      Reed      9   50.5   .555   15.5   4.04
    
. totals       14.4   .073   1.49    .87      . totals      16.7   .138   2.46   1.13
min. correl:    .50    .22    .26    .69                     .42    .03    .20    .76

Thunder 3 - 0 Lakers
avg score 121.3 - 101.7
Pyth wins 2.74 - .26 , eWins 2.12 - .88

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.54   Chet Holmgren  OKC   32  .674   25.7  13.5   1.7   1.9   1.3  2.3   2.72
.42   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   29  .602   27.3   4.4   7.2   1.2   1.4   .0   2.28
.34   LeBron James    LA   37  .590   21.1   4.6   5.0   1.7   2.8   .0   1.47
.30   Shai G-A       OKC   32  .548   25.1   3.6   5.6   1.1   5.2  1.5   1.49
.29  Is. Hartenstein OKC   27  .882   16.1  14.1   2.7   1.7   2.6  1.3   1.72

.19   Rui Hachimura   LA   38  .705   16.3   4.1   2.0   1.0   1.4   .3    .78
.17   Isaiah Joe     OKC   13  .781   24.5   6.1   4.6   1.7    .0   .0   2.13
.14   Cason Wallace  OKC   25  .688   16.2   3.8   2.8   2.2   1.6   .9    .91
.12   Jared McCain   OKC   14  .868   29.0   1.9   2.1    .0    .9   .0   1.41
.11   Deandre Ayton   LA   26  .397    7.9  15.3    .7    .5   1.5   .9    .69

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Austin Reaves   LA   38  .509   16.0   3.7   5.1    .0   4.7   .3    .40
.09   Marcus Smart    LA   33  .444   11.2   4.8   4.3   2.3   2.8   .0    .43
.07   Alex Caruso    OKC   21  .471    7.9   5.1   3.8   2.6    .6   .0    .57
.07   Luke Kennard    LA   28  .833   13.7   3.9   1.0    .9    .9   .0    .40
.07  Jaylin Williams OKC   16  .684    9.7  10.6   3.6    .7   1.6   .0    .67

.01   Adou Thiero     LA    7  .444    5.2  19.8   1.2    .0   4.9   .0    .34
.00   Luguentz Dort  OKC   24  .594    9.7   4.2   2.7   1.0   2.4   .0    .00
-.01  Jaxson Hayes    LA   13  .625    8.1  10.7   1.9    .9   4.4   .0   -.17
-.04  Jake LaRavia    LA    8  .375    3.2   1.6   1.1   2.9   4.4  1.4   -.80
shooting : OKC .641 - .558 LA + 11.2
rebounds: OKC 39.7 - 36.0 LA + 2.9
turnovers: OKC 13.3 - 18.7 LA + 7.1

Code: Select all

. OKC    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . LAL   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai     96   17.9   .118   -1.2   1.49      Reaves 114   10.0  -.043   -5.0    .40
Holmgren 95   30.5   .342    8.8   2.72   Hachimura 114   16.4   .064    4.9    .78
Mitchell 88   27.0   .322    5.7   2.28      LeBron 111   20.1   .060    5.3   1.47
Harten'n 82   22.7   .272    5.6   1.72      Smart   98   10.0  -.046   -2.5    .43
Wallace  75   18.4   .225    5.4    .91     Kennard  84   14.8   .069    2.7    .40

Dort     71    7.7   .070   -2.2    .00      Ayton   78   10.0  -.082   -7.7    .69
Caruso   63   12.1   .143    0.6    .57      Hayes   40    6.9  -.088   -7.1   -.17
J Will   48   12.8   .191    2.1    .67      LaRavia 24    -.5  -.280   -5.6   -.80
McCain   42   26.3   .329    9.7   1.41      Thiero  21    7.6  -.030   -9.0    .34
Joe      38   30.7   .405   14.0   2.13      Bronny   7   11.6  -.132   -0.8   -.22

. OKC    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . LAL   min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Wiggins  10   13.0   .124   -2.2    .18      Knecht   7    3.6  -.207   -7.4    .76
K Will    7  -18.6  -.400  -30.5  -1.37      Kleber   7  -13.2  -.494  -23.4  -1.84
Topić     4   16.8  -.048   -3.1   1.35      Smith    7   46.2   .374   21.9   3.40
                                          Vanderbilt  6    4.5  -.443   -6.7   -.17
. totals:     20.1   .225   3.82   1.41      . totals     12.6  -.018  -1.06    .59
min. correl:   .45    .17    .06    .61                    .74    .67    .63    .75

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Mon May 11, 2026 1:21 pm
by Mike G
Knicks 4 - 0 Sixers
avg score 124.3 - 102.0
Pyth wins 3.73 - .27 , eWins 2.86 - 1.14

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.65   Jalen Brunson   NY   35  .641   32.3   3.5   5.9    .8   2.0   .0   2.26
.64   Karl-A Towns    NY   24  .729   29.0  15.2  10.9    .4   3.8  2.0   3.27
.42   Mikal Bridges   NY   32  .707   20.8   4.8   3.7   1.9    .3   .3   1.58
.29   Josh Hart       NY   35  .560   10.6  11.1   3.9   2.0   2.8   .5   1.01
.25   Joel Embiid    Phl   22  .596   22.6   7.2   3.3    .0   3.0  1.3   1.39

.23   Kelly Oubre    Phl   32  .643   16.1   7.1    .9    .6    .9   .3    .87
.23   OG Anunoby      NY   17  .750   24.1   5.2   1.5   2.0   1.2  1.1   1.60
.15   Paul George    Phl   34  .527   13.4   4.6   2.6   1.2   2.2   .5    .55
.13   VJ Edgecombe   Phl   35  .471   10.2   5.7   3.3   1.1   1.9   .3    .46
.13   Tyrese Maxey   Phl   38  .514   15.4   2.7   3.6    .5   3.4   .0    .40

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Miles McBride   NY   22  .667   15.1   2.5   1.9    .4    .4   .8    .61
.10  Jordan Clarkson  NY   11  .633   16.6  12.4   4.4   1.5   6.0   .0   1.09
.08   Mi. Robinson    NY   12  .438    8.0  13.9    .7    .7    .0   .7    .83
.08   Dalen Terry    Phl    7  .480   13.4   2.9   5.0   6.9   1.3   .0   1.39
.07   Jose Alvarado   NY    9  .692   18.7   4.7   2.7   1.8   2.1   .0   1.05

.07   Landry Shamet   NY   15  .789   19.0   2.1   1.1   1.1   1.9   .0    .59
.06  Andre Drummond  Phl    9  .556    8.8  18.0    .8   2.1   3.0   .0    .83
.06  Ariel Hukporti   NY   11  .480    7.7  15.6    .7    .0   1.6  1.5    .66
.06  Dominick Barlow Phl   14  .870   12.9   4.8    .5   1.3   1.2  1.2    .51
.05   Tyler Kolek     NY    6  .545   15.9   4.8   7.4    .0   2.9   .0   1.02

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Pacôme Dadiet   NY    6  .643   13.8   8.7   4.0   1.4   3.1   .0    .97
.02  Trendon Watford Phl    6  .556   12.4   1.5   2.1   4.3   2.7   .0    .43
.02   Adem Bona      Phl    8  .750   10.4  11.8    .8    .0   5.3  3.1    .23
.01  Quentin Grimes  Phl   22  .522    7.9   2.7   2.8    .9    .8   .4    .06
-.01 Mohamed Diawara  NY    5  .417    6.6   4.2   1.6    .0   1.9   .0   -.29

-.02  Justin Edwards Phl    9  .500   12.3   1.1    .7    .0   2.0   .0   -.23
-.02  Jabari Walker  Phl    5  .200    1.7   7.9    .0    .0   1.8   .0   -.59
shooting : NY .651 - .550 Phl + 13.7
rebounds: NY 43.0 - 32.5 Phl + 8.2
turnovers: NY 13.5 - 14.5 Phl + 1.3

Code: Select all

. Phl   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . NYK    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Maxey   151   10.3  -.123   -5.3    .40      Hart    139   13.1   .129    1.0   1.01
E'combe 138   10.4  -.083   -2.4    .46      Brunson 138   27.5   .330    6.5   2.26
George  134   11.1  -.082   -0.3    .55      Bridges 129   23.6   .301    7.7   1.58
Oubre   128   17.4   .068    2.2    .87      Towns    94   32.1   .442   16.4   3.27
Embiid   87   19.4   .031    3.0   1.39      McBride  88   15.1   .206    2.0    .61

Grimes   86    8.2  -.026   -2.5    .06      Anunoby  68   23.8   .282    7.8   1.60
Barlow   56   16.3   .118    2.6    .51      Shamet   58   16.3   .215    2.9    .59
Drummond 35   10.5  -.026   -6.3    .83      Robinson 47   12.1   .161   -5.2    .83
Edwards  35    5.0  -.157  -11.2   -.23      Hukporti 44   10.1   .148   -9.1    .66
Bona     32   10.2  -.012   -8.4    .23      Clarkson 42   16.2   .140   -0.7   1.09

. Phl   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . NYK    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Terry    26   21.7   .118    8.9   1.39      Alvarado 34   18.1   .191    2.2   1.05
Watford  25   14.0   .027    0.0    .43      Kolek    25   14.5   .133   -4.1   1.02
Walker   19   -4.4  -.230  -16.6   -.59      Dadiet   23   16.3   .148    1.3    .97
Broome    8   32.0   .176    8.5   2.02      Diawara  19    1.5  -.017  -12.3   -.29
.                                            Sochan   13   24.1   .385    8.6   1.76

. totals      12.4  -.033  -1.67    .57     . totals       19.8   .241   3.81   1.43
min. correl:  -.04   -.42    .05    .02                     .32    .21    .31    .36

Spurs 2 - 2 Wolves
avg score 114.8 - 105.3
Pyth wins 3.04 - .96 , eWins 2.52 - 1.48

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.72  Vi. Wembanyama   SA   29  .575   23.5  14.4   2.6    .6   2.7  6.1   3.00
.47  Anthony Edwards Min   33  .598   27.6   6.6   2.4    .3   3.2   .6   1.73
.41   Stephon Castle  SA   32  .592   21.8   5.0   6.5    .8   3.0   .3   1.54
.37   Dylan Harper    SA   25  .635   22.1   6.8   3.3   1.9   1.8   .3   1.78
.29   Naz Reid       Min   28  .644   16.9   9.4   2.4    .3   1.6   .9   1.24

.29  Jul. Champagnie  SA   28  .614   13.3   8.2   2.4   1.8    .4   .3   1.25
.28   Rudy Gobert    Min   30  .522   10.5  11.4   2.5   1.4   1.9  1.5   1.14
.26   Devin Vassell   SA   32  .560   14.0   4.5   3.4   1.9    .9   .3    .97
.23   De'Aaron Fox    SA   33  .447   17.4   2.6   4.1   1.8   3.0   .0    .85
.14  Jaden McDaniels Min   34  .450   13.3   5.2   1.7    .6   1.4   .8    .48

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Mike Conley    Min   14  .719   16.9   3.0   5.7    .7   1.4   .0   1.15
.09   Keldon Johnson  SA   20  .479   13.2   6.5   1.5    .8   1.8   .4    .55
.08   Luke Kornet     SA   15  .750    9.0   6.9   1.0   1.5   1.7  3.2    .62
.05   Julius Randle  Min   35  .456   14.0   7.1   1.5   1.2   5.1   .0    .18
.03  Harrison Barnes  SA   10  .727   11.6   5.6    .0    .7    .8   .8    .36

.02   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   18  .356    7.9   5.2   3.0   2.1   3.0   .5    .16
.01 Terrence Shannon Min   27  .418   10.8   4.2   1.6    .4   1.4   .0    .05
-.01  Bones Hyland   Min    6  .000     .0   2.5   4.3   1.5   1.4  1.3   -.27
-.02  Jaylen Clark   Min    6  .417    5.0   1.3   1.1   1.6    .0   .0   -.34
-.07  Carter Bryant   SA    9  .625    9.1   2.4   1.6    .0   3.7   .0   -.91
shooting : SA .569 - .503 Min + 8.9
rebounds: Min 48.0 - 47.8 SA + 0.2
turnovers: SA 13.5 - 16.0 Min + 3.3

Code: Select all

. SAS   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Fox     130    9.7  -.004   -4.6    .85      Randle  138    6.5  -.090   -5.9    .18
Castle  129   17.4   .192    1.8   1.54    McDaniels 136    9.5   .006   -2.2    .48
Vassell 128   14.7   .168    3.4    .97      Edwards 130   19.4   .113    5.6   1.73
Wemby   116   25.7   .237    7.6   3.00      Gobert  120   16.0   .104    3.6   1.14
Champ'e 112   17.5   .236    6.1   1.25      Reid    113   17.5   .165    5.9   1.24

Harper   99   22.9   .264    6.5   1.78      Shannon 108    5.5  -.015   -5.8    .05
Johnson  78   10.8   .067   -3.9    .55      Dosunmu  73    3.7  -.086   -3.9    .16
Kornet   59   16.2   .208    3.3    .62      Conley   55   17.0   .192    8.5   1.15
Barnes   40   16.8   .232    2.7    .36      Hyland   23   -6.7  -.304  -11.4   -.27
Bryant   36     .1  -.037   -8.3   -.91      Clark    22    6.8   .033   -0.5   -.34

. SAS   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
McL'lin  10   16.8   .264    7.2    .50     Anderson  15   15.3   .024    3.1   1.12
Olynyk   10   20.7   .256    8.8   1.21      Ingles   10   32.5   .290   21.8   2.32
Waters    8   39.0   .438   15.5   3.19     Phillips  10    6.3   .064   -0.8   -.35
.                                           Beringer   8   27.7   .158    5.8   1.94
           
. totals      16.6   .168   2.45   1.26      . totals      11.7   .037   0.29    .74
min. correl:   .31   -.03    .20    .60                     .28    .08   -.08    .28

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Mon May 11, 2026 5:28 pm
by Crow
Fox, 6th on Spurs by 2nd round EWin.

11th on full playoffs BPM. 10th on raw on / off. 52% playoffs ts%.

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Mon May 11, 2026 10:29 pm
by Mike G
In 9 playoff games, De'Aaron Fox has scored as many unassisted points as Castle, Wemby, and Champagnie combined.

Code: Select all

uAPt  Spurs  2FG  3FG   FT   Pts   2uA%  3uA%   uA%
128   Fox     50   14   26   168   .84   .57   .760
61   Castle   37   17   45   170   .57   .06   .360
58   Harper   37    8   26   124   .62   .00   .470
58   Wemby    43   12   35   157   .42   .25   .369

26   Vassell  28   16   10   114   .43   .00   .231
14   Kornet   22    1    9    56   .27   .00   .256
10   Keldon   16    7   13    66   .25   .00   .151
9    Champ'e  10   22    8    94   .40   .00   .093
I just assume FT are 'assisted' at the same rate as FG. No assist is registered, but the points count.
We don't know how much more value is in points from 'shot creators' vs those from catch-and-shoot guys. There is skill in getting open and being ready to shoot, of course. But the buzzer beaters and coast-to-coast points still seem to matter more.

BPM doesn't consider this, nor do the others. eWins estimates uA% and factors it into the scoring rate. For Fox, the estimate is closer to his RS %; but this postseason he's on another level.

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Mon May 11, 2026 11:31 pm
by Crow
Unassisted is often a total choice, ignoring other options. Sometimes there may appear to not be good other options. Either way, a possession used will be scored by its degree of efficiency.

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Tue May 12, 2026 12:25 am
by Mike G
Yes, and a 40% shot is better than no shot. With a shot clock violation, illegal screen, or other TO, nobody took a bad shot.
So eWins distributes team turnovers, adding them proportionately to individual TO.

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Tue May 12, 2026 12:20 pm
by Mike G
Pistons 2 - 2 Cavs
avg score 107.5 - 106.5
Pyth wins 2.12 - 1.88 , eWins 2.06 - 1.94

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.68 Donovan Mitchell Cle   37  .600   31.9   6.7   2.5   1.2   2.3   .0   2.21
.40   Evan Mobley    Cle   37  .589   12.8   7.1   4.1   1.9   1.8  3.0   1.33
.40   Tobias Harris  Det   38  .561   17.7   8.2   1.3   1.2   1.1   .7   1.28
.39  Cade Cunningham Det   41  .522   20.6   5.2   6.4    .9   5.6   .4   1.16
.37   James Harden   Cle   37  .556   17.8   4.3   6.3   1.8   4.1   .7   1.20

.28   Jarrett Allen  Cle   28  .662   16.9   6.8   1.8    .8   1.4  1.9   1.17
.26  Duncan Robinson Det   32  .733   16.7   2.4   2.4   2.4    .6   .3    .95
.25  Ausar Thompson  Det   26  .548   11.6  11.0   3.9   1.2   2.0  1.0   1.13
.20   Caris LeVert   Det   18  .644   18.6   5.9   1.7   2.0    .6   .5   1.35
.19   Paul Reed      Det    6  .839   48.6  12.6   2.6   1.2   3.4   .0   3.93

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Jalen Duren    Det   31  .475   10.1  10.0   2.0   1.0   3.3   .9    .55
.13  Daniss Jenkins  Det   24  .395    9.0   7.6   4.2   1.2   1.7   .0    .64
.09   Max Strus      Cle   27  .507    9.4   6.0   2.1   1.6   1.7   .6    .40
.08  Dennis Schröder Cle   20  .705   15.2   3.4   4.1    .6   4.2   .9    .50
.04  Isaiah Stewart  Det   11  .800   14.4   9.4    .7    .0   2.6   .0    .44

.04   Ron Holland    Det    8  .421    6.9   9.3    .0   2.7   1.2  2.2    .61
.03   Keon Ellis     Cle    4  .600   10.5   6.6    .0   5.0    .0   .0    .91
.02   Jaylon Tyson   Cle   15  .393    4.6   9.3   2.1    .0   1.2   .6    .18
.00   Sam Merrill    Cle    9  .500   10.2   1.0   2.6   1.2   1.0   .0    .03
-.02  Javonte Green  Det    6  .375    5.7   4.9    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.29
-.03  Dean Wade      Cle   23  .667    6.0   6.2    .4    .5   1.3   .0   -.16
shooting : Cle .583 - .562 Det + 2.8
rebounds: Det 40.5 - 35.8 Cle + 3.7
turnovers: 15.3 - 15.3 + 0.0

Code: Select all

. Cle    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Det    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Harden   149   15.9   .080    2.4   1.20   Cunningham 162   15.2   .045    0.7   1.16
Mitchell 148   25.5   .186    6.1   2.21      Harris  150   17.9   .149    3.2   1.28
Mobley   146   18.4   .156    6.2   1.33     Robinson 129   17.9   .208    8.5    .95
Allen    113   18.8   .179    2.9   1.17      Duren   124   10.0   .005   -4.8    .55
Strus    109    8.9   .035   -1.8    .40     Thompson 105   15.8   .123    2.6   1.13

Wade      91    6.6   .037   -1.6   -.16      Jenkins  94   10.4   .034   -3.2    .64
Schröder  78   12.1   .049    0.4    .50      LeVert   71   23.0   .246    9.4   1.35
Tyson     61    6.2  -.008   -4.0    .18      Stewart  44   11.5   .103   -4.9    .44
Merrill   37    6.8   .016   -5.0    .03      Holland  31   10.5   .086   -0.1    .61
Ellis     17   17.1   .184    7.7    .91      Green    25    1.9  -.072   -7.8   -.29
Bryant    10    8.5   .013   -6.4    .18      Reed     23   47.3   .417   20.0   3.93

. totals       15.0   .101   1.97    .97      . totals   9  15.9   .113   2.10   1.03
min. correl:    .71    .61    .71    .76                     .16   -.11    .13    .41

Thunder 4 - 0 Lakers
avg score 119.8 - 103.8
Pyth wins 3.48 - .52 , eWins 2.74 - 1.26

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.66   Chet Holmgren  OKC   33  .684   22.6  12.9   1.2   1.6   1.3  1.7   2.43
.64   Ajay Mitchell  OKC   30  .625   27.9   4.3   6.2   2.0   1.4   .0   2.55
.50   Shai G-A       OKC   34  .563   26.6   2.8   5.8   1.0   4.5  1.1   1.76
.49   LeBron James    LA   38  .578   19.9   6.8   4.3   1.3   3.0   .2   1.55
.37  Is. Hartenstein OKC   28  .795   13.1  14.5   3.4   2.2   3.0  1.0   1.61

.29   Rui Hachimura   LA   39  .721   16.6   4.4   1.8    .8   1.0   .5    .88
.18   Jared McCain   OKC   15  .793   27.3   2.8   1.5    .0    .7   .0   1.50
.17   Austin Reaves   LA   39  .550   17.2   4.6   4.9    .0   5.3   .7    .53
.15   Isaiah Joe     OKC   12  .694   19.6   5.3   4.5   1.4    .9   .0   1.52
.13   Deandre Ayton   LA   25  .453    8.1  13.5    .9    .4   1.2   .7    .65

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Cason Wallace  OKC   24  .692   13.6   3.9   2.2   2.1   1.7   .7    .64
.12   Alex Caruso    OKC   21  .521    9.5   5.8   3.2   2.7    .9   .0    .66
.08   Luke Kennard    LA   27  .769   11.8   3.9   1.3   1.1    .7   .0    .36
.08   Jaxson Hayes    LA   17  .737   14.3   9.8   1.6    .6   3.3   .5    .58
.06  Jaylin Williams OKC   14  .684    8.0  10.1   3.1    .6   1.4   .0    .47

.01   Adou Thiero     LA    6  .364    4.3  18.6   1.1    .0   4.5   .0    .15
.00   Marcus Smart    LA   34  .418    8.9   4.2   3.8   2.4   3.7   .0    .01
-.04  Jake LaRavia    LA    6  .375    3.3   1.7   1.1   3.2   4.5  1.4   -.83
-.05  Luguentz Dort  OKC   26  .568    8.2   3.8   1.9    .7   1.6   .0   -.22
shooting : OKC .635 - .573 LA + 8.4
rebounds: OKC 38.3 - 36.3 LA + 1.6
turnovers: OKC 13.0 - 18.8 LA + 7.6

Code: Select all

. OKC    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . LAL    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai     136   20.7   .146    0.9   1.76      Reaves  157   11.6  -.021   -3.3    .53
Holmgren 130   27.3   .299    6.8   2.43    Hachimura 157   17.5   .114    6.1    .88
Mitchell 121   29.3   .327    8.1   2.55      LeBron  152   18.9   .048    3.8   1.55
Ha'stein 110   20.5   .237    5.0   1.61      Smart   134    5.5  -.106   -4.8    .01
Dort     102    6.0   .051   -2.9   -.22      Kennard 108   13.3   .070    2.5    .36

Wallace   95   15.3   .178    3.7    .64      Ayton    99   11.0  -.026   -5.0    .65
Caruso    85   12.2   .138    1.0    .66      Hayes    67   15.6   .086   -0.5    .58
McCain    58   25.8   .291    8.9   1.50      Thiero   24    4.4  -.066  -10.9    .15
J Will    57   10.7   .153    0.8    .47      LaRavia  24    -.5  -.275   -5.6   -.83
Joe       46   22.2   .275    7.2   1.52   Vanderbilt   9    2.6  -.370   -9.7   -.15

. OKC    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . LAL    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Wiggins   11   11.8   .106   -2.0    .15      Bronny    7   11.0  -.120   -0.8   -.16
K Will     7  -18.6  -.421  -30.5  -1.53      Knecht    7    3.6  -.220   -7.4   1.06
Topić      4   16.8  -.058   -3.1   1.72      Kleber    7  -13.2  -.490  -23.4  -2.04
.                                             Smith     7   45.9   .359   21.9   4.10

. totals       19.2   .203   3.46   1.37     . totals       12.7   .004  -0.47    .63
min. correl:    .39    .16    .04    .54                     .42    .21    .53    .49

Re: 2026 playoffs 2nd round

Posted: Wed May 13, 2026 10:37 am
by Mike G
Spurs 3 - 2 Wolves
avg score 117.0 - 103.6
Pyth wins 4.17 - .83 , eWins 3.34- 1.66

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.01 Vi. Wembanyama   SA   30  .595   26.6  15.3   3.2    .5   3.1  5.5   3.29
.55  Stephon Castle   SA   31  .607   23.3   5.0   6.6   1.1   3.5   .5   1.70
.48  Anthony Edwards Min   34  .599   25.2   5.5   2.2    .2   3.4   .4   1.34
.47   Dylan Harper    SA   25  .619   21.5   8.1   3.2   1.8   2.0   .5   1.80
.33   De'Aaron Fox    SA   33  .459   17.9   2.9   4.3   1.5   2.6   .0    .95

.31   Naz Reid       Min   29  .624   15.4   8.6   2.3    .5   1.3   .7   1.04
.28   Rudy Gobert    Min   28  .506    9.5  10.9   2.1   1.7   2.0  1.6    .96
.28   Devin Vassell   SA   32  .553   13.7   4.3   3.1   1.5   1.0   .5    .84
.27  Jul. Champagnie  SA   28  .580   11.6   7.5   1.9   2.0    .3   .3    .93
.21  Keldon Johnson   SA   20  .560   18.7   5.8   1.2   1.3   2.1   .7    .99

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.18  Jaden McDaniels Min   33  .478   14.3   5.6   1.8    .7   1.7   .7    .53
.14   Ayo Dosunmu    Min   21  .416   10.4   6.5   3.2   2.5   2.9  1.0    .64
.14   Mike Conley    Min   14  .737   15.5   2.8   5.2    .5   1.1   .0    .95
.10   Julius Randle  Min   35  .446   13.7   7.6   1.3    .9   4.1   .0    .27
.07   Luke Kornet     SA   14  .682    7.4   6.0    .8   2.2   1.4  3.2    .49

.03  Harrison Barnes  SA    9  .727   10.6   5.9    .6    .7    .7   .7    .38
-.02  Jaylen Clark   Min    5  .417    4.3   1.2   1.0   1.4    .0   .0   -.47
-.03  Bones Hyland   Min    5  .000     .0   3.4   3.8   1.3   2.6  1.2   -.47
-.04  Ter. Shannon   Min   25  .391    9.5   3.7   2.2    .3   1.8   .0   -.16
-.05  Carter Bryant   SA   10  .722   10.0   4.3   2.4    .0   3.5   .0   -.49
shooting : SA .578 - .501 Min + 10.3
rebounds: SA 48.2 - 46.8 Min + 1.1
turnovers: SA 13.8 - 16.0 Min + 2.9

Code: Select all

min. correl:   .15   -.05    .09    .40                     .37    .16    .09    .34
. SAS   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Min    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Fox     165   10.7   .037   -4.0    .95      Randle  174    7.7  -.078   -5.3    .27
Vassell 160   13.8   .162    2.5    .84      Edwards 170   17.2   .079    3.5   1.34
Castle  156   18.3   .200    2.7   1.70    McDaniels 165   10.6   .009   -1.5    .53
Wemby   148   27.4   .266    9.0   3.29      Reid    144   16.3   .141    5.1   1.04
Champ'e 141   15.1   .215    4.3    .93      Gobert  142   15.0   .083    2.4    .96

Harper  124   22.6   .263    5.8   1.80      Shannon 125    3.6  -.054   -7.2   -.16
Johnson 100   15.9   .145   -0.5    .99      Dosunmu 107    8.4  -.036   -0.5    .64
Kornet   70   15.0   .202    3.3    .49      Conley   70   16.3   .178    7.4    .95
Bryant   48    3.6   .035   -3.8   -.49      Hyland   26   -9.0  -.387  -14.0   -.47
Barnes   44   16.6   .249    3.3    .38      Clark    25    6.1   .016   -1.2   -.47

. SAS   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . Min    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
McL'lin  13   17.6   .293    8.7    .69     Anderson  18   11.7  -.043    0.1    .80
Olynyk   12   27.3   .348   14.7   1.97     Phillips  13    1.9  -.027   -4.8   -.67
Waters   10   39.6   .430   16.6   3.34     Beringer  11   30.8   .162    6.1   2.65
Biyombo   5   12.3   .078  -13.1    .40      Ingles   10   32.5   .281   21.8   2.34

. totals      17.0   .184   2.90   1.33     . totals       11.5   .024  -0.10    .67