2010 Finals : Celtics vs Lakers (Mike G, 2008)

[Crow]

Who's gonna win?
Bos 4-0
0%
0% [ 0 ]
Bos 4-1
10%
10% [ 2 ]
Bos 4-2
30%
30% [ 6 ]
Bos 4-3
10%
10% [ 2 ]
LA 4-3
25%
25% [ 5 ]
LA 4-2
25%
25% [ 5 ]
LA 4-1
0%
0% [ 0 ]
LA 4-0
0%
0% [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 20

Author Message
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3578
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:18 am Post subject: 2010 Finals : Celtics vs Lakers Reply with quote
The series features 10 players from each team who have known playoff histories of at least 213 minutes coming into this season. I haven't used this year's minutes in their career playoff / regular-season productivity (T) ratio : po/rs.

Playoff overachievers and underachievers tend to carry that particular trait throughout their career. Individual playoff series may vary widely, as do whole postseasons. But it's still better to know a player's po/rs history than to not know it.

So I've grabbed that vital statistic, along with this year's T rate and eWins/480 rate; projected minutes per game for each player; regressed to the mean their po/rs, according to career playoff minutes; further diminished their expectations due to the competition (summing to 1.00 eW per game).

I've also given the Lakers a boost relative to the Celtics, due to their season's stats being accrued in a tougher environment (the West).

Code:
Celtics poMin po/rs adjP/R T e480 T2 e2 mpg eW/G
Rasheed Wallace 5407 .92 .91 24.7 1.06 22.4 .79 20 .033
Michael Finley 3751 .88 .88 19.8 .61 17.4 .27 3 .002
Paul Pierce 3096 .95 .93 29.8 1.53 27.6 1.30 38 .103
Ray Allen 3045 .93 .91 24.5 1.04 22.2 .78 38 .062
Kevin Garnett 2990 .90 .89 33.0 1.84 29.5 1.47 34 .104

Rajon Rondo 1403 1.04 .98 28.5 1.42 28.1 1.37 38 .108
Kendrick Perkins 1165 .99 .95 27.3 1.31 26.0 1.16 28 .067
Glen Davis 640 1.16 1.07 21.0 .72 22.5 .91 24 .045
Marquis Daniels 571 .88 .88 16.8 .32 14.8 -.16 3 -.001
Tony Allen 213 .58 .72 23.3 .93 16.7 .15 14 .004
totals 240 .527

Lakers poMin po/rs adjP/R T e480 T2 e2 mpg eW/G
Kobe Bryant 6823 .94 .93 34.4 1.96 31.8 1.70 40 .141
Derek Fisher 4716 .99 .96 16.3 .27 15.6 .06 36 .004
Lamar Odom 2512 1.01 .98 27.1 1.28 26.5 1.22 32 .081
Pau Gasol 2180 .91 .91 34.3 1.96 31.3 1.65 40 .137
Ron Artest 1683 .95 .94 19.6 .59 18.4 .42 34 .030

Luke Walton 1172 .98 .95 17.1 .36 16.3 .19 2 .001
Sasha Vujacic 867 .73 .80 18.4 .48 14.7 -.11 2 .000
Jordan Farmar 724 .90 .90 19.8 .61 17.9 .34 14 .010
Andrew Bynum 443 .80 .85 31.5 1.69 26.6 1.18 20 .049
Shannon Brown 261 .97 .95 20.0 .63 19.0 .49 20 .020
totals 240 .473

An eWin differential of .527-.473 is equivalent to a pythagorean of .554-.446.
This first pass therefore favors Boston by 1.6 PPG; but the Lakes have a home court advantage.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 03, 2010 8:14 am Post subject: Reply with quote
As seen in other threads, series by series performances by the Finalists --
Celtics:
Code:
Allen,Ray
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .140 35 .678 26.9 3.0 3.6 1.0 1.9 .0 1.92 19 31.9
Cle .056 39 .537 15.2 3.6 2.0 .9 1.3 .3 .70 12 19.7
Orl .084 41 .570 15.7 4.6 2.9 .9 1.0 .1 .99 13 23.5

Allen,Tony
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .021 17 .525 14.1 3.1 .8 3.1 1.6 1.2 .61 0 20.0
Cle .045 20 .610 16.3 6.0 1.5 2.2 1.9 1.1 1.08 0 23.1
Orl -.007 14 .529 8.0 3.5 2.3 .8 2.8 .8 -.23 0 10.9

Davis,Glen
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .058 22 .557 15.9 8.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 .0 1.26 0 25.9
Cle .010 16 .500 13.1 6.7 .6 1.0 2.4 .7 .31 0 16.3
Orl .042 22 .588 13.4 8.3 .2 1.0 1.0 1.0 .90 0 22.5

Garnett,Kevin
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .117 28 .600 20.2 10.2 2.6 1.8 2.1 .5 2.01 0 32.7
Cle .143 34 .551 21.2 9.7 2.1 .5 1.4 .9 2.00 0 31.4
Orl .075 33 .405 10.5 9.9 2.5 1.1 .8 .8 1.11 0 24.6

Perkins,Kendrick
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .008 28 .468 8.0 11.1 1.6 .3 4.1 2.9 .14 0 15.8
Cle .050 26 .606 10.3 11.0 .8 .2 1.4 3.2 .92 0 21.7
Orl .011 23 .450 7.3 8.2 1.5 1.6 3.5 1.9 .23 0 15.7

Pierce,Paul
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .129 39 .576 22.5 6.0 3.1 .6 2.5 .8 1.61 11 29.1
Cle .044 35 .433 13.1 5.6 3.5 1.2 2.6 .2 .61 8 19.0
Orl .203 42 .652 27.0 8.0 3.2 1.3 2.6 .4 2.33 13 37.1

Rondo,Rajon
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .155 42 .493 14.3 6.1 9.0 2.1 2.6 .2 1.78 3 30.7
Cle .208 42 .579 20.9 6.3 9.4 1.6 3.2 .0 2.39 3 34.8
Orl .093 40 .455 13.3 3.5 6.9 1.8 2.4 .0 1.10 1 24.5

Wallace,Rasheed
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .001 13 .487 9.6 5.4 1.0 .5 .5 .5 .05 0 15.0
Cle .013 17 .597 12.2 5.1 .3 1.3 .6 1.0 .37 5 16.8
Orl .039 16 .574 19.3 5.7 .0 .7 1.0 1.7 1.14 9 24.9


Lakers:
Code:
Artest,Ron
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl -.003 37 .395 6.2 3.0 2.4 1.6 .7 .8 -.04 6 14.0
Uta .033 35 .490 11.3 3.6 2.5 1.3 .8 .3 .46 6 18.7
Phx .045 38 .544 12.2 5.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 .3 .56 11 19.9

Brown,Shannon
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .014 15 .514 14.2 2.9 2.3 1.4 1.8 .4 .43 3 18.3
Uta .010 19 .439 10.8 3.7 1.1 1.8 1.8 .9 .27 3 16.6
Phx .006 13 .413 9.5 3.5 2.4 .9 1.8 1.3 .22 3 15.9

Bryant,Kobe
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .138 37 .498 25.6 4.1 3.9 1.3 3.5 .3 1.81 12 30.7
Uta .187 41 .598 32.1 3.5 4.4 .7 3.6 .7 2.19 3 37.4
Phx .220 42 .631 30.0 7.0 5.6 .7 2.2 1.0 2.53 19 43.3

Bynum,Andrew
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .105 30 .576 15.8 11.3 1.1 .4 1.4 2.7 1.70 0 29.7
Uta .074 25 .564 10.8 13.4 1.6 .7 .7 2.6 1.44 0 29.3
Phx .043 18 .614 14.1 13.1 .3 .3 2.0 2.4 1.14 0 26.8

Farmar,Jordan
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .017 14 .559 14.3 4.3 2.8 .8 1.9 .0 .59 5 19.7
Uta -.004 10 .471 9.8 .8 1.3 .8 .8 .0 -.18 4 11.8
Phx .025 15 .700 14.9 3.1 4.8 2.3 2.3 .0 .81 9 22.9

Fisher,Derek
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .021 32 .570 13.2 2.7 3.5 1.1 2.7 .2 .32 14 17.3
Uta .025 37 .577 11.2 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.5 .0 .32 5 17.2
Phx .025 34 .592 12.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.3 .0 .35 6 17.4

Gasol,Pau
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .183 36 .571 20.8 12.5 3.4 .2 1.9 1.4 2.43 0 36.3
Uta .216 40 .662 25.1 13.9 2.2 .5 2.5 2.5 2.61 0 42.1
Phx .102 41 .596 17.0 7.2 2.5 .1 1.3 1.6 1.20 0 27.5

Odom,Lamar
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .043 26 .456 9.4 9.1 2.2 .9 1.3 1.7 .79 4 21.5
Uta .070 28 .603 11.6 12.6 1.8 .0 .9 1.8 1.20 3 26.7
Phx .096 34 .503 12.8 13.7 2.5 1.2 1.5 .5 1.34 2 29.2


Rates are per-36, adjusted for opponent scoring and rebounding, for % of minutes played vs starters, for % of points unassisted, % of teammates' FG assisted, etc.
Eff% = Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA)

At this moment, there are 5 poll votes for Bos, 4 for LA.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 8:46 am Post subject: Reply with quote
LA 1 , Bos 0
102 - 89 : Pyth .86 - .14 , eWins .68 - .32
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.25 Bryant,Kobe LA 39 .556 33.7 8.7 5.6 3.8 .9 3.8 .9 3.09
.24 Gasol,Pau LA 47 .605 21.3 14.3 2.3 3.1 .8 2.3 2.3 2.43
.15 Pierce,Paul Bos 46 .615 20.1 7.7 3.0 3.9 .0 2.4 1.6 1.54
.10 Artest,Ron LA 33 .682 18.3 5.9 1.1 4.5 2.2 .0 1.1 1.52
.07 Rondo,Rajon Bos 40 .406 10.5 5.9 7.0 1.8 .0 1.8 .0 .87

.07 Garnett,Kevin Bos 35 .471 14.9 4.6 1.0 3.2 2.1 1.1 1.1 .93
.06 Fisher,Derek LA 28 .474 12.4 5.2 3.9 4.0 1.3 .0 .0 .99
.05 Bynum,Andrew LA 28 .625 14.9 10.5 .0 4.0 .0 1.3 .0 .85
.04 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .900 19.1 8.0 .0 5.5 .0 1.8 1.8 1.16
.04 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 24 .889 15.1 5.0 1.5 4.6 1.5 1.5 .0 .71

.02 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .500 11.3 6.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 .0 .68
.01 Robinson,Nate Bos 13 .000 .0 5.4 9.7 5.0 .0 .0 .0 .34
.00 Vujacic,Sasha LA 8 .000 .0 5.3 7.9 4.0 .0 .0 .0 .13
.00 Odom,Lamar LA 21 .357 7.7 8.5 1.6 8.0 .0 3.2 1.6 .03

-.01 Davis,Glen Bos 19 .375 4.5 5.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 .0 -.13
-.02 Allen,Ray Bos 27 .545 16.2 .0 .0 6.9 .0 2.7 .0 -.30
-.03 Allen,Tony Bos 17 .400 7.0 .0 .0 7.8 2.0 3.9 2.0 -.80
-.04 Brown,Shannon LA 17 .600 .0 2.6 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -1.01
LA owned the boards, 42-31.
Poll reads LA 7 , Bos 6
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:12 am Post subject: Reply with quote
The Beta SPM evaluation of this game:

Code:
Boston Celtics Adjust 0.13
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Paul Pierce -1.09 1.11 0.23 -2.21 0.61 2.76 1.70 3.24 95.1% 3.08
Rajon Rondo 1.56 -0.77 3.77 -2.21 -0.80 -4.41 1.01 -1.72 82.3% -1.41
Kevin Garnett 0.42 -0.67 -1.30 3.32 0.12 -0.80 0.47 1.69 72.5% 1.22
Ray Allen -1.09 -1.41 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 -0.58 -0.37 -8.59 56.9% -4.89
Kendrick Perkins -0.01 -0.37 -1.21 1.76 -0.80 4.36 -0.70 3.16 50.9% 1.61
Reserves
Glen Davis 0.32 -0.04 -0.94 2.97 -0.80 -4.52 -1.36 -4.24 38.8% -1.64
Rasheed Wallace -1.09 1.39 -2.26 -2.21 0.96 7.14 -1.40 2.67 37.9% 1.01
Tony Allen -1.09 -1.41 -2.26 3.66 1.13 -7.91 -1.59 -9.33 34.5% -3.22
Nate Robinson -1.09 0.56 4.59 -2.21 -0.80 -9.86 -1.99 -10.67 27.1% -2.89
Michael Finley -1.09 -1.41 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 -0.76 -3.24 -11.63 4.0% -0.47

LA Lakers Adjust -0.13
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Pau Gasol 3.41 0.24 -0.25 -0.14 1.27 2.04 1.81 8.23 97.0% 7.99
Kobe Bryant -0.41 0.57 3.75 0.21 0.03 1.18 0.92 6.13 80.7% 4.95
Ron Artest -0.30 -0.24 -1.36 3.66 0.17 6.73 0.26 8.78 68.5% 6.01
Andrew Bynum -1.09 1.31 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 2.21 -0.28 -3.24 58.6% -1.90
Derek Fisher -1.09 -0.05 0.62 1.25 -0.80 0.56 -0.28 0.08 58.6% 0.04
Reserves
Lamar Odom 0.13 0.39 -1.02 -2.21 0.69 -7.79 -1.05 -10.99 44.3% -4.87
Shannon Brown -1.09 -0.67 -2.26 -2.21 -0.80 3.42 -1.49 -5.22 36.4% -1.90
Jordan Farmar 0.88 -0.45 -0.03 5.04 -0.80 -3.28 -1.96 -0.73 27.7% -0.20
Sasha Vujacic -1.09 0.14 3.12 -2.21 -0.80 -5.58 -2.53 -9.08 17.2% -1.56
Luke Walton -1.09 -1.41 2.00 -2.21 5.31 -8.35 -2.87 -8.74 10.9% -0.95


It is interesting to compare the differences between eWins and the beta SPM. Particularly the Scoring/Turnover portion. Ron Artest and Rasheed Wallace got the most credit in this beta SPM for their scoring because they were very efficient and didn't turn the ball over much.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 3:01 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
It would be more interesting if you were posting cumulative numbers. Single games are kind of momentary. Maybe it's personal preference, but I can hardly wait until players like Ray Allen are out of the negative. It's inconceivable that his contributions are actually less than nothing.

His -.30 eWins/480 Min suggest he was 130% less effective than the average player. This is hard for me to get my head around. Players don't have to be a negative version of themselves to lose by 13 points. Being 80-90% of normal will do that.

After 2 games, about half as many guys will be negative. For a whole series, it's pretty rare to net minus eWins. Orlando (vs Bos) only had Ryan Anderson (11 minutes) below zero.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 3:16 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
It would be more interesting if you were posting cumulative numbers. Single games are kind of momentary. Maybe it's personal preference, but I can hardly wait until players like Ray Allen are out of the negative. It's inconceivable that his contributions are actually less than nothing.

His -.30 eWins/480 Min suggest he was 130% less effective than the average player. This is hard for me to get my head around. Players don't have to be a negative version of themselves to lose by 13 points. Being 80-90% of normal will do that.

After 2 games, about half as many guys will be negative. For a whole series, it's pretty rare to net minus eWins. Orlando (vs Bos) only had Ryan Anderson (11 minutes) below zero.


On SPM, by definition at the end of a series the sum will be 0 (as it is for each game). The winning team's total SPM will equal half of the efficiency margin, the lowing team's total SPM will equal minus half of the efficiency margin. Each player is measured against the other players in the game, with the average player in the game/series/league equaling 0.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 7:15 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
So it is. Average is zero, in Plusminusland.
And what is the frame of reference of a player that's, say, half as good as average? As good as 2 avg players? To answer this, we would have a SPM value equivalent to the 'replacement player', no?

Of 9 Celts playing over 2 minutes, 3 were <0 eW; and 3 were < -4.24 SPM -- these 3 were also < -8.5 , so maybe the RP SPM is in that range?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:34 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
So it is. Average is zero, in Plusminusland.
And what is the frame of reference of a player that's, say, half as good as average? As good as 2 avg players? To answer this, we would have a SPM value equivalent to the 'replacement player', no?

Of 9 Celts playing over 2 minutes, 3 were <0 eW; and 3 were < -4.24 SPM -- these 3 were also < -8.5 , so maybe the RP SPM is in that range?


I generally see replacement level as -3, though in one game (as you noted) the spread is obviously wider.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 06, 2010 7:37 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Better late than never, the playoff rates for these Finalists (thru round 3) --
Code:
per36 rates
eW eW/G LAKERS mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
2.90 .181 Bryant,Kobe 40 .581 29.0 5.1 4.7 .9 3.0 .7 2.19
2.57 .161 Gasol,Pau 39 .608 20.4 10.8 2.7 .2 1.8 1.8 1.99
1.19 .074 Bynum,Andrew 24 .584 14.0 12.3 1.0 .5 1.4 2.6 1.47
1.12 .070 Odom,Lamar 30 .514 11.4 11.9 2.2 .8 1.3 1.2 1.13
.38 .024 Artest,Ron 37 .398 9.7 3.9 2.1 1.6 .9 .5 .31

.37 .023 Fisher,Derek 34 .580 12.3 2.7 2.9 1.5 1.8 .1 .33
.24 .015 Farmar,Jordan 13 .611 13.7 3.1 3.3 1.4 1.9 .0 .53
.16 .010 Brown,Shannon 15 .467 11.7 3.3 2.0 1.4 1.8 .8 .32
-.01 -.001 Walton,Luke 6 .427 6.6 3.3 4.4 .5 1.1 .0 -.09
-.01 -.002 Vujacic,Sasha 4 .714 14.1 1.6 .0 .0 2.8 .0 -.24

per36 rates
eW eW/G CELTICS mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
2.58 .152 Rondo,Rajon 41 .522 16.3 5.3 8.4 1.8 2.8 .1 1.76
2.13 .125 Pierce,Paul 38 .585 21.2 6.6 3.2 1.1 2.6 .4 1.56
1.90 .112 Garnett,Kevin 32 .534 17.1 9.9 2.4 1.1 1.3 .7 1.68
1.54 .090 Allen,Ray 38 .603 18.5 3.8 2.8 1.0 1.3 .2 1.14
.60 .035 Davis,Glen 20 .554 14.1 7.8 .7 1.3 1.5 .6 .85

.41 .024 Perkins,Kendrick 26 .523 8.6 10.2 1.3 .7 2.9 2.7 .45
.33 .020 Allen,Tony 17 .569 13.2 4.4 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.0 .55
.32 .019 Wallace,Rasheed 16 .567 14.2 5.4 .4 .9 .7 1.1 .57
.12 .020 Robinson,Nate 5 .475 22.3 3.8 3.3 2.3 .0 1.1 1.97
-.06 -.003 Finley,Michael 6 .514 4.5 3.7 1.1 1.2 .0 .0 -.27
MPG and eW/G are a bit inconsistent for lesser players who did not appear in certain series.
Eff% are 'reconstituted' from the Eff% of 3 series, not from total pts/attempts. They could be off a bit.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 8:21 am Post subject: Reply with quote
LA 1 , Bos 1
98.0 - 96.0 (LA) : Pyth 1.14 - .86 , eWins 1.07 - .93
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.40 Gasol,Pau LA 45 .676 23.7 10.2 2.4 2.8 .8 1.6 3.7 2.18
.33 Bryant,Kobe LA 37 .526 27.4 6.9 5.9 4.5 2.5 4.5 .5 2.18
.25 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .438 13.2 8.9 7.7 1.8 .9 2.2 .4 1.46
.17 Bynum,Andrew LA 34 .646 19.5 7.5 .0 4.4 .0 1.6 3.8 1.23
.16 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .688 26.4 1.7 1.0 4.1 .0 2.1 .0 1.07

.15 Pierce,Paul Bos 43 .507 14.4 6.1 3.2 3.4 .4 2.1 1.3 .85
.12 Garnett,Kevin Bos 30 .478 13.1 5.6 4.2 5.0 1.2 .6 .6 1.00
.10 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .800 19.3 11.7 .9 6.7 .0 1.9 1.0 1.37
.10 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 28 .690 16.0 6.6 2.5 4.6 .7 2.0 .0 .86
.07 Fisher,Derek LA 32 .405 7.6 6.7 4.0 3.5 .6 .6 .0 .51

.05 Davis,Glen Bos 19 .314 7.6 10.4 1.8 4.7 1.9 1.9 .9 .63
.04 Robinson,Nate Bos 10 .583 13.7 4.0 6.9 3.6 .0 .0 .0 1.10
.04 Artest,Ron LA 37 .420 9.1 5.1 1.0 4.9 2.0 1.5 .5 .24
.03 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .500 14.9 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.9 .0 .51
.02 Vujacic,Sasha LA 8 .750 8.6 5.1 6.7 2.2 .0 .0 .0 .77

.01 Odom,Lamar LA 18 .381 6.5 9.8 1.9 9.6 .0 2.9 1.0 .10
.00 Brown,Shannon LA 16 .500 7.9 3.7 1.1 1.1 .0 .0 1.1 .07
-.02 Allen,Tony Bos 15 .375 5.9 .0 1.1 7.1 3.5 2.4 1.2 -.32
Lakers shooting .536 to Celts' .527, also leading by 3 Reb/G.
Poll reads LA 10, Bos 8. (It was 8-7 starting last night's game.)
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 9:18 am Post subject: Reply with quote
SPM evaluation of game 2:

Code:
Boston Celtics Adjust 1.28
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Ray Allen -0.60 -0.86 -0.91 -2.65 -1.52 9.84 1.23 5.81 90.6% 5.27
Rajon Rondo 1.12 0.71 3.58 1.67 -0.51 -2.36 1.06 6.55 87.4% 5.73
Paul Pierce -0.53 -0.54 -0.22 -0.40 -0.47 -4.33 0.84 -4.39 83.4% -3.66
Kendrick Perkins -0.39 0.35 -0.12 -2.65 -1.52 1.01 -0.09 -2.14 66.2% -1.41
Kevin Garnett -1.14 0.47 2.96 -2.65 -1.52 1.31 -1.01 -0.29 49.4% -0.14
Reserves
Glen Davis 5.39 -0.16 -0.75 2.36 0.85 -10.81 -1.63 -3.47 37.8% -1.31
Rasheed Wallace 0.17 2.25 -0.88 -2.65 -1.52 2.62 -1.64 -0.38 37.7% -0.14
Tony Allen -1.14 -1.36 -0.71 11.85 -1.52 -1.79 -2.28 4.33 26.0% 1.13
Nate Robinson -1.14 -1.36 -2.15 -2.65 -1.52 29.42 -3.01 18.87 12.6% 2.37
Shelden Williams -1.14 1.23 -2.15 -2.65 -1.52 -25.02 -3.21 -33.18 8.8% -2.92

LA Lakers Adjust -1.28
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Pau Gasol 0.56 -0.07 -0.49 -0.40 4.63 9.15 1.06 13.16 87.4% 11.51
Ron Artest 0.02 -0.55 -1.69 1.84 -1.52 -8.91 0.89 -11.20 84.4% -9.45
Andrew Bynum 0.69 -0.52 -2.15 -2.65 6.22 4.85 0.72 5.88 81.3% 4.78
Derek Fisher -0.45 0.53 0.10 -2.65 -1.52 -3.44 0.23 -8.48 72.2% -6.13
Kobe Bryant -1.14 0.23 2.41 7.88 -1.52 -4.62 0.19 2.16 71.5% 1.54
Reserves
Shannon Brown -1.14 0.08 -0.96 -2.65 1.34 -1.51 -1.98 -8.10 31.4% -2.54
Lamar Odom -1.14 2.36 -0.80 -2.65 -1.52 -3.38 -2.03 -10.44 30.5% -3.18
Jordan Farmar -1.14 -1.36 -0.13 4.43 -1.52 -5.10 -2.23 -8.33 26.8% -2.23
Sasha Vujacic 2.26 -1.36 1.03 -2.65 -1.52 11.95 -2.90 5.53 14.5% 0.81


Gasol and Bynum dominated, but Artest and Fisher were awful. For Boston, Allen and Rondo did very well (though in different ways).
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Manchvegasbob



Joined: 03 Aug 2008
Posts: 52


PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 3:06 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
LA 1 , Bos 1
98.0 - 96.0 (LA) : Pyth 1.14 - .86 , eWins 1.07 - .93
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.40 Gasol,Pau LA 45 .676 23.7 10.2 2.4 2.8 .8 1.6 3.7 2.18
.33 Bryant,Kobe LA 37 .526 27.4 6.9 5.9 4.5 2.5 4.5 .5 2.18
.25 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .438 13.2 8.9 7.7 1.8 .9 2.2 .4 1.46
.17 Bynum,Andrew LA 34 .646 19.5 7.5 .0 4.4 .0 1.6 3.8 1.23
.16 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .688 26.4 1.7 1.0 4.1 .0 2.1 .0 1.07

.15 Pierce,Paul Bos 43 .507 14.4 6.1 3.2 3.4 .4 2.1 1.3 .85
.12 Garnett,Kevin Bos 30 .478 13.1 5.6 4.2 5.0 1.2 .6 .6 1.00
.10 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .800 19.3 11.7 .9 6.7 .0 1.9 1.0 1.37
.10 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 28 .690 16.0 6.6 2.5 4.6 .7 2.0 .0 .86
.07 Fisher,Derek LA 32 .405 7.6 6.7 4.0 3.5 .6 .6 .0 .51

.05 Davis,Glen Bos 19 .314 7.6 10.4 1.8 4.7 1.9 1.9 .9 .63
.04 Robinson,Nate Bos 10 .583 13.7 4.0 6.9 3.6 .0 .0 .0 1.10
.04 Artest,Ron LA 37 .420 9.1 5.1 1.0 4.9 2.0 1.5 .5 .24
.03 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .500 14.9 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.9 .0 .51
.02 Vujacic,Sasha LA 8 .750 8.6 5.1 6.7 2.2 .0 .0 .0 .77

.01 Odom,Lamar LA 18 .381 6.5 9.8 1.9 9.6 .0 2.9 1.0 .10
.00 Brown,Shannon LA 16 .500 7.9 3.7 1.1 1.1 .0 .0 1.1 .07
-.02 Allen,Tony Bos 15 .375 5.9 .0 1.1 7.1 3.5 2.4 1.2 -.32
Lakers shooting .536 to Celts' .527, also leading by 3 Reb/G.
Poll reads LA 10, Bos 8. (It was 8-7 starting last night's game.)


Do you think that the presence 8 Celtics in the top 12 has neutralized the dominance of Gasol and Bryant who are at the top of the eWin heap?

Clearly the Celtics bench has been outplaying the Lakers . . .
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3578
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 4:07 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Not quite. Top 2 Celts, Rondo and Ray, are barely = Gasol.
Their next 4, Pierce, KG, Sheed, and Perk (total .47) are not quite = Kobe + Bynum (.50) .

Pierce and Garnett are clearly due to check in. Who for the Lakers is overdue? -- Odom, of course.
Pretty sure Artest will not do anything splendid.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3578
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 7:55 am Post subject: Reply with quote
LA 2 , Bos 1
95.7 - 92.0 : Pyth 1.88 - 1.12 , eWins 1.69 - 1.31
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.59 Bryant,Kobe LA 39 .491 26.8 6.8 5.0 3.4 2.2 3.1 1.2 2.43
.57 Gasol,Pau LA 43 .616 20.2 10.5 2.8 2.5 .6 1.4 3.1 2.13
.36 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .443 12.2 6.8 7.2 2.3 1.2 1.5 .3 1.38
.31 Garnett,Kevin Bos 30 .573 20.8 6.2 3.8 5.2 .8 1.6 .8 1.61
.25 Bynum,Andrew LA 32 .580 16.6 9.7 .0 3.8 .0 1.5 3.1 1.26

.22 Pierce,Paul Bos 40 .521 15.3 5.0 2.9 3.9 .3 1.5 .9 .87
.15 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 26 .610 13.5 10.4 2.2 4.3 .5 2.4 .0 .92
.13 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .600 12.1 10.4 2.4 6.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.14
.10 Fisher,Derek LA 35 .477 10.8 5.3 2.8 3.9 .4 1.1 .0 .45
.08 Davis,Glen Bos 20 .460 12.9 8.1 1.1 4.5 1.1 2.8 .6 .60

.07 Odom,Lamar LA 21 .625 12.5 8.8 1.6 7.6 .0 2.2 .5 .55
.07 Robinson,Nate Bos 8 .600 17.9 3.0 5.2 4.1 .0 .0 .0 1.27
.05 Farmar,Jordan LA 11 .500 14.9 4.8 3.1 2.1 2.1 4.1 .0 .66
.04 Vujacic,Sasha LA 5 .833 14.4 4.9 6.3 2.1 .0 .0 .0 1.30
.04 Allen,Ray Bos 38 .500 14.4 2.5 1.2 3.2 .0 1.9 .0 .16

.02 Artest,Ron LA 32 .397 7.8 5.2 1.1 4.5 1.5 1.5 .8 .11
.00 Allen,Tony Bos 16 .500 9.2 1.5 1.3 4.9 2.1 1.4 .7 .02
.00 Walton,Luke LA 6 1.00 5.7 4.4 3.8 5.7 .0 1.9 1.9 .00
-.00 Brown,Shannon LA 16 .545 7.9 3.3 .7 1.4 .0 .0 .7 -.03

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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 602
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains

PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:20 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Beta SPM single game analysis:
Code:
Boston Celtics Adjust -0.31
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Rajon Rondo -0.99 -0.62 2.79 3.40 -0.65 0.51 1.20 5.34 88.5% 4.73
Ray Allen -0.40 -0.61 -0.86 -1.26 -0.65 -13.42 1.16 -16.35 87.8% -14.36
Paul Pierce -0.99 -0.76 -0.30 -1.26 -0.65 4.27 0.24 0.24 70.7% 0.17
Kevin Garnett 0.59 0.04 2.15 -1.26 0.45 7.41 -0.01 9.06 66.1% 5.99
Kendrick Perkins 4.74 1.81 -0.82 -1.26 -0.65 -5.40 -1.15 -3.05 45.2% -1.38
Reserves
Glen Davis -0.99 0.05 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 2.23 -0.92 -3.67 49.4% -1.81
Tony Allen -0.99 -0.26 -0.51 -1.26 -0.65 6.09 -1.35 0.75 41.5% 0.31
Rasheed Wallace -0.99 1.08 1.70 9.61 1.20 -6.13 -1.49 4.67 38.9% 1.82
Nate Robinson -0.99 -1.44 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 11.81 -2.96 2.39 11.9% 0.28

LA Lakers Adjust 0.31
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Kobe Bryant 0.16 -0.10 0.98 3.40 1.73 -1.01 1.36 6.81 91.4% 6.22
Derek Fisher -0.99 -0.58 -1.19 -1.26 -0.65 1.27 1.01 -2.07 85.0% -1.76
Pau Gasol 0.30 0.97 0.75 -1.26 1.11 -0.44 0.80 2.54 81.2% 2.06
Andrew Bynum 3.29 0.57 -1.82 -1.26 0.54 -2.20 -0.30 -0.89 60.8% -0.54
Ron Artest 0.07 -0.44 -0.89 -1.26 0.85 -5.32 -0.96 -7.65 48.6% -3.72
Reserves
Lamar Odom -0.09 0.24 -0.82 -1.26 -0.65 9.04 -0.45 6.31 58.0% 3.66
Shannon Brown -0.99 -0.69 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 3.84 -1.85 -3.11 32.3% -1.00
Luke Walton -0.99 0.35 -0.08 -1.26 -0.65 3.71 -2.12 -0.73 27.3% -0.20
Jordan Farmar -0.99 1.90 1.82 -1.26 -0.65 -6.74 -2.81 -8.41 14.7% -1.23
Sasha Vujacic -0.99 -1.44 -1.82 -1.26 -0.65 125.43 -3.57 116.01 0.7% 0.77


Kobe was good, Ray Allen was very bad. That about sums up this game! Odom played well, also. KG and Rondo did well, but couldn't make up for Ray.

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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:33 am Post subject: Reply with quote
I was kind of surprised to see Kobe taking a large lead in eWins, after a 10-29 shooting performance. But this SPM indicates the same, that his contribution was tops for the game.

He had 7 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, just 1 TO, and 3 blocks. I thought they were amazing blocks, though that doesn't count extra in any of our computations.

Rondo, with all of his versatility, still has shooting issues. Last night it was FT (1-4). In 3 games, effectively shooting .443.

How does Davis look so badly (-3.7) in SPM? He really got the Celts back in the game.

Lakers 2-15 from the arc. Including that banker from Odom.
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DSMok1



Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 611
Location: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plains

PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:58 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
I was kind of surprised to see Kobe taking a large lead in eWins, after a 10-29 shooting performance. But this SPM indicates the same, that his contribution was tops for the game.

He had 7 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, just 1 TO, and 3 blocks. I thought they were amazing blocks, though that doesn't count extra in any of our computations.

Rondo, with all of his versatility, still has shooting issues. Last night it was FT (1-4). In 3 games, effectively shooting .443.

How does Davis look so badly (-3.7) in SPM? He really got the Celts back in the game.

Lakers 2-15 from the arc. Including that banker from Odom.


Glen Davis: No ORBs, no assists, no steals, no blocks. Together, that made up for his good scoring performance (+2.23).
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back2newbelf



Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274


PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 5:00 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:

How does Davis look so badly (-3.7) in SPM? He really got the Celts back in the game.

I think he had two offensive fouls and one turnover where Artest made the ball bounce out of bounds off Davis' hand, most or all of it in the 4th quarter too.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 7:47 am Post subject: Reply with quote
back2newbelf wrote:
Mike G wrote:

How does Davis look so badly (-3.7) in SPM? He really got the Celts back in the game.

I think he had two offensive fouls and one turnover where Artest made the ball bounce out of bounds off Davis' hand, most or all of it in the 4th quarter too.


The Offensive fouls aren't accounted for in SPM except as turnovers... but the turnovers do hurt.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 9:31 am Post subject: Reply with quote
LA 2 , Bos 2
Avg score 94-93 (LA) : Pyth 2.14 - 1.86 , eWins 2.07 - 1.93
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.77 Bryant,Kobe LA 40 .526 28.6 6.5 4.0 3.6 2.0 3.9 .9 2.30
.69 Gasol,Pau LA 43 .607 20.1 9.2 2.7 2.7 .4 1.9 2.7 1.92
.43 Rondo,Rajon Bos 39 .411 11.8 7.0 6.5 1.9 1.6 1.4 .2 1.34
.42 Garnett,Kevin Bos 30 .541 20.4 7.1 3.8 5.0 1.2 1.9 .9 1.72
.35 Pierce,Paul Bos 39 .544 17.4 5.6 3.3 3.7 .5 2.3 .7 1.07

.26 Bynum,Andrew LA 27 .575 15.5 9.8 .0 3.7 .0 1.7 2.7 1.17
.23 Davis,Glen Bos 21 .554 18.8 8.6 .8 3.4 1.7 2.1 .4 1.34
.19 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 26 .608 12.6 11.0 1.7 3.9 .4 1.8 .0 .89
.15 Robinson,Nate Bos 11 .632 23.0 3.7 4.6 4.1 .8 .8 .0 1.73
.11 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 19 .525 9.6 8.8 1.7 7.2 1.4 1.4 .9 .66

eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.09 Odom,Lamar LA 26 .566 11.0 8.2 1.3 6.5 .3 1.7 .3 .44
.08 Fisher,Derek LA 34 .474 9.9 4.3 2.7 4.1 .5 1.1 .0 .27
.07 Farmar,Jordan LA 11 .533 14.1 5.4 3.1 2.3 3.1 3.9 .0 .81
.07 Allen,Ray Bos 39 .492 13.2 3.2 1.1 3.1 .2 1.4 .0 .22
.07 Artest,Ron LA 35 .405 7.5 5.7 1.6 3.7 1.0 1.0 .8 .23

.04 Vujacic,Sasha LA 6 .625 8.6 6.8 5.8 1.5 .0 .0 .0 .89
.01 Allen,Tony Bos 17 .457 8.2 3.0 1.5 5.2 2.1 2.1 1.0 .04
.00 Walton,Luke LA 5 1.00 5.7 4.4 3.7 5.7 .0 1.9 1.9 .06
.00 Brown,Shannon LA 15 .515 8.7 2.7 .6 1.8 .0 .0 .6 -.03
Eff% - LA .533, Bos .515
Reb/G : 39.3 - 37.5 , LA
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 4:45 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
After 4 games of the Finals, players' series-by-series stats:
Code:

Celtics:

Allen,Ray
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .140 35 .678 26.9 3.0 3.6 1.0 1.9 .0 1.92 19 31.9
Cle .056 39 .537 15.2 3.6 2.0 .9 1.3 .3 .70 12 19.7
Orl .084 41 .570 15.7 4.6 2.9 .9 1.0 .1 .99 13 23.5
LA .018 39 .492 13.2 3.2 1.1 .2 1.4 .0 .22 8 15.4

Allen,Tony
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .021 17 .525 14.1 3.1 .8 3.1 1.6 1.2 .61 0 20.0
Cle .045 20 .610 16.3 6.0 1.5 2.2 1.9 1.1 1.08 0 23.1
Orl -.007 14 .529 8.0 3.5 2.3 .8 2.8 .8 -.23 0 10.9
LA .001 17 .457 8.2 3.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.0 .04 0 13.4

Davis,Glen
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .058 22 .557 15.9 8.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 .0 1.26 0 25.9
Cle .010 16 .500 13.1 6.7 .6 1.0 2.4 .7 .31 0 16.3
Orl .042 22 .588 13.4 8.3 .2 1.0 1.0 1.0 .90 0 22.5
LA .058 21 .544 18.8 8.6 .8 1.7 2.1 .4 1.34 0 27.6

Garnett,Kevin
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .117 28 .600 20.2 10.2 2.6 1.8 2.1 .5 2.01 0 32.7
Cle .143 34 .551 21.2 9.7 2.1 .5 1.4 .9 2.00 0 31.4
Orl .075 33 .405 10.5 9.9 2.5 1.1 .8 .8 1.11 0 24.6
LA .106 30 .541 20.4 7.1 3.8 1.2 1.9 .9 1.72 0 31.8

Perkins,Kendrick
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .008 28 .468 8.0 11.1 1.6 .3 4.1 2.9 .14 0 15.8
Cle .050 26 .606 10.3 11.0 .8 .2 1.4 3.2 .92 0 21.7
Orl .011 23 .450 7.3 8.2 1.5 1.6 3.5 1.9 .23 0 15.7
LA .048 26 .608 12.6 11.0 1.7 .4 1.8 .0 .89 0 22.4

Pierce,Paul
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .129 39 .576 22.5 6.0 3.1 .6 2.5 .8 1.61 11 29.1
Cle .044 35 .433 13.1 5.6 3.5 1.2 2.6 .2 .61 8 19.0
Orl .203 42 .652 27.0 8.0 3.2 1.3 2.6 .4 2.33 13 37.1
LA .087 39 .544 17.4 5.6 3.3 .5 2.3 .7 1.07 3 24.8

Rondo,Rajon
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .155 42 .493 14.3 6.1 9.0 2.1 2.6 .2 1.78 3 30.7
Cle .208 42 .579 20.9 6.3 9.4 1.6 3.2 .0 2.39 3 34.8
Orl .093 40 .455 13.3 3.5 6.9 1.8 2.4 .0 1.10 1 24.5
LA .108 39 .411 11.8 7.0 6.5 1.6 1.4 .2 1.34 1 27.7

Wallace,Rasheed
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Mia .001 13 .487 9.6 5.4 1.0 .5 .5 .5 .05 0 15.0
Cle .013 17 .597 12.2 5.1 .3 1.3 .6 1.0 .37 5 16.8
Orl .039 16 .574 19.3 5.7 .0 .7 1.0 1.7 1.14 9 24.9
LA .026 19 .525 9.6 8.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 .9 .66 3 20.2


Lakers:

Artest,Ron
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl -.003 37 .395 6.2 3.0 2.4 1.6 .7 .8 -.04 6 14.0
Uta .033 35 .490 11.3 3.6 2.5 1.3 .8 .3 .46 6 18.7
Phx .045 38 .544 12.2 5.0 1.6 1.6 1.1 .3 .56 11 19.9
Bos .017 35 .405 7.5 5.7 1.6 1.0 1.0 .8 .23 4 15.5

Brown,Shannon
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .014 15 .514 14.2 2.9 2.3 1.4 1.8 .4 .43 3 18.3
Uta .010 19 .439 10.8 3.7 1.1 1.8 1.8 .9 .27 3 16.6
Phx .006 13 .413 9.5 3.5 2.4 .9 1.8 1.3 .22 3 15.9
Bos -.001 15 .515 8.7 2.7 .6 .0 .0 .6 -.03 0 12.6

Bryant,Kobe
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .138 37 .498 25.6 4.1 3.9 1.3 3.5 .3 1.81 12 30.7
Uta .187 41 .598 32.1 3.5 4.4 .7 3.6 .7 2.19 3 37.4
Phx .220 42 .631 30.0 7.0 5.6 .7 2.2 1.0 2.53 19 43.3
Bos .192 40 .526 28.6 6.5 4.0 2.0 3.9 .9 2.30 10 38.2

Bynum,Andrew
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .105 30 .576 15.8 11.3 1.1 .4 1.4 2.7 1.70 0 29.7
Uta .074 25 .564 10.8 13.4 1.6 .7 .7 2.6 1.44 0 29.3
Phx .043 18 .614 14.1 13.1 .3 .3 2.0 2.4 1.14 0 26.8
Bos .066 27 .575 15.5 9.8 .0 .0 1.7 2.7 .81 0 25.9

Farmar,Jordan
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .017 14 .559 14.3 4.3 2.8 .8 1.9 .0 .59 5 19.7
Uta -.004 10 .471 9.8 .8 1.3 .8 .8 .0 -.18 4 11.8
Phx .025 15 .700 14.9 3.1 4.8 2.3 2.3 .0 .81 9 22.9
Bos .019 11 .533 14.1 5.4 3.1 3.1 3.9 .0 .81 2 21.9

Fisher,Derek
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .021 32 .570 13.2 2.7 3.5 1.1 2.7 .2 .32 14 17.3
Uta .025 37 .577 11.2 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.5 .0 .32 5 17.2
Phx .025 34 .592 12.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.3 .0 .35 6 17.4
Bos .019 34 .474 9.9 4.3 2.7 .5 1.1 .0 .27 0 15.9

Gasol,Pau
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .183 36 .571 20.8 12.5 3.4 .2 1.9 1.4 2.43 0 36.3
Uta .216 40 .662 25.1 13.9 2.2 .5 2.5 2.5 2.61 0 42.1
Phx .102 41 .596 17.0 7.2 2.5 .1 1.3 1.6 1.20 0 27.5
Bos .172 43 .607 20.1 9.2 2.7 .4 1.9 2.7 1.92 0 34.0

Odom,Lamar
vs eW/G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480 3s T
Okl .043 26 .456 9.4 9.1 2.2 .9 1.3 1.7 .79 4 21.5
Uta .070 28 .603 11.6 12.6 1.8 .0 .9 1.8 1.20 3 26.7
Phx .096 34 .503 12.8 13.7 2.5 1.2 1.5 .5 1.34 2 29.2
Bos .024 26 .566 11.0 8.2 1.3 .3 1.7 .3 .44 1 17.8

Ray hasn't hit a 3 other than that one game.
Fisher hasn't hit one at all (0-7).
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:05 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Bos 3 , LA 2
92.8 - 92.4 : Pyth 2.57 - 2.43 , eWins 2.54 - 2.46
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.06 Bryant,Kobe LA 41 .543 30.5 6.3 3.8 3.7 1.8 3.7 .9 2.49
.81 Gasol,Pau LA 42 .580 18.4 10.2 2.2 2.9 .7 1.7 2.2 1.84
.66 Garnett,Kevin Bos 31 .557 21.3 8.2 3.5 4.7 2.1 2.1 1.2 2.05
.56 Rondo,Rajon Bos 39 .464 13.8 6.7 6.5 1.7 1.5 2.4 .4 1.39
.53 Pierce,Paul Bos 40 .562 19.5 4.8 2.9 3.6 .5 1.8 .9 1.28

.23 Davis,Glen Bos 19 .539 16.2 8.8 1.0 3.6 1.5 1.8 .4 1.16
.22 Bynum,Andrew LA 28 .558 13.2 8.1 .0 3.7 .0 1.6 2.1 .75
.19 Robinson,Nate Bos 10 .609 22.7 3.1 6.1 4.0 .7 1.3 .0 1.78
.19 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 27 .614 11.1 10.7 1.5 4.1 .3 1.9 .0 .67
.17 Odom,Lamar LA 26 .567 11.5 9.4 1.6 5.7 .8 2.2 .3 .63

eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.14 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .542 10.0 9.2 1.4 6.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 .76
.07 Fisher,Derek LA 34 .455 9.5 4.6 2.5 3.9 .6 1.3 .0 .21
.07 Allen,Ray Bos 39 .500 12.9 3.2 1.2 3.4 .4 1.5 .0 .18
.07 Vujacic,Sasha LA 7 .556 11.1 6.1 4.1 2.1 1.0 .0 .0 .99
.06 Farmar,Jordan LA 12 .425 10.0 4.9 2.9 1.8 3.0 3.0 .0 .48

.03 Artest,Ron LA 35 .386 6.9 5.2 1.7 3.8 1.1 1.1 .6 .10
-.01 Brown,Shannon LA 12 .515 8.9 2.7 .6 1.7 .0 .0 .6 -.05
-.01 Allen,Tony Bos 16 .426 8.3 3.0 1.2 5.2 1.7 2.2 1.3 -.04
-.02 Walton,Luke LA 5 1.00 4.5 3.3 4.0 4.1 .0 2.7 1.4 -.32
Can Kobe be mvp if LA doesn't win?
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Manchvegasbob



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:36 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Assuming the C's pull this out . . . it's a definite possibility for Kobe to still win, but I'd like to review the only other time a player from a losing team won the Finals MVP - Jerry West. Just how dominating was West in that series?

Everyone is thinking if Pierce has another effort like last night, the MVP would be his. Otherwise Rondo. But I'm thinking that Garnett now has to be in the conversation according to MikeG's table above . . . he's limited LA's 2nd option (Gasol) to a large extent, that is for sure, and has seemed to have woken up after a slow start in the series.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:33 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Note Pierce, Rondo, and Ray are all playing 39-41 mpg, Garnett just 31.
In eWins/480, it's KG 2.05, Rondo 1.39, Pierce 1.28, Allen 0.18 .
Garnett's been the model of consistency, relative to these others. Both game-to-game and each series. Dip vs Orl.

Still, Kobe's got an advantage of some 60% (eW) over anyone for Bos.
This is a greater advantage perhaps than West in '69.
Code:
Gm West LA Bos WiltFT LA-Bos notes
1 53 120 118 3- 9 1-0 West also had 10 assists
2 41 118 112 2- 4 2-0 Baylor w last 12 LA points
3 24 105 111 4-11 2-1 West/Baylor 1-14 in 4th
4 40 88 89 2-11 2-2 50 turnovers
5 39 117 104 3- 8 3-2 Wilt outrebounds Russ 31-7
6 26 90 99 6-10 3-3 Wilt's FT not to blame!
7 42 106 108 4-13 3-4 Wilt 24-66 FT for the series.

Not many stats survive, but the top scorers were:
PPG
37.9 - West, LA
28.3 - Havlicek, Bos
18.7 - S Jones, Bos
18.0 - Baylor, LA

Giving the MVP to a loser seems to be out of the question. As early as 1974, when Boston beat Milwaukee 4-3, Kareem averaged 33-12-5-2, and he didn't cop.
If eWins had been around then, he'd have had about 58% more than Havlicek or Cowens in that Finals.
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Manchvegasbob



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:40 am Post subject: Good article by Hollinger on the subject on Insider: Reply with quote


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kjb



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 1:26 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
You're a man of few words, Manchvegasbob. Wink

I know Kobe wasn't getting a ton of help from his supporting cast, but wow he takes some horrific shots. And to think Kobe once mocked Arenas's shot selection (after Arenas went for 60 in LA).
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erivera7



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Depending on how Game 6 and possibly Game 7 pan out, if Kobe goes bonkers in one or two games and the Lakers lose, it'd be disappointing from a purely statistical perspective if he didn't win Finals MVP. He's clearly been the best player on the floor, but the Celtics have done an excellent job of bottling up his supporting cast.
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schtevie



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
With a clear intent to promote thread drift, let me begin by congratulating myself on my perspicacity. Prior to the 2007-08 season, I publicly claimed (and perhaps such remarks are conveniently absent from this forum) that the Cs could expect to win 1.75 championships in the KG/Big Three era. Neglecting next year of course, until game time tomorrow, this seems like a remarkable estimate. 0.5 expected championships tomorrow, and 0.25 the day after, and congratulations to Mike Z for these! (Can one hoist 0.75 of a banner in the Garden?)

This aside, I am hoping that this year's Celtics playoff run induces some serious reflection, both in the analytic and journalistic community, about fundamentals and player and team performance value. Though it was an exceptional year in this regard, there was a gross disregard for the capabilities of the Celtics in the playoffs, predicated on the most recent in-season performance, but completely neglecting their fundamental strength. Health (relative, anyway) turned out to be everything (with the possible exception of Rasheed Wallace's on/off switch). That pre-playoff predictions pooh-poohed the Cs chances is understandable - they were old and injured - but the pre-finals prediction bias (and within finals analysis) in favor of the Lakers cannot be redeemed.

The simple fact of the matter is that, when healthy (a big when), the Cs have been the class of the league since this group was formed. Period. No question. But injuries matter. They matter a lot.

And what is the diversionary point?

It might be too much to ask (primarily of the data) but wouldn't it be nice to see estimates of player/team value be expressed two-fold? First in terms of potential (some injury-normed baseline) and second in terms of actual expectation. This is actually very easy from a journalistic standpoint. More difficult from the analytic standpoint....but still.

Go Cs.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:49 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
erivera7 wrote:
Depending on how Game 6 and possibly Game 7 pan out, if Kobe goes bonkers in one or two games and the Lakers lose, it'd be disappointing from a purely statistical perspective if he didn't win Finals MVP. He's clearly been the best player on the floor, but the Celtics have done an excellent job of bottling up his supporting cast.


I'm going to look at that further from a SPM perspective, but I'm inclined to dispute that. I think Rondo has been close to his equal.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:51 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:
It might be too much to ask (primarily of the data) but wouldn't it be nice to see estimates of player/team value be expressed two-fold? First in terms of potential (some injury-normed baseline) and second in terms of actual expectation. This is actually very easy from a journalistic standpoint. More difficult from the analytic standpoint....but still.


That's tough, but is what I attempted to do from a SPM perspective. All I could do, though, was adjust the minutes played according to health. There is no good way to cull out "healthy" data from "unhealthy".

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Kevin Pelton
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:11 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:
The simple fact of the matter is that, when healthy (a big when), the Cs have been the class of the league since this group was formed. Period. No question. But injuries matter. They matter a lot.

I'd love to hear more about these injuries the Celtics suffered in March and April.

I'd also respectfully note it's awfully dangerous to declare "I told you so" when the Lakers still have home-court advantage in the series.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:35 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Is it still called 'home court advantage' when they have to win both games?
If their home odds are 60/40, then the chance of winning both is just 36%.
If they're over 70% at home, they would be favored to win both.

11 of 19 APBRmetrics voters expected it to end tonight :]
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schtevie



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:18 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Kevin Pelton wrote:
schtevie wrote:
The simple fact of the matter is that, when healthy (a big when), the Cs have been the class of the league since this group was formed. Period. No question. But injuries matter. They matter a lot.

I'd love to hear more about these injuries the Celtics suffered in March and April.

I'd also respectfully note it's awfully dangerous to declare "I told you so" when the Lakers still have home-court advantage in the series.


Kevin, I state with brash confidence that, until tip-off today, the Celtics have won (roughly) 0.75 of the title this year.

As for the injury thing, let me be a bit more precise - echoing previous comments made on the same subject. As suggested, it may be a quixotic goal - it being perhaps too much to ask of the data - but it sure would be nice to have estimates of "potential" player (then team) value, reflecting (agreed upon?) norms for aging and expected injuries.

Aging (from late 20s on, say) and injury, of course, are two different, but functionally related, things - differing measures of physical decrepitude. The older you are, all else equal, the more susceptible you are to injury. So, were the Celtics injured in March and April? Yes and no. The players I have in mind, KG and PP, had gotten injured (dinged up) previously, took minor time out from them, but ended up essentially playing through their conditions, with diminished capacity. This was no secret, having been discussed in the media. Similarly, in the championship year, KG had a mid-season groin injury (I think that was it), played some anyway, to clearly diminished capability, sat out some, and came back, never returning to early-season form, I think.

But the larger point is not to reformulate things just to explain the "unanticipated" Celtics' success this post-season. The point is that there are fundamentals and deviations from them. The valuation concepts that are employed should take into account all fundamentals, and injury and aging are decidedly fundamental. Admittedly, it is rarely the case that three future, aging HOFers play on the same team, and that the deviation between the team's potential vs. actual strength is an outlier. But still. The fact of the matter is that between 4 and 8, say, points per 100 possession were borrowed by other players/teams in the league this year, and the Cs took them back in the post-season.

If statistical constructs were improved to recognize such realities/conditionalities, the quality of commentary this post-season would (one can hope) have been much improved.
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BobboFitos



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:43 am Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:


It might be too much to ask (primarily of the data) but wouldn't it be nice to see estimates of player/team value be expressed two-fold? First in terms of potential (some injury-normed baseline) and second in terms of actual expectation. This is actually very easy from a journalistic standpoint. More difficult from the analytic standpoint....but still.

Go Cs.


Well said. Almost something to be said of a "championship caliber team" vs simply "maxed out potential". (As in, people refer to a team's ceiling as "only good enough to make it out of 1 round" etc.)
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:48 am Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:
... between 4 and 8, say, points per 100 possession were borrowed by other players/teams in the league this year, and the Cs took them back in the post-season.

If statistical constructs were improved to recognize such realities/conditionalities, the quality of commentary this post-season would (one can hope) have been much improved.


Commenters have since the beginning of time felt free to say stuff like, "If the Big 3 are past their infirmities and can return in the playoffs to a semblance of their former selves, then the Celtics are formidable, perhaps unbeatable.

The if/then in the comment is only proven as time passes. Any or all injuries can return at any moment. You may recall that as the 2007-08 season commenced, and the Celts were steamrolling competition, the huge minutes being played by The3 were called into scrutiny.

By necessity and experience, their minutes have been reduced. It took most of 3 years to comprehend, but Doc Rivers appears to have played his cards right in year 3.

Statistics won't ever predict the return of injuries. First hand knowledge of each case will always be more relevant. Every year, someone will emerge from the East (and the West), and in general they will have made good decisions and had good luck. Hard to say which is more important.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 10:47 am Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:
Kevin, I state with brash confidence that, until tip-off today, the Celtics have won (roughly) 0.75 of the title this year.

Only if you assume the two teams are of equal quality in L.A. Granted, the Celtics are 2-1 against the Lakers there this season ... .

Quote:
So, were the Celtics injured in March and April? Yes and no. The players I have in mind, KG and PP, had gotten injured (dinged up) previously, took minor time out from them, but ended up essentially playing through their conditions, with diminished capacity. This was no secret, having been discussed in the media.

Of course, and I'm being facetious. (I also find the "injury card" the media keeps playing to be an annoying oversimplification.)

The question here is what should have told us in mid-April that those nagging injuries would suddenly cease to be an issue come the postseason? Now obviously, the motivation is higher and there is more time off, which works to their advantage. However, you could have made the same arguments about San Antonio in mid-April, right? You can't turn one team's run into some grand overarching theory unless it also applies to other teams. If it doesn't, then Boston is simply a glorious outlier.
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erivera7



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:20 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:
I'm going to look at that further from a SPM perspective, but I'm inclined to dispute that. I think Rondo has been close to his equal.

Would you mind crunching the SPM numbers? I'd like to see them.

Thanks!
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mikez



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:27 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
schtevie wrote:
Kevin, I state with brash confidence that, until tip-off today, the Celtics have won (roughly) 0.75 of the title this year.


I wish we could hang fractional banners! We would have one from the start of last year! Smile (Or would we have been required to slowly cut it down, piece by piece, as the year progressed?)

Hopefully we won't have to settle for one of those this year.

Go Celts!

-MZ
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:38 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
erivera7 wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:
I'm going to look at that further from a SPM perspective, but I'm inclined to dispute that. I think Rondo has been close to his equal.

Would you mind crunching the SPM numbers? I'd like to see them.

Thanks!


The first 3 games are earlier in this thread. When I get a chance I'll do the last 2.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:11 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Here are the SPM analyses of games 4 and 5:
Code:
Game 4
Boston Celtics Adjust -0.57
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Ray Allen -1.19 0.19 -0.79 -1.24 -0.43 0.97 1.06 -2.01 86.4% -1.73
Paul Pierce -0.52 0.43 1.94 -0.90 -0.43 -0.82 0.47 -0.40 75.6% -0.30
Rajon Rondo 0.33 -0.15 0.82 5.66 -0.43 -6.41 -0.07 -0.82 65.5% -0.54
Kevin Garnett 1.49 0.10 1.33 3.76 1.15 -2.90 -0.63 3.73 55.2% 2.06
Kendrick Perkins 1.70 0.76 -1.28 -3.66 -0.43 2.85 -0.84 -1.47 51.4% -0.76
Reserves
Glen Davis 3.02 -0.84 -1.28 4.97 -0.43 14.22 -1.09 18.02 46.8% 8.44
Rasheed Wallace -1.19 -0.19 -1.28 0.83 -0.43 -4.52 -1.17 -8.52 45.3% -3.86
Tony Allen 1.39 -0.70 -0.25 1.69 1.81 -6.81 -1.54 -4.99 38.4% -1.92
Nate Robinson 0.22 -0.64 1.72 2.21 -0.43 7.15 -1.72 7.94 35.1% 2.79
Marquis Daniels -1.19 -1.44 -1.28 -3.66 -0.43 0.17 -3.62 -12.00 0.2% -0.03

LA Lakers Adjust 0.57
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Pau Gasol -0.65 0.10 0.16 -3.66 1.46 0.62 1.37 -0.04 92.0% -0.03
Kobe Bryant -1.19 0.45 -0.12 0.83 -0.43 1.38 1.24 2.73 89.7% 2.45
Ron Artest 1.07 -0.47 0.15 -3.66 0.54 0.01 1.11 -0.68 87.3% -0.59
Derek Fisher -1.19 -0.99 0.03 -0.55 -0.43 -0.98 -0.18 -3.72 63.6% -2.37
Andrew Bynum -1.19 1.90 -1.28 -3.66 -0.43 -3.18 -2.25 -9.52 25.3% -2.41
Reserves
Lamar Odom -0.58 0.64 -0.74 -1.24 -0.43 -0.22 0.79 -1.22 81.4% -1.00
Shannon Brown -1.19 -1.44 -1.28 -3.66 -0.43 1.01 -2.35 -8.76 23.6% -2.07
Jordan Farmar -1.19 1.07 0.57 14.46 -0.43 -0.46 -2.41 12.18 22.5% 2.74
Sasha Vujacic 5.59 -1.44 1.21 -3.66 -0.43 -4.97 -2.84 -5.96 14.6% -0.87


Code:
Game 5
Boston Celtics Adjust -0.55
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Paul Pierce -1.91 -0.50 -0.29 -1.11 1.07 9.02 1.14 6.87 88.9% 6.11
Ray Allen -1.91 -0.22 -0.49 -1.11 -0.60 0.40 0.86 -3.62 83.7% -3.03
Rajon Rondo -0.87 0.09 3.25 -0.94 0.33 -2.41 0.66 -0.46 80.0% -0.37
Kevin Garnett -0.81 1.56 0.24 10.27 1.38 2.61 0.40 15.10 75.3% 11.38
Kendrick Perkins 3.13 -0.01 -0.88 -3.53 -0.60 -1.38 -0.11 -3.93 65.9% -2.59
Reserves
Rasheed Wallace -1.91 1.78 -1.43 -3.53 1.82 5.21 -2.02 -0.63 30.7% -0.19
Tony Allen -1.91 -0.20 -1.43 -3.53 2.13 -7.97 -2.20 -15.66 27.4% -4.29
Glen Davis 1.12 0.57 -0.21 -3.53 -0.60 -2.57 -2.20 -7.97 27.4% -2.18
Nate Robinson -1.91 -0.97 7.16 -3.53 -0.60 -3.00 -2.56 -5.96 20.7% -1.23

LA Lakers Adjust 0.55
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Kobe Bryant -0.08 -0.28 0.86 -1.29 0.24 6.46 1.28 7.74 91.4% 7.08
Pau Gasol 5.41 0.36 -1.43 1.65 -0.60 -0.60 0.62 5.97 79.3% 4.73
Ron Artest -0.75 -0.68 -0.42 -0.60 -0.60 -4.34 0.19 -6.64 71.4% -4.74
Derek Fisher 0.41 -0.38 -0.42 -0.60 -0.60 -3.81 0.18 -4.65 71.3% -3.31
Andrew Bynum -0.64 -0.97 -1.43 -3.53 -0.60 -0.75 -0.11 -7.48 65.9% -4.93
Reserves
Lamar Odom 2.63 0.96 0.08 4.06 -0.60 -2.92 -0.71 4.06 54.8% 2.22
Jordan Farmar -1.91 -0.24 -0.26 3.72 -0.60 -10.60 -2.13 -11.46 28.7% -3.29
Sasha Vujacic -1.91 0.00 -1.43 6.13 -0.60 3.27 -2.51 3.51 21.6% 0.76
Luke Walton -1.91 -0.97 0.82 -3.53 -0.60 -5.18 -2.87 -13.70 15.0% -2.05
Shannon Brown -1.91 -0.97 -1.43 -3.53 -0.60 0.51 -3.65 -11.02 0.7% -0.07


KG's 5 steals (8% steal rate) really skew the SPM totals a bit. This SPM, like most, overvalues steals as a sort of proxy for defensive play in the game.

Big Baby really did dominate in game 4!
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:40 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
DSM, can you refresh us as to what the 'Adjust' number is?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:41 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
erivera7 wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:
I'm going to look at that further from a SPM perspective, but I'm inclined to dispute that. I think Rondo has been close to his equal.

Would you mind crunching the SPM numbers? I'd like to see them.

Thanks!


Here are the totals so far, in terms of points added (total) and the minutes and average SPM totals:
Code:
Starters Total Contrib %Min SPM
Pau Gasol 26.3 87% 6.0
Kobe Bryant 22.2 85% 5.2
Kevin Garnett 20.5 64% 6.4
Rajon Rondo 8.1 81% 2.0
Paul Pierce 5.4 83% 1.3
Glen Davis 1.5 40% 0.7
Nate Robinson 1.3 21% 1.2
Marquis Daniels 0.0 0% -15.0
Sasha Vujacic -0.1 14% -0.1
Michael Finley -0.5 1% -11.8
Rasheed Wallace -1.4 38% -0.7
Shelden Williams -2.9 2% -33.2
Lamar Odom -3.2 54% -1.2
Luke Walton -3.2 11% -6.0
Jordan Farmar -4.2 24% -3.5
Kendrick Perkins -4.5 56% -1.6
Andrew Bynum -5.0 58% -1.7
Shannon Brown -7.6 25% -6.1
Tony Allen -8.0 34% -4.8
Ron Artest -12.5 72% -3.5
Derek Fisher -13.5 70% -3.9
Ray Allen -18.7 81% -4.6


Gasol has been really good in his best games and hasn't hurt the team in his lesser games. Garnett is surprising--most of that total came from game 5's +11.4 performance, though again that is inflated a bit by steals.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:41 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
DSM, can you refresh us as to what the 'Adjust' number is?


Just enforcing that the team totals add up to the efficiency differential in the game.
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Ed Küpfer



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:47 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
mikez wrote:

I wish we could hang fractional banners! We would have one from the start of last year! Smile


That would be awesome. If the fractions were calculated from the beginning of the playoffs, I think the Raptors would almost have half a complete banner by now.

mikez wrote:

Hopefully we won't have to settle for one of those this year.


I think you'll be able to settle for a different title this year.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 8:03 am Post subject: Reply with quote
LA 3 , Bos 3
Avg score 91.8 - 88.5 (LA) : Pyth 3.72 - 2.28 , eWins 3.36 - 2.64
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.44 Bryant,Kobe LA 41 .548 31.5 7.0 3.8 3.4 2.1 3.4 .7 2.83
1.13 Gasol,Pau LA 42 .566 19.0 10.5 3.3 2.8 .7 1.7 2.3 2.17
.75 Garnett,Kevin Bos 31 .536 19.9 7.9 3.5 4.6 2.0 1.8 1.0 1.94
.62 Rondo,Rajon Bos 38 .438 13.0 6.4 6.4 1.6 1.6 2.6 .3 1.31
.56 Pierce,Paul Bos 39 .548 19.0 4.7 2.7 3.3 .6 2.4 .8 1.15

.25 Bynum,Andrew LA 26 .532 12.6 8.1 .0 3.5 .2 1.4 2.1 .77
.24 Odom,Lamar LA 26 .529 11.1 9.8 1.6 5.0 .9 2.0 .7 .74
.21 Davis,Glen Bos 21 .488 11.3 9.1 .8 3.6 1.4 1.4 .8 .81
.20 Robinson,Nate Bos 11 .540 18.6 4.2 5.7 2.9 .5 1.9 .0 1.40
.17 Allen,Ray Bos 38 .520 14.3 3.0 1.5 3.2 .3 1.3 .0 .35

.15 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 24 .593 10.5 10.0 1.4 4.1 .3 2.1 .0 .51
.11 Vujacic,Sasha LA 8 .594 15.3 4.6 3.4 2.0 1.3 .7 .0 1.15
.11 Artest,Ron LA 34 .439 9.1 5.5 1.5 3.8 .9 1.3 .7 .26
.09 Fisher,Derek LA 31 .476 10.4 4.6 2.4 4.4 1.0 1.8 .0 .23
.06 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 18 .419 6.8 8.1 1.1 6.1 .9 .9 .9 .25

.05 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .404 9.0 4.0 2.6 1.3 3.5 3.0 .0 .33
-.01 Brown,Shannon LA 13 .512 8.3 2.8 1.3 1.7 .0 .0 .4 -.05
-.01 Allen,Tony Bos 16 .400 6.8 2.6 .9 5.1 2.4 1.7 1.7 -.07

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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 8:05 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Game 6 Beta SPM evaluation:
Code:
Boston Celtics Adjust 0.97
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Ray Allen 0.15 -1.58 0.61 -4.16 -0.88 9.27 1.02 5.40 75.1% 4.06
Paul Pierce -0.37 -0.60 -0.34 -1.40 -0.88 -3.81 0.82 -5.61 71.4% -4.01
Rajon Rondo -0.35 -0.23 3.36 1.54 -0.88 -6.46 0.70 -1.36 69.1% -0.94
Kevin Garnett -0.93 0.58 1.07 -1.05 -0.88 2.39 0.45 2.61 64.6% 1.68
Kendrick Perkins -0.93 0.14 -2.26 -4.16 -0.88 -8.62 -2.32 -18.06 13.5% -2.45
Reserves
Glen Davis 1.95 0.48 -2.26 -0.71 1.72 -2.53 0.00 -0.37 56.3% -0.21
Rasheed Wallace -0.93 0.35 -2.26 -4.16 -0.88 -12.18 -1.09 -20.18 36.2% -7.30
Tony Allen 0.19 -1.58 -2.26 12.41 3.17 -0.91 -1.10 10.89 36.0% 3.92
Nate Robinson 0.31 0.56 3.40 -4.16 -0.88 -7.18 -1.29 -8.26 32.6% -2.69
Shelden Williams -0.93 0.79 -2.26 -4.16 -0.88 -5.14 -1.46 -13.06 29.4% -3.84
Marquis Daniels 3.67 -1.58 -2.26 -4.16 -0.88 12.48 -2.58 5.67 8.8% 0.50
Michael Finley -0.93 -1.58 -2.26 -4.16 -0.88 -8.31 -2.68 -19.82 7.0% -1.38

LA Lakers Adjust -0.97
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Pau Gasol 1.43 0.58 4.42 -1.91 1.67 2.69 1.62 9.52 86.0% 8.19
Kobe Bryant 0.54 0.67 0.60 5.51 -0.88 7.07 1.43 13.97 82.5% 11.53
Ron Artest -0.93 0.50 -2.26 -4.16 0.22 6.22 0.57 -0.81 66.8% -0.54
Andrew Bynum 2.76 -0.87 -2.26 1.88 1.32 -1.25 -1.26 -0.65 33.1% -0.22
Derek Fisher -0.93 -0.12 -2.26 8.27 -0.88 -4.29 -1.32 -2.51 31.9% -0.80
Reserves
Lamar Odom -0.25 1.96 -1.27 -0.88 1.59 0.05 0.16 0.38 59.2% 0.23
Shannon Brown -0.93 -0.43 0.63 -4.16 -0.88 3.84 -0.86 -3.76 40.4% -1.52
Jordan Farmar -0.93 -0.94 -0.62 12.24 -0.88 -5.71 -1.08 1.10 36.4% 0.40
Sasha Vujacic -0.93 -0.80 0.24 2.40 -0.88 7.52 -1.43 5.14 29.9% 1.54
Josh Powell -0.93 -0.13 -2.26 -4.16 -0.88 -6.88 -2.19 -18.40 16.0% -2.95
Luke Walton -0.93 -1.58 -2.26 -4.16 5.24 -10.12 -2.40 -17.20 12.0% -2.07
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -0.93 2.55 -2.26 -4.16 -0.88 -11.00 -2.75 -20.39 5.6% -1.15

And here are the 6 Game Series Totals:
Code:
Player Contrib %Min SPM
Pau Gasol 34.49 86.8% 6.62
Kobe Bryant 33.73 84.6% 6.65
Kevin Garnett 22.18 64.1% 5.77
Rajon Rondo 7.16 79.0% 1.51
Sasha Vujacic 1.44 16.6% 1.44
Paul Pierce 1.39 81.1% 0.29
Glen Davis 1.29 42.7% 0.50
Marquis Daniels 0.50 1.5% 5.67
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -1.15 0.9% -20.39
Nate Robinson -1.39 22.9% -1.01
Michael Finley -1.88 2.0% -15.72
Josh Powell -2.95 2.7% -18.40
Lamar Odom -2.97 54.9% -0.90
Jordan Farmar -3.80 26.1% -2.43
Tony Allen -4.08 34.3% -1.98
Andrew Bynum -5.22 53.8% -1.61
Luke Walton -5.27 11.2% -7.86
Shelden Williams -6.74 6.6% -17.11
Kendrick Perkins -6.95 48.9% -2.37
Rasheed Wallace -8.70 37.7% -3.85
Shannon Brown -9.12 27.6% -5.51
Ron Artest -13.04 71.1% -3.06
Derek Fisher -14.30 63.7% -3.74
Ray Allen -14.64 80.0% -3.05


It's amazing how much Pau and Kobe have separated themselves from the rest of their team. Nobody else is above average for the series (well, except Sasha Vujacic, and he doesn't count, does he?). And the Lakers have 3 of the 4 most negative major contributors in the series. Wow. It shows how shallow they are!
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 8:18 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Perhaps a better way of looking at who helped the most would be a rough VORP calculation. I used a Replacement level of -3 SPM, which looks about right for this series. Obviously, the VORP concept is fuzzy in basketball; this is just to get a rough feel for the contributors. It pushes the guys who did nicely but in only a couple of minutes down to the bottom of the list.

Code:
Player Contrib %Min SPM VORP
Pau Gasol 34.49 86.80% 6.62 8.35
Kobe Bryant 33.73 84.60% 6.65 8.16
Kevin Garnett 22.18 64.10% 5.77 5.62
Rajon Rondo 7.16 79.00% 1.51 3.56
Paul Pierce 1.39 81.10% 0.29 2.67
Glen Davis 1.29 42.70% 0.50 1.49
Lamar Odom -2.97 54.90% -0.90 1.15
Andrew Bynum -5.22 53.80% -1.61 0.75
Sasha Vujacic 1.44 16.60% 1.44 0.74
Nate Robinson -1.39 22.90% -1.01 0.46
Tony Allen -4.08 34.30% -1.98 0.35
Kendrick Perkins -6.95 48.90% -2.37 0.31
Jordan Farmar -3.80 26.10% -2.43 0.15
Marquis Daniels 0.50 1.50% 5.67 0.13
Ray Allen -14.64 80.00% -3.05 -0.04
Ron Artest -13.04 71.10% -3.06 -0.04
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -1.15 0.90% -20.39 -0.16
Michael Finley -1.88 2.00% -15.72 -0.25
Rasheed Wallace -8.70 37.70% -3.85 -0.32
Josh Powell -2.95 2.70% -18.40 -0.42
Derek Fisher -14.30 63.70% -3.74 -0.47
Luke Walton -5.27 11.20% -7.86 -0.54
Shannon Brown -9.12 27.60% -5.51 -0.69
Shelden Williams -6.74 6.60% -17.11 -0.93
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 8:30 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Deducing the Game 6 team total eWins, simply by subtracting what I posted after G5; also the difference from G5 to G6 in Pythagorean.
Code:
Games 1-6 Games 1-5 Game 6
tm eW PW eW PW eW PW
LA 3.36 3.72 2.46 2.43 .90 1.29
Bos 2.64 2.28 2.54 2.57 .10 -.29


Boston scored 67/(67+89) = 43% of the points, resulting in 10% of the eWins allotment.
If the worst possible NBA beatdown is a 2/1 scoring margin, then an absolute zero in competitiveness = .333 of the points scored.
The Celts .43 is .097 better than that. Same as their eWins for the game.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 8:42 am Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:
Perhaps a better way of looking at who helped the most would be a rough VORP calculation. I used a Replacement level of -3 SPM, which looks about right for this series...

Yes, it looks a lot more like mine now
If -3 SPM is about right in the regular season, shouldn't a battle between the 2 best teams accept value at a lower level?
Like -4 or even lower?

I've got Ray, Rasheed, Fisher, and Artest all at .23 to .35 of average value, and I think that is harsh.
(Could be said: they're 23% to 35% better than replacement level.)
This SPM+3 has them making negative contributions for 6 games.
How is the average fan supposed to interpret that?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 12:01 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:
Perhaps a better way of looking at who helped the most would be a rough VORP calculation. I used a Replacement level of -3 SPM, which looks about right for this series...

Yes, it looks a lot more like mine now Smile
If -3 SPM is about right in the regular season, shouldn't a battle between the 2 best teams accept value at a lower level?
Like -4 or even lower?

I've got Ray, Rasheed, Fisher, and Artest all at .23 to .35 of average value, and I think that is harsh.
(Could be said: they're 23% to 35% better than replacement level.)
This SPM+3 has them making negative contributions for 6 games.
How is the average fan supposed to interpret that?


That they made negative contributions over 6 games. I think most average fans would accept that!

Be aware: the -3 SPM is relative to the environment these were calculated in, which is the Laker/Celtics finals. A -3 level in this context is still above LEAGUE replacement level. If these teams average a +10 efficiency differential, then a -3 player in this series would be a -1 player in the league at large. So VORP in a LEAGUE context would be looking at a -5 player in this series as the replacement level.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 12:49 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
But a "Replacement level of -3 SPM, which looks about right for this series"
is suggesting only 7 of 10 starters are contributing positively. Phil might replace Fisher and Artest, with Vujacic and Odom, but he then has no bench that contributes anything positive. Replace Ray with Nate or Tony?

If our stats are already insufficient to quantify the contributions in denying the opponent from scoring, then it seems we compound the misery by saying these guys' minutes are entirely replaceable; or that just not playing them at all would yield better results.

It doesn't seem possible that only 5 Lakers are contributing, except in the negative. I realize the numbers say this to you, but I don't think there's a person in the franchise or the fanbase who could find this believable.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 1:43 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
But a "Replacement level of -3 SPM, which looks about right for this series"
is suggesting only 7 of 10 starters are contributing positively. Phil might replace Fisher and Artest, with Vujacic and Odom, but he then has no bench that contributes anything positive. Replace Ray with Nate or Tony?

If our stats are already insufficient to quantify the contributions in denying the opponent from scoring, then it seems we compound the misery by saying these guys' minutes are entirely replaceable; or that just not playing them at all would yield better results.

It doesn't seem possible that only 5 Lakers are contributing, except in the negative. I realize the numbers say this to you, but I don't think there's a person in the franchise or the fanbase who could find this believable.


On the contrary, I think a lot of fans would agree with that!

That said, maybe -3 isn't right for a small sample size, where the scatter is bigger?
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2010 8:24 am Post subject: Reply with quote
LA 4 , Bos 3
Avg score 90.6 - 87.1
Pythagorean wins 4.38 - 2.62
eWins 3.94 - 3.06
Code:
eW per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.60 Bryant,Kobe LA 41 .518 29.3 8.1 3.6 3.4 1.9 3.4 .6 2.65
1.37 Gasol,Pau LA 42 .539 18.7 11.5 3.4 2.6 .6 1.6 2.2 2.25
.85 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .549 20.0 6.7 3.2 4.6 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.83
.75 Rondo,Rajon Bos 39 .446 13.2 6.2 6.7 1.6 1.5 2.6 .3 1.32
.66 Pierce,Paul Bos 40 .541 18.5 5.1 2.6 3.3 .7 2.4 .8 1.13

.29 Odom,Lamar LA 27 .505 10.4 9.5 1.7 4.2 .7 1.8 .7 .71
.25 Davis,Glen Bos 21 .500 11.6 9.6 .7 4.0 1.4 1.7 .7 .84
.25 Bynum,Andrew LA 25 .500 11.3 8.7 .0 3.6 .2 1.3 1.9 .69
.23 Artest,Ron LA 36 .451 10.8 5.3 1.4 3.5 1.5 1.6 .6 .43
.19 Robinson,Nate Bos 10 .523 17.7 3.8 5.5 2.7 .5 1.8 .0 1.27

.16 Allen,Ray Bos 39 .498 13.8 2.6 1.5 3.1 .7 1.6 .0 .29
.16 Fisher,Derek LA 31 .513 11.3 4.1 2.5 4.3 1.0 1.5 .0 .35
.14 Perkins,Kendrick Bos 20 .593 10.6 9.5 1.5 4.1 .3 2.1 .0 .48
.13 Wallace,Rasheed Bos 21 .440 7.9 8.0 1.3 6.2 .7 .7 1.2 .44
.12 Vujacic,Sasha LA 7 .553 15.0 5.0 3.3 3.1 1.2 .6 .0 1.11

.01 Farmar,Jordan LA 13 .362 7.6 3.5 2.4 1.9 3.0 3.0 .0 .03
-.02 Brown,Shannon LA 12 .488 7.8 2.7 1.2 2.0 .0 .0 .4 -.11
-.02 Allen,Tony Bos 15 .400 6.7 2.4 .9 5.2 2.3 1.6 1.6 -.10
-.04 Walton,Luke LA 4 .333 1.9 2.4 3.3 3.1 .0 2.1 2.1 -.55
-.07 Williams,Shelden Bos 3 .000 .0 7.6 .0 7.3 .0 7.3 .0 -1.86

LA won the boards by 4.5 per game.
Shooting dropped to .502 - .500 , Bos.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2010 9:14 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Game 7 Beta SPM:

Code:
Boston Celtics Adjust -1.32
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Paul Pierce -1.11 0.55 -0.53 -0.47 0.05 1.12 0.93 -0.78 95.0% -0.74
Ray Allen -1.69 -0.69 -0.62 3.85 -0.70 -4.09 0.90 -4.37 94.3% -4.12
Rajon Rondo 0.65 -0.32 4.65 -0.47 -0.70 0.37 0.85 3.70 93.5% 3.46
Kevin Garnett -1.69 -0.41 0.06 -2.71 2.82 5.45 0.09 2.28 79.4% 1.81
Rasheed Wallace -0.22 0.32 -0.10 -2.71 1.19 4.12 -0.20 1.08 74.2% 0.80
Reserves
Glen Davis -0.43 2.07 -1.73 2.12 -0.70 0.30 -1.87 -1.55 43.4% -0.67
Tony Allen -1.69 -1.05 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 2.36 -3.62 -10.46 11.1% -1.16
Nate Robinson -1.69 -1.05 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 -9.19 -3.82 -22.22 7.4% -1.64
Brian Scalabrine -1.69 -1.05 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 2.36 -4.13 -10.97 1.7% -0.19

LA Lakers Adjust 1.32
Starters ORB DRB AST STL BLK Sco/TO MPG SPM %Min Contrib
Ron Artest 0.01 -0.70 -1.08 8.16 -0.70 -0.34 0.98 7.66 95.9% 7.34
Kobe Bryant 0.65 0.94 -0.45 -0.47 -0.70 -6.45 0.85 -4.30 93.4% -4.02
Pau Gasol 3.88 0.68 1.03 -2.71 0.88 0.95 0.55 6.59 87.9% 5.79
Derek Fisher -1.69 -0.78 0.14 0.57 -0.70 9.60 -0.78 7.68 63.4% 4.87
Andrew Bynum 3.95 -0.17 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 -3.67 -2.13 -5.84 38.6% -2.26
Reserves
Lamar Odom 0.59 -0.11 -0.22 -2.71 0.27 -0.28 -0.32 -1.46 71.9% -1.05
Jordan Farmar -1.69 -1.05 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 -10.54 -2.78 -19.88 26.5% -5.27
Shannon Brown -1.69 -1.05 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 -5.24 -3.61 -15.41 11.3% -1.74
Sasha Vujacic -1.69 0.68 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 -2.93 -3.69 -11.45 9.8% -1.12
Josh Powell -1.69 -1.05 -1.73 -2.71 -0.70 2.36 -4.16 -8.36 1.2% -0.10


Artest, Gasol, and Fisher won the game last night for the Lakers. The shooting guard position lost it for the Celtics.

Totals for the series:
Code:
Player Contrib %Min SPM VORP
Pau Gasol 40.29 87.0% 7.72 9.32
Kobe Bryant 29.71 85.9% 5.77 7.53
Kevin Garnett 24.00 66.3% 6.03 5.99
Rajon Rondo 10.62 81.1% 2.18 4.20
Paul Pierce 0.65 83.1% 0.13 2.60
Glen Davis 0.62 42.8% 0.24 1.39
Ron Artest -5.70 74.7% -1.27 1.29
Lamar Odom -4.03 57.3% -1.17 1.05
Sasha Vujacic 0.32 15.7% 0.34 0.52
Derek Fisher -9.43 63.6% -2.47 0.34
Andrew Bynum -7.47 51.7% -2.41 0.30
Marquis Daniels 0.50 1.3% 6.61 0.12
Nate Robinson -3.03 20.7% -2.44 0.12
Kendrick Perkins -6.95 41.9% -2.76 0.10
Tony Allen -5.24 31.0% -2.81 0.06
Rasheed Wallace -7.90 42.9% -3.07 -0.03
Didier Ilunga-Mbenga -1.15 0.8% -23.79 -0.17
Michael Finley -1.88 1.7% -18.34 -0.26
Josh Powell -3.04 2.5% -20.66 -0.43
Luke Walton -5.27 9.6% -9.17 -0.59
Ray Allen -18.76 82.1% -3.81 -0.67
Jordan Farmar -9.07 26.1% -5.79 -0.73
Shelden Williams -6.74 5.6% -19.96 -0.95
Shannon Brown -10.86 25.2% -7.17 -1.05


Gasol is the clear MVP from an SPM perspective.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 18, 2010 10:25 am Post subject: Reply with quote
B-R.com's Win Shares seems to concur.
It happens that I kept a copy of the numbers at the end of the conference finals. Subtracting those from the current (final) ones:
Code:
playoff totals thru conf finals Finals
Lakers Min WS WS/48 Min WS WS/48 Min WS WS/48
Kobe 923 3.65 .190 634 2.51 .190 289 1.14 .190
Gasol 913 4.26 .224 620 2.74 .212 293 1.52 .249

Now, if b-r.com would drop the leading zero in WS/48 and add another decimal place to the WS column (as seen here), we'd have more info in the same space.
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