2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2

[Mike G]

Grizzlies 1 , Thunder 0
score 114 - 101
Pythagorean Wins .83 - .17
eWins .67 - .33

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.23   Randolph,Zach   Mem   38   .642   37.5   9.9   1.9   2.9   2.9   1.0   .0   2.94
.21   Gasol,Marc      Mem   35   .769   27.0  13.9   4.2   3.1   1.0    .0  3.1   2.93
.18   Durant,Kevin    Okl   44   .623   27.7   9.1   2.4   1.7    .8   2.5  1.7   2.01
.11  Westbrook,Russel Okl   38   .500   25.6   7.7   6.0   4.8   1.0   6.7   .0   1.41
.10   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   37   .533   12.5  10.9   1.0   5.0    .0   1.0  5.0   1.25

.08   Conley,Mike     Mem   39   .469   12.4   1.0   7.0   4.7   1.9    .0   .9    .97
.06   Battier,Shane   Mem   28   .550   13.1   6.3   1.3   1.2   2.5   1.2  2.5   1.02
.04   Allen,Tony      Mem   23   .500   17.9   6.6   1.7   8.0   1.6   1.6   .0    .90
.03   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   19   .375    7.6   5.4   3.8   3.5   1.8    .0  1.8    .72
.03   Vasquez,Greivis Mem    9   .667   19.3   3.6  11.2   7.1    .0   3.5   .0   1.35

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.01   Maynor,Eric     Okl   10   .300    6.3   3.2   9.9   3.2   6.4   6.4   .0    .70
.01   Collison,Nick   Okl   15   .625    9.5   4.4    .0   6.6   2.2    .0   .0    .20
.00   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   24   .400    6.9   7.2   1.5   1.4   1.4   4.3   .0   -.08
-.01  Cook,Daequan    Okl   10   .500    6.6   3.2    .0   3.2    .0    .0   .0   -.28
-.01  Mohammed,Nazr   Okl    8   .000     .0   0.0    .0    .0    .0    .0  4.0   -.52

-.01  Young,Sam       Mem   25   .429    6.0   4.5    .0   1.5    .0    .0   .0   -.20
-.01  Harden,James    Okl   24   .500    5.9   2.8   2.9   7.1   1.4   2.8   .0   -.29
-.02  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   25  1.000    9.6   0.0    .0   1.5    .0   1.5   .0   -.43
-.03 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   29   .333    1.5   7.6   1.3   2.5    .0   2.5   .0   -.48

[Mike G]

Mavs 1 , Lakers 0
score 96 - 94
Pythagorean .57 - .43
eWins .53 - .47

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk   e480
.20   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   38   .571   29.0  13.6   3.2   1.0   1.9   1.0   1.0   2.54
.15   Bryant,Kobe      LA   35   .571   39.9   5.7    .0   2.1   1.0   3.1   1.0   2.11
.11   Gasol,Pau        LA   36   .577   16.8  12.1   6.8   3.1    .0   3.1   1.0   1.46
.10   Odom,Lamar       LA   31   .600   18.2  14.6   2.1   1.1    .0   1.1   1.1   1.54
.09   Kidd,Jason      Dal   34   .700    9.8   5.5  13.2   2.2   3.2   5.4   1.1   1.22

.08   Terry,Jason     Dal   30   .682   21.0   3.5   5.1   2.3   1.2   1.2   1.2   1.35
.07   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   35   .611   11.7   9.6   1.2   2.1    .0    .0   3.1    .95
.07   Barea,Jose Juan Dal   14   .667   23.9   4.9  13.6   2.4    .0    .0    .0   2.31
.06   Fisher,Derek     LA   31   .615   10.5   1.3   7.0   3.6   2.4    .0   1.2    .86
.04   Marion,Shawn    Dal   34   .385    9.3   4.4   5.3   1.1   1.1   2.2   1.1    .50

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk   e480
.03   Brewer,Corey    Dal    8   .625   23.5   4.2   4.7   8.3   4.1    .0    .0   1.74
.02   Bynum,Andrew     LA   29   .444    8.5   6.9   1.3   1.3    .0    .0   1.3    .37
.02   Artest,Ron       LA   31   .125    1.0   3.9   5.1    .0   3.6   1.2   1.2    .26
.01   Barnes,Matt      LA   16   .333    6.4  11.4   2.2   4.2    .0   2.1   2.1    .44
.01   Brown,Shannon    LA   14   .462   14.0   2.6    .0    .0   4.8   4.8   2.4    .48

.01   Stojakovic,Peja Dal   24   .625   14.7   2.9    .0   1.4    .0    .0    .0    .27
-.01  Haywood,Brendan Dal   13  1.000    7.0   0.0    .0  10.3    .0    .0   2.6   -.35
-.02  Blake,Steve      LA   17   .000     .0   2.2    .0    .0   2.0    .0    .0   -.58
-.03 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   10   .000     .0   0.0   4.5   3.8    .0   7.6    .0  -1.38

Mavs shot .568, to .500 for LA.
Lakers won the boards, 44-40.

[Mike G]

Grizzlies 1 , Thunder 1
avg score Mem 108 - 106 Okl
Pythagorean 1.12 - .88
eWins 1.06 - .94

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.33   Gasol,Marc      Mem   36   .635   18.3  13.0   3.6   3.0   1.5   1.0  4.0   2.18
.29   Durant,Kevin    Okl   39   .596   28.2   8.2   2.2   3.3    .5   2.3   .9   1.81
.28   Randolph,Zach   Mem   39   .538   22.4  10.0   2.4   3.3   1.4   1.4   .9   1.74
.27  Westbrook,Russel Okl   36   .510   26.9   5.6   7.8   3.1   2.1   5.7   .0   1.82
.21   Conley,Mike     Mem   40   .619   19.4   1.5   7.1   3.2   1.4   1.8   .5   1.24

.15   Maynor,Eric     Okl   13   .750   35.9   3.0   8.0   2.7   6.8   5.4   .0   2.86
.15   Harden,James    Okl   27   .667   19.9   3.5   5.3   5.8   2.6   2.6   .6   1.29
.12   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   34   .545   10.3  10.2    .7   5.5    .0   1.1  3.8    .86
.06   Collison,Nick   Okl   20   .667   10.9   8.5   1.0   6.9   2.6    .9   .9    .76
.06   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   20   .417   10.9   6.9   3.8   4.4   1.8   2.7   .9    .69

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Battier,Shane   Mem   21   .500    9.9   7.4    .9   3.3   1.6    .8  1.6    .63
.05   Allen,Tony      Mem   26   .525   13.7   5.7    .8   5.8   1.4   1.4   .0    .47
.05   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   26   .500   14.1   5.2   2.9   3.4   1.3   4.0   .0    .44
.02   Vasquez,Greivis Mem    8   .667   11.2   4.7   6.6   4.2   2.1   4.2   .0    .61
.02   Young,Sam       Mem   26   .500    9.1   5.7    .0   1.4    .7    .0   .0    .18

.01   Cook,Daequan    Okl   10   .667   11.7   3.7    .0   1.7    .0    .0   .0    .15
-.02  Mohammed,Nazr   Okl    8   .000     .0   6.9    .0   2.1    .0   2.1  2.1   -.46
-.04 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   31   .400    1.7   7.3   2.2   3.6    .0   2.4   .6   -.32
-.05  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   24   .889    7.3   0.9    .0   1.6    .0   1.6   .0   -.54

Effective shooting% - Okl .581, Mem .543
Rebounds per game - Mem 41.5 - 38 Okl
Turnovers forced - Mem 17 - 11.5 Okl

In 49 minutes, Westbrook and Maynor are totaling 35.5 points, 8.5 assists, 7.5 turnovers.

[Mike G]

Mavs 2 , Lakers 0
avg score 94.5 - 87.5
Pythagorean wins 1.46 - .54
eWins 1.23 - .77

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.44   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   38   .605   29.4  10.8   2.8   1.4   1.0   1.0   .5   2.78
.30   Bryant,Kobe      LA   37   .546   31.2   2.5   1.3   1.5   3.0   2.0   .5   1.97
.23   Barea,Jose Juan Dal   16   .588   34.8   4.0  13.4   1.2    .0   2.4   .0   3.58
.19   Gasol,Pau        LA   35   .500   15.4  11.4   3.9   4.2    .5   2.1  1.0   1.35
.17   Terry,Jason     Dal   31   .500   14.9   3.1   6.6   1.2   1.7    .6   .6   1.30

.15   Bynum,Andrew     LA   33   .619   14.1  10.3   1.0   1.7    .0    .6  1.1   1.07
.14   Odom,Lamar       LA   29   .420   11.2  13.7   3.1   1.9    .0   1.3   .6   1.19
.12   Kidd,Jason      Dal   34   .515   11.4   4.1  11.3   3.2   2.2   4.8   .5    .82
.11   Marion,Shawn    Dal   34   .471   13.3   7.6   3.4   1.1    .5   2.2   .5    .75
.09   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   33   .654    9.5   9.7    .7   2.8    .0    .0  1.7    .66

.05   Brewer,Corey    Dal    4   .625   31.5   5.4   6.2  10.0   5.0    .0   .0   3.16
.05   Fisher,Derek     LA   32   .444    6.3   2.4   6.3   2.9   2.3    .6   .6    .38
.04   Artest,Ron       LA   31   .325    5.1   5.5   3.6   2.4   1.8    .6  2.4    .34
.04  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   12   .500   17.8   3.9   4.5   5.4   1.8   3.6  1.8    .80
.04   Haywood,Brendan Dal   15   .500    9.3  11.0   1.6   7.6    .0   2.5  5.0    .57

.01   Brown,Shannon    LA   14   .522   19.8   1.5   1.4   2.8   2.8   5.7  1.4    .10
-.01  Barnes,Matt      LA   13   .250    3.4  10.6   2.9   5.9    .0   3.0  1.5   -.23
-.05  Stojakovic,Peja Dal   24   .412    7.4   2.5    .0   2.3    .0    .0   .0   -.47
-.10  Blake,Steve      LA   19   .000     .0   2.1   1.0    .0   1.0   2.0   .0  -1.30

Lakers are taking the boards, 44.0 - 39.5, but getting outshot .468 to .537

Extreme difference in contributions from the bench. Other than Odom for LA, Terry and Haywood for Dallas, here are combined per game averages.
Peja, Barea and Brewer (Dal) vs Barnes, Brown, and Blake (LA), in almost identical minutes.

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Team      MPG   Eff%   Pts.   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl    TO   Blk
Dal: BBS   44   .513   19.5   3.5   5.0   3.0    .5   1.0    .0
LAL: BBB   45   .314    8.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   1.5   4.0   1.0

Odom vs Terry is just about a wash (minutes and production).

[Mike G]

Mavs 3 , Lakers 0
avg score 95.7 - 89
Pythagorean 2.17 - .83
eWins 1.83 - 1.17

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.65   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   39   .656   32.7  10.0   2.2   1.5    .6   1.8   .6   2.65
.38   Bryant,Kobe      LA   37   .539   26.2   3.2   2.8   2.0   2.3   2.0   .3   1.63
.33   Terry,Jason     Dal   33   .618   20.8   3.1   4.9   1.1   1.8    .4   .4   1.62
.28   Bynum,Andrew     LA   34   .610   18.4  10.8   1.0   2.8    .4   1.4   .7   1.30
.23   Odom,Lamar       LA   33   .459   13.1  10.7   2.8   2.2    .4   1.1   .7   1.11

.23   Barea,Jose Juan Dal   15   .500   21.8   2.6  14.4    .8    .0   1.6   .0   2.41
.21   Gasol,Pau        LA   36   .471   12.9  10.5   3.2   4.0    .3   2.0   .7    .92
.21   Kidd,Jason      Dal   34   .459   10.5   4.3  12.1   2.5   1.4   4.6   .7    .96
.14   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   33   .714   11.2   8.5    .5   3.3    .4    .0  1.5    .66
.12   Marion,Shawn    Dal   33   .400    9.1   8.6   4.0   1.1    .8   2.6  1.1    .58

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08   Fisher,Derek     LA   33   .467    7.5   2.5   5.9   3.4   2.3    .8   .4    .41
.06  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   11   .600   17.1   2.6   6.0   7.1   1.2   2.4  1.2    .91
.06   Artest,Ron       LA   21   .325    5.6   5.8   3.6   2.4   1.8    .6  2.4    .46
.04   Brewer,Corey    Dal    3   .500   22.2   4.6   5.4   8.5   4.2    .0   .0   1.99
.04   Stojakovic,Peja Dal   24   .500   14.0   3.3    .0   2.5    .0    .0   .0    .25

.03   Brown,Shannon    LA   15   .537   18.4   3.4    .8   3.9   1.6   3.9   .8    .32
.03   Haywood,Brendan Dal   15   .500    6.1  13.4   1.1   8.2    .0   2.5  3.3    .32
-.03  Barnes,Matt      LA   12   .200    2.1   8.5   2.0   5.9    .0   2.0  1.0   -.43
-.06  Blake,Steve      LA   17   .278    2.2   3.8   2.1    .7   1.4   1.4   .0   -.55

Eff% - Dal .557 - .484 LA
Reb/G - LA 41.7 - 39.3 Dal
Dirk doing as much as the 2 best Lakers (Kobe + Bynum). Gasol: just another stiff.

[Mike G]

Grizz 2 , Thunder 1
avg score 105.7 - 101.7
Pythagorean 1.88- 1.12
eWins 1.69 - 1.31

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.45   Randolph,Zach   Mem   40   .490   19.6  12.4   2.3   3.0    .9   1.8   .9   1.77
.44   Gasol,Marc      Mem   37   .533   15.7  10.2   3.1   3.0   1.3    .7  3.6   1.89
.41  Westbrook,Russel Okl   38   .487   23.0   5.2   9.0   3.8   1.9   5.8   .0   1.73
.37   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .547   22.0   8.2   1.6   2.6    .3   2.0   .6   1.41
.32   Conley,Mike     Mem   42   .600   17.9   2.4   5.8   2.6   1.4   2.0   .6   1.19

.23   Harden,James    Okl   26   .633   19.1   4.5   4.3   4.8   2.2   2.6  1.3   1.40
.20   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   37   .535    9.9   8.4    .4   5.0    .0    .7  4.3    .86
.15   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   31   .476   13.6   5.0   3.3   3.0   1.5   2.2   .7    .78
.15   Maynor,Eric     Okl   12   .625   23.7   2.9   7.6   1.9   4.8   3.9   .0   2.06
.11   Allen,Tony      Mem   27   .517   13.8   5.2   1.5   4.6   1.4   1.4   .5    .65

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Vasquez,Greivis Mem    7   .600   11.3   6.3   8.3   3.0   4.6   3.0   .0   1.45
.06   Collison,Nick   Okl   21   .600    9.3   6.7    .6   6.6   1.6    .5  1.1    .49
.06   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   17   .417   11.4   5.6   3.0   4.8   1.4   2.1   .7    .60
.04   Battier,Shane   Mem   22   .500    7.2   6.4   1.1   2.6   1.0    .5  1.0    .32
.02   Young,Sam       Mem   22   .458    9.0   5.7    .0   1.1   1.1   1.1   .0    .11

-.01 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   31   .417    3.0   9.8   1.8   4.8    .4   2.0   .4   -.04
-.02  Mohammed,Nazr   Okl    7   .200    1.3   9.3    .0   4.6    .0   3.0  1.5   -.45
-.02  Cook,Daequan    Okl    9   .444    6.4   2.4    .0   3.6    .0    .0   .0   -.41
-.06  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   25   .560    5.7   1.5    .6   1.5   1.0   1.0   .5   -.38

Effective shooting% -- Okl .531, Mem .510
Reb/48 - Mem 44.5 , Okl 41.6
TO - Okl 15.7 , Mem 10.7

[Mike G]

Mavs 4 , Lakers 0
avg score 102.3 - 88.3
Pythagorean wins 3.51 - .49
eWins 2.75 - 1.25

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.77   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   38   .664   32.3   9.8   3.2   1.7    .7   1.7   .5   2.45
.60   Terry,Jason     Dal   31   .745   32.7   2.8   5.6   1.4   1.4   1.1   .6   2.34
.38   Barea,Jose Juan Dal   18   .582   27.9   2.1  14.3    .5    .0   1.9   .0   2.52
.31   Bryant,Kobe      LA   37   .514   22.3   3.2   2.2   1.7   1.7   2.7   .2   1.01
.28   Kidd,Jason      Dal   32   .425    8.7   4.0  13.2   3.1   2.3   4.3   .6   1.05

.27   Gasol,Pau        LA   36   .467   11.5  10.3   3.6   3.8    .5   1.5   .8    .90
.24   Bynum,Andrew     LA   34   .570   14.8  10.2    .9   2.7    .5   1.9   .8    .85
.20   Odom,Lamar       LA   29   .490   13.8   9.6   2.4   3.3    .3   1.8   .6    .83
.20   Stojakovic,Peja Dal   25   .676   20.8   3.4    .9   2.4   1.0    .3   .0    .95
.17   Marion,Shawn    Dal   31   .420    9.8   8.9   4.7   2.1    .9   3.3   .9    .65

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   31   .682   10.7   9.6    .4   3.2    .3    .3  1.2    .63
.12   Brown,Shannon    LA   17   .578   19.5   3.3   1.3   3.5   2.5   2.5   .5    .82
.10   Fisher,Derek     LA   31   .400    6.1   4.2   4.6   3.0   2.4    .6   .3    .40
.08   Artest,Ron       LA   23   .407    7.8   4.9   2.9   3.3   2.0   1.2  1.6    .44
.07   Haywood,Brendan Dal   15   .579    7.5  14.1   1.5   6.7    .0   3.4  2.8    .55

.04   Brewer,Corey    Dal    4   .500   18.4   2.6   3.3   4.8   7.2   2.4   .0   1.34
.04  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   13   .469   10.9   2.4   6.0   7.2    .7   2.2   .7    .35
.02   Barnes,Matt      LA   13   .371    6.6   9.7   1.9   5.4    .7   2.0   .7    .19
-.06  Blake,Steve      LA   18   .308    2.4   3.2   1.8    .5   1.5   1.0   .0   -.39

Dal shot .601 to LA's .476; LA by 1.5 on the boards and 1.5 fewer TO per game.
From game 3 to this total, Dal gained 1.34 Pyth wins, and LA had minus-.34 (due to game 4).
In eWins, game 4 was .92 - .08

[Mike G]

Grizz 2, Thunder 2
avg score Mem 110 - 109.5 Okl
Pythag 2.06 - 1.94, eWins 2.03 - 1.97

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.61  Westbrook,Russel Okl   41   .498   22.9   4.8   8.7   3.7   2.0   4.6   .4   1.95
.54   Randolph,Zach   Mem   44   .495   18.8  11.7   2.2   2.6    .8   2.2   .8   1.63
.54   Gasol,Marc      Mem   42   .547   15.3  11.3   2.7   2.6   1.3   1.7  2.6   1.72
.51   Durant,Kevin    Okl   46   .563   21.9   8.3   1.5   2.1   1.0   2.3   .4   1.49
.35   Harden,James    Okl   32   .620   16.4   4.9   5.4   3.6   1.4   1.9  1.7   1.43

.31   Conley,Mike     Mem   41   .557   15.5   2.0   5.6   3.3   1.5   2.0   .4   1.00
.26   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   32   .542   11.7   8.2    .4   5.8    .0    .9  4.1   1.10
.25   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   33   .518   14.2   5.0   3.8   3.8   1.1   1.6   .8    .99
.14   Maynor,Eric     Okl   12   .575   17.7   3.9   7.6   3.0   3.8   3.8   .0   1.55
.11   Vasquez,Greivis Mem   12   .513   13.4   6.0   5.4   2.9   2.2   1.5   .0   1.18

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.08   Allen,Tony      Mem   28   .463   10.4   4.1   1.8   5.0   1.7   2.3   .7    .37
.08   Collison,Nick   Okl   25   .579    7.5   6.4    .9   6.1   1.8    .4   .7    .43
.07   Battier,Shane   Mem   27   .511    6.9   5.1   1.8   3.0    .7    .3  1.3    .35
.06   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   15   .367    9.4   5.6   2.7   6.6   1.2   1.8  1.2    .58
.03   Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   11   .450    6.1   8.8    .0   6.0    .0   1.7  2.6    .38

.01   Young,Sam       Mem   21   .393    7.2   5.2    .5   1.8   1.4    .9   .0    .08
.01  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   32   .452    3.3   9.7   1.5   5.3    .3   2.3   .3    .04
.00   Cook,Daequan    Okl   13   .474    9.8   5.0    .0   2.1    .0   1.4   .0    .04
-.02  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   23   .545    6.9   2.6   1.1   1.3    .8   1.3   .4   -.11

Eff% Okl .538 - .498 Mem
Reb/48 Mem 43.7 - 41.4 Okl
TO Mem 12.5 - 16 Okl
Games are averaging 53 minutes in this series, so the avg eWins/530 is 1.00

[Mike G]

Thunder 3 , Grizz 2
avg score 107.4 - 102.4
Pythagorean 3.27 - 1.73
eWins 2.88 - 2.12

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e520
.85  Westbrook,Russel Okl   38   .498   22.3   4.8   9.7   3.8   1.9   4.6   .4   2.32
.82   Durant,Kevin    Okl   43   .563   23.3   8.4   1.4   2.0    .8   2.2   .7   2.00
.74   Gasol,Marc      Mem   40   .559   16.4  10.6   2.3   2.5   1.6   1.8  2.5   1.93
.63   Randolph,Zach   Mem   43   .481   16.4  11.0   1.7   3.0    .8   2.0   .7   1.55
.52   Harden,James    Okl   31   .611   17.1   5.5   6.3   3.4   1.1   2.3  1.4   1.74

.30   Conley,Mike     Mem   39   .503   13.6   2.7   5.3   2.8   1.3   2.2   .4    .80
.29   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   30   .524   12.7   8.1    .3   5.8    .3    .8  4.3   1.02
.24   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   32   .485   12.2   4.6   4.0   3.4    .9   1.3   .7    .79
.20   Maynor,Eric     Okl   14   .462   10.5   3.7  11.8   3.1   3.1   3.6   .0   1.47
.20   Vasquez,Greivis Mem   13   .578   14.9   5.2   5.5   2.2   1.7   1.1   .6   1.57

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e520
.17   Cook,Daequan    Okl   14   .667   22.0   4.8    .0   3.1    .5   1.0   .0   1.29
.11   Collison,Nick   Okl   25   .564    9.1   8.1   1.2   6.1   1.7    .9   .6    .48
.06   Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   13   .528   10.2   9.3    .0   5.0   1.1   1.7  1.7    .50
.05   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   15   .419   11.2   5.5   2.0   6.8   1.9   2.4  1.4    .35

-.02  Battier,Shane   Mem   24   .453    5.6   5.5   1.5   2.9    .6    .6  1.2   -.08
-.06  Allen,Tony      Mem   28   .425    9.1   3.9   1.9   4.8   1.6   2.7   .5   -.21
-.07  Young,Sam       Mem   21   .371    6.1   4.9    .4   2.2   1.1   1.1   .4   -.35
-.08  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   21   .541    7.0   4.5   1.0   1.8    .7   1.8   .4   -.37
-.15 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   30   .442    3.8   9.0   1.3   5.2    .2   2.7   .2   -.53

Eff% Okl .542 - .482 Mem
Reb/48 Okl 43.0 - 41.7 Mem
TO Okl 16.2 - 12.8 Mem

[Mike G]

Thunder 3 , Grizzlies 3
avg score Okl 103.3 - 101.2 Mem
Pythagorean 3.42 - 2.58
eWins 3.21 - 2.79

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.93  Westbrook,Russel Okl   38   .507   24.2   4.5   8.3   3.5   1.9   4.6   .3   1.96
.78   Randolph,Zach   Mem   42   .498   19.0  11.1   1.5   3.0    .7   2.0   .8   1.49
.72   Durant,Kevin    Okl   42   .533   20.9   8.2   1.5   2.4    .7   2.0   .6   1.38
.69   Gasol,Marc      Mem   40   .547   14.9  10.1   2.3   2.7   1.7   1.7  2.5   1.40
.55   Harden,James    Okl   32   .611   16.8   5.7   6.0   3.2    .9   2.2  1.1   1.37

.43   Conley,Mike     Mem   40   .487   13.1   2.8   6.5   2.4   1.4   2.1   .3    .87
.34   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   33   .506   13.7   4.5   3.8   3.3   1.5   1.5   .5    .84
.31   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   29   .539   13.0   8.1    .3   6.0    .2   1.3  3.8    .85
.24   Maynor,Eric     Okl   14   .469   13.2   4.4  10.8   2.8   2.8   3.7   .0   1.44
.18   Vasquez,Greivis Mem   12   .531   13.5   4.9   6.6   2.6   1.6   1.0   .5   1.21

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.18   Collison,Nick   Okl   24   .569    9.9   8.4   1.0   5.9   1.8   1.0   .8    .62
.14   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   14   .433   14.5   5.4   1.9   7.5   2.2   2.6  1.3    .80
.14   Cook,Daequan    Okl   14   .600   17.2   6.2    .6   3.2    .5   1.4   .0    .80
.10   Allen,Tony      Mem   27   .458   11.2   4.5   1.7   5.1   1.6   2.8   .5    .30
.09   Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   12   .476    9.6  10.0    .0   5.8   1.1   1.6  2.1    .62

.03   Battier,Shane   Mem   25   .446    5.9   5.8   1.8   2.9    .5    .7  1.0    .09
.00  Perkins,Kendrick Okl   31   .455    4.4   8.9   1.3   4.6    .4   2.2   .6    .01
-.01  Young,Sam       Mem   20   .384    7.8   4.3    .4   2.3   1.0   1.0   .3   -.06
-.03  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   20   .533    7.4   4.2   1.2   1.6    .6   2.2   .6   -.13

Eff% - Okl .533 - .485 Mem
Reb - Okl 42.7 - 41.6 Mem
TO - Okl 16.2 - 12.5 Mem

[Bobbofitos]

Mike have you ever considered capping off a # for blowouts? Game 5 was a blowout which has affected the pyth wins for both teams. Same deal w/ eWins - garbage time is irrelevant, thoughts of simply removing it?

[Mike G]

Good question(s). After 4 games, the series was as close as could be, Okl +0.5 PPG. The pythag at that time was 2.03-1.97 .
After game 5, pythag was distended to 3.27-1.73 . Okl gained 1.24 pWins while Mem earned -.24 .
The first quarter was even, and Okl took the next 3, by 8 to 11 points each. It's intuitively unacceptable (to me) that the Grizz were really worth -.24 wins. Splitting the first quarter, they should have earned 1/8 of a win right there?

The eWins ledger after 5 games was 2.88-2.12 . The Grizz in fact gained .15 eWins, while Okl took .85, for game 5. That feels about right.
On the season, their SRS were 3.81 and 2.55. This suggests a 1.26 ppg advantage to Okl, and they're averaging +2.0 : Over 6 games, Okl has outscored Mem by 4 points more than expected. Both teams have had their good and bad spells.

Sometimes a blowout is really 'not as close as the final score', and sometimes a tight game blows up at the end. I don't see a reliable and systematic way to adjust for this. The game ends abruptly at 48 minutes, and all good and bad play is then tallied.


An unrelated oddity about the series: Mem has the better ORb% (.312-.305) and the better DRb% (.695-.688) in the series. Okl has more total rebounds, though (274-267).

[Bobbofitos]

An unrelated oddity about the series: Mem has the better ORb% (.312-.305) and the better DRb% (.695-.688) in the series. Okl has more total rebounds, though (274-267).

hah, I wonder how often this occurs?

[Mike G]

Thunder 4 , Grizzlies 3
avg score 103.6 - 99.6
Pythagorean wins - 4.40 - 2.60
eWins 3.95 - 3.05

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e509
1.23 Westbrook,Russel Okl   37   .503   24.0   5.4   9.7   3.3   1.7   4.7   .4   2.39
1.09  Durant,Kevin    Okl   41   .556   23.6   8.4   1.6   2.4    .6   2.0   .9   1.92
.94   Randolph,Zach   Mem   42   .495   18.3  11.1   1.4   3.0    .7   1.9   .9   1.65
.85   Gasol,Marc      Mem   39   .542   14.5   9.9   2.1   2.8   1.5   1.7  2.5   1.58
.77   Harden,James    Okl   32   .626   18.2   5.5   5.6   2.7   1.4   2.1  1.1   1.74

.51   Conley,Mike     Mem   40   .481   13.2   3.1   6.3   2.4   1.2   2.2   .3    .93
.38   Mayo,O.J.       Mem   33   .503   13.2   4.7   3.4   3.4   1.3   1.4   .6    .84
.27   Ibaka,Serge     Okl   27   .520   11.0   7.8    .3   6.0    .2   1.2  3.8    .73
.25   Maynor,Eric     Okl   13   .471   12.4   4.0   9.5   2.6   2.3   3.0   .0   1.34
.24   Collison,Nick   Okl   25   .600    9.1   9.1   1.0   5.2   1.6    .8  1.2    .70

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e509
.21   Vasquez,Greivis Mem   12   .544   14.6   4.6   6.3   2.6   1.3   1.7   .4   1.31
.09   Allen,Tony      Mem   27   .463   10.9   4.5   1.6   5.0   2.2   2.6   .6    .23
.07   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   15   .431   12.3   4.3   1.4   6.2   1.7   2.1  1.0    .36
.01   Cook,Daequan    Okl   13   .529   11.0   5.1    .5   2.6    .4   1.5   .0    .07
.07   Mohammed,Nazr   Okl   12   .520    9.4   8.1    .0   5.7   1.2   1.2  1.6    .42

-.05  Battier,Shane   Mem   25   .429    4.5   5.6   1.4   2.8    .6    .6   .8   -.15
-.06  Sefolosha,Thabo Okl   20   .509    7.2   4.7   1.8   1.9    .8   2.8   .6   -.23
-.07  Young,Sam       Mem   18   .378    6.6   4.4    .3   2.4    .9    .9   .3   -.27
-.12 Perkins,Kendrick Okl   31   .460    4.2   8.2   1.1   4.7    .3   2.1   .9   -.28

The average game was 50.86 minutes, so avg eW/508.6 min = 1.00
Team effective shooting% - Okl .541 - .482 Mem
Reb/G - Okl 42.9 - 41.3 Mem
TO/G - Okl 15.7 - 12.1 Mem

[gfarkas]

An unrelated oddity about the series: Mem has the better ORb% (.312-.305) and the better DRb% (.695-.688) in the series. Okl has more total rebounds, though (274-267).

I would think the first two would always happen together, by definition. If Team A has a higher OReb% than Team B, then they would also have a higher DReb%, by definition.

OReb%_A = OReb_A / (OReb_A + DReb_B)
DReb%_A = DReb_A / (OReb_B + DReb_A)
OReb%_B = OReb_B / (OReb_B + DReb_A)
DReb%_B = DReb_B / (OReb_A + DReb_B)

Therefore, OReb%_A = 1 - DReb%_B, and OReb%_B = 1 - DReb%_A.

So, if OReb%_A > OReb%_B, then it must also be true that
(1 - OReb%_A) < (1 - OReb%_B)
and therefore
(1 - (1 - DReb%_B) ) < (1 - (1 - DReb%_A) )
Working these out to remove the parentheses, we get
DReb%_B < DReb%_A
or, restated,
DReb%_A > DReb%_B

For Team B to have more total rebounds, (OReb_B + DReb_B) > (OReb_A + DReb_A), all you need is for Team A to be missing a lot of shots, thus creating more opportunities for either OReb_A or DReb_B to occur. Since either DReb% occurs at a much higher rate than either OReb%, Team B will rack up more overall rebounds, despite not having the edge in either Rebounding %.