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2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Mon May 02, 2011 2:43 pm
by Mike G
Grizzlies 1 , Thunder 0
score 114 - 101
Pythagorean Wins .83 - .17
eWins .67 - .33
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.23 Randolph,Zach Mem 38 .642 37.5 9.9 1.9 2.9 2.9 1.0 .0 2.94
.21 Gasol,Marc Mem 35 .769 27.0 13.9 4.2 3.1 1.0 .0 3.1 2.93
.18 Durant,Kevin Okl 44 .623 27.7 9.1 2.4 1.7 .8 2.5 1.7 2.01
.11 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .500 25.6 7.7 6.0 4.8 1.0 6.7 .0 1.41
.10 Ibaka,Serge Okl 37 .533 12.5 10.9 1.0 5.0 .0 1.0 5.0 1.25
.08 Conley,Mike Mem 39 .469 12.4 1.0 7.0 4.7 1.9 .0 .9 .97
.06 Battier,Shane Mem 28 .550 13.1 6.3 1.3 1.2 2.5 1.2 2.5 1.02
.04 Allen,Tony Mem 23 .500 17.9 6.6 1.7 8.0 1.6 1.6 .0 .90
.03 Arthur,Darrell Mem 19 .375 7.6 5.4 3.8 3.5 1.8 .0 1.8 .72
.03 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 9 .667 19.3 3.6 11.2 7.1 .0 3.5 .0 1.35
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.01 Maynor,Eric Okl 10 .300 6.3 3.2 9.9 3.2 6.4 6.4 .0 .70
.01 Collison,Nick Okl 15 .625 9.5 4.4 .0 6.6 2.2 .0 .0 .20
.00 Mayo,O.J. Mem 24 .400 6.9 7.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 4.3 .0 -.08
-.01 Cook,Daequan Okl 10 .500 6.6 3.2 .0 3.2 .0 .0 .0 -.28
-.01 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 8 .000 .0 0.0 .0 .0 .0 .0 4.0 -.52
-.01 Young,Sam Mem 25 .429 6.0 4.5 .0 1.5 .0 .0 .0 -.20
-.01 Harden,James Okl 24 .500 5.9 2.8 2.9 7.1 1.4 2.8 .0 -.29
-.02 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 25 1.000 9.6 0.0 .0 1.5 .0 1.5 .0 -.43
-.03 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 29 .333 1.5 7.6 1.3 2.5 .0 2.5 .0 -.48
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Tue May 03, 2011 1:35 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 1 , Lakers 0
score 96 - 94
Pythagorean .57 - .43
eWins .53 - .47
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.20 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 38 .571 29.0 13.6 3.2 1.0 1.9 1.0 1.0 2.54
.15 Bryant,Kobe LA 35 .571 39.9 5.7 .0 2.1 1.0 3.1 1.0 2.11
.11 Gasol,Pau LA 36 .577 16.8 12.1 6.8 3.1 .0 3.1 1.0 1.46
.10 Odom,Lamar LA 31 .600 18.2 14.6 2.1 1.1 .0 1.1 1.1 1.54
.09 Kidd,Jason Dal 34 .700 9.8 5.5 13.2 2.2 3.2 5.4 1.1 1.22
.08 Terry,Jason Dal 30 .682 21.0 3.5 5.1 2.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.35
.07 Chandler,Tyson Dal 35 .611 11.7 9.6 1.2 2.1 .0 .0 3.1 .95
.07 Barea,Jose Juan Dal 14 .667 23.9 4.9 13.6 2.4 .0 .0 .0 2.31
.06 Fisher,Derek LA 31 .615 10.5 1.3 7.0 3.6 2.4 .0 1.2 .86
.04 Marion,Shawn Dal 34 .385 9.3 4.4 5.3 1.1 1.1 2.2 1.1 .50
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.03 Brewer,Corey Dal 8 .625 23.5 4.2 4.7 8.3 4.1 .0 .0 1.74
.02 Bynum,Andrew LA 29 .444 8.5 6.9 1.3 1.3 .0 .0 1.3 .37
.02 Artest,Ron LA 31 .125 1.0 3.9 5.1 .0 3.6 1.2 1.2 .26
.01 Barnes,Matt LA 16 .333 6.4 11.4 2.2 4.2 .0 2.1 2.1 .44
.01 Brown,Shannon LA 14 .462 14.0 2.6 .0 .0 4.8 4.8 2.4 .48
.01 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 24 .625 14.7 2.9 .0 1.4 .0 .0 .0 .27
-.01 Haywood,Brendan Dal 13 1.000 7.0 0.0 .0 10.3 .0 .0 2.6 -.35
-.02 Blake,Steve LA 17 .000 .0 2.2 .0 .0 2.0 .0 .0 -.58
-.03 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 10 .000 .0 0.0 4.5 3.8 .0 7.6 .0 -1.38
Mavs shot .568, to .500 for LA.
Lakers won the boards, 44-40.
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Wed May 04, 2011 12:54 pm
by Mike G
Grizzlies 1 , Thunder 1
avg score Mem 108 - 106 Okl
Pythagorean 1.12 - .88
eWins 1.06 - .94
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.33 Gasol,Marc Mem 36 .635 18.3 13.0 3.6 3.0 1.5 1.0 4.0 2.18
.29 Durant,Kevin Okl 39 .596 28.2 8.2 2.2 3.3 .5 2.3 .9 1.81
.28 Randolph,Zach Mem 39 .538 22.4 10.0 2.4 3.3 1.4 1.4 .9 1.74
.27 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .510 26.9 5.6 7.8 3.1 2.1 5.7 .0 1.82
.21 Conley,Mike Mem 40 .619 19.4 1.5 7.1 3.2 1.4 1.8 .5 1.24
.15 Maynor,Eric Okl 13 .750 35.9 3.0 8.0 2.7 6.8 5.4 .0 2.86
.15 Harden,James Okl 27 .667 19.9 3.5 5.3 5.8 2.6 2.6 .6 1.29
.12 Ibaka,Serge Okl 34 .545 10.3 10.2 .7 5.5 .0 1.1 3.8 .86
.06 Collison,Nick Okl 20 .667 10.9 8.5 1.0 6.9 2.6 .9 .9 .76
.06 Arthur,Darrell Mem 20 .417 10.9 6.9 3.8 4.4 1.8 2.7 .9 .69
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.06 Battier,Shane Mem 21 .500 9.9 7.4 .9 3.3 1.6 .8 1.6 .63
.05 Allen,Tony Mem 26 .525 13.7 5.7 .8 5.8 1.4 1.4 .0 .47
.05 Mayo,O.J. Mem 26 .500 14.1 5.2 2.9 3.4 1.3 4.0 .0 .44
.02 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 8 .667 11.2 4.7 6.6 4.2 2.1 4.2 .0 .61
.02 Young,Sam Mem 26 .500 9.1 5.7 .0 1.4 .7 .0 .0 .18
.01 Cook,Daequan Okl 10 .667 11.7 3.7 .0 1.7 .0 .0 .0 .15
-.02 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 8 .000 .0 6.9 .0 2.1 .0 2.1 2.1 -.46
-.04 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 31 .400 1.7 7.3 2.2 3.6 .0 2.4 .6 -.32
-.05 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 24 .889 7.3 0.9 .0 1.6 .0 1.6 .0 -.54
Effective shooting% - Okl .581, Mem .543
Rebounds per game - Mem 41.5 - 38 Okl
Turnovers forced - Mem 17 - 11.5 Okl
In 49 minutes, Westbrook and Maynor are totaling 35.5 points, 8.5 assists, 7.5 turnovers.
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Thu May 05, 2011 1:31 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 2 , Lakers 0
avg score 94.5 - 87.5
Pythagorean wins 1.46 - .54
eWins 1.23 - .77
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.44 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 38 .605 29.4 10.8 2.8 1.4 1.0 1.0 .5 2.78
.30 Bryant,Kobe LA 37 .546 31.2 2.5 1.3 1.5 3.0 2.0 .5 1.97
.23 Barea,Jose Juan Dal 16 .588 34.8 4.0 13.4 1.2 .0 2.4 .0 3.58
.19 Gasol,Pau LA 35 .500 15.4 11.4 3.9 4.2 .5 2.1 1.0 1.35
.17 Terry,Jason Dal 31 .500 14.9 3.1 6.6 1.2 1.7 .6 .6 1.30
.15 Bynum,Andrew LA 33 .619 14.1 10.3 1.0 1.7 .0 .6 1.1 1.07
.14 Odom,Lamar LA 29 .420 11.2 13.7 3.1 1.9 .0 1.3 .6 1.19
.12 Kidd,Jason Dal 34 .515 11.4 4.1 11.3 3.2 2.2 4.8 .5 .82
.11 Marion,Shawn Dal 34 .471 13.3 7.6 3.4 1.1 .5 2.2 .5 .75
.09 Chandler,Tyson Dal 33 .654 9.5 9.7 .7 2.8 .0 .0 1.7 .66
.05 Brewer,Corey Dal 4 .625 31.5 5.4 6.2 10.0 5.0 .0 .0 3.16
.05 Fisher,Derek LA 32 .444 6.3 2.4 6.3 2.9 2.3 .6 .6 .38
.04 Artest,Ron LA 31 .325 5.1 5.5 3.6 2.4 1.8 .6 2.4 .34
.04 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 12 .500 17.8 3.9 4.5 5.4 1.8 3.6 1.8 .80
.04 Haywood,Brendan Dal 15 .500 9.3 11.0 1.6 7.6 .0 2.5 5.0 .57
.01 Brown,Shannon LA 14 .522 19.8 1.5 1.4 2.8 2.8 5.7 1.4 .10
-.01 Barnes,Matt LA 13 .250 3.4 10.6 2.9 5.9 .0 3.0 1.5 -.23
-.05 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 24 .412 7.4 2.5 .0 2.3 .0 .0 .0 -.47
-.10 Blake,Steve LA 19 .000 .0 2.1 1.0 .0 1.0 2.0 .0 -1.30
Lakers are taking the boards, 44.0 - 39.5, but getting outshot .468 to .537
Extreme difference in contributions from the bench. Other than Odom for LA, Terry and Haywood for Dallas, here are combined per game averages.
Peja, Barea and Brewer (Dal) vs Barnes, Brown, and Blake (LA), in almost identical minutes.
Code: Select all
Team MPG Eff% Pts. Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk
Dal: BBS 44 .513 19.5 3.5 5.0 3.0 .5 1.0 .0
LAL: BBB 45 .314 8.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 1.5 4.0 1.0
Odom vs Terry is just about a wash (minutes and production).
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Sat May 07, 2011 2:03 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 3 , Lakers 0
avg score 95.7 - 89
Pythagorean 2.17 - .83
eWins 1.83 - 1.17
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.65 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 39 .656 32.7 10.0 2.2 1.5 .6 1.8 .6 2.65
.38 Bryant,Kobe LA 37 .539 26.2 3.2 2.8 2.0 2.3 2.0 .3 1.63
.33 Terry,Jason Dal 33 .618 20.8 3.1 4.9 1.1 1.8 .4 .4 1.62
.28 Bynum,Andrew LA 34 .610 18.4 10.8 1.0 2.8 .4 1.4 .7 1.30
.23 Odom,Lamar LA 33 .459 13.1 10.7 2.8 2.2 .4 1.1 .7 1.11
.23 Barea,Jose Juan Dal 15 .500 21.8 2.6 14.4 .8 .0 1.6 .0 2.41
.21 Gasol,Pau LA 36 .471 12.9 10.5 3.2 4.0 .3 2.0 .7 .92
.21 Kidd,Jason Dal 34 .459 10.5 4.3 12.1 2.5 1.4 4.6 .7 .96
.14 Chandler,Tyson Dal 33 .714 11.2 8.5 .5 3.3 .4 .0 1.5 .66
.12 Marion,Shawn Dal 33 .400 9.1 8.6 4.0 1.1 .8 2.6 1.1 .58
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.08 Fisher,Derek LA 33 .467 7.5 2.5 5.9 3.4 2.3 .8 .4 .41
.06 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 11 .600 17.1 2.6 6.0 7.1 1.2 2.4 1.2 .91
.06 Artest,Ron LA 21 .325 5.6 5.8 3.6 2.4 1.8 .6 2.4 .46
.04 Brewer,Corey Dal 3 .500 22.2 4.6 5.4 8.5 4.2 .0 .0 1.99
.04 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 24 .500 14.0 3.3 .0 2.5 .0 .0 .0 .25
.03 Brown,Shannon LA 15 .537 18.4 3.4 .8 3.9 1.6 3.9 .8 .32
.03 Haywood,Brendan Dal 15 .500 6.1 13.4 1.1 8.2 .0 2.5 3.3 .32
-.03 Barnes,Matt LA 12 .200 2.1 8.5 2.0 5.9 .0 2.0 1.0 -.43
-.06 Blake,Steve LA 17 .278 2.2 3.8 2.1 .7 1.4 1.4 .0 -.55
Eff% - Dal .557 - .484 LA
Reb/G - LA 41.7 - 39.3 Dal
Dirk doing as much as the 2 best Lakers (Kobe + Bynum). Gasol: just another stiff.
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Sun May 08, 2011 1:40 pm
by Mike G
Grizz 2 , Thunder 1
avg score 105.7 - 101.7
Pythagorean 1.88- 1.12
eWins 1.69 - 1.31
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.45 Randolph,Zach Mem 40 .490 19.6 12.4 2.3 3.0 .9 1.8 .9 1.77
.44 Gasol,Marc Mem 37 .533 15.7 10.2 3.1 3.0 1.3 .7 3.6 1.89
.41 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .487 23.0 5.2 9.0 3.8 1.9 5.8 .0 1.73
.37 Durant,Kevin Okl 42 .547 22.0 8.2 1.6 2.6 .3 2.0 .6 1.41
.32 Conley,Mike Mem 42 .600 17.9 2.4 5.8 2.6 1.4 2.0 .6 1.19
.23 Harden,James Okl 26 .633 19.1 4.5 4.3 4.8 2.2 2.6 1.3 1.40
.20 Ibaka,Serge Okl 37 .535 9.9 8.4 .4 5.0 .0 .7 4.3 .86
.15 Mayo,O.J. Mem 31 .476 13.6 5.0 3.3 3.0 1.5 2.2 .7 .78
.15 Maynor,Eric Okl 12 .625 23.7 2.9 7.6 1.9 4.8 3.9 .0 2.06
.11 Allen,Tony Mem 27 .517 13.8 5.2 1.5 4.6 1.4 1.4 .5 .65
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.07 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 7 .600 11.3 6.3 8.3 3.0 4.6 3.0 .0 1.45
.06 Collison,Nick Okl 21 .600 9.3 6.7 .6 6.6 1.6 .5 1.1 .49
.06 Arthur,Darrell Mem 17 .417 11.4 5.6 3.0 4.8 1.4 2.1 .7 .60
.04 Battier,Shane Mem 22 .500 7.2 6.4 1.1 2.6 1.0 .5 1.0 .32
.02 Young,Sam Mem 22 .458 9.0 5.7 .0 1.1 1.1 1.1 .0 .11
-.01 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 31 .417 3.0 9.8 1.8 4.8 .4 2.0 .4 -.04
-.02 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 7 .200 1.3 9.3 .0 4.6 .0 3.0 1.5 -.45
-.02 Cook,Daequan Okl 9 .444 6.4 2.4 .0 3.6 .0 .0 .0 -.41
-.06 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 25 .560 5.7 1.5 .6 1.5 1.0 1.0 .5 -.38
Effective shooting% -- Okl .531, Mem .510
Reb/48 - Mem 44.5 , Okl 41.6
TO - Okl 15.7 , Mem 10.7
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Mon May 09, 2011 1:26 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 4 , Lakers 0
avg score 102.3 - 88.3
Pythagorean wins 3.51 - .49
eWins 2.75 - 1.25
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.77 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 38 .664 32.3 9.8 3.2 1.7 .7 1.7 .5 2.45
.60 Terry,Jason Dal 31 .745 32.7 2.8 5.6 1.4 1.4 1.1 .6 2.34
.38 Barea,Jose Juan Dal 18 .582 27.9 2.1 14.3 .5 .0 1.9 .0 2.52
.31 Bryant,Kobe LA 37 .514 22.3 3.2 2.2 1.7 1.7 2.7 .2 1.01
.28 Kidd,Jason Dal 32 .425 8.7 4.0 13.2 3.1 2.3 4.3 .6 1.05
.27 Gasol,Pau LA 36 .467 11.5 10.3 3.6 3.8 .5 1.5 .8 .90
.24 Bynum,Andrew LA 34 .570 14.8 10.2 .9 2.7 .5 1.9 .8 .85
.20 Odom,Lamar LA 29 .490 13.8 9.6 2.4 3.3 .3 1.8 .6 .83
.20 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 25 .676 20.8 3.4 .9 2.4 1.0 .3 .0 .95
.17 Marion,Shawn Dal 31 .420 9.8 8.9 4.7 2.1 .9 3.3 .9 .65
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Chandler,Tyson Dal 31 .682 10.7 9.6 .4 3.2 .3 .3 1.2 .63
.12 Brown,Shannon LA 17 .578 19.5 3.3 1.3 3.5 2.5 2.5 .5 .82
.10 Fisher,Derek LA 31 .400 6.1 4.2 4.6 3.0 2.4 .6 .3 .40
.08 Artest,Ron LA 23 .407 7.8 4.9 2.9 3.3 2.0 1.2 1.6 .44
.07 Haywood,Brendan Dal 15 .579 7.5 14.1 1.5 6.7 .0 3.4 2.8 .55
.04 Brewer,Corey Dal 4 .500 18.4 2.6 3.3 4.8 7.2 2.4 .0 1.34
.04 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 13 .469 10.9 2.4 6.0 7.2 .7 2.2 .7 .35
.02 Barnes,Matt LA 13 .371 6.6 9.7 1.9 5.4 .7 2.0 .7 .19
-.06 Blake,Steve LA 18 .308 2.4 3.2 1.8 .5 1.5 1.0 .0 -.39
Dal shot .601 to LA's .476; LA by 1.5 on the boards and 1.5 fewer TO per game.
From game 3 to this total, Dal gained 1.34 Pyth wins, and LA had minus-.34 (due to game 4).
In eWins, game 4 was .92 - .08
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Tue May 10, 2011 2:19 pm
by Mike G
Grizz 2, Thunder 2
avg score Mem 110 - 109.5 Okl
Pythag 2.06 - 1.94, eWins 2.03 - 1.97
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e530
.61 Westbrook,Russel Okl 41 .498 22.9 4.8 8.7 3.7 2.0 4.6 .4 1.95
.54 Randolph,Zach Mem 44 .495 18.8 11.7 2.2 2.6 .8 2.2 .8 1.63
.54 Gasol,Marc Mem 42 .547 15.3 11.3 2.7 2.6 1.3 1.7 2.6 1.72
.51 Durant,Kevin Okl 46 .563 21.9 8.3 1.5 2.1 1.0 2.3 .4 1.49
.35 Harden,James Okl 32 .620 16.4 4.9 5.4 3.6 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.43
.31 Conley,Mike Mem 41 .557 15.5 2.0 5.6 3.3 1.5 2.0 .4 1.00
.26 Ibaka,Serge Okl 32 .542 11.7 8.2 .4 5.8 .0 .9 4.1 1.10
.25 Mayo,O.J. Mem 33 .518 14.2 5.0 3.8 3.8 1.1 1.6 .8 .99
.14 Maynor,Eric Okl 12 .575 17.7 3.9 7.6 3.0 3.8 3.8 .0 1.55
.11 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 12 .513 13.4 6.0 5.4 2.9 2.2 1.5 .0 1.18
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e530
.08 Allen,Tony Mem 28 .463 10.4 4.1 1.8 5.0 1.7 2.3 .7 .37
.08 Collison,Nick Okl 25 .579 7.5 6.4 .9 6.1 1.8 .4 .7 .43
.07 Battier,Shane Mem 27 .511 6.9 5.1 1.8 3.0 .7 .3 1.3 .35
.06 Arthur,Darrell Mem 15 .367 9.4 5.6 2.7 6.6 1.2 1.8 1.2 .58
.03 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 11 .450 6.1 8.8 .0 6.0 .0 1.7 2.6 .38
.01 Young,Sam Mem 21 .393 7.2 5.2 .5 1.8 1.4 .9 .0 .08
.01 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 32 .452 3.3 9.7 1.5 5.3 .3 2.3 .3 .04
.00 Cook,Daequan Okl 13 .474 9.8 5.0 .0 2.1 .0 1.4 .0 .04
-.02 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 23 .545 6.9 2.6 1.1 1.3 .8 1.3 .4 -.11
Eff% Okl .538 - .498 Mem
Reb/48 Mem 43.7 - 41.4 Okl
TO Mem 12.5 - 16 Okl
Games are averaging 53 minutes in this series, so the avg eWins/530 is 1.00
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Thu May 12, 2011 1:56 pm
by Mike G
Thunder 3 , Grizz 2
avg score 107.4 - 102.4
Pythagorean 3.27 - 1.73
eWins 2.88 - 2.12
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e520
.85 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .498 22.3 4.8 9.7 3.8 1.9 4.6 .4 2.32
.82 Durant,Kevin Okl 43 .563 23.3 8.4 1.4 2.0 .8 2.2 .7 2.00
.74 Gasol,Marc Mem 40 .559 16.4 10.6 2.3 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.5 1.93
.63 Randolph,Zach Mem 43 .481 16.4 11.0 1.7 3.0 .8 2.0 .7 1.55
.52 Harden,James Okl 31 .611 17.1 5.5 6.3 3.4 1.1 2.3 1.4 1.74
.30 Conley,Mike Mem 39 .503 13.6 2.7 5.3 2.8 1.3 2.2 .4 .80
.29 Ibaka,Serge Okl 30 .524 12.7 8.1 .3 5.8 .3 .8 4.3 1.02
.24 Mayo,O.J. Mem 32 .485 12.2 4.6 4.0 3.4 .9 1.3 .7 .79
.20 Maynor,Eric Okl 14 .462 10.5 3.7 11.8 3.1 3.1 3.6 .0 1.47
.20 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 13 .578 14.9 5.2 5.5 2.2 1.7 1.1 .6 1.57
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e520
.17 Cook,Daequan Okl 14 .667 22.0 4.8 .0 3.1 .5 1.0 .0 1.29
.11 Collison,Nick Okl 25 .564 9.1 8.1 1.2 6.1 1.7 .9 .6 .48
.06 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 13 .528 10.2 9.3 .0 5.0 1.1 1.7 1.7 .50
.05 Arthur,Darrell Mem 15 .419 11.2 5.5 2.0 6.8 1.9 2.4 1.4 .35
-.02 Battier,Shane Mem 24 .453 5.6 5.5 1.5 2.9 .6 .6 1.2 -.08
-.06 Allen,Tony Mem 28 .425 9.1 3.9 1.9 4.8 1.6 2.7 .5 -.21
-.07 Young,Sam Mem 21 .371 6.1 4.9 .4 2.2 1.1 1.1 .4 -.35
-.08 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 21 .541 7.0 4.5 1.0 1.8 .7 1.8 .4 -.37
-.15 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 30 .442 3.8 9.0 1.3 5.2 .2 2.7 .2 -.53
Eff% Okl .542 - .482 Mem
Reb/48 Okl 43.0 - 41.7 Mem
TO Okl 16.2 - 12.8 Mem
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Sat May 14, 2011 1:43 pm
by Mike G
Thunder 3 , Grizzlies 3
avg score Okl 103.3 - 101.2 Mem
Pythagorean 3.42 - 2.58
eWins 3.21 - 2.79
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.93 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .507 24.2 4.5 8.3 3.5 1.9 4.6 .3 1.96
.78 Randolph,Zach Mem 42 .498 19.0 11.1 1.5 3.0 .7 2.0 .8 1.49
.72 Durant,Kevin Okl 42 .533 20.9 8.2 1.5 2.4 .7 2.0 .6 1.38
.69 Gasol,Marc Mem 40 .547 14.9 10.1 2.3 2.7 1.7 1.7 2.5 1.40
.55 Harden,James Okl 32 .611 16.8 5.7 6.0 3.2 .9 2.2 1.1 1.37
.43 Conley,Mike Mem 40 .487 13.1 2.8 6.5 2.4 1.4 2.1 .3 .87
.34 Mayo,O.J. Mem 33 .506 13.7 4.5 3.8 3.3 1.5 1.5 .5 .84
.31 Ibaka,Serge Okl 29 .539 13.0 8.1 .3 6.0 .2 1.3 3.8 .85
.24 Maynor,Eric Okl 14 .469 13.2 4.4 10.8 2.8 2.8 3.7 .0 1.44
.18 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 12 .531 13.5 4.9 6.6 2.6 1.6 1.0 .5 1.21
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.18 Collison,Nick Okl 24 .569 9.9 8.4 1.0 5.9 1.8 1.0 .8 .62
.14 Arthur,Darrell Mem 14 .433 14.5 5.4 1.9 7.5 2.2 2.6 1.3 .80
.14 Cook,Daequan Okl 14 .600 17.2 6.2 .6 3.2 .5 1.4 .0 .80
.10 Allen,Tony Mem 27 .458 11.2 4.5 1.7 5.1 1.6 2.8 .5 .30
.09 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 12 .476 9.6 10.0 .0 5.8 1.1 1.6 2.1 .62
.03 Battier,Shane Mem 25 .446 5.9 5.8 1.8 2.9 .5 .7 1.0 .09
.00 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 31 .455 4.4 8.9 1.3 4.6 .4 2.2 .6 .01
-.01 Young,Sam Mem 20 .384 7.8 4.3 .4 2.3 1.0 1.0 .3 -.06
-.03 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 20 .533 7.4 4.2 1.2 1.6 .6 2.2 .6 -.13
Eff% - Okl .533 - .485 Mem
Reb - Okl 42.7 - 41.6 Mem
TO - Okl 16.2 - 12.5 Mem
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 3:53 am
by Bobbofitos
Mike have you ever considered capping off a # for blowouts? Game 5 was a blowout which has affected the pyth wins for both teams. Same deal w/ eWins - garbage time is irrelevant, thoughts of simply removing it?
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 11:14 am
by Mike G
Good question(s). After 4 games, the series was as close as could be, Okl +0.5 PPG. The pythag at that time was 2.03-1.97 .
After game 5, pythag was distended to 3.27-1.73 . Okl gained 1.24 pWins while Mem earned -.24 .
The first quarter was even, and Okl took the next 3, by 8 to 11 points each. It's intuitively unacceptable (to me) that the Grizz were really worth -.24 wins. Splitting the first quarter, they should have earned 1/8 of a win right there?
The eWins ledger after 5 games was 2.88-2.12 . The Grizz in fact gained .15 eWins, while Okl took .85, for game 5. That feels about right.
On the season, their SRS were 3.81 and 2.55. This suggests a 1.26 ppg advantage to Okl, and they're averaging +2.0 : Over 6 games, Okl has outscored Mem by 4 points more than expected. Both teams have had their good and bad spells.
Sometimes a blowout is really 'not as close as the final score', and sometimes a tight game blows up at the end. I don't see a reliable and systematic way to adjust for this. The game ends abruptly at 48 minutes, and all good and bad play is then tallied.
An unrelated oddity about the series: Mem has the better ORb% (.312-.305) and the better DRb% (.695-.688) in the series. Okl has more total rebounds, though (274-267).
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Mon May 16, 2011 8:59 am
by Bobbofitos
Mike G wrote:
An unrelated oddity about the series: Mem has the better ORb% (.312-.305) and the better DRb% (.695-.688) in the series. Okl has more total rebounds, though (274-267).
hah, I wonder how often this occurs?
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Mon May 16, 2011 12:56 pm
by Mike G
Thunder 4 , Grizzlies 3
avg score 103.6 - 99.6
Pythagorean wins - 4.40 - 2.60
eWins 3.95 - 3.05
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e509
1.23 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .503 24.0 5.4 9.7 3.3 1.7 4.7 .4 2.39
1.09 Durant,Kevin Okl 41 .556 23.6 8.4 1.6 2.4 .6 2.0 .9 1.92
.94 Randolph,Zach Mem 42 .495 18.3 11.1 1.4 3.0 .7 1.9 .9 1.65
.85 Gasol,Marc Mem 39 .542 14.5 9.9 2.1 2.8 1.5 1.7 2.5 1.58
.77 Harden,James Okl 32 .626 18.2 5.5 5.6 2.7 1.4 2.1 1.1 1.74
.51 Conley,Mike Mem 40 .481 13.2 3.1 6.3 2.4 1.2 2.2 .3 .93
.38 Mayo,O.J. Mem 33 .503 13.2 4.7 3.4 3.4 1.3 1.4 .6 .84
.27 Ibaka,Serge Okl 27 .520 11.0 7.8 .3 6.0 .2 1.2 3.8 .73
.25 Maynor,Eric Okl 13 .471 12.4 4.0 9.5 2.6 2.3 3.0 .0 1.34
.24 Collison,Nick Okl 25 .600 9.1 9.1 1.0 5.2 1.6 .8 1.2 .70
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e509
.21 Vasquez,Greivis Mem 12 .544 14.6 4.6 6.3 2.6 1.3 1.7 .4 1.31
.09 Allen,Tony Mem 27 .463 10.9 4.5 1.6 5.0 2.2 2.6 .6 .23
.07 Arthur,Darrell Mem 15 .431 12.3 4.3 1.4 6.2 1.7 2.1 1.0 .36
.01 Cook,Daequan Okl 13 .529 11.0 5.1 .5 2.6 .4 1.5 .0 .07
.07 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 12 .520 9.4 8.1 .0 5.7 1.2 1.2 1.6 .42
-.05 Battier,Shane Mem 25 .429 4.5 5.6 1.4 2.8 .6 .6 .8 -.15
-.06 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 20 .509 7.2 4.7 1.8 1.9 .8 2.8 .6 -.23
-.07 Young,Sam Mem 18 .378 6.6 4.4 .3 2.4 .9 .9 .3 -.27
-.12 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 31 .460 4.2 8.2 1.1 4.7 .3 2.1 .9 -.28
The average game was 50.86 minutes, so avg eW/508.6 min = 1.00
Team effective shooting% - Okl .541 - .482 Mem
Reb/G - Okl 42.9 - 41.3 Mem
TO/G - Okl 15.7 - 12.1 Mem
Re: 2011 Western Conf. Playoffs, round 2
Posted: Mon May 16, 2011 6:06 pm
by gfarkas
Mike G wrote:An unrelated oddity about the series: Mem has the better ORb% (.312-.305) and the better DRb% (.695-.688) in the series. Okl has more total rebounds, though (274-267).
I would think the first two would always happen together, by definition. If Team A has a higher OReb% than Team B, then they would also have a higher DReb%, by definition.
OReb%_A = OReb_A / (OReb_A + DReb_B)
DReb%_A = DReb_A / (OReb_B + DReb_A)
OReb%_B = OReb_B / (OReb_B + DReb_A)
DReb%_B = DReb_B / (OReb_A + DReb_B)
Therefore, OReb%_A = 1 - DReb%_B, and OReb%_B = 1 - DReb%_A.
So, if OReb%_A > OReb%_B, then it must also be true that
(1 - OReb%_A) < (1 - OReb%_B)
and therefore
(1 - (1 - DReb%_B) ) < (1 - (1 - DReb%_A) )
Working these out to remove the parentheses, we get
DReb%_B < DReb%_A
or, restated,
DReb%_A > DReb%_B
For Team B to have more total rebounds, (OReb_B + DReb_B) > (OReb_A + DReb_A), all you need is for Team A to be missing a lot of shots, thus creating more opportunities for either OReb_A or DReb_B to occur. Since either DReb% occurs at a much higher rate than either OReb%, Team B will rack up more overall rebounds, despite not having the edge in either Rebounding %.