76ers 2012 Hot Start: Analysis via Advanced Stats

[J.E.]

Analysis of 76ers 2012 Hot Start
This topic split off from Power Ranking

In power rating news:
Philadelphia's player RAPM did catch up to the point where even RAPM thinks that they're in the same league as Chicago and Miami(with 50% Wade). Thad Young is 1st in non prior informed RAPM and 5th in the other one. Iguodala is now rated as the best defender, along with Deng.
Vince Carter looks strong in +/- and has played a big role in the Mavs return to respectability. It probably also helped that Kidd was injured

[J.E.]

The 76ers starting unit does almost no damage (compared to their point differential)

Holiday, Jrue - Meeks, Jodie - Iguodala, Andre - Brand, Elton - Hawes, Spencer (unit) +3

Next in minutes are four units with Young

Holiday, Jrue - Williams, Louis - Turner, Evan - Young, Thaddeus - Brand, Elton (unit) +28.02
Holiday, Jrue - Williams, Louis - Turner, Evan - Young, Thaddeus - Vucevic, Nikola (unit) +18.52
Holiday, Jrue - Williams, Louis - Iguodala, Andre - Young, Thaddeus - Hawes, Spencer (unit) +37.39
Williams, Louis - Turner, Evan - Iguodala, Andre - Young, Thaddeus - Hawes, Spencer (unit) +42.55

..... that's insane (and not sustainable for the entire season, but still)

In RAPM-world he's a lock for 6th man of the year and the All Star game. He's should also be in contention for MIP, he's certainly one of the most underpaid players and, according to one RAPM version, early MVP favorite.

I'll be happy if he actually makes the All Star game

[xkonk]

That's the same Thaddeus Young whose stats are down/the same virtually across the board compared to last year, right? What's he doing differently this year? Has his defense improved so much that he's over 2 points better?

[mystic]

Next in minutes are four units with Young

Not only Young, but also Louis Williams.

Holiday, Jrue - Williams, Louis - Turner, Evan - Young, Thaddeus - Brand, Elton (unit) +28.02
Holiday, Jrue - Williams, Louis - Turner, Evan - Young, Thaddeus - Vucevic, Nikola (unit) +18.52
Holiday, Jrue - Williams, Louis - Iguodala, Andre - Young, Thaddeus - Hawes, Spencer (unit) +37.39
Williams, Louis - Turner, Evan - Iguodala, Andre - Young, Thaddeus - Hawes, Spencer (unit) +42.55

In RAPM-world he's a lock for 6th man of the year and the All Star game. He's should also be in contention for MIP, he's certainly one of the most underpaid players and, according to one RAPM version, early MVP favorite.

The Williams+Young combo seems like a good example in which RAPM works better than traditional APM. In APM (Barzilai at bbv.com) Young is at +36 and Williams at -19.5. In your RAPM Williams has +0.7 and Young +3.1. I guess in reality when you put Young on a team in which he is forced to take over more scoring, his numbers would go down. Young doesn't need to handle the ball much, because the 76ers have better players for that job in Holiday, Iguodala and Williams. Young is at least with two of them on the court, which makes it possible for him to just play within his limitations. I wouldn't call Young a MVP candidate at all, especially when we take into account that he just plays 27 minutes per game.

[J.E.]

That's the same Thaddeus Young whose stats are down/the same virtually across the board compared to last year, right? What's he doing differently this year? Has his defense improved so much that he's over 2 points better?

It seems to be mostly on offense, the 76ers score 92.44/100p when he's not on the floor

[mystic]

It seems to be mostly on offense, the 76ers score 92.44/100p when he's not on the floor

When we compare the 76ers with and without Young, we can see that the 76ers are becoming a better shooting team. They are much better at converting 3pt attempts when Young is on the court (43.6% vs. 29.1%), especially the corner 3 becomes deadly with 53% conversation rate while taking more of those. When Young is on the bench, the 76ers have 2-16 for corner threes.

If we are comparing it to last season, we can see that two areas of improvement are the same: less turnovers and better offensive rebounding. But last season the 76ers did not shoot better with Young on the court in comparison to him on the bench. Not quite sure how much influence Young really has on the better shooting performance, especially when we know that he is not a good perimeter shooter.

[EvanZ]

Lou Williams is providing a ton of offense off the bench (actually leading the team in scoring per game). He's the good Monta Ellis. Related to this, I'm now keeping track of "6th man" productivity (just defined as guys with above average possessions and below average GS):

http://thecity2.com/6th-man/

[J.E.]

That's the same Thaddeus Young whose stats are down/the same virtually across the board compared to last year, right? What's he doing differently this year? Has his defense improved so much that he's over 2 points better?

I looked it up. That's a weird statement to make for Young.

0.3 less PPG, TS% is almost the same, Steals are up 33%, Blocks are up 50%, TO% down by 50%. What's bothering you? The DReb%? ..
His difference between ORtg and DRtg went from 6 last year to 21 this year

[xkonk]

0.3 less PPG, TS% is almost the same, Steals are up 33%, Blocks are up 50%, TO% down by 50%. What's bothering you? The DReb%? ..
His difference between ORtg and DRtg went from 6 last year to 21 this year

His TS and eFG are down 10/16 points, rebounding is down, assists are down, usage is down (if that's something one gives credit for, I know RAPM is mute on the subject). Yes, his steals, blocks, and turnovers have improved but it isn't obvious (to me) that's enough to pump his rating up over 2 points. That's all. So I was asking if anyone's been watching to see what he's improved at. Is his defense really that much better, or is it a team thing? It looks like everyone on the squad is at a career best for defensive rating, most by a good margin.

[mystic]

xkonk, you have to take into account that the whole league is down in eFG% and TS%. Last season the league average for both was 49.8% respective 54.1%, in this season so far it is 48.0% and 52.1%. In comparison to the league average Young's scoring efficiency increased, not decreased. Additional to that his better turnover rate (6.5 in this season vs. 9.0 last season) is in comparison to the league average even more impressive, because the league became worse from 11.1 last season to 12.0 in this season. Overall his offensive efficiency in comparison to the league became better.
His defense improved, his steals and blocks are up. The only thing down is his defensive rebounding, BUT the 76ers are still rebounding better on the defensive end with him on the court than without him, because he still is blocking out his man and is helping his team to be in a better defensive rebounding position. His teammates DRB% are up, they just get those rebounds easier.

I measure out Young with +1.8 in comparison to the +0.89 from last season. His boxscore stats in comparison to the league average are better than last season. And that's the important thing here. The boxscore stats have to be put into a context and the league average has to be taken into account.

The individual DRtg is influenced by the Team DRtg heavily. And in the end that is also a product of the current league averages. If we want to compare those individual DRtg for different seasons in a useful way, we have to make an adjustment.
When we look at the individual ORtg and DRtg, Young last season was combined 4.4 points better than the team, in this season he is 4.7 points better than the team. We see also an increase in his boxscore based stats.

That leaves the question whether we should really assume that Young is the reason for the 76ers better perimeter shooting or whether there is luck involved. We can look at the differences in ORtg when we assume the 76ers are always converting their 3pt attempts at their average rate (37.4% 3P%). That would give us -3.6 points per 100 possession for the time with Young on the court and +4.3 without Young. 7.9 points of the difference in ORtg between with and without Young are explained by 3pt shooting alone.
When we look at the 76ers, we can see that Holiday, Meeks and Iguodala combined for 53 of 134 from behind the arc (39.6%). The only way to improve that is by replacing Holiday with Lou Williams, then it becomes 55 of 136 (40.4%). As we can see the improvement is marginal. The starting lineup has already 3 of the Top4 3pt shooters of the 76ers. Thus, we can not claim that with Young in the lineup the 76ers can use better 3pt shooters to improve their 3pt shooting. There has to be a different explanation. That might be: the opponent is trading perimeter defense for interior defense when Young is in (testable) or Young somehow is helping the spacing at the perimeter (which is unlikely given his skill set) or Young is playing against more tired opponents as sub, thus the perimeter defense becomes worse (worse at rotating, worse at closing out?) or the 76ers are getting lucky with their shots.
Personally I suspect the combination of the last two to be the reason for this. The opponent's players are getting more tired over time, while RAPM is still treating them as the same players, and the 76ers are indeed getting more lucky with their shots.

We still see an improvement for Young in comparison to the league average, but I think the heavily improved +/- numbers have mostly not much to do with Young. Last season Young had +0.8 offensively and +1.3 defensively in non-prior informed RAPM, the prior informed was +0.5 offensively and +1.8 defensively, that is really good. Especially when Young played PF, the 76ers were clearly better as their opponents (+9). Given his production and his impact I agree with J.E. that Young is underpaid or a bargain for the 76ers. Young is one of the very reasons that the 76ers are playing good basketball. Probably not as good as their scoring margin suggest right now, but overall they are clearly a better team with him on the court.

[Mike G]

Thad Young ranks 89th on my 'improved' list, just ahead of Elton Brand, and well behind 4 teammates (Hawes, Turner, Williams, Iguodala).
Iggy seems to be starting at SF and maybe playing some G later. Turner is apparently SF mostly, as well.
Brand is the starting PF, and he rebounds about 64% better than Young. Both are getting 27 mpg.
If Young should get more minutes, who should get less?

[mystic]

If Young should get more minutes, who should get less?

Maybe I have overlooked something here, but who is arguing that Young should get more minutes?

The 76ers are giving PF minutes to Brand and Young, that is fine. Maybe a little bit less Brand at PF and a bit more Young, but at C they have also Hawes and Vucevic, both are deserving their minutes so far. That leaves not much room here. The 76ers with the much improved Hawes have a pretty good big rotation. I wouldn't change much here.

Young shouldn't get minutes as SF unless the 76ers are signing a shooting big with 3pt range. Young doesn't have the skillset to play SF, he lacks the shooting and ballhandling skills to do that. Iguodala and Turner are better choices at SF.

[Mike G]

J.E. wrote:

Thad Young is 1st in non prior informed RAPM and 5th in the other one...
In RAPM-world he's a lock for 6th man of the year and the All Star game. He's should also be in contention for MIP, he's certainly one of the most underpaid players and, according to one RAPM version, early MVP favorite...
His difference between ORtg and DRtg went from 6 last year to 21 this year...

And this seems to describe someone who should play more than 27 mpg.

Hawes, Battie, and Vucevic have totaled 38.8 mpg this year, so I'm guessing Brand is defacto C for about 1/3 of his minutes. This may make Young the PF, but he doesn't rebound like one -- nor even as well as Evans or Iguodala.

Last year, they had also Speights at PF, and Brand went 35 mpg.

[mystic]

And this seems to describe someone who should play more than 27 mpg.

Given the fact that I know that J.E. is german, and german males are usually exactly saying what they mean, I can't see that J.E. suggested more minutes for Young. But maybe I'm wrong about that.

Hawes, Battie, and Vucevic have totaled 38.8 mpg this year, so I'm guessing Brand is defacto C for about 1/3 of his minutes. This may make Young the PF, but he doesn't rebound like one -- nor even as well as Evans or Iguodala.

Last year, they had also Speights at PF, and Brand went 35 mpg.

Not quite sure what the point of that is at all, but 82games.com has the minutes for each player on different positions. Young gets basically all of his minutes now at PF. Brand gets 18, Brackins gets 3, that makes overall 48 minutes at PF.
Young doesn't rebound on defense like a PF in terms of actually grabbing the board, but he is still doing the work against the opponents PF. His teammates at other positions are getting the ball. That is good, because other players are better handling the ball and at making the outlet pass. On the offensive end he rebounds like a PF.

In order to understand modern basketball better, we need to get rid of the ideas based on old, traditional positions and their supposed to be boxscore stats.

[Mike G]

OK, no one is arguing that anyone else is arguing for more minutes for Young. I merely asked a question: should he get more minutes?

But, the last time a player was named (not voted by fans) to the All-Star game, with 27 mpg or less in the season, was Kareem in 1989, as a farewell gesture perhaps.
Before that, Bob Lanier in 1982.
These were players with Hall of Fame careers behind them, not someone who doesn't even start for his team.

Young gets basically all of his minutes now at PF. Brand gets 18, Brackins gets 3, that makes overall 48 minutes at PF.

Brackins has 16 minutes in 12 games, 1.33 minutes per game.

Now that I've looked closely at this lineup, I think the Sixers' success is rather fragile. Hawes is their only real C, and he's only played half their minutes. After him, Brand is their only known quantity.
If Hawes should be lost for the season, they'd have to trade one or two good SF/G types for a serviceable Big.