Kobe vs. Michael

[schtevie]

Pending calibration of quarter-based and PbP xRAPM, minute-weighted average +/- for comparable player ages:

Michael Jordan 4.6

Kobe Bryant 4.5.

Cue videotape: http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/08/ ... break-606/

[Mike G]

Is this just for regular seasons?

[glwall3]

Using WinShares from Basketball-Reference including Postseason and James Brocato's Estimated Imapct including Postseason from shutupandjam.net, Michael Jordan was clearly better at every age than Kobe Bryant.

Player Season Age G MP WS EI Player Season Age G MP WS EI
Kobe Bryant 1996-97 18 71 1103 1.9 1.1
Kobe Bryant 1997-98 ? 19 79 2056 6.5 6.1
Kobe Bryant 1998-99 20 50 1896 5.6 6.4
Kobe Bryant 1999-00 ? 21 66 2524 12.7 14.4 Michael Jordan 1984-85 ? 21 82 3144 14.7 18.4
Kobe Bryant 2000-01 ? 22 68 2783 15.1 16.6 Michael Jordan 1985-86 ? 22 18 451 2 2.7
Kobe Bryant 2001-02 ? 23 80 3063 15.3 18.2 Michael Jordan 1986-87 ? 23 82 3281 17.3 21.8
Kobe Bryant 2002-03 ? 24 82 3401 16.4 19.9 Michael Jordan 1987-88 ? 24 82 3311 23.3 28.4
Kobe Bryant 2003-04 ? 25 65 2447 13.6 15.6 Michael Jordan 1988-89 ? 25 81 3255 23.8 31.3
Kobe Bryant 2004-05 ? 26 66 2689 8.1 11.6 Michael Jordan 1989-90 ? 26 82 3197 23 28.8
Kobe Bryant 2005-06 ? 27 80 3277 15.9 19.5 Michael Jordan 1990-91 ? 27 82 3034 25.1 30.8
Kobe Bryant 2006-07 ? 28 77 3140 13.5 16.8 Michael Jordan 1991-92 ? 28 80 3102 21.8 28.3
Kobe Bryant 2007-08 ? 29 82 3192 17 22.1 Michael Jordan 1992-93 ? 29 78 3067 21.6 27.7
Kobe Bryant 2008-09 ? 30 82 2960 17.4 21.6
Kobe Bryant 2009-10 ? 31 73 2835 13 17.5 Michael Jordan 1994-95 31 17 668 3.6 5.4
Kobe Bryant 2010-11 ? 32 82 2779 11 14.6 Michael Jordan 1995-96 ? 32 82 3090 25.1 27.7
Kobe Bryant 2011-12 ? 33 58 2232 7.6 10.0 Michael Jordan 1996-97 ? 33 82 3106 22.2 25.3
Kobe Bryant 2012-13 ? 34 78 3013 10.9 13.5 Michael Jordan 1997-98 ? 34 82 3181 20.6 21.9
Kobe Bryant 2013-14 ? 35 6 177 -0.4


Michael Jordan 2001-02 ? 38 60 2093 3.3 7.4
Michael Jordan 2002-03 ? 39 82 3031 6.2 8.4

[Mike G]

These WS and EI (above) seem to be annual sums, PO + RS.
Here they are as cumulative totals. I've thrown in eWins for good measure:

Code: Select all

Age        - - Jordan - - -        - - - Kobe - - -
yrs        WS     EI     eW         WS     EI     eW
18                                  1.9    1.1    1.4
19                                   8      7      6
20                                  14     14     13

21         15     18     16         27     28     24
22         17     21     18         42     45     39
23         34     43     38         57     63     55
24         57     71     61         74     83     72
25         81    103     87         87     98     86

26        104    131    111         95    110     96
27        129    162    135        111    129    113
28        151    191    158        125    146    127
29        173    218    180        142    168    144
30        173    218    180        159    190    161

age        WS     EI     eW         WS     EI     eW
31        176    224    185        172    207    175
32        201    251    207        183    222    189
33        224    277    229        191    232    198
34        244    299    249        202    246    208
35        244    299    249        201    246    208

36        244    299    249                
37        244    299    249                
38        247    306    257                
39        254    314    267                

It would be interesting to weigh PO by more than RS. Kobe has 40 more PO games, and Jordan has 11.5 more WS.
http://bkref.com/tiny/4f7v3
Starting 3 years later (and missing most of a year) Jordan passes Kobe in WS at age 26; in EI and eW by 25.

[Mike G]

In (approximate) eWins rate (1.00 per 484 min = avg), Jordan is just ahead of some others in regular seasons.
In playoffs, it's not close.

Code: Select all

seasons   e484        playoffs  e484
Jordan    2.51        Jordan    2.70
LeBron    2.47 *      Mikan     2.50
Wilt      2.45        LeBron    2.41 *
Shaq      2.38        Olajuwon  2.38
Mikan     2.32        Shaq      2.29
Duncan    2.27 *      Duncan    2.14 *
Robinson  2.26        Wilt      2.10
Malone    2.20        Kareem    2.02
Kareem    2.17        Robinson  2.01
Olajuwon  2.15        Dwight    2.00 *

Pettit    2.09        Barkley   1.99
Bird      2.07        West      1.95
Wade      2.05 *      Westbrook 1.94 *
Barkley   2.02        Magic     1.93
Garnett   2.01 *      Durant    1.93 *
Durant    2.00 *      Malone    1.93
Magic     1.98        McGrady   1.92
Paul      1.98 *      Nowitzki  1.89 *
Griffin   1.95 *      Bird      1.88
Yao       1.94        Russell   1.88

Nowitzki  1.94 *      Baylor    1.87
Baylor    1.94        Paul      1.85 *
Love      1.93 *      Garnett   1.82 *
West      1.90        Pettit    1.80
Dwight    1.89 *      Wade      1.80 *
Kobe      1.89 *      Iverson   1.76
Ewing     1.87        Schayes   1.75
Johnston  1.87        Kobe      1.74 *
Oscar     1.85        Ewing     1.73
Russell   1.80        Erving    1.72

* - Active players, rates likely to drop before they're done.

What possibly explains how Kobe and Jordan could be equivalent contributors in +/- ?
- Kobe brought out the best in his teammates, moreso than Jordan?
- Kobe had more unmeasured contributions? better defensively?