Rookies 2014-15

[Mike G]

Rookies ranked by eWins projected to the end of the season

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e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.4   Nerlens Noel    Phl   31  .432    8.7   8.0   2.5   3.3   2.4   2.4  2.4   .83
3.0   Nikola Mirotic  Chi   16  .773   15.3  11.0   1.5   4.2    .7   2.2   .6  1.11
3.0   Shabazz Napier  Mia   17  .789   12.5   6.1   6.1   3.9   3.2   2.6   .0  1.03
2.7 Kos. Papanikolaou Hou   21  .524   10.1   5.7   6.7   2.8   2.4   3.6   .4   .75
2.7   K.J. McDaniels  Phl   20  .600   16.0   3.0   1.4   3.8    .4   1.7  2.1   .78

2.2   Elfrid Payton   Orl   28  .393    8.5   4.6   8.4   5.8    .4   4.0   .0   .47
2.2   Jabari Parker   Mil   34  .400   11.1   9.6    .4   1.4   1.1   3.0   .0   .38
1.8   Marcus Smart    Bos   21  .404    8.4   5.0   2.9   2.7   2.7   1.1   .5   .48
1.5   Jusuf Nurkic    Den    9  .385   11.8  17.2   1.3  11.3    .0   6.3  2.2   .99
1.4   James Ennis     Mia   10  .765   17.4   6.3   1.3   5.3    .0   1.1   .0   .83

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.3   Andrew Wiggins  Min   24  .400   10.3   7.1   1.0   5.1   2.6   4.1  1.0   .32
1.3   Dante Exum      Uta   16  .600   13.3   1.8   3.1   3.2   1.6   2.6  1.1   .47
0.9   Rodney Hood     Uta   18  .353    6.8   6.2   2.3   2.8    .5    .9  1.0   .31
0.8   Jordan Clarkson LAL   12  .429   10.2   5.6   2.4   4.3   2.2   1.4   .0   .44
0.7  Bojan Bogdanovic Brk   26  .457    9.9   2.0   2.6   3.4   1.0   1.4   .5   .16
0.5   Doug McDermott  Chi   18  .438    8.8   4.0   1.4   3.2    .6    .7   .6   .18

Nobody else over 0.1
Total is about 30 eWins for the year; but this number always builds up over the season.

[Mike G]

At 8% of the season, rookies still sum to about 30 projected eWins; but the ranking has changed.

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e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
3.8   Jabari Parker  Mil   30  .440   13.8   7.9    .8   1.6   2.3   .2   .75
2.9   Elfrid Payton  Orl   30  .368    8.3   4.8   6.6   1.9   3.7   .5   .56
2.5 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk   27  .577   14.2   3.7   1.9   1.1   1.8   .2   .55
2.4   Nerlens Noel   Phl   28  .439    8.0   7.5   2.9   2.1   2.9  2.4   .71
2.2 Kos Papanikolaou Hou   25  .381    5.9   7.0   5.6   1.8   3.1   .6   .51

2.1   Dante Exum     Uta   19  .580   11.7   2.7   5.1   1.0   1.5   .5   .65
2.1   K.J. McDaniels Phl   24  .551   12.6   3.2   1.5   1.0   2.5  2.5   .52
1.7   Andrew Wiggins Min   27  .466   11.6   4.9   1.3   1.6   2.3   .7   .38
1.6   Aaron Gordon   Orl   16  .592   12.9   6.6    .7    .6   2.4  1.4   .58
1.5   Jusuf Nurkic   Den   11  .510   13.8  13.2   1.6    .6   5.2  2.1   .97

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.2   Nikola Mirotic Chi   14  .538    9.4   8.1   2.4    .7   2.0   .6   .50
1.0   Rodney Hood    Uta   15  .369    6.8   7.9   2.1   1.1    .7   .7   .46
0.9   Doug McDermott Chi   15  .625   13.8   4.1    .7    .3   1.3   .3   .37
0.9   Shabazz Napier Mia   21  .460    6.3   4.5   4.2   2.0   2.0   .2   .24
0.9   Marcus Smart   Bos   20  .436    9.4   4.6   1.8   2.0   2.0   .7   .30

0.8   Zach LaVine    Min   13  .563    8.3   5.5   5.0   1.7   1.8   .9   .70
0.6   Kyle Anderson  SAS   31  .211    2.9   9.5   4.2   2.2    .0   .0   .59
0.6 Cleanthony Early NYK   10  .586   14.5   5.2   1.4    .8   1.6   .0   .62
0.4  Jordan Clarkson LAL   10  .429    9.0   4.7   2.2   1.9   1.3   .0   .29
0.4   James Ennis    Mia   10  .487    8.4   6.6   1.5    .0    .5   .0   .21

Not one rookie seems to be an above-avg NBA player.

[Mike G]

Season about 12% over, rookies project to less than 28 eWins. About 18 of these are in the East.

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e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
3.7   Jabari Parker  Mil   29  .447   14.1   7.4   1.2   1.5   2.2   .3   .76
2.3   Elfrid Payton  Orl   26  .342    7.2   5.1   6.9   1.8   3.3   .4   .52
2.0 Kos Papanikolaou Hou   23  .374    7.0   6.4   5.3   1.6   3.0   .7   .51
1.9   Aaron Gordon   Orl   15  .634   14.1   6.9   1.3    .6   2.2  1.2   .74
1.7   Andrew Wiggins Min   27  .511   13.2   4.9   1.0   1.2   2.8   .6   .38

1.7   Nerlens Noel   Phl   28  .412    8.0   7.9   2.0   2.1   3.8  2.1   .46
1.6   K.J. McDaniels Phl   23  .542   12.3   3.7   1.4   1.3   2.8  2.2   .42
1.4   Jusuf Nurkic   Den   10  .478   14.1  13.5   1.8    .5   4.9  1.9  1.07
1.1   Dante Exum     Uta   19  .521    9.7   3.0   4.1   1.0   1.9   .6   .35
1.1 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk   29  .539   11.7   3.4   1.4    .8   1.5   .1   .22

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.9   Shabazz Napier Mia   21  .517    7.8   5.1   3.9   1.5   2.6   .2   .27
0.9   Nikola Mirotic Chi   11  .492    8.8   7.9   2.1    .9   2.0  1.2   .48
0.8  Jordan Clarkson LAL   12  .506   11.5   4.1   1.6   1.8   1.2   .3   .42
0.7   Rodney Hood    Uta   15  .369    7.5   8.1   2.1   1.1    .7   .7   .51
0.7   Joe Harris     Cle   11  .676   12.9   4.7   3.1   1.0   2.4   .0   .50

[Crow]

Nurkic. When in doubt or not facing great choices, take reliable value, in this case rebounds.

[Mike G]

Well, he's only played 67 minutes. Of 27 rookies with at least 60 min., he's 4th in PER (12.2), 20th in ws/48 (.014), 19th in BPM (-3.9).

These discrepancies will surely diminish with larger samples, but it's kind of fascinating at this stage.

[Crow]

(Data jumbled for me here too. Last column was for this season. Assumed same in other thread.)

[DSMok1]

Here is the current list of players with >75 minutes from Basketball Reference: http://bkref.com/tiny/qEVy3

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╔═════╦══════════════════════╦══════╦══════╦════╦═════╦═════╦══════╦═══════╦═══════╦══════╦══════╦══════╦════════╦═══════╦═══════╦═══════╦══════╗
║ Rk  ║       Player         ║ Age  ║ Tm   ║ G  ║ GS  ║ MP  ║ PER  ║ ORtg  ║ DRtg  ║ OWS  ║ DWS  ║ WS   ║ WS/48  ║ OBPM  ║ DBPM  ║ BPM   ║ VORP ║
╠═════╬══════════════════════╬══════╬══════╬════╬═════╬═════╬══════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╬══════╬══════╬════════╬═══════╬═══════╬═══════╬══════╣
║   1 ║ Bojan Bogdanovic     ║   25 ║ BRK  ║ 10 ║  10 ║ 305 ║ 11.3 ║   110 ║   112 ║ 0.3  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.5  ║ 0.072  ║ 0.9   ║ -1    ║ 0     ║ 1.2  ║
║   2 ║ Kostas Papanikolaou  ║   24 ║ HOU  ║ 11 ║   1 ║ 257 ║ 7.7  ║    86 ║    98 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.5  ║ 0.2  ║ 0.036  ║ -2.6  ║ 3     ║ 0.3   ║ 1.1  ║
║   3 ║ James Ennis          ║   24 ║ MIA  ║ 11 ║   1 ║ 143 ║ 14.1 ║   126 ║   106 ║ 0.3  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.5  ║ 0.152  ║ 0.3   ║ -0.3  ║ 0     ║ 0.5  ║
║   4 ║ Aaron Gordon         ║   19 ║ ORL  ║ 11 ║   0 ║ 165 ║ 15.3 ║   110 ║   104 ║ 0.2  ║ 0.2  ║ 0.4  ║ 0.127  ║ -1.1  ║ 0.7   ║ -0.4  ║ 0.4  ║
║   5 ║ Joe Ingles           ║   27 ║ UTA  ║ 12 ║   0 ║ 195 ║ 8.8  ║   103 ║   112 ║ 0.1  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.029  ║ -0.6  ║ -0.2  ║ -0.7  ║ 0.4  ║
║   6 ║ P.J. Hairston        ║   22 ║ CHO  ║  8 ║   2 ║ 111 ║ 10.9 ║   104 ║   109 ║ 0.1  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.2  ║ 0.068  ║ 0.4   ║ -1    ║ -0.6  ║ 0.3  ║
║   7 ║ Dante Exum           ║   19 ║ UTA  ║ 12 ║   0 ║ 224 ║ 12.2 ║   110 ║   114 ║ 0.3  ║ 0    ║ 0.3  ║ 0.064  ║ 0.6   ║ -2.1  ║ -1.5  ║ 0.2  ║
║   8 ║ Nikola Mirotic       ║   23 ║ CHI  ║ 11 ║   0 ║ 133 ║ 10.2 ║   100 ║   100 ║ 0    ║ 0.2  ║ 0.3  ║ 0.099  ║ -2.2  ║ 0.8   ║ -1.4  ║ 0.2  ║
║   9 ║ Shabazz Napier       ║   23 ║ MIA  ║ 11 ║   0 ║ 227 ║ 8.9  ║    91 ║   106 ║ -0.2 ║ 0.2  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.017  ║ -2.1  ║ 0.5   ║ -1.6  ║ 0.2  ║
║  10 ║ Marcus Smart         ║   20 ║ BOS  ║  5 ║   0 ║ 102 ║ 9.1  ║    92 ║   111 ║ -0.1 ║ 0    ║ 0    ║ 0.007  ║ -0.2  ║ -0.8  ║ -1.1  ║ 0.2  ║
║  11 ║ Joe Harris           ║   23 ║ CLE  ║  7 ║   0 ║  92 ║ 8.8  ║   109 ║   113 ║ 0.1  ║ 0    ║ 0.1  ║ 0.057  ║ 0.2   ║ -1.9  ║ -1.7  ║ 0.1  ║
║  12 ║ Jordan Clarkson      ║   22 ║ LAL  ║  9 ║   0 ║ 110 ║ 13.9 ║   110 ║   117 ║ 0.1  ║ 0    ║ 0.1  ║ 0.05   ║ 0.2   ║ -2.7  ║ -2.5  ║ -0.1 ║
║  13 ║ Nik Stauskas         ║   21 ║ SAC  ║ 11 ║   0 ║ 172 ║ 3.7  ║    95 ║   112 ║ 0    ║ 0    ║ 0    ║ 0.007  ║ -1.4  ║ -1.3  ║ -2.8  ║ -0.2 ║
║  14 ║ Rodney Hood          ║   22 ║ UTA  ║  6 ║   0 ║  91 ║ 8.2  ║    88 ║   109 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.1  ║ 0    ║ 0.014  ║ -2.9  ║ -0.7  ║ -3.6  ║ -0.3 ║
║  15 ║ K.J. McDaniels       ║   21 ║ PHI  ║ 10 ║   1 ║ 231 ║ 10.7 ║    92 ║   107 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.2  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.012  ║ -3.7  ║ 0.8   ║ -3    ║ -0.5 ║
║  16 ║ Elfrid Payton        ║   20 ║ ORL  ║ 12 ║  10 ║ 297 ║ 8.2  ║    84 ║   104 ║ -0.5 ║ 0.4  ║ -0.1 ║ 0.021  ║ -4.5  ║ 1.5   ║ -2.9  ║ -0.5 ║
║  17 ║ Damjan Rudez         ║   28 ║ IND  ║ 11 ║   0 ║ 219 ║ 5.4  ║   101 ║   108 ║ 0.1  ║ 0.2  ║ 0.2  ║ 0.05   ║ -2.4  ║ -0.8  ║ -3.2  ║ -0.5 ║
║  18 ║ Andrew Wiggins       ║   19 ║ MIN  ║  9 ║   9 ║ 242 ║ 10   ║    94 ║   114 ║ -0.1 ║ 0    ║ -0.1 ║ 0.014  ║ -2.1  ║ -0.8  ║ -3    ║ -0.5 ║
║  19 ║ Tarik Black          ║   23 ║ HOU  ║  9 ║   1 ║ 126 ║ 8.1  ║   100 ║   101 ║ 0    ║ 0.2  ║ 0.2  ║ 0.088  ║ -4    ║ -0.8  ║ -4.8  ║ -0.7 ║
║  20 ║ Doug McDermott       ║   23 ║ CHI  ║ 11 ║   0 ║ 138 ║ 7.6  ║    92 ║   107 ║ -0.1 ║ 0.1  ║ 0.1  ║ 0.022  ║ -2.8  ║ -1.8  ║ -4.7  ║ -0.7 ║
║  21 ║ Kyle Anderson        ║   21 ║ SAS  ║  5 ║   0 ║  77 ║ -1.8 ║    41 ║    97 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.2  ║ -0.2 ║ 0.115  ║ -10.4 ║ 3.5   ║ -6.9  ║ -0.8 ║
║  22 ║ Jabari Parker        ║   19 ║ MIL  ║ 11 ║  11 ║ 315 ║ 11.7 ║    93 ║   102 ║ -0.2 ║ 0.5  ║ 0.3  ║ 0.051  ║ -3.2  ║ -0.1  ║ -3.3  ║ -0.8 ║
║  23 ║ Zach LaVine          ║   19 ║ MIN  ║  6 ║   4 ║ 123 ║ 5.1  ║    82 ║   115 ║ -0.2 ║ 0    ║ -0.2 ║ 0.087  ║ -4.1  ║ -1.1  ║ -5.2  ║ -0.9 ║
║  24 ║ Nerlens Noel         ║   20 ║ PHI  ║  8 ║   5 ║ 219 ║ 7.6  ║    72 ║   103 ║ -0.6 ║ 0.3  ║ -0.3 ║ 0.062  ║ -7.8  ║ 3.2   ║ -4.6  ║ -1.2 ║
║  25 ║ Travis Wear          ║   24 ║ NYK  ║  9 ║   0 ║  85 ║ 1.3  ║    76 ║   118 ║ -0.2 ║ 0    ║ -0.3 ║ 0.147  ║ -7.4  ║ -3.4  ║ -10.8 ║ -1.3 ║
║  26 ║ JaKarr Sampson       ║   21 ║ PHI  ║  9 ║   2 ║ 101 ║ 1.4  ║    64 ║   109 ║ -0.3 ║ 0.1  ║ -0.2 ║ 0.11   ║ -9.3  ║ 0.2   ║ -9    ║ -1.5 ║
╚═════╩══════════════════════╩══════╩══════╩════╩═════╩═════╩══════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╩══════╩══════╩════════╩═══════╩═══════╩═══════╩══════╝

[/size]

[Mike G]

Each metric -- PER, ws/48, and BPM -- has only 1 or 2 rookies above avg. But they aren't the same players.

Note, too: All WS/48 appear to be positive. Travis Wear shows as .147, when in fact he's -.147 on the team page and his player page. I've notified b-r.com of this issue.

[Mike G]

With the season at 19%, rookies have surged to a pace of 35 eWins on the year. About 2/3 in the East.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.5   Jabari Parker   Mil   30  .483   14.6   7.7   1.5   1.5   1.8   .4   .90
3.1   Nikola Mirotic  Chi   16  .562   13.6   9.5   2.2    .9   1.7  1.5  1.12
2.6   Elfrid Payton   Orl   24  .408    9.5   4.9   6.6   1.9   3.7   .3   .64
2.4 Kos. Papanikolaou Hou   25  .418    8.3   6.3   5.1   1.3   3.2   .8   .56
2.4   Nerlens Noel    Phl   30  .463    8.5   7.9   1.7   2.0   2.6  1.5   .54

2.1   Andrew Wiggins  Min   30  .474   12.8   5.3   1.2   1.5   3.1   .6   .41
2.1   K.J. McDaniels  Phl   23  .561   13.5   3.9   1.2   1.1   2.5  1.7   .52
2.0   Shabazz Napier  Mia   23  .598   12.1   4.7   3.8   1.5   3.5   .1   .51
1.4   James Ennis     Mia   14  .519    9.0   7.1   2.2   1.2    .5   .8   .61
1.4   Tarik Black     Hou   17  .504    9.1  11.6    .6    .6   2.0   .3   .55

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.3   Zach LaVine     Min   21  .509   12.4   4.0   4.1   1.1   3.5   .3   .47
1.2   Aaron Gordon    Orl   15  .634   14.1   7.1   1.3    .6   2.4  1.3   .77
1.1   Dante Exum      Uta   18  .484    8.9   3.3   4.4    .9   1.7   .4   .34
1.0   Jusuf Nurkic    Den    9  .438   13.0  13.4   2.3    .9   4.9  2.6  1.19
0.9  Bojan Bogdanovic Brk   30  .531   11.4   3.3   1.1    .6   1.3   .1   .17

0.6  Jordan Clarkson  LAL   12  .515   12.3   4.2   1.7   1.7   1.2   .3   .50
0.5 Shay. Whittington Ind    7  .667   16.8  12.1   3.5   2.3   2.5  1.1  1.75
0.5   Rodney Hood     Uta   15  .369    7.8   8.2   2.1   1.1    .7   .7   .55
0.5   P.J. Hairston   Cha   15  .491   12.2   4.2   1.4    .2   2.0   .8   .31
0.5   Marcus Smart    Bos   20  .436   10.0   4.6   1.8   2.0   2.1   .7   .34

[Crow]

Noel still low amongst rookies on ws/48 and VORP. Very low on BPM. http://bkref.com/tiny/V7i4a BPM Team adjustment probably not helping his rating and maybe the accuracy of the rating. Wait n see what RPM estimates.

On Mike's top 10, only Papanikolaou, Mirotic, Ennis and Napier are rated above -3 on BPM.

[Mike G]

Utilizing this page -- http://bkref.com/tiny/Y7bV2
We see the top individual game performances by rookies this year, according to Game Score. They range from 9.1 up to 23.4 -- 29 pts, 5 reb, 4 stl, 1 TO by Andrew Wiggins on 11-22; matched by his teammate Zach Levine on 11-28, in his outburst of 28 pts and 5 ast.
These games only rank in the 180s among all players to date, in GmSc.

Are rookies stepping it up as the year progresses? From the top 100 rookie games by Minutes and by GmSc, entries per week in each:

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week of   Min>29   GmSc>9
26-Oct      9        8  (short week)
2-Nov      12       12
9-Nov      10       11
16-Nov     14       20
23-Nov     13       16
30-Nov     21       18
7-Dec      21       15

It looks as if rookies' modest uptick in 'big games' is not so much that they're more productive, but that they've just gotten more minutes.

[Mike G]

At .294 of the season, rookies project to 33 eWins.

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e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.8   Jabari Parker   Mil   30  .520   15.3   7.2   2.0   2.1   1.5   2.5   .2   .95
3.7   Nikola Mirotic  Chi   18  .548   13.9  10.1   2.2   4.7    .7   1.8  1.3  1.22
2.4   K.J. McDaniels  Phl   25  .500   12.3   5.3   1.3   3.4   1.4   2.6  2.2   .59
2.3   Nerlens Noel    Phl   30  .466    8.9   7.6   1.7   3.6   2.0   2.9  1.7   .51
2.2   Andrew Wiggins  Min   31  .461   13.2   4.8   1.4   2.8   1.2   2.7   .4   .43

2.2   Elfrid Payton   Orl   24  .399    8.8   4.9   6.1   3.2   1.9   3.3   .2   .53
2.1  Kos Papanikolaou Hou   26  .463    9.3   5.9   4.8   3.3   1.2   2.7   .7   .58
1.9   Tarik Black     Hou   17  .536   10.0  11.7    .9   5.0    .4   1.9   .2   .72
1.2   Zach LaVine     Min   25  .466   11.5   3.7   4.0   3.3   1.0   3.4   .2   .33
1.1  Bojan Bogdanovic Brk   29  .529   11.5   3.8   1.1   1.9    .8   1.5   .2   .22

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.0   Jusuf Nurkic    Den   10  .426   12.6  12.8   1.8   9.0   1.3   4.0  2.7  1.21
0.9   James Ennis     Mia   14  .513    8.0   6.0   1.8   3.0   1.2    .3   .6   .41
0.8   Aaron Gordon    Orl   15  .634   13.8   6.8   1.2   3.0    .6   2.3  1.3   .74
0.7   Cory Jefferson  Brk   10  .488   11.4   8.1   1.1   2.9    .3    .6  1.5   .82
0.7   Marcus Smart    Bos   16  .472   10.9   4.3   2.8   3.6   1.8   1.4   .5   .53

0.6   Kyle Anderson   SAS   13  .390    6.6   6.9   2.9   2.3    .9    .6   .9   .45
0.6   Shabazz Napier  Mia   21  .555    9.6   3.9   3.1   2.7   1.4   2.8   .1   .16
0.5   P.J. Hairston   Cha   15  .447   10.8   4.3   1.3   3.6    .9   1.2   .7   .31
0.4  Shay Whittington Ind    5  .571   13.9   9.8   1.8   2.6   2.6   1.4   .6  1.29
0.4   Jordan Clarkson LAL   11  .513   12.1   3.7   2.1   2.3   1.4   1.5   .2   .44

Per36 rates are adjusted for mpg, %starter, and other factors. Jusuf Nurkic has raw PF of 10.3/36 min.
Just 14 others have had NBA seasons with >100 minutes and >10 PF/36, since 1952 -- http://bkref.com/tiny/2l1V8

Of these, Nurkic has the best PER (12.4) since 1953; best Reb%, Ast% and Blk%, 2nd best Stl% since '71; and the best BPM (-2.9)
He leads the Nuggets in all Reb%, in FTr (.547), TO% (20.2), FTA/100 and Usg% (26.9). Best DBPM and worst OBPM.

[Mike G]

Last year at this time, rookies were projecting to right around 40 eWins; a late surge put them at 50.
From last year's rookies thread, I have added a VORP column. It's just the sum of all VORP > 0 for the year. --

Code: Select all

year    WS    WS/48   PER   VORP    top rookies
2000   69.1   .076   14.0          Brand, Francis, Szczerbiak, A Miller, Posey, Marion
2001   42.3   .053   11.9    5.2   M Miller, Mo Pete, Miles, Q Rich
2002   75.7   .076   13.2   17.4   P Gasol, Battier, R Jefferson, Parker, Rebraca
2003   59.9   .060   12.3   12.7   Yao, Amar'e, Boozer, C Butler, Nene, Ginobili, Okur
2004   66.4   .065   12.9   14.1   Bosh, Carmelo, LeBron, Haslem, Wade, Hinrich

2005   77.6   .074   12.8   15.4   Dwight, Iguodala, Childress, Krstic, Bonner, Duhon, Okafor
2006   74.7   .074   13.0   15.6   Paul, Bogut, Granger, Villanueva, Head, Frye
2007   62.3   .067   12.6    9.5   Roy, Millsap, Craig Smith, Aldridge
2008   57.7   .065   12.7   10.1   Scola, Moon, Horford, T Young, Noah, Landry
2009   99.0   .080   14.0   19.8   M Gasol, Rudy F, B Lopez, Love, Chalmers, Augustin, Rose, Gordon, Oden

2010   88.4   .078   13.9   16.0  'Reke, Steph, Taj, Matthews, Blair, Harden, Jerebko, Jennings, Thornton
2011   63.4   .067   13.1   14.1   Griffin, Monroe, Fields, Ed Davis, Neal
2012   73.7   .065   13.0   19.4   Kawhi, Faried, I Thomas, Irving, Parsons
2013   73.5   .066   12.6   11.5   A Davis, Lillard, Drummond, Valanciunas
2014   34.0   .047   11.3    7.5   Plumlee, Adams, Hardaway, Olynyk

avg.   67.8   .067   12.9   12.9

This year and last may well be the weakest 2 rookie classes of this Century. At best, 2 of the 3 weakest.

[Crow]

If you are inclined, what is the production in year 3 or 4 of the recent draft years to get there? How many positive by then?


If someone were looking for a bigger project:

Find players with x rating in year 3 or 4 (your choice). Look at metric paths they took to get there and sort into 3-7 clusters. I am assuming not everyone takes the same path but how does it very by position, usage, conference, pick level, playing style, etc.? Retrospectively which guys might have been obtainable by trade and when? Would you bet on trends for a similar type player? Is there market inefficiency to be exploited? Who appears to be doing best and worst at that?

[Mike G]

It's 39% of the season, we can now just call this "the 2015 season" without confusion, and rookies have collectively slumped. They now project to just 30 eWins for the season.
Jabari Parker has 1.5 eWins, so his 'projection' inflates the total by 2.1 eW.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
4.3   Nikola Mirotic Chi   18  .588   16.1   9.6   2.2   4.2    .8   1.6  1.1  1.42
3.6   Jabari Parker  Mil   30  .520   15.2   7.0   2.0   2.0   1.5   2.4   .2   .96
2.4   Andrew Wiggins Min   31  .469   13.0   4.6   1.4   2.8   1.1   2.4   .6   .46
2.3   Nerlens Noel   Phl   30  .438    8.3   8.2   1.7   3.0   2.0   2.8  1.7   .50
2.1   Elfrid Payton  Orl   25  .411    8.5   4.7   6.2   3.1   1.8   3.4   .2   .49

2.0   K.J. McDaniels Phl   25  .509   12.2   4.9   1.3   3.6   1.3   2.8  2.2   .49
1.7   Jusuf Nurkic   Den   12  .507   14.2  11.6   1.5   8.3   1.7   3.2  2.0  1.30
1.4   Zach LaVine    Min   25  .470   10.9   3.5   4.7   3.1   1.2   3.5   .2   .37
1.4   Tarik Black    Hou   16  .538    9.3  11.1    .8   4.7    .5   1.7   .2   .64
1.3 Kos Papanikolaou Hou   24  .444    8.3   5.6   4.6   3.2   1.1   2.5   .6   .45

e82    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.9   James Ennis    Mia   14  .543    9.3   5.9   1.4   2.9   1.1    .5   .5   .44
0.8 Bojan Bogdanovic Brk   23  .514   11.2   3.7   1.0   2.0    .8   1.3   .3   .20
0.6   Marcus Smart   Bos   19  .500    9.6   4.3   3.5   3.7   1.8   2.6   .2   .35
0.6   Aaron Gordon   Orl   15  .634   13.7   6.7   1.2   2.9    .6   2.2  1.2   .73
0.6   P.J. Hairston  Cha   16  .412   10.2   4.9   1.1   3.1   1.1   1.2   .8   .33

0.6   Shabazz Napier Mia   21  .554    9.7   4.2   3.0   2.6   1.5   2.8   .1   .21
0.5   Cory Jefferson Brk   10  .491   11.3   7.2   1.0   3.3    .2   1.1  1.2   .62
0.5   Kyle Anderson  SAS   15  .405    6.5   6.7   2.3   2.5   1.1    .9   .6   .31
0.5   Rodney Hood    Uta   18  .434    8.9   4.6   2.3   4.3    .7   1.4   .4   .22
0.3  Jordan Clarkson LAL   11  .476   10.6   3.7   1.8   2.6   1.6   1.3   .3   .32