Point me to posts on these two topics, if they exist?

[tacoman206]

Hey,

I was thinking about doing research on two topics because I couldn't find anything about them through searching. Before I start, though, I'd like to make sure that there isn't anything that's already been done about them.

The two topics are:

1) Aging curves for rebounding/passing/etc. (the only thing I could find was the end of http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399, but it's really simple, probably because the article was about something else entirely)

2) Effects of (mostly minor) injuries on a player's play X amount of time in the future

Thanks!

[DSMok1]

I don't believe I've seen any articles on either of these issues. I had the first on my to-do list at one point, but never got around to it. I'd love to see what you find! I recommend using advanced stats like ORB% and AST% for the aging curves, and also encourage you to read some of Tangotiger's work on aging curves and survivor bias (in baseball). It's a pretty tricky subject.

Good luck with these!

[Statman]

Hey,

I was thinking about doing research on two topics because I couldn't find anything about them through searching. Before I start, though, I'd like to make sure that there isn't anything that's already been done about them.

The two topics are:

1) Aging curves for rebounding/passing/etc. (the only thing I could find was the end of http://basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=399, but it's really simple, probably because the article was about something else entirely)

2) Effects of (mostly minor) injuries on a player's play X amount of time in the future

Thanks!

To help with the first question, I have age curve for my ratings that are already adjusting for pace, team quality, etc (overall ratings broken down to every stat).

Assuming everything being equal (pace, etc), here's the factors I use (will change very slightly when I add this season's data):

Code: Select all

+---------------------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
|                                 | ScR  | 2pR  | 3pR  | FTR  | Oreb | Dreb | AstR | StR  | BkR  | SmR  | 2mR  | 3mR  | FTmR | TOR  | PfR  | HnI  |
+---------------------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
| D League to NBA (same year)     | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.57 | 1.03 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 1.02 | 0.79 | 0.92 | 1.35 | 0.66 |
| College to NBA (next year)      | 0.61 | 0.69 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.60 | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.76 | 1.14 | 0.57 |
| College to D League (next year) | 0.93 | 1.05 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 1.01 | 1.18 | 0.66 | 0.74 | 0.83 | 0.84 | 0.86 |
| NBA Age 18 to 20                | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.91 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| NBA Age 20 to 21                | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.18 | 1.08 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| NBA Age 21 to 23                | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.09 | 1.06 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| NBA Age 23 to 24                | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.03 | 0.96 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.02 |
| NBA Age 24 to 25                | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.09 | 1.02 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| NBA Age 25 to 26                | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.10 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| NBA Age 26 to 28                | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.04 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| NBA Age 28 to 30                | 0.97 | 0.96 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| NBA Age 30 to 32                | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| NBA Age 32 to 34                | 0.95 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1.05 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| NBA Age 34 to 36                | 0.94 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| NBA Age 36 and up               | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.06 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 0.94 |
+---------------------------------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+

ScR is a points scored rating, followed by 2's made rating, etc.

SmR is shots missed rating. Then missed 2's, 3's, ft rating.

HnI is overall player rating. As you can see the average player statistically peaks at 25 or 26

To avoid extreme results that can happen with top young 3pt shooters by the time they they hit their threes peak around 28, I use overall scoring & missed shots rating adjustment. From there I do the 2's, 3's, FT's separate, and adjust all proportionately to match the overall scoring results.

I hope that all makes sense.

[DSMok1]

Format table as unicode art: http://www.sensefulsolutions.com/2010/1 ... table.html

[Statman]

Format table as unicode art: http://www.sensefulsolutions.com/2010/1 ... table.html

Thanks, I gotta remember that bookmark.