6th men 2016

[Mike G]

Of players who have started fewer than half their games, leaders in wins implied by PER, WS/48, and BPM

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xyz     6th man        Tm   Min   PER   WS/48   BPM    perW    WS    bpmW
3.28   Will Barton    Den  1211   18.7   .126   1.5    3.51   3.15   3.19
2.93   Ed Davis       Por   887   18.9   .186   2.8    2.61   3.41   2.77
2.92   Andre Iguodala GSW  1137   13.3   .144   2.5    1.94   3.38   3.42
2.90 Tristan Thompson Cle  1057   15.3   .183    .6    2.27   4.00   2.44
2.88   Enes Kanter    OKC   848   23.1   .227  -1.2    3.27   3.98   1.39

2.72   Manu Ginobili  SAS   726   19.7   .204   4.9    2.26   3.06   2.83
2.59   Nikola Jokic   Den   734   21.4   .174   3.9    2.56   2.64   2.59
2.52   Ryan Anderson  NOP  1165   17.6   .097   -.7    3.09   2.33   2.13
2.36   Boris Diaw     SAS   800   15.8   .171   2.6    1.81   2.83   2.43
2.35   David West     SAS   674   18.0   .204   3.9    1.85   2.84   2.38

xyz is the avg of perW, WS, and bpmW
A few players are higher than Barton in all 3 per-minute rates, but they've played a lot less minutes.

It's literally implausible that one team has more than one 6th man, but there can be more than one candidate from a team. Patty Mills is 13th in this, 4th for the Spurs.

EDIT -- When I add eWins to this xyz avg, Kanter moves to 2nd, Davis to 4th, Thompson 3rd; Oladipo replaces Diaw; Barton's lead increases from .35 to .42

[Mike G]

Nobody from a sub-.500 team has ever taken the Sixth Man of the Year Award.
Closest seems to be Dell Curry of the 41-41 Hornets in 1994. They also missed the playoffs.

While it may be rare for a below-avg team to have an above-avg player coming off the bench, it shouldn't be unthinkable. The current Nuggets have almost no correlation between their Starters and player PER, WS/48, BPM, etc.
Will Barton is their #2 in minutes, points, rebounds, Win Shares, and VORP. He leads the team in 3FG and Stl, 3rd in Ast, 4th in Blk. He's started just one game.
B-R.com says he's a SG; but he's played 25% of his minutes at PG, 16% at SF, 1% at PF.

The Yahoo Ball Don't Lie guys have 2 votes for Iguodala, one for T Thompson. Representing last year's Finalists -- and conference-leading teams this year -- made me wonder if, like the MVP , this one is supposed to go to a top contender.

EDIT -- Ed Davis leads the league in O-Rtg, at 127.7
Tristan Thompson is 2nd at 126.1 -- Curry at 125.5

[Mike G]

Update. %St = fraction of games started = GS/G

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xyz    Player         Tm   %St    Min   PER   WS/48   BPM    WS   perW  bpmW
6.3 Tristan Thompson CLE   .41   2134   15.8   .186   1.3    8.3   4.9   5.5
5.6   Gorgui Dieng   MIN   .43   2061   16.9   .121   2.4    5.2   5.2   6.3
5.6   Ed Davis       POR   .00   1585   18.8   .196   3.4    6.5   4.7   5.4
5.3   Enes Kanter    OKC   .00   1571   23.9   .225  -1.8    7.4   6.4   2.2
4.9   Aaron Gordon   ORL   .47   1778   16.9   .141   1.7    5.2   4.5   4.9

4.9   Jrue Holiday   NOP   .35   1831   19.8   .093   2.0    3.5   5.8   5.3
4.8   Will Barton    DEN   .01   2230   16.4   .094    .0    4.4   5.4   4.6
4.7  Darren Collison SAC   .18   2145   15.7   .110   -.3    4.9   4.9   4.2
4.2   Patrick Mills  SAS   .04   1544   15.2   .151   2.1    4.9   3.3   4.5
4.2   David West     SAS   .23   1270   17.5   .184   3.4    4.9   3.4   4.4

xyz    Player         Tm   %St    Min   PER   WS/48   BPM    WS   perW  bpmW
4.2   Ryan Anderson  NOP   .11   2008   17.3   .096  -1.1    4.0   5.3   3.3
4.2  Bismack Biyombo TOR   .29   1703   14.8   .155    .0    5.5   3.5   3.5
4.0   Evan Turner    BOS   .14   2118   13.8   .089   -.5    3.9   3.9   4.0
3.8   Andre Iguodala GSW   .02   1608   12.7   .129   1.9    4.3   2.6   4.6
3.7  Thabo Sefolosha ATL   .14   1639   12.8   .125   1.2    4.3   2.7   4.2

3.7  Mario Chalmers Mi-Mem .11   1373   17.3   .133   1.5    3.8   3.6   3.7
3.6   Omri Casspi    SAC   .30   1880   13.9   .092   -.2    3.6   3.5   3.8
3.6   Brandon Bass   LAL   .00   1342   17.4   .146    .8    4.1   3.5   3.2
3.6   Clint Capela   HOU   .49   1364   18.0   .138    .3    3.9   3.8   3.0
3.5   Trevor Booker  UTA   .03   1509   14.2   .121   1.2    3.8   2.9   3.9

Someone on the NBA pre-game show nominated Jamal Crawford. He's below avg in all 3 stats; ranks #39 among non-starters in xyz wins.

[Crow]

Of course someone looked at Crawford's 14pts per game and not much else and ran with it.

[Mike G]

Actually, they came up with more of a list later in the broadcast. Kanter was in the game, and they also mentioned Barton, Iguodala, Lin, perhaps others. It was suggested that it's better for this award to play for a good team.

It's not that hard to make a systematic and comprehensive list such as these here. But the brains who vote seem to just rely on brainstorming; certain names are never brought up, and we never know why.

[Mike G]

In the last 10 years, this xyz calls the award winner pretty well. Except when it doesn't.
WINNERS are in all caps.

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. yr   xyz    Player          Tm   %St    Min   PER   WS/48   BPM
2006   6.8   MIKE MILLER     MEM   .12   2268   17.2   .157   2.6
2006   5.7   Derek Fisher    GSW   .44   2589   14.8   .107    .5
2006   5.6   Josh Childress  ATL   .14   2249   15.8   .121   1.5
                        
2007   8.1   LEANDRO BARBOSA PHO   .23   2613   18.4   .151   2.9
2007   6.2   Corey Maggette  LAC   .41   2291   18.6   .146    .2
2007   5.2   Luther Head     HOU   .13   2211   13.7   .123   1.5
                        
2008  11.0   MANU GINOBILI   SAS   .31   2299   24.3   .232   8.1
2008   8.0   Jason Terry     DAL   .41   2579   17.8   .160   2.7
2008   6.9   Josh Childress  ATL   .00   2274   17.8   .160   2.4
                        
2009   7.5   JASON TERRY     DAL   .15   2491   19.3   .140   2.5
2009   6.7   Lamar Odom      LAL   .41   2316   16.6   .143   2.9
2009   6.5   Nate Robinson   NYK   .15   2209   18.9   .128   2.6
                        
2010   9.3   Manu Ginobili   SAS   .28   2150   22.5   .216   6.3
2010   7.5   Lamar Odom      LAL   .46   2585   15.9   .143   3.1
2010   6.8   JAMAL CRAWFORD  ATL   .00   2460   18.4   .143    .8
                        
2011   9.2   LAMAR ODOM      LAL   .43   2639   19.4   .184   3.7
2011   6.4   James Harden    OKC   .06   2189   16.4   .156   2.3
2011   6.2   Ty Lawson       DEN   .39   2103   17.9   .153   1.9

2012   7.9   JAMES HARDEN    OKC   .03   1946   21.1   .230   4.5
2012   5.5   Lou Williams    Phi   .00   1682   20.2   .174   1.9
2012   5.4   Thaddeus Young  Phi   .02   1755   18.9   .171   1.6
                        
2013   7.2   Amir Johnson    TOR   .47   2325   17.3   .151   3.5
2013   7.0   J.R. SMITH      NYK   .00   2678   17.6   .120   1.3
2013   6.7   Ryan Anderson   NOH   .27   2503   18.1   .125   1.3
                        
2014   6.0   Markieff Morris PHO   .00   2153   18.4   .143   1.0
2014   5.1   JAMAL CRAWFORD  LAC   .35   2094   17.3   .122    .2
2014   5.0   Taj Gibson      CHI   .10   2351   16.0   .117  -1.1
                        
2015   8.8   Rudy Gobert     UTA   .45   2158   21.6   .206   5.8
2015   6.0   LOU WILLIAMS    TOR   .00   2016   19.9   .157    .9
2015   5.9 Patrick Patterson TOR   .05   2156   14.6   .137   3.2

There may be omissions. I just looked at the top 100 minutes in the interval, by players with GS/G < .50
This favors good per-game averages.
EDIT: Added in [short] 2012 season.

[Dr Positivity]

Probably comes down to Kanter and Crawford for the win. No sign that defense affects this award

[Mike G]

In the xyz blend described above, the 6moy award winner in the last 10 seasons has been ranked:
#1 - 6 times
#2 - 3 times
#3 - 1 time.
But this year, voters will depart from that -- perhaps drastically?

[Dr Positivity]

Yup... Jamal Crawford wins

[Mike G]

Of players who started less than half their games, 100 played at least 1100 minutes.
Of these top 100, Crawford's PER (14.0) ranks 41st, his WS/48 (.076) was 64th, his BPM (-2.6) was 80th.
#39 in Win Shares, 81 in VORP, 4th in Pts/G (14.2)

Five others with 14-17 ppg played for Sac, Den, Min, NOP -- losing teams.
All 5 were also better in all these other stats.

[Crow]

They should call the award the Jamal Crawford yay points we don't care about defense or efficiency silly media 6th man award. At least in the years he wins it.

[Mike G]

He was already the only winner to rank as low as #3 (in xyz above); AND one of the other 3 who was not #1.
His 3.3 WS is barely half of the lowest previous winner's.

But it's definitely an odd year. The best xyz from a winning/playoff teams were not big scorers. Some bad teams had some of their best scorers coming off the bench. It's traditionally been good and elite teams who can afford that luxury.

[Dr Positivity]

Top twenty 6th man eligible players by VEDS (first column per 82 games, second column including games played). Crabbe rates as 2nd most valuable player overall on a playoff team

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POR	Allen Crabbe	7.677	7.584
MIN	Gorgui Dieng	7.303	7.303
SAS	David West	6.59	6.268
DET	Anthony Tolliver	6.993	6.14
GSW	Andre Iguodala	7.552	5.986
LAC	Wesley Johnson	5.96	5.815
TOR	Patrick Patterson	6.009	5.789
CLE	Tristan Thompson	5.765	5.765
ORL	Aaron Gordon	5.992	5.7
PHX	Mirza Teletovic	5.816	5.603
POR	Ed Davis	5.648	5.579
OKC	Enes Kanter	5.418	5.418
ATL	Thabo Sefolosha	5.898	5.394
TOR	Terrence Ross	6.031	5.369
SAS	Patrick Mills	5.089	5.027
BOS	Kelly Olynyk	5.671	4.772
SAC	Omri Casspi	5.188	4.365
SAC	Darren Collison	4.761	4.297
LAL	Brandon Bass	5.228	4.208
POR	Meyers Leonard	5.516	4.103

Crawford ranks 104th

[Mike G]

Crawford ranks 104th

Yikes! It just gets worse.
His 14.0 PER and his -2.6 BPM are both his worst since his rookie season.
His .076 WS/48 and 3.3 WS are just below his career norms.
.466 eFG% was 5th lowest in 16 years. ORtg a couple below career level.