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6th men 2016
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:37 pm
by Mike G
Of players who have started fewer than half their games, leaders in
wins implied by PER, WS/48, and BPM
Code: Select all
xyz 6th man Tm Min PER WS/48 BPM perW WS bpmW
3.28 Will Barton Den 1211 18.7 .126 1.5 3.51 3.15 3.19
2.93 Ed Davis Por 887 18.9 .186 2.8 2.61 3.41 2.77
2.92 Andre Iguodala GSW 1137 13.3 .144 2.5 1.94 3.38 3.42
2.90 Tristan Thompson Cle 1057 15.3 .183 .6 2.27 4.00 2.44
2.88 Enes Kanter OKC 848 23.1 .227 -1.2 3.27 3.98 1.39
2.72 Manu Ginobili SAS 726 19.7 .204 4.9 2.26 3.06 2.83
2.59 Nikola Jokic Den 734 21.4 .174 3.9 2.56 2.64 2.59
2.52 Ryan Anderson NOP 1165 17.6 .097 -.7 3.09 2.33 2.13
2.36 Boris Diaw SAS 800 15.8 .171 2.6 1.81 2.83 2.43
2.35 David West SAS 674 18.0 .204 3.9 1.85 2.84 2.38
is the avg of perW, WS, and bpmW
A few players are higher than Barton in all 3 per-minute rates, but they've played a lot less minutes.
It's literally implausible that one team has more than one
6th man, but there can be more than one
candidate from a team. Patty Mills is 13th in this, 4th for the Spurs.
EDIT -- When I add eWins to this xyz avg, Kanter moves to 2nd, Davis to 4th, Thompson 3rd; Oladipo replaces Diaw; Barton's lead increases from .35 to .42
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:39 pm
by Mike G
Nobody from a sub-.500 team has ever taken the Sixth Man of the Year Award.
Closest seems to be Dell Curry of the 41-41 Hornets in 1994. They also missed the playoffs.
While it may be rare for a below-avg team to have an above-avg player coming off the bench, it shouldn't be unthinkable. The current Nuggets have almost no correlation between their Starters and player PER, WS/48, BPM, etc.
Will Barton is their #2 in minutes, points, rebounds, Win Shares, and VORP. He leads the team in 3FG and Stl, 3rd in Ast, 4th in Blk. He's started just one game.
B-R.com says he's a SG; but he's played 25% of his minutes at PG, 16% at SF, 1% at PF.
The Yahoo Ball Don't Lie guys have 2 votes for Iguodala, one for T Thompson. Representing last year's Finalists -- and conference-leading teams this year -- made me wonder if, like the MVP , this one is supposed to go to a top contender.
EDIT -- Ed Davis leads the league in O-Rtg, at 127.7
Tristan Thompson is 2nd at 126.1 -- Curry at 125.5
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2016 8:06 pm
by Mike G
Update. %St = fraction of games started = GS/G
Code: Select all
xyz Player Tm %St Min PER WS/48 BPM WS perW bpmW
6.3 Tristan Thompson CLE .41 2134 15.8 .186 1.3 8.3 4.9 5.5
5.6 Gorgui Dieng MIN .43 2061 16.9 .121 2.4 5.2 5.2 6.3
5.6 Ed Davis POR .00 1585 18.8 .196 3.4 6.5 4.7 5.4
5.3 Enes Kanter OKC .00 1571 23.9 .225 -1.8 7.4 6.4 2.2
4.9 Aaron Gordon ORL .47 1778 16.9 .141 1.7 5.2 4.5 4.9
4.9 Jrue Holiday NOP .35 1831 19.8 .093 2.0 3.5 5.8 5.3
4.8 Will Barton DEN .01 2230 16.4 .094 .0 4.4 5.4 4.6
4.7 Darren Collison SAC .18 2145 15.7 .110 -.3 4.9 4.9 4.2
4.2 Patrick Mills SAS .04 1544 15.2 .151 2.1 4.9 3.3 4.5
4.2 David West SAS .23 1270 17.5 .184 3.4 4.9 3.4 4.4
xyz Player Tm %St Min PER WS/48 BPM WS perW bpmW
4.2 Ryan Anderson NOP .11 2008 17.3 .096 -1.1 4.0 5.3 3.3
4.2 Bismack Biyombo TOR .29 1703 14.8 .155 .0 5.5 3.5 3.5
4.0 Evan Turner BOS .14 2118 13.8 .089 -.5 3.9 3.9 4.0
3.8 Andre Iguodala GSW .02 1608 12.7 .129 1.9 4.3 2.6 4.6
3.7 Thabo Sefolosha ATL .14 1639 12.8 .125 1.2 4.3 2.7 4.2
3.7 Mario Chalmers Mi-Mem .11 1373 17.3 .133 1.5 3.8 3.6 3.7
3.6 Omri Casspi SAC .30 1880 13.9 .092 -.2 3.6 3.5 3.8
3.6 Brandon Bass LAL .00 1342 17.4 .146 .8 4.1 3.5 3.2
3.6 Clint Capela HOU .49 1364 18.0 .138 .3 3.9 3.8 3.0
3.5 Trevor Booker UTA .03 1509 14.2 .121 1.2 3.8 2.9 3.9
Someone on the NBA pre-game show nominated Jamal Crawford. He's below avg in all 3 stats; ranks #39 among non-starters in
xyz wins.
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:30 am
by Crow
Of course someone looked at Crawford's 14pts per game and not much else and ran with it.
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2016 4:17 pm
by Mike G
Actually, they came up with more of a list later in the broadcast. Kanter was in the game, and they also mentioned Barton, Iguodala, Lin, perhaps others. It was suggested that it's better for this award to play for a good team.
It's not that hard to make a systematic and comprehensive list such as these here. But the brains who vote seem to just rely on brainstorming; certain names are never brought up, and we never know why.
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:17 pm
by Mike G
In the last 10 years, this xyz calls the award winner pretty well. Except when it doesn't.
WINNERS are in all caps.
Code: Select all
. yr xyz Player Tm %St Min PER WS/48 BPM
2006 6.8 MIKE MILLER MEM .12 2268 17.2 .157 2.6
2006 5.7 Derek Fisher GSW .44 2589 14.8 .107 .5
2006 5.6 Josh Childress ATL .14 2249 15.8 .121 1.5
2007 8.1 LEANDRO BARBOSA PHO .23 2613 18.4 .151 2.9
2007 6.2 Corey Maggette LAC .41 2291 18.6 .146 .2
2007 5.2 Luther Head HOU .13 2211 13.7 .123 1.5
2008 11.0 MANU GINOBILI SAS .31 2299 24.3 .232 8.1
2008 8.0 Jason Terry DAL .41 2579 17.8 .160 2.7
2008 6.9 Josh Childress ATL .00 2274 17.8 .160 2.4
2009 7.5 JASON TERRY DAL .15 2491 19.3 .140 2.5
2009 6.7 Lamar Odom LAL .41 2316 16.6 .143 2.9
2009 6.5 Nate Robinson NYK .15 2209 18.9 .128 2.6
2010 9.3 Manu Ginobili SAS .28 2150 22.5 .216 6.3
2010 7.5 Lamar Odom LAL .46 2585 15.9 .143 3.1
2010 6.8 JAMAL CRAWFORD ATL .00 2460 18.4 .143 .8
2011 9.2 LAMAR ODOM LAL .43 2639 19.4 .184 3.7
2011 6.4 James Harden OKC .06 2189 16.4 .156 2.3
2011 6.2 Ty Lawson DEN .39 2103 17.9 .153 1.9
2012 7.9 JAMES HARDEN OKC .03 1946 21.1 .230 4.5
2012 5.5 Lou Williams Phi .00 1682 20.2 .174 1.9
2012 5.4 Thaddeus Young Phi .02 1755 18.9 .171 1.6
2013 7.2 Amir Johnson TOR .47 2325 17.3 .151 3.5
2013 7.0 J.R. SMITH NYK .00 2678 17.6 .120 1.3
2013 6.7 Ryan Anderson NOH .27 2503 18.1 .125 1.3
2014 6.0 Markieff Morris PHO .00 2153 18.4 .143 1.0
2014 5.1 JAMAL CRAWFORD LAC .35 2094 17.3 .122 .2
2014 5.0 Taj Gibson CHI .10 2351 16.0 .117 -1.1
2015 8.8 Rudy Gobert UTA .45 2158 21.6 .206 5.8
2015 6.0 LOU WILLIAMS TOR .00 2016 19.9 .157 .9
2015 5.9 Patrick Patterson TOR .05 2156 14.6 .137 3.2
There may be omissions. I just looked at the top 100 minutes in the interval, by players with GS/G < .50
This favors good per-game averages.
EDIT: Added in [short] 2012 season.
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:01 pm
by Dr Positivity
Probably comes down to Kanter and Crawford for the win. No sign that defense affects this award
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:02 pm
by Mike G
In the xyz blend described above, the 6moy award winner in the last 10 seasons has been ranked:
#1 - 6 times
#2 - 3 times
#3 - 1 time.
But this year, voters will depart from that -- perhaps drastically?
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 3:15 pm
by Dr Positivity
Yup... Jamal Crawford wins
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 4:09 pm
by Mike G
Of players who started less than half their games, 100 played at least 1100 minutes.
Of these top 100, Crawford's PER (14.0) ranks 41st, his WS/48 (.076) was 64th, his BPM (-2.6) was 80th.
#39 in Win Shares, 81 in VORP, 4th in Pts/G (14.2)
Five others with 14-17 ppg played for Sac, Den, Min, NOP -- losing teams.
All 5 were also better in all these other stats.
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 4:43 pm
by Crow
They should call the award the Jamal Crawford yay points we don't care about defense or efficiency silly media 6th man award. At least in the years he wins it.
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 5:02 pm
by Mike G
He was already the only winner to rank as low as #3 (in xyz above); AND one of the other 3 who was not #1.
His 3.3 WS is barely half of the lowest previous winner's.
But it's definitely an odd year. The best xyz from a winning/playoff teams were not big scorers. Some bad teams had some of their best scorers coming off the bench. It's traditionally been good and elite teams who can afford that luxury.
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 7:44 pm
by Dr Positivity
Top twenty 6th man eligible players by VEDS (first column per 82 games, second column including games played). Crabbe rates as 2nd most valuable player overall on a playoff team
Code: Select all
POR Allen Crabbe 7.677 7.584
MIN Gorgui Dieng 7.303 7.303
SAS David West 6.59 6.268
DET Anthony Tolliver 6.993 6.14
GSW Andre Iguodala 7.552 5.986
LAC Wesley Johnson 5.96 5.815
TOR Patrick Patterson 6.009 5.789
CLE Tristan Thompson 5.765 5.765
ORL Aaron Gordon 5.992 5.7
PHX Mirza Teletovic 5.816 5.603
POR Ed Davis 5.648 5.579
OKC Enes Kanter 5.418 5.418
ATL Thabo Sefolosha 5.898 5.394
TOR Terrence Ross 6.031 5.369
SAS Patrick Mills 5.089 5.027
BOS Kelly Olynyk 5.671 4.772
SAC Omri Casspi 5.188 4.365
SAC Darren Collison 4.761 4.297
LAL Brandon Bass 5.228 4.208
POR Meyers Leonard 5.516 4.103
Crawford ranks 104th
Re: 6th men 2016
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:40 pm
by Mike G
Crawford ranks 104th
Yikes! It just gets worse.
His 14.0 PER and his -2.6 BPM are both his worst since his rookie season.
His .076 WS/48 and 3.3 WS are just below his career norms.
.466 eFG% was 5th lowest in 16 years. ORtg a couple below career level.