Harden vs Jordan

[Mike G]

I've been reading that James Harden is the greatest scorer since Michael Jordan. Is that a stretch?
Jordan hit 37.1 Pts/G in 1987 and 33-35 another 3 times, for the 4 highest PPG seasons while he played.
Last year, Harden hit 36.1 ppg; and this year he's averaging an incredible 38.7

How do they stack up when you account for pace? and minutes?
Top 10 seasons in the 3-point era in points per 100 possessions:

Code: Select all

Pts/G   player    yr   eFG%   TS%  Pt/100
36.1   Harden    2019  .541  .616   48.2
38.7 * Harden  * 2020  .537  .634   47.1
37.1   Jordan    1987  .484  .562   46.4
35.4   Kobe      2006  .491  .559   45.6
31.6  Westbrook  2017  .476  .554   44.8

31.0 * Giannis * 2020  .604  .617   44.6
35.0   Jordan    1988  .537  .603   43.6
30.3 * Doncic  * 2020  .554  .617   43.2
32.6   Jordan    1993  .515  .564   43.0
33.6   Jordan    1990  .550  .606   42.7

Jordan's 1987 heroics were at rather a low efficiency by current standards. Next year, he does crack .600 TS% and 35 ppg; but Harden'19 beats him by 4.6 pts/100; and this year by 3.7 pts/G

Harden's 14.5 FTA/G is 2nd all-time after Wilt Chamberlain's 17.0 in 1962
With 12.7 made FT/G, he's running away from the record avg of 10.6, by Jerry West in 1966.

[bchaikin]

harden may score as many or more points as jordan, even have a higher pts/g average in a few seasons, but he's never been anywhere near the player jordan was in terms of helping his team win games, in terms of wins generated...

looking at each player's likely best 8 year stretch, 1213-1920 for harden, 8687-9293 and then 9596 for jordan, here's what each player averaged:

harden - 37 min/g, 29.4 pts/g, 31.7 pts/40min, and per 3000 min 622 ast, 142 st, 361 to
jordan - 39 min/g, 32.8 pts/g, 33.6 pts/40min, and per 3000 min 444 ast, 209 st, 221 to

if you are going to look at a player's offensive "efficiency" you should include his turnovers, since when a player has the ball on offense he will per touch eventually shoot, pass, get fouled, or turn the ball over...

when you do that you will find that over each 8 year stretch jordan was far more efficient on offense compared to harden at 2.69 vs. 2.21 pts/0ptposs (points per zero point possession)...

look at the 8 year averages above - is harden's 178 more assists per 3000 min worth another 140 turnovers per 3000 min?...

and defensively it's no comparison - jordan was the vastly superior defender...

simulation shows looking at harden's best 2 seasons (likely 1819-1920) and jordan's (8788, 9091) that at 40 min/g and 82 games jordan generated wins at a rate of 8-9 more wins than did harden...

considering that the difference between the best and worst starters at a particular position in a typical season on a 40 min/g and 82 game season is 15-16 wins, you can see that a difference of 8-9 wins is huge...

again, harden may score as well as or even better than jordan, but he's been nowhere near the player jordan was in terms of winning games...

[Mike G]

Good points all, Bob. It's kind of hard to say Harden's best 8 years will be wrapping up this season, since his numbers are ever increasing. Supposing he's reached his zenith, and the next 4 years will be equivalent to his latest 4, they have per-100-possession rates like this:

Code: Select all

per100   from   to     G   mpg   TS%    Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk   TO
Harden   2016  2023   670   37  .613   41.8   8.7  11.4   2.3   0.8   6.5
Jordan   1987  1996   666   39  .586   42.4   8.3   7.5   3.5   1.3   3.7

I just doubled Harden's games and minutes over the last 4.2 seasons and threw in Jordan's 1994-95.
Are 3.9 assists worth 2.8 turnovers? No, and Jordan's steals and blocks aren't matched. But just as scorers, they are looking pretty similar.
In regular seasons, that is; in playoffs, not so close:
http://bkref.com/tiny/6fVFV

[DickMays]

The total number of possessions per game has gone up, since the shot clock was reduced.
Thus, it is hard to compare the statistical numbers as there are more points, rebounds, etc, with more possessions.

[Mike G]

I wasn't aware the shot clock had been reduced.
In any case, teams play at different paces, or possessions per game. That's why I offered the comparisons per standard 100 possessions.

While Harden approaches and perhaps at times surpasses Jordan in regular season scoring, the postseason belongs to MJ.
Through age 30 comparisons:

Code: Select all

reg. sea  TS%  Pt/100  Usg%   ORt  DRt
Jordan   .589   41.7   33.5   121  103
Harden   .610   35.9   30.4   118  103

playoffs  TS%  Pt/100  Usg%   ORt  DRt
Jordan   .581   43.9   35.8   119  105
Harden   .579   32.9   29.1   113  108

http://bkref.com/tiny/LX9xg

[deepak]

So, if the claim is that Harden is the greatest scorer since Jordan, why would a comparison against Jordan serve as a refutation of that claim? Shouldn’t we compare him against well-reputed scorers since Jordan? Like, say, Kobe or Durant or Curry?

[Mike G]

Sure, why not?
http://bkref.com/tiny/0NRou
Cutting careers at age 34 -- so as not to favor players who are currently in their prime, vs those who played well beyond -- we find the top scorers in Pts/100 are Jordan, Durant, LeBron, Shaq, Kobe, and Harden. Jordan at 41.5 pts/100, the others 36-37. Curry is down at 33.5, but with the best TS% of the bunch.

Player Comparison Finder will only do 6 players, so to include Curry, we get these 15 with at least 33.5 pts/100
http://bkref.com/tiny/WwCfm

Is a "better scorer" one who only scores? Or one who gets points along with lots of other things -- and scores when he has to?
Play with the table by clicking on the column headers. This sorts by TS%, TRb%, etc. Some guys rank highly in multiple measures, while others tend to hug the bottom of the list.

Top 15 for playoffs:
http://bkref.com/tiny/UOuwP