Analyzing the Kings

[Crow]

There is some Kings commentary in other threads.

I'll highlight some new observations here.

Ariza was traded with no 5 man used over 1 minute per game. No trio got more than about 4 minutes per game for season or 8 minutes per game when actually used. The trio of Fox Ariza and Bjelica did great in time it got. One pair great, one neutral were essentially Ariza's best. I'd have used that as rationale to try it more or a lot more.

Just one Dedmon lineup used even 1 minute per game and they basically gave up for awhile. Not adequate / productive testing. Overall pairs with Bogdanovic and Ariza were only mildly negative. The trio with Bogdanovic and Barnes was good and was at least one thing that should have been tested more.


Overall lineup data supports Joseph Hield Barnes Bjelica Holmes as a core.

Fox has terrible pairs with many of these. Near neutral with Bjelica and Holmes. Great with Joseph in modest / too little testing.

Bagley horrible pairs with almost everyone.

[Crow]

9-11 with Joseph as starter. 8-18 without.

2-11 when Bagley played at all. (Much more balanced last season.)

[Crow]

Divac has averaged about 1-1.5 significant good moves per season, about 3 significant bad ones with lots of minor moves thrown in, mostly meh to bad.

[Crow]

Bottom 40% and worse on 6 of 8 factors. Good on 2 on defense but the least important ones.


Somewhat surprising, they are 8th oldest team in league on minutes weighted average.



I'll repeat the mentions elsewhere of the super slow pace and super bad shot distribution (from a Moreyball perspective) for completeness.

Better than average at limiting opponent shots from 3 and at rim but much worse at allowing ft/fga.

[Crow]

What will Kings look like in 6 -18 months? I dunno. Nobody is a guaranteed long-term piece. Or at least deserving on being considered that imo.

Including GM, Coach, other staff.

[Crow]

Slow pace compared to last season, way more turnovers, less offensive rebounds, higher 3pt rate but low ft rate and at rim. Steals down, fouls still high.

What has Kings analytics recommended? What has Coaching used and not?

What advice did they give on Bagley vs. Doncic?

Won't know but it is not a good looking situation.

[Crow]

3 most used lineups are positive. Used about 10 minutes per game combined. Involve 7 players. Next 9 most used lineups are negative, 5 horrible. Most involved additional bench players. Want to win more? Probably give more minutes to lineups comprised of the top 7. Room for more minutes. Twice as much or more.

[Dr Positivity]

In my stat VEDS

Code: Select all

Player		Vol.	Eff.	Def.	Spac.	VEDS	VEDS/min.
R. Holmes	4.28	8.54	7.02	1.8	21.64	0.74
N. Bjelica	4.63	4.38	5.01	5.75	19.77	0.7
B. Hield	8.25	-0.25	1.99	6.62	16.62	0.5
H. Barnes	5.61	3.2	3.22	4.55	16.57	0.48
D. Fox		8.56	1.03	4.51	1.4	15.5	0.49
T. Ariza	2.58	0.12	4.56	7.56	14.82	0.6
B. Bogdanović	5.93	-0.18	2.04	5.83	13.62	0.48
C. Joseph	3	0.13	3.24	2.96	9.34	0.38
E. Mika		1.55	7.75	-2.19	1.96	9.08	0.48
M. Bagley	6.1	-2.01	1.86	2.61	8.55	0.33
K. Bazemore	3.93	-2.48	2.55	3.6	7.6	0.38
H. Giles	2.34	0.46	2.57	1.42	6.79	0.54
D. Dedmon	2.7	-3.73	2.74	3.27	4.99	0.31
Y. Ferrell	1.9	-0.2	0.57	1.55	3.82	0.34
J. James	1.24	-0.6	0.91	1.37	2.93	0.42
A. Tolliver	0.96	-3.54	1.42	3.94	2.77	0.3
D. Jeffries	0.48	0.27	0.04	0.89	1.69	0.53
W. Gabriel	0.96	-1.39	0.81	1.08	1.45	0.26
K. Guy		0.4	-0.22	-0.35	0.41	0.24	0.12
C. Swanigan	0.65	-2.22	1.27	0.39	0.09	0.03

- Holmes ranks as their best defender in both DBPM and DRPM and is one of the most efficient players in the league at .692 TS and 133 ORTG. At .203 WS/48, 3.5 BPM, and best plus/minus on the team (+6.3) it all points towards him being their best player. Reminds me of when Amir Johnson was the best advanced stats guy on a bad Raptors team while Bargnani and Derozan took the most shots.
- Bjelica defensive stats are respectable so when added to his efficiency/spacing he comes out as a pretty good player
- Would be wary of giving out big contracts to Bogdanovic and Fox to join Barnes and Field. Bogdanovic has mediocre efficiency (.553 TS%, 106 ORTG) for a 14ppg player.

[Crow]

Bagley with the lowest VEDS / minute on team in main rotation.

Anyone of team could be moved for proper assets but Bagley might be the first player I'd move.

[Crow]

3 of 4 worst big minute pairs with Fox. Either fix that, get better pairings or maybe move Fox.


Holmes is a strength but probably not enough to get somewhere in itself.

Opponent turnovers and defensive rebounding are above average but that doesn't sound that compelling.

3 PT rate and 3pt fg% is ok but not supported by other parts of Moreyball.

[Crow]

The raw lineup and sub-lineup suggests the productive core is Joseph Hield Barnes Bjelica Holmes. I'd try to move many outside that. Bogdanovic is borderline. I'd probably pass at paying him.

[Crow]

Wasn't aware Bagley's RPM estimate has risen to
-0.6. Might need to review again.

[Crow]

Still quite low in league on RAPM and LA-RAPM. And BPM.

Maybe RPM's increased in importance boxscore component is helping him? Impressed with his scoring? And / or just less unimpressed with his defense at measured by the plus minus?

[Crow]

82games estimated by position performance (not completely reliable assignments but quickly available) last season for Bagley showed better team performance with Bagley at PF and slightly better player performance. Estimated that he spent about equal time at PF and C. This season it is indicated that the Kings put him very heavily at C and with disastrously worse team and individual results than at PF. Would want to look closer with other tools but Bagley at center seems like a very bad idea right now.

[Crow]

In top 8 lineups used over 50 minutes, the 3 horrible ones all have Fox Hield Barnes. There is just one slightly positive lineup with that trio in the group. Overall that trio averages -2pts / 100p. So it is not good but Walton is finishing and / or running those particular lineups in very ineffective ways. Playing against starters is probably part of it, but these lineups are so bad it is clearly more than just a standard strength of opponent adjustment.

Most used lineup is modestly positive but used just 4 minutes per game. Joseph Bjelica and Holmes in it. Not the most favored players. In the team's 20 most used pairs, at least one is in every positive pair except one. All 3 versions with two of them are positive, though very slightly. The worst big minute pairs are Fox - Hield and Fox - Barnes, though they are only modestly negative.

Could / need to do better with both cores and completions. Are analytics staff on these lineup issues or just not getting coaching followthru?