2020-21 lineup design & analysis

[Crow]

Here is a first cut (5 minutes of thought) lineup design for the Warriors:

Curry Bazemore Oubre Green Wiseman 16 min / g

Curry Wiggins Oubre Paschall Wiseman 8

Wanamaker Lee Wiggins Green Chriss 6

Curry Bazemore Wiggins Green Chriss 6

Wanamaker Lee Wiggins Oubre Paschall 6

Curry Bazemore Wiggins Green Chriss 6

Order of usage is not specified beyond the initial lineup, which probably starts and maybe closes initially. A death lineup of Curry Bazemore Wiggins Oubre Green might takeover a spot, especially in playoffs.

Minutes / game:

Curry 36
Wanamaker 12
Bazemore 28
Oubre 30
Wiggins 32
Green 34
Paschall 14
Wiseman 24
Chriss 18

Change as appropriate as weeks / months of data come in.

Use others in case of injury, rest, blowout and special situations but max trial of main lineups and minimize random, mostly meaningless dink lineups.

[Crow]

Draft Blazers rotation:

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 10240?s=20

[Crow]

Draft Hawks rotation minutes:

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 65568?s=20

A lineup set was picked but could be adjusted.

[Crow]

Lots of options for Wizards but they will need to dial in the lineup rotation to something decent pretty quick to avoid too much chaos and hopefully be effective enough to stay in playoff hunt.

I'd start with something like this line up set probably. A bunch of deep bench players I don't know. I didnt really consider them but maybe as time goes on.

Westbrook Beal Brown Bertans Bryant 16 minutes

Westbrook Brown Bonga Bertans Lopez 8

backup PG Beal Bonga Hachimura Bryant 8

backup PG Beal Avdija Hachimura Pasecniks 8

Westbrook Brown Avdija Bertans Wagner 8

In no particular order of appearance (beyond first line up of starters / probably closers). Can be more than one stint.

Average minutes

Westbrook 32
Beal 32
Brown 32
Bertans 32
Bryant 24
backup PG(s) 16
Bonga 16
Avdija 16
Hachimura 16
Lopez 8
Wagner 8
Pasecniks 8

Try 10-20 games and adjust. Vary from this is there is a good reason but I'd suggest they not do the typical 700 lineup thing. At least one big shakes out. Wing priority could vary based on results.

[Crow]

Minutes summary (starting point)

PG
Jamal Murray 32
Monte Morris 12
Facundo Campazzo 8
Markus Howard 8

SG
Gary Harris 24
P.J. Dozier 4
RJ Hampton 8

SF
Michael Porter Jr. 24
Will Barton 20
Vlatko Cancar 4
Tyler Cook 4

PF
Paul Millsap 20
JaMychal Green 24

C
Nikola Jokic 32
Bol Bol 4
Zeke Nnaji 8
Isaiah Hartenstein 4

[Crow]

Suggested Sixers base lineup.

https://twitter.com/bballstrategy/statu ... 13856?s=20

There might be others on my Twitter that I forgot to link to.

[Crow]

Early look at lineups and player pairs on my twitter feed, fwiw.

[Crow]

First cut Bulls rotation. I'd probably change even more radically but this is a compromise:

Sat LV OP PW WC 8 min
Sat GT CH OP M 6
CW GT Sat PW M 10
CW LV CH PW M 6
Sat GT CH OP M 6
CW LV CH PW M 6
CW LV OP M C 6

Probably in that order this time.

Satoranksy 30
White 28
Temple 22
LaVine 26
Hutchison 18
Williams 30
Porter 32
Markkannen 34
Carter 20

[Crow]

Multiple observations and suggestions about Timberwolves lineup management today on my twitter in dialogue with GM Thompson.

[Crow]

Pretty obvious imo that the Knicks should try Payton Burks Barrett Randle Robinson more when Burks returns.

[Crow]

There are either good to great lineups out there for the Coach and analytic staff to discover or there are at least less weak than average lineups to discover. But you have to both try and recognize them.

How to look for and react to better lineups affects if you find them and how much gain they provide.

Very diffuse search, maybe you use "good" lineups but will you recognize them and concentrate on them? Recognizing them often requires extend use. If they "appear" golden, does that hold up? I'll take statistical evidence and bigger samples over eye tests of lots more dink lineups.

But whatever you use, you need to update that evaluation. The statistical data will change and hopefully you track it and react to it in some fashion. I hope the eye test updates. There might be lag or resistance with either but it may be harder / slower to argue effectively about subjective judgments and disagreements.

Either coaches think currently bad to terrible performing lineups are sufficiently better than that to justify continued use or they don't know the data (or don't trust / use it) or they aren't making those judgments yet.

Same with strong lineups. Either you react to the available evidence or you don't react or don't know or just don't feel a need or willingness to change.

It is real early but the evidence trickles in. Fwiw to everyone.

[Crow]

Wizards, 4 of 5 most used lineups positive... but none used over 4 minutes per game for season. Total of 113 lineups used. Dink lineup performance weakness overpowers top lineups.

Seems logical to me to try greater concentration of the bigger minute, best performing lineups. Instead it has been mostly dink chaos. As usual.

Westbrook - Beal barely positive.

[Crow]

I'd make the Head Coach file a brief rationale for each use of a lineup outside the 20 most used. You could make it every lineup used every time but I'd try to use the writeup requirement to reduce dink use first.

[Crow]

Sabonis raw on / off is worst on team. New team style working far better with him off in general. Mainly worse when he is on court with Turner or Warren but not both.

[Crow]

Knicks lineups analysis in the last couple of hours on twitter @bballstrategy.