The Unrestricted Area Podcast with guest John Hollinger
The Unrestricted Area Podcast with guest John Hollinger
PODCAST: The Unrestricted Area: NBA Team-Building: Philosophies And Approaches, with John Hollinger & Ray LeBov: https://buzzsprout.com/1517914/9141137
Re: The Unrestricted Area Podcast with guest John Hollinger
Guys over 35 making near $50 million / year in a few years will be a bigger competitive issue for current win now teams, but there is a bigger issue coming.
After new national TV deal kicks in, the max salaries for 2025-26 and beyond will skyrocket. How fast will depend on how TV deal is structured and how the new CBA is configured. But top salaries will likely push into high 50s, 60s or beyond.
There are only a few current top 50 players I'd give max level, long term deals to 5 years from now. Giannis, yes. Anthony Davis? I am guessing I would not but Lakers may. Booker, J Murray? I probably wouldn't. Zion? Probably, but wait n see. Doncic? I guess but watch on health.
Teams that decided to re-up current aging stars recently should generally not plan to do it again at new max levels. Moving on from them or getting salary cuts will be the better options. How deep the cuts? It depends. Back to $35 mil or $25 mil or less.
New maxes could become pretty rare. Maybe I am wrong on that. We'll see.
I'd plan on trying to have a big 3 on current CBA deals for as long as possible (signed by summer 2024), most or all on 25% first level maxes.
I'd be very wary of giving max deals in summer 2025 or after to many guys over 32 or even 30. Or first time maxes unless really sure about team impact and contention. Few in 2021 draft class or maybe none.
Tatum and Donovan Mitchell? I'd probably have pretty serious doubts about extending again. And so trade consideration would arise before that time. Adebayo? Unlikely. D Fox? Hell no. The current deal is already whack. Another new CBA max or near max to Ben Simmons? Not in my mind. Brandon Ingram? Hard to imagine giving it to him. But, yes, it is a long way til then.
Podcast perhaps could have talked more about desirability of further draftees onto near-term contenders. These teams seem quite content to be mostly without near term picks. Generally have enough young talent in the door to not really need more and prefer vets in most cases, for readiness and pay reasons. New TV deal rookie contracts could further turn off contenders to using them much. 8 figures / yr for mid-lottery guys?
After new national TV deal kicks in, the max salaries for 2025-26 and beyond will skyrocket. How fast will depend on how TV deal is structured and how the new CBA is configured. But top salaries will likely push into high 50s, 60s or beyond.
There are only a few current top 50 players I'd give max level, long term deals to 5 years from now. Giannis, yes. Anthony Davis? I am guessing I would not but Lakers may. Booker, J Murray? I probably wouldn't. Zion? Probably, but wait n see. Doncic? I guess but watch on health.
Teams that decided to re-up current aging stars recently should generally not plan to do it again at new max levels. Moving on from them or getting salary cuts will be the better options. How deep the cuts? It depends. Back to $35 mil or $25 mil or less.
New maxes could become pretty rare. Maybe I am wrong on that. We'll see.
I'd plan on trying to have a big 3 on current CBA deals for as long as possible (signed by summer 2024), most or all on 25% first level maxes.
I'd be very wary of giving max deals in summer 2025 or after to many guys over 32 or even 30. Or first time maxes unless really sure about team impact and contention. Few in 2021 draft class or maybe none.
Tatum and Donovan Mitchell? I'd probably have pretty serious doubts about extending again. And so trade consideration would arise before that time. Adebayo? Unlikely. D Fox? Hell no. The current deal is already whack. Another new CBA max or near max to Ben Simmons? Not in my mind. Brandon Ingram? Hard to imagine giving it to him. But, yes, it is a long way til then.
Podcast perhaps could have talked more about desirability of further draftees onto near-term contenders. These teams seem quite content to be mostly without near term picks. Generally have enough young talent in the door to not really need more and prefer vets in most cases, for readiness and pay reasons. New TV deal rookie contracts could further turn off contenders to using them much. 8 figures / yr for mid-lottery guys?