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Rookies 2023
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:42 am
by Mike G
With about 13% of the season's games played, rookies are producing at a pace of about 41 equivalent-wins for the season.
The Eastern Conference is getting about 60% of these eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.5 Paolo Banchero Orl 381 .543 21.6 9.2 3.1 .8 3.2 1.0 1.60
4.7 Bennedict Mathurin Ind 283 .597 20.8 4.6 2.4 .5 2.9 .1 .97
4.1 Jaden Ivey Det 318 .519 14.2 5.3 3.5 1.8 2.8 .6 .82
3.1 Tari Eason Hou 196 .536 12.1 9.7 1.1 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.01
2.4 Walker Kessler Uta 132 .671 12.8 11.1 1.5 .5 1.3 3.5 1.26
2.1 Keegan Murray Sac 257 .563 12.4 5.0 1.4 .9 2.1 1.0 .42
1.8 AJ Griffin Atl 72 .712 22.6 3.4 1.4 2.2 .5 .0 1.46
1.6 Shaedon Sharpe Por 202 .562 13.9 4.9 .8 .7 1.4 .5 .46
1.4 Andrew Nembhard Ind 171 .518 9.0 3.9 4.8 1.2 1.4 .2 .47
1.3 Jalen Duren Det 167 .518 9.5 9.7 .2 .2 2.0 2.4 .48
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Jake LaRavia Mem 151 .712 11.7 7.2 .7 .7 .9 .4 .51
1.2 Jeremy Sochan SAS 226 .481 7.5 6.1 2.1 1.5 1.3 .8 .34
1.0 Dyson Daniels NOP 47 .679 13.8 8.1 3.3 2.0 2.1 1.4 1.22
.7 Jabari Smith Jr. Hou 297 .424 8.3 7.0 .8 .2 1.6 1.4 .16
.7 Jalen Williams OKC 119 .573 11.8 3.0 2.1 2.0 2.4 .6 .36
.7 Christian Koloko Tor 195 .443 6.2 8.0 1.0 .5 1.6 2.9 .24
The average NBA player is good for 1.00 eW per 484 minutes played
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:41 am
by Crow
3 of top 6 here I had significantly higher on draft board than Twitter consensus and actual pick number. 1 about the same, 2 lower.
Smith at 14th here is worst under-performance to date, at least for those making appearances in top 15. Davis, Dieng and Duren are lottery picks who did not make top 15 here.
Banchero 13th on BPM. Smith 30th. Other under-performers to date out there.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:29 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 5:41 am
Banchero 13th on BPM. Smith 30th. ...
Where do you find such a list?
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:08 am
by Crow
https://www.basketball-reference.com/dr ... _2022.html
Click BPM column (or whatever else you want) to sort / rank.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:20 am
by Mike G
Thanks, I just found it.
Among rookies with at least 60 minutes, he's 4th in BPM and in WS/48 -- behind Kessler, Eason, Griffin.
Ranking guys with 4 or 6 total minutes is not very meaningful. That's why I multiply by minutes, for total impact.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:20 am
by Crow
Often I'll qualify a list but sometimes I don't. Real early, many of the minute totals are trivial, even if way more than the super trivial.
Banchero at 4th for guys with semi-meaningful minutes is closer to my big board rank of 5th than it is the actual selection and the many media boards that had him 1st or 2nd.
Big role, big individual game level stats don't necessarily mean big positive impact.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 4:21 am
by Crow
DARKO projection has Banchero at 119th overall but 2nd most improved over pre-season estimate.
Very impressed with first 7 games, rising about 3 points; but not impressed with next 4, giving back a point. Not sure I see reason for the very different views. We'll probably get stronger estimates after 20 and 40 games.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:07 am
by Mike G
With the season at 22%, rookies are on pace to produce 45 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
5.8 Paolo Banchero Orl 381 .543 22.3 9.1 3.2 .8 3.1 .9 1.62
5.4 B Mathurin Ind 475 .593 23.0 5.0 1.9 .6 2.9 .1 1.14
4.3 Jaden Ivey Det 603 .512 15.1 5.5 4.0 1.3 2.9 .4 .83
4.0 Tari Eason Hou 313 .516 13.6 9.7 1.5 2.7 1.6 .9 1.26
2.5 Walker Kessler Uta 258 .664 12.0 11.6 1.4 .5 1.6 3.4 1.15
2.2 Jabari Smith Hou 483 .456 10.0 8.3 .8 .4 1.4 1.3 .46
2.2 Jalen Duren Det 381 .562 9.0 11.3 .5 .8 1.5 1.6 .68
2.0 AJ Griffin Atl 237 .614 17.3 4.1 1.3 1.7 1.4 .1 .90
1.8 Jalen Williams OKC 345 .584 13.1 3.8 3.0 1.2 2.1 .5 .54
1.7 A Nembhard Ind 282 .577 10.8 3.8 4.5 1.5 1.5 .1 .60
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.3 Shaedon Sharpe Por 357 .576 14.0 4.4 .7 .4 1.4 .4 .40
1.1 Keegan Murray Sac 443 .529 11.2 4.6 1.1 1.0 1.9 .7 .26
1.1 Dyson Daniels NOP 143 .566 9.8 8.2 2.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 .84
1.0 Jeremy Sochan SAS 447 .507 9.0 6.0 1.9 1.2 2.3 .7 .24
.8 C Koloko Tor 317 .487 7.0 7.8 .8 .4 1.3 2.6 .28
.8 Nikola Jović Mia 145 .518 12.6 6.3 2.1 1.2 1.9 .0 .61
.7 Jamal Cain Mia 80 .554 12.3 7.1 1.9 2.2 .8 .0 .93
.7 Jake LaRavia Mem 254 .557 9.0 6.1 1.5 1.1 1.6 .4 .27
.6 Jabari Walker Por 76 .548 9.3 9.1 3.4 .4 .9 .4 .78
.5 M Beauchamp Mil 227 .470 10.5 6.7 .8 1.0 2.5 .3 .23
This presumes Banchero continues to play in only 61% of games.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:03 pm
by Crow
Griffin's short minutes impact ranking, as do many meh to weak stats. Long-term value? Too early to say with confidence.
Heat's ability to find and use cheap new players helps a little in context of their over-pays of Lowry, Robinson and Herro, all negative on team +/- ob the court and on / off. DRIP still favorable on Lowry (may need movement down) but only neutral on Herro and -1 on Robinson.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2022 7:03 pm
by Mike G
Season 28.5% complete, rookies project to add 46 equivalent wins to their teams.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
5.3 Paolo Banchero Orl 586 .540 19.7 7.2 3.1 .8 3.0 .6 1.28
4.8 Be. Mathurin Ind 645 .560 20.2 4.9 1.6 .8 2.4 .1 1.01
3.8 Tari Eason Hou 428 .497 12.5 10.4 1.3 2.3 1.5 .7 1.19
3.6 Jaden Ivey Det 667 .509 14.5 5.5 3.9 1.3 3.1 .3 .79
3.0 Walker Kessler Uta 364 .725 13.0 11.6 1.1 .4 1.4 3.7 1.27
2.9 Jabari Smith Hou 655 .498 11.1 8.5 .8 .4 1.4 1.1 .59
2.3 AJ Griffin Atl 356 .601 16.8 3.7 1.1 2.0 1.4 .1 .87
2.3 Jalen Duren Det 476 .574 9.0 10.8 .8 .9 1.6 1.5 .71
2.0 Jalen Williams OKC 479 .601 13.8 4.2 2.9 .9 2.3 .4 .56
1.8 Andrew Nembhard Ind 411 .588 10.8 3.9 4.7 1.3 1.8 .3 .58
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 Keegan Murray Sac 567 .533 12.0 5.4 .9 1.0 2.0 .8 .39
1.6 Dyson Daniels NOP 281 .582 9.5 7.5 3.5 1.3 1.4 .6 .75
1.1 Shaedon Sharpe Por 462 .541 12.6 4.5 .7 .5 1.3 .4 .34
1.1 Jeremy Sochan SAS 497 .504 8.8 5.9 2.1 1.4 2.2 .7 .30
1.0 Chr. Koloko Tor 387 .496 7.2 8.2 .7 .4 1.2 2.5 .34
By b-r.com position designation:
PF 15.7
SG 15.4
C 6.8
SF 6.4
PG 1.8
Pels' Daniels with almost all the
point guard minutes and eWins. With better assist rates, Nembhard and Ivey have 16% and 14% of their minutes at PG, respectively.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2022 2:17 pm
by Mike G
Right at 3/8 of the season, rookies project to total 48.6 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.3 Paolo Banchero Orl 871 .544 19.9 7.3 3.4 1.0 3.1 .7 1.36
4.3 Be. Mathurin Ind 898 .541 18.5 5.0 1.5 .8 2.2 .1 .87
3.7 Walker Kessler Uta 523 .721 13.4 12.2 1.0 .5 1.3 3.8 1.38
3.7 Tari Eason Hou 566 .512 13.0 10.1 1.3 2.1 1.6 .9 1.14
3.2 Jaden Ivey Det 844 .499 14.1 5.2 3.8 1.2 3.1 .3 .70
3.1 Jabari Smith Hou 880 .502 11.3 8.7 .7 .5 1.5 1.1 .61
3.0 Jalen Duren Det 667 .600 9.4 12.5 .9 .9 1.8 1.3 .84
2.4 AJ Griffin Atl 580 .571 15.6 3.7 1.3 1.8 1.4 .2 .75
2.0 Keegan Murray Sac 780 .557 12.6 5.0 .7 1.0 1.6 .8 .44
2.0 Jalen Williams OKC 730 .569 12.6 4.1 2.9 .9 2.1 .5 .49
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 An. Nembhard Ind 666 .581 10.6 4.1 4.4 1.4 2.0 .3 .53
1.4 Dyson Daniels NOP 441 .592 9.2 6.3 3.3 1.2 1.5 .4 .54
1.2 Shaedon Sharpe Por 600 .529 12.2 4.8 .8 .7 1.2 .4 .37
1.1 Jeremy Sochan SAS 576 .484 8.4 6.4 2.5 1.2 2.2 .7 .32
.8 Ma. Beauchamp Mil 295 .520 12.8 6.6 1.2 1.3 2.6 .2 .49
.8 Ch. Koloko Tor 504 .489 6.4 7.7 .9 .5 1.1 2.7 .29
.7 David Roddy Mem 559 .494 10.2 5.2 1.1 .5 1.4 .6 .22
.6 Nikola Jović Mia 184 .525 12.5 5.6 1.7 1.3 1.9 .2 .54
.5 Moussa Diabaté LAC 90 .579 12.4 12.3 .7 1.2 1.9 .4 1.00
.5 A.J. Green Mil 69 .745 21.3 3.8 1.7 .5 1.0 .0 1.15
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:56 am
by Crow
Jabari Smith near -4 / 100p on BPM. Near -1 on DRIP. A bit worse than -2 on EPM. Near -3 on Darko and 62nd of 66 rookies on that projection.
To interpret that set of marks, one could evaluate the metrics as part of the process.
Offensive usage is a big part of the score, though the metrics vary on reward for that per se and efficiency. Defense surely varies; and while some are probably better than others, not sure how good even the best are.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:08 am
by Mike G
Jabari Smith starts over fellow rookie Tari Eason, though it looks like Eason is better at everything. Their on/off rates are spectacularly different, the Rockets about 26 pts/100 better with Eason instead of Smith.
Yet the team is projecting about 5 wins better than predicted (avg.), and the coach doesn't seem to be an idiot. Maybe their bench is keeping them in games and winning a few.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:08 am
by DarkStar48
Code: Select all
Rookie Tm Min BR-BPM BP-BPM 538_RAPTOR
Eason Hou 566 -0.1 0.4 3.5
Kessler Uta 523 2.3 0.7 2.6
Banchero Orl 871 0.5 0.9 -0.2
Mathurin Ind 898 -3.0 -1.3 -0.2
BR-BPM: Basketball Reference Box Plus-Minus
BP-BPM: Backpicks Box Plus-Minus
RAPTOR: FiveThirtyEight Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings
It’s looking like Kessler and Eason (No. 22 & 17) may be the best rookies so far.
Re: Rookies 2023
Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:38 pm
by Mike G
My spreadsheet estimates that Eason has played against (and with) about 46% starting players.
This is somewhat corroborated by seeing his 4 highest minute games (23-29 min) have all been double-digit losses.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... melog/2023
Sorting by GameScore returns a similar breakdown, plus a 2*OT win over Philly.
A lot of players, perhaps most, will rack up better numbers against bench players. Jabari Smith is estimated at 79% vs starters. Banchero plays the most minutes in close games, est. 76% vs opposing starters. Mathurin 54%, Kessler 50%
It's hard to generalize what those numbers mean. Kessler is certainly in elite FG% territory, but his points are entirely within a few feet of the basket. Check out the new b-r.com shooting pages! --
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... oting/2023
Only potential weak point I can see is that in close games (< 5 pts) he has
only hit 64%
-- well, and he's a 54% FT shooter.