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2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:37 am
by Mike G
EDIT: Placing this 'Best Games' table up top for easy reference. Chronologically, this year's entries in Top 100 playoff Game Scores (since 1985).
Code: Select all
date player tm opp Min TS% Pts Rb As St Bk TO BPM GmSc *rk
4-20 Booker Phx LAC 44 .701 45 6 3 3 2 0 15.3 39.4 74
4-22 Morant Mem LAL 42 .700 45 9 13 0 0 3 25.5 40.8 49
4-24 Butler Mia Mil 41 .780 56 9 2 0 1 1 21.0 48.2 7
4-25 Booker Phx LAC 44 .793 47 8 10 2 0 3 17.2 42.9 25
5-05 Booker Phx Den 42 .908 47 6 9 3 1 3 26.6 44.3 21
5-07 Harden Phl Bos 47 .848 42 8 9 4 1 1 28.1 43.9 23
5-07 Jokic Den Phx 39 .742 53 4 11 0 1 6 18.7 42.4 31
5-14 Tatum Bos Phl 42 .746 51 13 5 2 0 0 28.1 46.0 13
5-16 Jokic Den LAL 42 .828 34 21 14 0 2 5 19.0 39.8 73
5-22 LeBron LAL Den 48 .712 40 10 9 2 0 1 20.0 38.8 92
* - Rank as of the date of occurrence. Booker's 1st entry has slipped into the 80's.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
(scroll down to Playoffs)
Game Score is enabled by big offensive production, so top-100 appearances are very much era-dependent:
Code: Select all
year # multiples
2023 10 Booker 3, Jokic 2
2022 4 Butler 3
2021 9 Durant 2
2020 8 Butler 2, Murray 2, Mitchell 2
2019 4 Durant 2
2018 8 LeBron 5
2017 2
2016 3 LeBron 2
2015 2 Harden 2
2014 1
2013 0
2012 1
2011 1
2010 2
2009 3 LeBron 2
2008 1
2007 0
2006 3
2005 1
2004 0
2003 2
2002 1
2001 5
2000 2
1999 0
1998 1
1997 1
1996 0
1995 4 K Johnson 2
1994 3 Olajuwon 2
1993 4 Barkley 2, Jordan 2
1992 3
1991 0
1990 4 Ewing 2
1989 4 Jordan 3
1988 3
1987 3
1986 2
1985 1
ESPN Experts fresh off their showing in the team win prediction contest, move to the NBA playoff (and play-in) field. They number 17, so they should have a nice wide range of predictions.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/361 ... und-series
Play-ins are one game matches. Here's how they voted:
Code: Select all
West play-in East play-in
LAL 17 - 0 Min Mia 17 - 0 Atl
NOP 11 - 5 OKC Tor 11 - 6 Chi
Well, an 0-17 start has been overcome before; maybe.
For the known first-round matchups:
Code: Select all
West Rd 1 East Rd 1
GS Sac # Phl Brk #
4 0 0 4 0 0
4 1 0 4 1 16
4 2 11 4 2 1
4 3 4 4 3 0
3 4 1 3 4 0
2 4 1 2 4 0
1 4 0 1 4 0
0 4 0 0 4 0
Phx LAC # Cle NYK #
4 0 0 4 0 0
4 1 0 4 1 0
4 2 11 4 2 4
4 3 5 4 3 9
3 4 0 3 4 3
2 4 0 2 4 1
1 4 0 1 4 0
0 4 0 0 4 0
Just a bit of herd mentality perhaps?
Re: 2023 Playoffs
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 11:38 am
by v-zero
I had money on Minnesota, thought they had about a 35% chance. They blew it in the second half of a messy game, but for my eye the game was closer than the bookies expected, who gave LA implied odds of around 77%.
I concurred with the books with regards to Miami vs Atlanta, giving Miami about a 66% chance. Clearly Atlanta had other thoughts, but I had no horse in that race.
Re: 2023 Playoffs
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 1:11 pm
by Mike G
Wolves with 16 points in the last 19 minutes -- after 44 in the first 19 -- is perhaps to be expected when all 5 starters are going 41-45 minutes. Fatigue is a huge factor in such games.
Hawks with 63-39 rebound advantage would be their 2nd best, and Heat's 2nd worst TRb%, of the year.
Re: 2023 Playoffs
Posted: Wed Apr 12, 2023 1:41 pm
by v-zero
Rosters aren't confirmed, but assuming Nance is healthy I have today's games as follows:
Raptors 68% over Bulls 32%
Pelicans 70% over OKC 30%
Broadly speaking both are in line with the bookies, but I like the Pelicans to the tune of about 4% more than they do. They really ought to have seen off Minnesota in their last regular season game.
Edit: No money on these in the end, the odds and my predictions converged (to within the margin of uncertainty in my predictions). Two upsets, exciting so far.
Re: 2023 Playoffs
Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:32 pm
by Mike G
I don't know if these odds are updated after games played. If not, these are just pre-playoff probabilities of going to the Finals and winning the Finals. After one game by all:
Code: Select all
West go win East go win
Den .296 .114 Bos .406 .308
Mem .188 .076 Phl .173 .109
Sac .170 .057 Cle .157 .108
Phx .106 .035 Mil .112 .065
LAC .080 .018 NYK .109 .058
GSW .062 .018 Mia .022 .007
LAL .070 .016 Brk .013 .005
Min .027 .005 Atl .009 .002
EDIT: They are in fact updated daily.
Re: 2023 Playoffs
Posted: Tue Apr 18, 2023 2:07 am
by Mike G
Good Game or Bad Game?
1st playoff game for everyone. In playoffs an avg NBA player has avg PER ~13, ws/48 ~.80, and BPM is still 0.0
Code: Select all
tm player PER ws/48 BPM e480
Min Edwards 20.3 .072 8.6 1.59
Min K Anderson 16.8 .055 6.4 .80
Den C Braun 12.6 .305 4.6 .38
GSW Curry 16.3 .012 -0.3 1.16
GSW Wiggins 15.7 -.002 -1.5 .86
Phx Booker 16.7 .002 2.6 .91
LAC Westbrook 8.3 -.085 0.0 1.20
LAC E Gordon 15.2 .187 3.4 .55
LAC Zubac 13.1 .058 -3.2 1.43
tm player PER ws/48 BPM e480
Brk Bridges 29.4 .094 3.8 1.62
Brk C Johnson 22.3 .081 3.6 1.13
Brk Seth Curry 23.1 .072 6.1 .59
Bos Tatum 13.0 .130 -1.6 1.33
Bos Horford 9.9 .165 2.3 .36
Atl Murray 20.5 .043 7.0 1.84
Atl Bogdanovich 13.4 .037 5.0 .70
Mia Adebayo 18.3 .072 -0.2 2.10
Mia C Martin 14.3 .145 -1.1 .50
Mia Lowry 7.4 .112 0.0 -.45
Mil Middleton 26.4 .081 5.0 2.46
Mil Matthews 16.7 .156 8.7 .55
NYK Randle 9.7 -.016 -0.7 1.45
NYK Barrett 9.1 .059 3.4 .99
NYK Grimes 7.9 .153 -1.0 .28
NYK Hartenstein 16.9 .293 1.9 .76
Bring on the Small Sample Size banshees.
Re: 2023 Playoffs
Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2023 4:26 pm
by Mike G
2-game leaders:
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.50 Jamal Murray Den 36 .646 39.8 6.5 6.6 1.0 2.7 .5 3.35
.49 Donovan Mitchell Cle 42 .598 28.3 3.2 9.7 2.6 1.8 .9 2.86
.41 Kawhi Leonard LAC 40 .657 31.9 7.1 4.9 1.8 2.8 .5 2.44
.41 Joel Embiid Phl 35 .648 31.9 15.0 5.6 .8 5.4 2.6 2.78
.39 Nikola Jokić Den 33 .541 24.9 14.9 8.3 .6 2.3 .0 2.81
.38 De'Aaron Fox Sac 38 .544 28.6 3.1 6.0 3.2 2.4 .5 2.40
.35 Anthony Edwards Min 35 .656 31.3 2.1 4.1 2.1 1.1 2.1 2.46
.35 LeBron James LAL 37 .570 25.9 12.0 3.6 1.2 3.4 2.0 2.30
.34 Derrick White Bos 36 .746 31.7 5.3 4.2 .6 2.8 2.6 2.29
.32 Tobias Harris Phl 31 .695 30.3 11.4 3.8 .5 .6 .6 2.49
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.31 Jimmy Butler Mia 36 .625 28.5 4.8 5.4 2.6 2.1 .0 2.10
.30 Jaren Jackson Mem 39 .620 23.9 6.5 2.9 1.2 1.4 2.4 1.90
.30 Kevin Durant Phx 45 .619 21.5 6.2 5.5 .8 2.4 1.6 1.62
.30 Devin Booker Phx 44 .667 28.3 .8 4.2 2.1 3.3 1.2 1.62
.30 Anthony Davis LAL 37 .515 16.9 10.8 2.6 1.2 2.8 6.0 1.93
.29 Dejounte Murray Atl 38 .520 23.4 6.3 4.6 3.2 2.0 .0 1.86
.29 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .587 26.9 8.5 3.4 .5 3.1 .5 1.79
.28 Jalen Brunson NY 33 .490 25.6 4.1 4.5 2.8 1.9 .0 2.02
.27 Darius Garland Cle 40 .662 28.4 1.4 3.8 2.2 4.3 .5 1.59
.26 Jrue Holiday Mil 34 .526 18.4 6.7 10.9 1.1 2.2 .0 1.83
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.25 Jarrett Allen Cle 39 .639 12.6 11.5 3.4 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.55
.25 Malik Monk Sac 30 .676 29.7 5.4 2.5 .0 1.7 .6 2.00
.25 Tyrese Maxey Phl 37 .667 25.6 5.4 1.6 1.2 .0 .5 1.64
.24 Rui Hachimura LAL 31 .817 29.2 6.3 1.5 .4 .6 .0 1.88
.23 Khris Middleton Mil 31 .583 26.9 9.4 5.0 .0 3.6 .0 1.84
.23 Mikal Bridges Brk 38 .646 26.5 4.8 3.4 .6 3.0 .5 1.45
.23 Ru. Westbrook LAC 37 .457 14.9 9.6 5.9 1.0 2.6 2.5 1.51
.23 Michael Porter Den 30 .630 19.7 12.1 1.2 1.2 .0 .0 1.81
.23 Jaylen Brown Bos 37 .580 26.7 6.6 2.3 2.2 5.6 1.0 1.48
.22 Marcus Smart Bos 32 .543 15.0 5.9 6.7 3.8 1.9 1.1 1.61
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.21 Stephen Curry GS 39 .630 27.1 4.1 3.2 .0 5.0 .5 1.30
.21 Bobby Portis Mil 28 .667 18.3 15.4 2.4 .7 .7 1.3 1.83
.21 Domantas Sabonis Sac 38 .486 15.9 13.0 2.6 1.4 3.4 .0 1.32
.21 James Harden Phl 38 .456 16.1 5.3 10.5 2.0 4.6 .0 1.31
.20 Cam Johnson Brk 34 .742 26.6 4.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 .5 1.42
At least one player from each team. Dubs with the worst best player.
After somewhat crude conversions to "wins", the avg of 4 summary stats:
Code: Select all
xyzW per36 rates e480 eWin PER perW ws/48 WS BPM bpmW
.51 Donovan Mitchell 2.86 .49 26.5 .41 .314 .54 16.1 .59
.45 Kawhi Leonard 2.44 .41 30.3 .47 .260 .43 13.8 .51
.45 Jamal Murray 3.35 .50 29.0 .40 .333 .50 11.4 .40
.40 Anthony Edwards 2.46 .35 31.3 .42 .256 .37 14.2 .45
.38 Derrick White 2.29 .34 26.1 .35 .303 .45 9.5 .35
.36 Tobias Harris 2.49 .32 29.3 .34 .365 .46 9.8 .31
.35 Joel Embiid 2.78 .41 26.1 .34 .268 .39 6.8 .28
.35 De'Aaron Fox 2.40 .38 24.3 .34 .204 .32 9.5 .37
.35 Rui Hachimura 1.88 .24 29.1 .34 .333 .43 13.1 .38
.33 Jaren Jackson 1.90 .30 23.7 .33 .218 .35 8.1 .34
xyzW per36 rates e480 eWin PER perW ws/48 WS BPM bpmW
.33 Kevin Durant 1.62 .30 21.7 .34 .181 .34 6.2 .34
.33 Nikola Jokić 2.81 .39 24.1 .29 .280 .39 6.2 .25
.33 Tyrese Maxey 1.64 .25 22.7 .29 .292 .44 8.1 .32
.32 Devin Booker 1.62 .30 23.2 .37 .158 .29 6.4 .34
.31 Jimmy Butler 2.10 .31 28.3 .38 .218 .32 5.0 .24
.31 Jarrett Allen 1.55 .25 19.5 .26 .261 .42 6.5 .31
.31 LeBron James 2.30 .35 23.7 .31 .151 .23 8.8 .34
.29 Dejounte Murray 1.86 .29 22.9 .31 .118 .19 9.9 .38
.29 Malik Monk 2.00 .25 25.3 .28 .299 .37 7.6 .26
.28 Torrey Craig 1.59 .20 24.9 .27 .259 .32 11.5 .33
xyzW per36 rates e480 eWin PER perW ws/48 WS BPM bpmW
.27 Anthony Davis 1.93 .30 22.0 .29 .151 .23 5.0 .25
.26 Jalen Brunson 2.02 .28 21.6 .25 .156 .21 8.2 .30
.25 Michael Porter 1.81 .23 20.4 .21 .267 .33 6.4 .23
.25 Marcus Smart 1.61 .22 20.1 .22 .232 .31 6.8 .26
.25 Jrue Holiday 1.83 .26 22.2 .27 .185 .26 4.1 .21
.24 Darius Garland 1.59 .27 16.8 .21 .148 .25 4.1 .25
.24 Cam Johnson 1.42 .20 22.7 .27 .123 .17 8.2 .30
.23 Jayson Tatum 1.79 .29 18.1 .23 .147 .24 1.2 .17
.22 Mikal Bridges 1.45 .23 20.7 .27 .089 .14 3.6 .22
.22 Bobby Portis 1.83 .21 23.6 .23 .205 .23 4.8 .18
.21 Klay Thompson 1.25 .20 16.0 .18 .128 .20 4.6 .25
.20 Ru. Westbrook 1.51 .23 18.0 .21 .061 .09 5.1 .25
.18 Khris Middleton 1.84 .23 21.8 .23 .091 .12 0.6 .12
Re: 2023 Playoffs
Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2023 4:11 pm
by Mike G
Last 5 days have seen 3 of the top 75 playoff Game Scores of all time (since 1985):
Code: Select all
date player tm opp Min TSA eFG% TS% Pts Rb As St Bk TO BPM GmSc
4-20 Booker Phx LAC 44 32 .672 .701 45 6 3 3 2 0 15.3 39.4
4-22 Morant Mem LAL 42 32 .615 .700 45 9 13 0 0 3 25.5 40.8
4-24 Butler Mia Mil 41 36 .732 .780 56 9 2 0 1 1 21.0 48.2
Both were in game 3's of their series. Ja's is top 50, and it's his highest playoff GS; Booker's 2nd best.
Booker had 2 rebounds total in G 1-2, and 15 in G 3-4. Ties his lowest 2-G total for the year, followed by almost his best.
His 45 points without a TO may be unprecedented?
Last night's Morant performance by quarters:
Code: Select all
Q Min FG FGA FT FTA Pts Reb Ast +/-
1 6.9 1 2 2 2 4 1 1 -15
2 12.0 3 8 4 4 12 3 4 +10
3 12.0 0 4 5 6 5 2 5 -4
4 10.6 9 12 2 2 24 3 3 +12
Grizz were +3 points in Ja's 41.5 minutes and -13 in the 6.5 min. he sat.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 20LAL.html
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2023 12:28 pm
by Mike G
Jimmy Butler with the 7th highest playoff GmSc since 1985; just above Jordan's 2nd-best.
Last year, he had 3 of the 4 biggest PO games (Morant the other).
Line added to table in previous post.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Tue Apr 25, 2023 12:43 pm
by Mike G
4-game leaders.
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
1.00 Jimmy Butler Mia 35 .692 39.5 6.5 4.3 1.8 1.9 .3 3.44
.97 Nikola Jokić Den 36 .628 28.1 13.0 7.8 1.0 3.3 .0 3.33
.89 Anthony Edwards Min 40 .617 28.9 4.1 4.1 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.77
.75 LeBron James LAL 39 .545 23.4 12.3 4.5 .9 2.7 1.7 2.40
.73 Devin Booker Phx 44 .659 30.5 3.8 4.1 2.2 2.8 1.0 2.02
.70 Jamal Murray Den 38 .567 25.0 6.6 6.1 1.0 2.9 .5 2.29
.70 De'Aaron Fox Sac 39 .534 27.4 5.6 5.6 2.6 2.9 .2 2.18
.65 Jalen Brunson NY 37 .542 27.3 4.7 5.2 2.1 2.9 .2 2.13
.62 Anthony Davis LAL 39 .494 17.9 11.5 2.2 1.6 3.2 4.5 1.98
.61 Jayson Tatum Bos 40 .579 25.8 8.3 3.4 .7 3.2 .9 1.86
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.61 Tobias Harris Phl 34 .648 24.7 11.2 2.3 .5 .6 .5 2.16
.59 Michael Porter Den 35 .643 20.7 9.1 1.4 .8 .0 .8 2.08
.59 Kevin Durant Phx 44 .653 24.4 7.1 5.0 .8 3.4 .8 1.62
.56 Stephen Curry GS 40 .640 29.4 4.1 3.0 .6 3.0 .5 1.71
.55 Ru. Westbrook LAC 38 .545 22.5 7.8 5.8 1.5 3.6 1.7 1.74
.55 Trae Young Atl 37 .519 24.3 3.7 7.5 1.7 3.9 .5 1.80
.54 Donovan Mitchell Cle 41 .515 21.2 4.0 6.8 2.0 3.8 .4 1.59
.53 Dejounte Murray Atl 38 .543 21.4 6.8 4.3 2.1 2.3 .2 1.67
.52 James Harden Phl 36 .476 18.7 6.6 9.3 1.5 3.9 .3 1.72
.50 Joel Embiid Phl 27 .588 24.9 13.6 4.3 1.0 5.5 2.4 2.24
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.48 Tyrese Maxey Phl 37 .596 23.5 5.9 1.8 1.5 1.1 .2 1.57
.47 Ja Morant Mem 29 .562 26.6 5.6 6.3 1.6 4.1 .3 2.01
.46 Marcus Smart Bos 32 .596 19.3 5.1 6.1 2.7 1.8 .6 1.72
.43 Mikal Bridges Brk 39 .531 21.4 4.6 3.5 .5 2.0 .5 1.30
.42 Darius Garland Cle 37 .536 22.1 1.7 5.1 2.2 3.1 .2 1.35
.41 Khris Middleton Mil 33 .593 22.4 7.0 5.3 .8 3.9 .0 1.49
.40 Derrick White Bos 34 .725 22.8 4.1 3.5 .6 2.0 1.4 1.42
.39 Rudy Gobert Min 34 .602 15.0 12.8 2.0 .0 1.4 1.3 1.42
.38 Domantas Sabonis Sac 37 .500 14.4 11.9 3.8 1.7 3.8 .5 1.25
.37 Kawhi Leonard LAC 20 .657 31.5 6.5 4.6 1.9 2.8 .5 2.23
Minutes are /4 to get the mpg column.
Alternative top 30 including all top 20 in eWins, Win Shares, or "bpm Wins":
Code: Select all
xyzW thru 4 Gms tm PER eWin e480 WS ws/48 bW BPM
.97 Jimmy Butler Mia 37.5 1.00 3.44 1.10 .377 .81 11.7
.89 Nikola Jokić Den 28.7 .97 3.33 .89 .298 .82 11.6
.86 Anthony Edwards Min 28.8 .89 2.77 .74 .222 .96 12.3
.83 Devin Booker Phx 27.8 .73 2.02 .90 .248 .86 9.2
.68 LeBron James LAL 23.0 .75 2.40 .61 .191 .68 7.7
.67 Tobias Harris Phl 24.7 .61 2.16 .83 .294 .59 7.6
.65 Jalen Brunson NY 21.8 .65 2.13 .62 .203 .67 8.1
.65 Kevin Durant Phx 22.1 .59 1.62 .72 .198 .63 5.4
.62 De'Aaron Fox Sac 23.4 .70 2.18 .47 .148 .68 7.8
.58 Michael Porter Den 19.7 .59 2.08 .65 .221 .49 5.0
xyzW thru 4 Gms tm PER eWin e480 WS ws/48 bW BPM
.56 Jamal Murray Den 20.7 .70 2.29 .52 .164 .47 4.0
.56 Tyrese Maxey Phl 19.0 .48 1.57 .68 .222 .50 4.7
.52 Stephen Curry GS 20.3 .56 1.71 .50 .153 .50 4.2
.50 Marcus Smart Bos 21.4 .46 1.72 .54 .203 .49 6.2
.49 Anthony Davis LAL 19.9 .62 1.98 .40 .125 .45 3.4
.49 Dejounte Murray Atl 21.2 .53 1.67 .35 .111 .59 6.1
.48 Ru. Westbrook LAC 22.2 .55 1.74 .30 .093 .60 6.3
.47 Rui Hachimura LAL 22.3 .35 1.54 .58 .253 .49 7.7
.46 Jayson Tatum Bos 19.6 .61 1.86 .40 .121 .38 1.9
.46 Xavier Tillman Mem 17.2 .31 1.13 .56 .199 .51 6.0
xyzW thru 4 Gms tm PER eWin e480 WS ws/48 bW BPM
.45 Donovan Mitchell Cle 15.7 .54 1.59 .25 .074 .58 5.3
.44 Trae Young Atl 21.8 .55 1.80 .28 .093 .50 4.9
.44 Jarrett Allen Cle 16.0 .28 .87 .57 .178 .47 3.8
.43 Torrey Craig Phx 21.3 .27 1.16 .57 .248 .46 6.9
.43 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30.2 .37 2.23 .40 .242 .52 13.8
.42 Ja Morant Mem 20.5 .47 2.01 .27 .113 .52 7.8
.41 RJ Barrett NY 15.9 .37 1.34 .47 .170 .38 3.3
.40 James Harden Phl 14.7 .52 1.72 .36 .119 .34 1.7
.38 Joel Embiid Phl 19.9 .50 2.24 .37 .164 .26 1.9
.38 Caleb Martin Mia 19.6 .28 1.20 .50 .215 .35 3.9
BPM adjusts to strength of opponent, so Sixers (vs Nets) don't look as good in BPM Wins.
PER is added for perspective, but no "wins" are calculated; so sue me.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2023 11:35 am
by Mike G
(waiting for b-r.com to update)
Correlation of various metrics to player minutes :
Code: Select all
avg tm PER WS/48 BPM e484 W%
.69 Min .73 .64 .58 .81 .20
.63 Phx .68 .54 .64 .69 .80
.63 Cle .76 .36 .61 .80 .20
.62 Den .64 .54 .56 .75 .80
.55 Phl .42 .39 .74 .64 1.00
.43 Mil .55 .38 .26 .54 .20
.41 Brk .39 .29 .39 .56 .00
.36 NYK .40 .19 .25 .59 .80
.30 LAC .34 .11 .40 .34 .80
.23 Atl .29 .11 .07 .43 .33
.21 Mia .27 .07 .18 .34 .80
.06 Bos .24 -.50 -.22 .73 .67
W% correl.: -.28 -.17 .08 -.16
Minutes correlation here means "agrees with head coach". Lack of correlation with "success" suggests a high % is not better or worse than low%.
Only included players in regular rotation, typically >10 mpg. Kawhi is excluded.
(I've only done this for series concluded before last night.)
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2023 12:39 pm
by Mike G
Late update: In the closeout Phx-LAC game, Devin Booker had 47-8-10 on super-efficient shooting.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 50PHO.html
It was his best playoff Game Score ever and 25th best by anyone (since 1985).
He bumped Ja out of the top 50 and himself out of the top 75!
(See the best games Table now at the top of the thread.)
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:25 pm
by Mike G
Data Dump!
Summary stats for teams moving on to the 2nd round (incomplete awaiting GS-Sac).
Code: Select all
. Knicks rd1 Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jalen Brunson NYK 188 20.1 .186 6.6 1.97
Josh Hart NYK 175 13.3 .143 0.9 .80
RJ Barrett NYK 169 16.1 .171 3.5 1.38
Julius Randle NYK 143 9.6 -.002 -1.7 1.26
Mitchell Robinson NYK 141 22.4 .248 5.9 1.62
Immanuel Quickley NYK 118 8.1 .085 -3.1 .33
Isaiah Hartenstein NYK 99 13.6 .154 2.6 .86
Obi Toppin NYK 86 19.4 .201 7.5 1.40
Quentin Grimes NYK 62 7.1 .082 -2.1 .25
Miles McBride NYK 12 13.2 .198 5.5 .55
DaQuan Jeffries NYK 4 -7.9 .054 -21.8 -1.59
Derrick Rose NYK 3 -43.4 -1.08 -56.2 .22
. totals NYK 1200 14.8 .142 2.3 1.18
. Heat rd1 Min PER WS/48 BPM e490
Jimmy Butler Mia 186 33.5 .295 10.2 3.26
Bam Adebayo Mia 158 16.2 .041 -2.2 1.53
Max Strus Mia 148 7.2 .061 -3.4 -.32
Gabe Vincent Mia 143 10.0 .014 -2.7 .32
Caleb Martin Mia 133 17.1 .192 2.8 1.01
Kevin Love Mia 109 18.4 .203 5.5 1.56
Kyle Lowry Mia 106 9.7 .022 -3.1 .23
Duncan Robinson Mia 101 16.4 .152 4.0 .95
Victor Oladipo Mia 45 14.1 .058 -5.3 .74
Cody Zeller Mia 37 13.6 .115 -0.2 .82
Haywood Highsmith Mia 34 18.4 .207 5.3 .96
Tyler Herro Mia 19 19.4 .130 2.8 1.40
Omer Yurtseven Mia 3 9.8 .154 7.9 -.21
Udonis Haslem Mia 2 -30.8 -1.02 -44.0 .51
. totals Mia 1225 16.6 .125 1.3 1.14
. Sixers rd1 Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Tyrese Maxey Phl 148 19.0 .222 4.7 1.57
James Harden Phl 144 14.7 .119 1.7 1.72
Tobias Harris Phl 135 24.7 .294 7.6 2.16
Joel Embiid Phl 108 19.9 .164 1.9 2.24
P.J. Tucker Phl 106 10.3 .133 1.5 .70
De'Anthony Melton Phl 102 16.3 .203 4.9 .86
Jalen McDaniels Phl 66 6.1 .075 -4.2 .00
Paul Reed Phl 66 24.8 .250 1.5 1.70
Georges Niang Phl 62 6.1 .089 -4.9 -.29
Montrezl Harrell Phl 7 -16.0 -.367 -25.0 -.71
Shake Milton Phl 7 23.7 .427 2.9 1.43
Danuel House Phl 5 -2.9 -.105 -15.3 -.06
Furkan Korkmaz Phl 2 .0 .053 -10.3 -1.08
Jaden Springer Phl 2 .0 .053 -10.8 -1.08
. totals Phl 960 16.3 .176 2.16 1.32
. Celtics rd1 Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jayson Tatum Bos 237 20.9 .140 3.1 1.80
Jaylen Brown Bos 227 17.8 .070 -0.7 1.27
Al Horford Bos 196 12.7 .123 3.2 .72
Derrick White Bos 196 18.1 .162 3.1 1.13
Marcus Smart Bos 186 20.1 .174 3.4 1.39
Malcolm Brogdon Bos 156 15.5 .107 -1.8 .87
Robert Williams Bos 137 20.2 .213 4.1 1.14
Sam Hauser Bos 63 9.2 .104 -1.2 -.05
Grant Williams Bos 36 20.8 .260 7.4 .79
Blake Griffin Bos 6 -2.8 -.052 -18.1 -.49
Luke Kornet Bos 1 .0 -.009 -8.3 -.98
Mike Muscala Bos 1 .0 -.009 -3.7 -.98
Payton Pritchard Bos 0
. totals Bos 1440 17.5 .138 1.9 1.14
. Suns rd1 Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Kevin Durant Phx 219 22.1 .196 5.3 1.56
Devin Booker Phx 216 30.4 .274 10.7 2.24
Chris Paul Phx 193 15.3 .098 1.2 1.00
Deandre Ayton Phx 172 14.1 .056 -4.8 .99
Torrey Craig Phx 127 17.8 .198 4.5 .85
Josh Okogie Phx 100 13.7 .145 0.5 .46
Bismack Biyombo Phx 55 21.9 .188 3.0 1.69
Landry Shamet Phx 55 1.6 -.075 -8.4 -.38
Damion Lee Phx 35 3.4 .023 -7.1 -.40
Jock Landale Phx 8 21.3 .141 1.4 1.49
Ish Wainright Phx 7 -5.7 -.235 -11.9 -.09
T.J. Warren Phx 6 -11.2 -.185 -18.3 -1.10
Terrence Ross Phx 4 -6.3 -.225 -15.1 -.32
Cameron Payne Phx 3 20.0 .251 8.2 .62
. totals Phx 1200 18.3 .146 2.28 1.17
. Nuggets rd1 Min PER WS/48 BPM e487
Jamal Murray Den 192 22.0 .188 5.3 2.28
Nikola Jokić Den 185 28.1 .275 11.5 3.21
Michael Porter Den 180 16.6 .182 2.9 1.55
Kentavious C-Pope Den 165 8.8 .070 -2.5 .16
Aaron Gordon Den 163 15.2 .184 -0.9 .96
Bruce Brown Den 135 14.7 .125 1.1 .73
Jeff Green Den 113 3.1 -.002 -6.0 -.62
Christian Braun Den 63 10.6 .129 -0.5 -.07
DeAndre Jordan Den 10 8.6 -.054 -4.9 .07
Reggie Jackson Den 4 7.9 -.071 5.9 -.90
Zeke Nnaji Den 4 54.1 .210 35.1 3.41
Ish Smith Den 4 -10.6 -.205 -19.0 -1.0
Peyton Watson Den 4 7.9 .013 -0.5 -.01
Vlatko Čančar Den 2 -13.3 -.441 -22.0 -.18
. totals Den 1225 16.0 .151 2.1 1.25
. Lakers rd1 Min PER WS/48 BPM e488
LeBron James LAL 223 20.1 .158 5.6 2.10
Austin Reaves LAL 219 14.9 .152 2.0 1.15
Anthony Davis LAL 218 23.1 .197 5.6 2.37
D'Angelo Russell LAL 187 15.3 .127 1.4 1.41
Rui Hachimura LAL 153 18.4 .215 5.1 1.04
Dennis Schröder LAL 133 7.1 .055 -2.7 -.03
Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 119 14.7 .150 3.4 .93
Troy Brown Jr. LAL 88 6.8 .080 -0.9 .01
Malik Beasley LAL 66 5.9 .035 -5.3 -.21
Wenyen Gabriel LAL 21 15.4 .110 -5.0 .36
Lonnie Walker IV LAL 15 13.7 .133 0.1 .31
Max Christie LAL 12 18.6 .219 7.9 .87
Mo Bamba LAL 10 3.0 -.036 -3.1 .20
Shaq. Harrison LAL 3 8.2 -.030 3.0 .53
. totals LAL 1465 15.6 .143 2.4 1.21
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Mon May 01, 2023 6:13 pm
by Mike G
About 150 players averaged at least 5 minutes per (team) game in the first round. So this top 30 in eWins per game is the top 20%.
Players knocked out of the playoffs are shown with a minus, like: Min-
Code: Select all
eW/G per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.248 Jimmy Butler Mia .657 37.0 6.5 3.9 1.8 2.4 .4 3.26
.243 Nikola Jokić Den .565 25.6 14.0 8.7 1.2 2.9 .4 3.21
.204 Anthony Edwards Min- .592 27.3 4.7 4.5 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.51
.202 Devin Booker Phx .686 32.5 4.4 5.0 2.1 2.8 .8 2.24
.179 Jamal Murray Den .591 26.3 6.1 6.0 1.0 2.6 .4 2.28
.176 Anthony Davis LAL .546 21.8 13.2 2.0 1.3 2.6 4.4 2.37
.160 LeBron James LAL .543 23.4 10.5 5.2 1.0 3.3 1.3 2.10
.154 Jalen Brunson NY .526 25.7 4.6 5.2 2.0 2.8 .2 1.97
.153 Stephen Curry GS .613 30.9 4.0 4.0 .7 3.2 .4 1.88
.152 Tobias Harris Phl .648 24.7 11.2 2.3 .5 .6 .5 2.16
eW/G per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.148 Jayson Tatum Bos .572 23.5 8.9 4.5 .7 2.4 1.1 1.80
.142 Kevin Durant Phx .660 23.9 6.5 4.7 .8 3.0 .8 1.56
.139 Donovan Mitchell Cle- .513 21.3 4.3 6.4 1.9 3.5 .5 1.62
.137 Trae Young Atl .513 24.3 3.5 8.5 1.5 4.0 .6 1.72
.135 De'Aaron Fox Sac .518 23.1 4.9 6.4 2.2 3.8 .5 1.69
.129 James Harden Phl .476 18.7 6.6 9.3 1.5 3.9 .3 1.72
.126 Joel Embiid Phl .588 24.9 13.6 4.3 1.0 5.5 2.4 2.24
.121 Tyrese Maxey Phl .596 23.5 5.9 1.8 1.5 1.1 .2 1.57
.120 Ja Morant Mem- .517 23.9 6.0 6.7 1.8 3.4 .2 1.88
.114 Michael Porter Den .607 17.0 9.5 1.2 1.0 .0 .6 1.55
eW/G per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.111 Ru. Westbrook LAC- .502 18.8 7.8 6.3 1.2 3.8 1.3 1.39
.111 Khris Middleton Mil- .589 23.2 6.4 5.3 .6 3.6 .0 1.57
.106 Mikal Bridges Brk- .531 21.4 4.6 3.5 .5 2.0 .5 1.30
.101 Dejounte Murray Atl- .535 19.2 6.9 5.7 1.8 2.0 .2 1.53
.100 Jaylen Brown Bos .608 25.1 4.9 2.7 1.2 3.6 .5 1.27
.099 Bam Adebayo Mia .494 17.7 10.9 4.8 1.9 4.1 .7 1.53
.097 RJ Barrett NY .530 20.5 5.2 3.4 1.4 1.8 .2 1.38
.095 Mi. Robinson NY .597 11.5 14.5 1.4 1.5 .9 2.9 1.62
.094 Rudy Gobert Min- .630 14.9 12.7 1.9 .4 1.7 1.0 1.30
.092 Domantas Sabonis Sac- .509 15.3 11.0 4.4 1.6 3.9 .9 1.27
Kawhi, Giannis, and others who missed games have those zeroes averaged in.
Same list with other stats:
Code: Select all
. 1st round tm G mpg PER WS/48 BPM e484
Jimmy Butler Mia 5 37 33.5 .295 10.2 3.26
Nikola Jokić Den 5 37 28.1 .275 11.5 3.21
Ant. Edwards Min 5 40 27.3 .190 10.4 2.51
Devin Booker Phx 5 43 30.4 .274 10.7 2.24
Jamal Murray Den 5 38 22.0 .188 5.3 2.28
Anthony Davis LAL 6 36 23.1 .197 5.6 2.37
LeBron James LAL 6 37 20.1 .158 5.6 2.10
Jalen Brunson NYK 5 38 20.1 .186 6.6 1.97
Stephen Curry GSW 7 39 21.3 .153 6.1 1.88
Tobias Harris Phl 4 34 24.7 .294 7.6 2.16
. 1st round tm G mpg PER WS/48 BPM e484
Jayson Tatum Bos 6 40 20.9 .140 3.1 1.80
Kevin Durant Phx 5 44 22.1 .196 5.3 1.56
Do. Mitchell Cle 5 41 15.8 .059 4.8 1.62
Trae Young Atl 6 38 20.9 .066 3.6 1.72
De'Aaron Fox Sac 7 39 18.9 .093 5.0 1.69
James Harden Phl 4 36 14.7 .119 1.7 1.72
Joel Embiid Phl 4 27 19.9 .164 1.9 2.24
Ja Morant Mem 6 31 18.5 .083 6.3 1.88
Tyrese Maxey Phl 4 37 19.0 .222 4.7 1.57
Michael Porter Den 5 36 16.6 .182 2.9 1.55
. 1st round tm G mpg PER WS/48 BPM e484
Khr. Middleton Mil 5 35 19.1 .106 1.6 1.57
Ru. Westbrook LAC 5 38 17.6 .021 2.1 1.39
Mikal Bridges Brk 4 39 16.4 .028 1.4 1.30
Bam Adebayo Mia 5 32 16.2 .041 -2.2 1.53
Dej. Murray Atl 6 32 20.4 .099 5.1 1.53
Jaylen Brown Bos 6 38 17.8 .070 -0.7 1.27
RJ Barrett NYK 5 34 16.1 .171 3.5 1.38
Rudy Gobert Min 5 35 18.1 .145 0.3 1.30
Mi. Robinson NYK 5 28 22.4 .248 5.9 1.62
Dom. Sabonis Sac 7 35 16.0 .064 0.7 1.27
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Posted: Mon May 01, 2023 11:09 pm
by Crow
Correlation of various metrics to player minutes: Might not be strong after first round but I'd guess correlation will be higher after second round and beyond winners.
I'd have concern about the Celtics absolute bottom number. Strong benches will help produce a low number but a low number is still sub-optimal and probably points to issues with one or more starters.
150 playing to your minutes cutoff is 9.4 per team. 8.9 over 60 minutes total, so it is on average basically a 9 man playoff rotation by a low standard. 6.7 over 100 minutes are the main force. 4.2 over 150.
Average first round games per series was 5.4, so it turns my cutoffs into fairly close to 12, 20 and 30 minutes per game.