2015 Finals: Cavs vs Warriors

[Mike G]

Preview of rosters, playoff numbers:

Code: Select all

Cavs     Min     PER    e480   eWins    WS    WS/48    BPM  VORP
LeBron   569    24.8    2.91   3.42    2.15    .181    9.7   1.7
Shumpert 480    12.9     .64    .64    1.52    .152    3.9    .7
Thompson 480    15.9     .85    .84    1.90    .190    2.3    .5
Irving   421    20.3    1.61   1.40    1.90    .217    4.2    .7
Mozgov   360    16.2    1.13    .84    1.13    .151     .7    .2

Smith    358    17.0    1.16    .86    1.43    .192    5.0    .6
Dellav'a 306     8.9     .36    .23     .47    .074   -1.9    .0
Jones    198    10.8     .30    .12     .62    .150    1.2    .2
Love     107    19.9    1.89    .42     .49    .220    3.8    .2
Miller    37     9.8     .25    .02     .12    .157   -3.3    .0

Perkins   30     3.7    -.13   -.01    -.05   -.084  -12.5   -.1
Marion    24     6.0    -.18   -.01     .01    .011   -2.2    .0
Harris    12    12.0    1.33    .03     .02    .067   -6.2    .0

Cavs    3380    16.6    1.25   8.81   11.70    .166    3.47  
  

GSW      Min     PER    e480   eWins    WS    WS/48    BPM  VORP
Curry    571    26.4    2.60   3.06    3.09    .260    9.7   1.7
Green    562    16.7    1.49   1.73    1.81    .155    5.9   1.1
Thompson 534    15.9    1.26   1.39    1.37    .123    1.6    .5
Barnes   484    12.8     .67    .67    1.16    .115    1.4    .4
Iguodala 412    14.0     .84    .72    1.33    .155    3.2    .5

Bogut    366    14.7    1.16    .88    1.19    .156    5.0    .7
Living'n 254    11.8     .38    .20     .63    .119    -.6    .1
Barbosa  165    12.4     .54    .18     .37    .108   -2.9    .0
Ezeli    134    15.6     .92    .26     .38    .137   -1.5    .0
Lee       68     9.6     .56    .08     .08    .054   -5.7   -.1

Speights  51    14.4    1.48    .16     .06    .054   -5.1    .0
McAdoo     9    20.2    1.33    .02     .02    .102   -6.7    .0
Holiday    9     2.2    -.61   -.01    -.02   -.101   -8.8    .0
Rush       7    -4.6     .36    .01    -.03   -.217  -28.5    .0

GSW     3625    16.3    1.24   9.34   11.44    .151    3.23    

[Crow]

So by playoff to date Cavs lead on 6 of 7 metrics? What if you adjust all by SOS (stealing a mention of this from you in other thread)?

[Mike G]

Since the Warriors avoided the other western powerhouses (LAC and SAS), their playoff SOS has not been a lot harder than the Cavs': avg SRS 2.86 vs 2.30 for Cle.
Probably makes it about a tossup; except for home court to GS.

[Mike G]

Warriors 1, Cavs 0
gm 1: 108 - 100
Pyth wins .74 - .26, eWins .62 - .38

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.21   LeBron James    Cle   46  .512   32.6   6.5   4.3   1.6   .0   3.4   .0   2.39
.17   Stephen Curry   GSW   43  .591   24.4   3.5   8.1    .8  1.7   3.4   .0   2.09
.16   Kyrie Irving    Cle   43  .511   17.5   6.1   4.7   4.2  3.4    .9  1.6   1.99
.11   Klay Thompson   GSW   38  .583   20.2   6.0   1.1   1.0  1.0   1.0  2.0   1.58
.08   Timofey Mozgov  Cle   33  .571   17.5   8.1   1.9   1.1   .0   1.2  1.0   1.31

.08   Andre Iguodala  GSW   32  .833   21.6   3.5   2.5   2.2   .0   1.1  1.1   1.34
.05   Andrew Bogut    GSW   28  .400    4.3   9.6   4.8   2.6  1.3   1.3  2.7    .95
.05   Festus Ezeli    GSW   12  .833   20.7  15.0   3.2   2.9   .0   2.9   .0   2.00
.04   Draymond Green  GSW   39  .400    9.0   5.9   3.6   4.7  1.9    .9   .0    .60
.04 Marreese Speights GSW    9  .500   30.6  12.0   4.6   7.6   .0   3.8   .0   2.57

eWins   per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.04  Shaun Livingston GSW   16  .333    6.3  11.3   8.0    .0   .0    .0   .0   1.38
.03   Harrison Barnes GSW   39  .611    9.9   5.9   1.1   1.9   .9    .0   .0    .45
.01  Matt Dellavedova Cle    9           .0   3.9  10.2   3.8   .0    .0   .0    .30
-.00  Leandro Barbosa GSW    9  .250    4.9  12.0   4.7    .0   .0   7.6   .0   -.15
-.00 Tristan Thompson Cle   47  .250     .8  12.0    .7   2.3   .8   1.7   .7   -.05

-.01   Iman Shumpert  Cle   35  .500    5.4   2.2    .0   2.1  4.2   2.3  1.0   -.19
-.02   J.R. Smith     Cle   35  .346    5.6   4.2    .0   2.0   .0    .0   .0   -.37
-.03   James Jones    Cle   17  .000     .0   2.1   1.8   8.1  2.0   2.2   .0  -1.02

shooting: GS .545 - .483 Cle
rebounds/48: GS 43.5 - 40.8 Cle
turnovers: 12-12

[Mike G]

Warriors 1, Cavs 1
avg score : GS 100.5 - 97.5 Cle
Pyth wins 1.20 - .80, eWins 1.10 - .90

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.59   LeBron James    Cle   48  .483   29.9   9.2   6.7   1.9   .4   3.2   .4   3.26
.34   Klay Thompson   GSW   42  .579   24.0   4.7   1.5   2.2  1.3    .4  1.3   2.14
.24   Stephen Curry   GSW   43  .459   18.6   4.2   7.2   2.1   .9   4.4   .4   1.48
.23   Timofey Mozgov  Cle   31  .589   21.7  10.9   1.1   1.2   .0   2.1   .6   1.93
.21   Kyrie Irving    Cle   22  .511   18.9   6.0   5.4   4.2  3.4   1.0  1.7   2.54

.14   Draymond Green  GSW   41  .440    8.9   7.0   2.7   4.4  3.1   2.3  1.3    .89
.12   Andre Iguodala  GSW   34  .759   15.3   4.6   4.2   3.6   .5   2.7   .5    .95
.07   Andrew Bogut    GSW   27  .375    3.3  11.4   3.3   4.1   .7   2.1  2.7    .72
.05   Harrison Barnes GSW   40  .564    9.4   5.4    .6   3.2   .9    .0   .0    .30
.04   Festus Ezeli    GSW    9  .700   17.0   9.4   2.2   7.6   .0   2.0   .0   1.19

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.04  Shaun Livingston GSW   15  .389    7.2   7.1   5.8    .0  1.2   2.5   .0    .73
.03 Marreese Speights GSW    7  .364   15.8   7.2   3.0   4.9  2.4   2.5   .0   1.32
.03   Leandro Barbosa GSW    8  .583   18.3   9.0   2.7   2.3   .0   4.7   .0   1.07
.01  Tristan Thompson Cle   44  .182     .7  12.3    .4   3.3   .8   1.0   .8    .05

-.01   Iman Shumpert  Cle   36  .361    4.8   2.6    .6   1.5  3.6   1.2  1.0   -.05
-.01   James Jones    Cle   20  .500    6.6   1.8   1.8   7.1  2.7   1.1   .0   -.20
-.05   J.R. Smith     Cle   37  .407    8.0   4.0    .0   3.9   .5   1.2   .0   -.36
-.05 Matt Dellavedova Cle   26  .409    5.5   4.3   2.9   2.8  2.1   5.0   .0   -.51

shooting: GS .517 - .459 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.3 - 42.1 GS
turnovers: Cle 14.5 - GS 15.5

[DSMok1]

Single Game Box Plus/Minus assessments:





Sorry about the bad links the first time.

[Mike G]

It would be nice to see boxscore corroboration that these guys are contributing. They haven't been statistically productive though. In 2 games, their rates at b-r.com have dropped:

Code: Select all

Cleveland - thru conf. finals .. after 2 G Finals
Cavs        PER   WS/48  BPM     PER   WS/48  BPM
T Thompson 15.9   .190   2.3    14.5   .168   1.7
Shumpert   12.9   .152   3.9    12.3   .136   3.5
Dellavedova 8.9   .074  -1.9     8.1   .054  -2.0

Each player has lost 5-10% of his WS/48 in the last 15-18% of his playoff minutes.

[Mike G]

Regarding the colorful charts above:
- In an 8 point loss, the Cavs total 5 fewer 'points generated' than GS
- In a 2 point win, they had 5 more than GS.

Is the game 2 win equally impressive because of HCA?


The Cavs now have HCA for the series. Yet b-r.com still gives them just 15% chance to win it.

[Mike G]

The Warriors have 4 guys going over 40 mpg in the first 2 games. Even with the overtimes, that means some key reserves have seen fewer than their usual minutes.

Their advantage in the series is their depth. So why shouldn't they be subbing more freely?
I'm predicting more minutes from Barbosa, Livingston, Speights, and Ezeli. Maybe David Lee will appear! Just to make the Cavs work harder.

[Mike G]

Cavs 2, Warriors 1
avg score: GSW 97.3 - 97.0 Cle
Pyth wins 1.53 - 1.47, eWins 1.51 - 1.49

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e513
.98   LeBron James    Cle   47  .484   32.2   9.3   7.2   1.5   1.3   3.4   .8   3.56
.42   Stephen Curry   GSW   43  .522   22.4   4.5   5.9   2.0   1.4   4.6   .3   1.67
.36   Klay Thompson   GSW   41  .543   20.3   4.8   1.3   2.7    .9    .6  1.2   1.51
.23   Timofey Mozgov  Cle   31  .574   17.3   8.9   1.2   1.9    .4   3.2  1.9   1.27
.22   Andre Iguodala  GSW   35  .673   15.5   4.7   4.3   2.7    .3   1.7   .7   1.09

.21   Kyrie Irving    Cle   14  .511   20.0   6.0   5.8   4.3   3.4   1.0  1.7   2.55
.18   Draymond Green  GSW   37  .397    8.4   7.5   2.9   4.6   2.6   2.0  1.3    .83
.11   Andrew Bogut    GSW   24  .455    4.9  11.7   2.8   4.1    .5   1.6  2.5    .82
.11   David Lee       GSW    4  .846   40.7   9.8   4.9  12.2   2.4    .0   .0   4.33
.06   Festus Ezeli    GSW   12  .500   11.5  10.8   1.9   4.5    .0   2.8  1.8    .90

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e513
.05  Matt Dellavedova Cle   30  .475   11.7   4.4   3.5   2.8   1.2   3.8   .0    .29
.05  Tristan Thompson Cle   44  .368    3.1  11.8    .6   2.5    .6   1.0   .6    .19
.04  Shaun Livingston GSW   14  .423    7.9   6.0   4.9   2.2    .7   2.3   .0    .42
.03   Leandro Barbosa GSW    9  .423   12.0   5.9   1.3   2.4   1.2   2.4  1.2    .56
.03 Marreese Speights GSW    5  .364   14.7   6.5   2.4   4.3   2.1   2.2   .0   1.00

.01   James Jones     Cle   17  .714   12.0   1.9   1.4   7.1   1.9   1.5   .0    .13
-.00   J.R. Smith     Cle   35  .444    9.0   4.0    .4   3.0    .3    .8   .7   -.02
-.02   Mike Miller    Cle    4  .000     .0   2.7    .0   2.7   2.7    .0   .0   -.73
-.04   Iman Shumpert  Cle   34  .381    4.6   2.8    .4   2.5   3.5   1.7   .7   -.21
-.04  Harrison Barnes GSW   33  .400    6.4   5.5    .4   3.3    .7   1.1   .0   -.23

shooting: GS .503 - .483 Cle
rebounds: Cle 44.6 - 43.3 GS
turnovers: 15.0-15.0

With a 13-minute outing, D Lee's playoff rates have gone from woeful to respectable:

Code: Select all

Min   PER    WS/48   BPM
68    9.6    .054   -5.7
81   15.5    .160   -0.9

After 2 games, LeBron had eWins equal to Curry + K Thompson. Now you can throw in Iguodala (almost).
He's finally pulling away as the WS leader of his own team:

Code: Select all

. Cle     PER   WS/48   BPM
LeBron   25.8   .189   10.6
Thompson 14.4   .167    1.8
Smith    14.6   .154    3.1
Jones    10.7   .149    1.4
Mozgov   16.4   .146    0.7
Shumpert 11.8   .128    3.5
Delly     8.8   .060   -1.8

Irving   20.9   .218    4.9
Love     20.0   .218    3.6

In 3 games, he's gotten 9 minutes of rest, then 4 1/2, and last night just 2.

[DSMok1]

Game 3 BPM:

[Mike G]

Regarding the colorful charts above:
- In an 8 point loss, the Cavs total 5 fewer 'points generated' than GS
- In a 2 point win, they had 5 more than GS.
- In a 5 pt win at home, Cavs w 2 more PG

Are these adjusted for HCA ?

[DSMok1]

Regarding the colorful charts above:
- In an 8 point loss, the Cavs total 5 fewer 'points generated' than GS
- In a 2 point win, they had 5 more than GS.
- In a 5 pt win at home, Cavs w 2 more PG

Are these adjusted for HCA ?

Yes, they are. I used HCA of 3.25 points/100 poss. They are also adjusted for SoS based on who actually played in the game (based on regular season BPM ratings)--that's why everything is positive for most offense/defense units. That doesn't effect the relative values of the players in the game vs. each other, but does effect the numbers I show, which should be valid vs. an average NBA player like BPM always is.

The expected team ratings based on lineup last night and regular season BPM: GSW +13.7 / +8.6 O / +5.1 D. CLE +5.5 / +5.5 O / +0.0 D.

[Mike G]

Warriors 2, Cavs 2
avg score: GS 98.8 - 93.3 Cle
Pyth wins 2.73 - 1.27, eWins 2.36 - 1.64

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
1.05  LeBron James    Cle   46  .464   27.0   9.5   6.1   2.2   1.0   2.9   .6   2.90
.57   Stephen Curry   GSW   43  .540   22.8   3.7   6.2   1.7   1.3   4.3   .2   1.70
.44   Timofey Mozgov  Cle   32  .598   22.4   9.4   1.0   2.3    .6   3.3  1.3   1.73
.38   Andre Iguodala  GSW   36  .678   18.4   5.3   3.3   3.0    .5   1.5   .5   1.33
.37   Draymond Green  GSW   36  .451   11.3   7.3   4.1   4.8   2.5   1.5  1.3   1.29

.37   Klay Thompson   GSW   41  .538   17.1   3.9   1.6   2.0    .7    .5  1.1   1.14
.21   David Lee       GSW    7  .606   31.0  10.8   6.8   7.4   1.2    .0   .0   3.78
.20   Kyrie Irving    Cle   11  .511   19.3   5.9   4.8   4.2   3.4   1.0  1.6   2.34
.14  Shaun Livingston GSW   17  .474    9.7   8.1   5.9   3.1   1.0   2.1   .5   1.09
.12  Tristan Thompson Cle   43  .448    4.6  11.7    .4   2.1    .4    .7   .6    .34

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
.11   Andrew Bogut    GSW   19  .455    4.8  11.5   3.4   5.4    .5   2.0  2.5    .77
.08   Festus Ezeli    GSW    9  .500   12.7  11.5   2.2   4.9    .0   3.0  2.0   1.12
.05   Harrison Barnes GSW   33  .468    8.6   6.1    .6   3.0    .5    .8   .6    .18
.04 Marreese Speights GSW    4  .321   15.0  10.4   2.5   6.4   2.1   2.2   .0   1.38
.04   Leandro Barbosa GSW    8  .406   12.1   5.1   2.4   3.1   1.0   2.1  1.1    .62

.01  Matt Dellavedova Cle   31  .429   10.5   3.5   3.3   2.6   1.2   3.7   .0    .06
-.02   Mike Miller    Cle    4  .000     .0   2.4    .0   2.4   2.4    .0   .0   -.80
-.03   James Jones    Cle   17  .556    7.9   3.1   1.0   6.2   1.6   1.8   .5   -.24
-.06   J.R. Smith     Cle   33  .375    7.0   3.8    .8   3.5    .3    .6   .5   -.23
-.07   Iman Shumpert  Cle   36  .350    3.8   3.8    .5   2.3   2.6   1.2   .7   -.25

shooting: GS .518 - .462 Cle
rebounds/48: Cle 45.6 - 43.5 GS
turnovers: GS 13.0 - 13.5 Cle

[DSMok1]

Single Game Box Plus/Minus


Amazing across-the-board performance from the Warriors, and a miserable performance from the Cleveland backcourt.