2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

[Mike G]

Mavs 3 - 2 Thunder
avg score : OKC 104.0 - 103.8 Dal
Pyth wins 2.53 - 2.47 , eWins 2.52 - 2.48

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.16  Shai G-A       OKC   41  .579   30.9   8.0   6.2   1.3   2.4  2.2   2.72
.85   Luka Dončić    Dal   41  .520   21.9   9.8   7.3   1.5   3.8   .5   1.98
.51  P.J. Washington Dal   37  .618   20.2   9.3   1.9    .8   1.9   .4   1.33
.43  Daniel Gafford  Dal   24  .602   18.5  11.8   2.0    .3   1.9  3.3   1.69
.41  Jalen Williams  OKC   38  .476   14.0   5.7   4.8   1.6   1.5   .6   1.04

.41   Chet Holmgren  OKC   36  .565   14.9   6.8   2.1    .8   1.6  2.8   1.08
.30   Kyrie Irving   Dal   40  .541   13.7   2.3   6.1   1.1   2.3   .7    .73
.16   Josh Giddey    OKC   13  .500   17.8   6.4   3.6    .6   1.8  1.1   1.20
.15  Jaylin Williams OKC   13  .571   11.8  10.9   4.1    .5    .5   .0   1.12
.14   Derrick Jones  Dal   30  .524   12.2   3.8   1.7    .7   1.3  1.7    .46

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.13   Dereck Lively  Dal   22  .442    9.0  10.0   1.8    .3   2.2  1.8    .55
.12   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   18  .591   14.6   5.7   1.0   1.1   2.0   .7    .63
.10   Josh Green     Dal   18  .589   12.4   3.8   3.5   1.1   1.1   .0    .53
.10   Luguentz Dort  OKC   35  .464    9.0   5.3   2.0   1.5   1.4   .4    .26
.05   Tim Hardaway   Dal   17  .528   12.0   3.8   1.1    .7    .8   .0    .28

.05   Isaiah Joe     OKC   18  .571   11.1   4.4   1.8    .8   1.2   .0    .27
.00   Dante Exum     Dal    5  .417    7.9   3.3   2.1    .0    .0   .0    .02
-.02  Jaden Hardy    Dal    4  .125     .9   4.3   2.7    .0   1.5   .0   -.54
-.03  Cason Wallace  OKC   21  .543    6.5   2.2   1.2   1.0    .4   .3   -.14

shooting : Dal .536 - .534 OKC
rebounds: Dal 44.8 - 42.4 OKC
turnovers: OKC 10.0 - 13.6 Dal

Code: Select all

. Dal      mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . OKC     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Dončić     41   18.2   .101    6.8   1.98      Shai G-A  41   28.1   .246   11.8   2.72
Irving     40   12.0   .084    1.6    .73   Jal Williams 38   13.7   .079    0.9   1.04
Washington 37   16.6   .140    4.9   1.33      Holmgren  36   16.3   .129    2.3   1.08
Jones      30   10.9   .071    0.7    .46      Dort      35    8.0   .051   -2.4    .26
Gafford    24   20.7   .180    4.8   1.69      Wallace   21    8.0   .075   -1.7   -.14
Lively     22   11.1   .054   -3.1    .55      Joe       18   10.0   .081   -1.1    .27
Green      18   12.6   .126    3.3    .53      Wiggins   18   14.5   .100    1.1    .63
Hardaway   17   10.6   .064   -1.4    .28   Jay Williams 13   17.3   .212    5.3   1.12
Exum        5    7.2   .040   -3.0    .02      Giddey    13   15.1   .002    2.5   1.20
Hardy       4   -9.2  -.265  -17.3   -.54      Hayward    3    -.2  -.090   -9.5   -.32
.                                             K Williams  2    3.6  -.024   -2.2    .21
. totals  238   13.8   .095    2.2    .99     . totals  239   14.9   .112   2.23   1.01

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html

[Mike G]

Wolves 3 - 3 Nuggets
avg score 103.5 - 98.8 : this is after the 115-70 game
Pyth wins 3.89 - 2.11 , eWins 3.45 - 2.55

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.46  Nikola Jokić   Den   39  .597   28.3  10.3   7.1   1.7   3.5   .9   3.02
1.29  Ant. Edwards   Min   40  .652   31.1   4.7   4.9   1.4   2.8   .6   2.57
.76   Aaron Gordon   Den   34  .739   20.4   6.6   4.8   1.2   1.6   .9   1.82
.73   Karl-A Towns   Min   34  .588   20.0  10.3   3.3    .8   1.9   .4   1.72
.44   Mike Conley    Min   26  .602   14.1   4.8   8.1   1.2   1.7   .5   1.32

.41   Rudy Gobert    Min   28  .598   11.2  13.5   2.1    .9   1.6  1.3   1.18
.28   Jamal Murray   Den   37  .445   13.9   4.6   4.4   1.4   2.7   .2    .62
.25   Naz Reid       Min   22  .528   14.8   7.5   1.2   1.0   1.5  1.2    .90
.11  Jaden McDaniels Min   31  .528   10.3   4.8   1.5   1.2   1.4  1.8    .29
.08   Kyle Anderson  Min   14  .425    6.1   6.6   5.8   2.3   2.3   .7    .45

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04  Kentavious C-P  Den   34  .617    8.7   3.7   2.9    .9    .8   .5    .11
.04  Christian Braun Den   20  .569    8.5   5.2   1.0    .5    .3   .8    .15
.03  Michael Porter  Den   35  .527   10.7   5.7   1.1    .8   2.4  1.0    .08
.03   Monte Morris   Min    6  .375    9.5   2.6   3.8   1.6    .0   .0    .41
.03  Reggie Jackson  Den   10  .481   11.6   5.3   2.3    .5   2.1   .0    .23

.00   Peyton Watson  Den    5  .056     .2  12.0    .9    .0    .0  1.9    .05
-.01  Nickeil A -W   Min   27  .556   10.3   2.6   2.5    .0   1.8  1.1   -.04
-.05 Justin Holiday  Den   17  .593    8.3   5.2    .9    .3   1.0   .0   -.22

shooting : Min .571 - .554 Den
rebounds: Min 42.2 - 39.3 Den
turnovers: Min 12.2 - 13.0 Den

Code: Select all

. Den     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jokić     39   29.1   .228   11.3   3.02      Edwards  40   25.4   .223    8.8   2.57
Murray    37    9.4  -.053   -4.0    .62      Towns    34   18.3   .160    3.1   1.72
Porter    35    7.8  -.002   -3.7    .08     McDaniels 31   11.0   .083    0.0    .29
Gordon    34   23.7   .245    9.8   1.82      Gobert   28   15.2   .153    1.1   1.18
Ke. C-P   34   10.3   .100    0.1    .11      Ni. A-W  27    8.1   .032   -2.0   -.04
Braun     20   11.5   .093   -0.5    .15      Conley   26   16.6   .169    4.4   1.32
Holiday   17    7.2   .048   -2.7   -.22      Reid     22   13.8   .067   -0.5    .90
Jackson   10    9.4  -.043   -4.1    .23      Anderson 14   14.2   .121    2.9    .45
Watson     5   -1.5  -.190  -11.4    .05      Morris    6   10.2   .010   -4.1    .41
Strawther  3    4.3  -.078   -6.2   -.39    McLaughlin  3   -2.7  -.154  -13.0   -.71
Tyson      2   -6.8  -.316  -16.5   -.81      Garza     3   45.1   .596   21.7   3.31
Nnaji      2    9.9  -.028   -5.2   -.51      Minott    3   12.0   .116    1.2    .82
totals   237   14.1   .079   1.14    .85     . totals 237   15.8   .129   2.32   1.15

[Mike G]

Mavs 4 - 2 Thunder
avg score 106 - 106
Pyth wins and eWins 3.0 - 3.0

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.37  Shai G-A       OKC   41  .588   30.6   7.2   6.1   1.1   2.0  2.1   2.65
1.05  Luka Dončić    Dal   42  .556   23.1   9.7   7.3   1.6   4.2   .4   2.02
.61  Jalen Williams  OKC   38  .502   15.2   6.3   5.1   1.6   1.3   .6   1.28
.51  P.J. Washington Dal   36  .609   17.9   9.0   2.0    .7   1.6   .3   1.15
.49  Daniel Gafford  Dal   23  .595   18.2  12.4   2.0    .3   1.9  3.2   1.69

.47   Chet Holmgren  OKC   36  .583   16.0   6.4   1.9   1.0   1.9  2.4   1.04
.32   Kyrie Irving   Dal   40  .525   14.0   2.2   5.4    .9   2.6   .6    .63
.24   Dereck Lively  Dal   23  .500   10.4  11.8   2.1    .5   2.3  1.7    .84
.23   Derrick Jones  Dal   32  .579   14.0   3.9   1.7    .8   1.4  1.6    .59
.18  Jaylin Williams OKC   14  .556   10.9   9.5   3.9    .8    .4   .4   1.02

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.16   Josh Giddey    OKC   13  .487   15.6   7.5   3.5    .5   2.1   .9   1.04
.11   Josh Green     Dal   18  .591   11.6   3.8   3.2   1.2   1.0   .0    .49
.11   Luguentz Dort  OKC   35  .467    9.1   5.2   1.8   1.8   1.6   .4    .24
.10   Isaiah Joe     OKC   20  .614   11.7   4.4   2.1    .9   1.0   .0    .41
.09   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   16  .557   12.0   6.3    .9   1.0   1.9   .7    .46

.05   Tim Hardaway   Dal   16  .526   10.9   3.9   1.0    .7    .7   .3    .24
.01 Kenrich Williams OKC    3  .333    2.5   7.3   5.1    .0    .0   .0    .25
.00   Dante Exum     Dal    5  .417    7.7   3.4   2.1    .0    .0   .0    .02
-.01  Gordon Hayward OKC    3  .000     .0   7.8   1.8    .0    .0   .0   -.30
-.01  Jaden Hardy    Dal    5  .241    3.9   4.0   4.6    .0   2.0   .0   -.21
-.07  Cason Wallace  OKC   21  .484    5.8   1.8   1.2   1.0    .9   .5   -.27

shooting : Dal .550 - .541 OKC
rebounds: Dal 45.2 - 40.5 OKC
turnovers: OKC 10.0 - 14.3 Dal

Code: Select all

. Dal    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480     . OKC      mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Dončić   42   19.0   .127    7.0   2.02      Shai G-A  41   28.1   .247   11.8   2.65
Irving   40   10.5   .050   -0.2    .63    Je Williams 38   16.3   .114    3.0   1.28
Wash'ton 36   15.4   .136    4.1   1.15      Holmgren  36   16.0   .113    1.4   1.04
Jones    32   13.0   .102    2.1    .59      Dort      35    7.8   .034   -2.9    .24
Gafford  23   21.0   .178    4.4   1.69      Wallace   21    6.0   .018   -4.0   -.27
Lively   23   14.0   .102   -0.8    .84      Joe       20   12.2   .112    1.0    .41
Green    18   12.7   .128    3.3    .49      Wiggins   16   12.8   .067   -0.3    .46
Hardaway 16   11.0   .068   -1.1    .24    Ji Williams 14   16.8   .189    4.9   1.02
Hardy     5   -3.8  -.201  -13.8   -.21      Giddey    13   14.2  -.016    0.9   1.04
Exum      5    7.2   .043   -3.0    .02     K Williams  3   10.2   .082    0.3    .25
                                             Hayward    3    -.2  -.117   -9.5   -.30
.totals 238   14.2   .102   2.25   1.00      . totals 239   15.2   .107   2.19   1.00

[Crow]

Thunder with the stronger and / or bigger role best 3. Mavs with the better / more involved next 4.

[Mike G]

Kyrie Irving worst of Mavs' 8 rotation players, according to both PER and WS.
BPM ranks him 5th, eWins 4th.

OKC had a Big 4 in minutes, then a next-5. Cason Wallace at #5 sank steadily:

Code: Select all

Gms  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
2    22   15.3   .188    4.1    .62
3    19   12.9   .147    2.0    .29
4    19   12.4   .154    2.7    .24
5    21    8.0   .075   -1.7   -.14
6    21    6.0   .018   -4.0   -.27

The stats that liked him at first also register the bigger declines.

Dallas steadily took over on the boards:

Code: Select all

gms   Dal   OKC    Gaff  Live   Holm  JayW
1    39 -   52 -   15.1   9.8    7.9  16.2
2    41.5   46.5   12.1   8.0    7.2  14.5
3    43.7   44.7   11.5   8.7    7.3  11.7
4    44.5   44.8   11.6   8.5    7.6  12.9
5    44.8   42.4   11.8  10.0    6.8  10.9
6    45.2   40.5   12.4  11.8    6.4   9.5

Cumulative per-game rates for the teams and standardized per-36 for the players.
The Bigs -- Gafford and Lively vs Holmgren and Jaylin Williams -- went from roughly-even to not-even close.

[Crow]

Nuggets bench fail generally.
"Develop" or spend more on vets?

[Mike G]

Wolves 4 - 3 Nuggets
avg score 102.7 - 97.6
Pyth wins 4.65 - 2.35 , eWins 4.08 - 2.92

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.72  Nikola Jokić   Den   40  .587   28.0  10.9   6.7   1.4   3.3   .9   2.95
1.32 Anthony Edwards Min   40  .601   27.6   5.0   5.1   1.4   2.6   .5   2.24
.88   Karl-A Towns   Min   35  .602   20.8  10.3   3.2    .9   2.1   .5   1.75
.66   Aaron Gordon   Den   35  .715   17.0   5.9   4.2   1.1   1.4   .9   1.30
.51   Mike Conley    Min   28  .574   13.0   5.4   7.4   1.3   1.4   .4   1.24

.45   Rudy Gobert    Min   29  .590   11.7  12.6   2.0    .9   1.9  1.4   1.05
.41   Jamal Murray   Den   38  .478   16.5   4.2   4.0   1.3   2.8   .1    .75
.35   Naz Reid       Min   22  .547   15.8   7.7   1.3    .9   1.4  1.6   1.08
.26  Jaden McDaniels Min   32  .594   12.5   4.9   1.5   1.3   1.2  1.6    .56
.12   Kyle Anderson  Min   13  .432    7.3   6.7   6.6   2.3   2.4   .8    .65

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09  Christian Braun Den   20  .560    9.0   5.5   1.6    .5    .3  1.0    .31
.06   Monte Morris   Min    5  .375   11.1   2.9   4.5   1.8    .0   .0    .73
.05  Kentavious C-P  Den   34  .579    7.6   4.0   2.8   1.1    .6   .6    .09
.03  Michael Porter  Den   35  .490    9.3   6.2   1.0    .7   2.0  1.2    .07
.02   Peyton Watson  Den    4  .056     .3  14.0   1.0    .0    .0  2.2    .30

.02  Reggie Jackson  Den    9  .464   12.4   5.4   2.4    .5   3.3   .5    .13
-.05  Justin Holiday Den   16  .593    7.9   5.0    .8    .6   1.0   .0   -.23
-.06  Nickeil A-W    Min   25  .490    8.9   2.4   2.6    .0   1.7  1.0   -.16

shooting : Min .564 - .545 Den
rebounds: Min 42.9 - 40.0 Den
turnovers: Min 11.7 - 12.6 Den

Code: Select all

. Den    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jokić    40   28.5   .220   11.7   2.95      Edwards  40   22.5   .184    7.2   2.24
Murray   38   10.7  -.037   -2.3    .75      Towns    35   19.0   .174    3.9   1.75
Porter   35    7.1  -.007   -4.0    .07     McDaniels 32   14.1   .143    2.9    .56
Gordon   35   20.3   .208    7.1   1.30      Gobert   29   14.6   .150    0.5   1.05
K C-P    34    9.8   .095    0.2    .09      Conley   28   15.6   .162    4.1   1.24
Braun    20   11.7   .104    0.3    .31      N A-W    25    6.0   .004   -3.6   -.16
Holiday  16    6.8   .051   -2.8   -.23      Reid     22   15.4   .101    1.3   1.08
Jackson   9    6.6  -.093   -6.4    .13      Anderson 13   14.3   .129    2.9    .65
Watson    4   -1.5  -.187  -11.4    .30      Morris    5   10.2   .010   -4.1    .73
Strawther 2    4.3  -.077   -6.2   -.13    McLaughlin  3   -2.7  -.152  -13.0   -.56
Tyson     2   -6.8  -.317  -16.5   -.67      Garza     2   44.9   .598   21.7   4.13
Nnaji     2    9.9  -.029   -5.2   -.28      Minott    2   12.0   .116    1.2   1.24
Pickett   2   17.0   .172    7.2    .67                     
. totals 239  13.7   .076    1.2    .84     . totals 237   15.6   .134    2.5   1.16