2024 Finals: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks

[Mike G]

Celts 2 - 0 Mavs
avg score 106.0 - 93.5
Pyth wins 1.68 - .32 , eWins 1.34 - .66 :

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.38   Luka Dončić    Dal   41  .579   31.9   9.6   4.9   2.8   5.4   .0   2.24
.36   Jrue Holiday   Bos   38  .760   27.0   9.8   4.2    .9    .0   .5   2.25
.28   Jaylen Brown   Bos   40  .623   25.8   4.6   4.5   2.6   4.2  1.4   1.65
.21   Kr. Porziņģis  Bos   22  .696   31.6   7.6    .8    .0    .9  3.8   2.27
.18   Derrick White  Bos   37  .589   19.2   3.5   3.8   1.9   1.7  1.0   1.18

.17   Jayson Tatum   Bos   44  .405   11.9   8.4   7.8    .4   4.3   .4    .90
.16  Daniel Gafford  Dal   19  .700   25.8  12.0    .9   1.0    .0  1.0   2.09
.13   Al Horford     Bos   29  .625   11.0   9.0   3.5    .6    .0  1.3   1.04
.10  P.J. Washington Dal   39  .534   13.7   7.2    .9    .0    .5   .5    .65
.06   Jaden Hardy    Dal    7  .650   36.0   7.0   2.0    .0    .0   .0   2.34

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.03   Derrick Jones  Dal   31  .457    7.7   5.5   1.1   1.3    .6   .6    .26
.02   Dante Exum     Dal    8  1.50   16.7   5.7   3.4    .0   3.8   .0    .61
.01   Sam Hauser     Bos   14  .500   10.6   3.6   1.3    .0    .0   .0    .19
.01   Kyrie Irving   Dal   39  .368    9.1   2.4   3.4   1.0   2.4   .0    .06
-.01  Pa. Pritchard  Bos   14  .167    1.1   3.4   5.0   1.1   1.3   .0   -.15

-.02  Dereck Lively  Dal   19  .400    2.7  10.7    .8    .9   3.5   .0   -.20
-.03  Josh Green     Dal   17  .368    4.2   3.8    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.36
-.05  Maxi Kleber    Dal   18  .200     .6   1.9    .8    .0    .9   .9   -.70

shooting : Bos .579 - .511 Dal
rebounds: Bos 44.0 - 43.0 Dal
turnovers: Bos 12.5 - 13.0 Dal

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2024.html

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. Bos     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Tatum     44    8.8  -.005   -2.7    .90      Dončić   41   23.8   .059   12.6   2.24
Brown     40   19.7   .192    6.2   1.66      Irving   39    4.9  -.135   -5.9    .06
Holiday   38   26.3   .376   10.7   2.25    Washington 39   13.8   .109    1.4    .65
White     37   16.2   .187    4.8   1.18      Jones    31   11.1   .047    0.2    .26
Horford   29   15.4   .214    5.1   1.04      Gafford  19   30.9   .294   11.4   2.09
Porziņģis 22   28.3   .312   10.0   2.27      Lively   19    3.8  -.070   -8.5   -.20
Pritchard 14    -.7  -.044   -9.0   -.15      Kleber   18   -3.1  -.080   -8.9   -.70
Hauser    14    7.4   .107   -3.2    .19      Green    17    3.2  -.038   -6.6   -.36
                                              Exum      8    8.1   .027    0.3    .61
                                              Hardy     7   34.5   .372   18.1   2.34
. totals 238   16.8   .184   3.95   1.33     . totals 235   12.2   .028   0.82    .66
correl. w min:  .34    .20    .39    .45                     .17   -.12    .22    .24

[Crow]

Celtics knew they needed more options and leadership than Brown - Tatum and reinforced very well.

[Mike G]

Celtics 3 - 0 Mavs
avg score 106.0 - 95.3
Pyth wins 2.41 - .59 , eWins 1.96 - 1.04 :

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.49   Jaylen Brown   Bos   40  .619   27.7   5.7   5.6   1.8   3.7  1.2   1.94
.48   Luka Dončić    Dal   40  .539   28.5   8.7   5.0   2.2   4.8   .0   1.95
.38   Jrue Holiday   Bos   39  .691   19.1   7.9   4.4    .9    .0   .3   1.56
.33   Jayson Tatum   Bos   43  .461   17.1   7.7   6.8    .6   3.4   .3   1.23
.28   Derrick White  Bos   38  .613   18.3   4.0   3.8   1.3   1.4  1.3   1.15

.22  Daniel Gafford  Dal   18  .750   24.4  10.8   1.2    .7    .0  1.4   1.96
.21   Kr. Porziņģis  Bos   15  .696   30.6   7.9    .8    .0    .8  3.8   2.24
.16   Al Horford     Bos   32  .639   10.5   7.7   2.9   1.1    .9  1.2    .82
.14  P.J. Washington Dal   38  .537   13.3   7.7   1.1    .0   1.0   .3    .60
.12   Kyrie Irving   Dal   41  .460   15.8   2.5   2.7    .6   2.1   .0    .46

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Dereck Lively  Dal   22  .652    9.0  12.9    .9   1.5   2.0   .0    .66
.07   Sam Hauser     Bos   14  .679   17.5   4.8   1.7    .0    .0   .0    .82
.04   Jaden Hardy    Dal    6  .591   25.2   5.4   1.6    .0   1.8   .0   1.23
.04   Derrick Jones  Dal   26  .462    6.9   6.0   1.3   1.5    .5   .5    .27
.03   Dante Exum     Dal    6  1.25   19.9   5.2   3.0    .0   3.4   .0    .79

-.02   Josh Green    Dal   19  .435    4.2   4.3   1.0    .6    .0   .0   -.17
-.02  Pa. Pritchard  Bos   13  .115     .5   3.4   4.4    .8    .9   .0   -.27
-.03   Tim Hardaway  Dal    9  .000     .0   3.7    .0   1.2    .0   .0   -.53
-.06   Maxi Kleber   Dal   14  .143     .3   2.3    .7    .0    .8   .7   -.72

shooting : Bos .579 - .512 Dal
rebounds: Dal 43.0 - 41.3 Bos
turnovers: Bos 11.3 - 11.7 Dal

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. Bos     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Tatum     43   12.3   .034   -0.9   1.23      Irving   41    9.8  -.056   -2.3    .46
Brown     40   21.4   .199    6.4   1.94      Dončić   40   21.4   .030    9.1   1.95
Holiday   39   20.6   .295    6.6   1.56    Washington 38   12.0   .085    1.1    .60
White     38   15.8   .185    4.2   1.15      Jones    26   11.1   .064    1.8    .27
Horford   32   13.2   .161    4.2    .82      Lively   22   14.2   .100    0.3    .66
Porziņģis 15   28.3   .305   10.0   2.24      Green    19    6.3   .021   -3.5   -.17
Hauser    14   15.1   .222    3.9    .82      Gafford  18   28.4   .290   10.3   1.96
Pritchard 13   -3.9  -.113  -13.4   -.27      Kleber   14   -4.0  -.105  -10.3   -.72
Tillman    4   16.9   .228    8.5   1.62      Hardaway  9   -6.7  -.219  -12.5   -.53
                                              Exum      6   11.1   .068    1.0    .79
                                              Hardy     6   21.7   .128    7.4   1.23
. totals 238   16.4   .173   3.59   1.30    . totals  239   12.5   .038   1.04    .70
min corr. 1-8   .24    .13    .28    .35     min corr  1-9   .46    .20    .51    .49

Seeing some major divergence among the stats, here they are converted to some kind of "wins" for easier comparison:

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Celtics   min   perW   WS   bpmW   eW       Mavs    min   perW   WS   bpmW   eW
Tatum     129   .19   .09   .18   .33      Irving   124   .11  -.14   .12   .12
Brown     121   .43   .49   .45   .48      Dončić   119   .42   .07   .55   .48
Holiday   117   .39   .70   .44   .38    Washington 115   .16   .20   .23   .14
White     115   .26   .43   .35   .27      Jones     77   .09   .10   .17   .04
Horford    95   .16   .31   .29   .16      Lively    67   .13   .13   .12   .09
Porziņģis  44   .22   .27   .21   .20      Green     56   .01   .02   .03  -.02
Hauser     41   .09   .18   .12   .07      Gafford   53   .27   .31   .26   .21
Pritchard  39  -.08  -.09  -.10  -.02      Kleber    43  -.09  -.09  -.07  -.06
Tillman    12   .03   .06   .05   .04      Hardaway  27  -.08  -.12  -.06  -.03
Kornet      3   .03   .05   .03   .02      Exum      18   .02   .02   .04   .03
Mykhailiuk  3   .01   .02   .01   .01      Hardy     17   .06   .04   .07   .04
Brissett    2   .00   .00   .00   .00      Powell     5  -.01   .00  -.01  -.01
totals    721  1.73  2.51  2.04  1.96      totals   721  1.10   .55  1.45  1.04

[Mike G]

Any guesses who will take Finals MVP?
Any of the top 4 Celtics could, if it ends tonight. Sometimes the clinching game outweighs the rest.

[Mike G]

What a difference a game makes.
Celtics 3 - 1 Mavs
avg score : Dal 102.0 - 100.5 Bos
Pyth wins 2.20 - 1.80, eWins 2.10 - 1.90 :

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.81   Luka Dončić    Dal   38  .527   30.4   9.3   5.2   2.4   4.0   .0   2.59
.43   Jaylen Brown   Bos   37  .568   22.2   4.2   4.6   1.5   3.5  1.0   1.40
.42   Jayson Tatum   Bos   39  .479   18.7   6.5   5.7    .7   3.6   .7   1.30
.31   Jrue Holiday   Bos   37  .648   15.4   6.0   3.7    .7   1.4   .5   1.03
.30   Kyrie Irving   Dal   39  .486   19.2   3.4   3.5    .5   2.0   .0    .95

.30  Daniel Gafford  Dal   16  .739   22.8  13.5   1.1    .6    .6  1.8   2.31
.26   Dereck Lively  Dal   23  .703   11.4  17.4    .7   1.6   1.6   .0   1.40
.21   Derrick White  Bos   37  .573   13.5   3.6   2.9   1.0   1.1  1.0    .69
.20   Kr. Porziņģis  Bos   11  .696   26.5   7.1    .8    .0    .9  4.0   2.15
.18  P.J. Washington Dal   32  .556   13.9   8.6   1.1    .0   1.5   .3    .67

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Al Horford     Bos   30  .684    8.7   6.1   3.4   1.2   1.0   .9    .59
.13   Sam Hauser     Bos   15  .786   19.5   5.1   1.1    .0    .0   .0   1.06
.12   Jaden Hardy    Dal    8  .563   22.5   8.3   5.3    .0   1.2   .0   1.88
.07   Dante Exum     Dal    8  .833   20.8   6.5   2.0   1.1   3.4   .0   1.08
.07   Derrick Jones  Dal   23  .489    7.8   6.7   1.1   1.2    .4   .8    .37

.05   Tim Hardaway   Dal   10  .536   11.7   6.4    .8    .9    .0   .0    .66
.04  Xavier Tillman  Bos    5  .857   13.4   8.1   1.8    .0   2.0  3.6    .90
.02   Josh Green     Dal   19  .433    4.9   6.8   1.3    .9    .0   .0    .11
-.02  Pa. Pritchard  Bos   15  .259    5.7   3.6   4.5    .6   1.9   .0   -.12
-.09  Maxi Kleber    Dal   17  .350    2.6   2.5   1.0    .5    .6   .5   -.62

shooting : Bos .563 - .542 Dal
rebounds: Dal 45.3 - 38.8 Bos
turnovers: Dal 11.0 - 12.0 Bos

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. Bos     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Tatum     39   13.2   .011   -0.2   1.30      Irving   39   13.2   .036   -0.4    .95
Brown     37   16.8   .094    3.0   1.40      Dončić   38   22.8   .101    8.3   2.59
White     37   13.0   .106    1.9    .69    Washington 32   11.4   .108   -0.1    .67
Holiday   37   17.0   .168    3.6   1.03      Jones    23   11.1   .116    1.5    .37
Horford   30   13.1   .135    4.0    .59      Lively   23   19.4   .211    3.5   1.40
Pritchard 15   -1.4  -.174  -11.4   -.12      Green    19    8.5   .094   -0.7    .11
Hauser    15   19.6   .238    7.7   1.06      Kleber   17    1.5   .010   -4.2   -.62
Porziņģis 11   28.3   .274   10.0   2.15      Gafford  16   29.1   .348    9.8   2.31
Tillman    5   18.0   .230    6.9    .90      Hardaway 10   11.8   .106    3.2    .66
Brissett   4   18.9   .234    5.6    .78      Exum      8   15.8   .157    4.6   1.08
Kornet     3   12.9   .181    2.6    .29      Hardy     8   20.7   .217    7.6   1.88
. totals 233   14.2   .098   1.94    .95     . totals 230   14.5   .111   2.26   1.05
corr w min 1-7  .40    .19    .29    .60    corr w min 1-10  .26   -.27    .15    .43

Scaling all 4 stat totals to 4.00 wins, here are weighted averages thru 4 games:

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wins  . Bos    min    pW    WS    bW    eW      wins  . Dal    min    pW    WS    bW    eW
.25   Tatum    156   .28   .03   .22   .42      .23   Irving   154   .28   .11   .21   .30
.37   Brown    149   .40   .28   .35   .43      .60   Dončić   151   .62   .30   .58   .81
.27   White    146   .26   .31   .30   .21      .20 Washington 129   .18   .28   .19   .18
.38   Holiday  146   .40   .49   .37   .31      .15   Jones     93   .12   .21   .18   .07
.25   Horford  118   .21   .32   .31   .14      .28   Lively    90   .30   .38   .22   .26

-.10  Pritchard 61  -.11  -.21  -.11  -.02      .07   Green     74   .05   .14   .09   .02
.21   Hauser    61   .20   .29   .22   .13     -.03   Kleber    66  -.07   .01   .02  -.09
.21   Porziņģis 44   .24   .24   .19   .20      .32   Gafford   63   .36   .44   .27   .30
.06   Tillman   19   .06   .09   .07   .04      .07   Hardaway  39   .06   .08   .09   .05
.05   Brissett  17   .05   .08   .05   .03      .08   Exum      32   .08   .10   .09   .07

wins  . Bos    min    pW    WS    bW    eW      wins  . Dal    min    pW    WS    bW    eW
.03   Kornet    13   .02   .05   .03   .01      .12   Hardy     30   .11   .13   .11   .12
-.02 Mykhailiuk 13  -.02  -.06  -.02   .00      .00   Powell    13  -.01   .01   .01  -.01
-.01  Springer   8  -.01  -.01  -.01  -.01     -.02   Morris    12  -.03  -.05  -.03   .00
-.02  Walsh      5  -.02  -.03  -.02  -.01      .00   Lawson     8   .00   .00   .00  -.02
.02   Queta      5   .02   .03   .02   .01     -.01   Prosper    5  -.01  -.03   .00   .01

1.93   totals  960  1.97  1.88  1.96  1.90     2.07   . totals 960  2.03  2.12  2.04  2.10

Team leaders:
PER -- Luka .62 - .40 Brown/Jrue
WS -- Jrue .49 - .44 Gafford
BPM -- Luka .58 - .37 Jrue (.35 Brown)
eWins - Luka .81 - .43 Brown (.42 Tatum)

[Mike G]

Mavs centers Gafford and Lively never play together, and so we can just add their totals to see what one (rotating) C gets.
Game by game totals for the two; and the last 4 columns are their combined summary stats through x games.

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Gm   Min   TSA   TS%   Pt   Rb  As  St  Bk  TO  >  PER   WS/48  BPM   e480
1   32.8   5.8  .868   10    8   2   2   0   2    20.1   .185   3.2   1.28
2   41.7  13.8  .545   15   16   0   0   1   2    18.6   .128   2.3   1.05
3   46.3   9.4  .900   17   16   2   2   1   0    19.2   .167   3.8   1.12
4   32.2  11.4  .789   18   16   0   1   1   1    22.4   .253   5.4   1.68

In game 4, neither guy played after the 38 minute mark. They were on pace to total 41 minutes.
WinShares thinks they are Dallas' 2 best players; the rest say "he" is 2nd to Luka.

[Mike G]

Mavs have flipped the rebounding advantage much as they did in the 2nd round vs Thunder.
Averages thru X games:

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G     Dal   OKC        Dal   Bos
1    39 -   52 -      43 -   47 -
2    41.5   46.5      43.0   44.0
3    43.7   44.7      43.0   41.3
4    44.5   44.8      45.3   38.8
5    44.8   42.4         
6    45.2   40.5    

In game 4, Jason Tatum led his team in rebounds with 5.
When's the last time 5 was the most for a team in a playoff game? in a Finals game?

[Crow]

Mavs rebounding improvement over game 1 comes mainly from lower Celtics efg% in 2 of next 3 games. Only in game 4 did they have a large OReb lead.

[Mike G]

In the 2015 Finals, LeBron James arguably generated about as many "wins" as any 2 of his opponents; yet Iguodala (GSW) got Finals mvp.
https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic. ... 1&start=30
According to that thread, 4 of 11 voters went for LeBron, on the losing Cavs.

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xyz     2015    Min    PER   e484   eWins   WS   WS/48   BPM  vorp
2.22   LeBron   275   26.3   2.84   1.57   .90   .156   13.7  1.08
1.61   Curry    255   20.2   2.09   1.07   .83   .156    6.5   .54
1.42   Iguodala 223   18.0   1.53    .69   .92   .198    5.8   .43
1.37   Green    222   16.3   1.56    .70   .81   .176    6.3   .46

and this year:

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wins   thru 4 G      min   perW   WS   bpmW   eW
.58   Luka Dončić    151   .62   .30   .58   .81
.39   Jrue Holiday   146   .40   .49   .37   .31
.37   Jaylen Brown   149   .40   .28   .35   .43
.34   Daniel Gafford  63   .36   .44   .27   .30
.29   Dereck Lively   90   .30   .38   .22   .26
.27   Derrick White  146   .26   .31   .30   .21
.24   Jayson Tatum   156   .28   .03   .22   .42
.25   Al Horford     118   .21   .32   .31   .14
.23   Kyrie Irving   154   .28   .11   .21   .30

If Luka has another monster outing, and again it's just "not enough", it may be occasion to honor the legacy of Jerry West, who won the inaugural award with the losing team.

the 1969 Finals recreated (roughly):

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eWin   per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   e480
1.64  Jerry West      LAL   44   .553   31.7   2.9   5.5   2.4   2.57
1.16  John Havlicek   Bos   48   .517   20.7   6.3   2.9   2.7   1.65
.69  Wilt Chamberlain LAL   47   .451    8.1  14.5   2.1   2.3   1.00
.66   Elgin Baylor    LAL   37   .434   16.0   7.6   3.4   3.5   1.24
.61   Bill Russell    Bos   48   .427    6.1  12.2   3.4   3.1    .88

.57   Sam Jones       Bos   30   .502   21.1   3.2   2.3   3.9   1.30
.42   Don Nelson      Bos   20   .472   19.2   7.8   1.7   6.0   1.43
.39  Larry Siegfried  Bos   26   .460   17.8   2.7   3.4   5.9   1.03
.33   Johnny Egan     LAL   35   .491   15.0   1.9   3.7   3.4    .65
.27   Mel Counts      LAL   21   .519   16.0   7.3   1.3   7.0    .87

eWin   per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   e480
.20   Em Bryant       Bos   33   .450   10.7   4.1   2.5   4.2    .42
.13   Keith Erickson  LAL   27   .413   10.0   5.9   2.0   4.3    .32
.10   Bailey Howell   Bos   28   .359   10.8   5.2    .6   6.3    .26
.01   Tom Sanders     Bos    6   .500   11.3   4.0    .8  11.5    .10
-.06  Bill Hewitt     LAL   13   .327    4.6   6.3    .7   4.6   -.32
-.11  Tom Hawkins     LAL   16   .310    4.2   5.4    .8   6.2   -.47

Lakers lost 4-3 despite outshooting the Celtics by .012 TS% and winning the boards by 5.3 Reb/G.
They also outscored Boston, but by only 0.4 ppg. So it was Defense -- the uncounted turnover differential -- that got the Celtics close enough to win a game 7.
(I had to add 1.0 TO to all Lakers' rates to make the eWins add up right. )

[Crow]

Mavs +29 with 5 most used lineups, Celtics -21. But Mavs 5 most used played less than half of time. Still 6 winning +6 net margin but obviously Celtics better in 3, better on dink game by +15.


Mavs should increase top lineup concentration.

Celtics starters have lost significantly in last 3 games after winning their time by 1 point in game 1. They aren't going to change in game 5 but if it continues?


3 bad big minute pairs for Mavs are Doncic - Jones, Irving - Gafford and Wasington - Lively. None were bad in regular season but the latter 2 were below team average performance.

Irving - Donic has crushed Celtics in 3/4ths of game. They get crushed in the other 1/4tĥ. Take pair to 40+ minutes? Get to 40+ by slowing pace and strategic fouling?


Celtics 10 most used trios ALL negative, with 8 -9/100p and worse. 10 most used pairs also all negative. 5 most used quads bad to very bad. They have been totally dependent on dink game. Is the latter redeeming of terrible top lineup management? Yes ultimately, but not straight forward impressive.

Celtics bench winning the series? So far, by far over starters.

Implications for remaining games and probably the future, if they consider the information to be meaningful.

Seen this analysis anywhere else? Link?

[Crow]

Can quibble some but imo Celtics rotation is essentially
PGs, fairly large Wings and Centers. Usually 2 PGs, 2 WIngs, 1 Center but sometimes 1 PG, 2 Centers (or PF/Cs or simply "bigs"). But always 2 bigger wings. 3 basic skillsets. Tradition sized SGs mostly foregone for smaller or bigger.


Thunder could be argued as having 2 big wings (JDub and Giddey) or 2 PGS (SGA and Giddey) but not often both on court. 2 Centers on court together also rare and not working. Playing Dort, who isn't a PG or actually a big wing, is a major difference. White and Holiday are PGs who play defense. C Wallace isn't quite a PG yet.

Don't have to be an exact copy of Celtics but the number of multi-skill players, veterans, is something I would emulate. Players really missing a 3 ball, defense, passing or rebounding can create problems for or at least limit the eliteness of main lineups.


I haven't estimated the exact share of credit that can be assigned to Celtics 3pt shooting and 3pt defense but the success is almost all those 2 things, defensive rebounding and low fouling rate. Thunder not particularly strong at any of those 4 things in playoffs (or less or well less). Strong on 5 other factors but somehow not enough. Especially after the easy 1st round.


Thunder were close to Celtics on net rating in regular season but on details in playoffs they were pretty different.

I am not sure if the better general strategy against Celtics in future is to focus on 3pt game (both sides of court), offensive rebounding and getting to line or trying to win everything else but it will probably take a pretty massive success at one of these 2 approaches. But of course have to get there first, overcoming other teams and their strengths. Thunder would have to make many extreme changes to the current design to try the first approach. Largely betting that the second is the best for them and potentially enough. But blurring the two into one might be wise.

[Mike G]

Celtics 4 - 1 Mavs
avg score 101.6 - 99.2
Pyth wins 2.89 - 2.11 , eWins 2.70 - 2.30 :

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.89   Luka Dončić    Dal   39  .523   28.8   9.3   4.8   2.5   4.4   .0   2.18
.64   Jayson Tatum   Bos   40  .498   20.6   6.7   6.6    .9   3.2   .5   1.52
.54   Jaylen Brown   Bos   39  .525   20.9   4.8   4.8   1.5   2.9   .8   1.34
.42   Jrue Holiday   Bos   38  .621   16.2   6.9   3.7    .6   1.5   .6   1.08
.35   Kyrie Irving   Dal   39  .478   17.4   3.2   4.2    .6   1.7   .0    .87

.32  Daniel Gafford  Dal   15  .714   24.9  12.4    .9    .5    .5  1.5   2.07
.31   Derrick White  Bos   37  .585   14.8   4.5   2.6   1.1   1.3  1.0    .82
.25   Al Horford     Bos   30  .673   10.3   7.2   3.2   1.4    .8   .7    .80
.23   Dereck Lively  Dal   23  .683   10.7  14.5    .6   1.3   1.6   .3    .99
.22   Sam Hauser     Bos   16  .732   22.6   6.0   1.4    .4    .0   .0   1.37

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   Kr. Porziņģis  Bos   12  .661   25.0   6.2    .6    .0    .7  2.9   1.63
.16  P.J. Washington Dal   33  .519   11.9   7.8   1.4    .0   2.1   .7    .48
.12   Jaden Hardy    Dal    7  .553   24.4   7.2   4.8    .0   1.1   .0   1.75
.10   Dante Exum     Dal    8  .864   24.6   4.8   1.6    .9   2.6   .0   1.23
.09   Derrick Jones  Dal   23  .508    9.3   5.0    .9   1.0    .3   .9    .36

.08   Josh Green     Dal   19  .587    9.6   5.8   1.0    .8    .0   .0    .37
.05  Xavier Tillman  Bos    4  .857   16.7   8.8   1.9    .0   2.1  3.7   1.22
.03  Oshae Brissett  Bos    4  .700   16.0   5.5    .0    .0    .0  1.9    .84
.03   Tim Hardaway   Dal   10  .500    9.8   5.0    .7    .8    .0   .0    .30
.01 Payton Pritchard Bos   12  .304    6.5   3.8   4.6    .5   1.9   .0    .10
-.06  Maxi Kleber    Dal   16  .346    2.6   3.5   1.2    .5    .5   .4   -.36

shooting : Bos .558 - .539 Dal
rebounds: Dal 43.2 - 41.2 Bos
turnovers: 11.4 - 11.4

Code: Select all

. Bos     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Tatum     40   16.2   .085    2.9   1.52      Irving   39   13.1   .035    0.6    .87
Brown     39   15.6   .096    2.1   1.34      Dončić   39   21.4   .055    7.2   2.18
Holiday   38   16.2   .164    3.1   1.08    Washington 33    8.6   .043   -1.4    .48
White     37   13.8   .130    2.6    .82      Jones    23   11.7   .090    1.3    .36
Horford   30   13.9   .164    4.5    .80      Lively   23   15.9   .166    0.8    .99
Hauser    16   20.0   .257    7.9   1.37      Green    19   11.7   .130    2.7    .37
Pritchard 12     .5  -.124   -9.5    .10      Kleber   16    2.3   .010   -4.3   -.36
Porziņģis 12   22.2   .223    5.3   1.63      Gafford  15   28.4   .312    8.7   2.07
Tillman    4   18.0   .241    6.9   1.22      Hardaway 10    7.7   .061   -0.9    .30
Brissett   4   17.8   .230    5.2    .84      Exum      8   16.0   .167    5.2   1.23
Kornet     3   14.4   .212    2.5    .41      Hardy     7   21.0   .191    7.4   1.75
Mykhailiuk 3   - .8  -.187  -11.0   -.02      Powell    3    4.1   .043   -1.9   -.04
Springer   2   -1.9  -.046  -11.4   -.33      Morris    2   -4.2  -.217  -12.9    .12
Walsh      1  -13.8  -.323  -21.4   -.46      Lawson    2    4.2   .016   -4.0   -.96
Queta      1   24.1   .280    8.2   1.32      Prosper   2   -1.2  -.136   -6.4    .53
. totals 240   14.8   .125   2.51   1.08     . totals 240   13.7   .086   1.87    .92

Generic 'wins' are the avg of 4, once scaled to 5.00 totals:

Code: Select all

wins    Bos    min    pW    WS    bW    eW      wins   Dal     min    pW    WS    bW    eW
.48   Tatum    201   .51   .34   .46   .64      .29   Irving   195   .35   .14   .32   .35
.44   Brown    193   .47   .36   .39   .54      .63   Dončić   195   .75   .21   .68   .89
.49   Holiday  189   .48   .61   .44   .42      .15 Washington 164   .12   .14   .18   .16
.39   White    184   .36   .47   .41   .31      .17   Jones    116   .17   .21   .21   .09
.36   Horford  150   .30   .49   .41   .25      .27   Lively   114   .28   .37   .19   .23
.29   Hauser    78   .27   .40   .29   .22      .17   Green     97   .14   .25   .22   .08
-.07 Pritchard  62  -.08  -.15  -.07   .01     -.02   Kleber    80  -.07   .01   .02  -.06
.22  Porziņģis  60   .24   .26   .18   .20      .37   Gafford   74   .41   .46   .29   .32
.07   Tillman   19   .06   .09   .06   .05      .04   Hardaway  48   .02   .06   .06   .03
.05   Brissett  18   .05   .08   .05   .03      .12   Exum      41   .10   .14   .12   .10
.03   Kornet    15   .03   .06   .03   .01      .12   Hardy     33   .12   .12   .12   .12
-.02 Mykhailiuk 14  -.02  -.05  -.02   .00      .00   Powell    15  -.01   .01   .01   .00
-.01  Springer   8  -.01  -.01  -.01  -.01     -.03   Morris    12  -.03  -.05  -.03   .00
-.02  Walsh      5  -.02  -.03  -.02   .00      .00   Lawson    11   .00   .00   .00  -.02
.02   Queta      5   .02   .03   .02   .01     -.01   Prosper    8  -.01  -.02   .00   .01

Ironically, none of the 4 would give mvp to Brown, among the Celtics.

[Crow]

"3 bad big minute pairs for Mavs are Doncic - Jones, Irving - Gafford and Washington - Lively."

Last night they went -14pts/100p, -31 and -41 respectively. Plenty of other big minute pairs lost. There was not much notable rotation change to my first look. I would have tried some major changes.

Doncic - Irving almost went to 40 minutes (39) as suggested but it went from biggest positive previously to -11pts / 100p.

They were thoroughly beat. The design and game plan were not near enough.

To beat the Celtics next season, look at what didn't work this playoffs, maybe what did in regular season and somewhat what did in past playoffs or might.

[Mike G]

Game by game progression of cumulative stats; skimmed from previous posts..

Code: Select all

Tatum                            Brown                         Holiday         
.PER   WS/48   BPM   e480       PER   WS/48   BPM   e480       PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
_8.5  -.007   -3.3    .66      24.9   .311   12.1   2.08      18.3   .314    5.9   1.44
_8.8  -.005   -2.7    .90      19.7   .192    6.2   1.66      26.3   .376   10.7   2.25
12.3   .034   -0.9   1.23      21.4   .199    6.4   1.94      20.6   .295    6.6   1.56
13.2   .011   -0.2   1.30      16.8   .094    3.0   1.40      17.0   .168    3.6   1.03
16.2   .085    2.9   1.52      15.6   .096    2.1   1.34      16.2   .164    3.1   1.08

The stats diverge wildly; but in each one, Tatum improves steadily while the others decline from hot starts.

[Mike G]

Opening b-r.com I notice Derrick White led all players in Win Shares in the postseason.
It is very close between Luka and him. I wonder if the "block" on PJ Washington gave him the lead.

Down 5 in the final minute, PJ is going for a dunk, hotly pursued by both White and Brown. He misses it badly, lands awkwardly and goes careening out of bounds. Replay shows Brown giving him a sustained push in the back, a flagrant foul as it's not a play on the ball at all.

Two FT and the ball out would be a lot better than a fake block for D White. A ref right there on the baseline should have seen what I saw and probably more. They can reverse a foul call but not a non-call where play continues.

That was game 2. Next game, they call 2 fouls on Luka trying to defend Brown, who instigated contact both times. He could have gotten both fouls, but refs decided Luka was a bum on defense. or something.

I think the refs ruined these Finals. Celtics should be pissed, too.