APBRmetrics

i'll transcribe Hollinger's projections into here sometime before the season starts

https://theathletic.com/2880800/2021/10 ... e-ceiling/

For whatever reason, errors (defined by liminal) have gotten much worse in the last 2 days. MAE: 2-08 2-06 shad 4.52 3.96 bbst 4.63 4.00 avg. 4.66 4.20 TeRa 4.82 4.19 dtka 4.83 4.39 EExp 4.86 4.20 vegas 4.90 4.45 trzu 4.90 4.33 Crow 4.94 4.27 538R 5.14 4.73 cali 5.21 4.84 KPel 5.35 5.04 lisp 5.37 4...

Measuring stick is now 6 part, including last season actuals (from BRef)? 6 part is fine by me. Using last season actuals may have its place but was surprised by it returning. Eventually new B-Ref projections will replace this old data, I assume. the bballref components are not last season actuals ...

Thank you. 538 Raptor and Elo in lead, partly because of 538 data involvement in the measuring stick probably. What did you use from BRef? This page https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html is from last season still. It appears you used this. It should be replaced for now. Will b...

here is v1 of the sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

for the projection column I am just ensembling 538 RAPTOR and bbref. taking suggestions on how to make that number "better"

am late to do the spreadsheet. working on it now

i'll try to create a spreadsheet with everyone's entries today

vzografos wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:38 am the markets were predicting correctly close to 70% of the games.

you talk a lot about your probability theory and math knowledge but think this is an appropriate way of measuring the market? lol

I used a random number generator: ATL 32.1 BKN 40.4 BOS 40.8 CHA 20.9 CHI 27.1 CLE 23.3 DAL 44.8 DEN 42.2 DET 20.9 GSW 37.6 HOU 40.0 IND 39.4 LAC 46.4 LAL 46.8 MEM 37.3 MIA 43.1 MIL 47.8 MIN 34.7 NOP 38.1 NYK 21.0 OKC 27.3 ORL 31.2 PHI 42.7 PHX 34.9 POR 38.4 SAC 31.5 SAS 34.2 TOR 40.7 UTA 42.4 WAS 3...

I used Kevin Pelton's minutes. I saw those too. Not sure how accurate they are but if you want some additional projections I am going to calculate all the (per-season average) boxscore stats for 2020-21. I expect to have them in the next couple of days. Dont know if they will be any good but I woul...

if you are making predictions at the game level, you don't have enough training samples if you are going to use like 200 features. What exactly do you mean "at the game level"? I didnt understand that team A is playing team B. you want to use a "full dimensional space" but I am ...

I used Kevin Pelton's minutes. I saw those too. Not sure how accurate they are but if you want some additional projections I am going to calculate all the (per-season average) boxscore stats for 2020-21. I expect to have them in the next couple of days. Dont know if they will be any good but I woul...

if you are making predictions at the game level, you don't have enough training samples if you are going to use like 200 features. Better to carefully craft features that actually make sense IMO. If you are predicting at the possession level, yes, you can probably get away with a lot more features. ...

we doing this again?