APBRmetrics

HoopNerd, I've scrolled through your website and stats multiple times, but I couldn't find any data on how accurate they were (in terms of correlation to current and future team success), so I ignored them. If your numbers have excellent in-season accuracy, and can predict future performance as well...

BPM (RAPM scale but with box-score data only) ranked Anthony Davis as roughly the 18th best player last year (I believe). So the most reliable box-score metric liked him a lot better than RPM, but still didn't think he was "amazing". Davis's rookie rating (which RPM uses as a prior for nex...

I think calling him a "Horrible Defender" is a bit of a stretch, though it may be fair to say he's fallen off from the fairly lofty standards he set for himself. His 2014 Defensive RAPM was significantly below average, and as you alluded to, Vantage numbers midway through 2014 didn't think...

One thing that confuses me is how people treat Portland. How did they get five wins worse? 1.) They seemed to significantly cool down as the season wore on. 2.) I don't like Lamarcus Aldridge, and think any stat that says he's awesome is wrong (which is pretty much all the good stats). So, I subjec...

CLE 60 CHI 54 TOR 50 WAS 47 MIA 45 ATL 44 CHA 42 DET 37 BKN 36 IND 34 BOS 30 ORL 26 NYK 24 MIL 20 PHI 17 GSW 59 SAS 59 OKC 57 LAC 56 DAL 54 MEM 50 POR 48 HOU 48 PHO 45 MIN 39 NOP 36 DEN 33 SAC 28 UTA 27 LAL 25 Ratings calculated primarily with 13-14 RPM + Age-Curve, with 12-13 XRAPM and 2014 ASPM an...

xkonk, Yes, that's pretty much what I was looking for. I had such data for the last couple years, but wanted to see if someone had broken it down using decades instead of a couple seasons. Sorry to everyone else for my poor example (not trying to imply Kobe/Pau/Shaq on the same team), and generally ...

I was wondering if someone knew/calculated the "average" Minute-per-game distribution for an NBA roster (1-12). For example, 1.) Kobe - 38mpg 2.) Pau - 35 mpg 3.) Shaq - 32 mpg All the way down the roster. Thanks. Also, belated thanks to JE for putting up 2014 NPI RAPM! http://hoopdon.weeb...

I've seen this request articulated a fair amount, and so thought I'd formally inquire. Any chance of someone posting Single-Year (NPI) RAPM values, especially now that the season is over? It would be nice to have a "clean" source of "reliable" +/- numbers, preferably without any ...

Honestly, it seemed like the biggest factor in the Spurs' lopsided victory was Heat fatigue. The BIg-3 have racked up a gargantuan amount of minutes since 2011 (far more then the Spurs) and it showed. Wade (allegedly) wasn't hurt, he just had nothing left. LeBron seemed to frequently start games out...

So two years for APM, and raw +/- pretty much never?

I recall reading somewhere that 50 games or so was the minimum "acceptable" sample size for RAPM. Any truth to this?

http://hoopdon.weebly.com/

Just had a few question in relation to a post I'm trying to write.

What is the minimum number of games RAPM needs for solid results? What about APM? Raw +/-? Any links to articles/research involving these questions would be great.

http://hoopdon.weebly.com/

For those interested, I've posted the Top-30 Playoff-Performers through the first-round. Ratings are sorted by Per-Game production, with Per-Minute numbers on the left to compare. The "HDR" metric I'm using is just a RAPM-SPM, so the numbers should be on a RAPM scale. Opponent strength is ...

I've done some work with rebounding rates broken down by shot location, and your numbers look right. 30% for Field-Goals in general, 13% for Free-Throws.

http://hoopdon.weebly.com/

And when they laugh it off due to the kind of fluky results we know are inevitable due to the noisiness of single-year RAPM, then what? When they find out "RPM" uses previous season(s) performance, age, a "coaching factor", height, etc., they'll laugh it off anyway (I know as I'...

J.E., Including certain terms in a metric to improve performance, regardless of whether or not those terms make any sense, seems like a bad idea. For instance, when building my SPM-metric, I could get a high correlation to long-sample-RAPM (higher then ASPM), but the formula resulted in a negative c...