Search found 32 matches

by HoopDon
Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:39 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Statman's 2014-15 WAR at hoopsnerd.com
Replies: 16
Views: 12186

Re: Statman's 2014-15 WAR at hoopsnerd.com

HoopNerd, I've scrolled through your website and stats multiple times, but I couldn't find any data on how accurate they were (in terms of correlation to current and future team success), so I ignored them. If your numbers have excellent in-season accuracy, and can predict future performance as well...
by HoopDon
Mon Nov 10, 2014 3:23 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Shots at RPM
Replies: 73
Views: 50894

Re: Shots at RPM

BPM (RAPM scale but with box-score data only) ranked Anthony Davis as roughly the 18th best player last year (I believe). So the most reliable box-score metric liked him a lot better than RPM, but still didn't think he was "amazing". Davis's rookie rating (which RPM uses as a prior for next year's r...
by HoopDon
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:10 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Isn't Lebron a Horrible Defender?
Replies: 8
Views: 5419

Re: Isn't Lebron a Horrible Defender?

I think calling him a "Horrible Defender" is a bit of a stretch, though it may be fair to say he's fallen off from the fairly lofty standards he set for himself. His 2014 Defensive RAPM was significantly below average, and as you alluded to, Vantage numbers midway through 2014 didn't think much of h...
by HoopDon
Wed Oct 29, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286525

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

One thing that confuses me is how people treat Portland. How did they get five wins worse? 1.) They seemed to significantly cool down as the season wore on. 2.) I don't like Lamarcus Aldridge, and think any stat that says he's awesome is wrong (which is pretty much all the good stats). So, I subjec...
by HoopDon
Tue Oct 28, 2014 6:24 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Predictions 2014-2015
Replies: 265
Views: 286525

Re: Predictions 2014-2015

CLE 60 CHI 54 TOR 50 WAS 47 MIA 45 ATL 44 CHA 42 DET 37 BKN 36 IND 34 BOS 30 ORL 26 NYK 24 MIL 20 PHI 17 GSW 59 SAS 59 OKC 57 LAC 56 DAL 54 MEM 50 POR 48 HOU 48 PHO 45 MIN 39 NOP 36 DEN 33 SAC 28 UTA 27 LAL 25 Ratings calculated primarily with 13-14 RPM + Age-Curve, with 12-13 XRAPM and 2014 ASPM an...
by HoopDon
Thu Jul 10, 2014 3:16 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Average NBA Minute Distributions for Roster?
Replies: 8
Views: 4112

Re: Average NBA Minute Distributions for Roster?

xkonk, Yes, that's pretty much what I was looking for. I had such data for the last couple years, but wanted to see if someone had broken it down using decades instead of a couple seasons. Sorry to everyone else for my poor example (not trying to imply Kobe/Pau/Shaq on the same team), and generally ...
by HoopDon
Thu Jul 10, 2014 4:01 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Average NBA Minute Distributions for Roster?
Replies: 8
Views: 4112

Average NBA Minute Distributions for Roster?

I was wondering if someone knew/calculated the "average" Minute-per-game distribution for an NBA roster (1-12). For example, 1.) Kobe - 38mpg 2.) Pau - 35 mpg 3.) Shaq - 32 mpg All the way down the roster. Thanks. Also, belated thanks to JE for putting up 2014 NPI RAPM! http://hoopdon.weebly.com/
by HoopDon
Fri Jun 20, 2014 11:37 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Single Year RAPM?
Replies: 2
Views: 2063

Single Year RAPM?

I've seen this request articulated a fair amount, and so thought I'd formally inquire. Any chance of someone posting Single-Year (NPI) RAPM values, especially now that the season is over? It would be nice to have a "clean" source of "reliable" +/- numbers, preferably without any box-score, height, c...
by HoopDon
Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:10 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Replies: 36
Views: 10882

Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs

Honestly, it seemed like the biggest factor in the Spurs' lopsided victory was Heat fatigue. The BIg-3 have racked up a gargantuan amount of minutes since 2011 (far more then the Spurs) and it showed. Wade (allegedly) wasn't hurt, he just had nothing left. LeBron seemed to frequently start games out...
by HoopDon
Thu Jun 05, 2014 8:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: +/- Questions
Replies: 7
Views: 2297

Re: +/- Questions

So two years for APM, and raw +/- pretty much never?

I recall reading somewhere that 50 games or so was the minimum "acceptable" sample size for RAPM. Any truth to this?

http://hoopdon.weebly.com/
by HoopDon
Thu Jun 05, 2014 1:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: +/- Questions
Replies: 7
Views: 2297

+/- Questions

Just had a few question in relation to a post I'm trying to write.

What is the minimum number of games RAPM needs for solid results? What about APM? Raw +/-? Any links to articles/research involving these questions would be great.

http://hoopdon.weebly.com/
by HoopDon
Mon May 05, 2014 3:46 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.
Replies: 38
Views: 8020

Re: 2014 playoff summaries and misc.

For those interested, I've posted the Top-30 Playoff-Performers through the first-round. Ratings are sorted by Per-Game production, with Per-Minute numbers on the left to compare. The "HDR" metric I'm using is just a RAPM-SPM, so the numbers should be on a RAPM scale. Opponent strength is accounted ...
by HoopDon
Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:45 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Rebound Rate split by Field Goals and Free Throws
Replies: 2
Views: 1660

Re: Rebound Rate split by Field Goals and Free Throws

I've done some work with rebounding rates broken down by shot location, and your numbers look right. 30% for Field-Goals in general, 13% for Free-Throws.

http://hoopdon.weebly.com/
by HoopDon
Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:15 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Well, well, well...
Replies: 42
Views: 21119

Re: Well, well, well...

And when they laugh it off due to the kind of fluky results we know are inevitable due to the noisiness of single-year RAPM, then what? When they find out "RPM" uses previous season(s) performance, age, a "coaching factor", height, etc., they'll laugh it off anyway (I know as I've been pushing XRAP...
by HoopDon
Fri Apr 04, 2014 3:28 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Experimenting with Hollinger's PER and D.Oliver's O/DRtg
Replies: 9
Views: 5740

Re: Experimenting with Hollinger's PER and D.Oliver's O/DRtg

J.E., Including certain terms in a metric to improve performance, regardless of whether or not those terms make any sense, seems like a bad idea. For instance, when building my SPM-metric, I could get a high correlation to long-sample-RAPM (higher then ASPM), but the formula resulted in a negative c...