Search found 82 matches

by kmedved
Tue Jul 16, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Discrepancies in RAPM
Replies: 4
Views: 717

Re: Discrepancies in RAPM

Our of curiosity Ryan, what's the difference between the version of RAPM you posted here, and the version on NBAShotCharts? I see slight differences throughout. Is this a playoffs inclusion thing?
by kmedved
Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:36 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: NCAA->NBA ML using raw text of historical scouting reports: done!
Replies: 20
Views: 4308

Re: NCAA->NBA ML using raw text of historical scouting reports: done!

This is a very cool idea. Do you have any retrodictions available so we can go "ooh, ahh" about the sleeper picks this system nailed?
by kmedved
Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Regressing toward a prior: Model Selection Question
Replies: 3
Views: 5645

Regressing toward a prior: Model Selection Question

I am interested in approaches for how to weight a sample of increasing size against some set of priors to predict future outcomes. This is somewhat python focused, but I am interested in general modeling thoughts here as this is a common issue to sports stats. I have created a dataset where I have e...
by kmedved
Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: Opponent-adjusted pace?
Replies: 5
Views: 7080

Re: Opponent-adjusted pace?

As mentioned in that twitter post, I publish this (and update it daily) at the following Google docs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19b_3HmmAJUd4_XA82Xd1O1ay0Zi_uYxuhZIjlXmc3cs/edit#gid=0 I basically just use the same method as SRS to do the calculations. All pace data is from Basketball-re...
by kmedved
Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 139933

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

When were these projections created? Any documentation of that date? Reason for posting 2 weeks late? I'd consider based on these answers. Sorry, I meant to link to the twitter post, which had the timestamp (technically a few minutes after the Celtics/Sixers tipoff). Thanks to tarrazu for clearing ...
by kmedved
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2018-19 team win projection contest
Replies: 154
Views: 139933

Re: 2018-19 team win projection contest

Very early rankings https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/ Can you add my projections to the contest? Posted here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iPOzcrhgF-9FCfasdjQs8eKZZg9ZS84NhfIwFv_wPes/ (and google docs for easy/copy paste here: https://do...
by kmedved
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

As you'd expect with square errors, a lot of Shadow's lead is a function of being higher on big outperformers like Detroit, Boston, and Memphis. As an aside, there are more big overperformers (Detroit, Boston, Memphis, Orlando) relative to our average projections than big underperformers (Cleveland,...
by kmedved
Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:02 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

I was thinking of research by @AcrossTheCourt here: https://fansided.com/2017/02/02/nylon-calculus-week-14-in-review-fighting-back-team-3pt-defense/ The Cavs have allowed 41.4 points per 100 possessions on threes so far this year (33.5 attempts at 41.1%). If they allow 36% going forward, then that d...
by kmedved
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

How does the Cavs' SRS of -5.0 project to 42 wins? Orlando at +2.5 is headed to 40 wins? Based on research showing limited (or no) ability by teams to control their opposing 3PT%, I regress each team's opposing FT% and 3PT% to the league average (while keeping attempts as-actually-happened) and use...
by kmedved
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Shadow has now taken the projected lead using regressed SRS as a baseline for future wins.

Image

I feel like we're seeing bigger gaps between RMSE and absolute error than before, but that may be an early season effect.
by kmedved
Sun Nov 05, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Mike correctly guessed that the "wins vs. BetOnline" column looked off. I found a fat finger error there, and now the results as much more reasonable:

Image
by kmedved
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

https://i.imgur.com/cyplkeQ.png I'll update the BetOnline picks sometime this weekend with a better set of Vegas picks (probably the Pinnacle ones posted earlier). As mentioned, BetOnline's format makes beating the number somewhat easier since they juice the payouts a lot instead. Remarkably little...
by kmedved
Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:26 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

Which one is the Pinnacle line? I can add it. BetOnline may not be the best proxy for "Vegas" it occurs to me, as they often juice a lot of their lines rather than move them outright. So their Celtics line was 52.5 (-150), while other sportsbooks may have just moved the over/under down to 52.5.
by kmedved
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

For the record, I much prefer Mike G's results!
by kmedved
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: APBRmetrics
Topic: 2017-18 team win projection contest
Replies: 184
Views: 138667

Re: 2017-18 team win projection contest

I slightly tweaked expected wins here by additionally regressing the impact of opposing YTD 3PT% in each's team's SRS to date. Benefits some teams like the Suns, hurts the Hornets, etc... I also added an entrant called BetOnline (a sportsbook), with their posted Over/Unders as of October 15, and add...