76ers 2012 Hot Start: Analysis via Advanced Stats

[mystic]

OK, no one is arguing that anyone else is arguing for more minutes for Young. I merely asked a question: should he get more minutes?

I think you are arguing a strawman here. Nothing else.

Now that I've looked closely at this lineup, I think the Sixers' success is rather fragile. Hawes is their only real C, and he's only played half their minutes. After him, Brand is their only known quantity.
If Hawes should be lost for the season, they'd have to trade one or two good SF/G types for a serviceable Big.

The 76ers are doing better with Brand or Vucevic at C so far this season than with Hawes as their C according to 82games.com.
That injuries will effect the quality of the team is true for ALL teams in the league. They could use another big, but good enough C are not growing on trees, unlike good enough SG/SF.


Evan, the SLC is often labelled as hostile environment for away teams. Since the 2001/02 season in 48 games (either RS or Playoffs) it was:

+7.1 Jazz @home
+3.6 Nuggets @home

The Jazz had in average 1.3 SRS, the Nuggets 1.0 SRS. Well, taking 4.7 for Denver as HCA and 4.5 for the Jazz, we get:

+4.8 for the Jazz @home
+4.4 for Denver @home

It is a 10.7 difference vs a 9.2 difference. Well, not so much of a difference between reality and expectations.

[Mike G]

The 76ers are doing better with Brand or Vucevic at C so far this season than with Hawes as their C according to 82games.com.
That injuries will effect the quality of the team is true for ALL teams in the league. ..

Through 6 games, Hawes averaged 32.5 minutes. Since then (with 0 for a dnp), he's averaged 16.7 .
His minutes have declined each year since 2008-09. We don't know if he can go 30 mpg for a season.

When Brand or Vucevic are at C, the Sixers are generally kicking ass against some 2nd unit. If 82games.com doesn't adjust for the level of the competition, then it can seem they're 'doing better' with Hawes off the floor.

If Brand or Vucevic is the starting C, then both will play more minutes, and maybe that will be fine. Or maybe they'll be playing a lot of 'small ball', and opponents may adapt to that.

[mystic]

When Brand or Vucevic are at C, the Sixers are generally kicking ass against some 2nd unit. If 82games.com doesn't adjust for the level of the competition, then it can seem they're 'doing better' with Hawes off the floor.

http://basketballvalue.com/teamunits.ph ... 2&team=PHI

No idea, but bbv seems to think the same, the 76ers are doing fine with Brand or Vucevic at C.

If Brand or Vucevic is the starting C, then both will play more minutes, and maybe that will be fine. Or maybe they'll be playing a lot of 'small ball', and opponents may adapt to that.

I think they can get like 35 quality minutes* at C out of both of them. After that it gets tricky, because Battie would at least need to play some quality minutes. So far, I think, even with Hawes only getting 20, they have not a problem with their C rotation. That will obviously change in case of an injury to Hawes. But as I pointed out, each team will suffer in terms of depth at a certain position, if the respective starter is injured. Heck, even a 20 minute rotation player will be missed. Take Evan Turner for example. If he is out, the wing rotation for the 76ers will get worse. That is trivial.

* minutes against quality opponents, not garbage time

[J.E.]

Words on T.Young

Very good breakdown. Thanks

If Young should get more minutes, who should get less?

Right now, with the way they're playing, I wouldn't mess with the rotation at all. They have a +15 point differential, no one is complaining. Brand was their big free agent aquisition, so I guess it would be a little awkward if he came off the bench, too

Given the fact that I know that J.E. is german, and german males are usually exactly saying what they mean

Haha. I'm not so sure, I often overstate things to drive my point home, like the "Thad Young for MVP"-remark. I know that, in this world, he will not get a single MVP vote. Whether he should, is debatable, I think. If I had a vote, and the 76ers end up, say, with a +9 differential with Young playing 3/5 of the minutes with a +24 On Court Rating, +16 On/Off, I might give my vote to him


I went and looked if I could find some examples of what makes Young so good in +/-. Specifically things not recorded in the BoxScore. I didn't have to look very long. Here's what happens in the SAC@PHI game from a couple of days ago, right after he gets substituted in:


You can see he's very concerned with boxing his man out. He's not very concerned of grabbing the rebound himself, or otherwise he might have chosen not to stand below the backboard. The way he's boxing out I'd say there's an almost 0% chance for his opponent to grab the offensive rebound

Moving along, here's the situation 4 seconds later:


He runs the floor like a madman (for a PF anyway). Remember he was the guy below the back board, now he's the 76er closest the opponent hoop. He's too fast for his man (Hickson), so Tyreke Evans has to stay with him. This will be important in a minute



The man Evans is supposed to be guarding, Meeks, gets a completely uncontested 3 pointer because Evans had to stay with Young and didn't rotate quickly enough once Hickson was back.
Overall, my guess would be that he's one of the fastest PFs in the league and thus constantly creating "X on (X-1)" situations which lead to easy baskets.

@Mods: Should we move player discussion to a seperate thread? Might be a good idea

In Denver, the Nuggets are 31-28, avg +.90 differential.
In SLC, they're 9-50, avg -10.36

I expected something like this, although a little less drastic. You have two teams that are a lot worse in away games than in their home games. Although it is good to know that it's probably not related to altitude

[mystic]

He runs the floor like a madman (for a PF anyway).

Very good observation. I should have mentioned that too. And that creates some of the threes, but he did that last season too, while his teammates missed it more often. That's why I'm sceptical.

@Mods: Should we move player discussion to a seperate thread? Might be a good idea

Or a thread for the 76ers? Would be indeed good. No idea who has the mod powers to do so.

[Mike G]

Any thread that gets much activity will tend to drift.
The creator of the thread might see fit to coax it back toward the original subject from time to time.

The Sixers' eFG% is .093 better than their opponents'. Seems that could be better than the record?

[kjb]

Thought it was interesting to see Doug Collins say that Philly's defense is designed to give up mid-range jumpers. He said that they're just playing the percentages. That teams can beat you at the rim and from the 3pt line, but that they're not going to beat you shooting contested twos.

Doug's learned a lot since his days in DC. His offense then was designed to get mid-range jumpers. And get to the free throw line. Getting to the FT line was almost a fetish with him in DC.

[DSMok1]

Thought it was interesting to see Doug Collins say that Philly's defense is designed to give up mid-range jumpers. He said that they're just playing the percentages. That teams can beat you at the rim and from the 3pt line, but that they're not going to beat you shooting contested twos.

Doug's learned a lot since his days in DC. His offense then was designed to get mid-range jumpers. And get to the free throw line. Getting to the FT line was almost a fetish with him in DC.

Interesting. That's precisely Orlando's philosophy with Stan Van Gundy.

[EvanZ]

I assumed that was every team's philosophy. Maybe not. Just seems so obvious to a stat head.

I guess the only caveat is that mid-range jumpers have a low percentage, but maybe that is because they are contested more easily? If you don't contest them, surely the percentages go up, it's just a matter of how much, and how much/little those shots are contested. Somewhere there is surely an optimal approach.

I wish the damn Warriors would figure this out.