most improved players of 2011-12
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Tim Lehrbach
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 3:54 am
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
*waits for Jeremy Lin*
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
He might go in the MVP poll after tonight. Incredible.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
My vote for the most improved goes to Jeremy Lin. I don't know how long this Tebow type fame will last but he looked great tonight against the Lakers.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Lin didn't have many minutes until recently. Yet as of yesterday's posting, he had .57 eWins more than he'd have had at last year's rates. This just missed the cut (+.65 eW) for yesterday's installment.
Last year, he was good for .39 eW/484 min -- not enough to contribute much to a good team, perhaps, but still worth an NBA look.
Including last night's numbers, he's now at 2.17 eW/484. This is the neighborhood of Griffin, Duncan, Aldridge, and just above Carmelo.
He's now at .77 eW above last year's rates (in this year's minutes), so should make the top 15.
His per minute eW rate is up more than anyone's, in any minutes. Currently edging out John Lucas III (who was negative last year).
Last year, he was good for .39 eW/484 min -- not enough to contribute much to a good team, perhaps, but still worth an NBA look.
Including last night's numbers, he's now at 2.17 eW/484. This is the neighborhood of Griffin, Duncan, Aldridge, and just above Carmelo.
He's now at .77 eW above last year's rates (in this year's minutes), so should make the top 15.
His per minute eW rate is up more than anyone's, in any minutes. Currently edging out John Lucas III (who was negative last year).
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Alright, here's the Jeremy Lin edition, season 41% over:
And it may be the only way Salmons doesn't run away with 'most disimproved' is if he gets injured.Sacto with 3 of 15 biggest losers.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.65 Monroe,Greg Det .571 20.4 13.0 2.6 2.00 .563 12.9 10.9 1.6 1.13
1.19 Mullens,Byron Cha .495 15.9 7.1 .8 .91 Okl .357 6.8 8.8 .0 -.06
1.10 Gortat,Marcin Phx .574 18.6 12.0 1.0 1.76 .584 14.3 10.9 1.2 1.15
.98 Varejao,Anderson Cle .533 13.6 14.6 2.0 1.57 .550 10.6 11.8 1.5 .97
.96 Hayward,Gordon Uta .506 13.8 4.4 4.4 .92 .568 11.1 4.1 2.2 .27
.95 Cousins,Demarcus Sac .496 20.3 14.4 1.0 1.92 .474 16.7 12.1 3.0 1.31
.92 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por .549 26.0 9.0 3.0 2.23 .540 22.4 9.3 2.0 1.81
.91 Gallinari,Danilo Den .583 20.2 6.4 3.0 1.55 .580 17.6 5.5 1.9 1.01
.90 Chalmers,Mario Mia .641 16.4 3.8 5.7 1.07 .533 10.7 3.5 4.4 .49
.88 Lin,Jeremy NYK .563 24.8 4.4 8.4 2.10 GSW .450 6.8 3.5 4.1 .39
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.86 George,Paul Ind .576 16.4 7.0 2.8 1.18 .534 13.1 6.2 1.8 .68
.86 Pekovic,Nikola Min .646 19.4 10.2 .6 1.31 .561 12.6 7.3 .9 .29
.86 Gasol,Marc Mem .542 16.5 10.4 2.7 1.68 .567 15.3 9.2 2.9 1.27
.84 West,Delonte Dal .510 15.2 4.2 5.9 1.18 Bos .529 10.8 2.9 4.8 .52
.83 Teague,Jeff Atl .548 16.4 2.6 5.8 1.14 .512 12.3 3.6 4.4 .68
.81 Mcgee,Javale Was .506 15.0 12.2 .5 1.67 .555 13.8 11.3 .6 1.16
.80 Crawford,Jamal Por .496 20.4 2.5 5.0 1.25 Atl .536 16.8 2.1 3.3 .73
.79 Williams,Marvin Atl .549 17.9 9.4 2.1 1.49 .542 14.5 6.8 1.7 .84
.73 Harrington,Al Den .557 18.5 7.7 1.7 1.20 .521 14.6 6.8 2.1 .73
.73 Jack,Jarrett NOH .510 17.4 4.2 6.0 1.24 .494 14.3 3.7 4.5 .79
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.06 Salmons,John Sac .433 9.4 4.3 2.3 .24 Mil .503 16.1 4.1 3.6 .91
-.98 Odom,Lamar Dal .428 13.3 7.5 2.5 .77 LAL .581 18.1 10.1 3.6 1.61
-.95 Nelson,Jameer Orl .456 12.3 3.3 7.4 .72 .542 18.1 4.1 8.1 1.42
-.87 Hickson,J.J. Sac .427 9.2 9.5 .9 .49 Cle .494 16.9 11.8 1.4 1.26
-.86 Battier,Shane Mia .453 6.2 3.3 1.8 -.05 Mem .562 10.0 6.0 3.0 .62
-.83 Martin,Kevin Hou .543 22.3 3.6 3.0 1.32 .586 28.4 3.9 2.9 1.81
-.82 Scola,Luis Hou .507 20.5 7.6 2.2 1.20 .531 20.8 9.9 3.1 1.69
-.80 Belinelli,Marco NOH .497 13.1 3.6 1.3 .29 .555 18.0 3.3 1.8 .77
-.76 Felton,Raymond Por .445 13.0 2.7 7.9 .87 Den .517 14.7 3.6 8.7 1.28
-.73 Perkins,Kendrick Okl .531 7.2 8.4 1.0 .15 .524 9.3 12.7 1.4 .64
-.69 Jackson,Stephen Mil .466 15.0 4.0 3.8 .68 Cha .512 19.9 5.3 3.5 1.19
-.67 Artest,Ron LAL .364 7.4 4.1 2.6 .02 .480 11.1 4.4 2.9 .58
-.66 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal .537 23.9 7.4 2.8 1.87 .600 28.9 8.2 3.0 2.28
-.65 Hayes,Chuck Sac .418 6.2 9.2 1.6 .27 Hou .545 10.5 11.2 3.8 1.16
-.64 Harris,Devin Uta .524 14.0 2.1 6.5 .81 .532 18.5 3.1 7.7 1.30
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
To chronicle the Lin phenomenon, a quick update. Season .445 complete.Byron Mullens has reverted to his 2011 form, as his team slips toward historic ineptitude.
Nikola Pekovic (Min) is another astonishing development -- basically keeping up with Lin's rise this week.
And the continuing dismal outlook ranking:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.75 Monroe,Greg Det .567 20.8 12.6 2.5 1.97 .563 12.9 10.9 1.6 1.13
1.24 Mullens,Byron Cha .484 15.6 7.3 .8 .90 Okl .357 6.8 8.8 .0 -.06
1.24 Gortat,Marcin Phx .566 18.4 12.1 1.1 1.76 .584 14.3 10.9 1.2 1.15
1.14 Lin,Jeremy NYK .562 24.7 4.4 9.6 2.12 GSW .450 6.8 3.5 4.1 .39
1.09 Pekovic,Nikola Min .628 19.5 10.5 .6 1.38 .561 12.6 7.3 .9 .29
1.05 Cousins,Demarcus Sac .496 20.6 14.3 1.1 1.93 .474 16.7 12.1 3.0 1.31
1.03 Hayward,Gordon Uta .512 14.0 4.1 4.2 .90 .568 11.1 4.1 2.2 .27
1.01 Chalmers,Mario Mia .656 17.0 3.7 5.5 1.09 .533 10.7 3.5 4.4 .49
.98 McGee,Javale Was .526 16.0 12.1 .5 1.71 .555 13.8 11.3 .6 1.16
.98 Varejao,Anderson Cle .533 13.7 14.6 2.0 1.57 .550 10.6 11.8 1.5 .97
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.96 James,LeBron Mia .604 31.9 9.0 7.7 3.22 .581 29.4 7.9 7.6 2.79
.95 Teague,Jeff Atl .548 16.7 2.6 5.6 1.16 .512 12.3 3.6 4.4 .68
.91 West,Delonte Dal .506 15.1 4.1 5.9 1.19 Bos .529 10.8 2.9 4.8 .52
.91 Gallinari,Danilo Den .583 20.2 6.3 3.0 1.54 .580 17.6 5.5 1.9 1.01
.86 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por .549 25.9 9.0 3.0 2.21 .540 22.4 9.3 2.0 1.81
.84 Gasol,Marc Mem .543 16.6 10.2 2.7 1.63 .567 15.3 9.2 2.9 1.27
.83 George,Paul Ind .556 16.3 7.0 2.7 1.13 .534 13.1 6.2 1.8 .68
.82 Lucas,John Chi .476 17.3 3.4 5.3 1.07 .250 4.0 0.0 3.1 -.44
.82 Vasquez,Greivis NOH .484 12.5 3.8 5.9 .81 Mem .488 8.8 2.9 5.4 .22
.82 Smith,Josh Atl .482 19.4 11.0 3.9 2.12 .531 19.3 10.1 3.5 1.74
Nikola Pekovic (Min) is another astonishing development -- basically keeping up with Lin's rise this week.
And the continuing dismal outlook ranking:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.19 Salmons,John Sac .420 9.0 4.3 2.3 .20 Mil .503 16.1 4.1 3.6 .91
-1.06 Odom,Lamar Dal .436 13.6 7.2 2.6 .78 LAL .581 18.1 10.1 3.6 1.61
-1.04 Scola,Luis Hou .507 19.9 7.8 2.1 1.14 .531 20.8 9.9 3.1 1.69
-.94 Hickson,J.J. Sac .425 9.0 9.4 .9 .48 Cle .494 16.9 11.8 1.4 1.26
-.92 Felton,Raymond Por .440 12.5 2.7 7.8 .82 Den .517 14.7 3.6 8.7 1.28
-.86 Battier,Shane Mia .487 6.8 3.4 1.7 .01 Mem .562 10.0 6.0 3.0 .62
-.84 Martin,Kevin Hou .554 22.8 3.6 3.0 1.36 .586 28.4 3.9 2.9 1.81
-.83 Nelson,Jameer Orl .473 12.9 3.6 7.8 .86 .542 18.1 4.1 8.1 1.42
-.79 Harris,Devin Uta .522 13.8 2.1 6.3 .75 .532 18.5 3.1 7.7 1.30
-.79 Jackson,Stephen Mil .462 14.5 4.1 3.8 .64 Cha .512 19.9 5.3 3.5 1.19
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.77 Perkins,Kendrick Okl .514 6.8 8.6 1.3 .16 .524 9.3 12.7 1.4 .64
-.74 Belinelli,Marco NOH .511 13.9 3.5 1.3 .36 .555 18.0 3.3 1.8 .77
-.73 Hayes,Chuck Sac .400 5.9 9.0 1.5 .22 Hou .545 10.5 11.2 3.8 1.16
-.67 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal .532 24.1 7.4 2.9 1.90 .600 28.9 8.2 3.0 2.28
-.66 Miller,Andre Den .522 12.2 4.7 8.1 1.05 Por .520 15.7 4.9 8.2 1.42
-.64 Artest,Ron LAL .393 8.1 4.1 2.6 .09 .480 11.1 4.4 2.9 .58
-.64 Tolliver,Anthony Min .486 6.4 4.7 .5 -.22 .573 10.2 7.3 1.8 .49
-.63 Davis,Glen Orl .397 10.5 7.1 1.2 .35 Bos .490 14.6 6.9 1.4 .84
-.63 West,David Ind .506 17.3 9.0 3.0 1.44 NOH .549 22.6 9.1 2.5 1.79
-.61 Thomas,Tyrus Cha .410 9.4 7.5 .8 .59 .525 16.3 9.4 1.0 1.13
-.61 Stevenson,Deshaw NJN .390 5.2 3.2 1.7 -.34 Dal .545 13.3 3.6 2.6 .51
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
By RAPM it looks like Teague is the most improved on those in the poll and now a mild positive on non-prior informed.
But Galinari has by far the best RAPM and an equal WinShares / 48 improvement, so I voted for him.
Monroe is below -2 on both prior informed and non-prior informed RAPM. He shouldn't win this award IMO. But he has a good chance of doing so, in a world where RAPM is lightly checked and imperfect. Even by WinShares / 48 Monroe's improve is less than half Teague's and Galinari's.
Those measures certainly have different ranking than eWins. I wonder who looks best on an equal blend of say 3-6 metrics.
But Galinari has by far the best RAPM and an equal WinShares / 48 improvement, so I voted for him.
Monroe is below -2 on both prior informed and non-prior informed RAPM. He shouldn't win this award IMO. But he has a good chance of doing so, in a world where RAPM is lightly checked and imperfect. Even by WinShares / 48 Monroe's improve is less than half Teague's and Galinari's.
Those measures certainly have different ranking than eWins. I wonder who looks best on an equal blend of say 3-6 metrics.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Players who attempt more FG per game than Monroe, and with a better FG% : LeBron, Griffin, Bynum.
His TS% is .576, and the rest of the Pistons are .086 lower.
His 10.7 Reb/36 by far leads the team, and they're an above-avg rebounding team.
The Pistons have dropped from -3.8 SRS last year to -7.5 this year. That creates the illusion of less improvement, in WS/48, from their players.
Teague and Gallinari are with improved teams, and this exaggerates WS improvement among individuals.
His TS% is .576, and the rest of the Pistons are .086 lower.
His 10.7 Reb/36 by far leads the team, and they're an above-avg rebounding team.
The Pistons have dropped from -3.8 SRS last year to -7.5 this year. That creates the illusion of less improvement, in WS/48, from their players.
Teague and Gallinari are with improved teams, and this exaggerates WS improvement among individuals.
Re: Most Improved 2011-12
I found this quite funnykjb wrote:Yeah, I'd be shocked if McGee doesn't lead the league in goaltending calls. It felt like he was cutting down on goaltends in the first few games, but that feeling is gone.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
The inevitable 'more than just a story' story continues to unfold.
Kings with 2 of the 3 biggest dropoffs, another in the top (bottom) 9 :
Counting 261 players who are with the same team as last year: avg eW/484 has risen from .85 to .88, netting +26.2 eWins thus far.
Of 103 players with new teams, avg e484 is down from .60 to .48, netting -10.0 eWins from last year to this.
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.04 Monroe,Greg Det .549 20.4 12.5 2.7 1.98 .563 12.9 10.9 1.6 1.13
1.71 Lin,Jeremy NYK .566 24.3 4.2 9.6 2.14 GSW .450 6.8 3.5 4.1 .39
1.67 Gortat,Marcin Phx .575 18.7 12.2 1.1 1.86 .584 14.3 10.9 1.2 1.15
1.55 Pekovic,Nikola Min .613 19.8 10.7 .7 1.52 .561 12.6 7.3 .9 .29
1.28 Cousins,Demarcus Sac .486 20.4 14.4 1.2 1.97 .474 16.7 12.1 3.0 1.31
1.25 Mullens,Byron Cha .486 15.3 7.2 .8 .87 Okl .357 6.8 8.8 .0 -.06
1.18 James,Lebron Mia .611 31.4 8.9 7.9 3.28 .581 29.4 7.9 7.6 2.79
1.18 Jefferson,Al Uta .505 22.7 11.4 2.3 2.35 .522 19.4 11.0 1.9 1.75
1.17 Durant,Kevin Okl .598 29.2 8.4 3.6 2.58 .576 28.4 7.0 2.7 2.13
1.15 Chalmers,Mario Mia .664 17.1 3.8 5.6 1.11 .533 10.7 3.5 4.4 .49
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.14 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por .544 25.8 9.2 3.1 2.29 .540 22.4 9.3 2.0 1.81
1.09 Hibbert,Roy Ind .534 19.1 12.4 2.4 1.89 .499 16.9 10.5 2.9 1.35
1.09 Gasol,Marc Mem .543 16.3 10.5 3.0 1.68 .567 15.3 9.2 2.9 1.27
1.07 George,Paul Ind .551 16.4 6.9 3.0 1.19 .534 13.1 6.2 1.8 .68
1.07 Mcgee,Javale Was .525 16.0 12.2 .7 1.72 .555 13.8 11.3 .6 1.16
.98 Hayward,Gordon Uta .506 13.3 4.0 4.2 .80 .568 11.1 4.1 2.2 .27
.98 Varejao,Anderson Cle .533 13.7 14.3 2.1 1.57 .550 10.6 11.8 1.5 .97
.95 Anderson,Ryan Orl .595 22.6 9.3 1.2 1.86 .585 18.8 9.3 1.3 1.41
.93 Crawford,Jamal Por .506 19.6 2.6 5.3 1.23 Atl .536 16.8 2.1 3.3 .73
.93 Vasquez,Greivis NOH .507 13.1 3.6 6.0 .79 Mem .488 8.8 2.9 5.4 .22
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.31 Salmons,John Sac .420 8.9 4.1 2.2 .17 Mil .503 16.1 4.1 3.6 .91
-1.28 Odom,Lamar Dal .425 12.7 7.0 2.7 .71 LAL .581 18.1 10.1 3.6 1.61
-1.11 Hickson,J.J. Sac .417 8.4 9.0 1.0 .39 Cle .494 16.9 11.8 1.4 1.26
-1.08 Martin,Kevin Hou .557 22.4 3.4 3.0 1.31 .586 28.4 3.9 2.9 1.81
-1.01 Scola,Luis Hou .512 20.2 8.0 2.1 1.21 .531 20.8 9.9 3.1 1.69
-.99 Felton,Raymond Por .452 12.9 2.7 7.9 .83 Den .517 14.7 3.6 8.7 1.28
-.97 Nelson,Jameer Orl .480 13.1 3.6 7.6 .86 .542 18.1 4.1 8.1 1.42
-.95 Battier,Shane Mia .488 6.9 3.2 1.8 -.01 Mem .562 10.0 6.0 3.0 .62
-.92 Hayes,Chuck Sac .431 5.7 8.4 1.7 .17 Hou .545 10.5 11.2 3.8 1.16
-.91 Jackson,Stephen Mil .454 14.0 4.2 3.6 .57 Cha .512 19.9 5.3 3.5 1.19
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2011 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.87 Harris,Devin Uta .545 14.1 2.1 6.6 .77 .532 18.5 3.1 7.7 1.30
-.84 Miller,Andre Den .499 11.9 4.5 8.4 1.02 Por .520 15.7 4.9 8.2 1.42
-.81 Perkins,Kendrick Okl .520 6.7 9.0 1.4 .18 .524 9.3 12.7 1.4 .64
-.80 Stevenson,Deshaw NJN .396 5.4 3.9 1.6 -.30 Dal .545 13.3 3.6 2.6 .51
-.74 Artest,Ron LAL .387 7.8 4.3 2.7 .09 .480 11.1 4.4 2.9 .58
-.72 Evans,Reggie LAC .470 3.6 11.1 .6 .01 Tor .449 5.2 17.1 1.6 .84
-.68 Thomas,Tyrus Cha .396 9.2 7.5 .8 .56 .525 16.3 9.4 1.0 1.13
-.66 Tolliver,Anthony Min .481 6.5 4.8 .5 -.23 .573 10.2 7.3 1.8 .49
-.66 Belinelli,Marco NOH .527 14.8 3.5 1.3 .45 .555 18.0 3.3 1.8 .77
-.66 Mohammed,Nazr Okl .479 8.0 7.5 .8 .30 .531 15.4 11.2 .6 1.11
-.66 Lewis,Rashard Was .453 10.4 5.5 1.1 .29 .530 14.2 6.3 1.8 .73
Of 103 players with new teams, avg e484 is down from .60 to .48, netting -10.0 eWins from last year to this.
Re: Most Improved 2011-12
Yeah. I think Randy Wittman almost blew a vein in his forehead when that play happened. In his post-game, Wittman made the point that the goaltend was actually the least egregious part of that play. Watch McGee's screen/roll...well...I hesitate to call it "defense" but there really isn't another word to use there.J.E. wrote:I found this quite funnykjb wrote:Yeah, I'd be shocked if McGee doesn't lead the league in goaltending calls. It felt like he was cutting down on goaltends in the first few games, but that feeling is gone.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
I added Lin as a choice, based on the earlier request and his standing on Mike's metric.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
I guess it was well time to update the poll candidates. I've changed it to match the latest top 10 in eWins gained.
All votes were deleted during Crow's editing. In other polls, it seems they remain after being edited by the author.
Several players are now listed who don't "qualify" by the nebulous standards around the official award: Established stars who have kicked it up a notch, or who have bounced back to a previous form or trajectory.
But this isn't about predicting voters; it's about players who have improved from last season to this. All players have an equal crack at this.
All votes were deleted during Crow's editing. In other polls, it seems they remain after being edited by the author.
Several players are now listed who don't "qualify" by the nebulous standards around the official award: Established stars who have kicked it up a notch, or who have bounced back to a previous form or trajectory.
But this isn't about predicting voters; it's about players who have improved from last season to this. All players have an equal crack at this.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
I just posted a huge interactive ASPM take on the most improved player: http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-a ... omparison/
It looks like Pekovic is the leader at the moment, by ASPM/VORP.
It looks like Pekovic is the leader at the moment, by ASPM/VORP.
Re: most improved players of 2011-12
Is Pekovic your leader on a per minute basis? Or per minute * minutes?