Statman's 2011 NBA PLAYOFFS player ratings/rankings

[Statman]

Copied from latest post in my ratings thread:

http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statman ... post378154

Here are the PLAYOFF ratings for all the remaining players that have played at least 15% of their team's available playoff minutes through the games 5/23/11 (Mavs up 3-1, Heat up 2-1)

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Rk Player         Tm Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g  TS%  RAT
 1 LeBron James  MIA 43.5 25.2  8.9 5.4 1.5 1.4 2.5 0.556 150
 2 Derrick Rose  CHI 39.9 27.6  4.4 7.8 1.4 0.7 3.4 0.507 144
 3 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 38.9 28.6  7.4 2.9 0.4 0.6 3.1 0.622 144
 4 Dwyane Wade   MIA 39.6 24.7  7.5 4.5 1.6 1.2 2.9 0.547 141
 5 Kevin Durant  OKC 42.4 29.0  8.1 2.9 0.9 1.1 2.4 0.572 136
 6 Jason Terry   DAL 32.7 17.7  1.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.599 117
 7 Jason Kidd    DAL 34.7 10.5  4.4 7.5 2.3 0.4 2.4 0.570 116
 8 Joakim Noah   CHI 32.6  9.1 10.1 2.4 0.9 2.1 1.2 0.476 115
 9 Chris Bosh    MIA 39.4 18.2  9.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.8 0.559 113
10 Taj Gibson    CHI 17.9  6.8  4.1 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.9 0.597 112
11 R. Westbrook  OKC 37.1 23.4  5.2 6.4 1.4 0.3 4.7 0.490 111
12 James Harden  OKC 31.4 12.4  5.4 3.4 1.3 0.8 1.6 0.607 109
13 Jose Barea    DAL 17.1  8.6  1.6 3.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.511 107
14 Carlos Boozer CHI 30.9 12.6  9.9 1.8 0.6 0.5 1.9 0.488 106
15 Luol Deng     CHI 43.4 16.6  6.5 2.6 1.4 0.6 1.4 0.517 106
16 T. Chandler   DAL 30.9  7.1  9.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.621 103
17 Shawn Marion  DAL 31.1 10.1  6.2 2.0 1.1 0.9 1.4 0.478 101
18 Nick Collison OKC 23.4  6.4  5.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.650 101
19 Serge Ibaka   OKC 29.8 10.3  7.6 0.2 0.3 3.2 1.3 0.519 100
20 Eric Maynor   OKC 12.4  4.8  1.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.478  98
21 P. Stojakovic DAL 22.5  9.2  2.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.558  95
22 Ronnie Brewer CHI 15.2  3.4  2.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.490  92
23 Joel Anthony  MIA 30.4  3.5  5.3 0.5 0.3 1.9 0.8 0.500  86
24 Keith Bogans  CHI 18.9  5.1  1.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.592  86
25 James Jones   MIA 22.7  6.5  2.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.678  86
26 Kyle Korver   CHI 17.6  6.8  1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.522  86
27 B. Haywood    DAL 16.7  3.1  4.5 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.518  83
28 T. Sefolosha  OKC 20.6  4.9  3.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.537  83
29 K. Perkins    OKC 28.2  4.8  5.9 0.8 0.3 0.8 1.6 0.490  81
30 M. Chalmers   MIA 22.8  6.1  1.8 1.8 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.530  80
31 Z. Ilgauskas  MIA 11.6  3.6  3.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.485  77
32 C.J. Watson   CHI  8.9  3.0  0.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.393  75
33 Daequan Cook  OKC 11.9  4.0  1.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.552  68
34 Mike Bibby    MIA 22.3  3.8  2.1 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.360  63
35 Nazr Mohammed OKC 10.6  2.3  2.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.410  56
36 Omer Asik     CHI 10.4  1.1  2.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.417  56
37 D. Stevenson  DAL 14.6  3.6  0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.464  55

Five stars (the usual suspects) have obviously set themselves apart: LeBron, Rose, Dirk, Wade, & Durant. Dallas has shown great depth all playoffs, with 6 of the top 17 players being Mavs. Taj, JJ, & Nick are the super subs that have made a definite positive impact on their respective teams.

Here were the top playoff performers among the teams eliminated in round two (Lakers, Celtics, Grizz, & Hawks):

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Rk Player          Tm Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g  TS%  RAT
 1 Zach Randolph  MEM 39.6 22.2 10.8 2.4 1.1 0.8 2.1 0.522 125
 2 Ray Allen      BOS 40.1 18.9  3.8 2.4 1.2 0.1 1.1 0.700 121
 3 Andrew Bynum   LAL 32.0 14.4  9.6 0.8 0.5 1.4 2.0 0.585 115
 4 Marc Gasol     MEM 39.9 15.0 11.2 2.2 1.1 2.2 2.0 0.549 114
 5 Kobe Bryant    LAL 35.4 22.8  3.4 3.3 1.6 0.3 3.1 0.527 113
 6 Kevin Garnett  BOS 36.4 14.9 10.9 2.6 1.9 1.0 2.1 0.473 113
 7 Paul Pierce    BOS 38.1 20.8  5.0 2.8 1.3 0.4 2.7 0.567 111
 8 Rajon Rondo    BOS 38.3 14.0  5.4 9.6 1.1 0.0 3.7 0.500 110
 9 Josh Smith     ATL 36.5 15.1  8.5 2.9 1.1 1.8 2.2 0.443 106
10 Pau Gasol      LAL 35.8 13.1  7.8 3.8 0.4 1.7 1.7 0.487 105
11 Jeff Teague    ATL 29.8 11.8  2.1 3.5 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.563 103
12 Jamal Crawford ATL 29.8 15.4  1.3 2.5 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.512 103
13 Joe Johnson    ATL 41.4 18.8  4.6 3.3 1.1 0.1 2.6 0.516 102

What stands out is that none of these teams had anyone playing at the elite levels displayed by LeBron, Rose, Dirk, Wade, or Durant. Randolph & Allen each had themselves a nice playoffs though. Kobe & Pau, LARGE drop offs from their regular season performances (130 & 133 ratings during the season respectively). Heck, throw Odom in with those two, a 117 regular season to a 98 playoff drop in rating.

Here are the top guys who found themselves eliminated in round one:

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Rk Player         Tm Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g As/g S/g B/g T/g  TS%  RAT
 1 Chris Paul    NOH 41.7 22.0  6.7 11.5 1.8 0.0 3.7 0.650 159
 2 Dwight Howard ORL 43.0 27.0 15.5  0.5 0.7 1.8 5.5 0.648 159
 3 C. Anthony    NYK 38.8 26.0 10.3  4.8 1.3 0.8 3.3 0.495 139
 4 Danny Granger IND 36.6 21.6  5.6  3.2 1.2 0.2 1.4 0.551 126
 5 Manu Ginobili SAS 34.8 20.6  4.0  4.2 2.6 0.6 3.4 0.569 122
 6 Ty Lawson     DEN 33.4 15.6  3.4  3.8 1.0 0.2 1.2 0.614 118
 7 Nene Hilario  DEN 32.4 14.2  9.0  1.6 1.0 0.8 1.6 0.507 109
 8 Jrue Holiday  PHI 37.6 14.2  3.8  5.6 2.0 0.4 2.2 0.542 109
 9 L. Aldridge   POR 43.0 20.8  7.5  1.3 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.492 107
10 Elton Brand   PHI 37.0 15.6  8.4  0.6 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.569 106
11 Jameer Nelson ORL 36.0 13.2  4.2  5.0 2.0 0.0 1.3 0.444 106
12 Tony Parker   SAS 36.8 19.7  2.7  5.2 1.3 0.3 3.3 0.520 105
13 G. Wallace    POR 37.7 15.2  9.2  2.8 1.3 0.5 2.5 0.548 105
14 Andre Miller  POR 32.3 14.8  3.2  5.5 0.3 0.0 2.2 0.563 104
15 Tim Duncan    SAS 35.3 12.7 10.5  2.7 0.5 2.5 3.0 0.494 103

Paul & Hoaward were pure BEAST mode. Carmelo did EVERYTHING - including missing a multitude of shots. A team can't win a series with just ONE player over a 100 rating (Hornets & Knicks with Paul & Carmelo).

[Crow]

By your ratings the teams who are still alive have an average of almost 5 guys at or above 100. The teams who lost the second round had a bit more than 3 per team. The teams who lost in the first round had about 2.

There is a theory that in the playoffs your top 6 players carry almost all the value. That appears to be the case by one or more other metrics.

Because the playoffs are tougher, perhaps a player with a playoff ranking below 100 on your metric is still contributing a little something to the wins. But the top 3-4 is probably where most of the playoff success comes from, on most metrics.

[Statman]

By your ratings the teams who are still alive have an average of almost 5 guys at or above 100. The teams who lost the second round had a bit more than 3 per team. The teams who lost in the first round had about 2.

There is a theory that in the playoffs your top 6 players carry almost all the value. That appears to be the case by one or more other metrics.

Because the playoffs are tougher, perhaps a player with a playoff ranking below 100 on your metric is still contributing a little something to the wins. But the top 3-4 is probably where most of the playoff success comes from, on most metrics.

I'd agree with pretty much everything you said here.

[Statman]

My latest post in my ratings thread:

http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statman ... post379397

Here are the PLAYOFF ratings for all the conference finals players that played at least 14% of their team's available playoff minutes:

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Rk Player         Tm Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g  TS%  RAT
 1 LeBron James  MIA 44.0 26.0  8.9 5.5 1.7 1.5 2.8 0.556 154
 2 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 38.9 28.4  7.5 2.7 0.5 0.6 3.2 0.625 143
 3 Derrick Rose  CHI 40.6 27.1  4.3 7.7 1.4 0.7 3.7 0.490 136
 4 Kevin Durant  OKC 42.5 28.6  8.2 2.8 0.9 1.1 2.5 0.568 134
 5 Dwyane Wade   MIA 39.6 23.7  7.2 4.1 1.7 1.2 3.3 0.539 134
 6 Jason Kidd    DAL 34.7  9.9  4.5 7.7 2.2 0.3 2.3 0.548 115
 7 Chris Bosh    MIA 39.9 18.6  8.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.8 0.564 115
 8 Joakim Noah   CHI 33.1  8.7 10.2 2.5 1.0 2.1 1.2 0.465 114
 9 Jason Terry   DAL 32.6 17.3  1.9 3.2 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.595 114
10 James Harden  OKC 31.6 13.0  5.4 3.6 1.2 0.8 1.6 0.617 112
11 R. Westbrook  OKC 37.5 23.8  5.4 6.4 1.4 0.4 4.6 0.489 112
12 Jose Barea    DAL 17.5  8.9  1.7 3.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.513 109
13 Taj Gibson    CHI 17.8  5.9  4.1 0.6 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.569 107
14 Carlos Boozer CHI 31.7 12.6  9.7 1.8 0.6 0.4 1.8 0.486 104
15 Luol Deng     CHI 42.9 16.9  6.6 2.7 1.5 0.6 1.6 0.517 104
16 Shawn Marion  DAL 31.7 11.2  6.3 2.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 0.497 103
17 T. Chandler   DAL 30.4  7.3  9.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.612 103
18 Serge Ibaka   OKC 28.8  9.8  7.3 0.2 0.2 3.1 1.2 0.506  98
19 Ronnie Brewer CHI 16.3  4.0  2.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.547  98
20 Nick Collison OKC 24.3  6.7  5.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.651  95
21 P. Stojakovic DAL 21.6  8.8  1.9 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.552  95
22 Eric Maynor   OKC 12.9  4.8  1.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.474  91
23 Joel Anthony  MIA 30.1  3.3  5.1 0.5 0.5 2.1 0.8 0.495  87
24 B. Haywood    DAL 16.6  3.4  4.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.548  86
25 James Jones   MIA 22.7  6.5  2.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.678  85
26 C.J. Watson   CHI  8.5  3.2  0.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 1.1 0.415  85
27 Keith Bogans  CHI 19.2  5.1  1.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.577  85
28 M. Chalmers   MIA 22.5  6.1  1.6 1.5 1.1 0.1 1.2 0.564  84
29 T. Sefolosha  OKC 20.2  4.6  3.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.537  82
30 Kyle Korver   CHI 17.3  6.6  1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.517  82
31 K. Perkins    OKC 28.2  4.5  6.1 0.8 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.478  80
32 Z. Ilgauskas  MIA 11.6  3.6  3.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.485  78
33 Mike Miller   MIA 10.1  2.2  2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.433  74
34 Daequan Cook  OKC 11.5  3.8  1.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.552  67
35 Mike Bibby    MIA 21.9  3.6  1.9 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.346  60
36 Nazr Mohammed OKC 10.6  2.3  2.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.410  56
37 Omer Asik     CHI  9.9  1.0  2.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.417  53
38 Udonis Haslem MIA 19.0  3.8  3.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.377  52
39 D. Stevenson  DAL 15.3  3.5  0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.413  51

Looking at these numbers - if you were to combine the Heat & Mavs - you'd have James, Wade, Bosh, Dirk, & Kidd starting. Then the next 5 guys off your bench would be Mavs: JET, JJ, Marion, Chandler, & Peja.

[Statman]

The latest post in my ongoing ratings thread:

http://www.pointguardu.com/f136/statman ... post381672

Here are the ratings for just the 6 games of the Finals series - I included every dude that played just for the heck of it:

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Rk Player        Tm  Mn/g Pt/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g  TS% Rating
 1 Dwyane Wade   MIA 39.0 26.5 7.0 5.2 1.5 1.5 2.5 0.600 156
 2 Jason Terry   DAL 32.5 18.0 2.0 3.2 1.3 0.0 1.3 0.593 121
 3 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 40.3 26.0 9.7 2.0 0.7 0.7 2.8 0.527 121
 4 D. Stevenson  DAL 17.2  7.0 1.5 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.808 107
 5 T. Chandler   DAL 37.3  9.7 8.8 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.604 104
 6 LeBron James  MIA 43.7 17.8 7.2 6.8 1.7 0.5 4.0 0.535 100
 7 M. Chalmers   MIA 29.0 11.8 2.7 3.5 1.5 0.0 1.7 0.607 100
 8 Shawn Marion  DAL 35.7 13.7 6.3 2.3 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.516 100
 9 Jason Kidd    DAL 37.3  7.7 4.5 6.3 1.2 0.8 3.5 0.575  99
10 Chris Bosh    MIA 39.3 18.5 7.3 1.0 0.3 0.5 2.2 0.489  92
11 Jose Barea    DAL 21.3  8.8 2.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 1.5 0.453  91
12 Eddie House   MIA 12.5  4.5 2.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 0.500  81
13 Ian Mahinmi   DAL  9.0  3.0 1.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.600  80
14 B. Haywood    DAL  8.7  1.7 2.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.417  80
15 Udonis Haslem MIA 29.3  6.7 5.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.471  80
16 Mike Bibby    MIA 17.4  3.8 1.4 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.6 0.475  73
17 Juwan Howard  MIA  5.8  1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.563  73
18 Mike Miller   MIA 15.7  3.5 2.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.7 0.457  71
19 Joel Anthony  MIA 20.7  1.3 3.5 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.2 0.286  64
20 B. Cardinal   DAL  6.0  1.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.875  37
21 P. Stojakovic DAL  6.5  0.5 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.200   0

Wade was the best player - but his team lost, so he's not the MVP. My ratings pretty much say it's a toss up between Dirk & Terry - I think either would have been a fine choice. Stevenson & Chalmers stepped up. LeBron was a completely average player, Bosh was even below average - so much for the "Big 3". Peja was horrible in his limited minutes.

Here are the ratings for the Mavs/Heat players for the ENTIRE playoffs - listing only the guys that played at least 15% of available team minutes:

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Rk Player        Tm  GP Mn/g Pt/g R/g A/g S/g B/g T/g  TS% Rating
 1 Dwyane Wade   MIA 21 39.4 24.5 7.1 4.4 1.6 1.3 3.0 0.557 142
 2 LeBron James  MIA 21 43.9 23.7 8.4 5.9 1.7 1.2 3.1 0.551 139
 3 Dirk Nowitzki DAL 21 39.3 27.7 8.1 2.5 0.6 0.6 3.1 0.595 137
 4 Jason Terry   DAL 21 32.6 17.5 1.9 3.2 1.2 0.1 1.5 0.595 116
 5 Jason Kidd    DAL 21 35.4  9.3 4.5 7.3 1.9 0.5 2.7 0.554 107
 6 Chris Bosh    MIA 21 39.7 18.6 8.5 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.9 0.540 106
 7 Jose Barea    DAL 21 18.6  8.9 1.9 3.4 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.495 105
 8 T. Chandler   DAL 21 32.4  8.0 9.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.609 103
 9 Shawn Marion  DAL 21 32.9 11.9 6.3 2.1 1.0 0.9 1.7 0.503 103
10 M. Chalmers   MIA 21 24.3  7.8 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.0 1.3 0.582  92
11 P. Stojakovic DAL 19 18.4  7.1 1.7 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.538  88
12 B. Haywood    DAL 18 15.3  3.1 4.1 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.533  83
13 Joel Anthony  MIA 21 27.4  2.8 4.6 0.5 0.4 1.8 0.6 0.450  82
14 James Jones   MIA 12 22.7  6.5 2.5 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.678  82
15 Mike Miller   MIA 18 11.9  2.6 2.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.443  74
16 D. Stevenson  DAL 21 15.8  4.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.528  72
17 Udonis Haslem MIA 12 24.2  5.3 4.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.432  65
18 Mike Bibby    MIA 20 20.8  3.7 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.372  61

Wade passed James - who had the highest rating going into the finals after three great series. Dirk was within "margin of error" distance for one to still say he was the best player of the entire playoffs. JET had a fine playoffs himself.

[Crow]

So the Heat played about 100 listed minutes of players "per game" here (about half that when you account for DNPs) with ratings of 82 or below for the entire playoffs and the finals. They got two stars significantly over 100 for the entire playoffs but just one in the Finals.

Mavs only played about 30 minutes per game of players "per game" (slightly less after accounting for DNPs) with ratings of 83 or below for the entire playoffs and the finals. They got two stars significantly over 100 for both the entire playoffs and the Finals.

Mavs 6 over 99 for both the entire playoffs and the Finals, Heat just 3 in each.

Three big differences by these cuts.

[Mike G]

A similar breakdown occurred to me. Regarding the replacement player concept, it seems unfortunate that at the most competitive level, players who were earlier considered 'serviceable' are now rated as 'sub-replacement'. eWins suffers the same prejudice.

It looks like this Rating puts 7.6% of Mavs' player-minutes below replacement level (85) and 37.6% of Miami's. That's 22.4% of all.
eWins has 21% of Miami's player-minutes below RL, 4% of Dallas' -- 12.5% total.
EvanZ's WARP puts 14.8% of Dallas' lineups below RL, 31.7% of Miami's -- 23.2% of total.

I was thinking my 12.5% was way high.
In the regular season, Miami led all teams with 8% of minutes from sub-replacement guys.
Dallas had essentially none. League avg was 4% (by eWins/Min).
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... ?f=2&t=211
(2nd post on the page)

Both coaches had been shelving various players who had crept toward or beyond the zero threshold. Joel Anthony's minutes dropped in each series, and in the last 3 games went from 28 to 16 to 11. Hustle (alone) just didn't cut it.

[Statman]

A similar breakdown occurred to me. Regarding the replacement player concept, it seems unfortunate that at the most competitive level, players who were earlier considered 'serviceable' are now rated as 'sub-replacement'. eWins suffers the same prejudice.

It looks like this Rating puts 7.6% of Mavs' player-minutes below replacement level (85) and 37.6% of Miami's. That's 22.4% of all.
eWins has 21% of Miami's player-minutes below RL, 4% of Dallas' -- 12.5% total.
EvanZ's WARP puts 14.8% of Dallas' lineups below RL, 31.7% of Miami's -- 23.2% of total.

I was thinking my 12.5% was way high.
In the regular season, Miami led all teams with 8% of minutes from sub-replacement guys.
Dallas had essentially none. League avg was 4% (by eWins/Min).
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... ?f=2&t=211
(See about 1/3 of the way down the page.)

Both coaches had been shelving various players who had crept toward or beyond the zero threshold. Joel Anthony's minutes dropped in each series, and in the last 3 games went from 28 to 16 to 11. Hustle (alone) just didn't cut it.

85 may be too high for replacement player, maybe it should be as low as 80. If I ever really start using VORP type analysis, I'll have to dig into it deeper.

[Mike G]

Now that I've done all the hand-entering, it's easy enough to do a bit more analysis.
StatManRatings (smr) for Finals participants weighted by minutes total : Dal 102.6 - 97.9 Mia.
The total of these is 200.4 (should be 200 ?)

Nevertheless,by fraction of the total, it's Dal .512 - .488 Mia.
The points scored in the series was Dal .506 - .494 Mia.
eWins were Dal .541 - .459 Mia
Pythagorean was Dal .582 - .418 Mia

While eWins halves the difference in the Pythagorean ratios, SMR seems to double the point differential?

EDIT: Sorry, I again thought the Rating was per-minute, and it's already adjusted in some manner.
Actual per minute rating would of course be different.

[Statman]

Now that I've done all the hand-entering, it's easy enough to do a bit more analysis.
StatManRatings (smr) for Finals participants weighted by minutes total : Dal 102.6 - 97.9 Mia.
The total of these is 200.4 (should be 200 ?)
Nevertheless,by fraction of the total, it's Dal .512 - .488 Mia.
The points scored in the series was Dal .506 - .494 Mia.
eWins were Dal .541 - .459 Mia
Pythagorean was Dal .582 - .418 Mia

While eWins halves the difference in the Pythagorean ratios, SMR seems to double the point differential?

EDIT: Sorry, I again thought the Rating was per-minute, and it's already adjusted in some manner.
Actual per minute rating would of course be different.

Actually - the team averages taking the individuals weighted by minutes is 102.5 for the Mavs, 97.5 with the Heat. That's with no round off on the individual ratings, and including the massive -234 for Magliore in his one minute of PT (not included above). Dallas scored 568, the Heat 554. 568/554*100 = 102.5. 554/568*100 = 97.5. The weighted averages exactly match the ratio of team points.

That being said - you do point out an issue. The reason the ratings appear to double the point differentials is because the ratings (team point ratios) are adusted off each other and NOT a normal entire season point differential (which SoS is assumed at 100). This is a small sample size weirdness of taking a rating system designed for a season and using it for a series (which I don't really do usually) with only 2 teams involved with the point differentials. Oh well, a rating point either way when applying a season rating system to a series doesn't stress me out too much, it would have been, however, worse in a series blow out in favor of the dominant team. If I ever use this rating again for a single game or series between two teams - I should use tmPts/(tmPts+oppPts)*200 as the team ratio (rating) instead of tmPts/oppPts*100 - that should give the exact results in relation to the game (or series) point differential.

Thanks for looking into that Mike G - it showed me something I had overlooked with these ratings here in terms of a game or series.