2014 playoff summaries and misc.

[Mike G]

-- see previous post --
Only half as many top rebounders this year as we'd expect?
Among players with >300 playoff minutes last year and this year, last year's best rebounders:

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2013    TReb%   2014
16.7   Duncan   13.9
15.9   Hibbert  11.3
14.1   Leonard  12.9
14.1   Ibaka    12.3
13.7   Bosh     10.0
12.6 Stephenson 11.3
12.4   LeBron   11.3
12.3   D West   10.5
11.5   Durant   12.2
10.6   George   11.5

13.4    avg     11.7

Last year's top 8 have all dropped off this year. On average, down by 16%
Are the best rebounding teams all in the playoffs this year? Is a faster pace giving a higher share of rebounds to perimeter guys?
Inquiring minds want to know.

[Mike G]

Last year, after one game in the NBA Finals, Danny Green had hit .432 from the arc in playoffs. He then hit 5-5 and 7-9 in the next 2 games.
This year, going into the Western finals, he'd hit .432 of his threes; then shot 4-5 and 7-10 to open the series.

His attempts and minutes are down this year -- from 4.9 per game to 3.7; minutes/G from 30 to 22
After last year's outburst, he hit .423 of his remaining threes.

Spurs have gained a point per minute when he's on the floor in games 1-2.
He hasn't attempted a FT in over 170 minutes.

[Mike G]

Best postseasons in the last 10 years, by Win Shares per 48. Minimum 350 minutes.
Per 36 minute rates are shown.

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playoffs  yr    tm   G   Min    Pts   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk   PER  ws/48
LeBron   2009  Cle  14   580   30.7   7.9   6.3   1.4   .7   37.4   .399
LeBron * 2014  Mia   9   359   27.1   6.4   4.2   1.5   .4   32.8   .331
C Paul   2008  NOH  12   486   21.4   4.4  10.0   2.1   .1   30.7   .289
...

After 2 games of the ECF, LeBron's ws/48 are at .296, his PER at 31.3
Both are still good for #2 in the era.

Another 2 games in, LeBron is at 32.2 and .307

[Mike G]

After 5 games of the WCF, the Spurs' rotation players vs Dal (7 G), Por (5), and OKC (5).
Standardized per36 minute rates are shown.

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      Tim Duncan                              
eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWins
.111   35   .599   18.3   9.4   1.5   2.7   .2    .8  1.9    0   1.52   .77
.099   32   .489   15.0   8.9   3.1   2.3   .5    .5  1.6    0   1.46   .49
.134   28   .547   24.0  12.3   2.9   2.6   .0   1.8  1.0    0   2.27   .67

      Tony Parker                              
.087   33   .509   21.7   3.0   6.0   1.9   .5   3.6   .2    3   1.26   .61
.113   29   .541   27.8   2.9   6.8   2.5  1.0   4.2   .0    3   1.88   .57
.077   30   .511   18.7   2.9   8.2   1.5  1.0   3.5   .0    1   1.25   .39

      Kawhi Leonard 
eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWins
.048   33   .546   13.0   8.8   1.2   2.9  1.3   2.2   .2    6    .71   .34
.154   30   .654   24.3   8.8   1.4   2.7  3.4    .0  1.0    9   2.44   .77
.059   29   .514   13.6   5.9   3.2   2.8  2.0   1.3   .8    4    .99   .30

      Tiago Splitter                              
.097   27   .658   16.4  12.8   3.3   4.4  1.3   1.2   .2    0   1.70   .68
.053   28   .540    9.7   7.4   3.5   3.7  1.6    .6   .3    0    .93   .27
.063   18   .651   13.2  12.2   3.0   2.4   .0   1.6  2.0    0   1.65   .32

      Manu Ginobili
eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWins
.112   27   .599   25.3   5.0   6.1   3.1  2.9   4.3   .2   14   1.97   .79
.030   23   .384   11.1   5.1   5.9   2.3  1.8   3.8   .0    2    .64   .15
.125   21   .745   33.5   3.5   6.1   5.0  1.7   1.0   .0   14   2.89   .63

      Danny Green                              
.040   22   .758   14.3   5.5   1.3   2.7  1.2   1.3  2.0   11    .89   .28
.040   23   .537   13.3   5.8   1.3   3.5  1.6   1.0   .9    8    .83   .20
.069   24   .705   21.5   4.9   1.0   3.4  2.5   1.3   .6   18   1.39   .34

      Boris Diaw 
eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWins
.039   23   .633   13.4   4.5   4.6   3.2   .9   1.1   .0    5    .82   .28
.048   21   .629   17.5   5.1   3.5   4.7   .6   1.7   .3    2   1.08   .24
.075   25   .552   16.3   8.3   5.0   1.1   .8   2.3   .3    5   1.45   .38

      Marco Belinelli                              
-.008  13   .458    6.1   4.9    .8   2.9   .0    .8   .0    4   -.28  -.05
.051   21   .653   17.7   4.8   2.2   1.9   .6    .0   .0    6   1.15   .25
.009   18   .509   10.8   6.8   3.0   2.3   .0   2.7   .0    1    .25   .05

      Patrick Mills 
eW/G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   3s   e480  eWins
.011   16   .456   10.9   3.8   3.3   3.0  1.8   2.5   .0    6    .33   .08
.065   15   .663   31.1   2.1   2.6   2.6  2.2   1.4   .4    8   2.12   .33
.008   14   .420    8.5   4.7   3.9   4.0   .5    .5   .0    5    .28   .04

All 9 players have been above-avg (e480 > 1.00) in at least one series.
None have been very consistent between series, except that Diaw has gotten consistently stronger.
Ginobili has just 3 TO vs Okl.

[Mike G]

Pacers' numbers thru 3 rounds:

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      Paul George                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Atl   41   .593   28.1   9.6   3.8   2.4   2.2   2.3   .5   2.40  1.42
Was   42   .536   19.9   6.3   2.9   2.8   1.9   2.3   .3   1.36   .72
Mia   41   .571   23.0   6.0   3.9   2.5   1.6   2.7   .1   1.60   .81
                                 
      David West                           
Atl   36   .517   15.3   7.1   4.6   2.9   1.3   2.7  1.6   1.11   .58
Was   37   .480   17.1   6.8   4.7   2.6    .2   1.7   .3   1.21   .56
Mia   36   .581   17.9   9.4   3.4   3.6    .7   2.9   .3   1.26   .56
                                 
      Lance Stephenson                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Atl   34   .552   19.8   9.5   3.0   2.7    .9   3.0   .4   1.33   .67
Was   37   .472   12.0   6.4   6.0   2.3    .7   2.4   .2    .89   .42
Mia   40   .564   13.1   6.6   5.0   3.5    .9   2.2   .0    .87   .44
                                 
      Roy Hibbert                           
Atl   22   .397    7.2   6.5    .7   5.4    .0   2.7  2.2   -.21  -.07
Was   30   .592   18.2   7.6   1.2   4.5    .4    .0  2.6   1.56   .59
Mia   35   .492   10.4  10.3   1.8   3.2    .4   1.5   .7    .71   .31
                                 
      George Hill 
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Atl   37   .552   15.4   3.5   3.7   2.4    .8   1.7   .1    .71   .38
Was   36   .551   14.1   4.6   3.7   2.6   1.5   1.6   .3    .91   .41
Mia   36   .566   11.6   4.9   2.1   1.9   1.4   1.6   .2    .46   .21
                                 
      C.J. Watson                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480   eWins
Atl   22   .548   15.8   4.9   2.2   3.9   2.3   1.3   .2    .90   .29
Was   13   .475   14.4   4.3   2.8   1.9   1.9   2.0   .0    .75   .12
Mia   19   .500    6.0   4.3   1.0   2.2    .6   1.7   .0   -.33  -.08

      Luis Scola                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Atl   13   .506   20.4   7.2   1.6   3.8   1.3    .9   .0   1.34   .25
Was   13   .446   14.8   7.2    .5   5.7   1.3   1.9  1.3    .71   .12
Mia   13   .471   11.9   6.2   2.1   3.1    .0    .5   .0    .49   .08
                                 
      Evan Turner                           
Atl    9   .622   21.6   6.6   5.5   3.5    .6   3.8   .0   1.27   .17
Was   14   .394    5.3   6.8   4.7   1.3   1.3   1.3   .0    .48   .08
Mia                                 
                                 
      Ian Mahinmi                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Atl   18   .404    2.6   7.1    .3   6.1    .6   1.3  3.4   -.19  -.05
Was   12   .586    9.4   6.6    .0   5.7   1.4    .0  1.0    .48   .07
Mia    7   .600    7.8   8.8   1.8   3.9    .0   2.5  1.5    .28   .03
                                 
      Rasual Butler                           
Atl    1   .000     .0   6.7    .0    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.54  -.01
Was    2   1.00   11.7   4.5   4.7    .0    .0    .0  3.9   2.25   .04
Mia    9   .654   10.3   3.1    .0   1.8    .6    .7   .0   -.04   .00

Most players follow the trend of worsening numbers in successive playoff rounds. Notable exeption: David West.

Miami Heat going into the Finals:

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      LeBron James                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Cha   39   .652   37.3   8.4   7.1   1.6   2.1   2.8   .2   3.50  1.14
Brk   40   .664   34.2   7.1   4.2   2.2   1.1   2.1   .5   2.68  1.13
Ind   36   .626   28.9   8.1   7.6   2.9   2.0   3.7   .9   2.72  1.22
                                 
      Dwyane Wade                           
Cha   33   .538   22.5   4.0   5.9   3.3   1.4   2.8   .3   1.55   .43
Brk   35   .548   21.1   4.9   6.4   2.9   1.5   2.4   .6   1.65   .60
Ind   36   .607   24.3   5.6   6.7   2.6   1.7   3.0   .2   1.98   .88
                                 
      Chris Bosh                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Cha   32   .624   18.1   6.7   2.4   3.1    .9    .9  1.2   1.30   .35
Brk   36   .598   14.7   7.3    .9   1.4    .8    .6  2.0   1.09   .41
Ind   33   .545   17.8   8.5   1.8   4.0   1.1    .8   .9   1.38   .56
                                 
      Mario Chalmers                           
Cha   26   .537   13.8   4.0   7.1   1.8    .7    .8   .4   1.18   .25
Brk   30   .529    9.5   3.7   8.1   3.5   2.0   2.1   .2    .88   .27
Ind   28   .557    8.3   4.7   6.6   2.9    .9   2.4   .7    .56   .19
                                 
      Chris Andersen                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Cha   20   .654   15.5  10.4   1.1   2.4    .4    .4  2.1   1.41   .24
Brk   13   .615    9.1  14.8    .0   3.1    .5   1.1  3.7   1.30   .17
Ind   14   .725   15.3  17.3   1.7   3.4    .4   1.4  1.3   1.86   .32
                                 
      Ray Allen                           
Cha   20   .342    4.2   5.0   3.5   2.8    .8   2.7   .0   -.33  -.06
Brk   27   .657   19.7   7.6   3.2   2.6    .5   1.1   .3   1.45   .40
Ind   26   .598   13.4   4.7   2.4   2.2    .4   1.2   .4    .61   .20
                                 
      Norris Cole                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Cha   28   .673   12.2   1.4   4.2   2.1    .6   1.3   .3    .37   .09
Brk   16   .467    5.4   3.2   2.4   3.4    .4   1.8   .0   -.36  -.06
Ind   22   .580    8.5   2.0   4.8   2.9    .8   1.5   .0    .17   .05
                                 
      Rashard Lewis                           
Cha    8   .364    5.7  11.6   1.3   6.6    .9   1.0  1.9    .51   .03
Brk   14   .433    4.8   5.8    .7   2.3   1.4    .5   .0   -.08  -.01
Ind   17   .554   10.4   3.7    .5   2.6   1.1    .8   .7    .19   .04
                                 
      Shane Battier                           
opp   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
Brk   19   .577    5.9   2.5   1.7   2.4   1.2    .8   .4   -.15  -.03
Ind   12   .815   12.8   2.4    .6   5.7    .5   1.5   .0   -.04  -.01
                                 
      Udonis Haslem                           
Cha   16   .308    3.0  10.2   1.6   5.7    .6    .6  1.2    .12   .02
Brk                                 
Ind   13   .591   11.4   9.6   1.2   5.9    .0    .0   .0    .66   .11
 
      James Jones                                
Cha   16   .600   13.4   3.4   2.8   3.5   1.5    .0   .5    .77   .10
Brk    8   .750   11.8   2.1   1.2   5.1    .0    .0   .9    .21   .02
Ind                                 

What does Chris Andersen do so badly that he can't go more than 20 mpg?
D Wade increases his minutes and his play in each round so far.
Rashard Lewis' career is at least momentarily revived.
Heat are averaging almost 5 above-avg players per series.

[xkonk]

I would guess that Birdman's main issue is that he's a tall guy on a smallball team that already has Chris Bosh.

[Mike G]

The Spurs have outscored playoff opponents by 8 ppg. Miami has been better by 7 ppg. Next best is the Clipps at +2.0
But how do they rank when you consider the competition?
There are a few ways to do this; but relative to their playoff opponents' regular-season SRS, they rank like this:

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2014  season - playoffs - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Team    SRS    MOV   oppSRS   SRS     diff    impr
SAS    8.00    8.0    4.59   12.59    4.59    82.5
LAC    7.27    2.0    5.85    7.85     .58     7.5
Mia    4.15    7.0     .69    7.69    3.54    53.1
Dal    2.91   -2.0    8.00    6.00    3.09    21.6

Hou    5.06     .3    4.44    4.74    -.32    -1.9
Okl    6.66   -1.0    5.63    4.63   -2.03   -38.7
Was     .48     .9    2.53    3.43    2.95    32.4
GSW    5.15   -4.5    7.27    2.77   -2.38   -16.7

Team    SRS    MOV   oppSRS   SRS     diff    impr
Atl    -.88   -1.0    3.63    2.63    3.51    24.6
Brk   -1.58   -1.3    3.22    1.92    3.50    42.0
Mem    2.18   -5.4    6.66    1.26    -.92    -6.4
Por    4.44   -6.2    6.40     .20   -4.24   -46.7

Ind    3.63   -1.0    1.14     .14   -3.49   -66.4
Tor    2.55   -1.6   -1.58   -3.18   -5.73   -40.1
Chi    1.20   -4.6     .48   -4.12   -5.32   -26.6
Cha    -.89   -9.8    4.15   -5.65   -4.76   -19.0
                        
avg    3.15   -1.26   3.94    2.68    -.47     .08

Columns: RS SRS, PO margin of victory, PO opponents' (games weighted) RS SRS, PO SRS = MOV + oppSRS, diff = PO SRS - RS SRS , impr = diff * G
The averages are for all teams weighed equally.

Multiplied by games, the Pacers are these playoffs biggest underachievers, in points for/against, relative to their regular season.
The Clipps handled the Warriors by 4.5 ppg and then were outscored by the Thunder by 1 ppg.

[Mike G]

Kevin Durant ended up playing 815 playoff minutes over 19 games, averaging 29.6 pts, 8.9 reb, and 3.9 ast.
The only other players with such averages over so many minutes: Olajuwon in 1995 and LeBron in 2012 -- both in title runs.
http://bkref.com/tiny/YuQ6F
Requiring just 600 minutes, add another LeBron year (2006), Kareem in 1974; and in the ABA, Connie Hawkins in 1968 and George McGinnis, 1975.

Westbrook went 735 minutes, with 26.7, 7.3, 8.1 averages.
In 15+ games, only McGinnis (ABA) had done this.
In at least 10 games, you get a couple of Oscars.
http://bkref.com/tiny/kjLvW

[Mike G]

After 2 games of the Finals:

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2014 playoffs      tm    Min    e480    eWins    WS     WS/48    PER
LeBron James      Mia    645    2.88    3.87    3.92    .292    31.5
Russell Westbrook Okl    735    2.44    3.62    2.54    .166    24.9
Kevin Durant      Okl    815    2.07    3.42    2.46    .145    22.7
Paul George       Ind    781    1.81    2.95    2.75    .169    20.6
Tim Duncan        SAS    658    1.75    2.38    2.78    .203    21.5

Dwyane Wade       Mia    588    1.65    2.02    1.60    .131    20.3
Chris Paul        LAC    472    2.00    1.97    1.94    .197    23.7
Manu Ginobili     SAS    503    1.82    1.89    2.01    .192    21.5
Tony Parker       SAS    615    1.40    1.79     .88    .069    16.3
Blake Griffin     LAC    478    1.73    1.72    1.41    .142    21.7

2014 playoffs      tm    Min    e480    eWins    WS     WS/48    PER
David West        Ind    687    1.19    1.70    1.33    .093    15.5
Kawhi Leonard     SAS    624    1.18    1.53    1.96    .151    16.2
Lance Stephenson  Ind    705    1.04    1.52    1.25    .085    13.6
Chris Bosh        Mia    574    1.27    1.51    2.04    .171    19.7
LaMarcus Aldridge Por    441    1.69    1.50     .89    .097    21.1

Tiago Splitter    SAS    474    1.42    1.40    2.27    .230    18.7
Joe Johnson       Brk    469    1.34    1.31    1.49    .153    20.3
Bradley Beal      Was    458    1.31    1.24    1.44    .151    17.0
Damian Lillard    Por    466    1.32    1.23    1.26    .130    19.4
Serge Ibaka       Okl    581     .99    1.16    1.73    .143    16.6

2014 playoffs      tm    Min    e480    eWins    WS     WS/48    PER
Boris Diaw        SAS    493    1.13    1.15    1.68    .164    16.1
Dwight Howard     Hou    231    2.48    1.13     .90    .186    27.2
DeAndre Jordan    LAC    442    1.23    1.13    1.20    .130    16.5
Trevor Ariza      Was    407    1.30    1.09    1.71    .202    17.6
John Wall         Was    420    1.26    1.09     .59    .067    14.2

Danny Green       SAS    469    1.03    1.00    1.69    .173    16.3
Paul Millsap      Atl    267    1.80    1.00     .86    .154    20.0
George Hill       Ind    687     .69     .99    1.49    .104    12.7
Marcin Gortat     Was    382    1.24     .98    1.03    .130    16.5
Deron Williams    Brk    428    1.09     .97     .55    .062    14.6