Euroleague BPM (and, how good is Luka Doncic?)

[josecarlos]

Thanks for the information. Your Englsh is pretty good.

Small correction: the boxscore says he was 1 for 8 from the field.

Several people have said he looks exhausted. He has played just 13 games in 50 days. Maybe it is from the summer. Maybe he should give up summer national ball for the NBA. He almost certainly won't though.

His 3 pt shot has mostly disappeared in recent weeks and was still gone yesterday.

You said he get favorable referee treatment with fouls against his defenders. Do you think he also gets favorable non-calls of travels & carries? I do but would like other opinions.

Another thing I noticed in his season stats: 4 of his 5 best overall games came in Euroleague. Some people tell me ACB is better than Euroleague. On the other hand Real Madrid is way less dominant in Euroleague than ACB. So league quality is still unclear to me. Maybe there is difference between top and middle to bottom?

Sorry, but I don't understand this phrase " Do you think he also gets favorable non-calls of travels & carries?" Can you make it again using other words or explain it a bit?

ACB league is a very competitive and strong league but its level is not better than euroliga. The worst team in euroliga is much better than the worst team in ACB league. We can say that the worst team in Euroleague is a mid-level team in ACB league. A few years ago teams like Baskonia was stronger than today for example. They have a very good team but not so good than years ago. In Euroleague you have several teams like CSKA, Fenerbahçe, Olympiakos or Panathinaikos which has the same level or better than R.Madrid C.F. or F.C.Barcelona.

Spanish teams due to the level of the ACB league perform less in Euroleague than other european teams where their leagues are less powerful

[Crow]

To my eye, Doncic carries the ball some during his dribbles (palms it or turns it over to move it around sharply) and takes extra steps while making changes of directions to free himself for shots or fouls. My impression is that the referees usually let him get away with these rule violations without blowing the whistle. By not calling it, they have made a "non-call" of the rule infraction.

[josecarlos]

To my eye, Doncic carries the ball some during his dribbles (palms it or turns it over to move it around sharply) and takes extra steps while making changes of directions to free himself for shots or fouls. My impression is that the referees usually let him get away with these rule violations without blowing the whistle. By not calling it, they have made a "non-call" of the rule infraction.

That's truth, but this occurs because he plays in R.Madrid C.F. If he played in another smaller team, the referees would not be so permissive

[Crow]

Doncic with his worst game of season by Game Score on Feb. 23. Because of shooting.

[Crow]

Doncic with a Gamescore rating below 10 in 6 of first 25 games. 5 of last 10. Twice as frequent.

[Crow]

Worst game of season 2 games ago. Last game nearly as bad, 2nd worst of season. Missed every fga. 3pt fg% for season continues to fall, currently at a lousy 31.1%. Almost half his shots come from there now. In NBA, a higher or lower percentage? Big question. Depends on role, ability against better players.

Is any big time draft analyst concerned? I haven't seen it. I see Doncic "lock for #1", best Euro prospect ever, GOAT...

Is he going to make as many 5-10 or move dribble drives when he is not one of the best athletes on the court? Will folks play off him more effectively and / or block at the rim more? Pick n roll ballhandler drive is often not that efficient in the NBA (with some exceptions). Want to take the longer NBA 3? Go right ahead til he proves that ability.

[Nathan]

Worst game of season 2 games ago. Last game nearly as bad, 2nd worst of season. Missed every fga. 3pt fg% for season continues to fall, currently at a lousy 31.1%. Almost half his shots come from there now. In NBA, a higher or lower percentage? Big question. Depends on role, ability against better players.

Is any big time draft analyst concerned? I haven't seen it. I see Doncic "lock for #1", best Euro prospect ever, GOAT...

Is he going to make as many 5-10 or move dribble drives when he is not one of the best athletes on the court? Will folks play off him more effectively and / or block at the rim more? Pick n roll ballhandler drive is often not that efficient in the NBA (with some exceptions). Want to take the longer NBA 3? Go right ahead til he proves that ability.

Given that 3-point volume and free throw percentage are as important as 3-point percentage in predicting NBA 3-point accuracy (e.g. see: https://medium.com/@scricca1/so-can-nca ... cee782859e ), I think there's plenty of reason to believe he'll be a respectable shooter in the NBA.

More importantly, though, I'd like to say that I think is passing ability is really what will set him apart. As was the case with Ben Simmons, his raw assist rate is depressed as a result of frequently sharing the court with a traditional point guard. Given a starting PG role in the NBA, I think he could quickly establish himself as one of the best point guards in the league. His skill level, both in terms of the raw velocity/accuracy of his passes, and in terms of advanced passes that create open looks out of nothing, is far beyond previous PG prospects at the same age, even elite passers like Lonzo. Combined with his size and handle, which make him virtually immune to traps, this could make him an extremely dangerous offensive player.

[Crow]

Thanks for the link. Probably will be "respectable" 3 point shooter, initially or eventually... but not a completely sure thing. Is respectable enough for the pick # / hype?

Position or role? At PG, SG, SF, PF? It is not clear to me where / how he will play and what will be "best" initially or eventually. A lot depends on team, team visioning of him, team design. Could go a lot of different ways.

[Nathan]

Thanks for the link. Probably will be "respectable" 3 point shooter, initially or eventually... but not a completely sure thing. Is respectable enough for the pick # / hype?

Position or role? At PG, SG, SF, PF? It is not clear to me where / how he will play and what will be "best" initially or eventually. A lot depends on team, team visioning of him, team design. Could go a lot of different ways.

I imagine he'll play PG on offense and defend wings, if the team that drafts him has any sense. Ast/TO ratio better than even Ricky Rubio's best Euro season, and that's in spite of the fact that he's shouldering a much bigger scoring load than Rubio ever did (which contributes to his TO count). There's reasonable doubt when it comes to his scoring ability, I agree (perhaps even more importantly than his shooting, will his insane free throw rate translate?), but I think he's virtually a lock to become at least an all-star level player because of his passing, and his at-least-adequate all around scoring ability relative to other elite passing prospects like Rubio/Ball. How well his scoring translates will determine whether he's a perennial MVP candidate or just a "regular" star.

[Crow]

Fwiw, I checked how Doncic did in games that were 2nd or 3rd time he faced a team on average compared to games that were the 1st time contests for season. Not all teams are included in the repeat group and the trends may be general rather than because of repeat contest, but... in the repeat game group he got about 10% less 3pt fga per minute, 15% less fta / m, 15% less reb / m, 10% less AST / m, 8% less points and had a gamescore that about 12% less, adjusted for time. Did folks understand how to play him better? Maybe. And / or he was tired or just played worse. Blocks were the only thing I saw that improved. A few things were essentially similar.

[Nathan]

Fwiw, I checked how Doncic did in games that were 2nd or 3rd time he faced a team on average compared to games that were the 1st time contests for season. Not all teams are included in the repeat group and the trends may be general rather than because of repeat contest, but... in the repeat game group he got about 10% less 3pt fga per minute, 15% less fta / m, 15% less reb / m, 10% less AST / m, 8% less points and had a gamescore that about 12% less, adjusted for time. Did folks understand how to play him better? Maybe. And / or he was tired or just played worse. Blocks were the only thing I saw that improved. A few things were essentially similar.

Certainly early in the season teams weren't prepared for him to be a big-time scorer. Last season he averaged less than 8 points per game. Now he's getting the "star treatment" so to speak.

[Crow]

So in terms of opponent treatment, now is the new normal. In NBA as top pick or top 5, the treatment will likely either start with star defensive treatment or get there. Lots of folks will want to shut him down and / or score heavy on him.

[Nathan]

So in terms of opponent treatment, now is the new normal. In NBA as top pick or top 5, the treatment will likely either start with star defensive treatment or get there. Lots of folks will want to shut him down and / or score heavy on him.

Sure, but that's a challenge every aspiring NBA star faces. LeBron is probably the only guy who, at Doncic's current age, was already good enough offensively to be a #1 option on an NBA team. And even for him it wasn't pretty...21 points per 40, but on 48.8% true shooting.

Clearly Doncic has improved as a scorer since last year, but the lion's share of the work is still ahead of him if he's to reach his lofty ceiling.

[Crow]

Doncic's agent has an "interesting" list of clients. A lot of imo underachievers and careers gone south.

[Nathan]

Doncic apparently out 2 weeks with a hamstring injury. Wonder if it was affecting his performance these last few games.