all star snubs?

[Mike G]

Here's an amalgam of 'advanced' stats from b-r.com
All-Star selections are shown by the 1 after the name.
This isn't an entirely comprehensive list. Just players who are currently top 10 in at least one of these categories and maybe a couple extras.

Code: Select all

xyz   player  AS  tm   PER    WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP
17.8  Giannis 1  Mil   32.5   8.6  .292  12.0   5.0
15.9  Harden  1  Hou   29.2   9.4  .258   9.3   5.0
14.4  Doncic  1  Dal   29.1   6.9  .236  11.5   4.8
13.0  Lillard 1  Por   27.2   8.9  .235   7.0   4.1
12.6  LeBron  1  LAL   26.0   7.4  .217   8.7   4.5

12.5  Jokic   1  Den   25.4   7.7  .220   8.5   4.4
12.2  A Davis 1  LAL   28.1   7.9  .262   7.0   3.3
10.0  Gobert  1  Uta   22.6   8.2  .238   5.2   3.0
9.9   Butler  1  Mia   24.2   7.4  .235   5.6   2.9
9.7   Kawhi   1  LAC   26.7   5.6  .213   7.5   3.0

xyz    11-20  AS  tm   PER    WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP
9.3   Towns      Min   26.9   5.0  .214   8.0   2.8
8.3   Simmons 1  Phl   20.7   6.7  .182   5.1   3.2
8.3   Adebayo 1  Mia   20.6   6.7  .185   5.1   3.1
7.7   Paul    1  OKC   21.1   6.3  .192   4.5   2.6
7.4  Middleton 1 Mil   22.2   6.0  .228   4.2   2.0

7.3   Whiteside  Por   25.1   6.2  .208   3.2   1.9
7.2   T Young 1  Atl   24.3   4.7  .138   5.3   3.0
6.9   Sabonis 1  Ind   20.8   5.9  .169   4.0   2.5
6.9  K Walker 1  Bos   21.8   5.3  .189   4.5   2.2
6.9   Noel       OKC   23.1   4.1  .246   5.4   1.8

xyz    21-30  AS  tm   PER    WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP
6.8   Robinson   NYK   22.2   4.8  .216   5.0   1.9
6.6   J Allen    Brk   20.4   5.9  .211   3.5   1.9
6.4   S Adams    OKC   20.7   4.9  .194   4.6   2.0
6.0   Embiid  1  Phl   25.0   4.5  .200   3.6   1.5
5.5   Lowry   1  Tor   17.7   5.2  .171   3.2   1.9

5.4   Harrell    LAC   22.4   5.2  .176   2.0   1.5
5.4   DeRozan    SAS   22.2   5.6  .158   1.7   1.6
5.2   Vucevic    Orl   21.2   3.8  .144   3.9   1.9
5.2   Drummond   Det   22.1   4.2  .122   3.1   2.1
5.2   Theis      Bos   17.1   4.0  .191   4.6   1.7

xyz    31-xx  AS  tm   PER    WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP
5.1   Booker     Phx   20.8   5.2  .144   1.9   1.7
5.0 Valanciunas  Mem   22.3   4.4  .171   2.5   1.4
4.8   Ingram   1 NOP   20.7   4.5  .138   2.3   1.7
4.8   Gallinari  OKC   19.9   4.8  .176   2.1   1.3
4.7   Aldridge   SAS   20.4   4.5  .143   2.2   1.6

4.6   Capela     Hou   20.7   5.0  .187   1.5   1.1
4.4   VanVleet   Tor   16.8   4.5  .148   2.4   1.6
4.3   Beal       Was   23.0   3.8  .121   2.0   1.5
4.3   Mitchell 1 Uta   19.7   4.5  .128   1.5   1.5
4.2   Tatum    1 Bos   19.3   4.4  .137   1.6   1.4

xyz    xx-yy  AS  tm   PER    WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP
4.1   Bjelica    Sac   16.4   3.9  .132   2.7   1.7
4.0   Siakam   1 Tor   19.3   4.0  .137   1.8   1.3
3.9   LaVine     Chi   19.5   3.8  .103   1.7   1.7
. . . 
3.6  Westbrook 1 Hou   20.6   3.3  .104   1.8   1.4

The top 6 (and 10 of top 11) non-allstars are centers. Are centers now resurgent? Some of these guys are having career years, statistically. Are they underappreciated?
http://bkref.com/tiny/zYKIn
Westbrook ranks 46th in VORP this year and 68th in WinShares.

[Crow]

Boxscore metrics tend to value bigs for rebounds, right or less right.

No snub I am particularly bothered by. A few in I would have out / replaced though based on this year performance (like Westbrook, Irving) but a lot of voters will vote superstar names well past their peak. Or vote for flash like T Young.

Westbrook surge probably helped get him in. Maybe last time. Several others are probably last time- Lowry, Paul, perhaps somebody else (Kemba?). I'd expect Booker more likely to make it next season. Probably more deserving than Ingram but was easier at interior position for Ingram.

Towns defense, team record and / or whining without taking more responsibility may have caused him to lose appeal.

Still a chance for injury replacements. Doncic probably "plays" (a few minutes) unless still not ready and team insists he doesn't (probably won't).

[Mike G]

Since 2000, the number of C (and CF) each season with WS/48>.150 and BPM>3:
Minimum 800 minutes.

Code: Select all

year   C
2020  14
2019  12
2018   8
2017   6
2016   6
2015   6
2014   4
2013   3
2012   5
2011   4
2010   4
2009   4
2008   2
2007   2
2006   0
2005   3
2004   3
2003   4
2002   2
2001   3
2000   5

Something is resurgent, as 14 centers is the number we had in a six year interval, 2003-09.
Nobody from before 2007 appears after that year.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Rj5bx

Of course, 800 minutes is not much, and in a full season we'd call that very little. So here are centers who have done it at least 3 times in 1300+ minute seasons:

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years     center    #
1974-78   McAdoo    5
1974-81   Lanier    6
1974-86   Kareem   12
1975-79   Unseld    3
1975-78   Cowens    3
1977-86   Walton    3
1977-83   Gilmore   6

1979-82   Rollins   3
1979-83   Moses     4
1979-85   Adams     4
1981-89   Parish    4
1982-89   Sikma     6

1985-97  Olajuwon  13
1988-94   Ewing     6
1990-02  Robinson  12
1991-98   Divac     3
1993-05   Shaq     13
1994-99   Mutombo   3
1996-00  Mourning   3
1996-99   Sabonis   4

2000-07   Camby     4
2003-05   B Miller  3
2005-15   Chandler  4
2007-12   Dwight    5

2009-14   Noah      4
2010-16   Bogut     4
2010-19   Horford   7
2014-17   D Jordan  4
2015-20   Gobert    6
2016-20   Jokic     5
2017-20   Towns *   4

* Towns is only at 1100 minutes this year, but I give it to him.
Adebayo is in his 2nd year at .150 and 3.0, and a bunch are in their first such season.

[Crow]

As more power forwards and more players in general hang outside, centers are probably getting a bigger share of rebounds. I ran queries and found 50% more guys over 12 trbs per 36 min than 4 years ago and a massively bigger number over 15 rebs / 36.

I dunno if any other factors or stats have changed much for them on average. I dont see much trend in bugs with over 15% assist rate. Last year was high compared to past but not this year. Didn't see an obvious trend in turnover rate either.

[Dr Positivity]

Some lower minute centers on that list which could help the WS/48 if they are played in favourable matchups and have more energy

Overall all star picks look good. Bledsoe has a gripe for the second straight year. 5th in RPM for PGs, good counting stats per 36, only thing he is missing is minutes. With years like 4 Hawks making it in the past, going 3rd all star for Bucks on pace for 70 Ws would not have been unreasonable.

[Crow]

Booker from "snub" to sub.

Another tiny step into the "new generation".

[Mike G]

Of potential replacements for Lillard, Devin Booker ranked after 8 bigs and DeMar DeRozan in the OP table.

[Crow]

Position probably still a factor, though they can do want they want.

[Crow]

Towns an All-Star next season? Probably not without an injury replacement opportunity.