2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Lineup analysis of Clippers there this morning.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
And Phoenix Suns.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Wizards there this morning.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Crow wrote: ↑Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:42 am Here is a first cut (5 minutes of thought) lineup design for the Warriors:
Curry Bazemore Oubre Green Wiseman 16 min / g
Curry Wiggins Oubre Paschall Wiseman 8
Wanamaker Lee Wiggins Green Chriss 6
Curry Bazemore Wiggins Green Chriss 6
Wanamaker Lee Wiggins Oubre Paschall 6
Curry Bazemore Wiggins Green Chriss 6
Order of usage is not specified beyond the initial lineup, which probably starts and maybe closes initially. A death lineup of Curry Bazemore Wiggins Oubre Green might takeover a spot, especially in playoffs.
Minutes / game:
Curry 36
Wanamaker 12
Bazemore 28
Oubre 30
Wiggins 32
Green 34
Paschall 14
Wiseman 24
Chriss 18
Change as appropriate as weeks / months of data come in.
Use others in case of injury, rest, blowout and special situations but max trial of main lineups and minimize random, mostly meaningless dink lineups.
Kerr's most used lineup of Curry Wiggins Oubre Green Wiseman is -16 pts / 100 possessions.
My suggested lineup set from about a month before season did not use it all.
His 2nd biggest minute lineup sucked too. I proposed a version of that with Oubre instead of Bazemore. My version not used or not over 5 minutes. I'd try that more.
We both had Curry Wiggins Oubre Paschall Wiseman as big minute. It has sucked. Either fix it or I'd go away from it.
All 4 of Kerr's biggest minute lineups are bad to horrible so far. Must be finding some helpful dinks here and there. By good eye and / or random luck.
My other recommended lineups had Chriss. Would have to revise or throw out. Either add Paschall or Looney or possibly shift Green to Center and add Lee or other wing.
Kerr has shown little or no interest in Curry Bazeman Wiseman or Wanamaker Lee Wiseman trips as I included. His 9 most used trios are all bad to horrible so far. Wanamaker Lee Wiseman? +37 pts / 100 p in 28 minutes. Curry Bazeman Wiseman? Super great... in 3 minutes test. Too busy with 267 other trios.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Nuggets not using deep bench as much as I thought probable. Losing will lead to that.
Sixers not using Korkmaz as prominently because of injury.
Sixers not using Korkmaz as prominently because of injury.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Rockets absolutely need to remove Nwaba from starting lineup.
Try Wall Oladipo Tucker Wood with Gordon and with Tate. See which does best.
Probably start with Tate and close with Gordon.
I'd play several bench lineups with 0-1 starters with the potential of picking & amping one as a main rotation lineup.
May review more fully later.
Try Wall Oladipo Tucker Wood with Gordon and with Tate. See which does best.
Probably start with Tate and close with Gordon.
I'd play several bench lineups with 0-1 starters with the potential of picking & amping one as a main rotation lineup.
May review more fully later.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Blazers look good on top lineups and pairs. Must be sucking in the dink world. I'd increase concentration of top 6 in lineups (including more Trent) if they care about playoff seeding.
Trades / free agent signings to replace some on ineffective bench members.
Trades / free agent signings to replace some on ineffective bench members.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
In short term Kings should increase use of currently effective starting lineup by 50-75%. They've found / demonstrated nothing else really.
In longer term, Kings should try to move Hield, probably Bagley and maybe Fox.
(Maybe Rockets would have interest in one or more.)
In longer term, Kings should try to move Hield, probably Bagley and maybe Fox.
(Maybe Rockets would have interest in one or more.)
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Nwaba removed from Rockets starting lineup tonight.
Played a lot in new slot and well. And so did others. Rockets win.
Spurs had a bad start with Popovich's starting lineup again. This time -7 in first 5-7 minutes of the game.
Played a lot in new slot and well. And so did others. Rockets win.
Spurs had a bad start with Popovich's starting lineup again. This time -7 in first 5-7 minutes of the game.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Chris Paul has negative raw pairs with all the other starters. That unit is moderately bad. There are no Paul lineups used over 10 before tonight that are positive. There are also no non-Paul lineups used for an average of 2 minutes per game period.
He has a couple of neutral pairs and a couple of good ones with bench players. That might form a good lineup.
Presumably he is going to still start. They better figure out stuff they haven't figured out yet. Better see improvement in next month or two.
They better try some non Paul lineups and see what works. Maybe what worked last season? Nope noting tried over 25 minutes last season is still possible fully.
One change approximations could be tried. I won't call them out at the moment.
He has a couple of neutral pairs and a couple of good ones with bench players. That might form a good lineup.
Presumably he is going to still start. They better figure out stuff they haven't figured out yet. Better see improvement in next month or two.
They better try some non Paul lineups and see what works. Maybe what worked last season? Nope noting tried over 25 minutes last season is still possible fully.
One change approximations could be tried. I won't call them out at the moment.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Early thoughts on transition and new Rockets on twitter tonight.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
A bit more on Suns there today.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Heat:
Starters need way more minutes together.
Starters with Dragic need way more test.
Herro should be with Butler basically all the time he plays and maybe he should play less if not better soon.
Pretty much should have Adebayo or Robinson on court at all times. Both on is strangely just neutral. Some currently bad variations with pair probably need modifications or eliminations. By current line up data, should probably try more with Dragic, Olynyk, Bradley and Iguodala; less with Herro and Butler.
209 lineups used already in 13 games. Under 32% positive. I'd have never used 100-150 of them or at least resolve to weed out many of them. Use discipline & concentration. Instead 500 or more new ones are likely to come.
9 lineups used an average of 1 minute per game. Just 2 over 2 min. / gm. None over 4 min. per game. Should be at least 4-6 over 2 min. / gm. 4 over 4 minutes per game is a desired / likely to be achieved goal based on my preferences / standards and the best lineup should be getting 12 plus minutes per game.
Starters need way more minutes together.
Starters with Dragic need way more test.
Herro should be with Butler basically all the time he plays and maybe he should play less if not better soon.
Pretty much should have Adebayo or Robinson on court at all times. Both on is strangely just neutral. Some currently bad variations with pair probably need modifications or eliminations. By current line up data, should probably try more with Dragic, Olynyk, Bradley and Iguodala; less with Herro and Butler.
209 lineups used already in 13 games. Under 32% positive. I'd have never used 100-150 of them or at least resolve to weed out many of them. Use discipline & concentration. Instead 500 or more new ones are likely to come.
9 lineups used an average of 1 minute per game. Just 2 over 2 min. / gm. None over 4 min. per game. Should be at least 4-6 over 2 min. / gm. 4 over 4 minutes per game is a desired / likely to be achieved goal based on my preferences / standards and the best lineup should be getting 12 plus minutes per game.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
Celtics, 197 lineups used. Only 30% cumulatively positive.
Only one much over 2 minutes per game. At about 6.5 minutes per game (probably due to player absences). Badly negative.
8 of 9 most used player pairs negative (mostly starters). Then 9 of next 11 are positive (half bench / half starters). Probably need to reorganize rotation.
Below average Moreyball, average results. Average defense except too much fouling.
Not impressive.
Only one much over 2 minutes per game. At about 6.5 minutes per game (probably due to player absences). Badly negative.
8 of 9 most used player pairs negative (mostly starters). Then 9 of next 11 are positive (half bench / half starters). Probably need to reorganize rotation.
Below average Moreyball, average results. Average defense except too much fouling.
Not impressive.
Re: 2020-21 lineup design & analysis
95% of Timberwolves most used 20 pairs and trios are non-positive. 85% of quads. 70% of 5 man lineups. Some strong combo of weak talent, bad synergy and bad strategy.
Last night the new starting unit and the Rubio all bench unit combined to be +6. The other 9 lineups were -9. I'd play those first two biggest minute lineups more (or even exclusively). Cut back the losing dink lineup game further.
The suggested Russell Beasley Edwards trio is working in current starting unit but apparently not at all in some of the other variant completions.
Last night the new starting unit and the Rubio all bench unit combined to be +6. The other 9 lineups were -9. I'd play those first two biggest minute lineups more (or even exclusively). Cut back the losing dink lineup game further.
The suggested Russell Beasley Edwards trio is working in current starting unit but apparently not at all in some of the other variant completions.