Crow wrote: ↑Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:42 am
Here is a first cut (5 minutes of thought) lineup design for the Warriors:
Curry Bazemore Oubre Green Wiseman 16 min / g
Curry Wiggins Oubre Paschall Wiseman 8
Wanamaker Lee Wiggins Green Chriss 6
Curry Bazemore Wiggins Green Chriss 6
Wanamaker Lee Wiggins Oubre Paschall 6
Curry Bazemore Wiggins Green Chriss 6
Order of usage is not specified beyond the initial lineup, which probably starts and maybe closes initially. A death lineup of Curry Bazemore Wiggins Oubre Green might takeover a spot, especially in playoffs.
Crow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 09, 2020 4:25 am
Lots of options for Wizards but they will need to dial in the lineup rotation to something decent pretty quick to avoid too much chaos and hopefully be effective enough to stay in playoff hunt.
I'd start with something like this line up set probably. A bunch of deep bench players I don't know. I didnt really consider them but maybe as time goes on.
Westbrook Beal Brown Bertans Bryant 16 minutes
Westbrook Brown Bonga Bertans Lopez 8
backup PG Beal Bonga Hachimura Bryant 8
backup PG Beal Avdija Hachimura Pasecniks 8
Westbrook Brown Avdija Bertans Wagner 8
In no particular order of appearance (beyond first line up of starters / probably closers). Can be more than one stint.
Try 10-20 games and adjust. Vary from this is there is a good reason but I'd suggest they not do the typical 700 lineup thing. At least one big shakes out. Wing priority could vary based on results.
Proposed starters here got just 3 minutes before Bryant went down.
80% of Wizards' most used 20 pairs are negative, more than half badly including Westbrook - Beal at -11.4 pts / 100p. Beal negative with everyone in main rotation but Bonga. Westbrook negative with all except I Smith.
I'd play Beal without Westbrook as much as they are willing. Smith Beal Bonga Avdija Wagner or throw in 1 other.
Westbrook with Smith, Bertans, Bonga and Lopez or Wagner.
I'd trade both and more including Bertans. Going nowhere as is.
I assume that Brooks and most to all of his staff are headed to being gone this summer. 10 man coaching staff and not much to show for it. Good at protecting ball and getting to ft line. Ok shot distribution but poor shooting. In bottom 11 on 5 factors.
Hachimura found 3ball, better at getting to line and perhaps better at boxing out; but team results on court and on / off even worse than last season. Probably not being used optimally. Greatly missing Bryant. Probably should play a lot with Smith or Neto, Mathews and probably Wagner.
239 lineups used. 38% cumulatively positive but 119 were worse than -20pts / 100p. Play with pretty random dink lineups, it usually burns overall.
Crow wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:38 pm
Pretty obvious imo that the Knicks should try Payton Burks Barrett Randle Robinson more when Burks returns.
Not obvious apparently to Thibodeau / Knicks, yet. 0-1 minute use.
Now it is Burks' biggest lineup. 87 minutes is only 18% of his minutes though and only 6% of total team minutes. Mildly negative so far. Decent enough to keep testing. More. With and without Robinson. More without... because of way better results.
Here is comparative analysis of some good and supposed to be good teams in East along with #15 seed Pistons. It includes some data I don't often report and some I have not previously calculated, nor has anyone else in public to my knowledge.
But first, here is some data I have reportedly in past: total number of lineups used and percent cumulatively positive.
Celtics 341 lineups, 37.5% positive.
Bucks 216, 43%.
Sixers 222, 39.6%.
Heat 283, 39.6%.
Nets 254, 45.7%.
Raptors 243, 41.6%.
Pistons 225, 38.7%.
Celtics, by far most lineups used and lowest % positive. Bucks fewest lineups used and 2nd highest % positive. Nets highest percent positive.
Now moving toward the new stuff.
I wanted to compare degree of positive bigger minute 5 man lineups (over 20 minutes for season, a ridiculously low bar meet by few lineups given industry practices) to percent of 20 most used player pairs that are positive.
Of these teams, Sixers and Heat had lowest percent positive of lineups used 20 plus minutes (38%) followed by Celtics (44%). The highest were Nets and Raptors (73%) followed by Bucks at 64%. Pistons were median (58%).
On % positive most used 20 player pairs it was as follows:
Now the new ratio of % 5 man lineups positive at or over 20 minutes ÷ % positive of 20 most used player pairs. In effect a conversion rate of positive pairs into positive 5 man lineups.
Sixers had the lowest conversion rate at .475. Celtics 2nd lowest at .63, then Bucks 3rd lowest at .64. Heat at .76, Nets and Raptors at .86. Pistons with the by far highest conversion rate at 1.93. Doing relatively best at conversion, at least for very biggest lineups (only a small part of the total minutes) with least % positive pairs.
Of course pairs are used simultaneously in pairs and lineups. So they affect / make each other rather than just one way.
And of course not every positive is the same magnitude of positive or same level of use, so this is fairly crude method. But you can see a little bit more about relative lineup performance.
Finally, one more piece of data: % positive of 50 most used player pairs:
Most lineups beyond the ultra dink will draw on the 50 most used player pairs.
Overall across this data, I think it is fair to say Celtics and Sixers generally do worse than most others. Bucks good except on conversion rate. Heat mostly weak except for conversion rate. Nets and Raptors generally good. Pistons weak on everything but conversion rate.
Other conversion rates are possible. Will consider variations for possible future use.
Most all the numbers say something each about talent, fit and coaching / analytics. Some say a bit more perhaps about coaching / analytics.
Conversion rate (positive pair rate ÷ positive 5 man rate with above data)
Lakers 79%
Clips 96
Jazz 71
Nuggets 56
Thunder 3.6x
Total lineups / % positive
Lakers 184, 47%
Clips 240, 41
Jazz 93, 43
Nuggets 203, 38
Thunder 199, 38
% of most used 50 player pairs positive
Lakers 78%
Clips 70
Jazz 80
Nuggets 74
Thunder 18
Pretty tight race between top 3. Nuggets generally behind. Thunder way behind except on conversion rate for a few bigger minutes lineups compared to incredibly weak 20 most used player pairs.
Jazz with by far fewest lineups used of any team studied so far.