Cali having a good week march up rankings.
Lots of turns at top. Will that continue or will an order become more constant?
2021-22 team win prediction contest
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
avgA 5.70 7.60 vegas 6.20 7.82
Crow 5.71 7.70 dtka 6.43 8.81
cali 5.76 7.74 21re 6.45 7.97
shad 5.81 7.67 WShr 6.52 8.44
lisp 5.91 8.05 eWin 6.67 8.77
trzu 5.91 7.87 bpmW 6.67 8.22
5.38 6.08 8.28 2021 6.80 9.02
emin 6.16 7.71 perW 6.94 8.94update Dec 9 -- separation at the top; and a new entry "pewb" is amalgam of PER, eWins, WS, and BPM. Totally cheating, adjusted daily for optimal weight on each component.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 5.51 7.69 21re 6.09 7.83
avgA 5.62 7.62 5.38 6.17 8.40
cali 5.79 7.80 WShr 6.30 8.33
shad 5.81 7.67 eWin 6.33 8.70
emin 5.86 7.68 bpmW 6.57 8.19
lisp 6.05 8.15 2021 6.67 8.84
vegas 6.07 7.74 perW 6.73 8.93
trzu 6.07 8.00 dtka 6.76 8.99
pewb 6.08 8.21
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 5.71 7.73 vegas 6.27 7.89
avgA 5.82 7.70 5.38 6.30 8.45
cali 5.91 7.87 eWin 6.46 8.76
shad 6.02 7.80 WShr 6.50 8.42
emin 6.07 7.79 2021 6.72 8.94
21re 6.18 7.86 bpmW 6.75 8.31
lisp 6.18 8.20 dtka 6.83 9.01
pewb 6.25 8.29 perW 6.84 8.98
trzu 6.26 8.10
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
been a while since i've updated...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... OH861z2U9/
of course some difference from mike g's tracking but it looks like the various live projection models are converging - brooklyn, boston, and cleveland seem to have the largest ranges currently, along with 538 continuing to be relatively pessimistic about gsw
charts: https://imgur.com/a/dVbCj8P
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... OH861z2U9/
of course some difference from mike g's tracking but it looks like the various live projection models are converging - brooklyn, boston, and cleveland seem to have the largest ranges currently, along with 538 continuing to be relatively pessimistic about gsw
charts: https://imgur.com/a/dVbCj8P
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
I am second on mean average error to a party not directly entered in the local contest.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
The rankings have stabilized of late.Last night, West teams went 5-1 against East teams; this has been a trend of late.
After winning more than half of interconference games most of the season, the East is now projecting to avg 40.8 wins vs 41.2 by West teams.
The Cavs are the best in the East -- by SRS (4.98), by projected wins (50.4), by chance of winning the conference (27.6%) -- and it's seen as 78% likely that the winner of the West will win the Finals.
About 95% likely the West produces Phx, Uta, or GS, and 76% chance one is the champ.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
update Dec 19: Not much change in the order, but closer at the top. Vegas drops to the 2nd tier, and '21-regressed refuses to go away. Continuing over- and under-performances (Cle! GS! Phx, Mem / NO! Hou! Phl, LAL, NYK, Atl ...) have made errors worse all around.
update Dec 21 -- The whole field is getting tighter, as the bottom end improves.
Update Dec 27 -- still not much change in the order:
update Dec 29 -- much improvement for all:
Last night, 8 games were played; relative to the avg of our predictions (and our presumed desire to have smaller errors), every game went as well as possible. Teams that we (mostly) 'wish' would win or lose did so when possible.
Had any of the games on the left gone the other way, they'd be "bad-bad".
Under "goodbad", we see games where "it's a shame someone had to lose (or win)".
Overnight, eminence improved by .35 and gained a spot; eWins by only .17 lost a spot.
update Jan. 2Crow and cali have held the top 2 spots for a month now. This is about the biggest separation between 1 and 2 in that time.
I've stopped "de-regressing" the b-r.com projections; so these errors are relative to :
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 5.65 7.80 pewb 6.25 8.42
cali 5.78 7.82 21re 6.27 7.96
avgA 5.87 7.76 WShr 6.34 8.49
shad 5.90 7.73 eWin 6.74 8.99
trzu 5.99 8.10 bpmW 6.75 8.50
lisp 6.05 8.07 dtka 6.75 9.00
emin 6.07 7.82 2021 6.82 8.87
vegas 6.10 7.81 perW 6.97 9.23
5.38 6.11 8.35
After winning more than half of interconference games most of the season, the East is now projecting to avg 40.8 wins vs 41.2 by West teams.
The Cavs are the best in the East -- by SRS (4.98), by projected wins (50.4), by chance of winning the conference (27.6%) -- and it's seen as 78% likely that the winner of the West will win the Finals.
About 95% likely the West produces Phx, Uta, or GS, and 76% chance one is the champ.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
update Dec 19: Not much change in the order, but closer at the top. Vegas drops to the 2nd tier, and '21-regressed refuses to go away. Continuing over- and under-performances (Cle! GS! Phx, Mem / NO! Hou! Phl, LAL, NYK, Atl ...) have made errors worse all around.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.08 8.31 21re 6.55 8.19
cali 6.10 8.21 vegas 6.61 8.26
avgA 6.20 8.15 pewb 6.67 8.82
trzu 6.30 8.52 WShr 6.81 9.00
shad 6.31 8.14 dtka 6.82 9.23
lisp 6.40 8.44 eWin 6.99 9.21
emin 6.41 8.28 bpmW 7.13 8.87
5.38 6.47 8.67 2021 7.28 9.42
. perW 7.35 9.36
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
cali 6.05 8.14 pewb 6.54 8.65
Crow 6.06 8.24 vegas 6.62 8.25
avgA 6.15 8.03 dtka 6.68 9.13
shad 6.29 8.10 eWin 6.75 9.02
emin 6.31 8.14 WShr 6.81 8.89
21re 6.31 8.04 bpmW 6.95 8.69
trzu 6.38 8.38 2021 7.07 9.37
lisp 6.40 8.45 perW 7.15 9.15
5.38 6.46 8.66
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.41 8.49 pewb 6.82 8.96
cali 6.42 8.50 trzu 6.83 8.75
avgA 6.56 8.37 vegas 7.03 8.61
21re 6.64 8.25 eWin 7.12 9.35
shad 6.66 8.50 bpmW 7.18 9.00
emin 6.66 8.44 WShr 7.21 9.11
5.38 6.69 8.95 dtka 7.26 9.45
lisp 6.77 8.79 2021 7.31 9.50
. perW 7.46 9.52Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.18 8.15 vegas 6.85 8.27
cali 6.20 8.09 eWin 6.95 9.06
emin 6.33 8.07 bpmW 6.96 8.68
avgA 6.39 8.02 2021 6.97 9.18
5.38 6.46 8.58 WShr 6.98 8.74
shad 6.47 8.14 dtka 7.11 9.13
21re 6.53 8.02 perW 7.24 9.25
trzu 6.63 8.45
pewb 6.64 8.61
lisp 6.64 8.48 Code: Select all
goodgood goodbad
NOP>Cle Mil>Orl
NYK>Min Mia>Was
Phl>Tor LAL>Hou
Den>GSW
Sac>OKCUnder "goodbad", we see games where "it's a shame someone had to lose (or win)".
Overnight, eminence improved by .35 and gained a spot; eWins by only .17 lost a spot.
update Jan. 2
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.14 7.94 pewb 6.66 8.42
cali 6.27 7.92 vegas 6.89 8.03
emin 6.37 8.00 dtka 6.96 8.95
avgA 6.42 7.83 bpmW 6.99 8.54
5.38 6.47 8.40 eWin 7.00 8.85
21re 6.49 7.83 WShr 7.01 8.63
shad 6.50 7.91 2021 7.05 9.05
trzu 6.58 8.23 perW 7.30 9.13
lisp 6.62 8.25
I've stopped "de-regressing" the b-r.com projections; so these errors are relative to :
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Thanks for the update.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
A little shakeup:
Update Jan. 13
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
Crow 6.36 8.20 lisp 6.88 8.38
emin 6.38 8.16 pewb 6.90 8.70
cali 6.51 7.98 dtka 7.02 8.99
trzu 6.61 8.23 vegas 7.16 8.19
5.38 6.68 8.55 eWin 7.18 9.06
avgA 6.69 8.00 bpmW 7.20 8.78
shad 6.77 8.00 WShr 7.29 8.94
21re 6.84 8.27 2021 7.38 9.49
. perW 7.66 9.36
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.54 8.36 pewb 7.02 8.86
Crow 6.54 8.43 21re 7.03 8.35
cali 6.59 8.18 vegas 7.08 8.28
5.38 6.64 8.64 dtka 7.17 9.16
avgA 6.66 8.19 eWin 7.32 9.27
emin 6.67 8.42 bpmW 7.36 8.94
shad 6.70 8.11 WShr 7.48 9.10
lisp 6.84 8.44 2021 7.72 9.56
. perW 7.89 9.54
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
seems like your best update of the season
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
yeah well you can pick your favorite exponent. One is a solid bet, and Two is also popular.
In the ultra-trivial arena, trzu leads in an unprecedented 3 distinct exponents:That's a lot of different "leaders."
Update Jan. 20
Update Jan. 24
special update Jan. 26 -- b-r.com page has not updated (I wrote them about it) so I've entered SRS and current W-L, applying SRS to future G, to find no real change in the order.Overall errors are the best since mid Dec.
And then last night (1-27) and none of the 10 games turned out favorably for most of us. Everyone's error jumped by .32 to .57; almost no change in the order.You could say the average entry was 5-15 (W-L) on the night, though you may have done better or even worse.
Update Feb 2 (first of many?)trzu has consolidated the lead, from exponents 0.73 to 2.15. Below that it's Crow, and higher is shad.
Update Feb 3Shakeup due to wins by Orl, Hou, Bos, OKC, and Utah. Losses by Dal, Den, Phl also in the mix.
In the ultra-trivial arena, trzu leads in an unprecedented 3 distinct exponents:
Code: Select all
e=0.20 e=0.44 e=1.40
trzu 4.64 5.38 5.42 cali 7.20
pewb 4.72 trzu 5.43 shad 7.24
5.38 4.84 pewb 5.48 avgA 7.25
e=0.32 e=1.00 e=2.00
pewb 5.107 trzu 6.55 shad 8.08
trzu 5.111 Crow 6.57 cali 8.11
5.38 5.130 emin 6.61 avgA 8.12
e=0.35 e=1.15 e=3.00
trzu 5.200 Crow 6.82 21re 9.30
pewb 5.201 trzu 6.83 avgA 9.57
5.38 5.202 cali 6.83 shad 9.60
Update Jan. 20
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
cali 6.42 7.99 pewb 6.84 8.66
trzu 6.48 8.20 21re 6.87 8.14
avgA 6.48 8.04 vegas 6.91 8.16
emin 6.50 8.39 dtka 6.98 9.02
shad 6.54 8.02 bpmW 7.10 8.75
Crow 6.54 8.41 eWin 7.26 9.09
5.38 6.68 8.48 WShr 7.33 8.88
lisp 6.76 8.37 2021 7.68 9.43
. perW 7.72 9.38Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.12 7.86 pewb 6.64 8.40
cali 6.14 7.74 dtka 6.66 8.66
shad 6.17 7.68 21re 6.75 7.96
avgA 6.20 7.74 bpmW 6.85 8.50
Crow 6.27 8.14 eWin 7.04 8.89
emin 6.29 8.10 WShr 7.05 8.62
5.38 6.35 8.14 2021 7.41 9.20
lisp 6.43 8.05 perW 7.45 9.13
vegas 6.51 7.85
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 5.98 7.66 pewb 6.52 8.26
cali 6.01 7.63 dtka 6.54 8.53
shad 6.04 7.51 21re 6.68 7.90
avgA 6.07 7.58 bpmW 6.72 8.31
Crow 6.11 8.00 WShr 6.88 8.47
emin 6.14 7.81 eWin 6.90 8.85
5.38 6.21 8.00 2021 7.25 8.97
lisp 6.32 7.88 perW 7.32 9.05
vegas 6.38 7.70
And then last night (1-27) and none of the 10 games turned out favorably for most of us. Everyone's error jumped by .32 to .57; almost no change in the order.
Code: Select all
bad/bad good/bad
Cle>Mil LAC>Orl
Cha>Ind Atl>Sac
Mia>NYK Den>Brk
Mem>SAS Chi>Tor
Phx>Uta Dal>Por
Update Feb 2 (first of many?)
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.47 8.20 dtka 6.97 9.03
cali 6.57 8.30 pewb 7.01 9.03
avgA 6.61 8.31 lisp 7.02 8.59
shad 6.62 8.23 bpmW 7.12 9.07
Crow 6.64 8.67 21re 7.12 8.49
5.38 6.78 8.56 eWin 7.56 9.46
emin 6.79 8.67 WShr 7.61 9.21
vegas 6.90 8.39 2021 7.92 9.66
. perW 8.05 9.72Update Feb 3
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
cali 6.60 8.28 pewb 7.01 8.97
trzu 6.60 8.21 21re 7.02 8.34
shad 6.66 8.21 bpmW 7.05 9.03
avgA 6.66 8.26 dtka 7.08 9.01
Crow 6.80 8.61 eWin 7.47 9.33
5.38 6.84 8.56 WShr 7.63 9.20
vegas 6.94 8.34 perW 7.96 9.60
emin 6.98 8.67 2021 8.01 9.65
lisp 6.99 8.57
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Got any of them updates? I'd like one on a fresh piece of post.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
The order hardly changes at all, though we all get worse by the day.
On Dec. 9 the worst error was 6.76. This was with <10% regression to the mean.
With few exceptions, over-performing teams keep overing; some unders are just disintegrating.These are differences between projected wins and the average of our guesses.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.93 8.64 vegas 7.32 8.97
cali 6.98 8.75 pewb 7.53 9.68
shad 6.98 8.74 bpmW 7.71 9.76
Crow 7.03 8.99 21re 7.84 9.07
avgA 7.06 8.80 WShr 8.05 9.69
emin 7.07 9.07 eWin 8.18 10.02
5.38 7.11 8.96 2021 8.32 10.20
dtka 7.23 9.31 perW 8.61 10.27
lisp 7.27 9.04 With few exceptions, over-performing teams keep overing; some unders are just disintegrating.
Code: Select all
over tm under tm
23.3 Cle -13.0 Por
15.2 GSW -10.7 Ind
14.0 Phx -10.6 LAL
13.7 Mem -10.1 Brk
9.4 Tor -9.9 Atl
7.2 Mia -9.2 Det
7.1 Min -8.2 NOP
5.3 Cha -7.0 NYK
4.8 Chi -6.6 Sac
2.3 OKC -5.1 Mil
1.8 Bos -4.0 Hou
1.6 Was -3.1 LAC
0.2 Dal -2.9 Phl
. -2.5 Orl
. -1.2 Uta
. -1.0 SAS
. -0.8 Den
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Thanks.
Cut my margin from the lead in half and moved up a spot. Not much but something.
Cut my margin from the lead in half and moved up a spot. Not much but something.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
At the allstar break:
UPDATE Mar. 1
Not much change in the ordering, but a steady increase in the top-to-bottom difference. The best avg error is now 2.14 better than the worst. That differential has grown by 50% in the last 24 days. On Jan. 14, the diff. was just 1.20
The bottom has dropped out for some of us!
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.76 8.32 lisp 7.20 8.76
cali 6.78 8.46 pewb 7.35 9.46
shad 6.83 8.46 21re 7.56 8.84
Crow 6.89 8.75 bpmW 7.60 9.53
emin 6.91 8.76 WShr 7.87 9.48
5.38 6.94 8.65 eWin 8.09 9.88
avgA 6.95 8.54 2021 8.10 9.85
dtka 7.10 9.03 perW 8.63 10.12
vegas 7.14 8.74
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.56 8.18 vegas 7.01 8.64
cali 6.58 8.34 lisp 7.07 8.66
shad 6.66 8.38 pewb 7.16 9.40
5.38 6.70 8.44 21re 7.58 8.72
emin 6.72 8.70 bpmW 7.59 9.51
avgA 6.79 8.44 WShr 7.65 9.31
Crow 6.88 8.65 2021 7.86 9.74
dtka 6.93 8.86 eWin 8.11 9.79
. perW 8.70 10.07
The bottom has dropped out for some of us!
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
A couple had a strong week. Still enough weeks left to catch maybe, but it will be harder.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
trzu pulls away, maybe
This is the largest separation between 1 and 2 that we've had since Jan. 8 (Crow > cali)
Update Mar. 4
Update Mar. 13:Lead by trzu is largest since Nov. when 21re was dominating.
Update Mar. 19:
Top-to-bottom difference is more than twice what it was in mid-Jan.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.61 8.17 lisp 7.08 8.64
cali 6.72 8.40 vegas 7.10 8.69
shad 6.74 8.40 pewb 7.24 9.46
5.38 6.80 8.40 bpmW 7.63 9.56
avgA 6.87 8.47 21re 7.66 8.77
emin 6.88 8.78 WShr 7.77 9.37
dtka 6.96 8.80 2021 7.97 9.78
Crow 6.98 8.68 eWin 8.20 9.83
. perW 8.79 10.13
Update Mar. 4
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.46 8.07 vegas 6.98 8.61
shad 6.63 8.31 pewb 7.22 9.36
cali 6.64 8.31 21re 7.59 8.67
5.38 6.70 8.29 bpmW 7.60 9.49
avgA 6.84 8.38 WShr 7.70 9.26
emin 6.85 8.73 2021 7.89 9.69
dtka 6.87 8.70 eWin 8.17 9.75
Crow 6.92 8.59 perW 8.77 10.05
lisp 6.93 8.53
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.36 7.92 lisp 6.99 8.42
cali 6.64 8.16 pewb 7.24 9.23
shad 6.64 8.22 bpmW 7.43 9.38
5.38 6.69 8.24 21re 7.68 8.64
avgA 6.76 8.29 WShr 7.71 9.25
vegas 6.76 8.48 2021 7.95 9.78
dtka 6.82 8.60 eWin 8.16 9.63
emin 6.94 8.80 perW 8.65 9.93
Crow 6.94 8.59
Update Mar. 19:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.44 8.02 Crow 7.03 8.71
shad 6.65 8.34 lisp 7.08 8.54
cali 6.68 8.29 pewb 7.38 9.42
vegas 6.78 8.64 bpmW 7.63 9.60
5.38 6.81 8.34 WShr 7.81 9.38
emin 6.85 8.86 21re 8.04 8.98
avgA 6.92 8.45 2021 8.08 9.92
dtka 6.97 8.69 eWin 8.45 9.89
. perW 8.91 10.19