Rookies 2023

[Crow]

On average of these 3 metrics, Kessler is highest.

Nobody in draft twitter compilations were higher on him than I was at 9th. Average rank on one survey that included prominent media was 25th. 94 self reporting from Twitter, the average was 39th. ESPN /Draft Express put him at 23rd and Vecenie ended up at 25th. (Some analytic models rated him as high I did and even higher on a couple.)

Same basic story with Eason. Nobody seen anywhere on twitter higher than my 3rd place ranking and almost nobody anywhere close.

[Mike G]

Comparison of Kessler's first 31 games and Rudy Gobert's first 31 games of his 2nd season (2014-15, age 22)

Code: Select all

player   G  GS   mpg   TS%  eFG%  ORb%  TRb%   Ast%  Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%   ORt  DRt  GmSc
Gobert  31  2   18.7  .648  .619  15.2  20.4   7.5   1.6   7.6   18.2   13.5   122  104   7.4
Kessler 31  4   17.7  .731  .754  14.2  19.0   4.8    .6   8.6   13.0   12.4   140  110   7.9

Gobert would go on to start 37 games for the Jazz that year; replacing Enes Kanter.

[Crow]

Interesting.

Kessler was a huge piece in the Jazz trade haul. Certainly looking like Connelly way overpaid, at least by EPM where he is 72nd best. DRIP and DARKO projections are still much much higher, lagged to the change. DARKO has been going down slightly for 2.4 seasons though his rate of change has broken down thru the general trendline this season.

[Crow]

Banchero's efg% is still less than 49%, is 13th on team and is only .016 above the worst on team. But 2nd on team for fgas and 50% above 3rd.

[Mike G]

And he leads the team in FTA/G by a wide margin, so he's not much below the team or league avg TS% -- and improving:

Code: Select all

mo.   G   Usg%   3fg%   FT%   TS%   ORt  DRt  As/G
Oct   7   31.2   .290  .733  .539   109  112   3.9
Nov   8   28.3   .250  .731  .560   105  123   3.4
Dec  12   26.9   .370  .780  .564   111  112   4.4

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... plits/2023
Not sure why he was taking so many shots in the early weeks; perhaps because of other guys missing games?

[Mike G]

Season at 48% and rookies total 50 projected eWins.
Including all with >200 minutes:

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.4  Paolo Banchero  Orl  1096  .534   19.3   7.5   3.4   1.0   3.1   .6  1.32
4.2   Be. Mathurin   Ind  1120  .549   18.9   4.8   1.5    .8   2.3   .1   .88
3.8  Walker Kessler  Uta   712  .694   12.4  12.1    .9    .5   1.2  3.4  1.29
3.4   Jalen Duren    Det   951  .624    9.9  12.5   1.1    .8   1.7  1.0   .89
3.3   Tari Eason     Hou   734  .507   12.0  10.0   1.3   1.9   1.8   .9  1.02

3.2   Jabari Smith   Hou  1131  .504   11.5   8.6    .9    .6   1.6  1.1   .64
3.2   Jaden Ivey     Det  1134  .505   14.3   4.9   4.0   1.1   3.3   .3   .68
2.8  Jalen Williams  OKC   971  .572   13.3   4.6   2.9   1.2   2.1   .6   .65
2.1   Keegan Murray  Sac  1007  .551   11.9   5.0    .8   1.1   1.3   .8   .46
2.1   AJ Griffin     Atl   746  .567   14.3   3.6   1.3   1.7   1.3   .2   .63

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.6   Jeremy Sochan  SAS   833  .500    9.4   6.9   2.5   1.2   2.4   .8   .43
1.5  Andrew Nembhard Ind   943  .571    9.5   4.2   4.0   1.2   2.0   .3   .38
1.1  Shaedon Sharpe  Por   727  .544   12.1   4.8    .7    .7   1.2   .3   .34
1.1   Dyson Daniels  NOP   556  .543    7.4   6.4   3.4   1.4   1.6   .4   .44
.9  Christian Koloko Tor   576  .525    7.0   7.6    .8    .6   1.0  2.7   .34

.8   Mark Williams   Cha   133  .608   14.3  14.7   1.0   1.7   2.8  1.5  1.47
.7  Orlando Robinson Mia   172  .573   11.6   9.5   2.1   1.4   1.4  1.0  1.00
.7  MarJon Beauchamp Mil   436  .525   12.5   5.6   1.2   1.1   2.4   .2   .37
.6   David Roddy     Mem   673  .486   10.1   4.8   1.1    .7   1.5   .6   .20
.6   A.J. Green      Mil   150  .676   16.8   4.3   1.5    .8    .9   .0   .85

e82    per36 rates    tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.6  Patrick Baldwin  GSW   101  .622   18.7   6.3    .8   2.2   1.7   .3  1.26
.5   Nikola Jović    Mia   204  .522   12.3   5.6   1.5   1.2   1.7   .3   .52
.4  Kennedy Chandler Mem   176  .431    8.1   4.8   5.8   1.6   2.7  1.0   .56
.3   Ousmane Dieng   OKC   220  .500    7.7   6.0   2.5    .8   1.1   .6   .34
.2   Kevon Harris    Orl   328  .542    8.6   5.6   1.0   1.3   1.7   .3   .17

.2   Jake LaRavia    Mem   331  .556    8.0   5.4   1.5   1.0   1.6   .3   .12
.1   Malaki Branham  SAS   478  .513    9.7   3.2   2.2    .8   1.9   .2   .07
.1   Max Christie    LAL   261  .516    6.9   5.7   1.3    .4    .9   .4   .05
.0   Caleb Houstan   Orl   484  .553    7.3   5.0   1.0    .4    .7   .2  -.01
.0  Christian Braun  Den   506  .510    6.8   5.1   1.0    .6    .9   .5  -.02

[Crow]

On DARKO projection:

Jaylin Williams, 66th of 66th.

Sochan, 63rd, Ivey 62, J Smith 61. Sharpe about 42.

[Crow]

Banchero,

+0.8 on EPM
-1.6 on Raptor
-0.7 on DRIP
-0.5 on DARKO

Average of EPM and Raptor current estimates is about the same as the two projections- slightly negative.

[Mike G]

I wonder why a below-avg player gets 34 mpg; and notice the Magic have 11 players who go 20+ mpg, but only 3 have played in 40 of their 45 games; another 3 have played in at least 30. The rest have missed major chunks of the season.

Their injury list is short now, so he's playing a bit less, a bit more efficiently it seems.
At ESPN, his RPM among power forwards ranks #13 at 1.95 -- most of this is defensive value, they say.
His Wins there rank just above Draymond and Zion.
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/ ... position/6

[Crow]

Neutral on these or other metrics puts a player comfortably above the median player. Small negative is near average.

Ryan Davis RAPM has Banchero at -1.1. Luck adjusted at -0.8.

BPM at -0.4.

RPM and Raptor are the outliers.

These metrics may not clarify for all. But this far into the survey, it is 2 positive, 6 negative.

If one is ok using an average of all, it is slight negative (with at least a moderate error band).

Can think what want. This is not unusual. Example Fwiw.

[Crow]

Raw plus minus has issues / limitations but it is the only thing that matters for game result. It is more meaningful within a team than across teams.

Banchero's raw team +/- is -5.1 pts / 100p, about 1/3rd worse than team average and 9th overall (0.3 from being 11th). It is 6th of 7 minute leaders. His on / off is 11th at -3.5.

[Mike G]

At 59% of the season, rookies total 51.3 projected eWins.

Code: Select all

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
6.3  Paolo Banchero  Orl  .540   19.1   7.1   3.3   1.1   3.0   .5  1.28
4.5  Walker Kessler  Uta  .681   12.9  12.8   1.1    .6   1.3  3.3  1.38
4.2   Be. Mathurin   Ind  .547   18.6   5.0   1.4    .7   2.2   .1   .87
3.5   Jalen Duren    Det  .638   10.5  12.8   1.1    .9   1.7  1.1   .99
3.3   Tari Eason     Hou  .516   12.0   9.9   1.4   1.9   1.8  1.1  1.01

3.1  Jalen Williams  OKC  .569   13.2   4.8   2.9   1.4   1.9   .7   .70
3.1   Keegan Murray  Sac  .598   13.5   5.5   1.0   1.0   1.1   .7   .65
3.1   Jabari Smith   Hou  .496   11.4   8.5   1.0    .6   1.6  1.1   .64
3.0   Jaden Ivey     Det  .505   14.0   5.0   4.2   1.1   3.4   .3   .63
2.3   AJ Griffin     Atl  .602   14.9   3.6   1.4   1.4   1.1   .2   .69

e82    per36 rates    tm   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.8   Jeremy Sochan  SAS  .508   10.0   7.0   2.5   1.2   2.4   .6   .46
1.4   Mark Williams  Cha  .630   16.1  13.1    .5   1.7   2.0  2.3  1.63
1.3  Andrew Nembhard Ind  .528    9.2   3.9   4.4   1.3   2.2   .3   .33
1.0 Orlando Robinson Mia  .577   10.1  10.7   1.7   1.2   1.2   .9   .92
1.0  Shaedon Sharpe  Por  .546   11.8   4.6    .8    .6   1.2   .3   .29

.9   Dyson Daniels   NOP  .519    6.8   6.5   3.6   1.4   1.9   .5   .34
.8  Christian Koloko Tor  .526    7.3   7.9    .9    .5   1.0  2.5   .39
.6  MarJon Beauchamp Mil  .509   12.0   5.4   1.3   1.0   2.3   .1   .33
.5   David Roddy     Mem  .491   10.1   5.0   1.1    .8   1.6   .6   .21
.5   A.J. Green      Mil  .616   16.0   3.9   1.4    .7   1.1   .0   .68

[Mike G]

On DARKO projection:

Jaylin Williams, 66th of 66th.

Sochan, 63rd, Ivey 62, J Smith 61. Sharpe about 42.

Does this mean the named players "project" to be worse somehow than others with 5 or 10 minutes all year? Weaker than several who have yet to score a point or get a rebound?
Or are you advocating that we should shun DARKO, if it's really this bad at ranking players?

[Crow]

The projections were as reported.

Do I think DARKO projections are strong or always strong early? I don't know without further research. Probably not always good. Their projections will get better with time & play.

But how good or bad are they early compared to other estimates or preceding expectations? Starts with watching, then the observer can opine when and how they want to. I am not moved to at the moment but maybe sometime.

[Crow]

Jaylin Williams still last on current Darko projection at 67. Sochan, Smith and Ivey, all still in 60s. Sharpe has fallen to 59th.

I would expect most or all to eventually improve but I expect several will stay below or far below draft rank and mock consensus.

I was below consensus on my big board for the latter 4. Smith only by a few places but those places are very important. Way lower on the other 3. (Higher on Williams.) My stance on these players is mostly about my evaluations but that DARKO agrees so far on 4 is worth knowing and worth something to me. We both may be wrong but we may also be more right than others. I dunno if I'll check at end of season or in future seasons but helps to have a mention down.