2022-23 team win projection contest
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Thanks for the performance updates.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
yrwelcome. Updates will be edits to this post for a while.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.htmlThe avg. error is close to the lowest of the season.
UPDATE Dec. 28 -- major shuffling overnight.
UPdate as of Jan.2 -- smallest errors in a while:
UPDATE Jan.6
UPDATE Jan.12
Pelton has lost ~40% of his lead in a week; and the top-to-bottom difference is smallest in 4 weeks.
UPDATE Jan. 19
The sharp gap has disappeared, between top half and bottom half.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.57 5.84 .53 538R 6.35 7.59 .47
DRKO 5.10 6.41 .52 538E 6.47 8.58 .28
Crow 5.40 6.77 .56 TmRk 6.53 8.02 .43
dtka 5.41 6.48 .56 MPra 6.60 8.23 .51
ncs. 5.46 6.58 .50 vegas 6.60 8.13 .43
trzu 5.47 6.88 .56 BIPM 6.62 7.69 .63
EBPI 5.65 6.98 .48 nuFi 6.69 8.43 .40
avg. 5.66 6.68 .53 4141 6.72 8.40
LEBR 5.77 6.70 .50 AnBa 7.39 8.58 .44
22Re 5.86 7.12 .30 EExp 7.59 8.93 .36
vzro 5.99 7.06 .44 2022 8.06 9.78 .30
emin 5.99 7.45 .46
UPDATE Dec. 28 -- major shuffling overnight.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.45 5.87 .54 BIPM 6.41 7.57 .65
DRKO 5.17 6.45 .52 538R 6.41 7.63 .46
ncs. 5.34 6.60 .50 TmRk 6.42 7.98 .43
dtka 5.35 6.51 .56 vegas 6.48 8.10 .44
trzu 5.37 6.96 .55 nuFi 6.56 8.30 .41
Crow 5.46 6.90 .54 538E 6.58 8.65 .27
avg. 5.52 6.67 .53 MPra 6.69 8.33 .50
EBPI 5.57 6.97 .48 4141 6.76 8.46
LEBR 5.71 6.68 .51 AnBa 7.28 8.54 .44
22Re 5.81 7.17 .30 EExp 7.63 8.88 .37
vzro 5.84 6.96 .45 2022 8.18 9.78 .30
emin 5.86 7.36 .47
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.29 5.65 .55 BIPM 6.15 7.33 .67
ncs. 5.25 6.40 .52 538R 6.35 7.49 .48
dtka 5.26 6.39 .57 TmRk 6.44 7.88 .44
EBPI 5.40 6.79 .50 nuFi 6.49 8.05 .44
Crow 5.42 6.91 .54 vegas 6.51 8.02 .44
DRKO 5.43 6.40 .52 4141 6.57 8.39
avg. 5.47 6.52 .54 538E 6.60 8.45 .29
LEBR 5.48 6.58 .51 MPra 6.96 8.39 .49
trzu 5.56 6.99 .55 AnBa 7.08 8.36 .46
vzro 5.68 6.71 .48 EExp 7.55 8.77 .38
22Re 5.78 6.96 .31 2022 8.16 9.69 .31
emin 5.88 7.28 .48
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.53 5.90 .53 22Re 6.10 7.23 .29
dtka 5.41 6.41 .57 BIPM 6.45 7.60 .64
avg. 5.43 6.43 .55 TmRk 6.50 8.01 .43
LEBR 5.49 6.67 .51 4141 6.56 8.48
ncs. 5.55 6.65 .50 vegas 6.57 8.13 .43
Crow 5.61 7.09 .52 538R 6.60 7.66 .46
EBPI 5.68 6.99 .48 nuFi 6.84 8.22 .42
DRKO 5.69 6.57 .50 MPra 6.87 8.31 .50
trzu 5.73 7.13 .53 538E 7.02 8.70 .27
vzro 5.89 6.85 .47 AnBa 7.08 8.44 .45
emin 5.99 7.35 .48 EExp 7.57 8.92 .36
Pelton has lost ~40% of his lead in a week; and the top-to-bottom difference is smallest in 4 weeks.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.89 6.03 .52 22Re 6.34 7.41 .28
dtka 5.52 6.57 .56 BIPM 6.41 7.65 .63
LEBR 5.52 6.73 .50 4141 6.55 8.60
avgA 5.55 6.59 .53 538R 6.56 7.74 .45
ncs. 5.67 6.73 .49 vegas 6.60 8.33 .41
Crow 5.70 7.21 .51 TmRk 6.61 8.20 .41
DRKO 5.85 6.74 .49 MPra 6.82 8.44 .48
trzu 5.87 7.34 .51 nuFi 6.90 8.35 .41
EBPI 5.91 7.22 .45 AnBa 7.16 8.66 .43
emin 6.01 7.54 .46 538E 7.37 8.84 .26
vzro 6.09 6.97 .46 EExp 7.57 9.09 .35
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.98 6.46 .49 538R 6.31 7.75 .46
dtka 5.54 6.68 .55 22Re 6.47 7.64 .28
avgA 5.74 6.84 .52 4141 6.61 8.94
LEBR 5.77 6.92 .49 BIPM 6.64 8.01 .59
ncs. 5.83 7.15 .45 MPra 6.76 8.46 .48
Crow 5.84 7.33 .50 vegas 6.82 8.58 .39
trzu 5.93 7.54 .49 TmRk 6.88 8.50 .39
DRKO 5.94 7.10 .46 nuFi 7.03 8.65 .39
EBPI 5.95 7.48 .44 AnBa 7.23 8.89 .41
vzro 6.06 7.17 .45 538E 7.44 8.97 .26
emin 6.25 7.87 .43 EExp 7.63 9.14 .35
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Up a couple of tenths, down a couple of tenths. Will need to climb again, hopefully higher. Lots of games left.
Tough competition. 1 win error on average from top is pretty good.
Tough competition. 1 win error on average from top is pretty good.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
.2 from contest lead at last check. What will next update show?
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Update (see a few posts above) puts me 0.02 closer to contest lead. Not much change there but slightly better.
Pack beginning to close gap to Kevin P is the notable change I've been anticipating.
Pack beginning to close gap to Kevin P is the notable change I've been anticipating.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Smallest Pelton lead in more than a month.
I gained against 1st overall, 3rd, 4th and 5th but lost .12 against contest leader / 2nd dtka.
ESPN experts in last for 2.5 weeks.
Might be one of the worst Vegas line relative performances.
I gained against 1st overall, 3rd, 4th and 5th but lost .12 against contest leader / 2nd dtka.
ESPN experts in last for 2.5 weeks.
Might be one of the worst Vegas line relative performances.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Everyone had a good night, but for Pelton and Crow.
EExp out of the cellar!
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.98 6.36 .50 538R 6.13 7.63 .48
dtka 5.36 6.48 .57 22Re 6.34 7.55 .29
avgA 5.55 6.66 .54 BIPM 6.46 7.80 .61
ncs. 5.60 7.00 .47 MPra 6.47 8.21 .51
LEBR 5.63 6.77 .51 4141 6.47 8.93
Crow 5.77 7.16 .52 vegas 6.57 8.32 .42
DRKO 5.78 6.88 .49 TmRk 6.60 8.26 .41
EBPI 5.79 7.25 .46 nuFi 6.84 8.48 .40
trzu 5.85 7.35 .51 AnBa 6.98 8.64 .44
vzro 5.87 7.07 .46 EExp 7.37 8.91 .38
emin 6.07 7.67 .45 538E 7.38 8.89 .27Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
I improved by +.07. Not as much as others but still improved. Pelton, no change and edge on 2nd cut by another 1/3rd in 2 days.
On r2, I am 4th. Pelton 7th.
On r2, I am 4th. Pelton 7th.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Pelton is the leader from exponent between 0.19 and 2.5, and his max separation from anyone else is right at 1.0
Crow's biggest error is with OKC -- off by 15.5 at this point. This is also tied for the smallest error on OKC, and is the least bad worst error by any entry. (Separation actually gets larger with higher e, so e=20 is just arbitrary.)
Best hopes to catch Kevin: continuing fade by Ind; also Por, Orl, Uta (less likely); sustained resurgence by GSW; also Mia, LAC, Dal, Phx, Min (long way off).
Right now, gains are made when Phl, LAL, or Dal win; with loss by Was. For most or all entries (YMMV).
Code: Select all
. e= 0.1 e= 1.0 e= 3.3
dtka 3.54 KPel 4.87 dtka 7.56
ncs. 3.60 dtka 5.17 KPel 7.71
KPel 3.62 avgA 5.39 LEBR 7.71
. e= 7.9 e= 20.0
LEBR 10.41 Crow 13.12
dtka 10.82 LEBR 13.25
Crow 10.83 KPel 13.47
Best hopes to catch Kevin: continuing fade by Ind; also Por, Orl, Uta (less likely); sustained resurgence by GSW; also Mia, LAC, Dal, Phx, Min (long way off).
Right now, gains are made when Phl, LAL, or Dal win; with loss by Was. For most or all entries (YMMV).
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
A lot still be determined for OKC and everyone else, of course.
I probably was / am too hard on OKC, especially in short run. I knew a 30 plus win season was possible, just seemed less likely they'd push for that.
I probably was / am too hard on OKC, especially in short run. I knew a 30 plus win season was possible, just seemed less likely they'd push for that.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Immense improvements overnight.
vzro error shrank by .43, and he went up 2 slots.
EBPI only improved by .22, so they dropped 3 places!
KPel had the highest guess for Ind (38) and lowest for GSW (42). Both teams are approaching those projections, going opposite directions. If Pacers end up at 35 wins and Dubs at 45, Kevin's lead is gone (all else being equal).
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.63 6.06 .52 22Re 6.03 7.21 .32
dtka 5.02 6.14 .61 4141 6.08 8.66
avgA 5.21 6.32 .57 MPra 6.17 7.80 .56
ncs. 5.41 6.69 .50 vegas 6.30 8.03 .45
LEBR 5.42 6.38 .55 BIPM 6.37 7.75 .62
vzro 5.43 6.73 .49 TmRk 6.39 7.97 .44
Crow 5.45 6.85 .55 AnBa 6.55 8.32 .47
EBPI 5.47 7.08 .47 nuFi 6.68 8.27 .42
DRKO 5.53 6.62 .51 EExp 6.98 8.55 .41
trzu 5.61 7.02 .55 538E 7.04 8.75 .27
emin 5.81 7.41 .47 2022 7.89 9.68 .32
538R 5.83 7.48 .49
EBPI only improved by .22, so they dropped 3 places!
KPel had the highest guess for Ind (38) and lowest for GSW (42). Both teams are approaching those projections, going opposite directions. If Pacers end up at 35 wins and Dubs at 45, Kevin's lead is gone (all else being equal).
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Mixed relative change for me. Best I can say is .32 improvement and I am just .04 from tied for 4th, down from .17 a few days ago.
DARKO improves but by less than others higher. Falls to 9th place.
DARKO improves but by less than others higher. Falls to 9th place.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Code: Select all
Atl w Bos w Brk w Cha w Chi w Cle w Det w Ind w
dt 50 vz 58 em 51 KP 41 nc 41 em 50 vz 31 b-r 38
tr 48 tr 57 b-r 48 vz 39 cr 40 b-r 50 nc 27 KP 38
cr 47 nc 57 nc 47 dt 33 b-r 40 tr 48 em 27 nc 34
KP 46 em 56 tr 47 nc 32 KP 38 vz 48 KP 26 em 33
nc 45 b-r 55 KP 46 em 32 dt 38 cr 47 b-r 24 vz 32
vz 44 dt 55 dt 44 tr 32 tr 38 dt 46 dt 24 dt 31
em 44 KP 54 cr 44 cr 30 vz 37 KP 43 tr 24 tr 28
b-r 41 cr 53 vz 42 b-r 25 em 35 nc 43 cr 23 cr 28
Mia w Mil w NYK w Orl w Phl w Tor w Was w
nc 51 em 55 b-r 44 b-r 33 tr 54 cr 52 vz 40
tr 50 dt 52 cr 44 KP 31 dt 53 tr 50 KP 40
cr 50 vz 52 vz 43 em 28 em 52 nc 49 b-r 39
vz 49 tr 50 nc 43 tr 28 nc 52 dt 48 dt 38
em 48 b-r 50 dt 43 cr 28 vz 51 KP 47 nc 37
dt 47 KP 50 tr 42 nc 28 cr 51 vz 44 em 34
KP 46 cr 49 KP 42 dt 26 b-r 51 em 40 tr 33
b-r 44 nc 48 em 36 vz 26 KP 48 b-r 39 cr 30
Dal w Den w GSW w Hou w LAC w LAL w Mem w Min w
nc 47 b-r 54 em 52 nc 27 cr 51 dt 43 cr 52 em 53
tr 47 cr 53 cr 51 cr 27 em 49 vz 43 b-r 51 tr 50
vz 46 em 51 tr 50 KP 27 tr 49 em 42 dt 50 dt 49
dt 46 dt 49 dt 47 em 24 vz 45 nc 39 tr 48 cr 47
cr 46 tr 49 vz 47 tr 23 nc 45 b-r 38 nc 47 nc 47
em 44 vz 48 nc 44 b-r 21 dt 45 tr 37 em 47 KP 46
KP 43 KP 48 KP 42 dt 20 KP 44 KP 37 vz 47 vz 45
b-r 43 nc 47 b-r 41 vz 18 b-r 41 cr 35 KP 46 b-r 41
NOP w OKC w Phx w Por w Sac w SAS w Uta w
cr 49 b-r 43 nc 54 b-r 40 b-r 47 vz 33 b-r 41
tr 48 cr 27 tr 52 em 40 cr 39 KP 31 vz 39
KP 48 KP 27 vz 51 tr 37 tr 37 em 31 KP 35
nc 46 dt 26 em 50 KP 37 dt 37 nc 31 nc 35
dt 46 vz 26 dt 50 dt 36 nc 37 dt 26 dt 32
b-r 44 nc 25 cr 50 vz 33 KP 37 cr 25 cr 29
vz 44 tr 24 KP 49 cr 33 vz 32 tr 25 tr 29
em 43 em 23 b-r 42 nc 28 em 32 b-r 23 em 28
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
That'll be useful to watch. Thanks.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Lowest errors of the season for emin, 538R, nuFi; recently too for EBPI, Crow, vegas, TmRk, AnBa, EExp.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
KPel 4.58 6.01 .53 538R 5.77 7.36 .50
dtka 4.96 6.08 .61 22Re 5.92 7.08 .34
avgA 5.15 6.22 .58 vegas 6.04 7.80 .48
vzro 5.30 6.61 .51 TmRk 6.09 7.71 .47
LEBR 5.41 6.42 .54 MPra 6.13 7.71 .57
EBPI 5.44 6.88 .50 BIPM 6.16 7.56 .64
ncs. 5.49 6.65 .50 4141 6.18 8.68
emin 5.52 7.16 .50 AnBa 6.30 8.03 .50
DRKO 5.54 6.52 .52 nuFi 6.40 7.98 .46
Crow 5.55 6.86 .55 EExp 6.85 8.38 .43
trzu 5.60 6.93 .56 538E 7.00 8.61 .29