2022-23 team win projection contest
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nbacouchside
- Posts: 151
- Joined: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:58 am
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Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
I've been tumbling down the standings all year. Better luck next year, I guess, lol
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Standings, schmandings.
On Jan. 5, you were in 2nd place but 1.01 out of the lead. You're now 0.74 out of the lead.
On Jan. 5, you were in 2nd place but 1.01 out of the lead. You're now 0.74 out of the lead.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
At the break:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
Current 'standings' as projected ^^ to the end:"over" is the difference between "projected" and the avg of 6 APBR entries.
UPDATE Feb.27
UPDATE Mar.01
Pelton goes 4-0 -- losses by Dal, LAL; wins by Ind, Was -- to get back in it.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.89 6.00 .64 538R 5.89 7.56 .50
KPel 4.93 6.35 .55 BIPM 6.16 7.33 .66
vzro 5.21 6.66 .54 AnBa 6.32 7.94 .52
avgA 5.24 6.23 .60 vegas 6.40 7.68 .51
emin 5.45 7.14 .53 TmRk 6.45 7.64 .50
LEBR 5.54 6.37 .58 22Re 6.48 7.74 .33
DRKO 5.60 6.68 .54 nuFi 6.54 8.11 .46
trzu 5.63 6.82 .59 4141 6.71 9.43
EBPI 5.64 7.18 .50 EExp 6.99 8.28 .46
ncs. 5.68 6.90 .51 538E 7.31 9.01 .28
MPra 5.82 7.35 .61 2022 8.21 9.78 .33
Crow 5.85 6.82 .58
Current 'standings' as projected ^^ to the end:
Code: Select all
proj west over proj east over
54.8 Den 5.4 56.6 Bos 0.7
50.5 Mem 2.0 54.9 Mil 3.9
45.1 Sac 9.4 52.0 Phl -0.2
43.6 Phx -7.4 51.9 Cle 4.9
43.1 Dal -2.8 47.0 Brk 1.3
42.9 LAC -4.4 45.1 NYK 3.3
42.9 NOP -3.1 43.2 Mia -6.0
41.9 OKC 16.8 40.8 Was 5.5
41.1 GSW -7.3 40.0 Atl -6.3
41.1 Min -7.4 39.6 Tor -7.4
40.4 Uta 8.6 37.8 Chi -0.3
39.6 Por 5.2 35.8 Ind 4.8
37.9 LAL -1.9 34.1 Orl 6.9
19.9 Hou -3.4 24.5 Cha -8.5
19.5 SAS -8.9 22.6 Det -3.3
UPDATE Feb.27
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 5.03 5.96 .65 538R 5.98 7.51 .51
KPel 5.16 6.37 .56 MPra 5.99 7.46 .60
vzro 5.31 6.64 .55 BIPM 6.09 7.30 .66
avgA 5.37 6.30 .60 22Re 6.41 7.77 .34
LEBR 5.55 6.35 .59 AnBa 6.41 7.87 .53
emin 5.70 7.35 .51 vegas 6.56 7.78 .50
EBPI 5.74 7.11 .51 TmRk 6.59 7.73 .49
DRKO 5.76 6.76 .53 nuFi 6.63 8.09 .47
ncs. 5.81 6.96 .51 4141 6.65 9.55
trzu 5.91 6.92 .58 EExp 7.03 8.24 .47
Crow 5.97 6.88 .57 538E 7.48 9.04 .29
Pelton goes 4-0 -- losses by Dal, LAL; wins by Ind, Was -- to get back in it.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 5.06 5.92 .65 MPra 6.02 7.39 .60
KPel 5.08 6.28 .56 BIPM 6.11 7.35 .65
vzro 5.28 6.60 .55 22Re 6.40 7.72 .34
avgA 5.45 6.26 .60 AnBa 6.49 7.89 .53
LEBR 5.54 6.25 .60 4141 6.61 9.51
DRKO 5.84 6.73 .53 TmRk 6.66 7.75 .49
emin 5.85 7.31 .51 vegas 6.66 7.81 .50
EBPI 5.90 7.16 .50 nuFi 6.72 8.10 .46
538R 5.91 7.47 .51 EExp 7.03 8.21 .47
ncs. 5.91 6.91 .51 538E 7.48 8.97 .29
Crow 5.94 6.83 .58 2022 8.13 9.67 .34
trzu 5.96 6.89 .58 Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Every game counts and affects standings / contest but these results over last 10 games are probably the most notable:
Knicks and Raptors 8W-2L
Bulls and Nets 3-7
Mavs, Clippers, Pelicans 4-6
Knicks and Raptors 8W-2L
Bulls and Nets 3-7
Mavs, Clippers, Pelicans 4-6
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Actually, OKC could lose (or win) every remaining game and not change the contest standings. Nobody picked them to win over 27 games, and they've already won 28.
The Kings are similarly above the worst-case scenario seen at b-r.com's projection generator.
Other teams that, without major lineup changes, are very unlikely to matter: Cha, Mia, Min, Phx, SAS all well below anyone's guesses; NYK, Orl pretty safely above.
Suns do have a rather major lineup addition.
The Kings are similarly above the worst-case scenario seen at b-r.com's projection generator.
Other teams that, without major lineup changes, are very unlikely to matter: Cha, Mia, Min, Phx, SAS all well below anyone's guesses; NYK, Orl pretty safely above.
Suns do have a rather major lineup addition.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
You are right that certain teams will not affect relative standings. They will still affect absolute errors, fwiw.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 5.01 5.83 .67 BIPM 5.98 7.25 .66
vzro 5.17 6.48 .57 trzu 5.99 6.86 .58
KPel 5.20 6.29 .57 MPra 6.00 7.37 .61
LEBR 5.35 6.12 .62 22Re 6.39 7.70 .36
avgA 5.43 6.19 .61 AnBa 6.49 7.82 .54
DRKO 5.82 6.69 .54 TmRk 6.66 7.71 .49
emin 5.84 7.28 .52 vegas 6.66 7.76 .50
EBPI 5.86 7.07 .52 nuFi 6.70 8.01 .48
Crow 5.89 6.81 .58 4141 6.72 9.58
ncs. 5.89 6.84 .53 EExp 6.95 8.11 .48
538R 5.91 7.47 .51 538E 7.47 8.85 .31Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.96 5.96 .65 Crow 6.05 6.79 .59
KPel 5.16 6.48 .55 538R 6.11 7.64 .50
avgA 5.35 6.29 .61 BIPM 6.16 7.46 .64
vzro 5.42 6.78 .54 22Re 6.48 7.90 .34
LEBR 5.66 6.40 .59 AnBa 6.54 7.93 .53
emin 5.73 7.27 .52 TmRk 6.64 7.74 .50
DRKO 5.80 6.76 .54 vegas 6.65 7.77 .51
MPra 5.82 7.25 .62 nuFi 6.82 8.17 .46
EBPI 5.91 7.32 .49 4141 6.93 9.70
trzu 5.94 6.87 .59 EExp 7.10 8.20 .48
ncs. 5.94 6.98 .52 538E 7.63 9.13 .28
UPDATE Mar.11 -- it's looking like a runaway.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
dtka 4.76 dtka 5.77
.
.
.
KPel 5.07 avgA 6.13
. LEBR 6.21
avgA 5.20 KPel 6.30
vzro 5.25
.
. vzro 6.56
DRKO 5.52 DRKO 6.59
LEBR 5.53
emin 5.57 trzu 6.76
. Crow 6.76
EBPI 5.67 ncs. 6.78
trzu 5.76
ncs. 5.77
BIPM 5.79 EBPI 7.01
. BIPM 7.10
Crow 5.96 emin 7.13
MPra 5.98
538R 6.00
. MPra 7.33
.
. 538R 7.51
AnBa 6.39
22Re 6.42 TmRk 7.61
TmRk 6.46 vegas 7.67
vegas 6.46
nuFi 6.55 22Re 7.78
. AnBa 7.80
.
. nuFi 7.90
EExp 6.92
4141 6.94 EExp 8.07
.
.
.
.
.
.
538E 7.57
.
.
. 538E 9.00
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
I am currently 12th on average error (ouch, could be my lowest ever) but 7th on rmse and tied for 5th on r2.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
With that RMSE on a different planet altogether. A resounding success for the value of blending (high quality) metrics. I've had a very good season (not on this but gambling wise, which admittedly is a far more complex model) but it is always good to get a little perspective and dig into what others who have success are doing.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.93 6.00 .65 BIPM 6.03 7.47 .64
KPel 5.10 6.52 .55 MPra 6.08 7.44 .60
avgA 5.24 6.29 .61 538R 6.23 7.69 .50
vzro 5.50 6.84 .53 22Re 6.40 7.89 .34
DRKO 5.61 6.66 .55 TmRk 6.66 7.84 .49
LEBR 5.71 6.46 .59 vegas 6.66 7.91 .49
trzu 5.72 6.87 .59 AnBa 6.76 8.08 .51
EBPI 5.76 7.22 .51 nuFi 6.87 8.17 .46
ncs. 5.79 6.83 .53 EExp 6.98 8.27 .47
emin 5.79 7.36 .52 4141 7.07 9.72
Crow 5.94 6.75 .59 538E 7.56 9.02 .30
UPDATE Mar.21
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.95 6.07 .64 BIPM 6.00 7.57 .63
KPel 5.32 6.58 .54 MPra 6.15 7.53 .59
avgA 5.33 6.36 .60 538R 6.27 7.73 .49
vzro 5.56 6.83 .53 22Re 6.34 7.78 .35
LEBR 5.72 6.48 .58 TmRk 6.68 7.91 .48
DRKO 5.74 6.75 .54 vegas 6.69 7.99 .48
EBPI 5.81 7.26 .50 AnBa 6.83 8.14 .51
ncs. 5.84 6.89 .53 EExp 6.88 8.29 .47
Crow 5.87 6.80 .59 nuFi 6.90 8.18 .46
trzu 5.89 6.98 .58 4141 6.97 9.69
emin 5.93 7.46 .50 538E 7.51 8.94 .30
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
6th on rmse for me, tied for 4th on r2.
Top 5 on average error in the end is fairly unlikely but some further improvement still possible..
Top 5 on average error in the end is fairly unlikely but some further improvement still possible..
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DarkStar48
- Posts: 116
- Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2021 1:24 am
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
It is truly impressive how much @dtka’s CraftedNBA contest entry is so far significantly outperforming every submission at all three levels of statistical fit.
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Which, if any, media writer with analytics interest will write on the story?
Pelton, Hollinger, Partnow, Schuhmann,,,?
I've had interest in, promoted, used metrics blends for many years (including in my base for this season's contest) It should get more acknowledgement, endorsement, broader use.
I wasn't convinced that Crafted PM was the best blend possible but it is certainly very good for this season, with some mix of quality and "good fortune".
Pelton, Hollinger, Partnow, Schuhmann,,,?
I've had interest in, promoted, used metrics blends for many years (including in my base for this season's contest) It should get more acknowledgement, endorsement, broader use.
I wasn't convinced that Crafted PM was the best blend possible but it is certainly very good for this season, with some mix of quality and "good fortune".
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Luck is big.
Here's a decidedly incomplete table of entries who were entered at least twice in the last 7 years. The numbers are a sort of 'percentile', as the % of entries that finished beneath you. Middle of the pack is around 50.Caliban did not show up this year, but they were in or near top 1/3 for 6 years straight.
538 is probably now 538R or a precedent form.
Here's a decidedly incomplete table of entries who were entered at least twice in the last 7 years. The numbers are a sort of 'percentile', as the % of entries that finished beneath you. Middle of the pack is around 50.
Code: Select all
year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
# 19 13 16 17 18 20 23 yrs avg
Crow 58 46 56 94 28 15 57 7 51
vegas 21 62 88 18 39 50 70 7 49
538 32 77 19 24 22 90 0 7 38
cali 69 63 88 89 65 87 6 77
trzu 53 92 38 47 94 78 6 67
shad 85 81 41 50 40 30 6 55
emin 47 38 13 65 72 95 6 55
KPel 89 31 35 78 4 58
RyRi 59 44 60 52 4 54
sndi 53 33 85 39 4 53
dtka 95 54 50 12 4 53
ncs 63 29 0 65 4 39
eWin 8 0 45 35 4 22
year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
bbst 69 71 67 3 69
kmed 17 80 96 3 64
gold 76 56 25 3 52
lisp 31 25 82 3 46
AnJo 83 10 43 3 46
lnqi 70 78 2 74
sbs 75 48 2 61
EExp 11 94 2 52
EBPI 68 0 2 34
ATCt 30 30 2 30
GK5 35 17 2 26
Rd11 6 6 2 6
538 is probably now 538R or a precedent form.
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nbacouchside
- Posts: 151
- Joined: Sun Jul 14, 2013 4:58 am
- Contact:
Re: 2022-23 team win projection contest
Caliban the GOAT!Mike G wrote: ↑Wed Mar 22, 2023 6:56 pm Luck is big.
Here's a decidedly incomplete table of entries who were entered at least twice in the last 7 years. The numbers are a sort of 'percentile', as the % of entries that finished beneath you. Middle of the pack is around 50.Caliban did not show up this year, but they were in or near top 1/3 for 6 years straight.Code: Select all
year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 # 19 13 16 17 18 20 23 yrs avg Crow 58 46 56 94 28 15 57 7 51 vegas 21 62 88 18 39 50 70 7 49 538 32 77 19 24 22 90 0 7 38 cali 69 63 88 89 65 87 6 77 trzu 53 92 38 47 94 78 6 67 shad 85 81 41 50 40 30 6 55 emin 47 38 13 65 72 95 6 55 KPel 89 31 35 78 4 58 RyRi 59 44 60 52 4 54 sndi 53 33 85 39 4 53 dtka 95 54 50 12 4 53 ncs 63 29 0 65 4 39 eWin 8 0 45 35 4 22 year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 bbst 69 71 67 3 69 kmed 17 80 96 3 64 gold 76 56 25 3 52 lisp 31 25 82 3 46 AnJo 83 10 43 3 46 lnqi 70 78 2 74 sbs 75 48 2 61 EExp 11 94 2 52 EBPI 68 0 2 34 ATCt 30 30 2 30 GK5 35 17 2 26 Rd11 6 6 2 6
538 is probably now 538R or a precedent form.