Kings historic offense fell to 11th best in playoffs. Lakers defensive efficiency went to 2nd best. Guess at shares of responsibility.
Griz, Cavs, Nets were 14th to 16th on offensive efficiency. None are going to change Coach but should look hard at lineups, play-calling and rosters.
No team was truly outstanding so far on both sides of ball.
Overall, ts%, offensive efficiency and pace all fell from regular season. Quality of teams should raise and lower that. Evenly? I dunno. Maybe not.
2023 Playoff misc.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
There was great variation in the Celts' minutes/value correlations.
Code: Select all
. Celtics Min PER WS/48 BPM e480
Jayson Tatum 237 20.9 .140 3.1 1.80
Jaylen Brown 227 17.8 .070 -0.7 1.27
Al Horford 196 12.7 .123 3.2 .72
Derrick White 196 18.1 .162 3.1 1.13
Marcus Smart 186 20.1 .174 3.4 1.39
Malcolm Brogdon 156 15.5 .107 -1.8 .87
Robert Williams 137 20.2 .213 4.1 1.14
Sam Hauser 63 9.2 .104 -1.2 -.05
Grant Williams 36 20.8 .260 7.4 .79
correl. w min. .24 -.50 -.20 .73
If you value overall productivity, then the minutes distribution looks pretty sound.
Last night, Celts dominated in shooting% and rebounds, and they still lost. The 2:1 turnover ratio would not seem to offset all else, and it appears the Team Rebounds were also in favor of Philly.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Bucks in playoffs:
2 lineups near 6 min /gm. Both around +10. Then 5 of next 6 small and mostly horribly negative. Ridiculous 80 lineups used instead of greater concentration on very best performers. A new, not been used in playoffs lineup at an average of EVERY 3 minutes (along with some repeats). Only 1 lineup used every game and just 5 in more than 2.
Lopez negative in all 5 of his biggest minute pairs, with time with Giannis being the worst and quite awful.
2 lineups near 6 min /gm. Both around +10. Then 5 of next 6 small and mostly horribly negative. Ridiculous 80 lineups used instead of greater concentration on very best performers. A new, not been used in playoffs lineup at an average of EVERY 3 minutes (along with some repeats). Only 1 lineup used every game and just 5 in more than 2.
Lopez negative in all 5 of his biggest minute pairs, with time with Giannis being the worst and quite awful.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Devin Booker last night with his best playoff GmSc yet, w highest BPM in this postseason.
He now has 3 of the 5 best games this year.
It's the 21st highest GmSc ever and knocks his previous best out of the top 25.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
See the OP for details.
Booker had played 409 NBA games, almost 14,000 minutes before he ever got into a playoff game. Career rates so far:
He now has 3 of the 5 best games this year.
It's the 21st highest GmSc ever and knocks his previous best out of the top 25.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... score.html
See the OP for details.
Booker had played 409 NBA games, almost 14,000 minutes before he ever got into a playoff game. Career rates so far:
Code: Select all
Booker PER TS% Reb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% WS/48 BPM
Reg.Sea. 18.4 .575 6.4 23.7 1.2 .7 12.9 30.3 .096 0.9
Playoffs 19.7 .595 7.5 20.4 1.3 .9 12.5 30.7 .112 2.9Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Thanks for raising this data again, which to my knowledge has never been highlighted or now discussed by any other basketball media.
Jordan still has best Game Score in regular season but only 2 in top 20 to Harden's 3.
Jordan 2 in top 20 in playoffs but Barkley has 3 and the higher best.
Bryant with 1 in top 20 rs, none in playoffs. James, 1 each. Durant 1 in rs, none in playoffs.
Perimeters with 70% of both top 20s.
13 of top 20 rs in last 7 years. Eras matter on rules and officiating and talent development, through maybe less in playoffs- just 6 of top 20 in last 7 years.
Jordan and Lillard tied with 4 in rs and playoffs combined for period covered. Only 8 with 2 plus. The top games are really high and hare for even the greats to reach
Overall a lot of reason to think highly of now players.
Surprisingly only 1 Jordan playoff game in top 10 and it was only one in group associated with a title winner that season and a bit more than half of the stars with such games never won a title. Team game. This last detail / observation is the most important.
Less "important" but still notable is the general phobia of the basketball media with using / discussing available metrics. Maybe better in 5-10-20 years? Whatever.
Jordan still has best Game Score in regular season but only 2 in top 20 to Harden's 3.
Jordan 2 in top 20 in playoffs but Barkley has 3 and the higher best.
Bryant with 1 in top 20 rs, none in playoffs. James, 1 each. Durant 1 in rs, none in playoffs.
Perimeters with 70% of both top 20s.
13 of top 20 rs in last 7 years. Eras matter on rules and officiating and talent development, through maybe less in playoffs- just 6 of top 20 in last 7 years.
Jordan and Lillard tied with 4 in rs and playoffs combined for period covered. Only 8 with 2 plus. The top games are really high and hare for even the greats to reach
Overall a lot of reason to think highly of now players.
Surprisingly only 1 Jordan playoff game in top 10 and it was only one in group associated with a title winner that season and a bit more than half of the stars with such games never won a title. Team game. This last detail / observation is the most important.
Less "important" but still notable is the general phobia of the basketball media with using / discussing available metrics. Maybe better in 5-10-20 years? Whatever.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
They still inevitably cite FG%, as if that is anything....the general phobia of the basketball media to using / discussing available metrics...
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Jordan with about 10% lead on James for best playoff career BPM. James with about a 40% lead by VORP.
Jokic a close 3rd by BPM. Curry only 8th.
Superstars more valuable for their floor, median and upper half or quarter than absolute max games.
Jokic a close 3rd by BPM. Curry only 8th.
Superstars more valuable for their floor, median and upper half or quarter than absolute max games.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Harden with the 21st biggest playoff game ever, Jokic with #31. See also the OP.
Booker with .872 / 36-6-12 misses another, likely due to 5 TO.
This postseason is closing in on becoming the most prolific ever in top-100 GmSc; already #1 in top-50's.
Joker's one other top100 was also a loss, to SAS in 2019. His 3 'biggest' games this year are the 3 the Nuggets have lost.
His 10 highest Usg% in career playoff games have resulted in just one Win, in game 2 of this Phx series.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... -advanced/
Code: Select all
date player tm opp Min TSA TS% Pts Rb As St Bk TO BPM GmSc
5-07 Harden Phl Bos 47 25 .848 42 8 9 4 1 1 28.1 43.9
5-07 Jokic Den Phx 39 36 .742 53 4 11 0 1 6 18.7 42.4
This postseason is closing in on becoming the most prolific ever in top-100 GmSc; already #1 in top-50's.
Joker's one other top100 was also a loss, to SAS in 2019. His 3 'biggest' games this year are the 3 the Nuggets have lost.
His 10 highest Usg% in career playoff games have resulted in just one Win, in game 2 of this Phx series.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... -advanced/
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Thru 5 games of the 2nd round, Booker and Jokic are #1-2 in both VORP and Win Shares, and by wide margins.
With Butler, they're 1-3 in WS/48 and PER (but JImmy lags in BPM).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
Durant and J Murray are strong #2's throughout the series. From the WC Rd2 thread, here are their total eWins after each game so far:After 4 games, Book+KD had caught up to the Denver duo.
By individual game, it looks like this:That's some shocking consistency on the left.
These 4 guys account for 3.9 of 5 total wins!
EDIT -- Game 6 added.
Murkic saved their best for last. BooKD peaked Gm3, faded to black.
With Butler, they're 1-3 in WS/48 and PER (but JImmy lags in BPM).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... anced.html
Durant and J Murray are strong #2's throughout the series. From the WC Rd2 thread, here are their total eWins after each game so far:
Code: Select all
Gm Jokic Murray J+M B+D Booker Durant
1 .19 .23 .42 .29 .13 .16
2 .56 .28 .84 .60 .32 .28
3 .84 .42 1.26 1.21 .69 .52
4 1.10 .52 1.62 1.62 .90 .72
5 1.41 .63 2.04 1.84 1.02 .82
6 1.76 .81 2.57 1.90 1.01 .89
By individual game, it looks like this:
Code: Select all
Gm Jok Mur J+M B+D Book KD
1 .19 .23 .42 .29 .13 .16
2 .37 .05 .42 .31 .19 .12
3 .28 .14 .42 .61 .37 .24
4 .26 .10 .36 .41 .21 .20
5 .31 .11 .42 .22 .12 .10
6 .35 .18 .53 .06 -.01 .07
These 4 guys account for 3.9 of 5 total wins!
EDIT -- Game 6 added.
Murkic saved their best for last. BooKD peaked Gm3, faded to black.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Jason Tatum game 7 registers the 13th best GmSc, and the best by a Celtic, since 1985 at least.
Individual "top 100" games in this postseason:50 points and zero TO may be unmatched.
Individual "top 100" games in this postseason:
Code: Select all
date player tm opp Min TSA TS% Pts Rb As St Bk TO BPM GmSc
4-20 Booker Phx LAC 44 32 .701 45 6 3 3 2 0 15.3 39.4
4-22 Morant Mem LAL 42 32 .700 45 9 13 0 0 3 25.5 40.8
4-24 Butler Mia Mil 41 36 .780 56 9 2 0 1 1 21.0 48.2
4-25 Booker Phx LAC 44 29 .793 47 8 10 2 0 3 17.2 42.9
5-05 Booker Phx Den 42 26 .908 47 6 9 3 1 3 26.6 44.3
5-07 Harden Phl Bos 47 25 .848 42 8 9 4 1 1 28.1 43.9
5-07 Jokic Den Phx 39 36 .742 53 4 11 0 1 6 18.7 42.4
5-14 Tatum Bos Phl 42 34 .746 51 13 5 2 0 0 28.1 46.0Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Everyone from the 2nd round with decent minutes:
PER, WS, and BPM were extracted from recorded 1st round rates and current (1st+2nd) rates.
With minutes, thrown into a template from last year's playoffs. All 4 columns add up to about 25 wins, so I went with it.
Team totals:
Code: Select all
wins round2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
1.74 Nikola Jokić Den 231 37.3 .365 16.5 3.65 1.68 1.71 1.81 1.76
1.43 Jayson Tatum Bos 277 26.7 .242 9.4 2.77 1.33 1.36 1.41 1.60
1.23 Jalen Brunson NYK 255 25.1 .257 8.5 2.30 1.13 1.33 1.22 1.22
1.14 Devin Booker Phx 243 27.0 .202 10.7 1.99 1.19 1.00 1.36 1.01
.98 Anthony Davis LAL 225 24.3 .227 6.6 2.19 .96 1.04 .91 1.03
.89 LeBron James LAL 225 22.5 .178 7.2 2.01 .86 .81 .96 .94
.88 James Harden Phl 283 20.6 .108 5.3 1.59 .96 .62 1.00 .94
.88 Jimmy Butler Mia 205 23.2 .219 7.1 2.14 .82 .91 .87 .91
.82 Jaylen Brown Bos 264 19.1 .152 3.4 1.64 .80 .81 .74 .90
.73 Jamal Murray Den 231 20.4 .151 3.1 1.69 .77 .71 .63 .81
wins round2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.73 Stephen Curry GSW 219 19.5 .106 7.0 1.84 .69 .47 .92 .84
.67 Kyle Lowry Mia 174 19.4 .210 8.3 1.64 .54 .74 .82 .59
.66 Kevin Durant Phx 247 20.2 .041 3.8 1.73 .82 .21 .73 .89
.59 Joel Embiid Phl 228 20.6 .056 1.9 1.70 .78 .26 .51 .81
.57 Al Horford Bos 221 14.2 .149 4.5 1.05 .42 .67 .72 .48
.56 Bam Adebayo Mia 227 16.9 .134 0.2 1.49 .58 .62 .36 .70
.52 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 205 16.7 .140 2.1 1.18 .51 .59 .47 .50
.49 Tyrese Maxey Phl 275 15.8 .060 0.9 .88 .63 .34 .51 .51
.49 Kentavious C-P Den 200 14.6 .183 3.3 .62 .40 .74 .56 .26
.46 Max Strus Mia 175 15.3 .157 3.4 1.15 .38 .56 .50 .42
wins round2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.44 Marcus Smart Bos 253 13.5 .101 -0.9 .95 .44 .52 .30 .50
.42 Bruce Brown Den 150 18.1 .182 2.4 1.03 .42 .55 .37 .32
.40 Michael Porter Den 182 14.6 .138 0.7 1.04 .37 .51 .33 .39
.38 Draymond Green GSW 176 14.3 .106 1.9 1.10 .34 .38 .40 .40
.38 Robert Williams Bos 148 15.8 .201 2.4 .76 .34 .61 .36 .23
.37 Kevon Looney GSW 114 21.1 .187 3.1 1.45 .40 .43 .31 .34
.36 Austin Reaves LAL 202 13.4 .104 0.5 .78 .35 .43 .35 .33
.34 RJ Barrett NYK 208 13.6 .051 -0.5 1.14 .37 .22 .28 .50
.33 Andrew Wiggins GSW 194 13.4 .094 -0.3 .81 .34 .37 .28 .33
.32 Gary Payton GSW 95 21.1 .204 4.6 1.14 .33 .39 .31 .23
.31 Caleb Martin Mia 170 12.6 .121 0.3 .74 .26 .42 .28 .26
wins round2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.30 Aaron Gordon Den 223 11.9 .101 -1.8 .54 .31 .46 .19 .25
.30 Julius Randle NYK 187 13.3 .033 -0.1 1.21 .32 .13 .28 .47
.26 Is. Hartenstein NYK 121 13.6 .183 2.4 .32 .21 .45 .30 .08
.26 Tobias Harris Phl 257 11.7 .045 -1.9 .45 .34 .24 .21 .24
.26 Lonnie Walker LAL 106 15.8 .155 3.3 .72 .24 .33 .29 .16
.24 D'Angelo Russell LAL 192 12.5 .046 -1.8 .81 .29 .18 .16 .32
.23 Rui Hachimura LAL 101 16.4 .129 2.8 .64 .24 .27 .26 .13
.23 Derrick White Bos 185 11.3 .108 -1.6 .26 .23 .41 .17 .10
.22 Moses Moody GSW 96 14.3 .169 3.0 .61 .19 .33 .26 .12
.22 Paul Reed Phl 91 17.2 .157 1.8 .77 .24 .29 .20 .15
wins round2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.21 Jock Landale Phx 105 15.8 .143 0.0 .60 .24 .31 .16 .13
.19 Dennis Schröder LAL 159 11.3 .086 -2.0 .49 .20 .28 .12 .16
.19 P.J. Tucker Phl 188 9.2 .067 0.7 .01 .14 .26 .34 .00
.18 Deandre Ayton Phx 147 13.9 .036 -2.0 .74 .27 .11 .11 .23
.17 Mi. Robinson NYK 157 11.4 .089 -3.0 .42 .20 .28 .06 .14
.15 De'An. Melton Phl 172 10.6 .017 0.1 .26 .18 .06 .27 .09
.13 Josh Hart NYK 178 8.5 .034 -2.9 .53 .11 .12 .08 .20
.12 Kevin Love Mia 118 8.6 .055 -2.2 .85 .07 .13 .08 .21
.12 Gabe Vincent Mia 180 8.0 .025 -2.7 .55 .09 .09 .09 .21
.11 Cameron Payne Phx 149 10.2 .011 -1.9 .40 .15 .03 .12 .12
wins round2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
.08 Obi Toppin NYK 89 10.2 .032 -1.0 .49 .09 .06 .10 .09
.08 Grant Williams Bos 80 8.2 .103 -0.3 .02 .04 .17 .11 .00
.07 Klay Thompson GSW 217 7.4 -.014 -3.3 .47 .07 -.06 .06 .21
.07 Donte DiVincenzo GSW 116 8.6 .004 -1.2 .31 .07 .01 .12 .08
.06 Landry Shamet Phx 129 8.4 .033 -2.6 .01 .07 .09 .07 .00
.06 Jeff Green Den 100 7.6 .098 -4.1 -.04 .04 .20 .00 -.01
.05 Chris Paul Phx 57 13.1 -.051 -0.1 .57 .09 -.06 .08 .07
.03 Ja. Vanderbilt LAL 87 8.1 .013 -4.7 .36 .04 .02 -.02 .07
.02 Quentin Grimes NYK 180 5.1 .024 -2.5 -.18 -.04 .09 .10 -.07
-.01 Georges Niang Phl 95 6.8 .006 -3.2 -.40 .02 .01 .03 -.08
wins round2 tm Min PER WS/48 BPM e480 perW WS bpmW eWin
-.01 Christian Braun Den 82 5.3 .021 -5.5 -.16 -.01 .04 -.05 -.03
-.02 T.J. Warren Phx 75 6.0 -.033 -3.4 -.20 .00 -.05 .02 -.03
-.03 Jordan Poole GSW 124 5.8 -.034 -6.7 .35 .00 -.08 -.13 .09
-.03 Im. Quickley NYK 57 6.3 -.102 -4.9 .01 .00 -.12 -.02 .00
-.05 Duncan Robinson Mia 93 4.5 -.055 -5.6 .04 -.03 -.10 -.06 .01
-.05 Terrence Ross Phx 65 4.5 -.073 -6.3 -.13 -.02 -.10 -.06 -.02
-.07 Josh Okogie Phx 75 3.4 -.084 -6.0 -.41 -.04 -.13 -.06 -.06
With minutes, thrown into a template from last year's playoffs. All 4 columns add up to about 25 wins, so I went with it.
Team totals:
Code: Select all
rd2 PER WS/48 BPM e480
Bos 16.8 .154 2.87 1.25
Phl 14.5 .057 0.72 .75
Mia 14.2 .119 1.28 1.13
NYK 13.0 .086 0.31 .87
Den 17.8 .168 2.90 1.25
Phx 14.1 .044 0.58 .75
LAL 16.1 .123 1.59 1.09
GSW 13.6 .082 0.86 .92
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
How bad was Embiid's game 7 ? According to vorp, his worst playoff game ever, and also his worst game in 2 years.
vorp = (BPM+2)*Min/48
Everyone has a bad game now and then. How does this one rank among fellow 2023 mvp candidates?
Worst game this year:
Donovan Mitchell's clunker was also in the playoffs. And here are their worst playoff games ever:
vorp = (BPM+2)*Min/48
Everyone has a bad game now and then. How does this one rank among fellow 2023 mvp candidates?
Worst game this year:
Code: Select all
2023 date Opp Min GmSc BPM vorp
Jokic 4.04 Hou 24.7 9.6 -4.2 -1.13
Shai 11.18 Mem 33.9 8.3 -7.2 -3.67
Embiid 5.14 Bos 38.3 3.7 -9.4 -5.90
Giannis 1.06 Cha 22.0 .7 -21.7 -9.03
Tatum 12.02 Mia 41.0 2.9 -13.3 -9.65
Mitchell 4.23 NYK 42.0 -1.9 -15.2 -11.55
Code: Select all
playoffs year date Opp Min BPM vorp
Giannis 2017 5.22 Tor 42.4 -3.3 -1.15
Jokic 2021 5.29 Por 26.7 -5.8 -2.11
Tatum 2019 5.30 Mil 24.5 -13.5 -5.87
Embiid 2023 5.14 Bos 38.3 -9.4 -5.90
Shai 2020 8.29 Hou 34.4 -12.7 -7.67
Tatum 2022 5.21 Mia 40.7 -13.3 -9.58
Mitchell 2023 4.23 NYK 42.0 -15.2 -11.55
Mitchell 2019 4.24 Hou 39.0 -16.5 -11.78
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Code: Select all
Increase from rd1 to rd2 (ranked by BPM+) first round second round
impr. tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e480
Lowry Mia 8 9.7 .188 11.4 1.41 9.7 .022 -3.1 .23 19.4 .210 8.3 1.64
Strus Mia 0 8.1 .096 6.8 1.47 7.2 .061 -3.4 -.32 15.3 .157 3.4 1.15
Tatum Bos 0 5.8 .102 6.3 .96 20.9 .140 3.1 1.80 26.7 .242 9.4 2.77
Shamet Phx 11 6.8 .108 5.8 .40 1.6 -.075 -8.4 -.38 8.4 .033 -2.6 .01
KCP Den 0 5.8 .113 5.8 .46 8.8 .070 -2.5 .16 14.6 .183 3.3 .62
Jokić Den 2 9.2 .090 5.0 .44 28.1 .275 11.5 3.21 37.3 .365 16.5 3.65
Brown Bos 0 1.3 .082 4.1 .37 17.8 .070 -0.7 1.27 19.1 .152 3.4 1.64
Brogdon Bos 3 1.2 .033 3.9 .31 15.5 .107 -1.8 .87 16.7 .140 2.1 1.18
Harden Phl 4 5.9 -.011 3.6 -.13 14.7 .119 1.7 1.72 20.6 .108 5.3 1.59
Walker LAL 15 2.1 .022 3.2 .41 13.7 .133 0.1 .31 15.8 .155 3.3 .72
impr. tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e480
Payton GSW 2 6.7 .099 3.0 .47 14.4 .105 1.6 .67 21.1 .204 4.6 1.14
Ayton Phx -10 -.2 -.020 2.8 -.25 14.1 .056 -4.8 .99 13.9 .036 -2.0 .74
Adebayo Mia 6 .7 .093 2.4 -.05 16.2 .041 -2.2 1.53 16.9 .134 0.2 1.49
Green Den -6 4.5 .100 1.9 .58 3.1 -.002 -6.0 -.62 7.6 .098 -4.1 -.04
Brunson NYK 5 5.0 .071 1.9 .33 20.1 .186 6.6 1.97 25.1 .257 8.5 2.30
Niang Phl -2 .7 -.083 1.7 -.11 6.1 .089 -4.9 -.29 6.8 .006 -3.2 -.40
LeBron LAL 0 2.4 .020 1.6 -.09 20.1 .158 5.6 2.10 22.5 .178 7.2 2.01
Randle NYK 3 3.7 .035 1.6 -.06 9.6 -.002 -1.7 1.26 13.3 .033 -0.1 1.21
Brown Den -2 3.4 .057 1.3 .30 14.7 .125 1.1 .73 18.1 .182 2.4 1.03
Horford Bos -1 1.5 .026 1.3 .33 12.7 .123 3.2 .72 14.2 .149 4.5 1.05
impr. tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e480 PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e480
Wiggins GSW -3 .0 .018 1.1 -.11 13.4 .076 -1.4 .92 13.4 .094 -0.3 .81
Davis LAL 1 1.2 .030 1.0 -.17 23.1 .197 5.6 2.37 24.3 .227 6.6 2.19
Curry GSW -3 -1.8 -.047 0.9 -.03 21.3 .153 6.1 1.88 19.5 .106 7.0 1.84Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Celtics, Heat and Lakers have each used 70-85 lineups so far on playoffs. Nuggets That's 6-8 new ones every game. At this point in the season? Nuggets at about 40.
Coaches are constantly trying for specific advantages against specific lineups or responding to threats and it may seem hard to break that cycle, but this puts the average lineup use per game at not that much more than 1/2 minute for the first 3 and not that much more than 1 minute for Nuggets.
The conference finalst each have just 1-2 lineups used over 50 minutes.
Over 1000 total lineups used in playoffs so far, with nearly all being dinks. Barely over 40% of all lineups were cumulatively positive.
Heat with 4 of 8 best player pairs over 50 minutes. Lakers and Nuggets with 2 in top 20. Celtics barely one. Heat 7 in top 50, Lakers 8, Nuggets 8.
Celtics just 5. Lineup management might bite them despite the very strong overall talent profile.
9 of 10 best performing Celtics trios over 50 minutes have Brogdon all the time. 4 each specify Smart, Brown and Tatum. Less for everybody else. Brogdon 6th on minutes per game at under 28. Room to increase... or possibly regret not doing so.
Coaches are constantly trying for specific advantages against specific lineups or responding to threats and it may seem hard to break that cycle, but this puts the average lineup use per game at not that much more than 1/2 minute for the first 3 and not that much more than 1 minute for Nuggets.
The conference finalst each have just 1-2 lineups used over 50 minutes.
Over 1000 total lineups used in playoffs so far, with nearly all being dinks. Barely over 40% of all lineups were cumulatively positive.
Heat with 4 of 8 best player pairs over 50 minutes. Lakers and Nuggets with 2 in top 20. Celtics barely one. Heat 7 in top 50, Lakers 8, Nuggets 8.
Celtics just 5. Lineup management might bite them despite the very strong overall talent profile.
9 of 10 best performing Celtics trios over 50 minutes have Brogdon all the time. 4 each specify Smart, Brown and Tatum. Less for everybody else. Brogdon 6th on minutes per game at under 28. Room to increase... or possibly regret not doing so.
Re: 2023 Playoff misc.
Thru 2 rounds, players most 'improved' from regular season to postseason, according to BPM (which measures presumed strength of opponent).
Of this top 20, 15 made it to the 2nd round, and 8 are going to rd 3.
And the bummers:In this 20, 8 went out in the 1st round, 7 in the 2nd, 5 are still going.
Teams ranked by strength in regular season of lineups in the playoffs:PER and WS are included for corroboration (or not).
The minutes played by available Heat players were, in sum, just average BPM in the regular season. Thru 2 rounds, they've averaged about 1.3*4.33 = 5.6 pts/100 better.
A +5.6 SRS over 82 games should be about 54-28 W-L.
Code: Select all
(BPMp-BPMr)*Min/48 regular season playoffs
vorp+ Player Tm PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
62.2 Devin Booker Phx 22.0 .157 4.2 28.7 .237 10.7
39.0 Anthony Edwards Min 17.4 .064 1.0 27.6 .191 10.4
35.1 Jalen Brunson NYK 21.2 .175 3.9 23.1 .227 7.7
34.6 RJ Barrett NYK 12.9 .043 -3.1 14.7 .105 1.3
32.3 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.7 .081 -1.9 17.6 .181 4.2
24.8 Moses Moody GSW 10.3 .076 -2.6 16.8 .202 4.8
24.7 Jamal Murray Den 18.0 .116 1.3 21.1 .169 4.1
24.5 P.J. Tucker Phl 5.7 .064 -3.0 9.6 .091 1.0
22.2 Kyle Lowry Mia 12.6 .096 0.2 15.7 .139 4.0
18.0 Bg. Bogdanović Atl 14.2 .088 0.5 19.2 .164 6.0
vorp+ Player Tm PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
17.8 Duncan Robinson Mia 7.8 .035 -5.0 10.7 .053 -0.6
17.4 Marcus Smart Bos 12.1 .092 -1.0 16.3 .132 0.9
16.4 Caleb Martin Mia 11.4 .086 -1.2 14.7 .152 1.4
16.2 Dejounte Murray Atl 17.0 .084 1.0 20.7 .100 5.1
15.4 Pat Connaughton Mil 10.0 .085 -1.1 21.4 .209 7.3
15.3 Draymond Green GSW 12.2 .098 0.8 14.7 .126 2.8
14.1 De'Aaron Fox Sac 21.8 .146 2.5 19.0 .093 5.0
13.7 Bruce Brown Den 13.3 .090 -0.5 16.5 .155 1.8
13.5 Obi Toppin NYK 13.6 .095 -0.5 14.7 .115 3.2
13.5 Max Strus Mia 10.8 .071 -1.7 11.7 .113 0.3
And the bummers:
Code: Select all
vorp+ Player Tm PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
-51.1 Joel Embiid Phl 31.4 .259 9.2 20.4 .091 1.9
-33.0 Kevin Durant Phx 24.3 .196 7.9 21.2 .115 4.5
-32.4 Josh Hart NYK 17.1 .179 3.4 10.9 .088 -1.0
-30.9 Julius Randle NYK 20.3 .142 3.7 11.7 .018 -0.8
-29.2 Deandre Ayton Phx 19.9 .147 0.9 14.0 .047 -3.5
-28.1 Aaron Gordon Den 19.5 .158 2.1 13.3 .136 -1.4
-25.8 Domantas Sabonis Sac 23.5 .221 5.8 16.0 .064 0.7
-25.5 Karl-A Towns Min 18.8 .133 3.0 12.4 -.020 -3.8
-23.4 Klay Thompson GSW 14.7 .066 -0.3 9.4 .015 -2.7
-20.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.1 .118 2.4 14.0 .086 -0.2
vorp+ Player Tm PER WS/48 BPM PER WS/48 BPM
-19.7 Immanuel Quickley NYK 16.3 .137 1.7 7.5 .024 -3.7
-19.4 Kevin Huerter Sac 15.2 .107 1.0 6.7 .007 -4.1
-18.4 Bam Adebayo Mia 20.1 .137 1.5 16.7 .096 -0.8
-18.1 Malcolm Brogdon Bos 18.2 .161 2.8 16.2 .126 0.4
-17.9 Jrue Holiday Mil 19.2 .148 3.1 13.8 .040 -1.4
-15.3 Evan Mobley Cle 17.9 .151 1.7 9.6 .035 -2.2
-13.3 Jaren Jackson Mem 21.6 .177 2.8 14.2 .072 -0.1
-13.2 Joe Harris Brk 10.6 .083 -1.2 -5.3 -.263 -15.6
-13.0 Desmond Bane Mem 19.1 .151 3.5 13.4 .057 0.8
-12.7 Derrick White Bos 15.4 .154 2.4 14.8 .136 0.8
Teams ranked by strength in regular season of lineups in the playoffs:
Code: Select all
vorp+ PER WS/48 BPM Tm PER WS/48 BPM Min
+13.5 17.0 .146 2.2 Bos 17.1 .147 2.4 3147
-42.9 17.7 .134 2.1 Phx 16.1 .091 1.4 2639
-25.5 17.2 .146 2.0 Cle 12.0 .071 0.9 1203
+35.9 17.6 .139 1.9 Den 17.0 .160 2.5 2666
-27.0 17.0 .140 1.7 Phl 15.1 .100 1.2 2665
-29.1 16.9 .136 1.6 Mem 12.1 .058 0.7 1465
+26.4 17.3 .125 1.6 LAL 15.9 .132 2.1 2857
-8.8 16.7 .137 1.4 NYK 13.9 .112 1.3 2636
-30.8 16.2 .132 1.3 Mil 15.0 .073 0.1 1223
-13.0 16.0 .121 1.3 GSW 14.3 .099 1.1 3119
+0.0 16.4 .118 0.7 Sac 13.7 .085 0.7 1680
+6.4 15.9 .117 0.4 LAC 15.0 .058 0.7 1199
+7.9 16.7 .113 0.4 Atl 15.6 .065 0.7 1440
-23.7 15.3 .106 0.4 Brk 12.2 .026 -0.8 961
-9.5 15.2 .106 0.3 Min 13.9 .051 -0.1 1226
+68.0 14.7 .110 0.1 Mia 15.3 .122 1.3 2662
The minutes played by available Heat players were, in sum, just average BPM in the regular season. Thru 2 rounds, they've averaged about 1.3*4.33 = 5.6 pts/100 better.
A +5.6 SRS over 82 games should be about 54-28 W-L.