2023-24 team win projection contest

[Mike G]

I am tied with Darko for variances from BRef current projection by 2 or less but have 5 more of 7 or greater.

You may be pleased to know that, while drko leads at exponents 1 and 2 and everything above; you have the lead at e<.15.
This is due to 4 direct hits -- on Bos, Brk, NYK, Den -- and a couple other near-best guesses.
It's an unstable position though. Whether these teams win or lose their next game, you've lost them as zero-errors.

UPDATE Nov 12
Here's the contest mixing everyone from within and without, plus 2 more 'dummies':

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   4.59   5.54   .50      EBPI   5.95   6.93   .31
LEBR   5.11   6.27   .37      4141   6.09   7.68   
dtka   5.13   6.64   .37      vzro   6.14   7.44   .35
KPel   5.16   6.61   .32      ChKl   6.22   7.87   .30
ncs.   5.36   6.61   .36      eWin   6.38   7.75   .08
trzu   5.41   6.69   .35     vegas   6.39   7.52   .29
avgA   5.45   6.68   .36      emin   6.75   8.20   .33
Crow   5.51   7.01   .32      EExp   6.76   7.95   .28
23py   5.51   7.12   .18      IanL   6.94   8.50   .28
23re   5.68   7.03   .20      DQin   7.03   8.71   .17
medi   5.89   7.03   .46      NuFi   7.22   9.61   .16

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
23re is last year's win total regressed halfway to 41.
23re = (W+41)/2
23py is last year's Pythagorean "should have won" based on point differential; also averaged with 41.

UPDATE Nov.13 -- Darko's biggest lead yet.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   4.57   5.65   .52      23re   6.03   7.22   .22
dtka   5.16   6.71   .38      vzro   6.19   7.42   .37
trzu   5.22   6.73   .38      ChKl   6.25   7.81   .33
KPel   5.31   6.74   .34     vegas   6.32   7.61   .30
LEBR   5.32   6.45   .38      4141   6.59   8.05   
ncs.   5.38   6.73   .37      EExp   6.67   7.99   .30
avgA   5.40   6.76   .38      eWin   6.79   8.06   .08
Crow   5.53   7.09   .34      IanL   6.83   8.47   .30
medi   5.75   6.82   .49      emin   6.97   8.26   .34
23py   5.87   7.28   .20      DQin   7.13   8.86   .18
EBPI   5.97   7.09   .32      NuFi   7.42   9.78   .16

[Mike G]

After knocking off the Nuggets -- their 6th straight win -- Houston Rockets now are projected to win 46 games. This is a full 14 wins more than our Average guess, making them by far the most overachieving team, by this definition.

Looking at their 2022-23 numbers, and even knowing their minutes this year, most analyses would not anticipate such improvement. So here they are, and in the 2nd table I've converted PER and BPM to "wins" and averaged with WS to get xyzWins:

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Hou 2023:  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM '24: mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
VanVleet   31   17.0   .123    2.5      36   15.0   .120    0.2
Ja Green   32   14.5   .034   -2.1      32   14.6   .079    0.7
Şengün     26   19.7   .115    1.4      31   25.0   .241    7.4
Brooks     27    9.4   .034   -3.9      31   13.5   .133   -0.6
Ja Smith   30   11.2   .037   -3.7      28   13.3   .107   -1.4

Ja Tate     8   12.2   .049   -3.5      20   15.8   .198    3.7
Je Green   13   11.0   .074   -3.4      15   17.7   .200    0.7
A Holiday  10    9.4   .053   -2.0      12    8.1   .046   -4.5
Landale    12   16.4   .132   -1.1       9    7.4   .020   -4.7
Thompson       (17.0   .140    2.0)      7    7.1  -.009   -5.9

Hou 2023:  mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM '24: mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM
Bullock    29    7.7   .056   -2.6       6    2.3  -.003   -5.1
Eason      22   15.2   .070   -1.7       5   14.9   .083    0.0
Whitmore       (12.6   .052   -2.1)      3    0.9  -.164  -14.6
Boban M     2   23.4   .158    1.6       2   23.1   .224    3.3
J Williams  2   15.5   .120   -3.0       1   22.6   .159    5.1

. totals: 244   13.4   .070   -1.6     240   14.9   .125    0.4

mpg are minutes divided by team games -- 82 or 9

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Hou 2023:  xyzW   perW   WS   bpmW '24: xyzW   perW   WS   bpmW
VanVleet    6.7    6.4   6.4   7.5       6.5    6.1   7.2   6.3
Ja Green    3.4    5.1   1.8   3.4       5.9    5.2   4.2   6.1
Şengün      5.8    6.8   5.1   5.5      12.0   11.1  12.7  12.1
Brooks      1.6    1.8   1.5   1.5       5.3    4.4   6.9   4.7
Ja Smith    2.2    3.0   1.9   1.8       4.2    3.9   5.0   3.6

Ja Tate      .7    1.0    .7    .5       5.4    3.8   6.7   5.6
Je Green    1.3    1.3   1.6    .9       3.8    3.4   5.1   2.9
A Holiday    .9     .7    .9   1.1        .6     .5    .9    .4
Landale     2.2    2.3   2.6   1.6        .3     .3    .3    .3
Thompson     .0     .0    .0    .0        .0     .2   -.1    .0

Hou 2023:  xyzW   perW   WS   bpmW '24: xyzW   perW   WS   bpmW
Bullock     2.1    1.0   2.7   2.7       -.1    -.4    .0    .1
Eason       2.9    3.7   2.5   2.6        .9     .9    .8    .9
Whitmore     .0     .0    .0    .0       -.5    -.2   -.7   -.7
Boban M      .6     .7    .6    .4        .7     .7    .8    .6
Je Williams  .2     .3    .3    .1        .4     .4    .4    .5

. totals:  30.3   33.6  28.1  29.2      44.6   40.3  50.3  43.3

"Wins" for this year (on the right) are multiplied by 82/9 to project to the full season, at current rates. Top 7 guys have not missed any games.
It seems PER relatively overvalues Rockets last year and undervalues this year. Their defense has been the main reason for improvement -- 11 fewer ppg allowed -- and there's no D in PER.
WS projected total is anomalously high this year, and I guess it's about point differential (+5.4) without regard for strength of schedule (-2.15 thus far).
BPM accounts for this stuff, so they look like a 43-39 team in that column: almost double last year's wins (22)

[Mike G]

A great shakeup overnight. Not so great for some.

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
DRKO   4.74   6.10   .50      vzro   5.90   7.44   .40
trzu   5.14   6.87   .40      ChKl   5.95   7.54   .39
medi   5.16   6.63   .54     vegas   6.00   7.59   .34
Crow   5.26   6.99   .40      EExp   6.22   7.86   .35
avgA   5.36   6.88   .40      IanL   6.56   8.20   .36
dtka   5.36   6.97   .39      emin   6.75   8.19   .37
KPel   5.39   6.98   .36      4141   6.76   8.62   
ncs.   5.39   7.05   .37      eWin   7.00   8.39   .10
LEBR   5.51   6.92   .36      DQin   7.02   9.10   .18
EBPI   5.77   7.09   .37      NuFi   7.53   9.93   .17

UPDATE Nov.16

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
medi   4.74   6.27   .59      DRKO   4.97   6.26   .51
trzu   5.17   6.79   .44      KPel   5.55   7.11   .37
avgA   5.34   6.80   .44      ChKl   5.63   7.07   .47
Crow   5.38   6.97   .42     vegas   5.70   7.31   .40
dtka   5.49   6.91   .43      LEBR   5.76   7.00   .39
ncs.   5.53   7.13   .39      EBPI   5.85   7.15   .39
vzro   5.88   7.30   .43      EExp   5.93   7.48   .41
emin   6.50   8.03   .40      IanL   6.09   7.63   .44
eWin   7.19   8.41   .14      4141   7.18   8.94   
DQin   7.30   9.14   .20      NuFi   7.37   9.75   .20

UPDATE Nov.17

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.Atl      Bos      Brk      Cha      Chi      Cle      Det      Ind   
DQ  46   b-r 62   nc  45   em  36   DQ  42   med 53   eW  35   b-r 46
b-r 45   med 60   b-r 44   eW  36   nc  40   DQ  51   b-r 30   eW  39
Cr  44   vz  59   Cr  42   vz  33   vz  39   dt  50   dko 28   dt  38
dko 43   dko 57   dko 41   nc  33   Cr  39   tz  49   nc  28   tz  37
vz  43   nc  57   vz  41   dt  33   eW  39   vz  49   tz  28   Cr  35
dt  43   em  57   dt  40   tz  31   dko 39   em  49   Cr  27   vz  34
nc  42   Cr  57   med 40   dko 31   tz  37   Cr  49   dt  26   dko 34
tz  42   DQ  56   tz  40   b-r 31   dt  36   nc  48   DQ  25   nc  34
em  40   dt  56   em  39   Cr  31   med 36   dko 46   med 24   em  33
med 39   tz  55   DQ  38   DQ  30   b-r 34   eW  44   vz  22   med 33
eW  39   eW  52   eW  36   med 27   em  32   b-r 42   em  21   DQ  32
                                             
_Mia      Mil      NYK      Orl      Phl      Tor      Was         
DQ  45   em  56   vz  56   b-r 41   DQ  54   dko 46   nc  34      
tz  44   eW  53   med 51   med 41   b-r 54   dt  42   DQ  34      
nc  43   vz  52   b-r 48   eW  40   vz  52   Cr  42   eW  33      
vz  43   DQ  51   nc  48   DQ  40   nc  51   DQ  42   vz  33      
b-r 42   dt  50   tz  47   em  37   med 50   vz  41   dko 32      
Cr  42   med 49   dko 47   tz  37   dko 50   nc  41   Cr  31      
dt  42   tz  48   dt  47   dko 37   tz  48   eW  40   b-r 30      
dko 42   nc  47   Cr  46   dt  34   em  48   tz  40   tz  28      
eW  42   Cr  47   DQ  45   Cr  33   dt  46   b-r 39   dt  28      
em  41   dko 44   em  44   nc  33   Cr  44   em  38   med 28      
med 41   b-r 43   eW  42   vz  33   eW  38   med 38   em  20      
                                             
_Dal      Den      GSW      Hou      LAC      LAL      Mem      Min  
b-r 46   em  60   em  52   b-r 47   DQ  45   DQ  52   dt  47   em  53
dt  44   med 54   nc  50   med 39   eW  44   eW  45   tz  46   b-r 53
nc  43   b-r 54   dko 48   eW  36   med 44   tz  44   Cr  45   dko 49
DQ  42   Cr  53   dt  48   dko 36   Cr  43   med 43   eW  45   med 48
tz  41   tz  51   vz  47   dt  34   vz  43   em  43   DQ  45   Cr  48
med 41   vz  49   tz  47   Cr  32   dko 42   nc  42   em  44   dt  47
dko 41   dko 49   Cr  46   tz  31   dt  42   dt  41   med 44   nc  47
eW  40   DQ  48   b-r 45   vz  31   tz  41   dko 41   nc  43   vz  46
vz  40   dt  48   med 45   nc  31   nc  41   Cr  40   vz  43   tz  46
em  39   nc  48   eW  41   em  29   em  40   vz  39   dko 42   DQ  41
Cr  39   eW  45   DQ  37   DQ  25   b-r 38   b-r 36   b-r 25   eW  39
                                             
_NOP      OKC      Phx      Por      Sac      SAS      Uta         
DQ  48   b-r 50   dt  49   eW  39   em  49   em  36   DQ  41      
em  48   med 48   DQ  48   nc  33   Cr  47   eW  35   Cr  40      
Cr  46   tz  44   tz  48   dt  32   med 45   dko 33   eW  39      
eW  45   eW  44   med 48   tz  31   vz  43   nc  30   vz  39      
vz  45   dt  41   vz  47   dko 31   b-r 42   dt  28   nc  38      
tz  45   em  41   dko 47   Cr  29   nc  41   tz  28   dt  37      
dt  44   Cr  40   Cr  46   DQ  29   eW  41   DQ  27   tz  37      
med 43   vz  37   eW  46   vz  28   tz  41   Cr  27   dko 36      
nc  43   dko 37   nc  45   em  28   dko 39   b-r 26   med 34      
dko 41   DQ  35   em  45   b-r 27   DQ  39   med 24   em  32      
b-r 39   nc  33   b-r 40   med 21   dt  37   vz  24   b-r 31

UPDATE Nov.18 -- it's a rout!

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
medi   4.30   5.87   .65      vzro   5.73   7.11   .48
trzu   5.00   6.59   .50      LEBR   5.76   7.02   .43
DRKO   5.06   6.31   .54      IanL   5.77   7.21   .50
avgA   5.23   6.64   .50      EExp   5.78   7.09   .48
Crow   5.34   6.95   .46      EBPI   5.82   7.03   .44
dtka   5.36   6.79   .48      23re   6.19   7.76   .31
KPel   5.40   7.15   .41      emin   6.57   7.87   .43
ChKl   5.49   6.77   .52      DQin   7.07   8.81   .26
ncs.   5.59   7.24   .41      eWin   7.08   8.37   .20
vegas  5.66   6.99   .47      NuFi   7.33   9.52   .24

[mediocre]

Thanks for updating daily, Mike!

I've been helped a lot by combined losing streaks of 31 games between CHA, WAS, DET, POR, and SAS.

[Mike G]

Welcome!
You have the current best guess (or tied) for Bos, Cha, Chi, Mia, NYK, Orl, Was; GSW, Hou, and OKC.
Within 1 of best on Den, Mem, NOP, SAS, Uta.
Worst on Cle! near worst with Atl, Ind, Phx.

I don't update every day unless things change abruptly. The SOS factors have mostly stabilized by now, but a blowout -- or several -- can scramble things overnight.
Seems you have gotten benefit from all of them this week.

[Mike G]

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
medi   3.86   5.30   .71      EExp   5.53   6.83   .53
trzu   4.97   6.46   .55     vegas   5.57   6.80   .52
DRKO   4.99   6.44   .56      ncs.   5.68   7.44   .41
avgA   5.16   6.55   .54      LEBR   5.75   7.11   .46
Crow   5.17   6.87   .50      EBPI   5.87   7.02   .47
ChKl   5.22   6.50   .57      23re   6.19   7.77   .36
dtka   5.26   6.83   .50      emin   6.45   7.73   .46
KPel   5.30   7.15   .45      DQin   6.98   8.67   .30
vzro   5.43   6.99   .51      eWin   7.23   8.47   .23
IanL   5.48   6.82   .56      NuFi   7.58   9.54   .26

UPDATE Nov.21 -- mediocre's lead drops from 1.11 to .43

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
medi   4.22   5.45   .70      LEBR   5.46   7.16   .46
trzu   4.65   6.37   .57      ncs.   5.53   7.42   .42
dtka   4.95   6.64   .53      EExp   5.56   6.87   .53
DRKO   4.96   6.48   .56      EBPI   5.69   6.85   .50
avgA   5.00   6.50   .55      IanL   5.80   7.14   .53
Crow   5.14   6.86   .50      emin   6.29   7.57   .48
KPel   5.24   7.01   .48      23re   6.33   7.85   .35
ChKl   5.29   6.73   .55      DQin   6.65   8.59   .31
vzro   5.38   6.97   .51      eWin   6.94   8.47   .23
vegas  5.44   6.74   .53      NuFi   7.28   9.48   .27

UPDATE Nov.23

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
medi   4.66   5.96   .66      vzro   5.79   7.73   .44
trzu   4.89   6.91   .52      EBPI   5.81   7.36   .46
avgA   5.30   7.08   .50      ncs.   5.86   8.08   .36
dtka   5.37   7.22   .48      LEBR   5.90   7.67   .41
DRKO   5.42   7.10   .49      IanL   6.15   7.32   .52
ChKl   5.56   7.20   .51      emin   6.60   7.97   .45
KPel   5.61   7.63   .42      23re   6.64   8.41   .29
vegas  5.65   7.12   .50      DQin   6.86   9.05   .28
Crow   5.66   7.58   .43      eWin   7.18   8.74   .23
EExp   5.68   7.27   .50      NuFi   7.50   9.90   .24

[nbacouchside]

My RMSE and r-squared looking embarrassingly bad at the moment. Yikes.

[Mike G]

On Nov. 13, mediocre was 1.18 behind the leader in MAE, and 6 days later they were 1.11 in front of the pack.
This is pretty remarkable over the history of this contest, and part of this is that medi had a lot of "extreme" guesses -- highest or lowest among us -- and they quickly shifted from mostly bad to mostly good guesses.

Their r^2 dominance seems to have preceded their MAE and RMSE leads by a few days. So maybe it's a good predictor, in some sense.

[Mike G]

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.   avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err   rmse   r^2
medi   4.76   6.36   .62      ncs.   5.86   8.50   .30
trzu   5.22   7.33   .47      EBPI   5.91   7.68   .42
avgA   5.35   7.47   .45      vzro   5.93   8.13   .40
dtka   5.52   7.66   .42      IanL   6.08   7.43   .51
ChKl   5.54   7.28   .50      LEBR   6.08   7.95   .37
KPel   5.62   8.01   .36      23re   6.49   8.62   .26
DRKO   5.63   7.44   .45      emin   6.51   8.36   .41
vegas  5.70   7.44   .46      DQin   6.86   9.31   .25
Crow   5.75   7.97   .38      eWin   7.31   8.91   .21
EExp   5.75   7.54   .47      NuFi   7.67  10.33   .20

UPDATE Nov.28

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.   avg err  rmse   r^2      .   avg err  rmse   r^2
medi   4.79   6.4   .63     vegas   5.95   7.6   .46
trzu   5.36   7.4   .48      EExp   6.03   7.7   .46
avgA   5.50   7.5   .46      EBPI   6.13   7.8   .43
DRKO   5.60   7.4   .48      LEBR   6.16   8.0   .39
dtka   5.66   7.7   .43      IanL   6.41   7.7   .49
vzro   5.76   8.0   .42      emin   6.59   8.4   .42
KPel   5.77   8.1   .38      23re   6.65   8.7   .29
Crow   5.78   8.0   .40      DQin   7.03   9.3   .26
ChKl   5.85   7.6   .48      eWin   7.50   9.2   .20
ncs.   5.93   8.4   .33      NuFi   7.72  10.4   .20

Nov.29

Code: Select all

Atl       Bos      Brk      Cha      Chi      Cle      Det      Ind
DQ  46   med 60   nc  45   em  36   DQ  42   med 53   eW  35   b-r 43
b-r 44   b-r 59   b-r 45   eW  36   nc  40   DQ  51   nc  28   eW  39
Cr  44   vz  59   Cr  42   vz  33   vz  39   dt  50   tz  28   dt  38
vz  43   nc  57   vz  41   nc  33   Cr  39   tz  49   Cr  27   tz  37
dt  43   em  57   dt  40   dt  33   eW  39   vz  49   dt  26   Cr  35
nc  42   Cr  57   med 40   tz  31   tz  37   em  49   DQ  25   vz  34
tz  42   DQ  56   tz  40   Cr  31   dt  36   Cr  49   med 24   nc  34
em  40   dt  56   em  39   DQ  30   med 36   nc  48   b-r 24   em  33
med 39   tz  55   DQ  38   b-r 27   em  32   b-r 44   vz  22   med 33
eW  39   eW  52   eW  36   med 27   b-r 30   eW  44   em  21   DQ  32
                                             
Mia       Mil      NYK      Orl      Phl      Tor      Was          
DQ  45   em  56   vz  56   b-r 50   b-r 57   dt  42   nc  34      
tz  44   eW  53   med 51   med 41   DQ  54   Cr  42   DQ  34      
nc  43   vz  52   b-r 48   eW  40   vz  52   DQ  42   eW  33      
b-r 43   DQ  51   nc  48   DQ  40   nc  51   vz  41   vz  33      
vz  43   dt  50   tz  47   em  37   med 50   nc  41   Cr  31      
dt  42   med 49   dt  47   tz  37   tz  48   eW  40   tz  28      
Cr  42   b-r 48   Cr  46   dt  34   em  48   b-r 40   dt  28      
eW  42   tz  48   DQ  45   Cr  33   dt  46   tz  40   med 28      
em  41   nc  47   em  44   nc  33   Cr  44   em  38   b-r 25      
med 41   Cr  47   eW  42   vz  33   eW  38   med 38   em  20      
                                             
Dal       Den      GSW      Hou      LAC      LAL      Mem      Min  
dt  44   em  60   em  52   b-r 46   DQ  45   DQ  52   dt  47   b-r 56
b-r 44   med 54   nc  50   med 39   eW  44   eW  45   tz  46   em  53
nc  43   Cr  53   dt  48   eW  36   med 44   tz  44   Cr  45   med 48
DQ  42   tz  51   vz  47   dt  34   Cr  43   med 43   eW  45   Cr  48
tz  41   vz  49   tz  46   Cr  32   vz  43   em  43   DQ  45   dt  47
med 41   b-r 49   Cr  46   tz  31   dt  42   nc  42   em  44   nc  47
eW  40   DQ  48   med 45   vz  31   tz  41   dt  41   med 44   vz  46
vz  40   dt  48   b-r 44   nc  31   b-r 41   Cr  40   nc  43   tz  46
em  39   nc  48   eW  41   em  29   nc  41   b-r 39   vz  43   DQ  41
Cr  39   eW  45   DQ  37   DQ  25   em  40   vz  39   b-r 24   eW  39
                                             
NOP       OKC      Phx      Por      Sac      SAS      Uta        
DQ  48   b-r 53   dt  49   eW  39   em  49   em  36   DQ  41      
em  48   med 48   DQ  48   nc  33   Cr  47   eW  35   Cr  40      
Cr  46   tz  44   tz  48   dt  32   med 45   nc  30   eW  39      
eW  45   eW  44   med 48   tz  31   vz  43   dt  28   vz  39      
vz  45   dt  41   vz  47   Cr  29   b-r 43   tz  28   nc  38      
tz  45   em  41   Cr  46   DQ  29   nc  41   DQ  27   dt  37      
dt  44   Cr  40   eW  46   vz  28   eW  41   Cr  27   tz  37      
med 43   vz  37   nc  45   em  28   tz  41   med 24   med 34      
nc  43   DQ  35   em  45   b-r 26   DQ  39   vz  24   em  32      
b-r 42   nc  33   b-r 44   med 21   dt  37   b-r 22   b-r 28      

[mediocre]

I don't think this is the right thread, but I had a few data questions:

1) What is the best public source of raw play-by-play data?
2a) Is there any public play-by-play source that also has shot location and/or closest defender data?
2b) Or is there a public play-by-play source that has expected eFG%?

[Mike G]

I don't know any of these answers, but:
pbp is a well known abbreviation, saving many hyphens.

[Mike G]

mediocre's lead over the #2 (trzu) hit 1.11 on Nov. 20; dipped to .23 in the next 2 days; and has bobbed around in the .50-.80 range since.

Code: Select all

.   avg err   rmse   r^2    .    avg err  rmse   r^2
medi   4.50   5.9   .68      Crow   5.80   7.6   .45
avgA   5.13   7.0   .53      EBPI   5.83   7.3   .50
trzu   5.14   6.9   .55      ncs.   5.84   8.1   .38
dtka   5.47   7.3   .50      IanL   6.08   7.2   .55
vegas  5.50   7.1   .52      emin   6.08   7.8   .49
vzro   5.50   7.6   .47      LEBR   6.15   7.8   .42
ChKl   5.53   7.1   .53      23re   6.28   8.2   .37
DRKO   5.66   7.3   .50      DQin   6.86   8.9   .31
KPel   5.68   7.7   .44      eWin   7.08   8.8   .27
EExp   5.72   7.1   .53      NuFi   7.32   9.8   .26

UPDATE Dec.7 -- the field averages .17 worse than yesterday.

Code: Select all

.  avg err   rmse   r^2      .   avg err  rmse   r^2
medi   4.57   5.9   .68      KPel   5.97   7.8   .44
trzu   5.41   7.0   .55      ncs.   6.04   8.1   .39
avgA   5.42   7.1   .53      Crow   6.11   7.7   .45
vegas  5.51   7.1   .53      IanL   6.13   7.2   .55
dtka   5.61   7.3   .51      emin   6.35   7.9   .48
EExp   5.68   7.2   .54      LEBR   6.46   7.9   .43
ChKl   5.71   7.2   .53      23re   6.53   8.3   .37
vzro   5.75   7.7   .47      DQin   6.95   9.0   .31
EBPI   5.93   7.3   .51      eWin   7.21   8.9   .26
DRKO   5.95   7.3   .50      NuFi   7.25   9.7   .28

The separation of #1 and #2 is greater than from #2 to #14 !

UPDATE Dec.8 -- Even with medi in our midst, the self-submitted now avg .18 worse than the outsiders.

Code: Select all

.   avg err  rmse   r^2      .   avg err  rmse   r^2
medi   4.71   6.0   .67      vzro   6.07   7.9   .45
trzu   5.53   7.1   .53      KPel   6.14   7.9   .42
vegas  5.58   7.2   .52      ncs.   6.17   8.2   .37
ChKl   5.61   7.1   .54      Crow   6.34   7.9   .42
EExp   5.65   7.2   .53      emin   6.53   8.1   .46
avgA   5.65   7.3   .51      23re   6.58   8.4   .36
dtka   5.91   7.4   .49      LEBR   6.62   8.0   .41
EBPI   5.93   7.3   .50      DQin   6.99   9.1   .30
DRKO   5.96   7.4   .49      eWin   7.28   9.0   .25
IanL   6.05   7.2   .55      NuFi   7.33   9.8   .27

UPDATE Dec.9 -- The whole field averages .40 worse than yesterday and worst of the season.

Code: Select all

.   avg err  rmse   r^2      .   avg err  rmse   r^2
medi   5.02   6.4   .65      KPel   6.48   8.4   .40
EExp   5.87   7.7   .50      vzro   6.50   8.4   .42
ChKl   5.87   7.6   .52      ncs.   6.62   8.7   .35
vegas  5.91   7.7   .50      Crow   6.72   8.4   .40
trzu   6.08   7.7   .50      emin   6.79   8.5   .44
avgA   6.13   7.8   .48      23re   6.90   8.9   .34
IanL   6.27   7.6   .53      LEBR   7.04   8.5   .38
dtka   6.37   8.0   .46      DQin   7.47   9.6   .28
EBPI   6.39   7.9   .48      eWin   7.73   9.5   .23
DRKO   6.46   8.0   .46      NuFi   7.77  10.3   .25

UPDATE Dec.12 -- more mayhem

Code: Select all

.   avg err  rmse   r^2     .   avg err   rmse   r^2
medi   4.95   6.5   .66      vzro   6.62   8.6   .42
EExp   5.90   7.7   .52      KPel   6.70   8.7   .39
ChKl   5.91   7.6   .54      DRKO   6.74   8.2   .45
vegas  5.96   7.8   .51      Crow   6.75   8.6   .40
IanL   6.14   7.6   .55      ncs.   6.83   9.0   .35
trzu   6.23   7.8   .50      23re   7.13   9.1   .34
avgA   6.26   8.0   .49      LEBR   7.26   8.7   .39
dtka   6.58   8.2   .45      DQin   7.68   9.7   .29
EBPI   6.60   8.1   .47      eWin   7.87   9.7   .24
emin   6.62   8.5   .46      NuFi   7.89  10.4   .25

[Mike G]

Update on how teams are looking compared to how we expected them to.
Ranked by difference between our (APBR) guess avg and the current b-r.com projection.

Code: Select all

over   tm   AvgA   b-r       over    tm   AvgA   b-r
15.8  Hou   31.9   47.7     -18.8   Mem   44.7   25.9
14.4  Orl   36.3   50.7     -13.3   Uta   37.4   24.1
13.8  OKC   40.3   54.1      -8.5   Was   29.8   21.3
11.6  Ind   35.0   46.6      -8.3   SAS   28.7   20.4
8.8   Phl   47.9   56.7      -7.5   Det   26.1   18.6
8.3   Min   46.0   54.3      -5.1   Cle   49.3   44.2
6.1   Brk   39.9   46.0      -4.9   Chi   37.7   32.8
5.6   Dal   41.0   46.6      -4.9   Phx   46.9   42.0
3.6   LAC   42.6   46.2      -4.8   Cha   32.3   27.5
2.9   Bos   56.5   59.4      -3.8   Por   30.1   26.3
1.7   LAL   43.2   44.9      -3.4   Tor   40.4   37.0
1.1   Sac   42.5   43.6      -2.9   GSW   45.8   42.9
0.4   Mia   42.4   42.8      -2.5   NOP   45.2   42.7
.                            -2.0   Atl   42.0   40.0
.                            -1.8   Mil   50.3   48.5
.                            -0.8   Den   50.7   49.9
.                            -0.8   NYK   47.2   46.4

When any of the top 10 overachievers wins a game, everyone's error is dinged.
Same for the bottom 10 losing; or (Chi, Was, Por) only one of us may be happy.

[Crow]

Pistons, Wizards and Spurs not only very bad but 3 of 5 worst versus are expectations.


Cavs with major under-performance, need review. I'll look for it, maybe do it.

Haven't followed Nets over-performance.

[Mike G]

After 19 games, the Nets looked like an all-improved team.

Code: Select all

eW+   per36 rates    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.58   Lonnie Walker .626   23.8   4.3   2.2   1.37 LAL .564   16.3   3.0   1.4    .63
.53   Cam Thomas    .555   26.3   4.3   2.1   1.70     .556   20.7   3.5   2.4    .95
.42   Mikal Bridges .580   22.1   6.3   3.3   1.49     .579   19.5   4.5   2.8   1.22
.33  Dorian F-Smith .617   12.0   6.2   1.4    .53     .525    8.6   5.8   1.5    .29
.20   Royce O'Neale .549    8.7   6.4   3.4    .52     .535    9.0   5.7   3.5    .38

.15   Tr. Watford   .587   15.7   9.0   3.6   1.09 Por .615   12.7   7.4   3.2    .75
.12   Nic Claxton   .668   17.3  11.3   1.6   1.75     .677   16.2  11.1   1.9   1.58
.12   Dennis Smith  .477   10.2   5.9   5.7    .74 Cha .469    9.6   4.1   5.2    .51
.06   Day'R Sharpe  .582   13.5  13.9   1.4   1.23     .572   13.4  12.4   1.9   1.18
.00   Ben Simmons   .513    6.3  12.0   6.2    .77     .552    8.8   8.5   6.8    .80

eW+   per36 rates    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.00   S Dinwiddie   .556   15.4   4.5   6.0   1.01     .567   16.8   3.7   5.8   1.05
-.08  Cam Johnson   .576   17.2   7.1   3.0   1.17     .609   19.2   5.6   1.9   1.33

These guys are all going 14+ mpg. I don't know who they lost, and rookies aren't doing much.
Basically from about 4 avg-or-better players to about 8 ?

Cavs' "improved" also data from a week ago:

Code: Select all

eW+   per36 rates    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484       Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.43   Max Strus     .573   13.9   5.6   3.4   .83  Mia .553   13.4   4.4   2.4    .57
.12   Evan Mobley   .596   16.9  11.5   2.6  1.51      .581   17.1  10.2   2.6   1.46
.10   Caris LeVert  .500   15.0   4.3   3.4   .84      .539   13.8   4.9   3.9    .78
.04   Isaac Okoro   .573   10.3   5.3   2.1   .50      .604   10.9   4.3   1.6    .45
-.04  Do. Mitchell  .564   26.1   5.4   4.3  2.04      .606   29.7   4.6   3.8   2.12

-.07  Damian Jones  .500    5.1   6.6   1.6  -.11  Uta .736   10.9   8.8    .9    .60
-.08  Georges Niang .534   11.6   6.2   1.5   .48  Phl .607   14.6   4.6   1.5    .60
-.09  Jarrett Allen .702   18.6   9.8   2.3  1.44      .658   17.3  11.7   1.6   1.58
-.14  Dean Wade     .476    4.3   7.1   1.2   .06      .546    7.8   6.4   1.3    .36
-.18  Sam Merrill   .480    9.0   2.7   2.2   .05      .543   14.0   5.7   2.5   1.24
-.55  Da. Garland   .555   19.5   2.9   5.2   .89      .578   22.2   2.9   6.8   1.45

Garland has def. picked up recently; Strus appears to have cooled.