2025 Finals : Ind Pacers - OKC Thunder

[Mike G]

For their top 12 players, four available summary stats, in which BPM has informed PER, WS/48, and eWins/480 to account for strength of competition in each previous series.
https://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic. ... 734#p43733
For each player, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round stats, plus total going into the Finals.

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. Oklahoma City Thunder                 Indiana Pacers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander             Tyrese Haliburton           
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
35   6.4   26.0   .276   2.60      35   3.7   21.4   .186   2.17
38  11.6   32.2   .352   3.16      33   4.5   22.4   .222   1.78
36   6.9   30.0   .267   2.95      37   7.7   25.1   .231   2.38
37   8.9   30.0   .307   2.96      35   5.5   23.1   .214   2.14
Jalen Williams                      Pascal Siakam            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
34   7.6   27.0   .310   2.44      34   1.3   19.1   .162   1.63
36   4.5   20.7   .187   1.90      30   2.8   20.3   .167   1.69
34   5.6   25.2   .224   2.37      36   4.5   23.5   .194   1.97
35   5.6   23.6   .228   2.18      34   3.0   21.2   .176   1.78
Chet Holmgren                       Myles Turner            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
29   7.7   27.2   .348   2.54      32   2.5   19.4   .182   1.50
31   2.2   21.2   .209   1.94      30   4.0   22.0   .198   1.80
28   5.4   26.7   .257   2.38      29  -0.1   14.7   .101    .89
30   4.5   24.3   .258   2.22      30   2.0   18.5   .157   1.37
Luguentz Dort                       Andrew Nembhard            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
30  -2.9   10.6   .166    .65      32   2.8   18.4   .176   1.46
25  -2.7   11.9   .101    .65      33   4.2   18.2   .170   1.30
30  -1.6   10.1   .100    .34      34  -2.0   10.8   .054    .48
28  -2.4   11.0   .118    .55      33   1.4   15.4   .128   1.04
Isaiah Hartenstein                  Obi Toppin            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
24   6.3   24.9   .322   2.13      15   2.5   17.9   .155    .95
27   2.9   22.1   .265   1.80      17   1.5   18.5   .141   1.34
20   0.1   18.9   .176   1.51      19  -2.1   15.4   .091   1.13
24   3.0   22.0   .256   1.80      17   0.3   17.0   .125   1.14
Alex Caruso                         Aaron Nesmith            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
21  12.5   25.4   .351   1.96      30   3.1   18.7   .203   1.31
23   6.2   19.7   .227   1.46      29   3.3   19.0   .198   1.48
23   0.3   14.9   .182    .64      28   1.8   16.0   .139   1.07
23   5.8   19.5   .241   1.32      29   2.7   17.8   .178   1.28
Cason Wallace                       T.J. McConnell            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
21   0.4   13.0   .208    .79      18   3.2   23.8   .214   1.80
21   3.5   16.8   .190   1.09      16  -0.4   17.5   .117   1.19
26   2.1   13.6   .141    .54      16  -1.5   16.3   .055   1.30
22   2.3   14.8   .177    .83      16   0.4   19.2   .127   1.43
Aaron Wiggins                       Bennedict Mathurin          
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
14   1.5   21.5   .202   1.66      14  -3.5   14.6   .070    .84
14   3.8   19.2   .175   1.54      17   0.4   19.5   .179   1.16
9   -6.9    6.5   .028    .07      14   1.4   21.8   .239   1.59
13   0.7   16.9   .148   1.23      15  -0.4   18.9   .168   1.22
Isaiah Joe                          Ben Sheppard            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
16   7.9   22.8   .293   1.49       9  -5.2   6.6   .056    -.20
8    3.4   18.4   .217   1.24      12  -4.9   7.4   .049     .08
10   5.1   21.9   .223   1.77      16  -0.6   8.5   .109     .08
11   5.6   21.1   .248   1.49      12  -2.9   7.8   .079     .02
Jaylin Williams                     Thomas Bryant            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
7    1.7   15.1   .198   1.27      10  -2.3   10.3   .102    .15
11   0.3   14.3   .188    .94      10  -1.7   13.2   .131    .61
5  -13.0   -1.3  -.198   -.05       6  -3.1   13.2   .121    .51
8   -1.8   11.6   .120    .84       8  -2.3   12.2   .118    .42
Kenrich Williams                    Jarace Walker            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
4   -5.4   15.1   .059   1.86      13  -0.1   11.4   .107    .51
3   -9.5   8.4   -.022    .72       6 -16.1   -2.7  -.264   -.17
9    4.2   20.3   .242   1.31       4   1.6   14.3   .091    .50
5   -1.1   16.3   .140   1.28       7  -3.9    8.3   .009    .33
Ajay Mitchell                      Tony Bradley            
mpg  BPM   PER   WS/48   e480     mpg   BPM   PER   WS/48   e480
4   -4.1   11.3   .158    .92       1  14.8   31.3   .526   1.99
3    0.1   21.1   .182   1.65       2  -6.4    1.9  -.031   -.15
5    2.4   21.1   .186   1.20       6  -5.6    9.6   .109    .09
4   -0.1   18.5   .177   1.27       3  -3.9   10.0   .119    .22

Arranged by approximate "position", OKC looks better most of the way.

Here's the same progression for the whole team. I've added a faux SRS which is simply 4.2*BPM -- expected margin vs avg team.

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. OKC                                      . Ind
opp   BPM   PER   WS/48  e480    srs      opp   BPM   PER   WS/48  e480   srs
Mem   4.7   21.6  .266   1.84   19.7      Mil   1.7   18.1  .165   1.36   7.3
Den   3.8   20.6  .216   1.73   16.1      Cle   1.8   18.1  .156   1.33   7.5
Min   3.0   20.1  .193   1.56   12.6      NYK   1.3   17.2  .138   1.23   5.5

avg   3.8   20.8  .225   1.71   16.1      avg   1.6   17.8  .153   1.31   6.7

Both teams are in decline! And these are adjusted to strength of competition.
In their latest series, OKC was about at their season proficiency; Pacers remain well above theirs.

[Mike G]

Pacers 1 - 0 Thunder
111 - 110
Pythagorean wins .53 - .47 , eWins .52 - .48

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.20   Shai G-A       OKC   39  .559   34.2   4.4   2.4   2.4   3.3   .0   2.42
.12   Pascal Siakam  Ind   35  .528   18.2   9.5   2.7    .0   1.1  1.0   1.61
.11   Luguentz Dort  OKC   37  .750   16.3   3.7    .8   3.4    .0  2.0   1.37
.09   Obi Toppin     Ind   26  .944   29.9   6.1   2.3    .0   4.2   .0   1.72
.08  Is. Hartenstein OKC   17  .692   19.3  17.0    .0   1.7    .0   .0   2.23

.08  Tyr. Haliburton Ind   39  .538   12.2   8.5   4.8    .0   2.9   .9    .95
.08  Jalen Williams  OKC   36  .405   13.5   3.8   5.1    .9    .0   .0   1.02
.07   Alex Caruso    OKC   29  .524   12.3   6.8   2.0   3.1   2.1  2.4   1.11
.06  T.J. McConnell  Ind   17  .750   21.1   1.8   6.9   5.9   6.3   .0   1.61
.06   Myles Turner   Ind   28  .625   20.4  10.7    .0    .0   8.2  3.9    .96

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05  Andrew Nembhard Ind   33  .519   14.2   4.0   5.7    .0   2.3   .0    .76
.02   Aaron Nesmith  Ind   31  .500   10.6  12.9   1.0    .0   6.1  1.2    .34
.01   Be. Mathurin   Ind   16  .357    7.9   5.9   3.7    .0   2.2  2.1    .39
-.00  Chet Holmgren  OKC   24  .300    5.9   8.6    .0    .0   2.7  1.5   -.06
-.02  Cason Wallace  OKC   34  .333    4.4   2.0    .9    .9    .0  1.1   -.28

shooting : Ind .600 - .500 OKC
rebounds: Ind 56 - 39 OKC
turnovers: OKC 7 - 25 Ind
https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... otals.html

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. Ind     min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . OKC    min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Ha'burton 39   10.9   .096   -0.7    .95      Shai     39   27.6   .167   10.5   2.48
Siakam    35   19.8   .199    6.3   1.55      Dort     37   21.4   .241   12.0   1.22
Nembhard  33   10.6   .135    1.4    .77      JDub     36   13.1   .053   -0.9    .96
Nesmith   31    2.1  -.086   -3.6    .37      Wallace  34    3.9  -.033   -5.8   -.29
Turner    28   13.4   .021   -1.7   1.03      Caruso   29   18.2   .181    5.8   1.18

Toppin    26   20.2   .202   10.7   1.69      Holmgren 24    1.7  -.134  -10.0    .03
McConnell 17   16.2   .134    5.3   1.66   Hartenstein 17   27.3   .336    5.3   2.06
Mathurin  16    9.4   .093   -2.0    .42      Joe      11   15.5   .155    2.3    .30
Sheppard   9    6.3   .167    1.7    .24      Wiggins  10    2.2  -.210   -7.8   -.95
Bryant     8   17.9   .341    8.4   1.12      Mitchell  5     .8  -.172  -13.9    .45

.totals  240   12.7   .110   2.07   1.03    . totals  240   15.4   .095   2.16    .97

I cannot explain these crazy totals. Double/triple- checked everything.

EDIT: Adding up the single-game BPM*min in the box score, its Ind 2.36 - 2.12 OKC
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 50OKC.html

Quarterly summary:

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Indiana                          Oklahoma City
Q  TSA  Reb  TO   Pts   TS%     TSA  Reb  TO   Pts   TS%
1   18   10   9   20   .559      29   11   3   29   .497
2   22   18  10   25   .581      30   11   1   28   .472
3   25   13   2   31   .626      25   11   1   28   .560
4   27   15   3   35   .646      25    6   1   25   .506

[Crow]

Thunder out done on ts% in every quarter, outrebounded in 3.

TO game wasn't enough.

[Mike G]

Out-turnovered by 18, Pacers broke the record of 15 by a team that wins a playoff game, I have read.

Pacers had their highest TO%, ORb% and 3PAr of the postseason, 2nd highest TRb%.
It would also rank as their worst TO% in the season, and top 10 in the others.

It was OKC's best TO% of the playoffs and worst TRb% .

[Mike G]

Finals Game 1 was Haliburton's 3rd-worst (of 17) playoff games this year in TO%, Ast%, ORtg, and BPM. And most minutes in a non-overtime game.
Siakam had his best ORb% of these playoffs, about 3.5 times his avg.
Turner with his best ORb%, 3rd best TRb%; 2nd worst TO% and 3rd worst ORtg.
Nesmith had double his avg DRb% and best TRb%; 2nd worst ORtg, GmSc, and BPM
Obi Toppin! had his most minutes, best eFG% and TS%, 2nd best BPM game

[Mike G]

Pacers have 5 of the 10 biggest comebacks in this postseason.

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Opp   G   down   Final      Hali
Mil   5    20   119-118   layup @ 1.4
Cle   2    20   120-119   3 @ 1.1
Cle   5    19   114-105   
NYK   1    17   138-135   2@ 0.0 + OT
OKC   1    15   111-110   2 @ 0.3

If they get behind 17+ in game 1, they don't win it.

[Mike G]

Thunder 1 - 1 Pacers
avg score 116.5 - 109.0
Pyth wins 1.42 - .58 , eWins 1.21 - .79

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.48   Shai G-A       OKC   38  .590   34.2   4.9   4.7   3.2   2.1   .5   3.03
.17   Pascal Siakam  Ind   32  .507   15.4   9.7   3.2    .0   1.7  1.7   1.31
.16   Alex Caruso    OKC   28  .660   21.1   5.8   1.7   1.8   2.1  1.2   1.37
.15  Jalen Williams  OKC   35  .456   14.7   4.8   5.2   1.0   1.1   .0   1.03
.15  T.J. McConnell  Ind   18  .769   22.7   3.9   7.9   3.1   3.0   .0   2.06

.14  Tyr. Haliburton Ind   37  .596   14.3   6.5   4.9   1.1   4.1  1.5    .94
.13  Is. Hartenstein OKC   20  .632   11.1  15.3   3.2   1.7   1.0   .0   1.61
.10  Andrew Nembhard Ind   33  .532   11.6   4.5   4.6   1.8   1.7   .0    .74
.10   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   15  .700   27.3   4.6   1.0   2.2   3.7   .0   1.53
.09   Luguentz Dort  OKC   32  .692   11.7   3.6   1.0   2.8    .0  1.2    .69

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Myles Turner   Ind   28  .596   18.9   8.6   2.2    .0   6.1  2.0    .77
.06   Obi Toppin     Ind   23  .588   13.9   7.7   2.5    .8   3.1   .0    .63
.05   Chet Holmgren  OKC   26  .477   11.9   8.6    .6    .0   2.3  1.4    .49
.05   Aaron Nesmith  Ind   29  .545   12.9  10.3    .5    .0   3.3   .6    .44
.02   Be. Mathurin   Ind   19  .543   14.5   4.5   2.2    .0   2.8   .9    .30

.00   Ben Sheppard   Ind   11  .750   10.1   4.6    .0   1.6   1.5  1.5    .05
-.00  Thomas Bryant  Ind   10  .750   11.6   1.7    .0    .0    .0  1.7   -.08
-.01  Isaiah Joe     OKC    9  .583   13.1   2.0    .0    .0   2.1   .0   -.14
-.01  Cason Wallace  OKC   28  .385    4.3   3.3   1.2   1.9    .0  1.3   -.04

shooting : Ind .581 - .559 OKC
rebounds: Ind 45.5 - 41.0
turnovers: OKC 10.5 - 20.0 Ind

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. OKC   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Ind   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai     76   31.2   .282   13.2   3.03    Haliburton 73   13.0   .031    1.2    .94
JDub     70   14.3   .106   -0.6   1.03      Nembhard 65   13.1   .101    2.3    .74
Dort     63   13.5   .179    5.7    .69      Siakam   64   17.9   .131    3.0   1.31
Caruso   56   19.2   .211    4.3   1.37      Nesmith  57    6.4  -.066   -2.8    .44
Wallace  56    7.1   .043   -2.9   -.04      Turner   55   13.2  -.026   -0.9    .77

Holmgren 52    9.2   .005   -5.6    .49      Toppin   45   10.7   .006    1.7    .63
Ha'stein 39   21.1   .260    5.2   1.61      Mathurin 38   11.5   .053   -2.6    .30
Wiggins  30   20.5   .149    6.1   1.53     McConnell 35   25.4   .261   12.2   2.06
Joe      17    8.3  -.021   -6.5   -.14      Sheppard 22    8.3   .062    1.1    .05
KWill     8   14.9   .060    4.5   1.03      Bryant   19    7.5   .099   -2.3   -.08

. OKC   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Ind   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Mitchell  7   17.6   .199   -0.1   1.36      Furphy    4    -.6   .038   -8.4   -.75
Jones     2    2.0   .041   -5.4  -1.18      Johnson   3   14.0   .265   -2.6   1.74
JWill     2   39.5   .250   23.8   7.58                     
Dieng     2    1.4  -.007   -6.0  -1.18                     

.totals  480  16.8   .148   3.01   1.21    . totals  480   12.9   .058   1.17    .79

From G1 to G2, the teams' avg/total PER jumped dramatically; WS/48 less so (still over .100); and tBPM dropped a bit, likely due to some garbage minutes at the end.

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G     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
1    14.1   .102   2.12   1.00
1+2  14.9   .103   2.09   1.00

2    15.7   .104   2.06   1.00

Series numbers are extracted by subtracting, e.g. prior PER*min from current PER*min, dividing by series minutes.
Line 3 above is just (2*Line2 - Line1)

[DSMok1]

The minutes weighted average BPM for a playoff game should be exactly equal to the minutes weighted average of those players regular season BPMs.

So if the average BPM was slightly lower in game two that indicates a few more minutes for slightly lower regular season BPM players.

[Mike G]

Exactly that happened. Pacers put Furphy in with 4 min. left, and their starters soon were pulled; OKC unloaded right at 2:00.
If the game 1 totalBPM (2.12) is assumed before these last minutes, then the G2 'extracted' 48-min tBPM (2.06) is reached by:
- 1 minute at -0.50 tBPM or
- 2 minutes at 0.80 tBPM or
- 3 minutes at 1.25 tBPM
etc.

I have tried writing to b-r.com about some of the anomalies in team PER and WS, but their reply form seems to be broken.
"The captcha is incorrect", and that's all I get after carefully explaining the issues.

For example, Hou and GSW went 7 games with each team totaling 728 points. At that time, I recorded:

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tm     PER   WS/48   BPM
GSW   14.3   .094   1.49
Hou   15.1   .111   1.42

My minutes-weighted total WS/48 and BPM agreed with those posted at b-r.com
Regardless of whether these over- or under-value the teams, they surely should be equal to one another.

[DSMok1]

I'm wondering if there is a minutes weighting vs. Possession weighting discrepancy in adding up the 7 games. I can't remember how that's done at the moment.

In other words... Do we weight by game or by minute or by possession?

[Mike G]

BPM (and eWins) are both designed to match up with the point differential in a series, and I would think WinShares should be similar. I have assumed wrongly.
PER does its thing and is merely normalized to a league avg of 15.0, regardless of opponent performance or series scoring totals.

I tend to weight player stats by their minutes, and teams by the game. Damn the overtimes; full speed ahead.

[DQuinn1575]

I don't think they even do per-100-possessions by per-possession.
A player moving from a high-paced team to a low-paced team, for example, does not show a season (or 2-season) total per100 based on his estimated possessions with each team, but rather to his minutes in each place.

BPM (and eWins) are both designed to match up with the point differential in a series, and I would think WinShares should be similar. I have assumed wrongly.
PER does its thing and is merely normalized to a league avg of 15.0, regardless of opponent performance or series scoring totals.

I tend to weight player stats by their minutes, and teams by the game. Damn the overtimes; full speed ahead.

A little behind this curve, and a long time since I worked thru PER, Win Shares, & BPM, but pretty sure WinShares is not set up to match any totals - unlike PER for example, which always sets to 15.0
I don't know why in the HOU/GSW series that HOU BPM = 1.4, unless it is (1) HCA. but that would be wrong, as HOU had it for series, let alone value , (2) adjusted for opponent regular season record, (3) some other reason
And pretty sure they are doing totals by series, so taking total stats by series, and calculating possessions off of that and not per game, and also using formulas, not exact possessions - that last part is at least some of the reason the Bartovik college BPMS differ from Sports-Reference.

Random thoughts reading this, not sure if it helps.

[Mike G]

Pacers 2 - 1 Thunder
avg score : OKC 113.3 - 111.3 Ind
Pyth wins 1.68 - 1.32 , eWins 1.59 - 1.41

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eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.57   Shai G-A       OKC   39  .571   27.9   5.9   4.1   2.2   3.4  1.2   2.32
.35  Tyr. Haliburton Ind   36  .616   17.3   7.8   6.3   1.3   4.2  1.3   1.56
.35   Pascal Siakam  Ind   32  .545   17.9   9.2   3.4    .7   1.2  1.5   1.73
.23  Jalen Williams  OKC   36  .492   16.9   5.4   4.2   1.0   2.3   .0   1.04
.23  T.J. McConnell  Ind   17  .652   20.6   3.5   8.1   5.2   3.4   .0   2.19

.22   Be. Mathurin   Ind   20  .687   28.2   5.3   1.8    .0   2.3  1.1   1.77
.21   Alex Caruso    OKC   29  .661   16.9   5.8   2.4   2.0   1.7   .8   1.13
.17   Chet Holmgren  OKC   29  .494   14.0   9.9   1.1    .4   1.9   .9    .97
.14   Luguentz Dort  OKC   33  .714   13.3   3.9    .7   1.9    .0   .7    .66
.11  Is. Hartenstein OKC   19  .640    9.8  12.2   2.0   1.8   1.9   .0    .95

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09   Myles Turner   Ind   28  .526   14.1   6.8   1.8    .4   4.9  3.5    .51
.07   Obi Toppin     Ind   24  .560   11.4   7.8   1.9    .5   2.4   .9    .48
.07   Aaron Nesmith  Ind   26  .574   13.0   8.8    .4    .5   2.4   .9    .41
.06   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   13  .618   17.5   5.2   2.2   1.7   3.6   .0    .69
.05  Andrew Nembhard Ind   33  .559   10.7   4.7   3.3   1.1   2.3   .0    .26

.05   Isaiah Joe     OKC    7  .813   26.8   1.6    .0    .0   1.7   .0   1.04
-.00  Cason Wallace  OKC   27  .447    5.5   4.3   1.2   1.8   1.0  1.4   -.03
-.01  Ben Sheppard   Ind   13  .556    7.1   4.3    .0   2.4    .8   .8   -.07
-.02  Thomas Bryant  Ind    7  .750   10.4   1.5    .0    .0    .0  1.4   -.43

shooting : Ind .589 - .562 OKC
rebounds: Ind 42.3 - 41.3 OKC
turnovers: OKC 13.3 - 18.0 Ind

Code: Select all

. OKC   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Ind   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai    118   25.4   .176    8.3   2.32   Haliburton 109   17.4   .096    4.3   1.56
JDub    107   15.3   .088   -0.6   1.04     Nembhard  99    9.5   .056   -1.1    .26
Dort     99   12.5   .163    4.8    .66      Siakam   96   21.1   .190    5.0   1.73
Caruso   88   17.0   .196    5.3   1.13      Turner   85   11.1  -.037   -2.7    .51
Holmgren 86   13.2   .054   -2.0    .97      Nesmith  79    7.5   .002   -2.8    .41

Wallace  81    8.1   .041   -1.5   -.03      Toppin   73   10.4   .017   -0.2    .48
Ha'stein 58   15.6   .157    2.2    .95      Mathurin 60   23.9   .226    5.6   1.77
Wiggins  40   14.0   .075    1.9    .69     McConnell 50   28.3   .268   14.7   2.19
Joe      21   16.2   .133    2.0   1.04      Sheppard 40    8.7   .064    0.1   -.07
KWill    10    8.0  -.065   -1.1    .51      Bryant   22    5.0   .098   -4.4   -.43

. OKC   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Ind   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Mitchell  7   18.7   .189   -0.1   1.29      Furphy    4    -.6   .038   -8.4   -.86
JWill     3   24.7   .058   15.4   5.70      Johnson   3   14.0   .265   -2.6   2.02
Jones     2    2.0   .041   -5.4  -1.26                     
Dieng     2    1.4  -.007   -6.0  -1.26                     

.totals 720   15.6   .121   2.52   1.06    . totals  720   14.6   .090   1.81    .94

After 2 games, Shai was equal to the top 3 Pacers in eWins.
Now he's less than next 2 and merely = Haliburton + McConnell

[Mike G]

History says the Pacers are in control of the series now; in the 41 previous NBA Finals that were tied at a game apiece, the Game 3 winner went on to hoist the trophy 33 times — an 80.5% clip.

Down 2-1, OKC is considered by b-r.com to be 79% likely to win 3 of the next 4 -- or 3/3.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html

Given their regular season SRS, OKC 12.7 - 1.68 Ind, this predicts an 82% chance OKC wins a given game.
In the postseason, it's about OKC 13.4 - 6.9 Ind, or 70% chance of an OKC win in the next game.

In the first assumption, chances that OKC wins the next 3 are .82^3 = 55%. Each of the other 3 win paths are 10%, so 85% likely they "hoist the trophy".
With the playoff SRS, it's 34% they win in 6 games and 31% they win in 7 : total 65%.

Perhaps they've added postseason games to regular season to come up with 79% ?
I don't recall the source for the above quote; but 'history' may be off by about 60%.

[Mike G]

Thunder 2 - 2 Pacers
avg score 112.8 - 109.5
Pyth wins 2.38 - 1.62 , eWins 2.19 - 1.81

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.79   Shai G-A       OKC   40  .580   29.4   5.4   3.1   2.3   3.2  1.2   2.41
.55   Pascal Siakam  Ind   33  .540   18.2   9.1   3.8   2.0   1.2  1.4   2.02
.43  Tyr. Haliburton Ind   37  .597   17.1   6.3   6.3   1.5   4.5  1.0   1.41
.37   Alex Caruso    OKC   30  .702   20.3   5.5   1.9   3.0   2.0   .9   1.52
.36  Jalen Williams  OKC   36  .514   19.6   6.2   3.9    .8   2.9   .0   1.22

.32   Chet Holmgren  OKC   31  .514   14.1  12.2   1.1    .6   1.7   .9   1.26
.25  T.J. McConnell  Ind   17  .613   18.3   3.1   7.0   3.9   3.1   .0   1.74
.25   Be. Mathurin   Ind   19  .684   26.8   5.2   1.5    .0   2.4   .9   1.59
.19   Obi Toppin     Ind   25  .577   14.1   8.2   1.7    .7   1.8  1.0    .90
.13  Is. Hartenstein OKC   20  .581    7.6  12.6   2.8   1.3   2.0   .0    .80

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.12   Luguentz Dort  OKC   33  .750   12.6   4.0    .5   1.7    .3   .6    .46
.09   Myles Turner   Ind   29  .510   13.6   5.7   1.9    .3   4.0  2.6    .37
.08   Aaron Nesmith  Ind   27  .527   11.1   9.5    .8    .7   2.1   .7    .37
.04   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   12  .524   13.1   4.5   2.5   2.1   3.1   .0    .42
.03  Andrew Nembhard Ind   34  .558   10.6   4.0   3.0   1.4   2.9   .3    .11

.03   Isaiah Joe     OKC    7  .722   19.1   2.7    .0   1.2   1.4   .0    .53
.02 Kenrich Williams OKC    5  .333    3.3  11.6   4.0    .0   3.1  1.5    .40
-.02  Thomas Bryant  Ind    6  .750   10.4   1.5    .0    .0    .0  1.4   -.53
-.03  Ben Sheppard   Ind   13  .650    8.5   3.3    .0   1.9   1.3   .6   -.30
-.05  Cason Wallace  OKC   25  .396    4.6   4.5   1.7   1.5   1.3  1.1   -.25

shooting : Ind .576 - .564 OKC
rebounds: OKC 41.8 - 40.0 Ind
turnovers: OKC 14.0 - 17.5 Ind

Code: Select all

. OKC    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Ind   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai     158   25.5   .195    8.4   2.41   Haliburton 146   16.4   .062    3.6   1.41
JDub     143   16.7   .105   -0.2   1.22     Nembhard 134    8.5   .022   -1.6    .11
Dort     131   11.0   .155    3.8    .46      Siakam  131   21.8   .191    7.1   2.02
Holmgren 123   15.0   .115   -0.3   1.26      Turner  115    9.8  -.026   -3.2    .37
Caruso   118   20.4   .238    8.2   1.52      Nesmith 109    7.5   .016   -2.5    .37

Wallace   99    5.7   .011   -3.7   -.25      Toppin  101   13.4   .057    2.2    .90
Ha'stein  79   13.8   .137    1.8    .80     Mathurin  74   21.7   .205    4.3   1.59
Wiggins   48   11.8   .045    0.7    .42     McConnell 68   24.1   .197   10.0   1.74
Joe       26   14.1   .135    0.3    .53      Sheppard 52    7.3   .052   -1.0   -.30
KWill     21   11.1  -.001   -0.1    .40      Bryant   22    5.0   .098   -4.4   -.53

. OKC    min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Ind   min    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Mitchell   7   18.7   .189   -0.1   1.53      Furphy    4    -.6   .038   -8.4   -.96
JWill      3   24.7   .058   15.4   5.57      Johnson   3   14.0   .265   -2.6   1.72
Jones      2    2.0   .041   -5.4  -1.31                     
Dieng      2    1.4  -.007   -6.0  -1.31                     

. totals 960   15.8   .133   2.67   1.10    . totals  960   14.0   .079   1.69    .90

Team averages thru X games:

Code: Select all

shooting       
G    OKC    Ind
1   .500   .600
2   .559   .581
3   .562   .589
4   .564   .576
      
rebounds      
G    OKC    Ind
1   39.0   56.0
2   41.0   45.5
3   41.3   42.3
4   41.8   40.0
      
turnovers      
G    OKC    Ind
1    7.0   25.0
2   10.5   20.0
3   13.3   18.0
4   14.0   17.5

All categories have tightened since those wild G1 totals. Rebounding has flipped.