2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

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Mike G
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2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Wolves 1 - 0 Nuggets
106 - 99
Pythagorean Wins .71 - .29 , eWins .61 - .39

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.29  Anthony Edwards Min   42  .672   40.9   7.5   2.4   1.6    .9  1.7   3.28
.18   Nikola Jokić   Den   41  .552   29.3   7.9   7.8   1.9   6.3   .0   2.08
.12   Mike Conley    Min   31  .824   22.6   5.7  10.6   2.2   4.7   .0   1.89
.11   Rudy Gobert    Min   35  .500    5.5  16.6   2.8   1.9    .0  3.1   1.46
.09   Karl-A Towns   Min   31  .667   25.9   5.7   3.2    .0   1.2   .0   1.46

.09   Naz Reid       Min   24  .696   27.4   6.8   3.8   2.6   4.2   .0   1.85
.09  Michael Porter  Den   40  .625   18.0   6.0    .9   2.0   1.8   .9   1.04
.04   Aaron Gordon   Den   33  .600   10.1   3.6   6.5   1.6   1.1   .0    .63
.04   Jamal Murray   Den   34  .548   16.8   1.2   4.2    .0   1.1   .0    .54
.03  Reggie Jackson  Den   13  .833   13.4   7.9   2.3   1.7    .0   .0   1.01

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.01  Justin Holiday  Den   16  .500    4.5  11.0    .0   1.4    .0   .0    .34
.00  Christian Braun Den   19  .700   11.0   3.8    .0    .0    .0   .0    .12
-.00  Kentavious C-P Den   38  .750    6.0   2.1   2.8   1.4   1.0  1.0   -.02
-.01  Kyle Anderson  Min   12  1.00    7.6   6.3   2.3    .0   2.6   .0   -.35
-.02 Jaden McDaniels Min   39  .000     .0   9.2    .8    .0    .9   .9   -.27
-.06  Ni A-Walker    Min   23  .417    6.0    .0    .0    .0   4.3   .0  -1.18
shooting : Min .602 - .582 Den
rebounds: Min 42 - 34 Den
turnovers: Den 12 - 14 Min

https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... _2024.html

One-game numbers:

Code: Select all

. Min      PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Den     PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Edwards   40.0   .410   16.3   3.28      Jokić    21.6   .051    4.2   2.08
McDaniels -1.9  -.086   -8.9   -.27      Porter   17.2   .084    4.0   1.04
Gobert    16.0   .201    5.7   1.46      KCP       9.4   .070    1.7   -.02
Towns     21.2   .208    4.8   1.46      Murray   11.0  -.004   -4.3    .54
Conley    21.9   .210    8.5   1.89      Gordon   14.5   .135    2.8    .63
Reid      23.7   .132    8.8   1.85      Braun    11.9   .088   -1.3    .12
Nic A-W   -4.8  -.206  -14.6  -1.18      Holiday  10.3   .061   -0.6    .34
Anderson   2.6   .039   -8.0   -.35      Jackson  23.4   .245    8.7   1.01
Morris    -9.1  -.292  -16.8  -1.05      Watson  -11.5  -.407  -26.3    .57
. Min     16.4   .131   2.74   1.21      . Den    14.3   .068   1.22    .79
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

First round summary stats:

Code: Select all

. Min      mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484      . Den    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484
Edwards    40   27.6   .281   10.6   2.66      Jokić    40   32.3   .318   14.3   2.88
McDaniels  36   14.4   .171    0.9    .69      Gordon   40   15.9   .135    1.4    .89
Gobert     35   20.5   .236    3.7   1.56      Murray   40   14.4   .023   -0.2   1.25
Conley     32   11.7   .108   -0.7    .89      Porter   39   20.8   .191    6.4   1.40
A-Walker   31   15.0   .190    3.9    .86      KCP      36    6.5   .030   -3.5   -.03
Towns      28   24.0   .278    6.2   2.37      Braun    13    6.6   .017   -7.5    .03
Reid       18   13.2   .160   -0.5    .73      Watson   12    5.4  -.004   -4.2   -.15
Anderson    8   12.0   .137   -2.4    .73      Jackson  10    3.4  -.050   -7.8    .05
Morris      7    2.5  -.020   -7.7    .08      Holiday   7     .5  -.079   -7.4   -.25
. totals  234   17.7   .194    3.2   1.36    . totals  240   15.9   .115    2.0   1.07

Code: Select all

. OKC       mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e484     . Dal    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai G-A    38   21.8   .216    4.9   2.58     Dončić   43   21.8   .153    4.8   2.67
Je Williams 37   20.4   .214    5.1   2.19     Irving   40   24.1   .234    7.8   2.25
Dort        35   12.5   .222    3.0    .65   Washington 35   11.2   .078   -0.3    .45
Holmgren    32   17.3   .186    3.3   1.82     Jones    29   12.0   .108   -0.6    .30
Giddey      27   15.4   .184    3.3   1.53     Lively   20   22.3   .230    4.1   1.44
Wallace     18   10.9   .196    3.3    .13     Kleber   19   13.3   .152    3.8    .39
Wiggins     15   18.5   .256    6.3   1.20     Gafford  18   14.2   .112   -3.2    .66
Joe         14   10.2   .121    0.7    .45     Green    17   15.0   .190    2.9    .41
Ji Williams 11   16.3   .262    9.5    .94     Exum      9     .1  -.135  -11.6   -.32
Hayward      8    7.5   .171    1.8    .06     Hardaway  4    9.1   .068   -2.3    .20
K Williams   4    -.8  -.038   -9.7   -.22                     
. totals   238   15.9   .199    3.7   1.40     totals   234   16.8   .147   2.3   1.20
Mike G
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Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Wolves 2 - 0 Nuggets
avg score 106.0 - 89.5
Pyth wins 1.81 - .19 , eWins 1.40 - .60

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.54  Anthony Edwards Min   40  .667   42.3   4.4   4.9   1.7   2.3   .9   3.26
.35   Karl-A Towns   Min   33  .734   33.5   9.4   2.3    .7   1.7  1.1   2.51
.33   Nikola Jokić   Den   40  .533   22.5  11.7   7.9   1.2   5.7   .5   1.99
.18   Mike Conley    Min   32  .643   13.5   4.3   9.7   2.1   2.3   .6   1.35
.16   Naz Reid       Min   27  .588   21.9   5.9   2.0   1.5   3.1  2.5   1.47

.14   Aaron Gordon   Den   33  .644   16.7   4.1   4.4   1.4   1.2   .0   1.00
.10   Rudy Gobert    Min   18  .500    6.0  14.4   3.3   1.2    .0  3.2   1.32
.09   Kyle Anderson  Min   19  .444    7.6  10.3   8.3   2.1   2.7   .9   1.17
.07  Michael Porter  Den   40  .518   12.2   5.4   1.4   1.6   3.1   .9    .41
.05   Jamal Murray   Den   35  .362    9.8   7.7   3.1    .9   2.9   .5    .38

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04  Justin Holiday  Den   19  .800   12.8   6.0    .8    .7    .9   .0    .46
.02   Ni A-Walker    Min   27  .633   13.0   3.9    .7    .0   2.5  1.9    .22
.01  Reggie Jackson  Den   12  .444    7.9   6.4   2.4   1.0   1.4   .0    .23
.01  Christian Braun Den   15  .643    7.7   4.2    .0    .9    .0  1.0    .11
-.03 Jaden McDaniels Min   33  .167    1.4   5.9   2.3   1.3   1.1  1.1   -.20
-.05 Kentavious C-P  Den   33  .500    4.4   2.9   1.7   1.4   1.2   .6   -.34
shooting : Min .592 - .506 Den
rebounds: 42.0 - 42.0
turnovers: Min 13.0 - 15.5 Den

Code: Select all

. Min     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Den   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Edwards   40   33.0   .347   12.1   3.26      Porter  40   10.3  -.015   -1.6    .41
McDaniels 33     .8  -.016   -7.3   -.20      Jokić   40   21.6   .080    5.1   1.99
Towns     33   27.3   .330    8.6   2.51      Murray  35    4.4  -.150   -8.7    .38
Conley    32   16.5   .205    4.4   1.35      Gordon  33   18.7   .147    6.3   1.00
Reid      27   18.7   .110    5.2   1.47      KCP     33    6.1   .011   -3.5   -.34
A-Walker  27    9.3   .063   -0.8    .22      Holiday 19   15.7   .172    5.5    .46
Anderson  19   17.5   .194    5.3   1.17      Braun   15   14.2   .103    1.7    .11
Gobert    18   16.0   .276    5.7   1.32      Jackson 12   10.4   .001   -0.8    .23
Morris     6   -3.7  -.176  -14.6   -.63      Watson   8   -5.6  -.274  -16.2   -.06
totals   232   17.5   .185    3.8   1.40     totals  234   12.1   .022   -0.4    .60
Mike G
Posts: 6144
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Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Thunder 1 - 0 Mavs
117 - 95
Pyth wins .94 - .06 , eWins .72 - .28

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.22   Shai G-A       OKC   37  .569   34.5   8.4   9.9   1.0   2.4  2.0   2.82
.12   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   23  .889   40.8   6.8   3.3   1.4   3.6  1.5   2.43
.12   Chet Holmgren  OKC   31  .576   25.1   7.9   1.4   2.3   1.5  3.6   1.78
.11  Daniel Gafford  Dal   27  .500   19.2  15.1   1.2    .0   1.5  6.9   1.96
.09  Jaylin Williams OKC   17  .786   31.0  16.2   4.3    .0    .0   .0   2.55

.09  Jalen Williams  OKC   35  .500   19.5   5.0   6.0    .0   1.3  1.1   1.22
.06   Kyrie Irving   Dal   37  .645   22.5   1.0   2.7   2.1   4.2  1.0    .79
.06   Luka Dončić    Dal   41  .396   12.5   5.4   7.3   1.9   4.8   .0    .67
.04   Isaiah Joe     OKC   15  .750   18.4   6.1   4.9   2.1    .0   .0   1.32
.04  P.J. Washington Dal   26  .714   15.7   8.5    .0   1.5   1.5   .0    .67

eWin   per36 rates   tm   min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.04   Cason Wallace  OKC   22  .583   12.1   4.3   5.2   1.5    .0   .0    .79
.03   Josh Green     Dal   25  .611   15.1   5.4   3.7    .0   1.4   .0    .63
.02   Josh Giddey    OKC   17  .250    2.3  10.3   5.0    .0    .0  2.2    .62
.01   Derrick Jones  Dal   30  .700    9.7   2.5   2.2    .0   1.3  2.5    .21
-.01  Luguentz Dort  OKC   26  .350    7.6   5.4   1.6   2.8   5.2   .0   -.16

-.01  Dereck Lively  Dal   13  .333    3.1   9.8   2.2    .0   5.2   .0   -.38
-.02  Tim Hardaway   Dal   17  .200    1.3   3.8    .0    .0    .0   .0   -.49
shooting : OKC .568 - .492 Dal
rebounds: OKC 52 - 39 Dal
turnovers: OKC 11 - 16 Dal
Crow
Posts: 10536
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Crow »

McDaniels, -0.3, KCP -0.5.

87% of ewin split to top 8 combined players on Thunder and Mavs. Close to 95% in TWolves - Nuggets.

Other metrics may have somewhat different accounting but top players are still likely to be fairly nearly the full story.
Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Thunder 1 - 1 Mavs
avg score 113.5 - 107.0
Pyth wins 1.37 - .63 , eWins 1.19 - .81

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.49   Shai G-A       OKC   40  .590   30.4   9.9   7.3   1.0   2.0  1.8   2.97
.29   Luka Dončić    Dal   41  .522   19.8   7.0   6.4   2.0   2.8   .4   1.68
.22  P.J. Washington Dal   33  .765   22.9   9.4   2.0   1.5   1.8   .6   1.59
.19  Daniel Gafford  Dal   27  .547   18.9  12.1   1.9    .6   2.8  4.1   1.65
.16  Jalen Williams  OKC   37  .514   17.1   4.5   4.1    .5   1.1  1.0   1.07

.14   Chet Holmgren  OKC   34  .500   15.0   7.2   3.5   1.2   3.0  2.7   1.01
.14  Jaylin Williams OKC   16  .731   23.0  14.5   4.1    .0   1.2   .0   2.18
.12   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   22  .781   22.5   5.7   1.5    .9   1.8  1.6   1.31
.10   Kyrie Irving   Dal   40  .547   12.8   1.8   5.8   1.7   2.9  1.4    .59
.07   Josh Green     Dal   21  .733   17.7   4.1   3.0    .0    .9   .0    .81

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Cason Wallace  OKC   22  .591    9.3   4.8   2.9   2.6    .0   .0    .62
.05   Josh Giddey    OKC   14  .455   11.3   9.9   2.6    .0   1.5  1.4    .87
.03   Isaiah Joe     OKC   17  .722   12.9   4.1   1.9   1.1   1.1   .0    .42
.03   Tim Hardaway   Dal   18  .559   13.2   3.7    .9    .0    .0   .0    .37
.01   Luguentz Dort  OKC   30  .417    7.3   6.4   2.3   2.1   2.1   .0    .05

-.01  Dante Exum     Dal    8  .313    6.2   2.2   2.0    .0    .0   .0   -.25
-.01  Derrick Jones  Dal   29  .444    7.5   4.4   2.3    .0   1.3  1.3   -.07
-.01  Gordon Hayward OKC    6  .000     .0   5.6   2.5    .0    .0   .0   -.52
-.04  Dereck Lively  Dal   17  .200    2.1   8.0   1.9    .0   3.2  1.0   -.54
shooting : OKC .566 - .539 Dal
rebounds: OKC 46.5 - 41.5 Dal
turnovers: OKC 10.5 - 13.0 Dal

After 2 games:

Code: Select all

. OKC       mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal     Min   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai G-A    40   30.2   .318   12.5   2.97      Dončić    41   18.5   .063    7.7   1.68
Je Williams 37   14.7   .109    0.6   1.07      Irving    40   12.4   .040    2.6    .59
Holmgren    34   14.1   .059    0.1   1.01     Washington 33   22.3   .206    9.1   1.59
Dort        30    5.7   .008   -5.1    .05      Jones     29    5.9  -.025   -5.0   -.07
Wallace     22   15.3   .188    4.1    .62      Gafford   27   22.4   .136    3.4   1.65
Wiggins     22   21.6   .251    7.3   1.31      Green     21   18.1   .176    6.7    .81
Joe         17   13.8   .160    2.3    .42      Hardaway  18   14.3   .099   -1.3    .37
Ji Williams 16   25.5   .293   10.5   2.18      Lively    17   -4.0  -.221  -15.6   -.54
Giddey      14   10.0  -.023   -3.6    .87      Exum       8    -.4  -.158   -9.8   -.25
Hayward      6    1.1   .003   -7.9   -.52                     
. totals   236   16.6   .149    3.0   1.18     . totals  232   13.6   .053    1.4    .81
Crow
Posts: 10536
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Crow »

Mavs front court starters well ahead of Thunder counterparts so far.
Mike G
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Wolves 2 - 1 Nuggets
avg score 100.7 - 98.7
Pyth wins 1.70 - 1.30 , eWins 1.60 - 1.40

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.62   Nikola Jokić   Den   39  .554   24.4  13.1   8.2   1.7   4.8  1.3   2.51
.57  Anthony Edwards Min   39  .659   34.0   5.3   4.6   1.1   3.3  1.0   2.36
.40   Karl-A Towns   Min   33  .763   28.4   8.6   2.5    .4   2.3   .7   1.94
.26   Aaron Gordon   Den   33  .712   18.2   3.7   4.8   1.7    .8   .0   1.26
.22   Mike Conley    Min   31  .571   12.2   5.6   8.3   1.8   2.9   .4   1.12

.20   Jamal Murray   Den   36  .441   14.9   6.8   3.8   1.5   3.0   .3    .88
.19  Michael Porter  Den   37  .610   17.9   5.5   1.3   1.5   3.0   .7    .83
.15   Naz Reid       Min   24  .552   16.8   4.9   1.7   1.5   2.4  1.8    .96
.10   Rudy Gobert    Min   21  .500    6.1  11.0   2.3    .7    .0  1.8    .76
.09   Kyle Anderson  Min   17  .423    6.4   7.6   6.0   2.9   2.0   .6    .83

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05  Justin Holiday  Den   19  .786   12.9   4.9   1.1    .5    .6   .0    .43
.04  Reggie Jackson  Den   11  .500   11.9   8.0   1.8    .8   2.0   .0    .54
.02  Kentavious C-P  Den   34  .579    7.5   3.5   2.5   1.0    .8   .4    .11
.02  Christian Braun Den   16  .636    8.4   5.0    .0    .6    .0   .7    .17
.01  Jaden McDaniels Min   29  .326    4.3   6.0   1.6   1.4   1.3  1.7    .08

.01   Peyton Watson  Den    7  .000     .0  12.0    .0    .0    .0  2.7    .15
-.01  Nickeil A-W    Min   26  .595   10.8   2.8   1.2    .0   2.6  1.3   -.04
-.01  Monte Morris   Min    6  .300    5.4   1.7    .0   1.8    .0   .0   -.34
shooting : Min .575 - .554 Den
rebounds: Den 41.3 - 38.7 Min
turnovers: 14.0 - 14.0

Code: Select all

. Den   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jokić   39   24.7   .180    8.9   2.51      Edwards  39   25.5   .187    8.2   2.36
Porter  37   13.0   .079    0.5    .83      Towns    33   22.1   .220    7.1   1.94
Murray  36    9.6  -.034   -4.5    .88      Conley   31   14.3   .106    2.1   1.12
KC-P    34    8.7   .107   -1.9    .11     McDaniels 29    4.4  -.022   -4.9    .08
Gordon  33   19.8   .235    9.0   1.26      NA-W     26    6.5  -.016   -3.6   -.04
Holiday 19   13.4   .177    3.9    .43      Reid     24   15.4   .058    2.7    .96
Braun   16   12.1   .122    0.6    .17      Gobert   21   11.7   .142    0.4    .76
Jackson 11   11.8   .039   -2.8    .54      Anderson 17   15.8   .140    4.7    .83
Watson   7   -5.8  -.228  -16.2    .15      Morris    6   -1.0  -.180  -15.5   -.34
total  231   14.1   .104    1.5    .93      total   226   14.9   .103    2.0   1.06
mpg is minutes per team game, and totals indicate how many (short of 240) are in garbage minutes.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Mavs 2 - 1 Thunder
avg score : OKC 109.3 - 106.3 Dal
Pyth wins 1.77 - 1.23, eWins 1.64 - 1.36

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.69   Shai G-A       OKC   40  .578   29.8   9.2   6.5   1.0   3.0  2.7   2.73
.46   Luka Dončić    Dal   41  .515   20.0   9.5   5.8   2.0   3.2   .3   1.81
.36  P.J. Washington Dal   35  .680   23.9   8.1   1.9   1.0   1.1   .3   1.64
.26  Jalen Williams  OKC   37  .540   17.2   4.8   5.2    .3   1.8  1.0   1.13
.26  Daniel Gafford  Dal   25  .569   18.4  11.5   2.7    .5   2.6  3.4   1.67

.25   Chet Holmgren  OKC   34  .518   14.3   7.3   3.3   1.1   2.3  3.2   1.15
.24   Kyrie Irving   Dal   40  .586   16.4   2.8   6.0   1.5   3.3  1.2    .98
.13  Jaylin Williams OKC   15  .656   16.0  11.7   3.2    .7    .8   .0   1.43
.11   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   22  .674   16.8   5.4    .9   1.0   1.6  1.0    .81
.11   Isaiah Joe     OKC   18  .813   19.4   3.5   2.2   1.2   1.3   .0    .97

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08   Josh Giddey    OKC   14  .500   13.9   7.5   2.4    .0    .9   .9    .88
.07   Josh Green     Dal   19  .694   15.5   3.5   2.6    .5   1.2   .0    .58
.05   Tim Hardaway   Dal   17  .519   13.0   3.7   1.1    .6    .0   .0    .46
.03   Cason Wallace  OKC   19  .571    8.0   3.8   2.0   1.7    .0   .0    .29
-.00  Dereck Lively  Dal   20  .348    5.9   8.7   1.5    .0   2.3   .5   -.02

-.01  Luguentz Dort  OKC   33  .426    6.7   4.4   2.1   1.9   2.0   .4   -.04
-.01  Gordon Hayward OKC    5  .000     .0   7.2   1.7    .0    .0   .0   -.36
-.01  Dante Exum     Dal    7  .313    3.7   4.1   1.2    .0    .0   .0   -.31
-.05  Derrick Jones  Dal   31  .333    4.7   4.4   1.8    .7   1.6   .8   -.24
shooting : OKC .564 - .528 Dal
rebounds: OKC 44.7 - 43.7 Dal
turnovers: OKC 11.7 - 13.3 Dal

Code: Select all

. OKC      mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai G-A   40   27.9   .254   10.7   2.73      Dončić   41   18.4   .085    7.0   1.81
JeWilliams 37   14.8   .110    1.2   1.13      Irving   40   14.7   .086    4.5    .98
Holmgren   34   15.7   .100    1.7   1.15    Washington 35   21.1   .207    8.1   1.64
Dort       33    4.9   .000   -4.8   -.04      Jones    31    2.2  -.067   -6.9   -.24
Wiggins    22   16.0   .154    2.6    .81      Gafford  25   21.6   .157    5.0   1.67
Wallace    19   12.9   .147    2.0    .29      Lively   20    3.5  -.064   -9.6   -.02
Joe        18   18.7   .212    6.8    .97      Green    19   14.4   .148    4.3    .58
JiWilliams 15   19.9   .252    6.3   1.43      Hardaway 17   13.8   .089    0.5    .46
Giddey     14   12.5   .012   -1.7    .88      Exum      7    2.6  -.054   -7.7   -.31
Hayward     5    -.2  -.056   -9.5   -.36                  
. totals  237   15.8   .131   2.56   1.09     . totals 235   13.5   .073   1.79    .91
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Nuggets 2 - 2 Wolves
avg score 102.8 - 102.3
Pyth wins 2.06 - 1.94 , eWins 2.03 - 1.97

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.85  Anthony Edwards Min   41  .689   36.1   5.1   4.3   1.2   3.1   .9   2.53
.85   Nikola Jokić   Den   39  .569   26.8  12.0   7.5   2.1   4.6  1.2   2.60
.51   Aaron Gordon   Den   35  .802   23.4   4.7   4.8   1.5   1.1   .5   1.74
.43   Karl-A Towns   Min   34  .617   21.1   9.9   2.5    .6   1.9   .5   1.50
.31   Jamal Murray   Den   37  .469   15.5   6.5   4.6   1.7   3.0   .3   1.01

.30   Mike Conley    Min   32  .573   12.9   4.8   8.3   1.5   2.1   .3   1.14
.18   Naz Reid       Min   23  .608   17.3   5.5   1.3   1.1   1.8  1.4    .93
.15  Michael Porter  Den   36  .600   14.2   5.2   1.2   1.2   2.5   .8    .51
.14   Rudy Gobert    Min   25  .535    8.3  13.0   1.7    .4   1.9  1.5    .70
.08  Justin Holiday  Den   19  .762   14.6   5.0    .8    .4    .9   .0    .49

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07  Reggie Jackson  Den   10  .556   13.9   7.6   3.3    .7   2.2   .0    .79
.05  Christian Braun Den   18  .735   11.5   4.7    .4    .4    .0   .4    .35
.05   Kyle Anderson  Min   15  .393    4.7   6.6   4.9   2.2   1.7   .5    .43
.01  Kentavious C-P  Den   34  .500    6.0   3.1   2.6   1.1    .6   .8    .04
.00  Jaden McDaniels Min   31  .394    5.7   4.9   1.1   1.2   1.2  1.5   -.01
-.05  Nickeil A-W    Min   26  .482    7.6   3.2   1.8    .0   2.3  1.0   -.21
shooting : Den .581 - .571 Min
rebounds: Min 39.5 - 38.8 Den
turnovers: Min 13.3 - 13.5 Den

Code: Select all

. Den   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jokić   39   26.6   .195    8.6   2.60      Edwards  41   28.6   .230   11.0   2.53
Murray  37   11.6  -.010   -3.0   1.01      Towns    34   18.3   .147    3.3   1.50
Porter  36   10.7   .052   -1.4    .51      Conley   32   15.7   .134    3.5   1.14
Gordon  35   23.7   .281   10.9   1.74     McDaniels 31    5.8  -.011   -4.0   -.01
KC-Pope 34    7.9   .075   -2.1    .04     NA-Walker 26    4.2  -.063   -5.8   -.21
Holiday 19   13.3   .151    2.5    .49      Gobert   25   11.0   .076   -2.1    .70
Braun   18   13.8   .168    1.2    .35      Reid     23   16.8   .092    3.4    .93
Jackson 10   15.2   .075    0.4    .79      Anderson 15   13.4   .098    2.3    .43
Watson   5   -5.8  -.260  -16.2    .08      Morris    4   -1.0  -.201  -15.5   -.41
totals 233   15.2   .114    1.9   1.02    . totals  230   14.9   .095    1.7    .98
Crow
Posts: 10536
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Crow »

By EWins,
Gordon and the bench over Towns, Gobert and bench.

Jaden McDaniels, big rep, big contract, no apparent impact by this metric (right or wrong? Inadequate on defense). KCP either. NAW hurting.


McDaniels slightly negative on Darko projection, though has been rising over career. Where and when is the peak?
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

All these metrics have McDaniels around zero impact and his sidekick Nickeil well less than zero.
Same guys who -- thru 3 games, anyway -- had played Durant and Booker basically even.

Gordon and Porter have almost stopped rebounding, and R Jackson is their 2nd best rebounder in this series. AG is #2 scorer and passer.
The stats Really do not agree on Murray. He may be pretty good (eW), pretty bad, or by far the worst player in the rotation (WS). He's #3 in Sco, Reb, and Ast rates.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Thunder 2 - 2 Mavs
avg score 107.0 - 103.8
Pyth wins 2.40 - 1.60 , eWins 2.20 - 1.80

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.95   Shai G-A       OKC   41  .575   30.7   8.7   6.2   1.2   2.2  2.5   2.83
.57   Luka Dončić    Dal   41  .484   18.7   9.4   6.6   1.9   4.0   .4   1.66
.41  P.J. Washington Dal   37  .626   20.8   8.6   1.4    .7   1.6   .5   1.33
.38   Chet Holmgren  OKC   36  .570   15.5   7.6   2.5   1.1   1.7  3.3   1.28
.36  Jalen Williams  OKC   38  .479   15.1   5.7   5.4   1.2   1.8   .7   1.13

.34  Daniel Gafford  Dal   24  .566   18.1  11.6   2.2    .4   2.0  3.8   1.72
.25   Kyrie Irving   Dal   40  .541   13.7   2.3   6.5   1.1   2.7   .9    .76
.16  Jaylin Williams OKC   14  .583   12.7  12.9   4.6    .6    .7   .0   1.42
.10   Aaron Wiggins  OKC   20  .597   15.7   5.1    .8    .9   1.9   .9    .64
.09   Josh Giddey    OKC   13  .444   14.2   6.1   3.3    .7   2.3  1.4    .85

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08   Josh Green     Dal   17  .636   13.5   3.8   3.2    .9   1.0   .0    .57
.07   Isaiah Joe     OKC   17  .684   13.5   4.3   2.4   1.0   1.6   .0    .50
.06   Tim Hardaway   Dal   19  .550   12.3   4.0   1.3    .9    .5   .0    .39
.06   Dereck Lively  Dal   22  .365    6.7   8.5   1.9    .0   1.7  2.0    .31
.04   Luguentz Dort  OKC   35  .455    8.5   5.2   1.6   1.4   1.5   .5    .15

.04   Cason Wallace  OKC   19  .688    9.5   3.0   1.7   1.3    .5   .4    .24
.04   Derrick Jones  Dal   30  .424    8.4   4.2   1.7    .6   1.6  1.8    .14
.01   Dante Exum     Dal    7  .417    8.6   3.5   2.3    .0    .0   .0    .11
shooting : OKC .542 - .517 Dal
rebounds: OKC 44.8 - 44.5 Dal
turnovers: OKC 10.8 - 13.5 Dal

Code: Select all

. OKC     mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Dal    mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Shai G-A  41   28.6   .272   11.9   2.83      Dončić   41   15.4   .041    5.1   1.66
Williams  38   13.7   .088    0.8   1.13      Irving   40   12.1   .072    2.1    .76
Holmgren  36   17.7   .161    3.5   1.28    Washington 37   18.3   .151    5.8   1.33
Dort      35    6.8   .048   -3.5    .15      Jones    30    6.8  -.012   -3.1    .14
Wiggins   20   13.7   .107    0.5    .64      Gafford  24   21.7   .165    5.1   1.72
Wallace   19   12.4   .154    2.7    .24      Lively   22    7.8  -.002   -5.1    .31
Joe       17   12.9   .141    1.9    .50      Hardaway 19   12.3   .099    0.4    .39
oWilliams 14   18.8   .248    6.3   1.42      Green    17   13.3   .138    3.9    .57
Giddey    13    9.7  -.056   -2.1    .85      Exum      7    7.4   .032   -2.8    .11
Hayward    4    -.2  -.059   -9.5   -.28      .               
KWilliams  3    3.4   .006   -2.2    .30      .               
. totals 239   15.3   .133    2.6   1.10    . totals  236   13.2   .072    1.8    .90
Crow
Posts: 10536
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Crow »

Doncic with big playoff per game numbers but way below average on 3pt fg%, efg% and ts%.
Mike G
Posts: 6144
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2024 Playoffs. West rd. 2

Post by Mike G »

Nuggets 3 - 2 Wolves
avg score 104.6 - 101.2
Pyth wins 3.04 - 1.96 , eWins 2.77 - 2.23

Code: Select all

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
1.37  Nikola Jokić   Den   40  .610   29.4  11.3   8.2   2.1   3.7  1.1   3.31
.94  Anthony Edwards Min   41  .654   29.1   4.9   4.7   1.1   3.2   .7   2.19
.67   Aaron Gordon   Den   35  .737   21.5   6.4   4.8   1.5   1.4   .4   1.87
.57   Karl-A Towns   Min   35  .606   20.7   9.3   2.6    .8   2.0   .4   1.56
.35   Jamal Murray   Den   38  .480   15.4   5.5   4.3   1.6   2.8   .2    .88

.30   Rudy Gobert    Min   28  .641   11.4  12.7   1.9    .8   1.6  1.6   1.03
.28   Mike Conley    Min   25  .573   12.3   4.9   8.0   1.4   2.1   .3   1.06
.15   Naz Reid       Min   22  .567   15.0   5.4   1.0    .8   1.7  1.4    .64
.12  Michael Porter  Den   36  .545   12.0   5.9   1.2   1.0   2.4  1.0    .31
.10  Christian Braun Den   20  .660   11.3   5.3    .9    .6    .3   .9    .46

eWin   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.08  Reggie Jackson  Den   10  .619   15.5   6.5   2.6    .6   2.4   .0    .76
.07  Kentavious C-P  Den   34  .621    9.2   3.7   2.8   1.1    .9   .6    .20
.04  Justin Holiday  Den   18  .727   11.8   5.4    .9    .3   1.1   .0    .20
.02   Kyle Anderson  Min   15  .406    4.4   5.9   4.7   2.0   2.1   .4    .12
.00   Monte Morris   Min    6  .375    8.3   3.0   2.4    .9    .0   .0    .07

-.01  Peyton Watson  Den    4  .000     .0  11.2    .0    .0    .0  2.4   -.15
-.04  Nickeil A-W    Min   28  .513    9.0   3.0   2.3    .0   2.0  1.2   -.14
-.05 Jaden McDaniels Min   31  .417    6.8   4.8   1.5   1.2   1.7  1.6   -.14
shooting : Den .591 - .568 Min
rebounds: Den 38.6 - 38.2 Min
turnovers: Den 13.2 - 13.4 Min

Code: Select all

. Den   mpg   PER   WS/48   BPM   e480      . Min   mpg    PER   WS/48   BPM   e480
Jokić   40   31.1   .290   12.7   3.31      Edwards  41   24.6   .171    7.8   2.19
Murray  38   11.5   .009   -3.5    .88      Towns    35   18.4   .125    3.2   1.56
Porter  36    8.7   .028   -3.0    .31     McDaniels 31    6.4  -.026   -3.9   -.14
Gordon  35   23.9   .278    9.4   1.87      Ni. A-W  28    6.8  -.031   -3.4   -.14
Ke. C-P 34   10.0   .110    0.0    .20      Gobert   28   15.5   .125    1.1   1.03
Braun   20   14.2   .152    1.5    .46      Conley   25   15.7   .110    3.5   1.06
Holiday 18   10.4   .116    0.0    .20      Reid     22   13.9   .038    0.2    .64
Jackson 10   16.9   .098    0.9    .76      Anderson 15   11.9   .061    1.0    .12
Watson   4   -5.8  -.248  -16.2   -.15      Morris    6    8.7  -.056   -7.5    .07
totals 234   16.0   .132    2.3   1.11     . totals 232   14.8   .077    1.4    .89
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