APBRmetrics

DSmok1 mentioned preferring Value Over Average vs Over Replacement for a GOAT style list, I'd probably split the difference between the two, as I do think there's value to a career in being an average player (essentially a low end starter), but replacement probably overvalues longevity a bit too muc...

On the level of teams the '71-'73 Bucks were (relative to their competition, and especially '71/'72) a +12 or higher BPM doesn't necessitate a particularly low assessment for Oscar and crew. See the '16 Warriors with Steph at +11.9 and Dray at +5.5. Was Kareem really at his best those years, ehh, I'...

On 3pt 'luck' style adjustments - very useful at smaller samples imo, more middling at larger samples - it seems to be more prone to having the same players consistently show up as 'lucky' or 'unlucky' than something like FT luck adjustment. This to me would suggest it's capturing something that isn...

I brought up mid-term because that is what BPM is based off. A couple reasons why I personally don't use super long RAPM samples: -The matchup matrix gets more and more sparse, leading to less mathematical certainty (and folks rarely include certainty levels) -Plenty of players have played at signif...

Jokic's making his case, but BPM is 'just' an estimate of another stat that's generally preferred by most folks here (BPM is great and I greatly appreciate Daniel sharing his process here), and in that other stat (mid-term rapm), Jokic doesn't measure up *that* well to the top of the class. LeBron/K...

Voted for 20, in the order from the list (*=top 10): KAJ* Bird Kobe Wilt* Steph Duncan* DrJ KG* LeBron* Magic Jokic Jordan* K. Malone Mikan* Nowitzki Olajuwon* Shaq* CP3 Oscar Russell* Rough tiers on top 10 LeBron/Russell Duncan/KAJ KG/MJ/Shaq/Mikan/Wilt/Hakeem Magic my #11, who I'll put top 10 depe...

Presuming there's no Dejounte injury update or anything, I have no problem with a prediction coming in now.

Debating what to do with Kawhi injury updates, already had him down for missing a solid chunk, but confirming it does hurt more.

Though I do feel Lue is one of the best at getting something from nothing, so I don't expect a complete collapse either.

Whole numbers, no ties in conference. Last seasons wins + personal read on team direction (-2 to +2 variable range). May update closer to the regular season (obviously if there are any major injuries or the such), can I just edit this post for that? East Celtics 62 Knicks 58 Cavs 49 Bucks 48 Heat 47...

East: Celtics 57-25 Bucks 56-26 Cavs 49-33 Sixers 48-34 Knicks 44-38 Heat 41-41 Hawks 40-42 Nets 39-43 Raptors 38-44 Magic 37-45 Hornets 36-46 Pacers 33-49 Bulls 32-50 Pistons 21-61 Wizards 20-62 West: Nuggets 60-22 Wolves 53-29 Warriors 52-30 Kings 49-33 Pelicans 48-34 Suns 45-37 Grizzlies 44-38 La...

I use team level data (just wins/and MOV really) combined with a subjective* discrete variable that I assign based on which 'direction' I think the team is moving (getting worse, improving, staying the same). Really it only has the 3 inputs, I've played around with adding an 'in the playoffs' vs 'ou...

I'm down to be the first one entered here, so here we go. Same method/rules as usual (haven't added the playoffs/non-playoffs pull effect I discussed a bit in the past as I'm not sure how the play-in would effect it), no ties in conference. Eastern Conference Boston 56 Milwaukee 55 Philadelphia 52 B...

Been a minute since I've been on the board, but I appreciate the independent approach of your board Crow, a lot of consensus repeating from a lot of other sources. I haven't thought much past the the lotto projected guys. Also very high on Eason, so I like that. Why so low on Dyson Daniels? He and S...

Traditionally I've found teams and players to both stabilize pretty well by the quarter mark, so that makes sense to me. Obviously some outliers.

I'm hopeful we'll all catch those dummies in the end.

Thanks for keeping things updated!